Mountainous Mafia (77)

[mathcam]

Son of a.

Cam

[mathcam]

Still catching up...I'll be fully in within the day.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, I'll keep all my notes to myself, but here's a list of all the votes so far in this game. We can analyze them for probable mafia pairing if we want. I was going to guess Mr. Gnome_It_all and Dasquian was the most likely mafia pair (based on their Yanqush votes), but now I realize they're both dead (and townie).

VOTES (The votes in parenthesis with x's are unvotes)
-----

DAY 1
Das: PPs
Moj: Yan
Jer: Dis
Leo: Yan
Tig: Pri
GIA: Leo
Pri: Tig
PPs: GIA
GIA: Yan (xLeo)
Das: Yan (xPPs)
Moj: (xYan)
Pri: (xTig)
Tig: (xPri)
Das: PPs (xYan)
GIA: PPs (xYan)
Leo: PPs (xYan)
PPs: GIA (already was)
Jer: GIA (xDis)
Das: GIA (xPPs)
Moj: GIA
Das: (xGIA)
GIA: GIA (xPPs)
Coo: GIA (xDas)
Das: Leo
Pri: (GIA)

DAY 2
dis: Coo
dis: (xCoo)
Coo: Leo
Pri: Leo
Tig: PPs
Coo: (xLeo)
Pri: (xLeo)
PPs: Tig
Coo: PPs
Moj: PPs
dis: PPs
Leo: PPs

[mathcam]

Mathcam: I agree that vote analysis can be useful but your format needs some work. Maybe a chronilogical final vote count to cross reference with vote/unvote patterns? I might be able to do that tonight too IF I get home from the bar in a soberish state. Welcome back by the way, do try and keep yourself out of the dead-body-burny-thingy.

Chronological final vote count? I'm not sure what you mean. But yeah, I'm not contending that thhis list of votes is anything near complete for an analysis, just that the votes are there so people don't have to search through and find them. I think that data is most useful for determinging if two people are evil together, rathen than if one individual is evil or not.

I have discer and Leo down in my books as most likely innocent. I'm still deciding who's most guilty-looking.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm not sure exactly what you want...just what you have, but if a person unvoted and then re-voted, then there name should be farther down on the list? I'm happy to do it, though.

Cam

[mathcam]

If I could see his face, I would say "How can you not trust a face like that?" I could of course be wrong, but I'd bet money that Leo's innocent.

As for Mojo:

Day 1: Mojo randomly voted for Yanqush, unvoted, and then was 4th on the GIA bandwagon.
Day 2: Mojo's only vote was third on the Pretty Princess bandwagon.

All in all, pretty conformist, which is kind of scummy. I guess he's up there in terms of suspicion, but there must be some stronger evidence somewhere.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, I came in to the day most suspicious of JereIC, and now I still feel that 2 out of JereIC, Mojo, and Prizm are the scum. The question for me now is whether Mojo's pushing of the Leo lynch outweighs my previous suspicion on JereIC.

Let's see, other than a random vote, he was second on the GIA bandwagon, and that's it. Well, that's not really suspicious. Hmm again.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, I hate to come off as exceedingly obseqious, but I agree with everything you just said, discer. The lists and that bandwagon line are the two exact things that made me suspicious of JereIC in the first place.

Now I'm going to add on:

Stepping out of game real fast, don't instantly discount the possibility that we're both mafia and this is a gambit. After seeing the lists, we could have decided that it was likely that we were both about to get lynched, and conspired to lead bandwagons against each other, to make the survivor look more innocent. It'd be a desperate and brutal tactic, but it could work.

I see what you're saying, JereIC, but I'm just getting a totally scummy vibe from this quote. I

did

look at your vote history in my last post, JereIC, and I concede that it's not really suspicious at all.

Hmm again.

Cam

[mathcam]

Here's an interesting point:

JereIC was suspicious of Yanqush, Mojo, and PP.
Tigris was

not

suspicious of Yanqush, Mojo, and PP, exactly the same three people.

What does this mean? I have no idea.

I would that if JereIC was evil, he would have included his partner in his list of 3, don't you? PP was innocent, I happen to know Yanqush was innocent, leaving Mojo. Thus, I suspect that if JereIC is mafia, then so is Mojo.

Cam

[mathcam]

Okay, it's time to make a call. My gut's telling me to go with JereIC, and if nothing else, I think the revelation of whether he was town or mafia will help us make a decision tomorrow on Mojo. Plus, if you're agreeing with my way of thinking, then 2 of Mojo, Prizm, and JereIC are evil. Even if we picked randomly from there, we'd have pretty good odds.

Vote: JereIC

Cam

[mathcam]

Sigh...maybe it would be better to go after Mojo, first. If you're mafia, JereIC, that was a good empassioned plea you had just there.

Unvote: JereIC

Discer, you didn't mention Mojo in your last post...does that mean you're no longer suspicious of him?

Cam

[mathcam]

Okay, Mojo it is.

Caution

: This puts Mojo one away from a lynch.

Vote: Mojo

.

Cam

[mathcam]

Wooo!!!!! I mean *snore*...

Cam

[mathcam]

An interesting choice for the mafia. I think he was one of the most innocent to discer and myself (and maybe Tigris too), but certainly I tend to think discer (or possibly myself?) were the most agreed upon innocents. Why didn't one of them have to eat a bullet? Hmmm....

Off to think about which of you would want most to have Leo dead.

Cam

[mathcam]

I don't know...perhaps so that that argument would work? If you buy into it, you're falling right into their little nefarious scheme.

Cam

[mathcam]

Fair enough.

I'm basically thinking between Prizm and JereIC still. We've got two lynches to get it right, so I'm feeling pretty good about this.

Cam

[mathcam]

I tend to agree with JereIC at the moment. The combination of the first to say "Mathcam's not dead yet so he's probably evil" (thus implying he might have thought about it the previous night when deciding who to kill) and his lack of vote on Mojo both seem to be good indicators. And all this

on top

of the piles of suspicion racked up on him yetsterday.

Vote: Prizm

That's one out fo 3. Let's be careful here.

Cam

[mathcam]

No, you're right. I sloppily read your

With JereIC, Leo and Cam already voting for Mojo, that leaves Prizm, Tigris and myself.

But I think my point holds (though admittedly less so). I rarely give people much credit for putting on the lynching vote, unless possibly they had a decision between two bandwagons. By the time Prizm voted, it was almost inevitable that Mojo would be the day's target. Perhaps he thought he could buy himself some brownie points by finishing off Mojo. Note his last words:

[quote="Prizm"Bah...I've become somewhat bored and frustrated with this game, so I'm going to vote for Mojo and practically guarantee my lynch tomorrow if Mojo is innocent. vote: Mojo[/b] [/quote]

Last, note that JereIC was on Mojo's case from the beginning, starting yesterday with

Right now, my gut screams Mojo. I've got no new reasons, but in re-reading his posts, I just became more and more convinced he's mafia.

Of course this could be a subtle mafia ploy, but it's enough to make me want to give him the benefit of the doubt today.

Cam

[mathcam]

Dang, sorry about the missed quote tages.

[mathcam]

I feel like my suspicion of Tigris has been rising lately, but maybe this is just because of this recent attack. Anyways, in the language of discer, Tigris gets bumped up a little.

Cam

[mathcam]

Oh yeah,

KILL KILL KILL!!!! DIE DIE DIE!!!! Let the blood of the fallen encourage us to kill some more!!!

Cam

[mathcam]

The other line I found suspicious by JereIC was the following:

Stepping out of game real fast, don't instantly discount the possibility that we're both mafia and this is a gambit. After seeing the lists, we could have decided that it was likely that we were both about to get lynched, and conspired to lead bandwagons against each other, to make the survivor look more innocent. It'd be a desperate and brutal tactic, but it could work.

There's really not a lot of point in saying this if you're pro-town, so I kind of find this suspicious. On the other hand, for some reason I feel like it's the kind of thing I would say in a position like that, so I don't put too much weight on it.

Cam

[mathcam]

Prizm, perhaps a more proactive defense would be appropriate here? It looks like you're going to be lynched because everyone else has defended themselves. A defense doesn't simply entail claiming innocence...put forward another more viable theory, or at least explain some of the things we find suspicious.

Cam

[mathcam]

Mathcam: Yes, very interesting, especially when you'd expect the mafia, in a game where there are no cops, to kill off the most experienced players first, rather than the newbies like poor Leo.

Which brings me to my suspicions about you: why are you still alive? Obviously whoever was mafia thought you were a threat the first time, or they wouldn't have killed you night 1. So why didn't they kill you last night?

FoS: Mathcam

Of the several things that puts Prizm in the suspicious list for me, I have to say this one undoes a good chunk of it. JereIC makes a good (related) point above as well.

Unvote: Prizm

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm not sure what you think is a contradiction, discer. JereIC wrote that "if Prizm is the last mafia, why would he try to frame Mathcam, and not me?" I thought this was a good point that meshed well with my note that the post from Prizm that I quoted was somewhat un-suspicious. JereIC, it wasn't new in my notes...this is just the first time I mentioned it. His suspicious posts outweigh his non-suspicious ones, hence my voting. But with you too mentioning this post, that put a little more weight on it.

Cam

[mathcam]

Did I attack Prizm for that post? I don't remember doing it, but it's certainly possible. I'll check back through when I have more time.

Cam

[mathcam]

No, you are not wrong, discer. I think I auto-defend myself from that argument because I hear it so much, whether or not I find it extremely suspicious.

Let me summarize my feelings on this post: It is to me somewhat non-suspicious because he chose to attack me as opposed to someone who seemed more guilty at the start of the day. I think a mafia would have chosen a more potentially lynchable target. It is also somewhat suspicious because he started the day with that post, possibly implying that he had thought about this argument if he were mafia deciding who to kill.

The more I think about it, the more I still lean toward putting it in the suspicious column rather than the non-suspicious one. If the latter did in fact occur, then he wouldn't have chosen someone else to attack at the start of the day, he would have chosen to attack the person who he tried to set up.

and I think I've been sticking my neck out as well (even wondering aloud why Prizm would do some of the things that have been done if he's mafia).

This strikes me as yet another odd quote from JereIC. I apologize in advance if I'm horribly misreading you, JereIC, but it seems like you're trying just a little too hard to convince us that you're acting very non-mafiaesque. Plus, JereIC was my number one suspicion when I came in to this game (though the suspicioun had lowered itself since then).

So I'll

Vote; JereIC

and note that JereIC is ONE AWAY FROM LYNCH.

Cam

[mathcam]

Did I just word it badly?

Probably not. Sometimes you just get this bug in your head that makes you think someone's evil, and once you've done that, everything they say sounds evil. So, uhh...sorry about that, but I still think you're scum.

Cam

[mathcam]

How odd. How odd indeed. My gut now says to immediately vote Prizm, but of course this is what the mafia wanted my gut to tell me.

So do I go after Prizm, thinking that Prizm is the kind of guy who would make himself so clearly the mafia that I question my gut based on the "This is the too easy" type of feeling?

Or do I go after discer, thinking that Discer picked off Tigris because he knew if it was down to me, him, and Prizm, I'd go after Prizm.

I love this game.

Whatever you do, no one vote yet.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yup, I gotta say that Prizm's attack of me in his first post sure adds to my suspicion on him. Time for a massive read-through...

Cam

[mathcam]

GAAAAHHHHH! I don't know. There's this argument nagging at the beack of my head that says "Look, if you just lynch Prizm, then even if you're wrong, you won't feel that bad because discer played an awesome mafia that you never suspected until possibly the last day. If you lynch discer and you're wrong, you'll feel like a total idiot for ignoring the suspicions of yourself and all the now-dead townies who said that Prizm was the most suspicious." But this

shouldn't

be a valid argument, and I'd like to get over it. Stupid pride always messing things up...gumble, grumble...

At first glance to me, it seems like Prizm is by far the most suspicious. The one thing I can't get over is why, if Prizm were mafia, he would have killed Leo and Tigris. Can I really credit Prizm for making such brilliant night choices? (No offense, Prizm).

If discer's mafia, this is his dream scenario. He certainly wouldn't have killed Prizm, because then it's me, Tigris, and discer, and I may have been even less suspicious of Tigris then I am of discer. Would he have killed Tigris instead of me? I had voted for Prizm yesterday, so he knew I was very suspicious of Prizm...so I'm probably his best bet for someone to keep alive. Thus, the Tigris kill. And if Prizm's mafia, I have to think that he thought most of this out before choosing the kill.

Hmm.

Cam

[mathcam]

But discer, if mafia, might try and make that case, knowing that I was already somewhat suspicious of mathcam.

Ah, right. This is the piece I was missing above. This is why discer, if mafia, leaves me alive instead of Tigris. Because Prizm is more suspicious of me, so if Prizm starts the day off by voting me, discer automatically wins.

Cam

[mathcam]

Sorry, just gone for the weekend. I'm back in full swing now and ready to exact some justice.

I have to confess my suspicion of discer is rapidly growing. Prizm has been somewhat suspicious all game, but I feel like most of this can be attributed to being a relative newbie. discer, on the other hand, has been very poised all game, bringing no suspicion on himself whatsoever. However, the kill patterns for the last couple of days do seem to implicate discer, at least in my mind.

So Prizm seems like the easy choice, but I feel like an easy choice must be unlikely in this game.

I'm going to go read other games with Prizm and see if I get a similar vibe from him in those games.

Cam

[mathcam]

Can we bump Prizm or something? This is going to be a good endgame if he's not here, and a spectacular one if he

is

here.

Cam

[mathcam]

As far as the night kill patterns go, I think they implicate all of us for one reason or another.

See, I'm not sure this is true, at least if ignore the really hypothetical arguments. If we just look at in terms of who was most most suspicious of who at the end of yesterday (with mathcam, Tigris, discer, and Prizm alive), I would think that

Prizm would kill discer, most confirmed innocent (or maybe even me, since I voted for Prizm yesterday)
mathcam would kill discer, most confirmed innocent
discer would kill someone other than discer, and I suspect it would be Tigris for reasons I've mentioned in previous posts.

But perhaps most important is the fact that it's just hard for me to believe that Prizm would intentionally lead us to this endgame. Surely killing Leo can't have been the right play for him two nights ago. But to someone more though to be innocent, it doesn't matter nearly as much who gets killed.

Any chance you're going to up the participation, Prizm, or should we just start voting at will?

Cam

[mathcam]

Oh, you bastards. Prizm, that's not at all what I meant by participate. Sigh. I really wanted to win that, too.

Cam

[mathcam]

Given that I had the most suspicious record, I'd probably end up getting lynched, so I voted. Oh well.

I was trying to go out of my way to make it clear that discer was my leading candidate...that the night kills just didn't make sense for you to have made them. But as you say, oh well. A (slightly bitter ) congrats to discer.

Cam

[mathcam]

Why you little....



Cam