Mini 1341 - Game Over!

[Junpei]

Okay, I've read everything overnight, need to individual ISOs now. If anyone has anything in particular they want me to comment on let me know.

[Junpei]

Still doing ISOs but so far it looks like my vote is going on Alduskkel. So

vote Alduskkel

and I'll post my notes on him here so I can start pumping out content - this game has been lifeless since the day started.

First off: There were lots of conversations between dead people about dead people. What this tells me is that most of the activity is now dead, so we're going to all have to pick up the slack.

Alduskkel: Early lurking, strangely Doesn't FoS Shattered Viewpoint but FoS's pecanpie (who had the same level of criticism from Alduskkel at that point).

I will VOTE: Pine. I think you should answer the questions nhammen posed. If you're getting this lazy already, what's to stop you from getting lazy later?

I know Alduskkel has already responded to this point being made by Arugula, but I don't buy it. This straight up sounds like he's voting Pine in response to his laziness which Alduskkel also expressed. Essentially Alduskkel is voting Pine for an attribute Alduskkel admitted he also has.

This post have multiple issues: His response to Michel's case reads as fake. Hanging onto the scumpotential point (Which was very explicitly explained and should be clear as day to him) seems like scum folding to a formidable defense but finding something to cling to for suspicion. Also says that Pines' laziness is anti-town and thus deserves a vote; which means of course that he knowingly and deliberately was acting anti-town himself.

Shows suspicion of multiple people but does not vote.

After over a week, votes VE which is very strange - he hops onto the easy vote while suddenly agreeing with the case on IceNinja. Note he never commented on the Pine lynch.

Calls something which he did (disappearing) anti-town

Okay, the big Pine/ICE case: First point is hypocritical as Pine voting Alduskkal late into his lynch, and Pine even closed with calling ICE/VE town. Individual ICE section is full of stretching. Also his closing "I think everyone should weigh in on their scum reads, and in particular, what their stance is on lynching VE." reads as fake concern to me. Of COURSE everyone is going to give their stance on lynching VE. But then if that's necessary, then why are you at all worried about a quicklynch on VE?

Overall hasn't commented on much and I really (even after reading his ISO just now) am unsure of his reads.

RE: Michel kill: I don't have any initial reaction to it other than he could have tried to protect someone. Not sure why it would be unsound for him to do so logically, care to explain Cogito?

PecanPie (may I call you that?): What do YOU make of the kill? Why does it interest you?

[Junpei]

unvote

[Junpei]

Just realized that if the doublevoter is scum, your vote could have lost town the game. Going to hold off on voting for a while in light of that. Definitely need to decide if we think he's town or scum. What's your read on Shattered, Cogito?

[Junpei]

True - especially the scenario with 3 scum one of which being a doublvoter seems crazy (4 scum votes). Also 2 scum wherein 1 goon and 1 doublevoter against a flipped cop and bodyguard seems townsided.

vote Alduskell

Unless someone has some compelling viewpoint, I'm ready to vote Shattered as cleared town.

[Junpei]

Cogito: You seemed to when you replaced in, decided on two people being scum, and have not scumhunted since (granted I can't say you scumhunted before than either). Now that your suspects have died, you are just going to sheep me, without doing any work yourself, without rereading anything, and not comment on any of the other players whom you haven't said much of a word of?

What was the reason? And you should actually tell me - from where I'm standing it looks like you wanted to mislynch first before lynching Pine but got called on it.

Care to comment on ANYTHING?

[Junpei]

Cogito: Where's the analysis?

Pecanpie: Where's your vote?

[Junpei]

Whiskers: Before you started posting again (maybe even still) I had the most posts of the gameday. Get your facts straight before calling me a lurker. I've been waiting for input from other people and it took a while for people to come out.

Furthermore, if your vote is not being used I'm going to assume either you have no suspects or you don't want to put that person under more pressure. The only person the latter should apply to is Alduskkal because he has so many votes if I recall correctly.

Cogito you said that you had analysis, this means that there was something to say - now there isn't? Explain yourself.

Pecanpie: You want to policy lynch Alduskkal? Not vote him for his scumminess?

I'll go over what I missed again in case there's something else.

[Junpei]

I will comment more tomorrow. I'm feeling lazy today.

Since then you've given almost nothing. I thought this meant that your shoddy posting was only temporary and that you'd be giving more analysis today.

[Junpei]

I'll respond to Alluskkal probably later tonight (saying... 2 hours) or tomorrow, been busy.

Whiskers: Are you going to explain past a hunch?

[Junpei]

Alduskkel:
1) I read your explanation for the Pine vote. Then I read the Pine vote again. I'm going with my explanation, it fits much better.

2) Re: Laziness: So it's not suspicious for you to call yourself anti-town and continue to do that anti-town action because you are apparently always anti-town?

3) I might be able to buy your "I don't vote without strong reads" if you hadn't voted VE out of no where.

4) I maintain I have trouble believing that "scumpotential" was a legitimate enough point.

5) VE/ICE case:

Firstly, in post 30 Ice declares himself "the easiest player to read on the site" because he's supposedly a bad scum player. That's straight-up manipulation of meta for his own benefit.
In post 40 Ice casts suspicion on Michel without much substance. Essentially, he wants to prevent solid town reads to develop -- keeps more mislynch options on the table. The main reason it is scummy is because it's so random and out of place.
In 232 Ice casually gets onto the Arugula wagon without contributing anything himself. This after he had just asked Michel if he would hammer Arugula (in 218), to which Michel said yes. That, in retrospect, looks definitively like scum fishing for support for a town wagon. Later, Ice sets up Aurorus for the next lynch. This makes up such a large portion of Ice's posts that I won't bother to reference every one of them, but if you want to start go to 270. Given that we now know that AV was town (and was very strongly in favor of a Pine-Ice scumteam) this is incredibly scummy. We can WIFOM waffle about how scum just want us to think that Ice would have done that, but let's not. The first, most straightforward aspect of WIFOM is just generally the most likely. Couple that with the fact that towns rarely attack people based off of the night kill (again, due to the WIFOM defense) I can see VE NKing AV. And if VE is scum, let's look at his other option: let AV live. If that happens, I can guarantee to you that AV would be jumping up and down calling for VE's lynch. From VE's perspective, it was probably better to take out AV and risk the attacks.

1) How is this a point?

2) He hardly cast suspicion on Michel.

3) I don't understand your ICE/Arugula wagon point, it could be valid, I'm not sure.

4) You are saying ICE is scum because he campaigned for a lynch of a townie which a pure post hoc fallacy.

5) Telling us to not think about it and just accept it wasn't WIFOM.

6) You then go on to WIFOM to make another point.

Finally, your excuse for cautioning against a quicklynch is just post hoc reasoning and thus invalid for justifying a mindset at a given time.

Just dropping in to say I still am ready to hammer.

Any objections?

Well not quite I think. I want brundibar to be able to post and I want to hear what Whiskers is up to. Also want more content from Cogito Ergo Sum,

[Junpei]

I've just got a hunch.

Explain this some more?

The ald case was up when you voted brundibar, and has already been countered. Though the counter was poor and I have since countered it.

Also even though I want to make sure this lynch goes through, I want to just ride out most of the time till deadline in case we can get CES and brundibar replacement to say more and I would love an answer to my above inquiry Whiskers.

[Junpei]

Anyone want to say anything? Whiskers? CES? Nothing?

[Junpei]

4) You are saying ICE is scum because he campaigned for a lynch of a townie which a pure post hoc fallacy.

We knew he was town at the time Alduskkel posted that. There's nothing post hoc fallacy about that. Trying to get mislynches is a scum tell (and even if you disagree with this, the relevant question is whether Alduskkel believes it, which is incredibly likely).

Why is 570 so bad, Junpei? Are you bussing?

>Ice wanted X lynched
>>X fipped town

>Ald says Ice wanted X lynched because he was town

What type of bullshit logic is that?

If you're attempting to sweep everything under a rug with a "this post is bad" post, then I'll just laugh at you as Alduskkel flips scum (very likely). Continue to ignore giving reads by the way. Oh well you implied I was a scumread but that doesn't really count.

Whiskers: I googled "Define post hoc" and I got "

Occurring or done after the event: "a post hoc justification for the changes"

.". A perfect definition. Good job search engine.

[Junpei]

If you accept the two statements "ICEninja pushed a mislynch." and "Scum are more likely to push mislynch.", then the correct conclusion is "ICEninja is more likely to be scum." This really is all fairly basic and I don't see what your problem with it could be unless you're reading it as a syllogism or if you think using information we gain at later points is somehow inadmissible ("post hoc") even though obviously scumICE would have had that information at the time.

Sigh.. take it to MD but this whole line of theory is faulty on the assumption that town lynch town at a rate which is less than scum in relation to random.

Addulsk: Do you think that mafia are very much more likely to be on a town wagon than town?

[Junpei]

f you're attempting to sweep everything under a rug with a "this post is bad" post, then I'll just laugh at you as Alduskkel flips scum (very likely). Continue to ignore giving reads by the way. Oh well you implied I was a scumread but that doesn't really count.

Bringing this up again.

Also if Alduskkel's opinion matters so much, why didn't you ask for it? Why'd you just assume that it was the opinion which makes his thought process possible from town?

[Junpei]

Because it's conventional wisdom.

No not really. Any more reads? Any analysis of other things? You're barely more useful than Empking - and he's a day 1 policy lynch.

[Junpei]

Pecanpie: You want to policy lynch Alduskkal? Not vote him for his scumminess

No, you misunderstand me. On top of the other posts where I agree that he's scummy, the last post was also mentioning how anti-town his actions are.

Actually, to hell with it.

VOTE: Alduskkel

At the start of this Day he felt like the strongest scum suspect and, given the disappearing act, he hasn't made any effort to change that that.

I feel like Alduskkel has been hoping for a new case to open up, for the early voters to get bored or something and look elsewhere. At this rate, that's not going to happen. Maybe L-1 will compel Alduskkel to rip the case to shreds like he promised.

Cogito: Tell me, with good detail, what you think of this post by pecanpie.

[Junpei]

Looking through right now, if you want to hammer him, he does seem scummy, Im going to keep reading, but if you want to finish him before I'm done reading you have my permission.

What?

No hammering please, I want to see what he has to say.

[Junpei]

Did you see my rationale on Shattered being considered confirmed town?

Do you have reasons for your reads aside from Vote Count Analysis? If so, why is Whiskers scum?

[Junpei]

Nope, you're good. Have fun with the ISOs I guess.

[Junpei]

1. Cogito reads with reasons lets go

2. Salamence20 analysis and same as Cogito

3. Salamence20... Why did you hammer?

[Junpei]

Currently think it's either Salamence20-Whiskers or Junpei-Whiskers (Junpei-Salamence20 seems unlikely given 602). Will do a re-read when I get some time to see if I can't narrow it down to one pairing.

Would also like Salamence20 to explain his hammer. That post by Alduskkel doesn't seem like one that would normally lead to a hammer.

So far you've given no reasoning for your reads and repeated something I've already said.

How about some content?

I'd hate to open up the floor to speculation immediately, but Brundi/Salamence & Cogito our long lost scum team?

Is that a question or do you have a reason to believe this?

[Junpei]

Oh, you have given some reads.

Some things: In a 13p game, unless we have reason to believe otherwise (certain PR flips or something) we should assume there's 3 scum. So yes we should assume LYLO

Why do you trust CES more than Whiskers or Pecanpie?

[Junpei]

Well I mean I've seen lots of people ask how many scum are in a setup on average with X people. I wasn't calling you stupid, just answering what I read as an honest question.

You don't have any reason to not trust CES? Like that he's extremely concealing?

My only issue with the hammer is not that Adullsk might have gotten out of it (I don't think I would have changed my mind, he was too suspicious) but that we had 4 days left to discuss what you and possibly others might have wanted to say. Specifically you. Though when I think about it, the night kill was obvious so it isn't too big of a deal that you hammered away those days since you knew you'd be able to comment today. More of a small annoyance but no big deal in retrospect.

pecanpie: If we weren't assuming it is LYLO, who would you vote right now and why?

[Junpei]

Well I'm going to do in depth analysis on everyone and post it tomorrow. If this is indeed LYLO then I like to take my time, even though we have less than 2 weeks - we need to get this right.

[Junpei]

Alright, I'm doing ISOs still, been lazy/busy but will get them done before the days out!

Currently my top suspects are:

Salamence20
CES

I'll post analysis on every slot later tonight.

[Junpei]

Currently think it's either Salamence20-Whiskers or Junpei-Whiskers (Junpei-Salamence20 seems unlikely given 602). Will do a re-read when I get some time to see if I can't narrow it down to one pairing.

Would also like Salamence20 to explain his hammer. That post by Alduskkel doesn't seem like one that would normally lead to a hammer.

Who cleared pecanpie?

[Junpei]

That AurorusVoxkill (the purpose of which was presumably to frame ICEEyes) really does fit Whiskers too well.

P-edit: No one cleared him. I just think he's town.

1) Kill speculation like that is noob-level analysis. So not only do you act like Empking, but you're about as good as he is too.

2) Why is pecanpie a town read?

[Junpei]

I disagree, you have no idea what the rationale of a scum player might be based on their experience/viewpoint. And if you do it's because you're in the QT.

Everyone appears to have put thought behind their scumhunting... EXCEPT YOU.

[Junpei]

I believe we are playing a game that's based on the notion that we can determine what scum are likely to do with at least some degree of accuracy. Like scumhunting, nightkill analysis is hard, yes, but it is not impossible. If you disagree, then why don't you address my specific attempt at nightkill analysis here?

Yes, we should be able to determine what scum are likely to do. For instance, will they accumulate an odd or even number of posts day 1? Or, will they FoS their partner? Vote their partner day 1?

There's too many possibilities. I discredit your night kill analysis on a fundamental basis.

[Junpei]

But seriously: Junpei, I want to hear your reads. Plus I don't think you can call a guy who has been here for 7 years a noob.

I'm working on it right now..

Not sure what gave you the impression that Cogito spent any of those 7 years learning anything.

[Junpei]

Been really busy, but since I see pecanpie has posted his case on the brundibar slot, I'll post my notes on it.

Brundibar:
seems to do not much early on, just making a bunch of early weak votes. This vote looks like hopping on the growing bandwagon after the Pine wagon fell off. Then backtracks off of some small thing. And out of no where, hammers on Arugula.

Acts hesitant to lynch scum-Pine, but then does when pressured to. Perhaps didn't want to take too much heat for defending Pine.

His Alduskkal vote is based off of reasoning of one thing Pine said before he was lynched. Then he replaces out.

Salamence20: I guess he hasn't done as much as I thought he had. Some things he said doesn't make a lot of sense. He trusts Whiskers/PecanPie less than CES. But then what he means is that Whiskers/Pecanpie he would vote for today but not CES. But then, Whiskers is a town read according to him, so why is this so?

Overall: Scum read.


CES: You don't play concise, you play conservative to hide the fact you don't know what to do.

[Junpei]

A question by your number one scum read. I thought you only reveal things when you think you need to?

[Junpei]

Junpei's not a leader of the town. He's put quite a bit of effort into this game but it's all shallow and boring and easily faked. There's zero reason to give him credit for that.

Here's my version:

Cogito Ergo Sum's not town. He's put no effort into this game and his content is all shallow and boring and easily faked. There's zero reason to believe he is town.

Keep making sweeping statements to discredit townsmen, it makes you obvious.

[Junpei]

Final answer for what?

Also I'm going to be

V/LA July 25-30

so we should wrap this day up a day before deadline if we can.

[Junpei]

Oh - well if the Whiskers replacement does nothing suspicious then my first choice is you. Though I would vote Cogito if you weren't an option.

23rd gives us like 6-7 days...

I'd lynch Salamence and Cogito
pecanpie would too
Salamence would lynch pecan and whiskers and Cogito (am i right about this? I really don't know because you haven't stated any strong scum reads)
Cogito would lynch me and Whiskers

So... at this point the only lynch that COULD happen without a replacement is Cogito, unless scum can blitz of course. No one seems to be changing their minds on anything really.

[Junpei]

1) I'm not deciding a lynch by that method, I'm just showing our reality. And whose mind is actively changing since the day started? The only change you might note is that Salamence is willing to sheep pecanpie and I to lynch you.

2) That scenario is not showing all the information. For instance, the mafia's mindset needs to be set, it can't be derived from one action.

pedit: Salamence: But I was wrong about Alduskkal, so is it always good to trust me?

[Junpei]

You're already compromising? Before the replacement comes?

[Junpei]

veryone on the wagon for Ald: why did you vote for him?

I posted a case. It's one of the first things in my ISO if I recall.

Shattered Viewpoint was obviously town yesterday by vitrue of being a Double Voter. He was the obvious kill.

I found something interesting in SV ISO. I will post later tonight, but i would love to hear from Junpei and CES before then.

Anything else you are wondering about?

Why do you think both mafia were lynching Alduskkal?

I'm obviously not against a Cogito lynch.

pedit: Cogito: Effort IS indicative of alignment though unless you're a Village Idiot like Chronopie. Time management is important.

[Junpei]

Do you intend to argue that your effort level here is a town tell or that my effort level here is a scum tell? If not, I don't really care about your generalities.

The latter. And my argument is based off of the assumption that very low effort levels like yours are indicative of scum who can't fake scumhunting well.

[Junpei]

Cogito: Every game is different. You're probably struggling to fake your scumhunting a lot this game. Why would you even replace in if you didn't intend to put effort into the game?

[Junpei]

Very interesting. I don't think that I'm willing to call you town though because of the assumption that Pine did not vote a scum read on day 1. I mean, if I had a town read on you I would - but that doesn't seem like JUSTIFICATION for a town read on anyone.

I'm definitely okay with voting Cogito today but I want Whiskers to comment more so I can interact with him. Not to be egotistical, but I think that I'm the play tonight assuming we lynch scum and I want to be able to give all my reasoning on my reads before the night in case it's needed for 3way.

Whiskers: Have you completely caught up yet?

[Junpei]

Why would I suddenly have trouble faking it?

Because this is a different game than other games. Are you full of effort in every scum game? No? Why? Because - effort is specific to the environment which it is being applied to.

Salamence: You can unvote if you want, but I'm pretty sure you've tagged scum. Though you're probably scum anyway so there definitely will be no blitz today.

Cogito: Why 2 days? Why all of the sudden are you willing to give effort? You or Salamence have been the main targets all day long (Especially you). Seems like the vote has suddenly gotten you scared.

[Junpei]

I think I can fake everything I've ever wrote as town.

My last scum game was Red Dead Redemption Mafia which was a game with 3 scum killing groups and a survivor. It was awful and doesn't not constitute a game, but it is lost to the crash anyway. I spammed a lot in that game because everyone was spamming and I just fueled the fire with Kuribo.

Game before that was Magician Mafia which was my first real scum game since I got better at mafia and I lurked and didn't commit to things a lot.

Game before that was my first forum mafia game which was Setael Speed Mafia which I only won because SpyreX followed some old adages which were outdated when voting lategame.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=19062
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=18169

pedit:
1) My theory is that effort level changes in different environments. So duh there's going to be varying effort levels across games.
2) Alright, but remember Salamences' last day is the 22nd and mine is the 24th. We don't have much time.

[Junpei]

Salamence: There is a post in my ISO where I post notes on your slot as to why it is suspicious. Though I admit that your best play comes after that - I'm not sure if what you're doing is a bus or not but I'm definitely in to lynching Cogito first.

Whiskers: When I say "I'm going V/lA 25-29" I mean that I won't be able to post during those days. Thus, the 24th will be my last day before night (if there is one). Same for Salamance I'd assume on the 22nd.

Are you caught up or not?

pedit: Well Salamence's logic is a little more consequential than hats Whiskers, but I agree it has a flaw in it by assuming that Pine would or would not vote for a mafia partner. Unless you can show that there are much greater odds of some mafia person X voting 4 town than voting 3 town and 1 mafia in a gameday.

[Junpei]

Could only voting for town be considered a strategy? Is it possible to predict the actions of someone who uses zero strategy?

The answer to number 2 (and 1) is yes. We have to understand the subconscious inclinations of a persons' decision making based on what they know. Can we determine from just a archetype mafia mindset that Pine would be inclined to vote any way?

I don't think so.

[Junpei]

sigh.

no

I'm guessing this is where you tell me that since I'm town and you're town then Pine voted for all town, but at the end of the day, I don't know you're town, and if you're claiming to be town, then you shouldn't know if I'm town for sure.

If you have a town read on me, fine. But the justification shouldn't be that I'm town, especially after claiming VT.

[Junpei]

Yes, though your push on Cogito is good... I don't see any signs of bussing yet but it could use a full review.

You're still a scum read.

¿Why do you ask

[Junpei]

Yeah, I guess that's right.

[Junpei]

Uh, your scumbuddy. Cogito, that is. Though that's not counting your alduskkal hammer and subsequent night kill if you are indeed mafia.

[Junpei]

Salamence: I accept that as a possibility, but it doesn't convince me at all.

Whiskers: The post that I declare V/la in. Salamence declares in the next post.

What is your reasoned read on Cogito currently?

[Junpei]

Salamence: I accept that as a possibility, but it doesn't convince me at all.

Whiskers: The post that I declare V/la in. Salamence declares in the next post.

What is your reasoned read on Cogito currently?

Junpei, what should I think about your posts? Cautious town or scum protecting his buddy?

Huh? How about accurate and handsome town?

These questions... are they connected? The last line led no where but maybe this time you have a point?

Also are you insinuating that I am mafia with Cogito?

[Junpei]

Salamence: I don't like going fast. I like taking things slow. I am in the camp that says that if you give me all the information, I will sort it out and make everything right. bishes love that trait mang

but srs - Why vote now instead of in 4 days? I don't see why I should vote early. I doubt I'll change my mind on this but there are other things to worry about.

[Junpei]

It has come to my attention that whichever player's posts you are reading at any given time, that player will seem the scummiest.

That's wrong but unless you think it's super relevant I'll tel you why post game.

[Junpei]

Hey, I was in that game Whiskers. Thanks by the way - you making me put away my case that game helped me improve my game a lot.

Anyway, let me know when you do your ISOs (specifically on Cogito) and hopefully it's soon?

[Junpei]

vote Cogito Ergo Sum

[Junpei]

By the way Cogito, you don't get any props for being the only one to think I am mafia because you couldn't convince anyone.

Just saying that now for the inevitable post game bragging.

[Junpei]

So.

Salamence you weren't awful. I honestly think overall yo uwere fine (maybe because I didn't pay much attention to mine or my partners' case on you). You just picked mafia wrong.

I don't have any issues with the setup, even though I don't like doublevoting roles.

[Junpei]

I'll respond to the first thing tomorrow or something when I have more time, but as for the game. You were the last mafia and we had one ML left (5p). Everyone thought you were town or didn't suspect you. Then I replaced in and made a huge case on you (a wall of walls). You argued with me for pages of walls and eventually I let out and decided my suspicion on you wasn't strong after all.

Then, after gaining control of the whole town, you hammered on yourself on accident because you thought you were already voting yourself at L-1.