And I tend to agree with dragyn- there's only so much that we can discuss on day 1 and the setup is one of them. That being said, some people(i.e. scum) may be able to get info from that, so I can see why some are against the idea. Still, where else can we start? I'm open to ideas (besides random bandwagoning).
Mini 280 - Game Over
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Random vote jaguar
And I tend to agree with dragyn- there's only so much that we can discuss on day 1 and the setup is one of them. That being said, some people(i.e. scum) may be able to get info from that, so I can see why some are against the idea. Still, where else can we start? I'm open to ideas (besides random bandwagoning).-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Nobody, scum or not, will load up the bandwagon so fast- it will virtually scream that they are scum and will make for easy pickings in the next lynching round.
If it were four, I would be concerned, but lynchings occur VERY slowly on day one in general. Rest assured, if we get close to a lynch without more information or a claim, I will be unvoting.
But for now my vote stays.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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I could tend to agree that there are mostly likely scum on the wagon, but there is a second alternative as well- there is usually a big difference in perception with votes at this stage of the game. 3 votes is considered safe, while 4 is considered getting close to a lynch- I agree with Jaguar on this. Scum or town alike are probably not inclined to take such a step this early in the game since it would call attention to them. As Jaguar said, a few people FOSed him and wanted more of a response or more time- I believe one player said that they would have voted him if not for there being 3 votes already. So yes, I think it's quite possible there's scum on the wagon, but it's also quite likely game policy as well.
Let's not forget we have an inactive member as well in Passdog that can skew our numbers. Any chance we can get a prod or replacement on him?-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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After rereading the thread, I'm inclined to be lenient on Fiasco. KingPin, I am not seeing what you are with LML- he seems to be pretty aboveboard. I thought that 'living up to expectations' was a quip, not meant to be taken seriously.vote kingpinI think you're making a mountain out of a molehill here.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Hmm, passdog has not posted in this thread since saturday and yet has posted in another thread today (see his profile).FOS passdogand can move up to a vote if he doesn't have a good reason. I do, after all, subscribe to the 'attack lurkers' theory.
I do agree with Aelyn and his line of thought persuaded me some on fiasco, but I'm still ambivalent on him. In any case, I wouldn't vote him right now since that would put him at five votes. And yes, when I earlier unvoted him, it was a miscount.
And kingpin, if you can, I'd like more info from you as to why you distrust LML- or is that it?-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Two things:
A) Passdog has not posted in this thread since Saturday. I'd really like to have EVERYONE participating- it just seems ilke we're letting him skate by with lurking. I'd like either a prod, or failing that, a replacement. (I suppose voting would also work, but I want to know if he's b been around and just hasn't posted. If so, my vote will be going there). In the meantime, prod or replacement please.
B)In response to Jaguar, it was indeed a miscount. And it's not that the danger zone should necessarily be two away from a lynch, but I wanted to be sure to avoid a premature lynch- if someone was confused about the vote count (as I was), a premature lynch could occur with one away. This is why I unvoted with four votes (I thought).
That being said, since no one will probably vote fiasco without a claim, the next step would probably be to decide whether it's worth making him claim or whether we should move on to a new target. Personally, I want to wait until passdog returns or is replaced before I personally decide on that.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Hmm- an extremely interesting conundrum occurs here. If LML is scum, I'm not sure I would see the need to claim- it would unnecessarily draw attention to himself and if he's proven wrong, he's on the chopping block tomorrow. The same thing tends to apply to Don, but yet it could be construed as WIFOM.
The simplest and safest thing to do, I think, is lynch Aelyn. In either case, we will have a cop handy (assuming he wasn't just a scum that got lucky) to help us in finding further scum.
What concerns me is our doctor situation- we already lost our doc night 1 and there's no guarantee that there's a backup. It's entirely possible that one of these two is scum trying to draw out the real cop so as to create a scum-cop swap.
All that said, the best play is to lynch Aelyn and see what happens. I obviously still want to hear from him, of course, but in the meantime,unvotevote Aelyn.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Why not simply LYNCH Aelyn so we can know for sure, rather than possibly sacrificing a sane cop just because you want to? Everyone here, except you, has propounded the reasons why we should avoid an LML lynch today and I agree with them. In fact, I'll add that if we DO have a backup doc, it's foolilsh to not allow him to try to protect- it's possible that our sane cop (if we have one ) could actually survive the night in that scenario and then he could have a result for us AND we could trust the result. Useful, no? THen why are you recommending tossing this possibility away? Furthermore, Aelyn's alignment will tell us who is correct and that gives us more information. The scum likely already knows who's telling the truth- let's give that info to the town as well. More to the point, a claimed cop (who I will assume is sane or insane, either works well for us) is more valuable to the town than an unnightkillable townie. And even the townie himself is not guaranteed life- in the coward roles I've seen, if the coward hides with someone selected for death that night, the coward will die as well. The cop can give us progressive info throughout the day and help hand us scum if he finds them- I'm not willing to throw that away day 1.
I'm still fine with an Aelyn lynch, but you're first on my scumometer for tomorrow pending further developments.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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I should add that obviously, both DG and LML cannot both be sane- but that just means that in all probability one of them is sane- so I don't want to lynch one of them day 1 and risk losing the wrong one.
Speaking of which, why are you so ardently promoting the lynch of LML? Wouldn't lynching DG do just as much good under your theory, Fiasco? (not that I'm promoting the idea, mind you)-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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I see Fiasco still hasn't explained why he likes the lynch of LML so much over DG.
Dang, I REALLY wish we had our daykill vig. Given how many people have stated that they are suspicious of Fiasco, would it be a worthwhile move to recommend to a vig (if we still have one) to kill fiasco tonight? Just a thought, because that could save us a lynch as I think it's safe to say he'll be #1 with a bullet tomorrow on everyone's lists. Mind you, I don't even know that we have another vig, but if we do, I think it's worth a shot. What do people think?-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Rule #1: Never try to outguess the mod.
As such, both DG and LML have said at various times that they think they may be insane. We don't know which of them is telling the truth until Aelyn dies. He has said that he is unnightkillabe- an ability which for our purposes may fall equally well between scum (e.g. godfather) and town (coward, for instance). Thus we cannot rely on night to kill him, so a daytime lynch is required (or a daytime vigging, but we lost him already). Thus, for our cop results to make the most sense, we should lynch Aelyn. This way, if one of our cops survives tomorrow with a live result, we can operate further.
What am I missing in my reasoning?-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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In the interest of fostering further discussion,unvote
Fiasco, why are you necessarily assuming that Aelyn is telling the truth and is a coward? We do, after all, have a report telling us that he's scum. Given what we know now, the odds are roughly fifty-fifty that he's scum. So if we lynched him and he's scum, we've bagged a baddie, found a probable sane cop, AND have at least an insane cop, possibly scum. Not bad with one lynch.
More to the point, if I'm going to back off Aelyn, you, Fiasco, will be my #1 target for all the reasons already mentioned, most notably promoting the lynch of a claimed cop. I have been going after Aelyn mainly because his death will help the town the most (in terms of determining who is the real cop, as I outlined in the last paragraph). However, in terms of actual PLAY, Fiasco has been by far the most suspicious. Why are you so concerned about the SK and what is best for him? It's day one- we're a LONG way from the endgame, heck we're still on day one.fos fiasco
Don't take the fact that people have had the opportunity to lynch Aelyn and not take it too high. That can be interpreted as WIFOM as well: people know that not lynching Aelyn may be looked upon as pro-town so they don't lynch. I'm not banking on that too much, especially day one.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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I agree with Jaguar- given the extreme hesitation to lynch Aelyn, I'm already thinking that we won't be lynching him today.
Given that, my mind is already moving to Fiasco. In terms of actual gameplay, he has been #1 in my mind ahead of Aelyn (I have been supporting Aelyn for game-related reasons). Most notably for the reason that he has been supporting lynching a claimed cop day 1 and he seems to be jumping all over the place.
Given that, and how early it still is, I willvote Fiasco.
I doubt the mod will answer the question, if only to avoid supporting Aelyn's claim- we have no idea yet whether or not Aelyn is telling the truth so I don't want to start assuming that he is.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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That's not my experience. Typically in my experience, a single doc protect will protect against one kill attempt- but if two are made, then the person dies anyway. However, if a kill attempt is made both on the doc and his protectee (separately), the doc dies but his protectee survives (all other things being equal).-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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I agree- and I think the only piece of new info we're likely to get is fiasco's claim. Maybe that'll get people going because I think it's pretty clear we're going to lynch one of the two of you today.
Specifically, we need the people not voting to pick a side- it's not like we're going to get much new info. I think that's what we're really waiting on right now.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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So why aren't you voting him? Or is there something I'm missing?LoudmouthLee wrote:
You are the scummiest person I've ever seen.Fiasco wrote:Actually, I'd agree to an Aelyn lynch if, in case he turns up guilty, we're lynching LML the next day. But if we're going to lynch me in any case, there's no harm in doing it now so we'll have more info for the next lynch.
I gave you my result. It makes NO sense for me to "allow the town" to get two scum.
I, sincerely, think you're really either cornered scum or the most misguided townie ever.
I would be VERY happy lynching Fiasco.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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At the time I made that statement, Norinel, Fiasco had 3 votes and Aelyn had 2 with 3 nonvoters. It wouldn't necessarily lead to a lynch, but it would get us there. Only if we're split would it not lead IMMEDIATELY to a lynch. If they all voted for one person, it could be a lynch but not necessarily (nor would it necessarily happen right away).
And in any case, we wouldn't necessarily NEED a lynch, but I do want to see more progress since I agree with passdog, fiasco, and lml: i really don't feel like there's much more info to be gained from today.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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You sound more and more like a trapped scum looking for a way out and trying to stall until you can think of a good claim.
More to the point, it sounds like you're asking for someone to clear you through an investigation. Why should we do that if we can just lynch you? And as Aelyn said, why not claim now? What's the negative?
My vote stays.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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At this point, I'm thinking it's better if the cops keep their investigations to themselves- if they put it up for influence by the people, two things can happen, A) there's a risk that scum can influence the investigation and put it toward someone not on them, and B) scum can kill the investigation and make it tougher for the town. Sure, it might help us know if the cop is sane, but it also cuts down on the amount of knowledge the town has. if the cop can make an independent investigation, I think it helps the town more...
If we wanna test the cops, the easiest way is still to lynch aelyn, but that's a route we can leave for tomorrow, assuming he isn't dead tonight...-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Bro, we have a deadline coming up and there's nothing else we can get from you- in quite a few other games, you probably would have been lynched long ago. I'm not viewing it as scummy at all (at least, not in and of itself). What you're saying might carry more weight with me if you hadn't been pointing suspicion at people like crazy in this game.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Hmm...interesting that there was only one kill. If the other killing party went after Aelyn, that would explain why there was only one death. Alternatively, there is a backup doc who protected successfully or a roleblocker. Or they could have just not to chosen not to kill altogether...
Not sure what the best play is since we're not sure of DG's sanity. Hmm....-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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I'm not going to subscribe to the theory of lynching LML- at least not today. Here's why- we're already down a day-vig, a doc, and a cop (sanity unknown). The last thing I want is to possibly eliminate a cop that can actually help us right now. We're at 8 right now and we haven't nailed any scum, so I believe this is an important. Not that we're at lynch-or-lose, but if we don't lynch correctly today, we very could be.
For that reason, I want to leave LML until tomorrow and look at some other suspects, the most notable being mage for promoting the lynch of a cop right now. It's clear now that the scum let Fiasco dig his own grave yesterday- the problem is that it's tough to deduce much from that since just about everyone agreed Fiasco was scummy (way to go, fiasco...most misguided townie ever. Certainly didn't help us any...). Mind you, I'm not at all sure of LML's scumminess or lack thereof, but what I do know is that right now we need to keep our eyes open. As a result, I prefer to leave LML for now(since even if he's scum, he's probably got partners- I refuse to believe his counterclaiming a cop on day one could be a SK gambit) and concentrate on other options. Aelyn still seems like the best play as of now- we DO know that DG was a cop and found him guilty- sanity is the key question here.
Thoughts?-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Yeah, after thinking about it some more, I tend to agree.unvote aelynWhat might be good is if we asked the SK in-thread to act like a vig- right now, the SK and town have the same interests (knocking out mafia), so it makes sense for us to instruct the sk tonight who he should kill. Or should we leave it up to him? What do you think?-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Aelyn killing no one is the same as a no-lynch at this point in time, which I dont' want to do. I'd rather take my chances and use TWO kills (the lynch and the Aelyn kill) to get us a scum, if possible. If we can't do that, then scum deserve to win.
Let's analyze the numbers, using the prior 3-1-4 theorem (this theory assumes that Aelyn is telling the truth about being the SK). I assume 3 deaths under this scenario, assuming no blocks or docs (lynch today, Aelyn's kill, and mafia's kill). If we kill one scum and lose two townies, then it's 2-1-2, which is winnable but tough for the town (assuming Aelyn can still be trusted after tonight). That scenario would conceivably lead to a mafia-SK-townie standoff. If we kill two scum and lose one townie, it's 1-1-3. Town has a pretty good chance to win here, unless Aelyn turns on the town. If we don't kill any scum at alll, we have probably lost. If one of everything is lost (mafia, SK, townie), we then have 2-3, which would be lynch or lose for the town, but still better than what we have now (since there are fewer suspects). Are there any other scenarios that I'm missing? I like our chances better if we use Aelyn's kill.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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I forgot to say that this claim does a couple of things.
A) we know that DG is sane (even if Aelyn is lying, he would be mafia, which would still make DG sane. I suppose he could be paranoid but I refuse to believe the mod would make TWO cops of different sanities that are not sane).
B) Aelyn could be scum copping a gambit of SK and hoping to lynch a townie to help the mafia along.
C) Whether Aelyn is telling the truth or not, LML cannot be sane. Thus, he is either a naive cop or a scum trying to counterclaim a real cop.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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See Mafia 43- Married to the Mob for just one example of the SK coming out- and that was midgame, not in a possible lynch-or-lose situation! Not that I necessarily buy Aelyn's claim as a result, but it has happened.KingPin wrote:I have never had the SK come out and offer the town help. Call me skeptical of the whole thing!
Regardless, it is reasonably clear now to me that DG was sane. The only question is whether LML is a misled cop or is posing scum. Either way, I think it's worth using one of our two kills on him- the only question is which.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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I'm inclined to believe Aelyn over Kingpin. Why not do this? Lynch LML and have the SK (whichever is the real one) off the SK? Though, this may not work if the SK is nightkill-immune...hmm.
I am still leaning toward Aelyn as being the SK- Kingpin's claim doesn't hold up to me. But out of curiosity, both of you, are you really nightkill-immune (I know Aelyn claimed this when he was claiming coward, but it might not still hold)?
I don't believe Kingpin or Aelyn would be town (and if they are, they've just hurt us worse than Fiasco did). More likely, one is mafia and one is SK. The trick is telling which.-
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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vikingfan Mafia Scum
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Woohoo! I'm really happy about the way that I sailed under the radar and avoided being suspected even at the end when norinel blocked passdog instead of me...
Good thing too, because I think we still would have won even if we hadn't committed our mistake. Kingpin misread his PM to mean that we could talk during the day, so we did...didn't have much effect for the most part (we barely talked) until we coordinated aelyn's lynch...which we could have pulled off anyway, but yeah...
Even if we hadn't done that, I think we probably would have won anyway...aelyn and lml investigating the same person is what really screwed the town...-
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