Mini 1252 - My Not So Humble Abode - Game Over

[weirdbeard]

Well hi everyone. I must say, I'm disappointed in the mass hatred of my beard, but no matter .

So, our RVS is already partially broken, which I actually quite like. I'm not a big fan of the RVS myself anyway.

Do you not find "BANDWAGON GO!" with a bandwagon vote to be a scum tell? It indicates nervousness that his vote will be seen in a bad light, which goes against a "I'm town and I am performing actions that are natural for a townie to perform" mindset.

No it doesnt.

Wagons are great and an essential part of the early game, I want one on you right now.

You however are apparently calling him scummy for the "Bandwagon Ho" comment but are not voting him, instead seeming to give him a joking FoS. That reads like nervousness that your moving your vote will be seen in a bad light, which goes against a "I'm town and I am performing actions that are natural for a townie to perform" mindset. I see no reason why you are not voting that pony at this point.

In lieu of anything better to go on, I'm going to put my vote this way too. If you found it scummy, why not vote him?

VOTE: Protector

[weirdbeard]

@Wierd - Did you actually read the whole game already?

Fairly quickly. I'll check it over again to see if I missed anything. I'm not really buying the vote for TSG because he doesn't want to post in the RVS argument. It's no more than a difference of opinion between players IMO.

[weirdbeard]

Protector's explanation does seem pretty reasonable, actually.

[weirdbeard]

You're right. Using the smiley means it's probably not serious though.

~Johhog

Fake-Edit: Yeah, I gotta agree with the post above me, it kinda does look you are looking for reasons to vote.

But then, who isn't at this stage? Town grasps at straws until either someone slips, or enough information is gathered to build strong cases on people.

[weirdbeard]

Sup!

Vote: Johman

Any reasoning behind this vote?

[weirdbeard]

I think the point is that if you say you're just trying to bandwagon someone, it has no effect. Someone has to actually think they're in danger of being lynched to start screwing up.

I actually like Palmar's case, I like it a lot.

Unvote

VOTE: Johman

[weirdbeard]

vote: weirdbeard

In addition, if you announce that your vote is to start a bandwagon, or to put pressure, you have defeated the purpose. This sucks if you're town, but it's good if you're mafia because you don't actually want people to follow your lead if you're mafia unless you're a really strong player. He's basically just throwing away responsibility with this unnecessary addition.

Actually, this is the part of the case that I really like. All the stuff about images and joking around is pretty weak. That has much more to do with the personality of the player than anything else.

[weirdbeard]

I never said it's a strong case, but it's still a case. I could have my vote on no-one, or I could make someone sweat a bit, and potentially screw up. I've been satisfied by Protector's defence so far, so I don't feel that's where my vote should stay, hence I'm voting for Johman.

[weirdbeard]

Johman's a null read to me. The case on him honestly has very little of substance, and an attempt to read into 'bandwagon go' IS pretty much grasping at straws. However, I don't have any strong reads on anyone else either.

Johman was entirely correct in saying that I'm bandwagoning for the sake of bandwagoning. I have no reads right now. (however I will be doing some re-reading next time I check the thread to see if I pick up anything, it's a little late at the moment and I'm recovering from fresher's flu :p). I'm more using my vote as a reaction test, not only to the person I'm voting, but to see how other players react to it. Unfortunately, it's not really brought anything tangible up for me right now.
s
I didn't take my vote off Protector by the way because, well why bother? There was nowhere I was going to move it to and he wasn't exactly in danger of being lynched any time soon. My thoughts are that 'pressure is good'. I've seen scum screw themselves over because they can't handle pressure on themselves before now. I've also seen scum tip their hand in trying to push a mislynch before. Votes get information so I think that most of the time, the least useful state of my vote is on nobody at all.

Sir Bastion, I'm not so sure that I'm a hypocrite for 'putting my vote anywhere'. Certainly I don't need anything more than a mild suspicion to throw my vote someone's way, but that still casts doubt on that person, and puts pressure on them to defend themselves. The things people come out with when I make such moves can be telling, if not necessarily now, then later in the game. And truth be told, I'm not putting it 'anywhere'. If I have a reason to finger someone as having scummy behaviour then I will do so, even if that reason is fairly weak.

[weirdbeard]

I also disagree with 2bird1stone's logic. Believe me, as a scum-sided player the LAST thing you'd see me do would be sheeping my partner's case on day one, unless it was on a player who looked massively scummy to the playerbase at large. I think that looking at who people DON'T vote for is about the best information you can get from day one.

Now, 2birds1stone, do you honestly believe that the whole scum-team would vote together on such a weak reason to early in the game?

Unvote

VOTE: 2birds1stone

[weirdbeard]

No.

UNVOTE: Protector
VOTE: weirdbeard

~Johhog

Would you like to give a reason for this vote?

I don't like 2birds1stone's faulty logic. He could be fishing for a mislynch, (the idea that we're a scumteam together based on some day 1 votes together is ludicrous). However, I do find it interesting that he voted for Palmar rather myself. I would seem to be the obvious target here, with Rainbowdash casting doubt on me and Johman having effectively FoSed me.

[weirdbeard]

I'll address your issues in two separate posts. I tried to do it in one and my brain started melting

I don't like 2birds1stone's faulty logic. He could be fishing for a mislynch, (the idea that we're a scumteam together based on some day 1 votes together is ludicrous). However, I do find it interesting that he voted for Palmar rather myself. I would seem to be the obvious target here, with Rainbowdash casting doubt on me and Johman having effectively FoSed me.

See now im not sure how you come to that conclusion.

You are saying he is less scummy for not voting you?

Also responding to what I said, in particular the reason you moved from Protector to Johman would be nice to hear since there was next to nothing between those two posts.

Ponies constantly more brushing off my case on wierd is not going to go over well. If you can't tell, I like being payed attention to.

@TSGR - Explain your town read on Weird

It is PERHAPS less scummy for 2birds1stone not to be voting for me. Arguably, it could be an attempt to FoS me whilst avoiding being on the actual mislynch wagon (to deflect blame when I flip town as lynched). I'd like to know why he chose to vote Palmar instead of me though, it just seems kind of odd.

The reason I moved from Protector to Johman? BOTH cases boil down to me simply using my vote to gauge a reaction. I'm an aggressive player by nature, but when we moved (rapidly) out of RVS in this game, I had no reads at all. I figured I'd just throw some pressure around and see if anyone screwed up. They didn't.

There was no point staying on protector once he'd posted his defence. His defence was fine which pretty much left me in the dark as to where to go next. Hence I just joined onto the next half-assed case that came up without really thinking about it too much. (Again, at this point I had NO reads). It only really struck me just how thin the case was on re-reading later but again, I was in the dark when I decided that the case was pretty weak. 2birds1stone is my first real scum-read of the game. I do have a few town-reads now as well, but I don't see much point in stating them right now (I don't like giving the mafia too much information regarding who to night kill).

Now onto the next post...

[weirdbeard]

Bastion, I'd be less concerned about when people log on the site as it's irrelevant to the game and borders on using "outside influences" which is a site rule, plus it's a really crappy way to play. If he doesn't post in the time allowed, let the mod deal with him.

If there is a problem with the way I play then bring it up with the mod. I swear I end up talking about lurkers more so because people keep harassing me about mentioning them in my first post...

Irregardless lets take a look of how things are laid out.

No.

UNVOTE: Protector
VOTE: weirdbeard

~Johhog

Oh Johman please dont be like Palmer and vote without explanation It makes me a sad bunny. After I gave you something of a Bastion seal of approval

I'd point to Rainbowdash as signs of how to push a vote. You want other people to agree with you.

Which is important because moving on to the new 2birds/palmer/weirdbeard wagoning

-2birds logic is flawed yes and is incredible weak case. Its trying very hard to wrap Raindbow's case against weirdbeard and TGS all into one conspiracy...

But is it scummy?

well Palmer thinks so but its another meta WIFOM trying to read the player...which unless you've played 2stone before (checks history...nope)then breaking down his argument is the most you can do and pushing it further into a scumtell is excessive. I cant possible see the advantage of playing a hand so badly on purpose as a scumplan unless its bait.

but If you want to look at a confusingly bad play that looks somewhat scummy

I also disagree with 2bird1stone's logic. Believe me, as a scum-sided player the LAST thing you'd see me do would be sheeping my partner's case on day one, unless it was on a player who looked massively scummy to the playerbase at large. I think that looking at who people DON'T vote for is about the best information you can get from day one.

Now, 2birds1stone, do you honestly believe that the whole scum-team would vote together on such a weak reason to early in the game?
Unvote
VOTE: 2birds1stone

Someone's put a big case out on you and has accused you of playing a bit like an oppurtunistic sheep and you ignore it and jump on to a different wagon? That is very suspect. its also bizarre as it is something that seems a bit too careless...

I must ask though what is it about palmer's arguments that are so convincing for you WB? This would be the 2nd time you would join him on a wagon (and possible making 2bird more convinced he is right)

Vote: WierdBeard

Good to hear from you scumhunter hope for some quality input.


EDIT: damnit rainbow you got to be confused before me

Fixed Bold tags

Thomith.

I think this simply boils down to me and Palmar agreeing on one thing here. Bad logic is a scum-tell. Scum have to APPEAR to scumhunt and thus holes often appear in their arguments.

Rainbowdash's case on me is actually quite good, she's coming out with the kind of logic-chains I EXPECT from a good town-player. And frankly, I've not been on form this game anyway and I'm not the best day one player in any case (view my past 2 newbie games on this site if you're curious. In both games I've attracted massive day one suspicion as town ).

TSG's comment on me in his big listing of thoughts on all the players was absolutely spot on. I have pretty mcuh been coasting because I struggle to get good reads and build cases this early in the game.


Completely unrelated to the current posts, why does everyone seem to have Johman down as a town read? I have him as no better than null. The case on him was pretty weak, and it was easy to defend himself against. However, I've not seen all that much pro-town action from him. He's been far too neutral so far, as has Beck. Also his 'me too' vote on me makes him no better than me in regards to his 'sheeping' so far. As has been asked of me, do you not feel there are more questions you can ask of me, to try to pin me down as scum?

(I'll address that question to me now btw. I thought it was self-evident, but the reason I didn't ask further questions of either Protector of Johman was that

I had nothing more to ask

. The cases on them were weak in any case, and I just wanted to see how other players would react to my vote.)

I also have an issue with non-posters. I subscribe to a couple of ideas in mafia regarding scum-hunting.

Active lurking is scummy. Especially if it involves just poking in with the occasional nothingy 'filler' post or un-reasoned votes.
Neutrality is scummy. If you're not taking sides, you're not giving us information to rule you out or fit you in as part of scum-teams in the later game.

I would actually be more than happy to shift my vote to one of our quieter players if they don't speak up. 2birds1stone's poor logic is a scum-tell to me, but again, it's not the strongest I've ever seen.

[weirdbeard]

Also for gods sake it's

WEIRD

beard. E before the I.

God damn that annoys me.

[weirdbeard]

Sorry, I was just so pissed atm that I didn't give reasoning.

Either Weirdbeard is scum or he's just saying "fuck you" to us all. When called out on wagoning he wagons even more. He votes for 2birds1stone without a case on him and he's even using WIFOM to defend himself. All this in a very small post consisting of three-four sentences. Really Weirdbeard, give me any reason on why you would do this as town, because I don't see it. And I'm kinda pissed.

~Johhog

I have a case on him. Arguments with poor logic are a scum-tell to me.


Also, I HATE the term WIFOM. It's overused. Think about what is LIKELY and what is not. Scum are not LIKELY to all attempt to push a lynch together, and certainly not from absolute zero votes on the player. Scum are LIKELY to distance themselves early game and have conflicting vote patterns and reads to stop players drawing obvious links between them.

[weirdbeard]

Also, I HATE the term WIFOM. It's overused.

Think about what is LIKELY and what is not. Scum are not LIKELY to all attempt to push a lynch together, and certainly not from absolute zero votes on the player.

Scum are LIKELY to distance themselves early game and have conflicting vote patterns and reads to stop players drawing obvious links between them.

Ok back at you same logic. What does 2birds if he is scum getting out of accusing you three and voting Palma? As a scumplayer what advantage does putting out such a stretch get him?


The only thing I can think of is a rise from the three of you painting yourselves guilty (which two of you did) or its a possible bus?

That is a very good point. I actually don't think it's either of the things you've brought up (I think the 'painting ourselves guilty' thing is too much of a stretch and I find a day one bus HIGHLY unlikely).

It could potentially be that he's hoping not to push a lynch on Palmar but to STILL FoS me, resulting in him helping push a lynch on me without leaving a vote trail. That's also seeming a LITTLE far-fetched to me.


I have to go now, but I'll check back tomorrow. In the meantime, I'd like Johman to expand on his case on me, and I would like to hear opinions from Beck, Scumhunter, Edgerobin, bvoigt and Draken. As I said before, I don't like neutrality, and that is WAY too big a pool of players for scum to just slip right into.

[weirdbeard]

So it'san OMGUS?

I hate that term too. And no it's not. Don't insult my intelligence and read the case.

[weirdbeard]

There was no point staying on protector once he'd posted his defence. His defence was fine which pretty much left me in the dark as to where to go next.

So you are arguing now that this

I refuse to answer that question after I'm sure I've answered it more than once in this thread.

Is a solid defense?

Im not following your logic behind the switch here.

Can you give me a rundown of scum and town reads of yours?

@Beck - Gameplay meta is better then post game meta. How does this match up to WB-town?

I skim-read the topic before putting that vote out so it was based on my absolute initial response to his vote. On reflection and re-reading I felt that it was a weak case and dropped it. It's really that simple.

[weirdbeard]

This puts you in a pickle because the reasons left for voting him are also bad logic or OMGUS. If you cant provide reason why his actions will benefit him as scum then your justifications for voting him, that he is using faulty logic apply equally to you.

I hadn't considered whether it would benefit him as scum to finger 3 people as a scum-team at once until you brought it up. Again, it's simple. I hadn't considered that aspect of the issue.

[weirdbeard]

I would like to point out that fingering 3 people as a potential scum-team doesn't HARM him as a scum-sided player either. Should one of us flip town he has nothing more to say that 'Oh well, guess I was wrong' and carry on. Attempting to finger an entire scum-team could be an attempt to be seen as very pro-town by trying to appear as if he is thinking beyond simply lynching one scum. Personally I think that thinking you could have found the entire scum team is naive at best, and an attempt to 'look town' at worst.

[weirdbeard]

Just did some re-reading and realised I've missed SO much stuff. Again, I'm tired now (didn't actually intend to post again tonight but I checked the topic quickly before bed) but I'll be back again tomorrow of course. I'll give a list of my reads when I get chance to re-read thoroughly. Some players actually have more of a leaning than I initially thought, just from glancing through the first few pages.

[weirdbeard]

Page 1

Johhog actually looks a little dodgy on re-reading.

His first non-random vote (which came after a couple of non-random votes had already come up against protector):

AHA. Your FoS on me was apparently a joke, but now it was completely serious? Btw, if I was that scummy why didn't you vote me and FoS SGRaaize? And you're even mentioning lynching me over a "Bandwagon go" post?

No point in keeping my vote at this point, Protector is a good wagon.

Protector defended against this beautifully, calling him on his weak case.

Page 2

First post (I think) from Draken. Says he doesn't have much faith in the Johman case that has been based on 'bandwagon go'. Which is fair enough, cause it sucks. Unless taking into account the possibility of a Draken/Johman scumteam, this gets him town-points imo.

Next post from Draken shows a lot of neutrality. He claims not to have much on either myself or TSG. Drasher calls him out on it.

Edgerobin posts with some probing questions but doesn't really take side here.

Page 3

A nice little gem here from Draken

Rainbow... as much as I love ponies this is not the place for posting pictures of them...
Also we're less than 24 hours in. One thing about mafia is everyone jumps onto miniscule tells that mean little. While I don't doubt this is very helpful in causing larger tells to emerge, I find it rather difficult make a fuss over what is simply not that big by itself.

Very true. I tend to forget this myself. I'm inclined to give him a few town-points for this. He could be over-cautious scum but what he says here is a pretty damn good point.

Beck maintains a vote on TSG with pretty good reasoning. I like it, town points.

Sir Bastion ignores the current votes and goes with Scumhunter, who has been active lurking. A move I agree with actually. The Johman case is looking VERY thin at this point, so he takes the hunt elsewhere. I am still feeling very uncertain about some of our less active posters


I'm going to stop this page by page analysis at this point because it's going to get kind of big.

Dasher looks pretty town throughout most of the game, appearing to be actively scum-hunting and probing and building cases. There is just one discrepancy to me

Johman is almost for sure town. The case against him is horrible. Honestly guys it makes no freaking sense, if Johman is scum this is like the definiton of somepony getting lucky with a null tell. Random stage wagons are essential to the game, what do you expect if there are no random wagons? Everypony throws dice and then we move on from there? Johman did absolutely nothing wrong here and has kept some very impressive composure defending himself from all yall, something im pretty sure I would not have done there. The only thing that is stopping me from going off tilt destroying the wagon on him is parts of 39 which really doesn't make much sense.

Almost for sure town? That's a strong claim, and one I disagree with a lot. Sure, the case on him sucked but I don't see what makes him seem town to you. At best he's null.

A lot of Johman's posts since defending himself seem quite vague, and all he has to say in response to my comment about TSG's comment

Aren't you arguing the exact opposite? Why would we ever all BW in one person at the beginning of the game in such a quick succession? Talk about bad play!!!

Is

WIFOM much, eh?

I like the direction this game is going in btw, never seen a game with this much content from everyone.

~Johhog

Then again, that's an issue I have with players on this site in general. Perhaps I'm being a little too suspicious about this because in my first game here I had scum trying to build a case on me in which he liked to rely on these little soundbites like 'WIFOM' which seem to translate here as "I can build a case on you, AND destroy your defense whilst saying absolutely fuck-all of content to do so!"

TSG's defense is great, echoing my thoughts exactly

Its not really WIFOM, making such a play when Town is sure to have at least one ML is just dumb.

I don't want to speculate too much, but, 13 alive players, I am thinking 4 Mafia at worst, which would be 2 ML's, most likely 3 Mafias, which would be 3 ML's, making a play where the Mafia buddy each other on a random BW in the first few minutes of the first day sounds like a terrible move, and its certainly something that wouldn't ever be planned.

Now, imagine you being one of the Mafiosos, seeing one of your buddy vote a Town, seeing your other buddy vote Town, and then decide to vote that same Town? Why would you do that? I'd really like to see a link of a game where that happened.

And again, Johman just throws out his little soundbite

But yeah, it's WIFOM. It isn't dumb if you don't get caught, eh?

Palmar's return vote on page 6 against 2birds1stone actually looks pretty well-reasoned to me.

TSG also votes Draken around this point for seeming to drop out of the game. I like that.

Johman just sticks his vote one me around that point, after I switch my vote to 2birds1stone. He doesn't argue why he's done so either.



Apologies for the wall, stream-of-conciousness posting that may get a little messy and hard to read. I just kept adding to this as I read through the whole topic.


So, here are my reads

Edgerobin - Null. Not enough input. Although I DO like his vote on 2birds here.
2birds1stone - SLIGHT scumtell. Seems to have pushed a lynch based on faulty logic and has come out of nowhere to do it. However, it doesn't particularly benefit him (as Sir Bastion pointed out) to finger 3 people as scum. All I can say back to that is it doesn't hurt him much either.
TSG - Slight town. Whilst (like me) he was on the weak Johman wagon his vote on Draken and list of reads in page 5 looks like real scumhunting and looks pretty good.
Rainbowdash - Slight town, appears to have been actively scum-hunting all game and frankly, I expected someone to start a case on me by this point. My play thus far in this game has been pretty awful. However, I don't like her having Johman as a town read.
Beck - On re-reading he seems to have actually been pretty involved in the game. Not a strong read, but a slight town-leaning IMO.
Johman - Scum-read. His defence of himself was fine, but he doesn't seem to have scumhunted himself and just happily hopped onto the wagon for me with no more than soundbites of 'WIFOM'.
Bvoigt - Null. Not enough input.
Draken - Slight scum-read. Much like other posters here, I don't like his un-reasoned vote to put me at L-1 and he's just hopped onto my wagon out of nowhere. Also for most of the game he's been passive, and particularly avoided the Johman case (which did suck). This would get him town-points normally, but Johman is ALSO a scum-read to me. Hence I would like to tentatively put forwards the theory of Johman and Draken both being on the scumteam. Draken seems to have been happy to hop onto my wagon, as it looked increasingly more likely that I would be lynched.
Sir Bastion - Has been a town-read for me through much of the game. I don't like his use of the 'OMGUS' soundbite regarding my argument but he did raise some valid points as to why 2birds1stone could be a weak vote.
Scumhunter - Null. Not enough input
Protector - Pretty strong town-read. Appears to have been playing in a logical manner throughout the game, and his later posts only strengthen that read to me. Actually my strongest town read in the game at the moment.
Palmar - Null. His initial case on Johman was sucky (which makes me sound like a hypocrite because I was ON that case. All I can say is, I didn't think it through enough. I play a little too fast and loose in the early game I'm afraid). His case on 2birds1stone later is a lot stronger, IMO. AND like I said much early in the game, "town grasps at straws until someone slips or enough information is gathered to build case on them". I don't think sucky early cases are a particularly strong scum-tell.


So, to round it off, Johman, 2birds1stone and Draken are all scum-reads to me. If Johman flips scum, that will strengthen a case on Draken for me. (As Draken was hesitant to join that vote, in spite of his scummy vote on me). Hence I'd like to vote for Johman today.

Unvote

VOTE: Johman

[weirdbeard]

-Weirdbeard seems to have shirked his sheepish status by now restarting a wagon of Johman, course that's brought drama of its own, which we will need to wait until tomorrow to see if there is something more to this (I notice weirdbeard said Johhog instead of johman at the start of his post, so there indeed could be something outside of this game influencing these posts

There isn't. I'm not sure why he's had such an emotional response to my vote for him. I've never played with him before or talked to him on this site or anywhere else before this game.

Anyway, big rants regardless, Johman is still a scum-read to me. All he's doing is echoing Dash's sentiments and hasn't committed any more to the case. His 'defence' is mostly an emotional response. It's a shame if his lack of contribution has been due to real life commitments but I can't just clear him based on that.

He raises a good point on Draken. Draken actually looks slightly town to me in his EARLY posts, unless he's part of a scum-team with Johman. That would explain his hesitance to join onto that vote, but his eagerness to get onto mine.

Should Johman flip scum today, I would be a lot more confident in a Draken vote. However, like many others here, I don't like Draken's vote out of nowhere putting me at L-1. I've seen very similar moves from newb-scum before and it makes him look scummy in itself. Also note that the wagon on me was FAR more developed than the early game wagons. It is still a 'safer' wagon for him to join than the early wagons because he can just say tomorrow "Well, everyone thought weirdbeard was scum."

That big ramble is basically me trying to say that even if Johman flips town, Draken is a long way from clear to me.

I would appreciate it if you guys would re-read through Johman's posts this game and see if you agree with my reads on him.

Also @Rainbowdash, why is Johman a town-read to you? Is he still as strong a town-read?

[weirdbeard]

Votecount 1.8

Edgerobin (1) 2birds1stone,
2birds1stone (2) Palmar, Edgerobin,
TSGRaaize (0)
Rainbowdash (0)
Beck (0)
Johman (0) weirdbeard,
bvoigt (0)
Draken (4) TSGRaaize, Protector, Sir Bastion, Beck, (L-3)
Sir Bastion (0)
weirdbeard (4) Scumhunter, Johman, bvoigt, Draken, (L-3)
Scumhunter (0)
Protector (0)
Palmar (0)

Not Voting (1) Rainbowdash,

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch.

V/LA's:
None

Replacing:
None

Prodding:
None

Day 1 Deadline 19th October 2011

As usual any mistakes then tell me.

Should be 'Johman (1)'. Not much of a mistake but y'know :p

Fixed.

Thomith.

[weirdbeard]

Actually

I think this is a guy trying to both defend and bus his buddy at the same time. At least, I'm confident that Wierd is scum. Possibly not draken, though he just jumped onto my scumlist for interactions with Wierd. But Wierd is scum. I'm 100% sure of that.

I do you a disservice Johman, you did contribute this to the case, although you seem to just be trying to strengthen what seems to be (and I'm going to hate myself for saying this) something of an 'OMGUS' vote.

In any case, defend AND bus my partner at the same time? Erm... what? Explain exactly how I'm doing that (if that's even possible).

My issue with Draken is that he isn't consistent. He was incredibly hesitant in the early game AND has just been happy to hop onto a bandwagon in the late-game. I think he's actually the second-best lynch for today. Hence as I re-read the game page by page he started out as being a slight town-read but the shift in his playing style makes him look a LOT scummier to me at this point in the game.

Bear in mind that my 'big reads-on-everyone' post was made in a stream of conciousness AS I read through the whole forum thread. What you are actually reading there is my thought process leading to my reads at the end. I just stopped writing EVERYTHING about halfway through because the post was going to get enormous and turn into a big wall of random thoughts.

Palmar, are you just being pissy or are you gonna need a replacement?

[weirdbeard]

Is Draken a strong scum-read to you Johman?

[weirdbeard]

Interesting. And how would you feel about him being lynched today?

[weirdbeard]

Town reads (from strongest to weakest): Dash, weirdbeard, Palmar
Lean town: Protector, Sirbastion, Palmar, TSG
Null: bvoigt, 2birds
Lean scum: Edgerobin, Johhog, Draken
Scum reads (from strongest to weakest): none that are very strong yet

Assorted quick thoughts:

Interactions between Edge/2birds early on looked like potential scum distancing with each other. Just seemed a bit unnatural.

Palmar dropping in to casually place a serious vote seemed very town to me early

TSGRaaize was pretty overdefensive at points, not sure it is a scum tell though. He's prob town.

Protector is probably town but could be dangerous as scum.

Johhog pinged my scumdar when he said it doesn't defeat the purpose to announce you are starting a bandwagon. Or maybe its just that I disagree with that sentiment strongly. Not really seeing why people are calling him town. I'm pretty suspicious in general of him not jsut because of that one ping.

Draken's L-1 vote on weird was bad. He attempted to explain his intent. Not sure if I buy it. Going into this post I thought he'd be my vote, but if he's town I feel he could be an easy ML target for scum...

This feels right to me:

vote Edgerobin

It takes time to do that last post you did with all the quotes. What was actually said in it? Not much of value. You say you have a gut scumread on Draken, but want to focus on 2birds vs palmar instead? Can you explaikn your gut scumread on Draken? If Draken is town (pretty big if) your post reads to me as trying to casually mention that you would support his lynch if that wagon grows and it certainly could do to Draken's L-1 vote. Oh and another thing is the mention of hydra disagreements felt off to me. Having played as a hydra before, when I disagree with my other head I'm making sure that my opinion is known both in our QT and in thread. I don't get the feeling that your hydra disagreement is really a significant impetus in your reads at this stage, although maybe its because I'm just an intense person to hydra with sometimes. Anyways, yea hope this explains what I'm thinking right now.

Any questions on my reads, please ask. Sorry to have been inactive. Might have bit off more games than I can chew, busy IRL, etc. I should be on later tonight to dedicate some more time to this game.

On what basis do you have myself and Palmar down as town-reads?

[weirdbeard]

Draken what's your read on Johman?

[weirdbeard]

Whoops @Beck, I meant 2bird, not Palmar.

That still doesn't make sense. You said Palmar, 2bird then Johman.

[weirdbeard]

My case earlier involved a Draken/Johman scumteam. I'm not quite as sure that's the case any more.

Draken still looks scummy to me, although that last post was pretty good. Johman is still looking fairly odd to me, perhaps he's just tunneling on me though. I'm not really sure where he's getting a Me/Draken scumteam from. Can you explain that? Draken is still one of the stronger candidates for a lynch to me today.

I'll look into the cases on Edgerobin and 2birds tomorrow. Real life's been keeping me a little busy recently but I am still following this game.

[weirdbeard]

2B1S wagon should die off now.
Draken one too.

Why? Also, I'm still not buying the TSG as scum argument. More gut than anything, but I find myself agreeing with a HELL of a lot of his reads when he posts them up.

I will do some re-reading tomorrow, life's a bit hectic at the moment. The pace of this game is starting to frustrate me somewhat as well.

I still think 2b1s and Draken are both perfectly viable wagons, and that at least draken is a perfectly viable lynch for today. Not sure on 2birds without doing some re-reading.

[weirdbeard]

I don't like Draken AT ALL. I don't like his L-1 vote on me and more importantly, I don't like the switch in his play. Why be utterly neutral and then put someone to one vote from a hammer with such terrible reasoning. I can see him being noobtown, yeah, but I don't see why he'd shift in the way he plays so much unless he's fishing for a mislynch.

[weirdbeard]

I've already been through this in my big 'finding reads on everyone' post. I'm tired right now but look back a couple of pages and you'll get it.

[weirdbeard]

Sorry about that, I was meant to put my vote back where it originally was, but for some reason I ended up voting Draken.

This strikes me as a bit off.

[weirdbeard]

Can someone quickly run me through the following cases please?

Why is TSGR scum?
Why is 2birds scum?
Why is Edgerobin scum?

[weirdbeard]

I actually really like Sir Bastion's case. I keep meaning to re-read this thread though, it's gotten way beyond my comprehension at this point. People are bandying around cases that I'm not following at all.
I'm really not used to day 1s that are this long .

I don't like Draken's hesitance (combined with his dodgy L-1 vote on me). Sir Bastion's meta strengthens that argument.
I
At this point I just want to vote the most obviously scummy looking player to me (that being Draken now, Johman's ended up being all muddy and null in my mind which I don't like much, but whatever) and see how he flips. It's day one, we can argue the whole "He could be an easy mislynch target for scum!" thing all day and it's a fair argument. We can't see how much merit there is to it though.

I want to lynch him, see how he flips and use that information to carry us in day 2 rather than keep shifting between all these various different arguments that we're bringing up on each other.
Yes, I am getting frustrated with the pace of this game. Call that a scumtell if you will, I'm sure some of you will, but this ridiculously long day isn't helping ME as town. I'm just getting bogged down in all this mass of posts with so little solid information to go on and it's not helping with my reads at all. It's just making my brain numb

Unvote

VOTE: Draken

Now if someone has a good case as to why another player is scum, I'd like to hear it. I asked for a summary of the cases I've seen so far in this game and I didn't get one. So fuck it, I'll just vote who I'm buying as scummy right now.

[weirdbeard]

I don't really give a damn if I get night killed if I manage to take one down with me :p

[weirdbeard]

Ugh, I don't like 2birds vote on Draken either. I'll do some re-reading into him this weekend. Still, Draken's defence sucks.

Honestly, if he's so blatantly softclaimed and isn't scum, he'll probably wind up being the night-kill target tonight anyway.

[weirdbeard]

Uh, the second sentence was a post-edit btw to Boigt's comment.

[weirdbeard]

I'm not inclined to believe Draken's softclaim anyway. I remember the point being raised before that someone thought Draken being a town-sided PR could possibly have resulted in his different playstyle. It seems to me like he's just decided "Yeah, that sounds like a good way to get out of this, I'll roll with that as my reason."

[weirdbeard]

Palmar and Johman are distancing. I have never seen a player post

nothing

but 'kill [player X]' so many many times in a row. It's not possible. It's not bloody possible.

Scumhunter, you didn't explain why Johman's a good vig target. When did we start assuming there's a vig in this game btw, did I miss something?

I'll admit it certainly doesn't look like I'm that newbish a player when you look at my other games, but right now I don't feel I'm doing so flash.

That suggests to me he's playing a role he's never played before IMO. Not necessarily scum, he may be freaked out with the power (and thefore, responsibility) that comes with an awesome town PR.

Also, Draken, if you think I'm scummish, vote me. No-one's gonna find a vote on me particularly odd, and there's only one vote on me atm, so there's no risk of quickhammer.

Um, my vote's still on Edgerobin, is anyone gonna join this wagon? Well, join this and turn it into a wagon?

RBD's town unless she's alive by day three, we all know that.

[weirdbeard]

Draken/2b1s scumteam seems possible at first glance. Will have to read into it more. I still want to see how Draken flips.

If Draken gets up to L-1 then it would make best sense for him to claim then. But it's pretty unlikely that I'd believe him anyway, at this point.

[weirdbeard]

@mod My vote should be on Draken, not TSG. Incidentally, has my vote EVER been on TSG this game?

[weirdbeard]

Ugh. I'm kind of feeling Draken as town too and it's really annoying me. If RBD and Draken turn out to be a scumteam I'm gonna be really pissed off. Hell if draken flips scum regardless I'll be pissed off.

Drunk now, so not going to think much further than this, however, FOR NOW at least

Unvote

I can only say that I have a STRONG gut feeling that Draken is going to flip town. :\

[weirdbeard]

Lets Lynch TSGR. TSGR, your last post is overexplaining your stance and leaving your options open to potentially ML Draken in the future imo. No me gusta

@Pony, what happened to the lynch TSGR plan? I'm not liking some of the ponies nor the case on the 2birds wagon, particularly edge + beck (evil ponies imo)

Weirdbeard, thats one hell of a flip in your opinion of Draken. You were to the point of saying you wouldn't believe him no matter his claim to a strong town gut read O.o Was his generic VT claim that convincing?

Somewaht important side note: 3rd parties like serial killers just love to talk about the possibility of a vig on day 1.

From a logical standpoint, I think he's a good vote. My gut says he's probably going to flip town though. Plus I made my unvote post when I was drunk :p.

I'm not entirely OFF the Draken wagon, I'd like to point out. If there's no clearly better options by the time we're pushing the deadline, my vote will be back up on him. I want to look into the 2birds case for now though. Preferably when I'm not hungover

[weirdbeard]

Also

based on what I have seen, i'm down for that dude to be lynched

Vote 2b1s

What's 'what you have seen' exactly?

[weirdbeard]

Yeah, please do. I'll be re-reading on him tomorrow. I had him down as a scum-read earlier in the game myself but haven't read into him since.

[weirdbeard]

4 days till deadline btw guys. We need to wrap this day up pretty quickly.

[weirdbeard]

Oh, guess not. Mod's latest post has the deadline later than that. Still, it's coming up. 22nd October.

[weirdbeard]

If I was to take a page from my gut cause everyone else is...I do think drakan is still scum. He has been consistently timid and apologetic in his defense which to me feels like posting with intent rather then someone reacting to a case piece by piece. I urge anyone to reread his responses to his case and consider that.

Ugh :\. I keep going back and forth on the Draken thing. I pretty much unvoted because I saw him roleclaim vanilla townie and think, "If he was scum, he would have claimed a PR." But then, I'd already said I wouldn't believe a PR claim from Draken.

Whatever. Gut reads are dumb. I still intend to read into 2b1s tomorrow and see if there's any merit in the case on him however.

VOTE: Draken

[weirdbeard]

Whatever. Gut reads are dumb. I still intend to read into 2b1s tomorrow and see if there's any merit in the case on him however.

For somepony who believes in "Act now think later", gut reads are great.

Also please explain this

I'm not entirely OFF the Draken wagon, I'd like to point out. If there's no clearly better options by the time we're pushing the deadline, my vote will be back up on him.

What does "better options" mean?

@scumhunter - TSGR is not a bad lynch still, but I think 2B1S is a little better now.

Better options means a player who looks more inherently scummy.

Not sure I quite understand this part of your post btw

For somepony who believes in "Act now think later", gut reads are great.

[weirdbeard]

why did weird unvote and then revote Draken?

Please answer.

I had an initial gut response to Draken claiming vanilla townie that made me think he was town. Can't really explain that too well, it being a

gut response

. Probably has a lot to do with RBD being one of my town reads. I came back to the game the next day and started doubting that initial gut response again, and put my vote back up. Also, my 'gut feelings' on players tend to suck anyway, so I don't put that much faith in them.

Why was the drakan vote on wb a Self defence vote? Looking back at it prior to voting wb drsken had no wagon beyond tsg and he wasn't under any major scrutiny?

I don't really get this either. In fact, it was Draken's vote for me that resulted in a wagon being pushed on him.

[weirdbeard]

- Johman and weirdbird move to the same wagon, while TSG moves out. Hard to think that weird and Joh are scum together
- weirdbeard moves from wagon to another. This could be an attempt at distancing from Joh.

Do you think that me and Johman are a valid scumteam or not?

[weirdbeard]

[quote="In post 597 If 2B1S is scum, I think wierd is scum with him.

Why?

[weirdbeard]

Edge, is pretty much Obv town with that huge VCA post 2b, so I think you need to divert your attention from him.

Not to me, he's not. He's null. Lot of words, not a lot of content.

Personally, I think I can learn the most from a Draken lynch, so that's what I'm going to stay with right now.

[weirdbeard]

those huge posts take a lot of effort, something I don't see scum willing to do.

They do if they want to look town. Like I said, lot of words, not a lot of content. He's very much a null read to me.

[weirdbeard]

RBD, why are you hardcore defending someone who you have down as a

gut

town read?

You're even going to the extent where you're using the chainsaw defence to defend him.

Interestingly, I actually started looking back thinking "I can can clear you here, I think a Draken/RBD scumteam is unlikely". After all, you were the person who initially called them on their L-1 vote.

This is making me a little twitchy.

@Draken - Can you make a clean flowing case on Weird instead of what you have?

unvote

Theres like three ponies not caught up. We aren't lynching until then, especially when one of the ponies has his RVS vote on wierd. You can consider my vote on wierd for all practical purposes, although Draken still really is giving me bad vibes.

Then I noticed something interesting. RBD hasn't voted for Draken at ANY point. Way before she 'cleared' him as a gut read.

So here's what I think:
If Draken flips scum PR - RBD is scum
If Draken flips mafia goon - RBD -might- be scum
If Draken flips inno - RBD is probably town.

So can we lynch Draken please?

[weirdbeard]

@Bastion: you are right. As these events happened in a phase in which I was not paying attention to the game, I must have mixed things up while rereading. However, since self-defence-vote means scum to me, your corrected analysis, showing how the vote was even scummier, conforts my reads. Still, I keep prefering a 2birds lynch.

@weird(1): interestingly, now that I called 2birds scum and said that you would make sense as his scumbuddy, you both FoS me. [MEMO]

@weird(2): I have collected all the VC'S to analyse the voting pattern... you say it's a lot of text with very little content, and then what you have to offer is this?

Then I noticed something interesting. RBD hasn't voted for Draken at ANY point. Way before she 'cleared' him as a gut read.

If Draken flips scum PR - RBD is scum
If Draken flips mafia goon - RBD -might- be scum
If Draken flips inno - RBD is probably town.

pfui @logic_fallacy, I haven't voted for Draken either. And in some games of mine, I have seen scum people defending wagoned townies to get towncred. You gotta do better than this if you want cerdit for scumhunting.

~lew

Calling you null isn't FoSing you. It's calling you null.

You're not being all weird and defending Draken as a 'gut' read anyway. And I know that scum can defend wagoned townies too. That's why I said

probably

town

[weirdbeard]

By the way

Likelyhood that we are ALL wrong and both Draken and 2birds are town is neglectable. One of them has to go. I find 2birds scummier. And I also think that reading back the votecounts I just summarised once one of them has flipped will be very informative.

Give me, in specific terms, why you find 2birds scummier. I've stuggled to see much tangible in the 2birds case. He is a scum-read to me, just not as strong as Draken is. Also, due to the amount of discussion we've had on Draken already, I think we can learn more from his flip, regardless of what it is, than 2birds.

[weirdbeard]

I'm fine with people shutting down wagons, but it needs a bit more basis than 'he's a gut town read' IMO. If you can say, "Draken is town because he did X, Y and Z" or something along those lines, THAT'S something I'll listen to.

Also, my gut reads tend to be totally wrong as well. Just sayin' :p.

[weirdbeard]

Gonna pick and choose a few things from Edgerobin's big post right now.

Protector (3) Rainbowdash, weirdbeard, Johman, (L-4)

- Johman and weirdbird move to the same wagon, while TSG moves out. Hard to think that weird and Joh are scum together.
- If weird is scum, it's possible that scumhunter was voting him with his RV (see above) [MEMO]

Johman (3) Protector, Palmar, weirdbeard (L-4)

- Protector and Joh are crossing votes, weirdbeard moves from wagon to another. This could be an attempt at distancing from Joh.

I already asked you about this and you ignored me

Do you think that me and Johman are a viable scumteam or not?

Votes are spread:

TSGRaaize (2) Beck, bvoigt,
Rainbowdash (1) Edgerobin,
Johman (3) Protector, Palmar, weirdbeard (L-4)
Draken (1) TSGRaaize,
weirdbeard (2) Scumhunter, Rainbowdash,
Scumhunter (1) Sir Bastion,
Protector (1) Johman,
Palmar (1) 2birds1stone,

- if Joh were scum, we would have rescue-activity by one of the following players: SH, RD, Beck or bvoigt.

I don't understand this. Please elaborate.



I have been a little unfair to Edgerobin, in that post he does make some good points, especially when talking about 2birds. A lot of it seemed to be just commentary on what was actually happening in the game though, and a few of his comments relied purely on speculation (such as his discussion on the TSGR wagon).

I'll call him null-town for now. I've just not had nearly enough content from his slot to call him a town read right now.

[weirdbeard]

I completely missed that post 0,o. I apologise.

[weirdbeard]

Still, could you tell me about this please?

- if Joh were scum, we would have rescue-activity by one of the following players: SH, RD, Beck or bvoigt.

[weirdbeard]

Give a full case on me whilst you're at it please, Rainbowdash.

[weirdbeard]

Aww shit.
I actually

like

RBD's points on Draken.

I'm totally gonna have to read into 2birds and Beck now. :\

[weirdbeard]

In fact, hell. I'll just do a full re-read on everyone and everything and see what comes up. Another huge post incoming soon...

[weirdbeard]

Actually, hell no, I DON'T like RBD's points on Draken. I was typing out a huge post but this stood out a mile to me.

Read from here https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 6#p3482526

RBD's posts totally smell of leading here

From Draken's 172

Nothing to quote...
He follows Palmar within a few posts of Palmar.

You do not. I'm not entirely sure why you want me to compare him with you...

RBD apparently gets this

If I have it right: You are saying at least one of the ponies who sheeped Palmar, who you see as town, has to be scum in this situation. After looking at it you think it is more likely wierd.

So nuts to this. My vote's staying where it is. And if Draken DOES flip scum, it'll be on RBD next.

[weirdbeard]

I've read through about half the topic now. It's 1:25am and I have lectures tomorrow, plus my brain is starting to shut down in general, so I'll save the rest for tomorrow I think.

[weirdbeard]

Not voting TSG. I don't see how he's been any less lurky than Johman, Scumhunter or Shinki.

[weirdbeard]

Ugh. The more I read, the more I get lost. Draken's actions have seemed the most 'obviously' scummy throughout the game. As was brought up long ago, he'd be an easy target for a scum mislynch. 2birds and TSG? Well, I did like Palmar's case against him in the early game, but based purely on the actions he has taken, he doesn't come across as being as scummy as Draken.

TSG, I've had as a weak town read through most of the game. Possibly because I found myself agreeing with him a lot of the time in the early game. I don't think opting out of the RVS is a particularly great part of the case against him (I can understand why a player would choose to do that, regardless of alignment).

As for the lack of activity part of his case, he's far from the only player to have been inactive in the lategame. I'd much more happily see a lynch of Shinki or Johman, but for whatever reason, everyone seems to have them down as town right now. I genuinely have no idea why >:(

[weirdbeard]

By Palmar's case I meant Palmar's case on 2birds btw. I'm not a huge fan of relying heavily on early game actions to decide a lynch anyway.

If anything, I think I'll just keep my vote on Draken because he's useless. If 2birds is actually town, I think he stands a decent chance of being able to build cases and help the town. Draken's contributed almost nothing. Also, I think we kind of

need

to lynch Draken now because of RBD's massive defence of him. As Sir Bastion said, she's gone as far as to use the chainsaw defence (attacking the attacker of the person you are trying to protect), which some people would call a scum-read in itself. I'm not sure if I agree with that school of thought or not, but for the sake of having any level of faith in RBD for the rest of the game, I need to see how Draken flips or I'll constantly have her on my scum-dar.

[weirdbeard]

First its almost for sure a mislynch, im not at all super convinced that TSGR is scum here, but I actually think he is more of a liability then Draken is.

Why is he more of a liability than Draken is? TSGR was a slight-town read to me in the early day and a muddy shade of null to me in the late day - along with about half the players in the game.

I don't see why everyone's hopped onto TSGR as scum. I can see a case on him as an 'active lurker', but there's a lot of other players who fall into that category too.

I don't like how suddenly Draken was 'clear' to so many people, I don't like how it was based on RBD's

gut read

. I don't like how an old wagon on TSGR has been brought back up with very little added to it and how quickly it has grown. It smells of scum leading the day game here

[weirdbeard]

playing badly is a reason to be suspicious of somebody, lurking is also something to keep an eye on, your votes for questionable reasons and your lack of scum hunting for most if not all of the game.

So for this TSG is scummy, and yet you think

I'm

town?

I'm not sold 100% sure you are town, I'd you recall you were a top scum read too, you hinting at a PR and claiming VT, means you are really a VT or scum afraid to fakeclaim, I've never experienced the 2nd, so I'm working under the assumption that you are probably town.

I've seen scum claim VT plenty. Particularly newbscum.

[weirdbeard]

Damn. That claim was probably unnecessary you know RBD...

I guess that, assuming the claim is true, that rules out an RBD-Draken scumteam. It still doesn't exactly clear Draken though, but it does weaken the case on him somewhat.

Ehh, I really don't know. We've already had Sir Bastion says he's willing to hammer on TSGR, so my thoughts on that wagon are irrelevant. And I would rather see a TSGR lynch than a 2birds lynch, although I still don't get why so many people haven't been considered for the lynch today.

[weirdbeard]

I want to hear 2bird's answers to SB's questions. I've got a few thoughts regarding him.

I'd love to know what your plan was, by the way, RBD. So far as I see it, you've outed yourself as a PR to lynch one useless townie, over someone else who, at best, appears to be another useless townie.

[weirdbeard]

@WB the key is the or he outed himself as.

What?

[weirdbeard]

Oh, 'the key' is a role? I'm unaware of it. Can't find it in the wiki either.

[weirdbeard]

Oh actually, nevermind. I see what you're getting at now. Your post was just horribly garbled and fried my brain.

[weirdbeard]

I'd love to know what your plan was, by the way, RBD. So far as I see it, you've outed yourself as a PR to lynch one useless townie, over someone else who, at best, appears to be another useless townie.

You will know when I flip (maybe), when the game is over or we massclaim.

Until then, lips are sealed.

Im down to a couple ponies to choose from.

2B1S is mixed telling all over the place out the gate, the opening question from bvoigt is horrible, Johman seems far to sure that the kill was from scum for what he knows, wierd is WIFOM.

Eh.

It's 'weird'. Agree with you mostly so far, but I don't get what you mean by me being WIFOM? Please elaborate.

Also, I'm gonna re-read. I think we should open up other players to scrutiny beyond those in the wagon. I'm honestly a lot more nervous about our 'neutrals' so far, the players who have avoided scum-hunting, than the players who have. That, to me, puts the FOS on Draken, Shinki (Protector) and Johman. I will be re-reading into them all shortly.

[weirdbeard]

Possibly bvoigt too. I'll do a full re-read. I might have missed some more odd looking players, they're just the ones who come to mind first.

[weirdbeard]

Edgerobin does seem like a scum-target. I'm guessing he's either been picked off by mafia or a serial killer.

[weirdbeard]

Okay, for starters, I think RBD's claim is legitimate. If she's pulling a scum-gambit here, it's very clever.

You guys probably aren't going to bite on this, but I'd like to completely shift our direction of scum-hunting. We have a lot of people who barely, or didn't, weigh in on the end of yesterday at all. Johman and Shinki are the first that come to mind for me, but there are probably others. I'm going to finish my re-read and then decide which way I want to push it.

Unsure on 2birds here, still kind of unsure on Draken as well. I'm fairly convinced that RBD is town-sided. Wouldn't mind lynching Draken for similar reasons to Johman and Shinki. There's been a lack of scum-hunting from their slots. I'm (bizarrely) actually a little inclined to call Draken noob-town at this point, but he's far from a strong read that way to me. (God, I know, I've been back and forth in my opinion on Draken all game).

Johman's play in particular, reminds me of a style of play I've come across from a couple of scum-sided players so far on this site. In fact, I'll actually link you to the games I have in mind.

See Will Zane's play in this game https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=19056 and Friend's play in this one https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=18667. It seems "I am town and I'm mad at you for being idiot scum" is a popular strategy on this site. Combine that with a lack of scum-hunting from his slot, and you tentatively have my strongest scum-tell at the moment. As I said however, I will re-read.

I'm going to put my vote up his way for now anyway though, pending re-reading.

VOTE: Johman

[weirdbeard]

2birds, any thoughts so far? I'd like to hear from you. What do you think about votes on Johman?

[weirdbeard]

What's bugging me about 2birds is he's exactly the kind of guy the scum would like to leave around to push a mislynch on - assuming he's town, anyway. I mean, my case for him as scum involved him pushing a bad case on another player as it's main staple. That could totally be a noob-town error.

I really need to get this re-read done. I just can't work myself up to reading through 37 pages. (I totally need to start from the beginning again, to account for the flip).

[weirdbeard]

Case on Delta looks good at first glance. I'll look into it when I do my re-read (which I am TOTALLY going to do... however, it is my birthday, and I am drinking tomorrow evening (or... today evening since it's 1:20am) so sobriety - and scumhunting, shall have to wait).

RBD, what are your thoughts re: Johman. Something looks very dodgy about him to me, although I might well drop that case in favour of Delta. And, to be fair, I had her as someone who'd be a good lynch for today for the same reasons as Johman - namely, lack of participation towards the end of yesterday and lack of scumhunting.

[weirdbeard]

You're doing it wrong, the scummiest player is supposed to start.

I'm not sure about the Shinkicase. While I can agree with a fair bit of it her play reminds me a bit of my own, and I know that I'm town. While I can't claim to have a townread on her I would say that she's town, if I have to choose between scum or town.

~J

How does her play remind you of your own?

[weirdbeard]

Hey Johman

You're doing it wrong, the scummiest player is supposed to start.

I'm not sure about the Shinkicase. While I can agree with a fair bit of it her play reminds me a bit of my own, and I know that I'm town. While I can't claim to have a townread on her I would say that she's town, if I have to choose between scum or town.

~J

How does her play remind you of your own?

I asked you a question.

[weirdbeard]

Ooh very nice SB. How can Scumhunter honestly have no idea? There are so many viable votes for today. 2birds, Johman, Delta and... dare I say it, Draken. Scumhunter seems to fit into my 'lurky, avoided end of day 1' category too, so I quite like this vote too. I still need to re-read, I'm heading out in about 10 minutes, so I can't do it now.

[weirdbeard]

Some thoughts right now - I think 2birds and Draken are the weakest lynches. They both have a bunch of actions which look very newbtown. I'm much happier with lynches on our lurkers - Johman, Delta. Possibly Scumhunter. He's slipped under my radar, big time and I need to consider him in the re-read.

[weirdbeard]

How funny that you would say this. Personally I would place YOU in that camp. And I've been scumhunting, something you've only done moderately.

I invite the rest of the town to go re-read. Johman's actions yesterday consist of going "OMG WEIRDBEARD IS STUPID I FEEL OFFENDED - VOTE" and then lurking away the rest of the day, just putting in the occasional post to show he's still watching the game.

[weirdbeard]

Well, that was unexpected.

My vote was on Johman anyway, I'm certainly not moving it from him now.

If Johman flips scum, IMO that makes Scumhunter and Delta look even more suspect. I'll look further into that once I see his flip.

Saw a comment about Johman being an odd investigative target - not sure I agree with that. Most people had him down as town-leaning/null-ish on day one. If I were the cop, he's who I'd have looked at, personally.

[weirdbeard]

:\

I hope Delta was just scum giving up. I've genuinely had his slot as a scum-read since Shinki replaced in.

[weirdbeard]

Delta, if you were actually town, and you were complaining about quicklynching and not waiting for the mod...you shouldn't have self-hammered.

This. If you're town - no matter how frustrated you're getting with your fellow players, you shouldn't deliberately make anti-town actions. If nothing else, other's votes could contribute to our later vote analysis.

[weirdbeard]

If Johman definitely was NOT a neighbour, I can't think of any conceivable town-sided reason for 2birds to claim neighbour with him.

[weirdbeard]

2birds has to be lying. With a statement from the mod confirming that neighbours would flip on death, his defence is worthless.

[weirdbeard]

I would also like to see a mass-claim at this point. Honestly I'm HIGHLY unsure of who the scum are at this point. I'll need to do quite a bit of re-reading.

[weirdbeard]

Personally, I'd like scumhunter to claim next.

[weirdbeard]

Finish the massclaim please. Ideally, I'd like to see Scumhunter, then Beck, then me claim, personally. There've been enough claims now that the scum have a damn good idea who to nightkill.

[weirdbeard]

My bad. Okay. I still want scumhunter to go first.

[weirdbeard]

Well, I see noone's trapped themselves yet

Town-sided Jack of All Trades

I had 1 cop investigation, 1 vig shot, and 1 tracker investigation.

N1: Cop investigated Johman. Guilty, of course.
N2: Vig-shot Johman
N3: Tracker investigated Bvoigt. He visited noone.

On N2, I was a little paranoid we might have a 4-scum team, hence using the vig-shot on my guilty, even though he probably would have been the lynch target for the next day. Also, with the length of the days and pace of this game I kind of thought you guys needed to see a scum-flip anyway. Day one was particularly painful to be a part of, IMO. I almost replaced out by default, but did have some ideas of who the scum are.

It seems pretty much implausible to me that we have 4 scum this game, considering I'm the last power role here. Bvoigt is cleared by my tracker investigation. I was kind of hoping someone would claim a PR today in response to my own hesitance to claim - just in case they had a tracker visit report on them. Our scum aren't that dumb though clearly.

Palmar is probably town, IMO, even if he has been a pain in the arse all game. Johman was scum, and the average partner wouldn't have a lot of reason to bus him. The guy (irritatingly) seemed pretty much lynch immune, which actually made me suspect RBD and Sir Bastion a lot for the way they were leading the town. Thanks for killing them scum, you made my life a hell of a lot easier .
I w
Everyone seems to have crossed votes with the scum at some point or other this game. I re-read through to page 25 last night, but it was more or less a toss-up who to use my night action on. I would've read the rest, but RL was calling and time was ticking. If you're wondering why I used them so early, well, with the early-game suspicion on me I was worried I could be lynched in one of the first few days. And with so many VT claims getting thrown around too, I was pretty paranoid of being an early night-kill.

FMPOV, scum almost certainly has to be one of Draken, Scumhunter and Beck. Not sure which one I find most likely yet. Will require re-reading before I cast my vote.

[weirdbeard]

I didn't out my guilty because I wanted to have my tracker investigation free for use. Pretty simple explanation really.

I'm pretty damn sure there's only 1 scum left, and probably no SK. With only a bodyguard, JOAT and 1-shot vig, town's pretty weak in the PR department for this game. Also, do you genuinely find it likely that town ONLY had a bodyguard and 1-shot vig? That's even weaker.

[weirdbeard]

Also, bear in mind that Palmar fake-claimed cop at one point. A pretty dumb move in general (even though he was RIGHT about Johman), but if he was scum, I don't see why he'd retract. If he was going for the bus, why not just hold fast with his claim? If it's some kind of mindfuck strategy it's very unusual.

[weirdbeard]

I'm all out scumhunter. I claimed in full and have used each ability.

[weirdbeard]

Why Palmar, Draken? Is there anything else to this vote but the vote on Deltawave? Seems a pretty weak reason to me.

[weirdbeard]

Still don't have a damn clue. I need to re-read, and my life's keeping me busy right now, so it could be a little while.

[weirdbeard]

If we don't lynch, it's me that'll die. That's not going to help you much.

[weirdbeard]

The scum still died and we got a clear. I don't see what's so terrible about my play. If I'd just outed Johman it wouldn't have achieved a whole lot anyway, in fact, we wouldn't have been in a situation with 2 practical clears yesterday if I had. And I thought Delta could quite plausibly be scum anyway. Palmar, my strategy for this role was different to yours but stop raging about it. All you've DONE all game is rage at people, so you're not a hell of a lot better than the people you criticise

I thought Delta could be scum anyway but he wasn't. If Johman had been leading a lynch, trust me, I'd have outed my guilty then. I'm always going to play for as much information as I can get personally.

Now Palmar, stop being an ass. Unless you're scum pulling some crazy gambit you're actively playing against your win-con right now, and I don't see why you shouldn't be replaced.

[weirdbeard]

Actually, I'm tired of this game

@mod Replace me please

[weirdbeard]

@mod I retract that. Sorry, just getting very irritated with Palmar, plus RL is keeping me kinda busy. I doubt anyone would want to fill my spot at this point though, so I'll finish the game.

I'm not casting any votes without re-reading first. Scumhunter's been on my scum-dar since day 2 but I am nowhere NEAR sure that he is scum. I find it highly unlikely that Palmar is scum. Even from his actions today, it seems more likely he'd sheep a case on Beck or Scumhunter than go for the oddest target (me).

[weirdbeard]

Question to all of you: How likely do you find Palmar to be scum? I'd be interested to hear all your thoughts.

[weirdbeard]

Question to all of you: How likely do you find Palmar to be scum? I'd be interested to hear all your thoughts.

It's possible, he seemed to peg both of those guys with little evidence but if he is scum, that's such a

risky

stupid move as scum.

You're mirroring my thoughts almost exactly. Palmar's actions don't make a whole lot of sense as scum. But he's increasingly striking me as the kind of guy who might make a move like that as scum-sided ANYWAY.

[weirdbeard]

I don't see how your play right now is any better than Draken's was, Palmar. Just saying.

[weirdbeard]

That day was just weird. When Palmar claimed cop on Johman I figured it was probably bullshit, but I thought it would effectively get scum lynched for free so it didn't matter. I was going to fence-sit, see what Johman did and if it looked like he was going to push a lynch on someone, or was hardcore defending someone, I would have outed the guilty. However, the wagon moved to Delta, who I thought was scum anyway. So FMPOV it was "Someone I think is scum will probably be lynched today, tonight I vig-shot Johman, giving town the necessary info from his flip anyway and I'll probably still be alive to use my tracker investigation if I do this." Sure, it's not the standard play for a guilty on this site, but in my experience, whenever I collar scum (even as a VT) and get them lynched, I die that night. Even if I'd hardcore pushed on Johman, I was more interested in finding the OTHER scum in the day-phase. Besides which, noone was listening to me anyway.

[weirdbeard]

Also, fuck this. Palmar is NOT scum. Even considering that he seems like the kind of guy who'd hardcore bus, he would NOT fakeclaim cop on day 2 if he was scum. If he was scum, he'd be risking a CC. His actions that day very much look to me like the actions of someone who REALLY thinks they've caught scum and is just frustrated that noone is listening to them. (And trust me, I know how that one feels). The retract looks more like someone who isn't 100% sure (as no vanilla townie ever is) and is worried that they might end up causing the town to mislynch twice if they're wrong.

So I'd also like to rule Palmar out, putting it between Beck and Scumhunter. GG to you, Palmar, if this is a scum gambit.

[weirdbeard]

Just poking my head in here to prove I can't be the last scum. No quickhammer from me.

[weirdbeard]

Cop - Johman, Night 1
Vigilante - Johman, Night 2
Tracker - Bvoigt, Night 3

[weirdbeard]

Hate to put you guys off even more but I have an assignment due in tomorrow. It might be a few days until I can make a call on this.

[weirdbeard]

Still here. Assignment's in so I can get this re-read down now.

[weirdbeard]

Gonna start with just checking through everyone's posts in isolation. Will then re-read the game as a whole.

Notable Beck posts from day 1

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 6#p3476096

Beck votes TSG, first non-random vote. Reason being that it's in scum's interests to avoid the RVS.

Various posts after this elaborating on his TSG case until...

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 1#p3481951

Beck votes 2birds

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 2#p3483082

Beck elaborates on 2birds case. Also

I'm keeping my vote on 2birds, the whole logic behind his vote is horrible, TSG or Werid would be the people he would want to vote, not palmer.
another thing that really struck me as odd is why did Johman object to a vote on 2bird, very weird.

if i had to guess I'd say the scum team is TSG/2bird/draken

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 7#p3483167

Switches vote to Draken

It's not really hunting for scum, just giving my early picks. I'm not 100% on either of them but it's basically my FOS list.

Since daraken is posting somewhat, I'll pressure him for now

vote: Draken

But 2bird isn't off the hook

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 3#p3491043

We are not policy lynching, palmar just looks frustrated, 2bird is actually trying to justify it

vote: 2bird

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 1#p3491311

Conflict between Beck and Johman...

Damn I missed that comment by racer, oh god please don't put me on your scum list, how will I ever survive

/sarcasm

I already listed 2bird as a scum read for me, I even voted him once already. His contemplation of actually wanting the policy lynch is yet another thing he has done that is scummy. The scum is strong in 2bird, Im perry sure.

If I have to be on your scum list for lynching scum, I'll accept that.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 1#p3493181

Unvotes. Votes TSG again

doing an iso read on my original top 3, TSG is hands down the epitome of active lurker imo and he hasn't done anything of value to help move the game along or to even try and catch scum.

FYI, Beck's top 3 at this point in the game is 2birds, Draken and TSG


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 2#p3498042

Votes scumhunter.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 9#p3510569

Votes RBD. Suspicious of town alliance

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 4#p3511484

Votes bvoigt for rolefishing.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 6#p3511506

+1 to both statements.

2b1s seems opportunistic to me

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 2#p3511892

And mod, can we get a prod on the racerman head? He is holding onto info that is viable to the progress of the game.

Beck effectively pressuring Johman here.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 2#p3514162

Votes Draken

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5#p3515865

Votes 2birds again.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 7#p3519247

I don't like easy wagons, I said WAAAAAAAAAY back my scum reads were tsg/darken/2b1s

I unvoted darken cause I felt his vt claim was genuine, I felt drakenscum would have claimed a pr.

I explain my 2b1s vote later in the game, and I said when I get to a pc, I'll post a more concise case.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 1#p3529321

Votes TSG. Reneges on the part of his case on 2birds regarding his policy lynch suggestion.

I really can't see scum attracting attention to themselves by trying to justify a PL or by suggesting one. Plus his votes can sort of make sense and his frustration of Palmer definitely seems like town frustration of a useless player

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 2#p3530222

Votes 2b1s, catching that he voted for a town read, unvotes a couple of posts later when someone catches that 2birds actually DIDN'T vote for his town read and revotes TSG. Vote remains there until deadline.

Day 1 closing thoughts. Beck's frequent votes on 2birds, as well as conflict with Johman make him look pretty town on re-reading day 1. Frequent switch of vote and lack of certainty looks like legitimate day 1 play from a vanilla townie. Every vote seems to be reasoned, and with his longer standing votes he gives extensive cases on the players.

[weirdbeard]

Notable day 2 posts from Beck

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5#p3540815

meh, one of draken or 2b1s is scum imo, and edge was after 2b1s sort of so..

Vote 2b1S

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 9#p3544369

Pressures Johman again

If racerman is playing, I still want the info he had regarding tsg, him being dead doesn't negate I still want the info I asked for.

And now johog is basically doing what rainbow did, defending a scummy player and calling him town, based on gut.

I admire your ability to get strong reads like that.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 4#p3547814

And again...

hate to be a pest racerman, but I am still harping on the info you were supposed to have regarding TSG, especially now he flipped town, I want to know more than ever what this mystery info was.

Please be posting this sometime, you have posted very little and this helps me get a better read on your slot.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 2#p3551932

unvote

Palmar makes sense in that post, but I just can't think johog and 2b1s are scum together, unless scum is defending scum, which doesn't happen often.

I'm not sure where these weird votes came from either, I had him as a slight town read.

Re-read is in order i guess

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 2#p3556292

Ugh, I'm home sick today so at least I get some reading done. I feel one of 2b1s and Johman is scum, I doubt it's both. I honestly feel more is coming from Johman than 2b, except I'm stuck waiting for racerman who has apparently flaked.

vote: 2b

Draken I'm on the fence with, I don't see much coming from him still
Scumhunter just seems to be laying low but not as bad as bvoight, I forgot bvoight was in this game.

Weird and rainbow I think are town, bastion I am not sure on. He has made an awesome case on Draken, but I've done that as scum before too.

I'll re-read more but I like my vote on 2b

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 6#p3556616

Johman tries to get people off the 2birds wagon, claiming town-tells from 2birds. Beck asks 'What town tells'? Palmar does as well. Interestingly, scumhunter also posts around this period, and doesn't even weigh in on the discussion.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 3#p3557273

Unvotes 2birds.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5#p3558345

Votes Palmar for tunnelling.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 3#p3558643

Unvotes

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 9#p3558779

Votes Johman. Expresses doubt in Palmar's cop claim.

Several posts after here speculating on the Johman/2birds neighbour claim.

Final posts of the day are expressing frustration at people hammering on Delta without waiting for a mod confirmation.

[weirdbeard]

Final days can be summed up more quickly for beck

Day 3, Sir Bastion catches that Johman didn't flip mafia neighbour. After mod confirmation, 2birds was such obvious scum that just about all the discussion for this day is null.

Day 4 is again pretty brief. Beck votes scumhunter first and then unvotes and votes Draken.

On re-reading, the chances of Beck being scum look VERY low. Need to re-read into Palmar and Scumhunter now. I think it's most likely scumhunter at this point, but I want to re-read. I remember the last time I tried to re-read the game, I caught a few townie looking things from scumhunter as well, so I'm definitely not prepared to vote him yet.

[weirdbeard]

Pretty much looks like it has to be Scumhunter. Back when Palmar was actually making cases and not just screaming "LYNCH JOHMAN" he was putting a hell of a lot of pressure on both Johman and 2birds. The only thing that makes me doubt this a little is that he changes his tune to being "Johman's scum and is trying to incriminate 2birds who is probably town" on day 2. However, think about it. At this point scum were in a winning position. As far as they could tell, they were on their way to victory and town were essentially clueless at this point. A bus here seems pretty unlikely. Scumhunter on the other hand FoSed his teammates, sure. His votes however, have been on townies. Looking at his posts on ISO, he's spent most of the time just commenting on the game, rather than really hunting for scum.

Go ahead and post your responses to my thoughts if I will. Right now, I'm happy to hammer on scumhunter in a couple of days, barring further information. If I'm wrong, one of Beck and Palmar has played this like a pro.

[weirdbeard]

I'd like to see some reasoning from you too actually Palmar. I could potentially see your vote on Johman as a legitimate bus, and 2birds as distancing. After all, when you really continued to push on Johman, you actually tried to paint 2birds as town day 2. The fact that the point at which you were happy to lynch either of Johman or 2birds (and bear in mind that Rainbowdash was effectively directing town away from a Johman lynch day 1) WAS on day 1 is

[weirdbeard]

Fuck, accidentally submitted halfway through the post. Anyway, the fact that the point at which you were voting for 2birds or Johman WAS on day 1, and was at a point at which it was highly unlikely either would get lynched. (Johman was never a viable lynch for that day, unfortunately, due to the focus of the town. 2birds only became a viable lynch towards the end of the day if I recall correctly (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). Your reads on day 1 seem almost TOO good. Bit of early game distancing to get you in the clear, and a hard bus on Johman doesn't seem that unbelievable from you (in fact, part of my concern regarding you on re-reading was Johman's blowout on day 1). Remember when he said he was feeling really offended by another player and he'd talk about it at the end of the game? What if he wasn't talking about me? What if he was talking about Palmar and was pissed off about a hard bus? I could see that happening in the scum quickchat day 1. Palmar even seems like the kind of guy who'd go "Oh hi, I'm gonna bus you btw cause I'm pro." He strikes me as having that kind of arrogance about him.

Palmar's late game actions mesh very well with the kind of 'I am pro and you are an idiot' attitude I've seen from mostly

scum

players on this site too, I have to say. He's gone from being obv-town to me to being not obvious at ALL in these past couple of days play and I don't like it at all. He's WAY too sure for a townie in lylo.

I'll sum up why Palmar could be scum, FMPOV here:

Day 1: Buses Johman for town cred. Distances from 2birds on day 1. (He'd probably have been happy to bus either, or maybe was just going for the hardcore distancing of getting both). Also don't like how precise he is. He voted for TWO of the scum that day. That's almost like psychic townie skills if he's legit town. It's almost TOO good.

Day 2. Continues to push for a bus on Johman (who was rapidly painting himself very scummy, tbh). At this point reneges on 2birds, saying he's probably town if Johman flips scum. 2birds fucks this up by claiming neighbour, cause he's noobscum. The cop claim could be seen as a way of forcing a cop cc too. I've played a few epic mafia games and a common scum strategy I see is: scum claims cop on a partner, other cop ccs (probably with innocent if they hadn't outed it), guilty gets lynched, then the other cop gets lynched for being the 'fake' cop. Doesn't mesh all that well with his retraction though, although this could come from realising that there is no cop in the game, and maybe he doesn't have to bus after all. (Bear in mind, a town-sided cop would almost DEFINITELY have cc'd here).

And of course since then, his pushes have been for townies. Sure, not going to make this a big part of the case on him cause hell, everyone is capable of being wrong.

In spite of all that, I still think scumhunter is probably scum, I'm just pointing out that Palmar is NOT obv-town at all, and the kind of play I've outlined here suits his personality perfectly IMO. He's just about arrogant enough to do something like this. Also the fact that he's been so happy to throw his vote out anyway, even when he's clearly been doubting my claim yesterday doesn't look all that great for him either. You think I could be scum but you're not worried that I might end up wit the hammer? Admittedly, the same goes for Beck but he made it pretty clear that he believed my claim straight out so it doesn't paint him scummy the same kind of way.

So yeah, talk please. There's still room for discussion today. The only person I really want to clear is Beck. (Who is god damn PRO if he's the scum, I've got just about nothing on him.)

[weirdbeard]

I disagree, personally. Asking if I have a jailkeep ability is arguably just setting up WIFOM. I already get the whole Palmar reasoning vs. Palmar bitching thing, so you don't need to go over that again. Hell, I just posted up a case on why Palmar could be scum.

I think YOU could be scum cause of constant fence-sitting more than anything else. I believe neutrality is a scum tell and you've played that way all game.

[weirdbeard]

How is it WIFOM?

Okay, let's go over this. If I DID have a roleblock ability and say I'm going to use it on someone, all you'd have to do is no kill and essentially paint someone scummy. Easy self-clearing tactic.

[weirdbeard]

Alright, I see your point. It's townie, sure, but on it's own it's not enough to sway me. Plus you must have realised it was pretty unlikely for me to have another ability to use anyway. 3 abilities for a JOAT appeared to be the standard, according to the wiki. I'll concede that it's not WIFOM though. Can you point me to anywhere outside of day 1 where you've made a cohesive case on another player?

[weirdbeard]

Palmar, any response to the points raised on you?