Mini 1281: Walrus Mafia (Game Over)

[Rainbowdash]

First again.

Vote ML

Wagon go.

[Rainbowdash]

I like where my vote is.

Where is my ML wagon?

[Rainbowdash]

No seriously, where is my ML wagon?

His vote switch for a null tell mixed with questions that are more or less theory discussion distraction merits a mini wagon at the very least.

[Rainbowdash]

Ninjaed. I'm not asking random off the cuff questions here. I have a purpose, rainbow.

Also, examining the abstract, if you think no lynch voting is a null tell, I have a hard time seeing how you connect the dots to theory discussion being not a null tell.

If you can prove to me that Elli does this as scum, I will listen to you on it. Until then, its a null tell since its just as likely for scum or town to do it, maybe even neglegably more likely for town to do it. My bits are on its a null tell though. I really dont mind it even if he is planning to snap vote in response to it since it would kill the insufferable RVS, ive done that already though.

For your questions, attempting to initiate pointless theory discussion is a scum tell since all it really can accomplish is getting everypony up in arms about what is the right thing to do. This isnt an open so theory isnt a page one discussion topic. Its just like when somepony trys to start the RQS, it does absolutely nothing to move the game along and will likely create rifts between camps that disagree over basic ideas of how to play the game. I see no way these questions can even start to accomplish something that will move the game in a forward direction.

[Rainbowdash]

If you can get me a decent sized sample I will look at this more. Head cold is really bugging me right now though, not about to go slogging through a bunch of games. Also make sure he didnt replace into games you are pulling from, 1219 I know he replaced into because I was in that one.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, you asked for some evidence, I provided it, now its not good enough? Can you explain what exactly were you looking for?

Clean list or something like that.

[Rainbowdash]

In 10 games voting no lynch being scum in at least 5 @ P=.33 is ~21%

Thats just hoofscratch though so it could be wrong.

I kinda agree with Hoopla though on this

unvote
Vote Delta

[Rainbowdash]

Vote:Ellibereth

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Ludi is a Magister - He must be right.

Awesome. So what are your thoughts on the first few pages since we are well out of the RVS.

[Rainbowdash]

That's arbitrary. When did it end? Page 2? Post 30?

If specificity is what you are looking for; unoffically post 12, officially 15

Next, I *did* post my thoughts on the first couple of pages. They just happen to be brief thoughts for the moment.

Ok, because that vote looked very RVSy. Im assuming it was actually serious then for the reason that ML said?

Thinking I may have mixed up my calculation too when I started trying to figure out the inverse of it. Not even sure its really useful information though in the end without a bigger data set. Meta is always a little touchy either way but I guess behavioral is better than how its applied most of the time, although I still say meta basically taps out at being good for determining player strength.

Yeah I messed up probability when thinking about it since I should be taking 10 game sample at .25 chance of being scum in each game, and then calculating chance of five (or more for completion sake) scum flips which gets dropped to 8%. Might actually be viable but I would want to see counterexamples for games he is town and does/doesnt RVS first. Think this is just going to start getting in the way of discussion though so im doing to drop it at my math correction.