Mini Game 26 - Night Three!

[Mickey]

confirm

[Mickey]

I'm a newbie - trying to make sense of all of the posts.

I tend to agree with the 3 killer theory.
1) crossbow / Captain Blicero
2) club / Green Crayons
3) gun / ? unsuccessful attempt

Cuban Smoker are you discounting the 3 killer idea? if so please explain the logic behind your thinking. I agree with the crossbow and dismemberment probably being the work of one killer.

[Mickey]

If I am reading you correctly - you are attributing the murders that took place to two different killers (Green Crayons killed by mafia, Captain Blicero killed by another killer) but the gunshot was a random firing.
Is this correct?
Maybe 2 killers besides mafia would be unlikely - but then again which would be most likely?

... a random firing that means nothing?
... a mafia miss?

I lean towards the 3 killer theory.

still not ready to cast a vote.

[Mickey]

very interesting, I defer to the voice of experience.

[Mickey]

Could it be possible that one of the killings was performed by a vigilante - which would be a town role.
That would make 3 possible kills per night...
1 - vigilante
2 - serial killer
3 - mafia
One is an attempt at a "good" kill, another though malicious could go either way, and the last is always aimed at wiping out the town.

Now I'm just trying to match the weapons with the possible killers.

The clubbing and crossbow / dismemberment I am pretty sure were the work of serial killer and vigilante - though I am not sure whom did which,
but the smoking gun I am fairly certain points to mafia.

Mafia might try to put that weapon as far away from themselves as possible by saying the gun was used by a townie.

FOS: Cuban Smoker

vote: Dourgrim

[Mickey]

"3 killers is a lot, and leads me to look VERY suspisciously upon someone assuming there are 3 killers."

per CubanSmoker

Minigame 7 is one of 3 games (including this one) where Polotet served as Mod. In that game victims suffered at the hands of 3 killers - serial killer, vigilante, and mafia.

...3 killers doesn't seem that unusual to me. What does seem unusual is that someone would be accused because of their excellent observation.

Which is more of a leap... noting that there are three killers or jumping to the conclusion that anyone who notices must be the shooter? I think it is very possible (even likely) that our moderator is using a formula that works.

Unvote: Dourgrim
Vote: Cuban Smoker

[Mickey]

cuban smoker,

truly you have a dizzying intellect...

Darkblade's innability to specifically define the 3 killing groups doesn't shoot holes through the 3 killer theory, nor does it shed any light of suspicion on him.
In regard to who fired the gun, who used the crossbow, who weilded the club - these are unknown to all except the very criminals responsible - so in this case ignorance speaks to innocence.
The possibility that a doctor is in our midst keeps me from agreeing at this point with the non-lethal firearm theory. I think it is possible that it was a missed kill.
I don't think anyone is disputing the idea that mafia still consists of a Godfather and a hitman as d8p noted.
In regard to Dourgrim's view that 3 killers is alot -
again, 3 killers in one game is normal for our moderator - minigame 7.

With that in mind would speculating that the gunshot came from a possible 3rd killer (who missed his / her target) be an admission of guilt - I don't think so - is it grounds for lynching - there is no way.

In regard to the Occam's Razor

Darkblade: 3 killers?

i think it was speculative meant to encourage dialog. (note the question mark)

- should we hold you to your quote as well?

cuban smoker: Yay! Go Mafia! ... I mean... heh.

[Mickey]

Cuban Smoker

I want to believe you, and I almost do...
I'm still trying to figure out why you fought the 3 killer theory when you suspected that Darkblade was the 3rd killer.
You seem to have uncommon knowledge but I figure if you were in cahoots with Darkblade you wouldn't be trying so hard to take him down so agressively and so early in the game - even further I doubt you would be spearheading the effort. That supports your cop claim.
Can you shed more light on the results of your investigation other than "evil".

[Mickey]

OK ...

No more from me on the 3 killer theory. (I think we beat that horse to death).

I guess we will soon put the results of your investigation to the ultimate test.

unvote: Cuban Smoker

vote: Darkblade

[Mickey]

Wow, trying to assimiilate all of this....

How do you explain CS nailing the SK?
-was it luck?
-can a Godfather have investigative abilities?

hmmm, the claim is alot easier to swallow when you can find some inconsistencies in CS's story and thus expose him as mafia.

Day two looks like it is going to give us a showdown between CS and Jeep.

By the way CS - tell us the results of your investigation last night - we need information...

And what's up with the gunshot?

[Mickey]

OK Cuban -

results of your investigation please - you hold the power to help us make a wise decision - you've already come out as a cop - what possible reason could there be for you NOT to reveal the results of your investigation?

[Mickey]

Anyone who is not mafia is a clear target for the mafia - you are not revealing anything to them.

[Mickey]

Then you just failed Mafia 101

....because you painted a big target on my head in your previous post.

On night 1, I got Mickey (though my choice was really Mackay, my mistake) as not the GF.

[Mickey]

Jeep - Though you relented rather quickly from the findings in your quest for the Godfather - I have been reviewing my notes and here are my findings...

I think there are several roles with investigative abilities - mine is one of those.

On night one I investigated Cuban Smoker...

I followed him to a large house, he entered it, a short time later a person clothed in black, wearing a mask and carrying a gun left the house. Cuban Smoker remained in the house until morning.

The results of this investigation were vague - but they were all that I got.
My first thought was "CS is the Godfather" - but when he claimed the role of cop I thought maybe I followed him on his investigation. As I read through the previous notes today I discovered a flaw with that idea. If Cuban Smoker was investigating Darkblade as he claimed - then the person leaving the house would not have had a gun - but rather a crossbow and a sword.

When you came out earlier and stated that your investigation pointed to Cuban Smoker as the Godfather (though I am still perplexed as to how he was able to finger Darkblade) I felt that the preponderance of evidence made it possible for me to say with confidence that he is in fact ...

THE GODFATHER

Vote: Cuban Smoker

[Mickey]

I find it strange that you would ask me to reveal an innocent in light of your previous comments regarding their vulnerability, nonetheless in hopes of finding corroborative evidence that will lead to a Godfather lynching I think I am of more assistance to the town by sharing my results.

Dourgrim stayed home he was on his computer all night.

By the way Jeep ... though I believe at this point we are working toward the same objective (town victory). I am disappointed that you would accuse me of taking on the role of mafia teacher. After all you are the one who was trying to "school me" with the Mafia 101 business.
I may be a newbie to this board but I do have lots of experience playing this game.

Confirm Vote: Cuban Smoker

[Mickey]

Like I said, how you fingered Darkblade is beyond me.

All I can do is share the results of my investigation. I have been forthright from the outset.
I reiterate:

On night one I followed CS to a large house, he remained there through the evening - someone else left the house clothed in black, wearing a mask and carrying a gun.

These are the facts of my investigation.

When I combine my results with Jeep's investigation it becomes quite clear to me that you are in fact the Godfather.

Furthermore, if Jeep's sole purpose is to find the Godfather I find it hard to believe that the moderator would intentionally mislead him with random or incorrect results.

[Mickey]

OK Jeep -

I have been thinking about this all day and I

do

see how revealing innocence too early in the game puts town at a disadvantage - just like revealing roles like doctor or cop too early or without information that leads to a mafia lynching only makes those roles vulnerable without being useful.

I apologize for being defensive - I hate to be treated like a dumb newbie - but I must admit that the dynamics of games on the boards are very different from playing the game face to face. I am impressed that you have performed a full statistical analysis reviewing different scenarios and been able to reach conclusions based on your research that help to make the game more predictable despite the unpredictability of human reasoning and other determining variables like luck. I look forward to reading your article.

The title of my role is "fairly standard cop".

At this point if we lynch CS we would have 4 innocents

• Dourgrim
  Jeep
  Dourblade's night 2 investigation
  Mickey

3 unknowns

• one of which may be a possible doctor / townie
  one of which is mafia (gun)
  one of which is killing with the club

This may be premature but in light of the evidence...
Do you think it would be to our advantage for one of us to state whom he is investigating to avoid the possibility of checking the same person? Of course one of us will most likely be killed - so the results may never be known - hopefully the doctor (who should stay secret) will protect the other so that we have at least one successful investigation.

Anyway, Jeep if you have done this kind of thing before why don't you formulate a plan that should lead to town victory - it appears to me that we have the numbers at this point.

[Mickey]

Since the night is fast approaching I will be investigating d8p tonight -

I am uneasy about how quickly CS gave up - if there are any others with investigative powers - we should check out Jeep.

... imagine this Jeep is mafia he gives up the Godfather and as a result is viewed as an innocent for the rest of the game - no one even questions it
mafia wins / town loses

Briliant strategy - not likely - but possible.