Mini 1354: Vedere le Viste! Game Over!

[McStab]

I don't like Konowa's behaviour, but I'm not prepared to put him at L-1 so soon.

1. I like both scum and town, being informed makes seeing what happens more hilarious, but trying to solve the mystery is a good exercise in logic.
2. I've played two Newbie games five years ago, and am currently in four other ongoing games.
3. I'm EST, and I really can't say with certainty. I make large posts as opposed to frequent smaller posts - it's just a habit.

[McStab]

Sorry to have to V/LA so soon but unexpected events are forcing me to V/LA till Monday.

[McStab]

Checking in here, catchup post coming late tonight or early tomorrow

[McStab]

Current reads:

Arugula - Scummy. His posts seem to be largely following bandwagons and he seems to feel a need to justify every one of his actions, even the RVS. Call it a gut-read, but I get a scum vibe from him.
Axxle - Null. Nothing has really stood out in his posts, but he has contributed to scumhunting.
Bud - Town. He's gone after and remained fixated on scummy behaviour, without jumping onto whatever bandwagon comes along.
Furcolow - what the hell. Null leaning town only because I doubt any scum would post something as crazy for a first post
Konowa - Null leaning town. His posts have been small, his votes largely unjustified, and his own reactions haven't helped him appear townish, but I get a townvibe from his aggressive demeanor.
RXK - Town. His posts have been very rational and critical, and also nitpicky. The nitpicking, in particular, qualifies as a very town trait to me.
Scumhunter - Null. Not that much content to go off, but the content he's posted hasn't stunk of scum. He does appear to be being incredibly cautious, which is a potential scum-trait, but from some of his meta I've read he appears to be cautious in general.
SodaSpirit - Scummy. Not much content, cautious, and not very critical. At the very least anti-town play.
Tangion -Scum. Look at his posts through the eyes of newb scum. It fits perfectly.
TheWorst - Town. Content-filled posts, clear views, sound reasoning, consistent.
Thomith - Null leaning scum. Could feasibly be scum, but I feel as though the best way to test it is through lynching Tangion. If Tangion flips scum, hang Thomith. If for some reason we lynch Soda instead of Tangion, and Soda flips town, we lynch Thomith. His stances are so simplistic and unfounded on logic, but he seems to hold them strongly, meaning that I think a lynch on either Tangion or Soda (both of whom I consider more scummy) could give us Thomith's alignment.
Yabbaguy - Null leaning scum. Not much to go off of, but his attacks on Axxle are ridiculously thin. Overconfidence in a single sentence of a single post? And his blindness to Tangion, yet a

Vote:Tangion

That's L-1. No one hammer yet anyway, give Tangion a chance to defend himself.

I would like to see a claim from Tangion, personally. I think his response will give us a good idea of how earnest he is.

[McStab]

With RXK dying, I get a real sense that there is scum in the group of Thomith, Arugula or yabbaguy. Like I said yesterday, if Tangion flips scum, I think Thomith is still a super valid target. Read his ISO and tell me that newbscum wouldn't act like that with Tangion. A weak attempt at distancing but still refusing to physically vote and bus his partner. I think it's fair to say Soda comes across as more town, but still nowhere near conf. town at this point.

Seriously, reading Thomith's ISO and Tangion's first post + post #47 and tell me that that's not a huge scum association right there.

Arugula and yabbaguy are mainly up there because I already had scumreads on them and also because RXK seemed to be one of the few other players who doubted them. See RXK's second last and last posts of Day One.

Vote: Thomith

Thomith, Arugula, and yabbaguy - who do you think are scum?

[McStab]

Yeah I'm feeling a yabba wagon too. Keep your eyes on Arugula though, note that yabba's post seems to fake distance himself from Arugula without actually launching a real criticism on Arugula.

Vote: yabbaguy

Nice catch Bud.

@Bud - What do you think of Thomith and Arugula?

[McStab]

The arguments start up again. Tangion was clearly not alone. Soon, the yelling is utter chaos.

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

yabbaguy

- 4 - Bub Bidderskins, Konowa, McStab, Arugula - (L-2)

Players not voting: Axxle, Furcolow, Luckyjt, Scumhunter, TheWorst, Thomith, yabbaguy

Deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2012-07-30 00:00:00)

And now, on with your previously scheduled post.

Giving someone a chance to claim before lynching them and trying to switch a wagon are totally different things. Let me run you through my logic so that I can be clear and you have no excuse for misunderstanding or misconstruing:


Thomith's interactions with Tangion and Soda, both of whom appeared scummy, led me to believe that although Thomith was scummy, we could determine his alignment without having to lynch him.

The way we would determine his alignment without having to lynch him was lynching Tangion or Soda, both of whom I believed were scummy.

Tangion was the scummier of the two (note that I declare Tangion "Scum", but Arugula and Soda as "Scummy").

Because of this, I then put Tangion at L-1. If this is what you call changing the wagon, then I'm truly flabbergasted.

If Tangion flipped scum, I was convinced (and still am) that Thomith is likely scum. If, instead of Tangion, Soda ended up being hanged that day (and flipped town), I would've concluded Thomith was scum.

I'm starting to re-evaluate that decision based on this pseudo-scumhunting on your part.

Yabbaguy is still the best choice to wagon up on right now, but consider the Soda/Lucky slot back on my radar.

@Lucky - Why are Furcolow, Arugula and Axxle suspicious for their votes? How will lynching me be helpful to find Thomith's alignment (if I flip town, what does that mean for Thomith? If I flip scum, what does that mean for Thomith).

[McStab]

I want to stay on the yabba wagon so bad for every single null read and a hesitancy to brand people scum reads (but not to brand people town - this is a scum trait) but the Lucky wagon is SOOOO appealing for him backing off of his post following a quick response from me.

I think both scum are out in the open, and I'm down to lynch both, but the Lucky wagon looks like it has more potential.

Vote: Luckyjt

[McStab]

@TheWorst - Both of them are acting super scummy is what I meant by "appealing". Easier is putting a word in my mouth, but I can get how you would have that vibe.

@Konowa - I actually was unaware I was putting him at L-1, but good call unvoting - another Furcolow hammer right now would be disastrous.

@Lucky - I'd appreciate a claim and scumreads as well.

[McStab]

The case on Lucky is that he came into the game with a bunch of reads that seemed very, very off. Then he backed off the next post after I called him out on it.

I personally want to see Lucky claim or offer some more scumreads, but yes, I'm more likely to lynch yabba overall for the day. I'm still keeping this pressure on Lucky until he comes up with a reason for me to take it off though.

[McStab]

@Lucky - Backed down was a bit of a harsh term, admittedly, when I look at it again. But you said you found me scummy (without mentioning Thomith as being scummy) in your first analysis. Then, immediately after I responded, you said you found Thomith scummy. Simultaneously, you said that Thomith and I are opposite alignments. This means that if you view me scummy, Thomith must be town - and you considered me most suspicious based on your analysis. If you viewed Thomith as town, this doesn't explain how you decided to push for his lynch as opposed to mine, because even though you stand by the argument that it would determine our alignments, you are satisfied with lynching someone you think is town just to determine (maybe) if I'm scum?

The fact you go from McStab is scummiest and Thomith is the opposite of McStab, and then switch to Thomith or McStab are good lynches and still the opposite, feels really bad to me, as it means you would lynch someone you think is town just to confirm my alignment.

I also want to hear from Lucky what he thinks of yabbaguy.

[McStab]

Here's my problem with Lucky's claim. While town role cop does exist in Mini Normals, it's certainly more commonly a scum role. Another problem is it's impossible to substantiate the alignment; we can substantiate that he's a role cop, but not that he's town.

There is a way to semi-substantiate it; if the mafia flips some PRs like Roleblocker, Strongman, Ninja etc. then it would make sense to include it. Problem is, the only scum we know who flipped is a vanilla goon. Role cop's are useless to determine vanilla goons. Given the amount of people and the fact that the only mafioso who flipped is a non-PR, I would imagine that we're going up against two more scum, with one PR amongst them (likely a Rolecop or Roleblocker).

I buy Lucky's claim that he's a role cop, simply because it would be suicidal to attempt it without actually being a role cop; but I don't buy that he's pro-town. I'd bet the last scum is amongst Yabba, Thomith or Arugula (moreso the first two, though).

[McStab]

As scummy as Lucky's claim sounds, I'm more inclined now to lynch the Thomith/Venmar slot. Konowa is right, that post 102 alone should be enough to warrant some serious pressure, and I think that Lucky can wait. If he is a scum PR, then he's probably being lynched tomorrow or the day after if he's still alive; if he's town, the scum will probably kill him.

Lucky, if you're town, I'd very much like it if you could investigate yabba tonight.

Vote: Thomith

[McStab]

I'm reading the last few posts, but I just realized I accidentally voted Thomith.

Unvote, Vote: Venmar

Excluding this game, but just as a policy, I don't like it either; that being said, for the behaviour of the person before to just be ignored is impossible as well. You have my sympathies, but it probably won't change my reads.

[McStab]

Konowa and Bud are obv. town. Arugula's last posts have been town as well.

The last scum are between Venmar, yabba and Lucky I think.

If Venmar flips town, AND Arugula or yabba flip scum, I'd bet that both of them are scum - but I highly doubt this eventuality.

Either way, we can test it out by lynching Venmar.

@Bud; I know yabba is acting super scummy, but you have to concede, particularly given Konowa's arguments and the interactions between Thomith and Tangion that there's a high chance of finding scum in a Venmar lynch. Even Lucky's claim leaves him as a pretty valid scum target, but I'd rather wait and see how that pans out and instead lynch Venmar today.

[McStab]

Just checking in, I really have nothing more to say right now except that Venmar needs to die. I'm pretty sure the scum are between Venmar, yabba and Lucky, but I see FAR more scumminess in the Venmar slot.

[McStab]

@TheWorst: I think Konowa is super town. Ever since I've been posting substantively I've believed Venmar would be scum if Tangion flipped scum, so it's hard for me to really pinpoint a time where I said I think Venmar is scum. Konowa's recent arguments in favour of lynching Venmar though are probably the most convincing thing that's put him above yabba or Lucky.

[McStab]

Nice catch Bub.

I say we kill yabba tonight, the only unfortunate thing is that if there's a third scum (I'd imagine there is), and that third scum is a PR next to two goons, we still haven't caught the PR (since Tangion flipped goon, and yabba did the kill, I'm assuming the PR targeted someone else last night while yabba killed).

Which brings me to the next point, which is that it's very common for there to be a Mafia RB or RC, and with at least a hider in the town, a RoleCop isn't that unexpected. If we can assume the last mafioso after yabba is a PR, I say Lucky goes tomorrow instead of Venmar. Hell, Lucky may as well go tonight if it wasn't for the fact that I think getting rid of the scum's ability to nighttalk with 100% certainty is more important than giving their PR one more night alive with 95% certainty. If we have any Vigs out there, NKing Venmar would do a great deal of good, thereby eliminating Venmar as a candidate and letting us lynch Lucky tomorrow; likewise, any trackers or cops should target Lucky overnight.

I think we've got a perfect game coming up; yabba-Lucky-Tangion scumteam.

Unvote, vote: yabbaguy

[McStab]

Bub being alive is strange, but I find it hard to believe he's scum. More likely, the scum is concerned about a doc. I don't think lynching someone almost entirely on the basis of them claiming role cop is a smart strategy.

Philammon, could a scum Roleblocker or Rolecop both kill and investigate in a given night, or only perform one of the actions? I know in the Newbie Games they can do both, but I was under the impression they could only do the factional kill OR use their power in most other games

If this is true, Lucky's claim is verifiable. We ask him to give us his result every night; if he slips up, we lynch him, because presumably he was busy performing the kill.

I would rather Lucky give us his result on Scumhunter before Scumhunter claims. I think assuming everything checks out there, we lynch Venmar today, asking Lucky to continue to provide us with information. If Venmar flips town, we re-evaluate our process in the game while hopefully Lucky or Bub's night results give us some info. If Lucky gets a role wrong, we lynch him, as he's presumably killing instead of investigating.

[McStab]

Ok, we need to get organized.

Scumhunter being named vanilla clears him. If he was mafia, he'd almost certainly be a PR, and if Lucky is mafia, Scumhunter can't be.

Bub is as close to clear as possible. He would've had to buss yabba in the most vicious fashion ever while Lucky was a legitimate target for the lynch. The only reason I have any doubt at all is that he survived the night - but I'm guessing this could be scum fearing a doc.

[McStab]

Scumhunter virtually has to be town, aside from any scumreads.

I keep flipping my views on Lucky, I look at Soda and see some definite patterns between yabba, Tangion and Soda. Lucky's role is confirmable assuming a scum rolecop couldn't both kill and investigate in the same night.

Let's say Lucky investigates Venmar tonight, Bub watches Lucky, and Venmar targets Lucky. If Venmar dies, Lucky is confirmed town or scum by Venmar's role. If Lucky dies, Bub will catch the scum. If Bub dies, that sucks, but Lucky can confirm Venmar as pro-town, even if it doesn't confirm Lucky.

Assume we lynch one of Arugula, Axxle, TheWorst, Elmo or myself today, and then Bub is presumably killed at night (since Venmar and Lucky are essentially unkillable or at least it's more of a benefit to town if they die than it is benefit to scum), we enter Day Four with Venmar and Scumhunter confirmed town, and Venmar essentially being unkillable conf. town until LyLo. Lucky then becomes a valid target for lynching again, but we'll be able to figure out pretty quickly if he's scum I'd imagine. If scum try to kill Venmar at any point, we get another conf. town or conf. scum.

I think this plan is the best. It gives us a conf. town for the rest of the game either through Venmar or his targets. With seven players left and two of them (Scumhunter and Venmar) as confirmed town, our odds of catching scum go way up. Even if they kill Scumhunter the next night, that leaves Lucky (who quite possibly is a town rolecop) and Venmar alive yet another night, a big risk for any scum.

In case anyone found this post too long, I essentially propose that we lynch one of the following today:

TheWorst
Arugula
Elmo
Axxle
Myself (Don't actually, but I need to be included in the not conf. town category).

If night comes and we haven't lynched scum, then Venmar targets Lucky, Bub targets Lucky, and Lucky targets Venmar. This plan outs a Venmar scum or confirms him as town, protects Lucky and unfortunately sacrifices Bub. The next day, we have seven players, if Venmar is conf. town along with Scumhunter we then have a pool of the following to lynch from:

Lucky + The survivors from today's lynchpool.

Venmar being conf. town then means that if scum try to kill him and he announces his targets out loud we know for sure the alignment of the target.


I know that most of your instincts are inclined to lynch Lucky or Venmar, given their previous scumminess and strange role claims. That being said, Venmar's claim is confirmable, and it's potential to create a permanent conf. town player too great to be overlooked.

I will post who out of TheWorst, Arugula, Axxle and Elmo ought to be lynched today in my opinion in a bit.

[McStab]

Exactly, there's no way to protect him. You'll be our strongest role though if we can confirm you, and Lucky's role can. Bub can protect Lucky until you're confirmed. If you're scum, you're dying right after Bub does too, so it's win win.

[McStab]

You can really think that the scum is one of them, but we can confirm Venmar as either scum or town based on the strategy I just proposed. This is GREAT for us because unlike Scumhunter's conf. town, which dies with him, Venmar's role should produce a confirmed town or the last scum upon his nightkill (assuming we can confirm he is town).

There is nothing to lose by sparing Venmar until tonight and doing what I proposed. If Venmar is scum, he dies tomorrow. If Venmar is town, we produce a confirmed town slot and then another mod-confirmed alignment after his death.

Unfortunately, to do this, we also have to spare Lucky (and Bub, but Bub isn't being lynched today regardless). If Venmar comes back town, by all means let's go ahead and lynch Lucky, but for today, logically, the following players shouldn't die, regardless of your "gut":

Lucky
Venmar
Bub

[McStab]

@Elmo: I agree you can, but as I said earlier if it is one of them we'll find out pretty fast. I'm not suggesting leaving Lucky alive much longer, but right now he can produce us some confirmed roles, and Venmar's in particular is important. Any slot that can produce a confirmed Oracle or confirmed scum is invaluable. It can't be stopped if we do it this way. After tonight, I'm entirely open to the idea of a Lucky lynch, and if Venmar's lying to us he'll be lynched instead.

[McStab]

Yeah, looking over yabba's iso, Axxle scum could make sense.

Vote: Axxle

Just to be clear, Lucky, Venmar and Bub, do you all understand who you're targeting tonight?

[McStab]

It's not a slam dunk in and of itself, but if you were scum it fits:

"Axxle - Don't know. The case I made earlier isn't sounding right in my own head. I'm still getting this stupid vibe in my head that's saying "there's something wrong with this guy, it just feels wrong", but I can't carry on. Maybe Axxle just needs to post better, like posting longer or being more transparent in his thoughts somehow. That would help."

In yabba's post 188 there, it's somewhat coaching, but if you end up flipping scum he comes across as innocent.

"Bub, Axxle, and Arugula were on the Thomith wagon, then all switched over to the Tangion wagon (at varying times, of course). I'd say there's one scum in there, definitely not all three though."

Post 131. He could be trying to bus one of his buddies and gain some towncred while also setting up mislynches for two town players. He condemns Arugula as outright scummy later, and Bub as towny, but leaves you as a null read, something I think a scum partner is more likely to say.


As I said, it's not outright condemnatory in and of itself, but I think his ISO helps clear Arugula a little more, and neither he nor Tangion really argue too much about Elmo or TheWorst.

[McStab]

Sorry for the lynch, Axxle. I wouldn't have put you on the top of my scumreads either, but it's necessary for logic's sake. You'll win with the town, and this plan will hopefully help us win in the long run.

[McStab]

Ok, so here's our situation:

Elmo (????)
Scumhunter (Conf. Town)
Arugula (????)
TheWorst (?????)
Bub (?????)
Lucky (Conf. Town)
McStab (I'm town and I know it, but in terms of what is confirmed in an objective sense, I'm ????)

Lucky's a role cop for sure, and still is able to provide us confirmed town roles. I suggest we keep Bub watching Lucky, which should buy Lucky at least tonight to produce more confirmed town players. If we lynch one of: TheWorst, Arugula, Elmo or myself today, then they presumably kill Bub tonight (or they try to WIFOM us - either way, Lucky lives ). Lucky investigates one of TheWorst, Arugula, Elmo or myself, depending on who isn't lynched today. This produces another conf. town. We lynch out of the two of TheWorst, Arugula, myself or Elmo (one of the two who weren't lynched/investigated by Lucky). Lucky presumably dies that night, and if we still haven't caught scum out of our group of four, we lynch the last member of the group.

So, to clarify, this is the road map I propose:

Lynch one of the FOUR (Arugula, TheWorst, Elmo or myself)
Bub watches Lucky; Lucky investigates any of the surviving THREE
Bub presumably dies, but if not, it could be WIFOM - we don't deviate from the plan.
The next day, we lynch one of the TWO that isn't lynched or Lucky confirmed.
Lucky presumably dies overnight.
We're left with ONE of the original four, Scumhunter (who's conf. town), and the other Conf. Town player in LyLo.

If Bub is scum, then Lucky can continue confirming townies until it should be Lucky and a Conf. Town player versus Bud in LyLo.

This is a surefire way to catch scum. Bub, continue watching Lucky every night. Lucky can continue to investigate players every night. Don't investigate Bub though; if Bub's scum, he's stuck with you and another conf. town player in LyLo.

Post coming soon on which of the FOUR to lynch (TheWorst, Arugula, myself or Elmo).

[McStab]

Immediately Lucky and Bud reports. Stat.

My thoughts? Not killing Bud might be WIFOM, might not be. We can't tell for now.
Hope Lucky didn't choose Venmar.

Did you read the plan or understand it properly yesterday?

Lucky presumably checked Venmar, and Bud presumably checked Lucky.

We need to stop talking about lynching Bud, it's a bad plan today and any day until LyLo. We've got a obvious logical way to win this setup, and lynching Bub breaks that.

[McStab]

This sounds promising

[McStab]

To answer your question, Scumhunter, "no."

I know TheWorst is the obv. hammer today but I want to know why from Lucky first.

[McStab]

You think it's scummy that we've logically narrowed it down to a maximum of five possible scum, one of whom would've had to hardbus both partners Day One and Day Two while other lynches were viable, another one of those is myself, who I know is town, leaving it between you, Arugula and Elmo. Then that the mod-confirmed Role Cop says you're not Vanilla, when we're assuming the existence of a scum PR, and said you were the lynch today.

Stop trying to deflect this on Bub, once Lucky comes out and formally says what he discovered, we're going to lynch you and win.

[McStab]

Lucky, what did you get back for investigation results?

[McStab]

Ok, well is everyone good with the plan I laid out then? I say we lynch Elmo today, Lucky investigates one of Arugula, me or TheWorst, Bub watches Lucky, and we continue along until all three of Arugula, myself and TheWorst are confirmed, either through death or Lucky. If we've confirmed everyone, then Lucky can check Bub, but if Bub's scum, then he's eventually screwed over anyway, because Lucky won't die and it'll be Lucky + a conf. town in LyLo with Bub.

Vote:Elmo

[McStab]

Bud has to watch Lucky, because Lucky surviving is paramount to producing another confirmed town. If Scumhunter dies tonight, big deal, we replace him and we've narrowed down the pool of suspects. If Lucky dies tonight, we can't produce another confirmed town. Bub protects Lucky, Lucky investigates one of me, Arugula or TheWorst, we lynch Elmo, and Bub will probably die tonight. Even if Bub doesn't die tonight forget WIFOM, we keep producing confirmed towns through Lucky, and Bub can eventually be investigated.

So just to clarify, the logical best solution is lynch Elmo, investigate one of me, Arugula or TheWorst through Lucky, Bub protect-watches Lucky and we then lynch one of the two of (me, Arugula, TheWorst) who isn't confirmed by Lucky. We then lynch the last non-confirmed town last day if we don't catch the last scum by then.

[McStab]

How's Elmo not dead yet?

[McStab]

Fine, I'll lynch Arugula too, I'd rather save TheWorst for tomorrow's lynch if we need it. If you (Lucky) investigate one of me/TheWorst/Elmo and then Bub watches you while we lynch Arugula today, I could get on board with that. But Elmo keeps wanting to lynch Bub which would break the logical setup. I think he's flailing scum trying to break the setup by convincing us to lynch Bub.

Actually, Elmo needs to die today or tomorrow. Anyone who disagrees with the way we've broken the game isn't pursuing a pro-town agenda, and that's what Elmo is doing.

Vote: Arugula

If I die tonight for some reason, make sure we continue to use Lucky to make conf. townies and Bub protects Lucky. If Bub is scum we can wait till LyLo when we should be amongst a bunch of conf. townies, and Bub can get lynched then. I doubt he is though. Lucky, make sure you investigate one of me Elmo or TheWorst tonight, and Bub, protect Lucky.

[McStab]

That's right Elmo et al, Mafia actually did have squadoosh in the PR department.

Nothing really to add other than my insightfulness on Night 1 that led me to get nailed by Bub anyway. Fun fact: I'm atheist, even anti-organized religion IRL, so drawing Mafia in this church-themed game was hilariously fitting.

I'm similarly oriented, so scumhunting was hilarious. Wow, we would've been pretty messed over if Lucky had investigated Arugula, so fortunate things turned out differently.

I liked the setup, Philammon, kept us on our toes.

[McStab]

Also, great instincts from Bub in watching RXK, thanks for the compliments from TheWorst, and good job hiding Arugula.