Mini 1175: Iowa Mafia (Game Over!)

[Greymarble]

Huh, Hiplop is already practically confirmed scum.
And Earworm is his scumbuddy.
Now we just need to find the third one.

VOTE: Hiplop

P. Edit:
Ah, it's Archaist. Very nice.

[Greymarble]

@Archaist: I have no idea who you are. I was saying you're the third scum.

Hiplop is actually not scum because with 2 buddies in a pregame QT he would have figured out the confirmation process.
3 minutes is still a superfast response to the thread opening though...

And before y'all go "oh he knows there are 3 scum" I always make that assumption until other evidence presents itself.

Monk is already town because he's trying.

VOTE: Archaist

HEY FD YOU CAN SOLVE THAT PROBLEM BY SELF DAYVIGGING.

WHO IS SCUM?

[Greymarble]

We're not scum. You had better be town.
The newbieherdingwarz will be painful if you're not.

[Greymarble]

Thank you monk, but you're barking up the wrong nostril. Why not
VOTE: Earworm
Newbiescum can't resist making the "it's random" excuse for their random votes.

[Greymarble]

We're GreyICE and Llamarble.
I, llamarble, have made all the posts so far though the "newbiesscums make excuses when RVing" was Grey's observation.
FD's members are readily deducible from their avatar.

[Greymarble]

lolwut @ avatar vote

There's really no thing as a random vote IMO - if it were "random" you'd be using something akin to random.org, and if that's how you guys scumhunt here then I anticipate this being my last game. And if you're not using a randomizer, then I can assume you have a motive for your vote, whatever it may be. Sure, get into shittons of WIFOM trying to find a motive, so there's not much of a point in doing only that.

Now I know I'm new here, but monk explicitly saying "you're voting me since I'm new" is really really dumb. Pulling the newbie card is never good for yourself or for the game.

Also, that was legitimate excitement, it's always fun joining a new community. >_>

PEdit (stands for Preview edit, it means that another player posted inbetween you click "Post Reply" and posting the reply): Hydras are interesting because it offers the players an opportunity to bounce ideas off each other and learn from each other, as well as makes the game interesting. I've definitely seen scum hydras argue that "it was the other guy," but I've also seen town hydras do the same. Think of it this way, twice as many players = twice as many reads.

This hydra has been in two games before, both town:
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=17230
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=16467

and what the hell are hydras

Avatars make our lives easier because it's a great visual way to tell who made the post. Makes parsing things very easy. We all appreciate them.

Anyway, I've actually voted people for using tags on a different site to determine RVS votes, proclaiming that the vote is DEFINITELY random is a scum tell, although not a "100% reliable" one. Goal of RVS currently is to get a grip on players personalities, and to locate scummy people.

I actually have a mild town read on Monk for this post:

vote: Greymarble

confusing logic and

I don't know what else

That's a "scummy" thing to write, but it's exactly the sort of scummy thing to write that scum reviewing their own posts often don't write. Whereas town who are posting 'on the fly' often write exactly that sort of thing.

@bgg: Did you gain anything from mafia.exe?

PEdit2: By no means necessary, but both of these are public hydras.

[Greymarble]

I actually have a mild town read on Monk for this post:

vote: Greymarble

confusing logic and

I don't know what else

That's a "scummy" thing to write, but it's exactly the sort of scummy thing to write that scum reviewing their own posts often don't write. Whereas town who are posting 'on the fly' often write exactly that sort of thing.

What draws you to assume that monk would be the type of hyposcum to review posts before making them?

When I look at monk I see a player that is trying to hard to rationalize his first vote of the game, and doesn't seem interested in moving the game from RVS, and in fact seems to be actively trying to derail any attempt to push the game into serious discussion.

I'll discuss it with Llamarble, but at the moment I don't see it. By the by, most newbie scum review their posts. It's experienced scum who have the confidence and mental preparation to post on the fly.


@Peaf: Interesting. How do you view your interactions with other players in the thread? Do you follow their ideas, and are you influenced by them? Do you consider their arguments? How do you interact with others reasoning?

[Greymarble]

The point of the council is that if the three (5) of us do agree the town should probably be doing whatever it is we agree on.
This makes sense to me as we are a pretty skilled / experienced group.
Of course, this idea only works until one of us gets NKed, which does seem pretty likely.
And there's no guarantee we'll even end up agreeing.
I'll do some reading tomorrow.

[Greymarble]

FD are you going to actually contribute or are you just going to act insane and play god for a bit? You are not being helpful to the town doing this so why should we not vote you out?

So you're voting to lynch FD for... not playing as town in the right way?

TBF we did once lynch bgg for something similar... but he claimed VT at L-6, insisted on voting for obvtown, and then around page 20 asked "So whose the cop?" and started chattering about whether we had a cop or not.

Whose your reads on who is scum.

[Greymarble]

ISO #4, ISO #5, ISO #6.

Turn off the OMGUS, last wagon was a useful one, this crusade you'll have to carry the banner alone.

[Greymarble]

You know, I think the best thing to do about this council is wait for D2 and then start it. We need town players on it, not experienced players, IMO. We need to form a council which hopefully everyone will agree to. But that's quite impossible today.

This is worse than the already proposed council.
I would trust a council of worse players even less than I trust a council of 'better' players.
And if everyone agrees to it, scum agrees to it too. What's good for them isn't good for town.

Well that's rather the point. Our Hydra (me and Llama) and Zach are probably the two players FateGM will have the hardest time reading, and so on in a round. This puts the spotlight on the three of us, it becomes very difficult to lurk through the game. For instance, Zach is about due to weigh in on the going ons here.

For instance, if you flip scum, I'm in the interrogation room, bright lights, mirrors, everything. I don't think it's very likely, that's why I won't join in your lynch, but the possibility is there. So if there are scum in the Town Alliance, it's even less likely to be found out.

I strongly doubt FateGM is scum this game, and Zach is leaning town mildly.

I've only been in a handful of wins that don't involve a solid town alliance, either spoken or unspoken (the last game this hydra was inhad us, Duplicity (Gorilla), and Empking who were working together day 1. For instance, the town didn't lynch Silavor pretty much because we said not to. Even though we died night 1, the effect on the scumteam was completely devastating. Obviously not every game is going to quite go like that (that's the third best town performance I've ever been a part of) but it's a good example of how townies trusting each other and interacting can completely pigeonhole a scumteam.

[Greymarble]

*... it's even more likely for them to be found out.

[Greymarble]

Quick wictionary of our terms is here:
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?tit ... reviations

Some of those have fallen out of general use, but overall should be helpful.

[Greymarble]

@peat

: Fate and AlmasterGM (AGM). Now please stop scumplaining and start scumhunting. This is truly getting irritating. I get it, things are different here. I'm being understanding, but this is truly not helpful to anyone.

[Greymarble]

VOTE: Monk

My god will I sheep you here Fate.

Llama, if you're wondering, I'll explain in the QT when I'm off the phone, but his last post is probably all the explanation you need.

[Greymarble]

Or Fate can do it for me, w/e

[Greymarble]

player Greymarble estimated scumodds = 0
player Final Destination estimated scumodds = 0.216282
player Zachrulez estimated scumodds = 0.255075
player Twistedspoon estimated scumodds = 0.246989
player bgg1996 estimated scumodds = 0.247424
player mikemike778 estimated scumodds = 0.244957
player hiplop estimated scumodds = 0.248527
player Akira estimated scumodds = 0.27248
player Peaf estimated scumodds = 0.273016
player Kondi2424 estimated scumodds = 0.254551
player earworm estimated scumodds = 0.258316
player monk estimated scumodds = 0.234591
player Archaist estimated scumodds = 0.247794

Hrmph, I went and did all this "bgg attack on peaf feels nonbussy -> reduce odds of (Peaf + bgg) by 3%" calculation-stuff.
But I find twistedspoon scummier than his place here. I guess it's post by post vs holistic reading, but I tried to account for that.
Peaf is pretty scummy despite displaying I don't care what you think abrasiveness.
Monk reads pretty town to me (llamarble) in general just his ISO 17 is bad.
I just finished 1156 where I incorrectly had Akira as scum for awhile, but I can feel at least a small difference.
Anyway I'm caught up now so time to collect my thoughts together and make a post containing Useful Analysis.

[Greymarble]

Grey - why are you voting Monk when he reads pretty town to you ? Are you really going to follow FD blindly when you don't know their alignment ?

I didn't feel like I had found the pulse of this game yet, so I left our vote where Grey put it. But now I've sorted this sucker out some in my brain.
I like Emp so far; the TS scumread feels accurate and town motivated. I approve most of his points and reads.
I don't think TS and Hiplop are both scum though because of TS ISO 22.

UNVOTE: Monk
VOTE: TwistedSpoon
I think Emp would be a good third council member.
Not sure what Grey thinks about Empking or voting TS though.

TOWNALLIANCE:
Greymarble
FD (Proposing council, saying things that make sense to me)
Emp (TS attack, good reads & townlogic to back them)

Town:
Monk ("I don't know what else" admission of uncertainty. Response to pressure is to explain thought process and try to find scum. Feels forthright.)
Hiplop (See his ISO 4; What does scum care about tunneling other than to attack the tunneler?)
Archaist (scum don't often engage assertively with charismatic/influential players the way he did with FD.)

Weak town:
Earworm (Scumhunty but fakeable and I don't think I like the Monk-Akira dichotomy that he seems to be a fan of)
MikeMike (I was thinking he was scummy but ISO 7 gave me pause, along with 'we'll hold you councilfolks responsible for your votes')
Akira (I can see Akiratown's thought process. But I don' t like "other people did it too" and the perspective from which he discusses the council is iffy)

Bgg:
Bgg (If Akira & monk are both town as I am beginning to think then Bgg is likely scum on the Monkwagon.)

Scummy:
Zach (Questionable reaction to council. ISO 3 feels distancy from TS. Not much scumhunting.)
Peaf (There is Idon'tcarewatchyouthinkabrasiveness here but I don't feel earnestness and he's primarily interested in topical players)

Scum:
TwistedSpoon (You get your own post whee!)

[Greymarble]

sure, I'm not saying it shouldn't be seen as a weak scumtell (which it is at beast) but on it's own is a poor grounds for a lynch

'You shouldn't lynch me because the logic isn't overwhelming' is scumdefense.
(Town defense is to explain whatever it was and resume scumhunting, preferably with some indignance)

"Nice catch" @ Mikemike on Earworm but no further interest in either of them.

But I must stress the point that I'm not scum this game

Felt unnatural where it was posted.

RVS attack on Peaf that dissolves into townreadland (certainly possible from town but scum do this a lot).

Stated the "Bgg is scum for attacking Kondi over Peaf" thing twice, voting off it the second time.
And he supposedly suspects Bgg is distancing from Peaf right after saying he finds Peaf townish.

Akira's avatar-based-vote is a similar easy to attack but not actually really scummy thing he goes after.

[Greymarble]

Dammit no, TS is town.

Unvote

Lets hash this out in the QT.

[Greymarble]

Yeah, that was Grey telling me he strongly disagrees with my TS scumread.

[Greymarble]

Haven't heard from Grey, but I like this.
VOTE: Archaist

@Zach: We'll make sure we agree before allowing a lynch.
Beyond that there's not a lot we can do without dropping post rate significantly while waiting for agreement.

[Greymarble]

I'm still waiting for Grey's opinion of the Archaist wagon. I like it though.
If I have some time later this evening I'll get on and make an actual useful post.

[Greymarble]

I don't actually think that vote is too bad; Mikemike seemed scummy to me while I was reading through if I remember right.
I'm still waiting for Grey's input on Archaist.

[Greymarble]

UNVOTE: Archaist
I liked this wagon. It had many townreads on it. The chances there aren't scum on it are very slim now though. #Reevaluating.

[Greymarble]

OH MAN I FOUND ONE
VOTE: MIKEMIKE

[Greymarble]

Akira's 'I'mma leave the door open to attack these masons later if I get a chance' = :yuck:
Also scum who claim masons will usually get reamed by excess-of-claimed-town-power-syndrome.

Also Empking and GM are playing identically to my last game with them, and they were both town. But I don't think metas on hydras are so reliable.

More yuck trepidation.

Okay I think I can leave monk alone for today. I'm reconsidering the mason claim and it's not something scum would easily do.

But wait, later you say:

Isn't it a pretty good idea for scum to fakeclaim mason with their scumbuddy and be safe for the rest of the game?

BLATANT CONTRADICTION AHOY.

Now I'm not sure which of mikemike & akira are scum... PERHAPS BOTH?

Town reads:
mikemike - Same here. He's contributing to the scumhunt much more than some other players here.

I don't have any scumreads at the moment, which is pretty annoying. Archaist is null and I don't like how many votes he's got for nothing. I hate D1s.

Yup I'mma wait and let town lynch town, thereby leaving me sitting pretty d2 whee!

And Mikemike is scum because the entirety of his posting is logicpokes. He is not trying to be heard and there isn't engagement with the thread.
And his vote is parked on Akira over a minor and since half-resolved matter, which does not make townsense. I SMELL DA BUS.

I actually think you are probably town and will buy your claim

for now

but your posts and reads just seem erratic. I don't agree with your first paragraph above but assuming you actually thought that how did it translate into a town read ?

Yay more trepidation!

Zach - why do you feel better about Akira, still don't like the way he reacted to the council - all seemed a bit scummy to me and I'm keeping my vote there

for now.

Although he has a point here ...

I've got slight town

for now.

I'm still not sure what to think of his first post and all the QT stuff, but his few recent posts strike me as town reasoning.

... You two just can't help it can you.

[Greymarble]

@ Zach - Please don't replace. I'm going to make it ok, I promise.

What.

[Greymarble]

Could somebody unvote him so I'm not worried about a hammer while I'm working?
I think this wagon sucks and don't want my case to come too late.

[Greymarble]

I went and looked at the reasons people have for voting Hiplop and most of them are either not there at all or don't make sense.
FD thinks he's a Zachbuddy (despite IDUNKNOWMYASS towntell).
Empking wants to lynch him by association to TS. Actually I can kind of see this link.
Archaebob is voting him for no discernible reason.
Akira is like "I HAS SLIGHT TOWNREAD ON HIPLOP BUT WILL VOTE HIM FOR PRESSURE... AND NOW SUDDENLY I WANT HIM TO CLAIM AND DIE" (WTF).
Monk & TS actually give reasons I suppose.

Mostly what bothers me is how none of the first 4 actually pointed out anything that bothered them about his posting.
The associative tells that have been mentioned make sense to me, but reading Hiplop's ISO doesn't make me go WOO THIS GUY SCUM.

[Greymarble]

Hrmph, when did Mikemike join Akira's scumlist?
Akira + mikemike + bgg seems about right.
I need to figure which of Akira/mikemike is the better lynch individually, but Akira has outright inconsistencies and scumminesses all over.

[Greymarble]

I need to decide which of Akira/mikemike I want lynched today.
I have a feeling Akira may be obvscum but I need to put the time in to make sure.
If either flips scum I'm probably lynching the other one tomorrow, but we'll see what happens.

[Greymarble]

The scumteam: Twistedspoon, mike, and bob. Book it.

<3
Except I still think Akira should be in there somehow.

I unfortunately don't have a lot of time today, but I'll be on some later.

I actually logged in, read a bit, and got distracted by other stuff.

[Greymarble]

Twisted is town.

[Greymarble]

Darn I don't like that FD & Emp disagree. (As in it makes me less sure; I still think they're both likely town)

[Greymarble]

As for me lurking, that's not game related and I've been lowish participation for the last few days across the board.
I think Grey is waiting till D2 to get back into this one, so I've got to pick today's lynch.

[Greymarble]

Mikemike is still scum. Like very scum and I'd be happy to see the wagon switch though I guess deadline is like tonight or something.
And Archaebob could very well be scum also. I'm not thinking about associative tells at the moment though.
Zach could be scum.
VOTE: Akira
I get some serious red flags from some things he's done (especially his Hiplop 'pressure vote' -> claim demand).
There are a couple of urgh he could flip town things, but I think Twisted is a lot more likely to be town.
Would still prefer Mikemike lynch I think.

When precisely is deadline?

[Greymarble]

@ Zach - Please don't replace. I'm going to make it ok, I promise.

What.

Did you ever explain that?

[Greymarble]

Cool.
UNVOTE: Akira
VOTE: Mikemike

[Greymarble]

I'll be on more later today.
I need to read a lot more deeply.
When is the hour of the deadline?

[Greymarble]

FUCK.

Final Destination, you aren't fucking town at all, are you?

... What is this?
And I still want an explanation of how you were going to "make it ok."

@ Zach - Please don't replace. I'm going to make it ok, I promise.

What.

[Greymarble]

893 makes Bob + twisted fairly unlikely;
I don't think I've seen a scum call a buddy an 'information lynch.'

[Greymarble]

I'll do making-sure-I'm-not-wrong-deep-reread tomorrow.
I wanted to do it earlier but I've been a bad llama.

[Greymarble]

Your case on Twistedspoon was good, but it wasn't alignment revealing. Any experienced player can churn out cases like that.

Ew. I know scum says this kind of stuff. Does town ever say this?

[Greymarble]

Mikemike hasn't convinced me he's town, though I prefer obvious fakeclaims over VT claims.
@Mikemike:
What would you claim as scum in this situation?

[Greymarble]

We're in serious danger of actually no lynching.
I will now hammer anybody except me and everyone else should do likewise.
(so basically if you're not on mikemike's wagon FINISH HIM)

[Greymarble]

Deadline is in like 2 or 3 hours?

[Greymarble]

Or if you're on the mikemike wagon you can get on Akira and I would hammer.
Anything not to no lynch.