Mini 1248: A Newb's First Mafia (Game over!)

[Lopsy]

Confirmed!

[Lopsy]

Yeah, the pre-game flavor is really well-done, Voided- I only wish I could write that well.

Oh, and I forgot to say this is my confirmation post, but: have fun, everyone!

[Lopsy]

Vote: JAMFTW

For being the only player without a post

or

a vote on him yet.

[Lopsy]

Also note how in eleven short minutes, toxic went from appearing to be all for the Adc-wagon to launching an attack on Thomith. Almost as if she were intending to vote for Thomith all along, huh?

FoS: toxic8e8op

Not taking my eye off Thomith or Adc yet either, though; but they seem townish enough for now.

[Lopsy]

Fair enough.

[Lopsy]

Unvote

as JAMFTW was just a random vote to begin with.

Thomith set it up for someone to come in and defend me, since I really have no way to prove my own defense. Right now I'm trying to figure out why exactly he'd want to do that. And why Toxic did step in and defend me even while still thinking I could be scum.

Before this post I mostly had a null tell on Adc75, since I've seen newbies defend themselves exactly like he is right now from both the scum and town sides. But something about his analysis here strikes me as odd. First, I'm not sure why Adc75's first thought would be that Thomith was trying to get someone else to defend him. Especially since he then states that if that were the case, he wouldn't know what Thomith's motivation would be for doing so.

I think it's possible Thomith wanted to see if a wagon formed on me to look for scum on it. I also think it's possible that Toxic thinks Mith and I are both scum, and that Mith is trying to bus me. This would mean Toxic doesn't believe my -2 vote on RA was truly random.

Then the second paragraph- Adc75, even if looking for scum on a wagon is good hunting, why would you mention it outright in your post? It sounds like you're trying to brush off the entire case against you as an attempt by Thomith & Friends to find unrelated scum.

Vote: Adc75

I'd like an explanation for how you came to the conclusions in the quoted post, please. It's totally possible that it's just newbieness, which is completely fine- heck, this post might be newbieness on my behalf too, since this is my first game on mafiascum also! Either way, I'd like you to share your thought process.

[Lopsy]

Fair enough, Adc75- and clever scumhuntechnique, Thomith!

I was thinking you shouldn't have mentioned Thomith's motivation directly just yet, Adc75, because now that you have, scum won't be able to fall into the trap anymore. But I guess the opportunity for that was over by then anyway, so it's all OK.

Unvote

, *hugs*

Okay, now onto Rope. His reason for voting Thomith, as far as I can tell, was in this post:

Your suspicion of Adc75 was so sincere, you forgot the original reason you voted him. You've also oscillated between "Yeah, Rope and Adc75 are scum because there is no way all three of those votes on RandomActs were random, but I'm not going to bother questioning apple_singer about it" and "I'm not voting yet because nobody's scummy enough" to "I'm keeping my vote on Rope!"

First sentence: AFAIK, Thomith didn't actually vote Adc75. And 'oscillated'? My read on that was an honest change of opinion (when he found out Adc75 was new).

I'm glad that you apparently think I'm town, but currently that sentiment isn't shared. So far, your posts have been rather chaotic, so it's difficult for me to get a good read on you yet.

I'm not saying you're scum. I'm saying that if I were a Cop, I'd investigate you N1.

[Lopsy]

VoidedMafia: I think you forgot to put RandomActs in your last votecount.

...TO THE VOID WITH RANDOMACTS FOR MAKING ME MISS HIM!

First sentence: AFAIK, Thomith didn't actually vote Adc75. And 'oscillated'? My read on that was an honest change of opinion (when he found out Adc75 was new).

Suspicion isn't just voting. It can be a statement. I recommend you go back to Thomith's posts; at the bottom of the page, you can isolate his posts by going to the "Display posts by user" menu. I've also quoted them conveniently above.

I understand that, but my point was more that I saw Thomith's play more as genuine scumhunting than oscillation. Even though he isn't obvtown on my meter, he seems pretty townish to me right now. His last defense to your attack was a little weird, but not scummy. Rope/Thomith looks townvtown to me right now, honestly.

I'm more concerned about those staying on the periphery and not trying to upset or disagree with anyone yet...
Darn, I was

just about

to put a vote for JAMFTW here because he hasn't said anything of content, when he ninja'd me with that post of his.
Well then:

Vote: apple_singer

Of all the people here (excluding GreyICE), he's (she's?) said the least in terms of content, and he hasn't started accusing anyone yet. Here is his only post of analysis:

Hmm, L-2 on page 1 is very interesting. I'm not really buying into the mistake itself that much, seeing as I myself didn't notice that there was already a vote on Random...
Rope's "page 2, scum caught" post seems very weird to me, especially as he/she was like "guess why?" Hiding info is scummy.
Also, about adc...I thought complete newbies could only play 1 game at a time.
Toxic's post 39 seems really scummy to me. There's really no reasoning whatsoever for the vote.
unvote vote toxic
He/she also keeps unvoting and revoting, seeming very opportunistic.

...I don't know about anyone else, but this doesn't really look like good scumhunting to me. He spends about 2 sentences on each person, max. This isn't pressure or asking people to explain themselves, it's just plain... voting for people. There's a difference, folks.

[Lopsy]

Liking GreyICE now that he's posting.

As for Adc... liking him less. I don't know why, but I'm getting some instinctual "acting scummish" vibe from him... sorry I can't point out any specific posts.

Vote: Adc

since, whatever, my vote isn't on anyone else right now.

[Lopsy]

@ Grey. I ask you to think and

this

is what you come up with? Gawwwwwwwd. Errors throughout.

Wrong there too. Incredible

Um, specifics please?

[Lopsy]

Totally fine with what Random's saying, except:

How stupid. It's obvious Grey doesn't know what he's talking about. He's trying to spin logic out of crap. That's why it's called crap logic.

Anyone have some metainfo on whether he usually resorts to name-calling?

Oh, hey Adc: Believe me, I hate not having specific quotes and arguments to pull up against you a lot more than you do. Again, it's complete instinct- some of your posts just sound scummy to me. If you're town, go ahead and keep playing town, and this will change.

But this:

...after re-reading the post where you unvoted me before that one. I didn't even post in between!

Um, maybe the numbers 88 and 107 mean something to you? Hey, I'm new at Mafia, so maybe I'm just completely clueless: factual inaccuracy is a slight scumtell, right?

[Lopsy]

I currently disagree with most of the things RandomActs is saying, but I'm going to wait a little bit before focusing in on him. I want to deal with Adc first.

Oh, and related to that: how do I look at a single player's posts in isolation? It sounds like it would be really helpful.

[Lopsy]

Ooh, nice. Thanks, Thomith & RandomActs.

[Lopsy]

So here's my attempt at a Scumcorder chart. What do you think?



Arrows represent recent movements across the town-activity spectrum.

-RandomActs might just look scummy because he's bad at defending against GreyICE, but he does look scummy
-v2v and JAMFTW aren't active enough for me to read them yet (but I expect these both to change fast: v2v just replaced in, and JAMFTW's busy period is ending.)
-As for everyone else, see my earlier posts in the game.

So, I'm currently going after Adc because, while he's not the most scummy player on my chart, he isn't as vocal as RandomActs is. Hey, Adc, post more so I can read you!

[Lopsy]

Sorry I haven't posted for so long- I was bogged down with essays and the like.

Reading over what's been going on, I see a lot of you are discussing my instinctual vote on Adc! Well, now that he's promised a full reveal this afternoon, I'm reading carefully over all of Adc's and RandomActs's posts. After Adc's reveal, I'm going to reconsider which one of Adc and RandomActs is more suspicious. Unless something big changes between now and then, my vote is going to go on one of those two.

My reads so far:

Adc: was too defensive against the early L-2 suspicion, instead of just brushing it off as a mistake and continuing to play. Part of my instinctual vote on Adc earlier was to see whether or not he would go crazy defending against that also; but he didn't, which I think is a slight towntell. His weird defense is still suspicious, however, and I haven't seen much beyond that from him. If Adc's post this afternoon contains good, legitimate scumhunting, needless to say I'll be happy.

RandomActs: seemed to lash out too much against GreyICE, and a little preachy about his Mafia theory. While Mafia theory itself isn't a scumtell at all, the way RandomActs was putting it as a whole feels scummy. It's fine if he thinks the RVS is useless, or that 'gut' votes are stupid, but there's no need to say that

in lieu of

scumhunting. As page 8 dawns and replies #181 and #185 appear on the horizon, RandomActs is looking better, but this detracts from my earlier suspicion only slightly.

By the way! For anyone who's interested, in the Newbie Game Adc was playing, he died Night 1 as the Town Doctor. Feel free to fish for meta information now: Adc's posts in Newbie 1156, isolated.

[Lopsy]

Holy cow, reading through Adc's posts in Newbie 1156, he was

so town

. Adc, if you'd been acting like that in this game, I would have practically thrown you a party!

[Lopsy]

Also, if GreyICE somehow gets to L-1, and then RandomActs hammers with little/no prior warning citing that previous post, guess who I'm going to make sure gets lynched Day 2.

[Lopsy]

Good. Just checking!

[Lopsy]

Fair enough. Apologies, Voided and Adc!

And, Adc, I'm still waiting for that rigamarole you promised!

*ahem* *points to the post above yours*

[Lopsy]

Darn, I must be pretty sleepy.

I'm waiting for Adc's

prospective replacement's

rigamarole, then. Or something.

[Lopsy]

Just so you all know, my suspicion on Adc has nothing to do with the fact that he brought someone to L-2 on page 1. I don't think anyone who's suspicious of Adc is using "brought someone to L-2 on page 1" as their

main

argument anyway; there are much better reasons afloat to be wary of Adc/DeltaWave.

By the way, answering something:

Anyway, Post #135 took the words out of my mouth for Random. But I find Lopsy scummy as hell, "because my vote isn't anywhere else." Really? Whose wincon does it fulfill to just vote for whoever after RVS is over? Just vote any old townie, doesn't matter as long as they get lynched, right? That's scummier than New Jersey. I found apple scummy but he replaced out I guess. So right now I'm looking hard at RA, Lopsy and Apple but I haven't decided which one of you I want to brutally kill yet so stay tuned for more details.

Indeed, I got an instinctual feeling that Adc was scummy. One reason I was suspicious of Adc was that he was doing too much defense, in combination with not enough scumhunting. The reason I

voted

Adc, sloppy reasoning and all, was to test and see if he would defend against it and overreact.

I'm sure that you don't really believe that. We've all had moments where we post without being 100% current on the vote-count. Just because he started paying attention after his post doesn't mean that he is lying: it means that he's at his computer! Seriously, man. I have a hard time comprehending how a town can think this.

BREAKING NEWS: People [not] at their computer will be less aware of things going on in the thread as people who are actually at their computer! The fact that you can't acknowledge this is mind blowing. I literally can't wrap my mind around this. My only conclusion is that you have to be scum.

RandomActs helpfully took care of the actual content in his post above, so I don't have to! Thanks, RandomActs. Meanwhile, I want to say something about DeltaWave's style. Both sides of the Adc-puts-RA-on-L2-in-page-1 debate have merit, so I'm having a hard time taking his posts seriously when he says he literally can't conceive of a situation in which RandomActs is town; it's either tunneling or a lack of empathy.

To use today's word of the day, his posts are acerbic.

I'm going to follow in RandomActs' footsteps here, because I think I understand his point: now that Adc's gone, DeltaWave is the scummiest player here.

Unvote Adc75, Vote: DeltaWave

Finally, in an unrelated point, Thomith: attacking your attacker is cool, but

only

doing that is not cool. Mind giving your Reads & Reasons on some of the other players?

[Lopsy]

I happen to agree with RandomActs' points about Delta's previous post. I

don't

share RandomActs' reasons for voting Adc/Delta. I care more about 1) How overly defensive Adc was being, in that he never really scumhunted, and 2) How acidic and tunneling Delta's posts are. Again, I think he's defending Adc's L-2 vote on page 1 by attacking his attackers, without 1) defending anything else that he or Adc did, or 2) scumhunting at all except for attacking the people voting for him.

Indeed, I got an instinctual feeling that Adc was scummy. One reason I was suspicious of Adc was that he was doing too much defense, in combination with not enough scumhunting. The reason I

voted

Adc, sloppy reasoning and all, was to test and see if he would defend against it and overreact.

Here's a translation of what you just said: "I didn't have much of a reason to vote adc in the first place, but there was a bandwagon on him and I knew he was town so I wanted to hop on. But now that RA has actually given me a reason, I'll just go with that!"

Um, what? This isn't a translation.

Besides, the only thing I agree with RA about is his

one

post about

Delta's

post. DeltaWave: I know you replaced in and have to read over 10 pages of discussion, so I'll be lenient, but get your facts straight soon, okay?

By the way, people who are not Delta: can you post your reads on Adc/DeltaWave? Maybe I'm just completely off-base; I want to make sure I'm not doing something like tunneling, since I honestly have a fairly strong scum read on this slot, which is quite strange since it's so early in the game.

[Lopsy]

Helpful tip to avoid tunneling:

Scroll your browser window over so you can see everyone's posts but not their names or avatars. After you decide whether a post is more likely town/scum, scroll it back.

Unfortunately, this doesn't work when you're looking at a player with a uniquely defining style or viewpoint. It does help in general, though!

---

Anyway, taking a break from

Adc

Wave/Random for a bit to give short reads on the other players.

Rope: Glad to see he's (she's?) getting back in the action. Now that I'm seeing more of him, his posts are looking very town! Chaotic Good.

toxic8e8op: My opinion on toxic hasn't really changed since the beginning of the game: probably town. Neutral Good.

v2v: When v2v first replaced in, I wasn't really making a huge effort to read into his posts. Now, going back over them, he seems pretty good. Solid reasoning all around, but no big major points- for now, more of a background character, to be honest. Passively Neutral/Good.

JAMFTW: Like v2v, I wasn't reading too much into JAMFTW's posts earlier. I think he's pretty good- I'm willing to consider the possibility that he's scum if something pops up, but he's not on my radar right now. Lawful Neutral.

Thomith: Got a lot worse/less hunty after his initial good impression with Adc; but he's now starting to make up for it on page 11. I have my eye on you, Thomith- just keep hunting, okay? As always (how many times will I have to say this?), defending yourself isn't scummy, but defending yourself in lieu of scumhunting is. You can do both! Passively Neutral for now.

GreyICE: Super awesome back when he was posting, and that hasn't expired yet. Hey Grey, don't feel pressured to come back into the game with one big 5-page long post; I liked your shorter-yet-frequent posts earlier. Townishly Good.

[Lopsy]

Delta can defend himself- he's just choosing to do it by saying the same thing over and over.

Besides, even if there's no way for Delta to defend himself against Adc's previous actions: so what? Just because Adc replaced out doesn't mean we have to drop all our tells on him.

If Wave can't come up with anything new to say, he'd do best just to drop the whole thing, admit we have a bunch of piled-up suspicion on his slot, and start playing for himself.

[Lopsy]

unvote Delta

If I haven't convinced you folks yet, it isn't going to happen. Not yet anyway. But as time goes by, I'm certain more of his true scumminess will be revealed. I'll be watching, and I hope the rest of you will too.

I think this is strange. Random says he's certain more of Wave's true scumminess will be revealed? Then why unvote in the first place?

RandomActs: Why does unvoting Delta help the town here? You say it's because you can't convince anyone else yet, but... you didn't vote for anyone else either, so you're really just taking pressure off of him.

[Lopsy]

As Random holds a firm second place on my Scum Shopping List, I'm also partial to hammering him- depending on what he says next, of course. If we lynch him instead of ADeltaC, then Dr. Wave is going to be at the top of my shopping list tomorrow: bold, red, and underlined three times.

Should we ask Random to roleclaim?

[Lopsy]

By the way, just in case Adc-wannabes want to accidentally forget to check the votecount:

RANDOMACTS IS AT L-1, DON'T VOTE FOR HIM

(yet)

[Lopsy]

As for Rope's bloc idea: as previously stated, I think Rope and toxic are town, but I disagree when it comes to Delta. I'd be hesitant to get in any sort of alliance with Delta, no matter how inconsequential. If we happen to agree about who the scum are, then sure, I'll vote for the same person Rope and toxic (and maybe even Delta) do. Rope's and toxic's arguments

are

carrying more weight with me because of those town reads, so maybe we'll agree after all. But that'll just happen when it happens, okay?

[Lopsy]

Now for RandomActs. This is important enough to go in its own post.

After Rope+Thomith noticed his slip, you should have been putting yourself in Hypothetical Mafia Random's shoes and trying to think of ways to lie yourself out. What would

you

say to defend yourself?

For me, at least, the most obvious thing is to claim that I didn't know scum could have power roles in the first place. The second thing I thought of was simply to write it off as a typo or mistake in calculations; actually, claiming this second one would be so self-endangering that I'd probably have believed RandomActs had he gone with it. The third thing I thought of was to claim a role which would be strange in a game with Mafia powerroles- something like Town Framer or Macho Cop? Not really sure.

But Random ended up going with my very first reaction. Thus, for that reason alone, I'm almost sure his defense was a lie.

However: am I the only one who thinks that scum would probably not be careless enough to say "scum don't have power roles"? Even though Random's claimed reason sounds like a desperate lie, it seems like his initial slip would only make sense in a situation like the one he claimed.

But maybe it

was

just a silly scum mistake. So I'm still willing to hammer Random. But I'm not going to do it yet.

[Lopsy]

Nooo, GreyIce ;_;

Sad Rope is sad.

I don't like the idea of voting blocs.

They're an extremely powerful scum hunting tool. If there's a group of players who have mutual town reads on each other and are willing to vote together, they can fish for reactions from players outside the bloc, and scum can be found through those reactions. The bloc doesn't need to -- and really can't -- be controlled by a single player; it only exists when everyone in it trusts each other.

But you two are already fighting each other and that makes me sad.

Ah, so that's what you mean. I was misinterpreting you; I thought you meant some sort of lynching bloc where we'd team up and kill everyone else off one by one. I'm totally fine with your voting bloc idea, then!

...but I'll have to be convinced that ADeltaWaveC is actually town before I want him on the team. I agree that hypothetically considering a three-player scum group was a town slip from him, but is it slippery enough to slide out of the neutral zone, even the scum zone? I'm not so sure that a single slip can do that.

---

Regardless, v2v time. I think that if RA flips scum, v2v is a hesitantly likely pairing- in that case it would seem like, in post #343, he tried to defend RA without

actually

defending him, if you catch my drift.
But I don't see why, in the case where RA flips town, v2v would also be scummy. It's true that scum defends town, but town also defends town. It seems to me that if v2v was trying to scrape town cred off defending Hypothetical Town RandomActs, he would put up more of a defense: something he could point back to and say "I told you so!" rather than just a feebly-stated hunch.

I have not voiced my opinion for the reasons that (1) I could be wrong

I am fairly confident in my own reads, and do not feel that the town does not need my support in this lynch

Make up your mind, will you?
Can you give us a clearly worded post stating your opinion and reads on RA, without all the wishy-washyness this time? How do you explain his slip- do you feel that he was telling the truth about not knowing about Normal games?

[Lopsy]

GreyICE is back?

*HUGS*

---

Anyway, it looks like we're pretty set on RA today. Any objections to asking for a roleclaim before we run into deadline issues?

[Lopsy]

GreyICE? Guilty? Noooooooo ;_;

Not counterclaiming, so that's everyone- toxic appears to be in the clear. No need to fullclaim yet if staying quiet helps the town. If there's anything in your role, though, that would give a possibility (besides a Framer) for GreyICE to be innocent, that'd be nice to know.

If there really is a Framer, who among us would pick GreyICE to frame? They'd have to think both that 1) he's a competent player and 2) there's general unsureness about his alignment.

-If Grey by some crazy circumstance flips town, I want to 1) ask toxic to fullclaim, and then depending on the answer, 2) take Grey's suggestion and lynch DeltaWave next. But if toxic is somehow a crazy scum, then her claim of non-vanillaness above seems to be anticipating defense against a counterclaim, so I'm still slightly edgy about her.
-If Grey flips scum, I still want to lynch DeltaWave next, but I'd be open to considering Thomith, v2v, and JAMFTW also. Actually, that's everyone except me and toxic, so I guess if Grey flips scum, I'll be reading over Day 1 yet again during the night.

By the way:

Ooh, we have a PR claim (at least, I read it as one, and I know I'm not the only one). There hasn't been any kind of counter claim, so I'm inclined to believe toxic's claim (though I admit there is always room for error/lying/crazy scum tactics). Toxic is one of my stronger town reads, as well. S/he has been helping to drive conversation and isn't content to sit back and let the game stall. I'm happy lynching Grey. If he

does

flip town, then we need to look closer at the Framer possibility. Then it's either toxic or this possible Framer for a day three lynch.

This is overexplanation, and a scumtell.

[Lopsy]

Mafia is not a game of probabilities. Sure, odds are that your framer is going to miss, but odds are what they are. Toxic is either the producer of the single best, most townie cop fakeclaim I've ever seen, or town cop.

She's town cop.

You and Thomith are in the middle of the world's worst panic attack over this.

Lynch Thomith. Lynch DeltaWave.

I need promises.

Jam
V2V
Lopsy

Please promise me each of you, that you're not going to forget this page.

Got it? Each of you promises me this.

Promise. (If you flip town that is.)
But: I have a stronger scum read on JAMFTW than Thomith right now. JAM's stayed under the radar since page 1, and I at least want to put

some

pressure on him at some point. Mind explaining to me why you think Thomith is a better target?

[Lopsy]

When did I say that you should endorse toxic's lynch?

Let's assume you really flip town, Grey.

So what's you're saying is that it's more likely that a framer exists, very luckily targeted GreyICE, toxic targeted GreyICE as well, and the framer is CERTAINLY Thomith or myself.

Or Toxic just fakeclaimed.

Occams razor, which one is more believable?

@Delta's response: You said "Grey" and "you", so yes, you

were

talking to Grey specifically.

[Lopsy]

*reads page 19*

*thinks that hey, DeltaWave and GreyICE might plausibly be scum together doing some last-minute virulent disagreement*

*flips to page 20, reads toxic's post:*

@LOPSY, JAM, V:

do you feel grey and delta may both be scum? or am i hopelessly looking too deeply into their conversation?

*Yay*

Actually, currently, I've been thinking:
-If Grey filps town, go for DeltaWave next (Why? Because Grey says so, and his points make sense)
-If Grey flips scum, go for DeltaWave next (Why? Because in my opinion he was the scummiest on Day 1, and Grey/Delta makes sense)

So that's sort of convenient.

nooooo, i believe JAM's explanation for why he is only posting half a week, and feel his posts are town. thomith is.... a wreck. i feel he may be nervous scum, and even as town seems more of a liability alive than dead. i do not want thomith alive to lylo, but am starting to feel you should lynch D as much as thomith tomorrow no matter grey's flip.

Right- I agree with you that Thomith is... weird. I do wanna put some pressure on JAMFTW at least once, though.

[Lopsy]

My point is that Lopsy wants to do what GreyICE suggests whether GreyICE is scum or town. GreyICE wants to lynch me, and seems strangely confident that I'm a framer, while Lospy interestingly wants to go along with GreyICE's lynch idea even if Grey is scum.

That's because:

*Yay*

Actually, currently, I've been thinking:
-If Grey filps town, go for DeltaWave next (Why? Because Grey says so, and his points make sense)
-If Grey flips scum, go for DeltaWave next (Why? Because in my opinion he was the scummiest on Day 1, and Grey/Delta makes sense)

Iff he does flip scum, then my reasons for wanting to go after Delta are totally disjoint from "since Grey said so".

Also, I'm totally not going to go for a lynch on Delta immediately. I'm just saying "go after", as in "analyze, ISO, and generally interrogate until we get a decent consensus."

If we have a doc, protect Toxic and Toxic, you should investigate Lopsy.

Don't tell toxic who to investigate next. Why? Because, on the off chance that the Mafia doesn't have a way to stop toxic's investigation, then the Mafia will

know

who toxic is investigating next- and after they kill that person, the town gets zero information. So let toxic decide this one for herself, m'kay?

[Lopsy]

Also pretty satisfied with D2.

Fun fact: if Grey does flip town, telling toxic who to investigate and assuring her I'll flip scum

might be

a Framer tell.

If Grey flips scum, it's just an ordinary scummy action. I don't think toxic needs to be told this, but investigate whoever you want- me, Delta, Jam, Thomih, v2v, anyone is fine.

If Jam says he's satisfied as well, barring any last-minute naysayers, we can head right into Day 3.

[Lopsy]

The three possibilities are:

-GreyICE is scum
-toxic is a lying slopsucker
-There's a framer, and they targeted the same person toxic did

As for the second option, the reason I don't put much stock into it is that for scum, claiming cop with a guilty on day 2 is seriously risky. If there's a real cop in the game, the Mafia lose a member outright. The Mafia is ahead already, so there'd be no reason for them to gamble on the chance that there's no cop.

Toxic's non-vanilla cop softclaim is a little unnerving though. As I said before, if she were scum, that'd be a cute enough way to deflect counterclaims. So obviously if Grey flips town, she's going to have to reveal that non-vanilla part of her role, and I guess we'll have to take action depending on what she says. Geh.

For the Framer possibility: how rare exactly are framers? Does anyone have stats/example games?
Preview edit: I totally just went through dozens of completed Mini Normals and I couldn't find a single Framer in any of them. Looks like Delta's right about that!

But seriously, the most likely result by far is Grey flipping scum, in which case we won't have to worry about this stuff. I'd say it's at least 95%.

[Lopsy]

Non-sane cops aren't Normal, and neither are Naive Millers.

[Lopsy]

I assume you mean role redirectors, DeltaWave?

Anyway, v2v: Here's a list of Normal roles.

Now that I know how rare Framers are, I think that both the 0.00001FPS and the Toxic Shock Syndrome hypothses are very, very improbable. Your words on this, Grey?

[Lopsy]

Cops themselves are very rare.

Let's test this! I'm about to look over the last 25 completed Mini Normals and count the number of games a cop appears in.

---

Ready, go: Murder in Sicily, LIPD Mafia, Tough Guy Mafia, Mini 1190, Mafiamatical Mafia, Mini 1180, Mini Game 1177, Powerrox93's Mini Normal I, Mini 1156

That's 9, or 36% of the last 25 completed games. I wouldn't call that very rare, myself.

[Lopsy]

WOOHOO

[Lopsy]

Also

our power level

INFORMATION

Not JUST the scum power level, but

also

that GreyICE thinks his scumpartner might not be a good enough player to figure out there's probably no doctor -> shoot toxic. Everyone: This Is Important

[Lopsy]

Busy with homework today, but I'll have a post up tomorrow concerning Grey interactions on D1.

I just want to say this: Thomith, saying that you're town doesn't mean a thing to us. Several of your defensive posts so far have been absolutely nothing except you stating that you're town, and that's really not helping your case.

To add to the questions we want Thomith to answer: who do

you

think is scum and why?
Why do you think many of us suspect you, and why, according to you, are those suspicions wrong?
That should help you start defending yourself for real. I don't want to lynch someone who's bad at defending; I want to actually be able to tell the difference between a desperate panicking Mafioso and a stuttering high-strung townie.

[Lopsy]

D1 GreyICE interactions time! If you think I got your interaction with Grey wrong, or think I left out something, then say so. Dead players are also included for control group purposes.

RandomActs

Heavy fight with RandomActs throughout most of D1
Lots of interaction

toxic8e8op

When Grey stopped posting: "grey, noooo, don't drop out too D:"
Grey: called toxic town in 92
Fairly little interaction overall

Rope

When Grey stopped posting: asked mod to prod him
Little interaction overall

Lopsy

Best buddies with Grey the whole day through. (I really have nothing to say about this, other than how surprised I was when toxic came out with that cop report. Whoopsie-daisy!)
When Grey stopped posting: "Nooo, GreyIce ;_;"
Fairly little interaction overall

JAMFTW

Voted Grey for lurking early on
Grey: called JAM a newbie in 92
Overall, little interaction

Adc/DeltaWave

Grey: openly stated that he thought Delta was scum (this also continued to D2)
Mild tension between Delta and Grey in D1
Fairly little interaction overall

Thomith

Grey: called Thomith town in 92
Thomith: asks Grey to explain why he's town (response: "cause I can read you, bro" - et cetera, continues a little in further posts)
Grey: later, changes his mind and says he thinks Thomith is scummy
Fairly frequent interaction, but not particularly positive or negative

applesinger/v2v

Nothing! v2v mentions Grey's name exactly one time during D1, in a side comment on the Grey/Random fight
Almost zero interaction overall

[Lopsy]

Thomith: seems to me like you're attacking a single piece of evidence against him-

viz.

, that Delta is accusing you of being scum just because he's twitchy- without even mentioning my or v2v's posts. If you don't acknowledge everyone's questions here, it's almost like using a strawman argument, and we all know that you don't want to do that.

Can you, in one big post, briefly address all the concerns against you that you haven't answered so far? Look no further back than this page and the previous one; I think you'll find plenty of questions to answer from there alone.

I really don't want to lynch someone who's just being generically terrible at defending.

[Lopsy]

Thomith: seems to me like you're attacking a single piece of evidence against you-

viz.

, that Delta is accusing you of being scum just because you're twitchy-

EBWOP for failing to proofread grammar!

[Lopsy]

lol at that time it seemed to me that everyone was thinking there was a framer and if i went against it i sure as well would have had people down my throat for that as well.

So you'd rather let the town go astray than draw attention to yourself? Even in the case where you're not Mafia, sorry, but I really don't want you to be the deciding factor if the game reaches a 3p LyLo.

I vote for who i think is scum which is hunting scum, kthx.

This contradicts something you said, let's see... one sentence ago.

[Lopsy]

Really? How does it contradict what i said?

What I mean is that you said, and I quote, "I vote for who i think is scum". However, one sentence prior to that, you say that you didn't go against the framer idea because "if i went against it i sure as well would have had people down my throat for that as well." This implies that you thought the framer idea was incorrect, but you didn't have the guts to support that with your words or your vote.

[Lopsy]

It says that one of your reasons for not speaking your thoughts about the framer idea, was that you were afraid others would disagree with you.

Even if this isn't a scumtell in itself, it's definitely a "don't let Thomith live to LyLo" tell.

I'm willing to ask for a roleclaim if two other people agree.

[Lopsy]

Ok thinking about it i am thinking that it is best if you lynch me now.
Yes i havent been asked to claim yet but i am a Vanilla Townie.
I Obviously dont want to be mislynched but i would prefer it now than lylo.

Still announce any intent to hammer, folks.

Also, even if you want to hammer (personally, I'm conflicted), can we wait until after Grimmy arrives? I don't want a new replacement showing up for the first time at LyLo.

[Lopsy]

Good luck, Grimmjow! It must be tough replacing into a 25-odd page game.

My question for Grimm: What flip (if any) surprised you the most?

[Lopsy]

JAMFTW is V/LA for 12 hours on Mondays and Tuesdays, and sometimes Sundays.

So nanoka?~

[Lopsy]

Also, totally reading Thomith as well-intentioned VI right now.

[Lopsy]

ISOing Thomith in his completed games now. I'm going to see how accurate I am in guessing his alignment. (So far, I have 1 of the first 2 correct- guessed town both times and was wrong once, which is a pretty terrible record.)

[Lopsy]

Responses are in italics within the quote, to make things easier on myself.

Wall, Part 1.

Spoiler:

Also note how in eleven short minutes, toxic went from appearing to be all for the Adc-wagon to launching an attack on Thomith. Almost as if she were intending to vote for Thomith all along, huh?

WIFOM like crazy, no?

FoS: toxic8e8op

Not taking my eye off Thomith or Adc yet either, though; but they seem townish enough for now.

So you decided that keeping a RVS vote on someone is more important than voting someone that you legitimately think might be scum?

Toxic8e8op already had a vote on her, and I had thought- both from reading countless newbie games, and from the earlier spat with Adc- that putting multiple votes on one person early in the game is a bad idea. Of course, now I know better- that was just bad play.

I'm not saying you're scum. I'm saying that if I were a Cop, I'd investigate you N1.

Not a fan of the potential directing of a PR here. It says to me "HEY, LOOK OVER THERE, DON'T LOOK AT ME."

My intention there was to make it seem like I theoretically could be the cop to try to draw the Mafia night kill.

Liking GreyICE now that he's posting.

As for Adc... liking him less. I don't know why, but I'm getting some instinctual "acting scummish" vibe from him... sorry I can't point out any specific posts.

Vote: Adc

since, whatever, my vote isn't on anyone else right now.

THIS BUGS THE EVER LOVING SHIT OUTTA ME. ESPECIALLY SINCE WE KNOW GREY WAS SCUM.

Yeah, it bugs me too. I hate how wrong I was about Grey, and I'm aware that my close buddying with him Day 1 is going to draw a lot of questions onto me now. Basically, I had read Grey as full town, and I was totally and entirely wrong. OOPS!

@ Grey. I ask you to think and

this

is what you come up with? Gawwwwwwwd. Errors throughout.

Wrong there too. Incredible

Um, specifics please?

I can also see this as coming to said scumbuddy's aid.

I've actually been coming to a lot of other people's aids during this game. I help people who I think are town (though I try not to do it in a way which lets them get away with not saying anything, in the potential case where they're scum, as was true here.) Plus, if RandomActs did have a legitimate case against GreyICE, I actually did want to know what it was.

...after re-reading the post where you unvoted me before that one. I didn't even post in between!

Um, maybe the numbers 88 and 107 mean something to you? Hey, I'm new at Mafia, so maybe I'm just completely clueless: factual inaccuracy is a slight scumtell, right?

And this seems like an attempt to pass off blame to another; ie: HEY, ANSWER WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS THE CASE IN MAFIA GAMES SO THAT YOU CAN SEE THAT THIS IS WHAT HE'S DOING

Yes, you are completely right. I was phrasing it like that specifically in order to persuade other people. And?

[Lopsy]

Lopsy, why aren't you voting anyone...

Because Thomith is already at L-1.

...and if you had to vote someone right now (regardless of the L-1 situation) who would it be?

You. I don't have any reason to vote for anyone except Thomith, and I don't want to lynch just yet, so I'd rather place a vote on someone who doesn't already have one. That narrows it down to v2v and Grimmjow, and of those two, I have a slightly townier read on v2v overall.

---

Ran through all of Thomith's completed games really quickly and got around a ~60% record on guessing his alignment. I'm not sure how good or bad that is, but it's over half at least, so I'm pretty happy. Also, discovered that Delta is correct: Thomith is not a VI. Also, discovered that I think Delta is town now.

[Lopsy]

Do you not see the failure in logic here? You didn't know that there was a cop in the set-up, and there very well may not have been one. By saying you were trying to draw the NK, you are essentially saying that you had already given up on the game since you didn't know what, if any, PRs were in the game.

Huh? I don't understand the point behind your objection here. Of course I didn't know there was a cop- so what?

Where else have you "come to a lot of other people's aids"? I'm not seeing it during my quick re-read.

For a really flagrant example, see how I was trying to help Thomith defend himself earlier today. I may keep doing that, depending on what happens.

I don't have a serious issue with Grimmjow's other bolded comments- unless he asks me to explain further on any specific point, everything else is mostly something that you can interpret whichever way you think is right. (Plus, I'd mostly just be repeating myself.)

[Lopsy]

Delta, I read through your one-on-one with Thomith. Cripes.

Unless Thomith has already resigned himself to being lynched (which he shouldn't!), he's being pretty stubborn. I think it would take less effort for him to link back to a satisfactory answer, if he's already posted something he thinks is one, than to keep arguing with Delta.

[Lopsy]

Small correction: the first L-1 in Grimmjow's chart, by Adc, should actually be L-2. Also, frankly, I don't understand half of the chart- it seems to have people still voting for RandomActs far into Day 3.

I don't see you defending him anywhere toDay. Care to link it? All I see is you asking the obvious target questions to see if he'll flail more without committing to a solid read.

I'm not defending him, not in the least! I'm trying to help him defend himself, because all I had seen before was bad defense. Indeed, that's the precise reason why I didn't have a solid read before. See, e.g., my post near the top of page 23.

EBWOP: Also, I'm taking into account that your only vote D2 was on Delta, who was the main one attacking Grey.

No, I didn't vote for anyone Day 2. Do you mean Day 1? If so, my vote had been on Delta since back when he was arguing against RandomActs, far before he ever started attacking Grey (which happened Day 2 after the cop report, anyway.)

You should just hammer your buddy and make this easy on everyone.

This reeks of trying to exploit the "accidental town slip" of miscounting the number of scum, something that Rope mentioned back in D1.

---

V2v seems to be shying away from the discussion, majorly. The last thing he posted that wasn't one sentence long was all the way back when he put Thomith at L-1. V2v, care to give us some of your thoughts right now? Please?

[Lopsy]

I mean that Delta knows full well that there's only one scum left among us, so I'm not sure what he's trying to achieve by speculating that Thomith and I are scumbuddies, and it sounds as though he's trying to use an "accidental town slip". I'll explain:

Remember Day 1, when Rope pointed out that Delta's post hunting scum triplets was a town silp? It was explained very clearly back then that there are only two scum in this game, for sure. So Delta's post today seems like he's milking this for all that it's worth- like his "town slip" was and is on purpose. Unless he has another explanation for it...?

[Lopsy]

Dude, 3 v 6 would mean we were at LyLo

yesterday

. Delta knows full well there aren't three scum in this game.

[Lopsy]

So, guys,

I'm really sad that I can't vote right now (because he's already at L-1) for: Thomith

I'll pretend I'm voting for him and explain my own reasoning.

As DeltaWave so kindly pointed out, Thomith is a good player, so I'm unnerved by his unwillingness to defend himself properly. Also, as Delta

also

pointed out, there's the issue of the D2 vote switcharoo.

But those two are just other people's deductions, not mine. Here's why I'm really suspicious of Thomith right now: his D1 interaction with GreyICE.

When Grey offhandedly calls Tommy "town", he responds by asking Grey to say exactly why he's town.

Grey sort of shrugs him off with "I can read you, bro".

Later in the day, Thomith keeps bugging Grey with little questions, and Grey keeps trying to shrug him off and ignore him. It looks like Thomith is trying to scrub town cred off of Grey, while Grey is trying to keep their relationship to a minimum, ne?

grey mind explaining why i am town?

As previously mentioned.

do you find the scumhunting technique was a way to get myself out of saying someone was scummy or that i was a scummy move to pull it?

Why didn't I see this before now? This is soooooooooooo trying to milk the cow for town cred. Seriously, read this and tell me how it could possibly be a townish interaction.

Oh care to explain how i am a mess?
Any game theory to prove how this could be town or scum?

This is in D2, after GreyICE was copped out. Grey had already been distancing himself from Thomith from near the end of D1, but Thomith is still asking for help from his partner. Note that he quotes this and asks it

again

in the same post where he pulls the Grey/v2v vote switcharoo.

[Lopsy]

J'agree. I'm willing to hammer, and will do so if no one has anything else major they want to say.

[Lopsy]

Right. I was really scared that Delta would die, because I hardly had a single read on v2v.

Delta, you're attacking Grimmjow for hammering Thomith without explanation, but you very well told him to hammer in your previous post. Explanation please?

The preponderance of Vanilla Townie flips leads me to think that there's at least one power role among the two of you. Care for a massclaim, anyone?

[Lopsy]

Dude, did you just vote me and then unvote me? Right after declaring "no one vote yet"? That's the most obvious scum gambit ever. You're trying to make us think that you have the town intentions of avoiding a quick lynch, by quickly correcting your *accidental* vote. I might believe that it really was a mistake if you hadn't EXPLICILTY told us all to not vote one post earlier.

Plus, the persuasive trick of first going after Grimmjow and then completely ignoring him and attacking me, cleverly implying that my one post was a monumental scum slip that should make everyone, including Grimmjow, immediately convinced - convinced enough to ACCIDENTALLY VOTE IN LYLO.

---

I've already nigh-on claimed VT, by the way.

[Lopsy]

Right. I was really scared that Delta would die, because I hardly had a single read on v2v.

Delta, you're attacking Grimmjow for hammering Thomith without explanation, but you very well told him to hammer in your previous post. Explanation please?

The preponderance of Vanilla Townie flips leads me to think that there's at least one power role among the two of you. Care for a massclaim, anyone?

Oh, Lopsy. You are scum.

You make an excellent point; the preponderance of VT does lead you to believe there's one power role left. That's a very reasonable assumption to make... that there is one VT, one Mafia, and one PR.

Here's the problem: I'm the Vanilla Townie. Which means that one of Lopsy or Grimm is a power role.

And if you have to ask, Lopsy, you are scum.

Vote: Lopsy

By the way, mind explaining how any of this has

anything

to do with why you think I'm scum? Other than how you're pretending to be

suddenly, inextricably

convinced so that you can exploit Grimmjow's stated suspicion?

[Lopsy]

I see what you mean now. It might have to be between you and me, Delta. Waiting for Grimmjow to claim.

[Lopsy]

Damn. I was trying to trap Grimmjow into saying he has a PR, by saying that it would be plausible (and I suspect that Delta was also helping with that), but he didn't fall for it.

(As for the reason why a PR isn't plausible: at the end of D2 Grey mentioned the scum powerlevel and said it was too low for the town to have anything else major. Since he didn't have any other contact with his partner, I'm inclined to believe he was telling the truth rather than misdirecting us.)

[Lopsy]

Since Grimmjow didn't claim a power role, when supposedly it would have been very advantageous for him to do so, then either 1) he's town or 2) he realized the trap me (and Delta?) were setting. I'm not sure how obvious the trap was in the first place, so I can't give you exact probabilities, but remember that it's lowered by the fact that Grimmjow replaced in long after the GreyICE quote I mentioned above.

[Lopsy]

That's a question that will take me a while to answer, so I'll probably have to wait until tomorrow (damn NanoWrimo.)

In the meantime, I just want to ask: Grimmjow, in addition to Delta-scum/Delta-town and me-scum/me-town, could you also report on JAMFTW-scum/JAMFTW-town? I would very much like to know how you're analyzing your predecessor's actions.

[Lopsy]

Town!DeltaWave: DeltaWave, clever and inquisitive, is a helpful and aggressive townie. After replacing in, he attacked and hunted all around; although he turned out to be wrong in attacking RandomActs, he made up for it Day 2. There, he correctly refused any possibility of a framer, and provided the town with valuable information, such as how rare framers really are. On Day 3, he helped orchestrate the Thomith lynch- which flipped wrong, but seriously, Delta's whole campaign was dripping with good intentions all the way through. Finally, on Day 4, Delta and I teamed up to try to trap Grimmjow into claiming a power role.

Scum!DeltaWave: DeltaWave, ruthless like a hyena, is a treacherous and devious Mafioso indeed. On Day 1, he helped Grey orchestrate the RandomActs lynch, and then proceeded to distance himself firmly from Grey on Day 2. Even though this distancing was AFTER Grey was cop-confirmed guilty, he's been getting relatively little flak over the last two days- possibly because he's been careful to provide a steady stream of information, such as the rarity of framers and Thomith's meta of being a good player. The whole time, Delta has being dropping obviously fabricated "accidental towntells", such as pretending he doesn't know how many scum there are, voting accidentally in LyLo, and- just in his previous post- expressing surprise over Thomith's flip to pound into us that he

definitely

didn't already know what it would be, no sirree.

Town!Grimmjow: Grimmjow, bright-eyed and strong-hearted, is our relatively new addition to the town. The original player, JAWFTW, was busy for a lot of the time, but when he wasn't busy, he eagerly participated in the discussion. After JAMFTW replaced out due to an unfortunate pileup of work, we were lucky enough to get an intense and active scumhunter: Grimmjow. After putting in a lot of time Day 3 to catch up, Grimmjow was shuttled into Lylo with almost no background experience in the game. Yet, even though she's been having to work hard, she's been scumhunting sharply and tactically- I couldn't ask for a better replacement myself.

Scum!Grimmjow: JAMFTW, sneaky and mischievous, is the Mafioso who prefers to orchestrate his plan from the background, letting the others turn on each other, like these aliens from a science fiction story I forget the name of. During his tenure, he participated in the discussion but didn't add anything to it. He preferred to stay by the wayside so that his opinions wouldn't affect any game events, and so that we could never allocate any blame to him. His workload on Mon-Wed helped him maintain this guise- the rest of us were automatically disinclined to question him about his lack of involvement. Then, Grimmjow replaced in- a foil to JAMFTW, if you will. He immediately attacked me, hoping for the town cred of rejecting Thomith's lynch. On Day 4, he cleverly avoided me and DeltaWave's trap by correctly claiming VT. The question remains: will we catch him?

[Lopsy]

Unfortunately, I'm on the fence right now. Writing that post helped me cement some of my thoughts, but I'm honestly still very 50/50 between Delta and Grimmjow: for every piece of evidence I have against one, I have a corresponding accusation against the other.

I'll ISO both Delta and Grimmy between now and tomorrow and tell you how this changes.

For now, I have my own question to ask everyone:

Why do you think you made it to LyLo?

I'll give my own answer after Grimmjow and Delta do.

[Lopsy]

Lopsy post 500 and 501 leave a bad taste in my mouth. Stating the obvious to gain town points.

Neither post 500 nor 501 is mine- which posts do you mean?

I'm also suspicious that Lopsy in post 648 (near the end of the day yesterday) said that she "thinks Delta is town." Now I'm down to a 50/50 shot of being town. Interesting odds considering where we're at. Sounds like you want to go back on your Delta townread so you can hedge your bets between the two of us.

I still have a townread on Delta; the problem is that as of yesterday, I had a townread on Grimmjow too, so they canceled out.

After the ISOs, I must say that I'm more suspicious of Grimmy now. I'll hold my thoughts and reasons until after he posts.

[Lopsy]

Ah, okay. But how exactly are those posts stating the obvious? If you mean post 531, I think my idea about GreyICE possibly not trusting his scumbuddy to be a very good player was fairly subtle; if you caught that as obvious immediately, woah, good job. If you mean post 530: yes, "WOOHOO!" is stating the obvious- sue me, I was excited and wanted to shout it!

---

Grimmjow, I understand you have a group project; can you give us any projected date when you'll be finished with it, though?

[Lopsy]

I agree to the extension also, of course.

Furthermore, I will remark that, excepting circumstances/PMs I don't know about: unless Grimmjow is the scum, it would be unfair of VoidedMafia to grant an extension hinging on open mutual agreement. Only scum would refuse, hence that would be suicide, hence no one will refuse, hence the extension will be granted regardless of who wants it. Therefore, the extension is unfair unless Grimmjow, the player who proposed it, is the remaining scum. (This isn't an immediate conviction, as there are several ways it can be wrong, e.g. "I was planning to have an extension in the first place; I knew that everyone would have to agree, but I decided to ask anyway" or "When offering the extension, I didn't think about the (possibly hypothetical) ramifications of the remaining scum being forced to agree.")

The second question is: is it ethical for me to use such a scumtell? It's not a perfect "Grimmjow must be guilty," because of the reasons mentioned above. However, I don't think trying to WIFOM the mod is within the spirit of the game. On the other hand, it's hard for me to artificially discard this from my suspicion...

[Lopsy]

Wow, I don't see why Grimmjow would turn down an extension. Maybe he doesn't need it, sure- but that's like throwing away a twenty-dollar bill because you already have enough money for the strawberry ice cream cone.

I would say that Grimmy is scum that tried to pull some quick town points by asking for an extension, then when he realized Voided was about to actually grant it, hurriedly PM'd a statement that he doesn't want one. However, you'd think that Voided would say the PM was from an anonymous player in that case, right?

[Lopsy]

Wahey. I'd wait for Grimmjow's response, but I severely doubt there's anything he can say which would convince me not to do this.

Vote: Grimmjow

That was a strange ending. I'm a little disconcerted. Personally, I think, I would have made extension voting by private messages, or not divulged that Grimmjow was the one who sent the dissenting PM. In the end, though, I'm not a qualified mod, so I probably don't know what I'm talking about.

[Lopsy]

You're right, Delta.

*high fives all around*

[Lopsy]

That's okay VoidedMafia, it was a fun game despite the mistakes~ *hugs* I'm modding my first game right now, and I only wish it would go as smoothly as this one. Props to everyone involved, and good game!

[Lopsy]

By the way, VoidedMafia, I see that you have Touhou Mafia in your list of upcoming games. Not to be nosy, but do you know approximately when we'll be able to join and/or pre-in for that?

[Lopsy]

Everyone here was great to play with! I still hope I end up on a scumteam with Lopsy at some point. :p

Haha, thanks- I hope so too! When it happens, if anyone quotes these posts, just laugh and whistle innocently

[Lopsy]

Are you releasing the scum/dead QTs, by the way?

[Lopsy]

I'll pre-in too, I suppose.