Minvitational Game 1

[jeep]

Hmm...

vote: IS

To me IS always seems to act like mafia. Also, I've never been able to lead a bandwagon against him.

-JEEP

[jeep]

*laugh* Gotta love the simul-post! Esp, since we voted for each other.

-JEEP

[jeep]

Antrax, no, but it took me three minutes to read the posts, press reply, and then type my message (and dealing with the pets in there too, I think). I probably had IS' message in my post reply window, but I rarely look down below the message box unless I'm trying to remember something. And I don't always refresh the page before making my post, only if I take a long time to read it.

-JEEP

[jeep]

I feel the need to put a really stong

FOS: Soothsayer

.

Werebear, in this *series* it would be bad to lynch someone as mafia because the mafia didn't kill them first night. It will certainly lead to a townie being lynched with no one getting any information in a later game. I'm sure you understand this, I just wanted to make sure it was explicitly stated for the spectators.

-JEEP

[jeep]

OK, so we're back up. Werebear, check your numbers again, there are nine living, not seven, and it's only day two so two investigations, not three.

Without accounting for the doc here are the numbers:
Cop knows:
0 mafia, 0 townies: don't reveal 10.8% vs 31.9%
0 mafia, 1 townies: don't reveal 12.5% vs 44.2%
0 mafia, 2 townies: don't reveal 17.1% vs 58.8%
1 mafia, 0 townies: don't reveal 22.9% vs 36.2%
1 mafia, 1 townies: don't reveal 24.4% vs 48.4%
2 mafia, 0 townies: REVEAL 46.7% vs 46.4%

I will work on figuring out how the doc figures into this, but the difference is pretty well weighted towards not revealing.

I've been meaning to post the source in the programming mafia thread.

-JEEP

[jeep]

*sigh* All this theory is interesting, but will probably lose newbies who read this. I think the numbers discussion should be taken to another thread.

Honestly, no ones numbers count except mine, because they are the only ones I'll truly trust. If we play this M:TG style we have the greatest chance of winning, even with only one doc.

Everyone who is pro-town should

VOTE: IS

because the cop (that's me) found him as mafia. Doc should protect me greater than 99% of the time. I think we can afford the slight loss in equity we get if the doc protects me 100% of the time. I have one townie and one mafia investigated so far.

If we vote no lynch on the days I find no mafia, I get a probability of the town winning of >50%.

Also, I think that several people have eliminated themselves from the mafias list of potential cops, making their odds of hitting me better.

This will be a boring game if the doc continues to live. Here's to hoping it's a boring game.

-JEEP

[jeep]

AS to why I posted even though my previously posted numbers said I shouldn't: My numbers assumed a lynch every day. If we do not lynch on the days that I only know innocents, then we win more than we lose.

If I am not the cop, then the real cop should come out and denounce me. I think that is clear. Since no one did, I think it's obvious that I'm not the cop.

If I AM the cop, then anyone who denounces me will get me lynched. Then the town has two mafia revealed and a hidden doc. Good for the town. So no one would denounce me (except possibly IS).

Also, notice my vote history: I voted IS on the first day and never changed my vote. I investigated IS because he ALWAYS seems like mafia.

-JEEP

[jeep]

Antrax:

1) I felt that I was at greater risk of being killed by the mafia than just random because I parked a vote on IS first day and because several people have revealed themselves as not the cop (IMO).

2) I re-ran the numbers including No Lynch as an option and it was better that I reveal

Mole is the only person who hasn't posted without denouncing me.

-JEEP

[jeep]

Sorry for the double post, I accidently submitted while I was editing that last sentence. It should read:

Mole is the only person who hasn't posted since I revealed. No one else has denounced me.

-JEEP

[jeep]

Antrax: I got 0.683745185183

I.e. 68% chance of town win if mafia kills are random, doc always protects me, and we lynch only if I reveal a mafia.

I did the whole thing by hand, I SHOULD program it into my program as a possibliity.

-JEEP

[jeep]

Antrax, how did you run the numbers? I think you must look at the probability of town winning and then, to find out mafia prob, subtract it from 1.

Kind of like finding the odds of NOT getting two heads in a row when you flip a coin... you can't say I have 1/2 of not getting head the first time and 1/2 of not getting heads the second time so multiply them and I get 1/4 of not getting two heads in a row... I'm certain that one of us did an analogous thing. I hope it's you . I just ran the same analysis assuming one less townie and got a lower win probability, which seems to make sense, so I am convinced that you must look at it the way I did. (I really hope that I am right, because if not, then I screwed up in revealing.)

-JEEP

[jeep]

I'll run your program when I get home, I don't have a pascal compiler here at work. I hope I find a bug

-JEEP

[jeep]

Will you send the new version to me (or post it in the programming mafia thread?)

-JEEP

[jeep]

No, just innocents.

vote: no lynch

-JEEP

[jeep]

unvote: No Lynch

I know two innocents that are still alive other than myself. That means we have 3 known innocents and four unknown, with two of the unknowns being mafia.

Do we know if there is a godfather in this game or not?

So let's assume no:
7 living, 3 known innocent

So if we lynch today we have:

• 6 living, 3 known innocent, 2 mafia
  Tomorrow, I know both mafia....
  
• 6 living, 3 known innocent, 1 mafia
  Tomorrow, worst case, we have 5 living, 3 known. We lynch an unknown and have 50% chance of win there, if he is townie, then the next day we have 3 living, one mafia, two are known innocent...

How does this sound:
I pick a name of someone I have not investigated. If that person claims doctor, we unvote and ask the real doctor to revel himself/herself. If no one does, then we vote one of the other three, since two of them must be mafia. If someone denounces the doctor, we believe the denouncer IF he/she is on my list of innocents, otherwise we give everyone else a time to reveal themselves as doctor. If no one else does we lynch one of the remaining unknowns. In the unlikely event that all four of the unknown players reveal themselves to be doctor, then we don't lynch today.

If that person does not claim doctor then we lynch that person and win. If we lynch a townie, we are assured a win.

Jalyn, mith, mole, Quailman, Samadhi, Werebear remain alive in addition to myself...

Anyone see a hole? If not, then I'll pick a name, that person will claim a role, and then we'll lynch that person if he/she doesn't claim doctor.

-JEEP

[jeep]

OK... Werebear, are you the doc? If you say no, you get lynched.

-JEEP

[jeep]

I'll only give out my list of innocents AFTER the doc is killed.

-JEEP

[jeep]

If Werebear is townie:
6 living, 2 mafia, 2 investigated innocents and myself.

So
1/3 of the time, I find the last innocent and we win four sure.

2/3 I find a mafia:
1/4 mafia kills innocent I haven't investigated, we win
3/4 mafia kills someone I investigated
2/3 it's a townie, we win

1/3 that is doctor, so we have 2 mafia, one known; 2 investigated innocents and myself. Two concealed. We have 1/2 of winning and 1/2 of losing

we win 58.33% of the time... less often than I thought originally.

I'll have to work the numbers with no lynch.

-JEEP

[jeep]

oops,

vote: werebear

-JEEP