Mini 1379 - Game Over!

[redtail896]

VOTE: havingfitz

I agree with Robert; he feels a little forced.

[redtail896]

It's page 2. I don't see anything "altogether indicative of scum motivation" from anybody. Just hints towards it from certain people.

[redtail896]

a) your other avatar was better
b) what hints?

a) I might switch back or find a third; this one is a bit old. I couldn't get a good image for the previous one though; I wanted more of the cover.

b) 22 and 33 (the latter in particular) feel like he's trying to find something to say, but he's not really adding to the discussion. Hence, forced.

What scum motivation do you find in Axxle?

[redtail896]

BB: Agree with Robert was poor wording; robert's note on the previous page was what drew my attention to you. You're right, he gave no real reasoning for what he's doing.

But the forced point stands. 20 and 33 don't read like legitimate questioning; they read like you're trying to find something to say so that it looks like you're contributing. So you pick random things to jump on. For example, instead of asking that question to BB, you could've written what you just wrote to me in response to Robert's vote.

[redtail896]

@fitz: you're right, I meant you and wrote BB. Sorry for the typo.

Also: you asked Robert what JKS meant, not Maestro. Preview edit: beaten on this.

So you didn't agree with Robert (despite what you said). He just brought me to your attention (as opposed to the other two voters I had on me att). Basically...you were not being truthful (or not being completely accurate?) when you said part of the reason you voted me was that you agreed with Robert. Got it.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The other two voters blended into the rest of RVS. Robert's line at the bottom of page 1 seemed extreme, so I took another look. And 20 and 33 seemed forced (more on this in a sec). "Not being completely accurate" is an exaggeration; more accurate would be to say that I agreed with Robert's initial suspicion of you.

Now, on to the question of "forced." When I say that I felt your questions were forced, I mean that they felt unnatural (cf definition 2); it's like you're trying to find something to say for the sake of having something to say. It just rubbed me the wrong way.

RobertMontana, having played with me in my last game, will now proceed to point out how hypocritical I'm being. And he's right. UNVOTE: I'm doing to you what was just recently done to me.

Reread imminent.

[redtail896]

@fitz: I'm finding you suspicious for things that I'm prone to doing when I'm town. See Mini 1373 (which had Robert as well).

@UN: Yes, I know how long it is. I've reread it a few times now looking for something.

[redtail896]

@BB: Why?

[redtail896]

It's not.

You BB voters need to explain why you think DocBB would not say what he said.

Because he's not a total idiot.

How about this: can you explain why you think BB is scum?

[redtail896]

Who's interested in lynching BB? I'm not att.

There are multiple people interested in lynching BB for reasons that are not clear to me. They seem to be looking at (as Slandaar pointed out earlier) post 61, but I don't see any scum motivation there.

[redtail896]

Fine: do you think BB is scum; why or why not?

And please don't just dodge again?

[redtail896]

^ the latter question mark should be a period.

[redtail896]

VOTE: UberNinja
Despite what you say, at that stage Axxle and BBMolla were terrible votes, and the burden is on you to justify otherwise.

And up until his most recent post, I found neither town nor scum motivation in Axxle (I say up until then as that's the period relevant to your question).

Can somebody with a scumread on BB please explain why?

[redtail896]

Also: I'll post about the robert wagon later today.

[redtail896]

What is the case on UN? I think Cooldog and redtail are off the mark with their reasoning and the other two appear to be holdovers from RVS. Looks like targeting the most prolific (by far and away) poster.

He is certainly the most prolific poster, and I'm aware that the most prolific might naturally tend to have said the most scummy things (simply because s/he has said more).

BBmolla was being dumb/too jokey, and is still being scummy. One liners. Votes without reasons (lol). Great place for a vote. He still hasn't gotten better.

Axxle was making posts without content, and was also a good choice. Now he's made a good post with a good vote attached. That was after I changed my vote, but I don't give a fuck.

When I look at BBMolla, I see little content and less in the way of substantive content, but I don't see scummy. I agree that we could use a little more info on his trollie vote; the most I got out of him when I asked him was "Robert is too easy" (paraphrase). But you need to sell me on why that's scummy and not just how he's playing. By contrast, you say quite a bit and post often, yet I see little in the way of reasoning from you.

Your Axxle logic is even worse. At the time you were voting Axxle, he had 2 posts, both solidly in RVS. Nobody at the time was making posts with content. I'm actually willing to write your Axxle vote off as RVS too but a) you kept it there for quite some time, even while the game moved on, and b) you dodged any attempt to justify it while not moving it.

Next post (which I'm writing right now, I promise) on Robert; I want to avoid this being too long.

[redtail896]

Now, the Robert wagon. There are good robert votes and bad robert votes, or rather, good and bad reasons to vote robert.

Good: I agree with fitz that the first paragraph of Post 99 is bs; fitz's suspicion of me was clear and unambiguous, not couched in any manner. Conceivably Robert misconstrued what fitz said about being late and distortion as...no, forget that. I don't see how he could have misconstrued what fitz said in that section. Fitz clearly meant those as reasons to vote for me, but somehow Robert takes them to be possible outs if the wagon doesn't materialize.

His suspicion of Trollie feels a bit too OMGUS for my liking, but I don't read as much into it as Axxle does. As an early reason for suspicion, it's perfectly fine; if he later jumped onto the hypothetical wagon I would require a bit more from him than "I already said I was suspicious."

Bad: I don't really care about his town reads, even if I disagree with them. I don't understand why he reads BB as town (null for me), but fine. And I'm not even touching his townread of me; that's got WIFOM written all over it. I certainly don't see anything inherently scummy in his townreads (NB: I might be biased, as he townread me).
Also: UN's vote on Robert is godawful, and his later latching onto Axxle's reasoning isn't much better.

In the final analysis, I could probably be convinced to vote for Robert, but am happy with my current vote. I do think that these are both good wagons.

[redtail896]

Fitz: Please read posts: 44 and 46

[redtail896]

Also, out of curiosity, why did you specify that range?

[redtail896]

@UN: can you be more specific please?

[redtail896]

OK, nothing really for me to respond to here. I will attempt to clarify once again that the fact that the reason I said your [fitz] vote was hedging was because you *did* indeed make a case on redtail, but when it came to the actual vote, you used terms like "because he was late" and "IMO". That's what I mean by insurance. That being said, I didn't mind your last post, and since your wagon is going nowhere;

Fitz is more of a gut read which will develop with more content, but his reponse to redtail looked like he wanted to focus on the structural problems of the argument rather than disputing its truth.

He hasn't had any real suspicions so far and his vote on redtail is still heavily couched ("Vote redtail because he came late and is distorting things"). Feels like an accusation in order to have an accusation

. IMO, bad/poorly reasoned/semi-RVS reads are generally decent scumtells, so I am happy with my vote at this stage.

Also, what in Trollie's few posts do you find so damning?

[redtail896]

UN: I find it funny that the post of your own that you quote in that wall (it's in the middle of post 155) has you making actual substantive arguments. Which you don't appear to be doing in this game.

In response to UN, I suspect you as scum indepedently of BBMolla's accusation. So do a few others. Can you respond to that rather than simply stating you are obvstown because you are being tunnelled by someone even though you are their third vote?

Nitpick, but being their third vote is irrelevant to whether or not it's tunneling.

More concretely, since you are on my wagon, can you and also Trollie and Axxle identify who you believe are my scumpartners? That is, if I was modkilled this instant and flipped scum, who would you switch your vote to?

I don't like this. You asking us to posit potential scumteams at this stage feels (as Fancy pointed out) way to WIFOMy. Why didn't you just ask who they suspected, as opposed to asking who would be your partner?

[redtail896]

I just like the people on this wagon too much to leave it.

Comparitively, the Robert wagon is garbage.

I have no idea what to make of this. Why are you on this wagon? Why is the Robert wagon garbage.

Robert: I notice you spend a good bit of time talking about your suspicion of UN, but are still voting Trollie? Why is that?

[redtail896]

^Ugh, punctuation errors. Sorry about that.

Also: welcome Mastin!

CoolDog: how much of your vote would you say is due to UN's self-meta defense vs. why you voted him in the 1st place?

[redtail896]

Hi Pine! Welcome.

BBMolla: another question; why would you be willing to jump on the Trollie wagon?

[redtail896]

UNVOTE:
Alright, a few catchup things. Sorry I've been a bit quiet the last few days; this was a 3 problem set week, but now it's over.
Axxle: I'd like to see some more scumreads from you; what do you think of RM's more recent actions and who else do you find scummy?

UN looks town to me. I'm not entirely sure about Robert.

He's seemed scummy, and that's good enough for now.

This bugs me.

Mastin's note about the wagons is well taken. I would be willing to take a dark horse, but I find it most interesting that neither major wagon today reached L-2 at any time. In fact, I've been waiting for one to do so, as it would've immediately been something to jump on. Instead we've been rather listless. To me, that suggests that these wagons are not scum vs. town (still working out whether they're scum vs. scum or town vs. town).

[redtail896]

@UN: but this question makes sense. Robert's vote on trollie while continually noting suspicion of you is puzzling at best.

[redtail896]

^I like this

VOTE: Fancy Pants

Also, as noted, "that's good enough for now" is not particularly acceptable at this stage.

[redtail896]

@havingfitz: what problems do you have with the wagon's composition?

[redtail896]

@mastin: as you said, we're close to deadline, and fancy hasn't exactly done anything townworthy.

Honestly: my biggest concern at this stage is that UN vs. Robert was scum vs. scum. It, combined with a number of inactives, could be a reason that neither wagon got past L-3 and Robert, despite frequently expressing suspicion, was unwilling to jump onto the UN wagon and stuck with trollie. But I have no real evidence for this suspicion other than gut and observing how the wagons formed and disappeared. Thoughts?

[redtail896]

It's a fine length mastin.

I'm guessing your rejection of my scum vs. scum theory is because you think both UN and RM are town? I guess I can buy that, but I still don't fully have an explanation for why Robert kept his vote on trollie while continuing to express suspicion of UN. I may have misinterpreted; I'll have to reread.

To the remains of the UN and RM wagons: given that deadline is less than 48 hours and both wagons have fallen apart, who would you like to lynch?

Preview edit: Mastin, I reject your assertion that FP will "almost certainly not" be lynched today.

[redtail896]

nvm: I misunderstood what you said. Ignore that preview edit.

[redtail896]

And I'd like to appeal once again on top of what has already been said:
We have ~22.5 hours till deadline. If your vote is not on a major wagon, you better have a really, really good reason.

This list includes:
TheTrollie
adorkable
Slandaar
CoolDog


By keeping your vote off major wagons this close to deadline, you are greatly increasing the chance of a no-lynch. This is not a pro-town action.

[Pretty sure I haven't missed anybody; somebody correct me if so]

[redtail896]

I am euro so will be around tomorrow to move vote if Axxle wagon doesn't fly

stop pestering me.

Which of the two major wagons do you prefer?

[redtail896]

@UN: let's go through FP's ISO and examine it piece by piece (which we now have time for; thanks for the extension Mod!).

ISO 0 + ISO 1: RVS. One could maybe argue that the latter was out of RVS, but in that case it's an acceptable reason for voting so early in the day.

ISO 2: This is a really interesting post, and could almost be presented as a textbook case of fence-sitting. He isn't convince of RM's conclusions, but doesn't disagree with the argument. He finds RM's town reads "strange," but chalks it up to being emphatic. I come away having no idea what FP's opinions are. He's not saying anything substantial.

ISO 3: FP says (correctly) that BB's first post is no reason to lynch him. He also says we should be worried about RM. I still have no idea what Fancy Pants thinks about anybody.

ISO 4: There are 4 elements to this post. The first is merely answering a question from Fitz. The second gives a mediocre (but fine for very early game) reason for FP's RVS votes. The third cites RM being "emphatic" as "worrisome." I don't really understand the fourth part, but at least he says that he finds something Robert did "a bit suspicious."

ISO 5: Defends his questioning of RM's reads and says he's not buddying fitz or trollie. He then talks about BB's "trying to link a lot of people together very early in the game," which he finds not scummy, but rather odd. Noted, but I think the way you phrased this makes it quite easy for you to later jump on a BB wagon (or not). Finally, he votes Robert based on RM's WIFOMy question (which, to be fair, was not great). Looking back, one could say he's been kinda building to this, but the biggest hint we've gotten till not is that he found some action of Robert's a bit suspicious. For the record, this was the fourth (and functionally final) vote on the Robert wagon, bringing Robert vs. UN to 4 vs. 4.

ISO 6: Small nothing about a previous assumption, but it's good to note how quickly FP can and does label a previous statement of his as "not a strong assumption."

ISO 7: "He seemed scummy, and that's good enough for now." There is nothing good about that sentence. Really. Also presents his first solid townread of D1 (and his second actual read altogether), although the first line of this post "UN looks town to me" could be taken as a read. Actually, I'll count that. Note: it's on the major opposing wagon of the day so far, and it's a sentiment shared by many in town.

ISO 8: First vote on the FP wagon and he immediately asks for reasons. Unclear whether he knew a wagon would form on him so quickly, but he's very quick to immediately become defensive.

ISO 9: The first half of this has already been deconstructed by mastin. In the second half, FP votes for BB, after previously expressing one of his few actual townreads on precisely that person. Now, obviously stuff happened in between (68 posts to be exact), but he spends very little time talking about this. Instead, he merely notes that he finds BB difficult to read, and concludes that BB is scummy. Actually, he might be concluding that BB is not necessarily scummy, but is anti-town.

ISO 10: But that defense goes down in flames here, where FP solidly says he thinks BB is scummy. He provides no reasoning why difficult to read = scummy.

tldr: FP has consistently avoided giving real information about what he thinks, instead relying on fence-sitting and rhetoric to avoid saying much of anything. When he has made substantive statements or given actual reads they have been easy and sheepish, without much justification. He has, from my perspective, performed no active scumhunting.

[redtail896]

Mastin, what are you doing? Why the **** did you suddenly abandon the Fancy Pants wagon?

I kind of agree with UN on Robert, if only because, once the pressure on him let up, Robert stopped substantively posting.

With regards to the Fancy Pants is newb town theory: I just don't buy it. Partially for the reasons already listed, but mostly because he doesn't

feel

like a newb. It's a very unscientific thing, but when I read through his posts I don't get the sense of a new player cowed by excessive rhetoric and scared to express his opinions. It's something to do with his choice of terminology and the way he interacts with other players. Sorry it's not more concrete; it's an intuition.

[redtail896]

BB's jump to Axxle was consistent with what he said earlier. I don't see any great reason that he's scum.

Robert: that was unhelpful. Whether you like it or not, BB is a real wagon.

adorkable: given proximity to deadline, please just post whatever you have.

mastin: I also hate people reading too much into the "browsing this forum" line (given that I keep MS open as a tab most of the day, but am rarely actively reading). You would need a lot to sell me that that was a scumtell. Also bear in mind that none of us can see what you saw.

[redtail896]

As long as I live for a few nights, I'm fine being lynched.

I...I don't know how to respond to this.

[redtail896]

Rereading D1, I keep asking myself why the UN vs. Robert fight stalled out at 4v4 (I know I keep harping on this point; bear with me).

There are 3 scenarios:
1. Town vs. Scum
2. Town vs. Town
3. Scum vs. Scum

Here, in my preview posts, I had a long case-by-case analysis of all three, but I'm just going to give the short version (I can go more in depth if needs be):
Case 1: Why didn't scum try to tip the town wagon into being decisive?
Case 2: Why didn't scum try to take both or one wagon to L-2 or L-1? Why did scum allow a town vs. town wagon fight to disintegrate like that?
Case 3: Ah, here we're on promising ground. In this scenario, scum have an active interest in keeping both wagons from getting to L-2, which explains all the random voting we observed during the period.

Case 3 also has the benefit of explaining one of the things that's been bugging me for a while. Observe this votecount:

Spoiler: Votecount at the Height of UN vs. Robert

Day 1

Axxle ( 1 )

[/color]

(L - 6 )

Maestro
BBmolla ( 1 )

[/color]

(L - 6 )

Verity
CooLDoG ( 0 )

[/color]

(L - 7 )

Fancy-Pants ( 0 )

[/color]

(L - 7 )

havingfitz ( 0 )

[/color]

(L - 7 )

Maestro ( 0 )

[/color]

(L - 7 )

redtail896 ( 0 )

[/color]

(L - 7 )

RobertMontana ( 4 )

[/color]

(L - 3 )

TheTrollie, UberNinja, Axxle, Fancy-Pants
Slandaar ( 0 )

[/color]

(L - 7 )

TheTrollie ( 1 )

[/color]

(L - 6 )

RobertMontana
UberNinja ( 4 )

[/color]

(L - 3 )

Slandaar, CooLDoG, redtail896, BBmolla
Venrob ( 0 )

[/color]

(L - 7 )

Verity ( 0 )

[/color]

(L - 7 )

Not Voting ( 2 ) Venrob, havingfitz

Total Votes ( 13 )

Needed to Lynch [ 7 ]

Deadline: October 4th at 11:00AM EST

Venrob is V/LA until Sep 29

Searching for replacement for Verity

Searching for replacement for Maestro.

At this point, Robert had continually pointed out suspicious actions of UN and was at L-3 with UN as the competing wagon,

yet was voting for Trollie

. I have yet to hear or think of a good reason for this.

tldr: I think UN vs. Robert was scum vs. scum. I know I've expressed this theory before, but I want to rehear objections to it. Thoughts?

mastin: I agree that BB should hardclaim; I also hate softclaims. If he refuses, I may be willing to vote there as well.

[redtail896]

Redtail: Entertaining it, though my thought

was

one of/both of Pine/adorkable being scum, and RM/UN being the final member.

What changed? Yesterday you rejected it as you had townreads on both.

[redtail896]

I never said I was a town Power Role as far as I can remember. I implied it enough to try to draw the night kill sure.

Or I'm scum that set myself up for a fake claim and instead claimed Vanilla Townie for no feasible reason.

If you're town, you should've known that the softclaim just made you look scummier,

deterring

the nightkill.
For the record, I think what BBM did was anti-town, but not scummy. Would listen to arguments to the contrary though.

mastin: you are buddying me like crazy. And not, methinks, in a great way.
If you think RM vs UN was scum vs. town, then why didn't scum push the town lynch? Also, I don't see any strong reasons for your connections re: Post 468.

[redtail896]

Sorry for the length of this post; was driving all day and now need to play catchup.

Why are you so sure that BB is scum?

I'm getting the distinct feeling that BB might be town and mastin is capitalizing on his derpiness this game in order to push mislynches.

Noted. This interests me.

Axxle: My UN vs. Robert theory is ambivalent on a 3rd scum.

If you think RM vs UN was scum vs. town, then why didn't scum push the town lynch?

Because I didn't think that 'til after FP flipped town.

I don't think you get my meaning. If one and only one of UN and RM was scum, why didn't scum push harder for the other one to be lynched? For example, you have a townread on UN. If you then claim that Robert is scum, I would need to understand why, in the votecount I posted, Robert didn't jump onto the UN wagon.

Also: personal opinion, but I don't find nightkill speculation to be productive this early. Slandaar was widely considered town, and that's sufficient for my purposes.

mastin: you are connecting people every which way; it looks like a map of Europe pre-WWI. If you're scum, this is all obviously BS. If you're town, it's so convoluted and jumpy that it might well be worthless. Either way, slow down.

Re: BB; trollie, it's not sufficient for you to keep claiming that what BBM did was dumb. Nobody contests that. But why would

scum

BB do this, especially as the contradictions are so obvious? Also, I don't think there was any point at which BB was in serious danger of being lynched.

[redtail896]

I'd like to add that the attack Axxle points out as ridiculous in Post 522 is in fact ridiculous.

What? Fancy-Pants wagon seems to be based on "Let's see where this leads." Doesn't sound worth my time.

Axxle: don't know if you remember, but when you posted this did you think the FP wagon would succeed?

Mastin: 2 points
1. On nightkill speculation:
First of all, I don't recall anybody expressing serious suspicion of Slandaar (feel free to contradict me on this). Second, the reason Slandaar was killed over another generally town-considered person could be arbitrary. Third, as a relatively silent, generally town-considered person, the scumteam could conceivably (and, it turns out, correctly) have thought he was most likely to be a PR.

Finally, I think that your speculation down this road is merely WIFOM city, more likely to confuse everybody then contribute productively to scumhunting. You yourself invoked occam's razor not 3 pages ago; the simplest explanation for Slandaar's death is likely the best, especially this early.

2. On my crazy theory:
We may have to agree to disagree on this point. I had minor scumreads on both D1 (well, more than minor on UN, but it minored a bit later on), and it satisfies me as a solution to the problems I've pointed out.

[redtail896]

Regardless of what you say mastin, Pine is an easy lynch. He hasn't really said anything (he never even moved his vote D1 from what verity had) and I don't see any examples of "obfuscating stupidity" (feel free to post them out). This should not be interpreted as me having a towntell on Pine; rather, I don't have a scumtell, as other than not being very present he hasn't done anything. I will, however, lay down this ultimatum:

Pine, I want words. From you. Constructive words. Words that aid the town scumhunting effort. If I don't get this, I will hop on your wagon. Regardless of your alignment, you being lynched is a bad thing. The way to prevent that? Give me information. Who do you think is scum? Why? Comment on the wagons and theories of yesterday and today.

[redtail896]

fuck. UberNinja is scum.

UNVOTE: BBmolla
VOTE: UberNinja

Trollie: thoughts on my UN-Robert theory?

[redtail896]

Mod: Sorry to do this, but I'll be V/LA until early Monday morning.

I have time for some quick last notes though:

trollie: I see what you're saying, but I do think that scum would've had ample opportunity to try harder to get one of UN or Robert lynched.

mastin: I don't think Axxle addressing his defense to you means anything. Also, you neglect to actually respond to his response, basically saying "he's scum so I'm not going to argue with him" (paraphrasing).

[redtail896]

Hey everybody, I'm back. Sorry for the disruption.

Fitz, Slandaar may not be omnipotent, but he was killed over other players, such as redtail and myself. Contrary to what UN claims, I HAVE been second-guessing myself for PRECISELY THAT REASON. If *I* was right, if *my* reads were better...then why am I alive and he, dead? His reads have to have SOMETHING in them better than mine.
Hence, why I think his lynch-list contains 2 scum. (That I'm currently guessing to be Axxle and you.)

I know I've been on about this, but I honestly think you're reading far too much into Slandaar's death.

For me, the most damning thing about Robert is his visibility. As has been pointed out, he's only really active while under suspicion, and said activity rarely seems to be active scumhunting. In addition, while I've only played one game with him, I should point out that in that game he was much more active, particularly in terms of content (NB: he was PR in that game). Compare for yourself

BBMolla: This is unhelpful. Can you give us a bit more of your thought process?

I find the Votecount in 632 very intriguing. I don't have more to say right now, but I'm trying to work out how the scum would be trying to turn such a situation in their favor.

[redtail896]

BB: actually, that's exactly what I wanted. Thanks for that.

Looking through Fitz's voting history, he only has 4 votes: the early vote on me, wagoning BB yesterday, voting BB early today, and now the L-1 on Robert. Thoughts?

[redtail896]

mastin: can you explain the "he opened my spoiler" thing in more detail? Sorry, I just missed it.

Is it possible that mastin could be so, so, SO wrong about FP? Because, fucking wow.

I was. More generally, people are wrong that way all the time, especially D1. Perhaps this is some sort of psychological self-protection thing, but I have a hard time blaming mastin for incorrectly thinking FP was scum.

I find the Votecount in 632 very intriguing. I don't have more to say right now, but I'm trying to work out how the scum would be trying to turn such a situation in their favor.

Now I'm intrigued too, but I just don't know what I'm intrigued about. Can you share it with me?

I will, but not right now.

Pedit: ^This

[redtail896]

Sigh.

Anyways, to summarize Mastin's case one me:

1. I'm playing like a townie would in this situation (BUT MAYBE IM SCUM WIFOMING IT UP)
2. I didn't read the thread yesterday, bu rather today.

Am I missing something. Axxle, Im still on P10. Im just responding to shit that happens right now because its happening and I like to play in real time >.>

And yes, I'm clearly trying to save my buddy. Because that makes sense.

This feels like wild misrepresentation. VOTE: AngryPigeon

Pedit: Not that it matters. WTF? Give me a sec to untangle this.

UN: sorry I never got to the "intriguing comment"; I have stuff written up, but it's mostly irrelevant now.

[redtail896]

UN: slow the **** down. There is no rush. Explain.

Mastin: did you explicitly promise that? You said your vote would be on Robert but he was at L-1, but did you actually make that promise?

[redtail896]

Pigeon: I'll get to you in a sec, I promise. First, I want to sort out this UN-Mastin thing.

[redtail896]

Pigeon: have you finished reading the thread?

[redtail896]

Pidgeon, I'm not answering a question that takes as an assumption that I'm scum. Try again.

(Also, sorry for misspelling your name up to this point; just realized my mistake).

[redtail896]

NB: you have smiley faces after both those sentences. Also, you never formally promised (although I don't know that this matters).

UN: Mastin wasn't ninja-ed by you. He definitely know that you had unvoted RM when he voted for Robert (btw: the preview system on this forum is awesome).

SO EITHER HE WANTED IT TO LOOK LIKE HE WAS TRYING TO HAMMER ROBERTMONTANA (FOR "CRED") OR HE WAS WAITING FOR SOMEONE TO UNVOTE SO HE COULD VOTE ROBERTMONTANA WITHOUT BEING THE HAMMER

The latter is true.

Now, that doesn't let mastin off the hook; I agree that there's a disturbing element of mastin wanting to be on the wagon but not the hammer (only really explainable by the fact that we haven't had an RM claim yet). But I don't see the explicit scumslip that you do.

[redtail896]

^This is actually a really good point.

[redtail896]

Quick post (longer one incoming): Mastin has an uncanny ability to see every action of Axxle's as scummy.

[redtail896]

Okay, on to Pidgeon:

Sigh.

Anyways, to summarize Mastin's case one me:

1. I'm playing like a townie would in this situation (BUT MAYBE IM SCUM WIFOMING IT UP)
2. I didn't read the thread yesterday, bu rather today.

Am I missing something. Axxle, Im still on P10. Im just responding to shit that happens right now because its happening and I like to play in real time >.>

And yes, I'm clearly trying to save my buddy. Because that makes sense.

This feels like wild misrepresentation. VOTE: AngryPigeon

Pedit: Not that it matters. WTF? Give me a sec to untangle this.

UN: sorry I never got to the "intriguing comment"; I have stuff written up, but it's mostly irrelevant now.

Lol, then what was his case on me? Oh, right. That I lied about reading the thread. I didn't. Redtail is scum. Guaranteed.

Alright, let's examine your post 750. There are, I think, three points of interest.

A. Your point #2. I have no gripe with this, although you understate his point; his point is that you promised to read yesterday and didn't. Regardless, I actually think this is a completely stupid point on Mastin's part, and it has no real relevance to the conversation.

B. Your point #1. That is not what Mastin is saying. Actually, if I understand correctly,

that is the precise opposite of Mastin's point

. Mastin is claiming that you are playing poorly as a feint, trying to get us to think that you are too incompetent to be scum. He says this here and here. You are misrepping him.

C. You address Mastin's case, but no others. Except for that last line, where you derisively dismiss the idea that you're trying to save a scumbuddy. But you don't give any reason for said dismissal, and it's not a crazy idea. Either you have read the whole thread and are acting as if you haven't (mastin's theory), or you haven't read the whole thread and are putting it off to engage with us over Robert. Neither looks particularly good for you, and I struggle to see town motivation. Unless you seriously think we're about to mislynch Robert and you have a strong town read on him, you're trying to address a situation without full knowledge of the facts. That seems like desperation.

You've also been kind of ignoring BB's meta case, although you have repeatedly stated some variation on "meta is bull****," so I'm not sure I expect you to address that further.

[redtail896]

tldr analysis: You're misrepping Mastin and trying to appear as if you're addressing the attacks against while actually ignoring half of them. This is not town behavior. Also, for what it's worth, your predecessors weren't exactly fountains of townieness.

Also, I like that you didn't actually object to anything I said, merely the way in which I said it.

[redtail896]

^Yes, we know, that post wasn't exactly Trollie's finest hour. What specifically are you talking about?

[redtail896]

Enlighten us. In your very next post.

Unofficial Vote Count

adorkable (0)
RobertMontana (3) UberNinja, TheTrollie, Axxle
Axxle (1) mastin2
BBmolla (1) havingfitz
TheTrollie (1) CooLDoG
UberNinja (1) RobertMontana
mastin2 (1) adorkable
Kimor (1) BBmolla
redtail896 (0)
CooLDoG (0)
havingfitz (0)

Not Voting (2) Kimor, redtail896

Deadline: October 22nd at 3:00PM EST

Kimor votes Robert (L-2)
Fitz votes Robert (L-1)
Pidgeon votes CoolDog (L-5)
Pidgeon votes Trollie (L-4)
Axxle unvotes Robert (L-2)
Mastin votes Pidgeon (L-5)
BBMolla votes Pidgeon (L-4)
BBMolla unvotes Pidgeon (L-5)
Axxle votes Robert (L-1)
UN votes Kimor (L-5)
Mastin votes Robert (L-1)
UN votes Mastin (L-5)
Pidgeon votes Mastin (L-4)
Redtail votes Pidgeon (L-5)
Trollie unvotes Robert (L-2)
Trollie votes Robert (L-1)

I think that's all the votes. I might've messed up one or two lynch numbers, but I'm positive that at least the ones on Robert are correct.

Okay, the initial votecount struck me as weird; it seemed far too disorganized. In my head, I thought that the Robert wagon would build up to L-2 or L-1 and a counterwagon would form (as they are naturally prone to do). I was going to look hard at the formation of said counterwagon, assuming it would have early scum support. But that didn't happen. Instead, we've kept Robert at L-1 and the closest thing to a counterwagon has been the brief attempt at Mastin and some small support for lynching Pidgeon. I want to know why that is.

[redtail896]

UN: I know, but he asked for it.

Robert, can you please claim and give us your thoughts on recent events?

[redtail896]

Spoiler: Trollie's Vote Analysis

(1) RM suspects UN is scum, and UN is the counterwagon to his own. Robert votes me. UN is the one with the wagon on him though and he is the only one besides Robert with a wagon on him. He has a scum read on UN, voting UN adds to the counterwagon preventing his own lynch, why doesn’t he vote UN? I can see no reason other than to avoid suspicion (or that UN is a buddy I guess which is red’s thing from earlier today)
(2) In #175 vote is this:
Robert (4): TheTrollie, UN, Axxle, FP
UN (4): Slandaar, CooLDoG, redtail, BB

Trollie(1): RM
BB(1):Verity
Axxle(1): Maestro

It stays there for a while and then FP talk starts and very very rapidly in #272 its this

FP(5): RM, UN, Redtail, BB, Mastin2
RM(2): Trollie, FP
UN (2): Slandaar, CooLDoG

BB(3): Pine, fitz, axle

#341 UN jumps off FP and FP moves to BB
BB(4): pine, fitz , axxle, fp
FP(4): RM, redtail, BB, mastin

Axxle (1): slandaar
Cool(1): trollie
Fitz(1): adork
UN(1): cooldog

#430 bb jumps off FP and on axle, cooldog jumps on fp BB becomes L-2 as I jump on it

#453 is the lynch
FP(7): RM, redtail, cooldog, mastin, bb, axle, adork

Ok this is big and important.
a. RM was being so so so so so shady. To the point where like the only argument I can remember against voting for him was that he was an “easy target.” If he is town, scum could have easily pushed that lynch when it was RM(4)v.UN(4):
Robert (4): TheTrollie, UN, Axxle, FP
UN (4): Slandaar, CooLDoG, redtail, BB
Robert lynch could have easily been pushed, but it wasn’t, Robert avoids pushing the counterwagon. IMPORTANTLY, AS SOON AS Fantsy-Pants gets people suspicious, Robert, UN, redtail and BB (ppl who are critical to the Robert v. un wagons) jump on FP. FP and Slandaar (who are both conftown) stay put.
Conclusion: Robert is scum otherwise that wagon would have grown to more than 4 votes.

very important:

if Robert is town, UN & Axxle are scum. At the very least one of them would have to be otherwise that wagon would have grown faster (because the scum would join it). This also explains why they both ditch the Robert wagon once fantsy pants comes around. Also note that Robert is fine switching to fantsy but not to UN.

b. fuck there was more but im like super multitasking and this is making my head hurt.

Tl;dr

At least 2 of {RM, UN, Axxle} are scum. RM is the starting point. if he flips town UN and Axxle look very very bad.
Im worried about lynching RM but I think he is the best chance we have. After reviewing this the alternative story where RM is town and UN/Axxle are scum seems pretty persuasive but seeing one of them flip will not resolve this story whereas seeing a RM flip will.

I have said it before and I’ll say it again: Robert is a good lynch because he is pretty damn scummy, and likely scum. The reason he is a better lynch than any other scummy candidate is that his flip is going to be the most informative. There are so many interactions with him, and, critically, this analysis I provide shows how useful RM’s flip is.

Waiting to hear from him before I put my vote back on.

Last note, I have a gut feeling that one of {cooldog, redtail and mastin} is scum if RM is town. But my brain says that’s dumb, so I cant really say why I feel this way.

I'd just like to thank you for this. I'm glad somebody has finally caught on to what I've been saying for quite some time. Why did RM vs. UN stall at 4v4? Why didn't Robert vote UN (who he clearly suspected)? Listen to this vote count analysis.

[redtail896]

Two clear reasons for RM not voting me during Day 1 wagon wars are:

1. Because he didn't want to be accused of OMGUS, or
2. He didn't wanna be on a wagon leading to a town flip.

1. Given the amount he had previously said against you, it would hardly have been OMGUS.
2. Scum do this all the time.

[redtail896]

VOTE: RobertMontana
Unlike some of you guys, I don't want pressure on Robert to go away.

Trollie: I was in that game. It's not really comparable; that was a bizarre game, defined almost entirely by the two town PRs being forced to claim on D1 (of which Robert was one). I have a hard time taking any meta from that game, but for what it's worth RM feels different here compared to there.

Also (and I want an answer from Trollie on this): why do you think Robert didn't jump onto the UN wagon (at the time you pointed out)?

[redtail896]

UNVOTE:
No, it wasn't.

[redtail896]

Leastaways, I don't think so. Either way, the way Kimor did that was a bit *ugh* for my tastes.

[redtail896]

There is something I definitely want before anybody hammers.

Mod: Any chance we could have an official votecount? Thanks.

Pedit: I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but you still need an explanation for Robert not voting UN (recall this is the nexus of my UN/RM = Scum vs. Scum theory).

Also, goodnight all; I'll be without internet until tomorrow morning.

[redtail896]

Hey Mod: sorry to hear about the midterms; hope it goes well.

Oh hey! What a surprise! My three scum-reads make up 75% of what’s left of the RM wagon:

RM (4): fitz, axle, kimor, un

And that should give you pause. Please tell me you don't actually believe all 3 scum grouped together like that.

Mastin: I disagree that you weren't getting anything coherent. I think there were questions that you neglected to ask though.

Q. If RM was scum,

why didn't the UN wagon grow?

Q. If UN was scum,

why didn't the RM wagon grow?

Go back to 1030 and ask yourself those questions. I want to see if you come to the same conclusions I have.

[redtail896]

Ok, is no one else seeing RT scum? I mean come on. He has yet to show any serious thought on anyone other than "Hey guys lets beat the D1 wagons with a stick until they die". then lets beat them some more. God knows how I feel about anything going on right now like mastin/kimor/ap or un/trollie.

I think Trollie's conviction that RM is town has come out of nowhere (and I don't agree with it). His anti-UN argument is interesting and I might end up going along with it, but I need to reread UN.

Lurking alone is not a scumtell. Laying low until the wagon dissipates while everybody waits for you to claim, though, IS a valid tactic.

In fact, it seems to be working pretty well for him.

I think this is an excellent point.

I think mastin buddies quite a bit, but I'm not sure how much of it could be construed as scum-driven (disclaimer: I am one he has buddied).

I think AP's posting has turned around in quality, but that doesn't entirely excuse his actions earlier in the day, which

did

feel like an effort to distract.

It seems that there are (broadly) two schools of thought: Robert-AP and UN-Kimor. I hate forming linkages like this; suffice to say I think Robert could easily be scum while AP is town, but am less sure about UN-Kimor.

Kimor-Robert is interesting, but I don't see any great evidence for it.

I also think that a few of us are drowning out/allowing the rest of us to coast.

I also understand Kimor's frustration with the way the day is continuing.

Finally, I like beating the D1 wagons because I think they're informative.

Pedit: this was all done before what trollie just wrote; reading that now.

[redtail896]

Read it: I see your argument much better now.

If situation A were true, why doesn’t RM, UN, or scumbuddy3 try to get a BB or Axxle wagon going?

Because there were enough lurkers that the wagons would naturally stall and town would start up a different wagon (which is what eventually happened).

Also: I don't think I'm willing to vote Kimor right now; I'd appreciate it if somebody could argue in a concise manner why I should.

[redtail896]

(1) because RM's meta shows that what we see as shady and scummy is his playstyle. Redtail keeps saying that other game was different. maybe it was, but doesn't change that the things he said in that game sound like they come from the same state of mind as those he has said in this one.

We have to agree to disagree on this one. A. That was such a fundamentally weird game that I have a hard time drawing

any

meta conclusions from it, but if you must, B. He feels different to me in this game.

[redtail896]

Trollie: if we lynched UN and he flipped town, what would you say?

[redtail896]

VOTE: RobertMontana

[redtail896]

Suggestion: I think we need a massclaim.

In particular, the flaw I'm finding in UN's argument is that if both CoolDog and mastin are falseclaiming,

who are the actual town powerroles

? We haven't had a counter yet, and it's not as if they picked obscure roles to claim.

At the moment, I find mastin's argument much more persuasive, particularly the VCA.

Finally, the scenarios UN proposed early in the day seem really reaching.

[redtail896]

I would rather massclaim than No lynch, as I don't think the extra night lynch will produce much in the way of useful information.

I find it not inconceivable that scum could've organized a claim like this, however Cooldog and mastin's willingness to claim what would've been the easiest to counterclaim roles throws a wrench in that (given there are no counters).

I don't find it inconceivable that town PRs consisted of 4 one-shots, although it feels a little weak.

Kimor: I don't see that as UN counterclaiming. If he wanted to counterclaim, he would/should have done so already.

I want to hear what CoolDog says in response to UN's vig comments before I jump into that.

[redtail896]

I think scum are more likely to not be paying close attention in a game.

I disagree wholeheartedly with this, especially where PRs are concerned.

In fact, this whole post bugs me. Why on earth do you think AP would just come out with something like that? Given that there are no counterclaims and both Cool and Mastin claimed common roles, why do suspect fakeclaiming so heavily (although admittedly, considering we're in mylo, everything

should

be questioned)? Do you think it impossible that somebody would've gotten lost in the avalanche of posting yesterday?

I find this post quite scummy.

I need to read up a bit more on exactly how hiders work. I will say this though: I find it unlikely AP would not have used his hider ability last night.

[redtail896]

Alright, I'm back. Sorry for missing out the last couple of days; really bad days, but better now.

And holy **** I missed quite a bit. Let's start here:

I was hoping I wouldn't have to claim:

I am a Universal Backup

I became a 1-shot cop when Slandaar died.
I investigated Mastin last night.
He is town.

That you didn't bring this up

immediately

at the start of the day is bad. Given that you were a one-shot, there was absolutely no reason for you to sit on this piece of information. The problem is, if it's an attempt to save a scumbuddy, it's kind of a weird one; way too sudden and obvious.

Spoiler: mastin's Axxle theorizing

Though I will point out to UN:
-If Axxle is town, then his result on me means I'm town.
-If I am scum, Axxle would therefore have to be scum.
-However, if Axxle is scum, it doesn't necessarily mean I'm scum.

Basically, there are three possible scenarios:
Axxle's town, and I'm town.
Axxle's scum, and I'm scum.
Axxle's scum, and I'm town.

So in 2/3 scenarios, if you doubt Axxle, the correct move is not to vote me, but him. In only 1/3 scenarios am I a good lynch, whereas in 2/3, Axxle is.

I'm waiting on Axxle's answers before I make my judgment.

This is terrible.

Alright, let's think about this. Everybody, please follow along here.
Claim + 1: UN questions why he wasn't investigated.
Claim + 2: UN speculates that Axxle is trying to save mastin.
Claim + 3: mastin asks Axxle to answer UN's points
Claim + 4: UN states the bulk of his "This claim implies Axxle is scum" theory
Claim + 5: UN refers to Claim + 3 as distancing
Claim + 6: Pointless
Claim + 7: mastin's 2/3 - 1/3 stuff, then says he will wait for Axxle to respond
Claim + 8: Axxle explaining why he picked mastin and why he waited
Claim + 9: Really just and extension of Claim + 8
Claim + 10: UN calls Claim + 7 scummy
(jump to) Claim + 13: mastin tentatively doesn't buy it

Why is this relevant? Because what fascinated me about this back and forth is how mastin responded to the claim. Let's explore each possibility in turn:

Both are scum: Then mastin's response makes perfect sense. This was quite possibly not planned during the previous night, in which case mastin's confusion is likely genuine and he is working out what to do behind the scenes. Even if it was planned, mastin's posts could easily be him stalling to see what the town thought of the claim. Then he staked a position (although not as strong of one as I would expect).

Both are town: Here we're on shakier ground. First, the reason given by Axxle for waiting to reveal doesn't hold water. He knew there was suspicion of mastin yesterday, and he knew that it would only increase. He had no more PR uses, so he should've come right out and said it. Yes, it lines up mastin for a nightkill, but better he die by nightkill than be mislynched, costing us the game. And he had to know that doing it now would be suspicious. From mastin's side, while he investigates what Axxle said early, he doesn't focus on

motivations

. I would expect town-mastin to ask himself why scum-axxle would do what he did. But he doesn't; he instead focuses on voting arguments and what Axxle said yesterday. So I can't believe this scenario.

Axxle is scum and mastin is town: Here nothing makes sense. Did Axxle think this maneuver would give him towncred? Why isn't mastin asking himself about Axxle's motivations? Given we're already in mylo, why did Axxle feel the need to upset a very nice applecart? I have nothing here.

UN's Godfather theory: This is actually a bit more stable, but it doesn't fully explain Axxle's actions. We're still stuck with asking why Axxle didn't reveal earlier. The biggest flaw that I find with this theory is how mastin responded to it; he was far too tentative, and I would expect him to have planned for this and come out much more forcefully.

To make a long story short, I'm leaning towards both being scum, although it doesn't answer all questions (notably: why did Axxle feel the need to do this in the first place, and with such monumentally bad timing?).

More later.

Finally, I reiterate my calls for a massclaim, especially at this stage.

[redtail896]

Actually, I feel even more strongly now that we need a massclaim. Support for this?

[redtail896]

Bah. Sorry about being so absent D3. I should've gone with my gut.

Axxle: Why didn't you just claim at the start of day. I would've completely believed you then, but the delay made me suspicious. Sorry for doubting you.