Mini 1439 -- Game Over

[Ztife]

/confirm

[Ztife]

tbh I think #32 and #36 are scummy

I agree with this. #36 is the bigger scuminess by forcing comments that would probably have happened maturely. This was already happening in some cases already.

VOTE: fegelein

What some cases?

I get the impression that Fegelein is just impatient, but I'll vote him just to keep things going.

Vote: Fegelein

If he gets to l-1, I will retract my vote.

So what's the purpose of your vote then? What are you trying to pressure or get out of this bandwagon? By saying that you will unvote him at l-1 is counter-intuitive to any pressure you are trying to create, and it gives an opportunity for you to say you forget to unvote when a mislynch happens.

Vote:RadiantCowbells

[Ztife]

I don't have enough leads to leave RVS.

I'm just putting the vote down to keep things moving.
And see? I did just that. Discussion has been created!

How does it keep things moving? Of course, apart from the fact that I have pointed out the scumminess of it.
Like I have pointed out, its a meaningless pressure vote.

How would it be out of proportion? Explain to me, what should I be doing then if I found you scummy? Continue being in RVS instead of voting and questioning you?
You also seem to imply that I shouldn't be voting seriously just because its early in the game, is that what's making you defensive? For me trying to draw attention to your scum slip?

Also on what grounds are you voting me for?

[Ztife]

I am mildly displeased by this turn of events.

Please reply to post #71

[Ztife]

The logic of this wagon is so bad I don't feel any further justification is required.

It would be like trying to refute the statement I think, therefore I am not.

It's just not done.

How is the logic bad? Explain please. The only thing pointed out so far is
1. Contradiction of your vote
2. Your refusal to explain your contradiction

And now, there's also the irony of you saying that you have succeeded in "generating" discussion, you have also refused to try and stop the discussion by accepting that you wanna be D1 lynch and refuse to explain or elaborate.

As town, you would want defend your standpoint and generate as much discussion as possible. You should defend yourself (since apparently you have a town purpose in your actions I assume) and try to expose the scums who are easily jumping on your wagon and getting an easy lynch out of you. While I agree that its still early and we have more time to generate discussions and see what others have to post, NONE of your plays so far is pro-town or helpful to town at all. "Its too early in the game" is not going to let you off your scumminess for very long.

Everything you do is just making you look like scum and you're not even making any attempts to stop looking like one.

[Ztife]

How would it be out of proportion? Explain to me, what should I be doing then if I found you scummy? Continue being in RVS instead of voting and questioning you?
You also seem to imply that I shouldn't be voting seriously just because its early in the game, is that what's making you defensive? For me trying to draw attention to your scum slip?

I genuinely believe that Fegelein is town right now, but I want him to talk more so he can prove/disprove it to others, and in case it gets to l-1 without him changing my opinion, I am explaining that I will withdraw my vote in advance, so it doesn't look scummy if I withdraw and then he flips scum. Sort of the same thing as saying that a case "piques my interest", except I gave more detail about my reasoning for voting up someone that I considered town.

Believe it or not, not every higher brain function is decided by logic. Subconsciously, having an additional vote on his wagon and seeing a smaller L-# is going to make him feel more pressured regardless of whether it's actual pressure.

Day 1 lynches are mostly random, yet you jumped on my case like a dog on an ass flavoured biscuit and pushed for a wagon for an extremely silly reason and acted like I was basically confirmed mafia because of the god tier scumminess jam packed into 30 words. It seems to me like you are obviously just jumping on an opportunity because you're in a rush for day phase to end.

The push doesn't really make sense and the sloppiness of your push makes me think that you're just pretending to scumhunt, so I am voting you in return.
If I do get lynched today, I would highly advise any cops to verify your alignment.

Fair enough for now. This is alot better than saying "well someone has to take the noose" although your "pressure vote" was still crap.


@RedDragon
Who do you think are possible scums on the Cowbell wagon?

@Secret Agent Sloth
Why would Fegelein be the right lynch?

@Yolo how is your vote serious?

[Ztife]

This RadiantCowbells wagon piques my interest.

Unvote. Vote: RadiantCowbells

L-2.

elaboration, man. Don't just hop on a wagon saying it "piques your interest".

There's nothing to elaborate on. I liked the wagon, so I hopped on. As a response, RadiantCowbells shows a very defeatist attitude to this early L-2 wagon. After taking a quick peep at some of his other games, I don't think this is faked. In other words, RadiantCowbells is town.

Unvote. Vote: Secret Agent Slot

Serious vote. I'm out of RVS.

Wait, so your last vote on a wagon that interested you was just for the lulz!? I don't even understand this post.

No, I joined that wagon because I wanted to see it go to L-2. In other words, I did not join because I was convinced of RC's scummyness, but because I thought a big RC wagon could give us some information. It did (in my opinion).

@Yolo how is your vote serious?

My vote is serious in the sense that I'm not voting for the sake of gaining information or getting out of RVS. At this moment, I want to see Secret Agent Sloth lynched.

SAS's last two posts only serve to reinforce this opinion. He's making a mockery of this game. More votes for SAS please.

secret agent sloth is getting more and more awkward

If that is the case, why are you not voting him?

What's your case on them? Elobrate for me, so far Bacde/SAS interactions looks more like fillers rather than containing any substantiality in them. They are more of a null-tell for me at this point.

As pointed out by RD your vote on cowbells seems to be opportunisitic, care to tell us who are the likely scums you think on the wagon and why are you not questioning their votes?

A defeatist attitude is not a pro-town action, but it might not neccessarily be a scum-tell.

[Ztife]

I'll be up for a YOLO wagon though.

Unvote, Vote: YOLO

@Feg do you still think Bacde is scum? The exchanges.. are just awkward. Who else do you think could be scum?

Also, this defeatist issue has been discussed a couple of times now, and I think we can agree that most of us think its anti-town but a null tell.

@MrBump, make a case. Who are your scum reads so far?

YOLO and RC kinda up in my scum list now. Bacde, Sloth and Bump kinda townish.

Mostly just gut-reads.

[Ztife]

What's with the bump vote?

[Ztife]

will post up a couple more tonight, busy day

[Ztife]

How's childkid scummy?
Not the most pro-town behaviour though.

RC is still bad.

Feg seems too active for scum ATM, drawing too much attention.

Cherry dog seems opportunitistic.

Ok, now for YOLO;
post 95
Actually, a quick peek at RC's ISO shows a much more aggressive player than he is this game, thought this is not a point which I want to get much into.

post 246
How's childkid's behaviour any different from RC thus far? In fact, is this your "serious" vote or trying to get information?

From RC to SAS to childkid, seems pretty opportunistic to me.
How about your SAS vote whom you were so "serious" about lynching?
For someone who believes about competing wagons for D1, your plays have been pretty passive to me it seems.
What of the other players? MrBump? And what do you think of Bacde's passive play thus far? Do you think Om is scum hunting hard now?

[Ztife]

Bump voted for chillkid? Where? Can someone link me.

Due for a read after I reach home, phone's a bitch.

[Ztife]

Can't really find the time to ISO Bump atm.

DJ looks town. Seems to be alot more careful with his words when he's scum.

Any reason why you're buddying with om?

[Ztife]

I'm not actually saying you should all follow me because I'm playing to my town meta anyway.
Honestly, I've been playing kinda more towards my scum meta for most of the game. I've been too calculated in my actions and I've been more logically based in my arguments, which is mainly what happens when I'm playing as scum.

so whats the purpose of your self meta again?

[Ztife]

Its 4 days to deadline, get the big wagons up and discuss.
No more lame ass pressure voting and let scum derail us at this point.

In no particular order, im fine with Feg RC and yolo/evil lynch atm.

Feg/bacde exchange seems town/town. But Feg would probably make a good information lynch will all the opinions about him and seeing how his wagon would go.

[Ztife]

Its 4 days to deadline, get the big wagons up and discuss.
No more lame ass pressure voting and let scum derail us at this point.

In no particular order, im fine with Feg RC and yolo/evil lynch atm.

Feg/bacde exchange seems town/town. But Feg would probably make a good information lynch will all the opinions about him and seeing how his wagon would go.

you think its a good idea to lynch someone who you think is town?

I said the

exchange

seems town/town, that doesn't mean that it gives me a

strong

town-read on feg.

That said, its been 3 weeks and we have like 3 wagons that have been L-3 or closer (its from memory, dont take my word for it, check it out),
1/4 players being replaced,
and another 1/4 lurking.

Reads? I'll be lying if I said I have any strong reads with this sort of activity. Any scum/town reads are weak as best, and there are a lack of pressure with aggressive scum hunting to check on consistancy. RC was looking scummy and allowed to lurk for the rest of the game with almost no content. Am I still confident about my read on him? Can't say I am. Pretty much similiar case with YOLO. Was bump or feg really at any point really pressured to get hammered? I doubt it.

Almost every player has commented or interacted with feg one way or another, and that's why I feel knowing what he flips would be good for D2 discussion.

That said, its better than a NL or a rush lynch anyways.

So to make it clear,

at this point

, yes I would lynch a null to weak read, and no I won't lynch a strong town-read if I had one.

@evil, have you re-read the thread? who tops your scum list and can you vote?

[Ztife]

I also find Ztife's reasoning quite odd. It would be much better to vote someone that you find scummy, than voting someone you find Town to "gain information". You gain information from lynching anyone, you can see who was pushing hard on a wagon of a Townie, and if they flip scum, you can check out their interactions.

Also Om, wasn't I probably Town earlier?

About my flip-flop on piggybacking: You either misunderstood (I didn't word it well tbh), or you're misrepping it (most likely the former though). I said that you piggy-backed on SAS's ARGUMENT, NOT HIS VOTE.

I admit that I worded especially poorly in 449 (I meant you didn't sheep SAS, you just piggy-backed his argument, you were voting me before that with a weak case), and I'm sorry for the misunderstanding caused.

@Don: I said why I thought Bump was Town earlier.

I'll respond to Bacde's large post now.

I said its a better alternative to NL or a rushed lynch.

Why qwints?

[Ztife]

^^Am I the only one who thinks this guy is scum this game?

I might be willing to wagon qwints depending on if he even checks into this game. If he doesn't get any analysis out, he might just be trying to slip by

I think it's quite possible red dragon is scum, so no you're not the only one thinking that.

And I'm not overly convinced with the qwintz lynch, though what is concerning me with him is the slow progression from yolo vote to chainsaw defending him and them back to yolo vote.

Anyway without the reasons for everyone being where they are on fegel's list, I'm just going to have to assume they're placed there to look like he knows what it's going on.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: fegel

Reason?

unvote, vote fegelein

Reason?
On the hindsight, SAS made a good point, chillkid's slot did nothing good either. I'm good to go for this wagon.
SCUM FOUND.

Unvote, Vote: D_J

[Ztife]

although I'm getting this feeling that the mafia are just staying under our radars

Seems to me like you're softly showing your lack of commitment to major wagons, almost as if you already know they're going to flip town.

Fancy that?

Major wagons?
Which are? Care to fill me in?

OK, in order to sastify your needs Cheery, I will post my reasons (it's funny that you think Bacde is Town for the very same offence)

Bacde hasn't posted a readlist and neither have I, and you just keep generalizing your way out of things.
A few unexplainied reads are nothing compared to a whole list of

ordered

reads.

Wait, what is this Red Drgon case on YOLO that's effecting those two reads? There's nothing in his ISO that even resembles a case on YOLO unless wanting someone on L-2 is that serious?

Reason?

Scum motivation everywhere

Specifics?

I've been in the same shoes as don before (having to sub in for a scummy Townie), so I can sort of sympathize there.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

In case I'm not able to post, I'm gonna vote for the wagon that I hate the least that has a chance.

vote: feglein

I wish we could have lynched better d1.

Which other potential wagons does it seems like there is to you? Who are your scum reads? What's your true read on feg then?

[Ztife]

D_J could be scum, but I have a feeling that he isn't

I've played with him as scum before and D_J in that game seemed more aloof and stilted and careful with his words, here he is more personable and less stressed about the game

this was also my initial read, but the fact that him and his predecessor hasn't contribute much.. makes me doubt. seems like scum is hiding somewhere in the midst of lurkers/replacements.

[Ztife]

TOWN
Mr Bump

Ditto.

Red Dragon

Ditto.

RadiantCowbells

Made a great point about Bacde that I hadn't considered myself. Contributing well to the game also.

Ztife

Dislike the whole "voting someone I believe is Town", other than that, good play recently.

Secret Agent Sloth

Ditto.

don_johnson

His response to pressure wasn't bad, and at least I can agree with Bacde on his playstyle!

Ankamius

Pro-town post made, needs to do more to erase my scum read on qwints.

penguin_alien

Still too inactive, and hanging on the fence a bit too much.

Om of the Nom

Still a mixed bag, his vote reason on me is a little strange, and shaky defence earlier still stands. Not significantly scummy though.

evilpacman18

He's pretty much refused to contribute for the rest of the day. Very pro-town!

Bacde

You know my case against him.

Cheery Dog

You know my case against him.

SCUM

I have a good feeling that Cheery and Bacde are buddies.

I'll see if I can get a few more townreads from their interactions.

Underlined looks like so much crap, if you flip scum I'm definitely pushing a RC wagon tomorrow lol.

[Ztife]

I assume you mean post #533 is "starting to contribute" to the game where I see nothing but a scum attempting to look like he actually cares about hunting scum. Its pathetic really.

[Ztife]

Which other potential wagons does it seems like there is to you? Who are your scum reads? What's your true read on feg then?

The ones that have more than 2 or more votes on them without my vote That would be: dj, feg, bcade. Of those three feg is the most scummy. My read on feg is null. Bcade doesn't read scum to me, but he doesn't read that townie either. DJ is just a meh lynch. feg is both more scummy than dj and would give us more info.

As for my scum reads, read the game better please.

Are you sheeping?
That didn't answer anything. Basically you're saying all 3 major wagons to you are all null reads, with no efforts to push your scum reads whatsoever.
How's feg more scummy than bacde? In what way feg looks scum to you?

Cheery Dog, does fegelein giving his reasons on his list change your mind on him? Because with all the time you spent on him early in the game, I would have expected to see a more...complete case on him for your vote.

I'm lazy with case making, can't you see that by the fact I just linked his ISO?
My vote on him is staying until the end of today, the reasons and other stuff he posted with them doesn't make them any more town.

@Ankamius, I don't know what the point on chillkid in #76 is, seeing as I can't find me having one on him in that post.

#90 was trying to get something out of cowbells so he actually defends. I don't remember the actual case, but since some of it had to do with not having an avatar (chillkid), there was no reason that cowbells should have been admitting defeat.

Blatant sheeping.
Nope, I don't see scum motivations and therefore Im asking you to point it out to me.

Points out that post 36 by feg is scummy in the way it is trying to draw attention to #32

Spends next 5 posts or so claiming that that post is unnecessary and therefore scummy.

post 206 mentions that "head isn't in this game"

post 224 votes for chillkid

post 468 Asks feg for his reasons for making his list, says that having no reason is scummy.

post 493 Hops on feg wagon

Why is feg scummy again? Also he has already gave his comments about his list, what do you think of them?
All I can sum up is you arguing why post #36 and #430 is scummy, refusing to elaborate because "your lazy to make a case". just posting his iso and telling me its scummy, and pushing a wagon near deadline knowing that it would probably end up in a lynch and trying to get away with a sheeping vote.

If anything, its opportunistic. I fail to see how feg is being scummy, and your iso doesn't point it out to me either, so would you be nice enough to fill me in where feg's scum tells are?

[Ztife]

I have to disagree with you there, although it might have to do with the fact I personally found the acceptance of the lynch thing to be more of a Town tell, considering I found it natural.

"Natural" is ambiguous, natural for town or scum?
If im town, I would make my aggressors and people on my wagon explain their votes because even if I'm lynched rest of town can deconstruct their arguments and find scum.
Being defeatist is anti-town, what's stopping scum from jumping on the wagon? And he wasn't even close to being lynched too. Its more like "I can't argue back because I have no logic train of thought in my votes/posts, I can't explain them back logically, therefore I just display a defeatist attitute and look like I'm being picked on over nothing".

All I asked is why he voted saying that he will retract his vote before a lynch happens. And he couldn't put up a consistant reason for it.

[Ztife]

5 hours and it looks like we're gonna have an NL.

Unvote, Vote: Cherry Dog

[Ztife]

Having my papers, VLA for 2 days.

[Ztife]

Forgot to bold it

V/LA 2 days

[Ztife]

Gonna do a quick/brief reply here, I'll inforce my statements if need be in 2 days.

@Reddragon
Post 618 peaks my attention in particular.

Why cherry dog?
Cherry dog was a

sheep

. At post 539 I asked for his voting reasons, which he failed to elaborate as I has pointed out in post 561. In the essence of it at that point cherry dog was not doing much of scum hunting, or anything in particular actually. The convenient sheeping on feg's wagon was a good example of how scums jump on a wagon without a good case near deadline. Did he convince me that he thought feg was scummy? No. Did he feel like he wants to talk about it? No.

Its easy to crap out statements like "there must be a scum on the mislynch wagon" when we're not actually looking at the scum hunting.
While we can argue about whether cherry dog seems scummy or not at that point, you must agree that I was one of the first few players who actually mentioned and draw attention to him. The only reason I didn't vote for him then its because I was still pushing for a YOLO lynch whom I think was actual scum then (re-reads needed from D1 N1 results which I've yet to do).

Feg was not a strong lynch as I had mentioned, and at the 4/4 feg/cherry point it seems that a cherry lynch was more likely, because most people voting for feg was in it to prevent a NL (or so I assumed). That includes you, which..

#549 you mentioned that feg is null, or nullish or whatever. But suddenly he jumped to scummy in your recent post.

That inconsistancy is glaring at me.

You also voted for him without any strong explainations.

If feg was scum, then your theory might hold strong and you might have found the scum team. But what the fuck are you going to do if feg flips town? What do you think happened between the feg/CD wagon in D1? Have you considered the possibility that feg and cherry are both town? It would have been easy for scums to sit back and do nothing, because either way it would have landed a mislynch. With this point in mind its easy to see why it is also possible that the scum team would not want to push any of the wagons.

And therefore the key here in your theory is why feg is scummy.

Points about om is strong, especially the contradictory switch of votes. Will look into it when im back.

YOLO/evil slot is bad, needs more probing probably.

Also SAS and DJ is virtually almost unreadable to me.

[Ztife]

Vote: Red Dragon

[Ztife]

Oh yeah, and I'd also like to note that RD's only non-situational attacks on me are that I used self-meta

My response: 100% yes. I need nothing else at this point. I do not thin k it is productive to argue back and forth with walls after walls... it is counter productive. Suffice to say that I did read your posts, and I am still convinced that you have a higher probability of being scum than town.

Om brings up a good point; it seems highly unlikely that all three scum are on the wagon, and why are we assuming three? Is it standard for 12P?

P-EDIT: OMGUS AHAHAHAHA

I do agree with this. However, at this point it would be extremely foolish to assume that there wasn't scum on the wagon. Also, I noted that OM mguses everyone.

@zitfe, to a certain extent you are correct. My read on you is most certainly the weakest of the three. It is also

extremly

dependent on feg being scum. I am willing to admit that. And that is why You see my vote where it is. Currently, I wouild not advocate pushing your lynch over feg or om for this very reason. However, it seems odd that you KNOW what feg will flip.

P-EDIT: OMGUS AHAHAHAHA

It's so easy to sum up any attack directed at someone who attacked you as an OMGUS. But please, tell me why you decided to jump to that conclusion instead of actually asking for further information?

Also this game is 13P, so 3 scum is pretty likely to be the case.

Because every single post you make is omgus??? I mean, it is sorta hard to ignore at this point.

You have yet to point how your view of feg changed from nullish to scummy from D1 to D2, which makes your whole point dubious since you also admitted that your reads is largely based on feg being scum.

Just back, gonna catch up abit more later.

[Ztife]

4 pages in 4 days? Really? Guys.

@RedDragon

post 664

Read the game?
All I see is an opportunist.

Assuming that even if we had all 3 scums on cherry's wagon, the majority of the votes still had to belong to town in order to have a CD lynch. The fact that feg "led" a wagon? Lets get a couple of things straight over here.

Anybody who is getting lynched should be trying to get someone else. That's normal behaviour, unless we're talking about some sort of gambit. Town does that, scum does that. Having a crapass defeatist attitute like RC did in the first few couple of pages only serves to show how anti-town that is. Even if you are getting lynched, you generate discussions for scums to flip on consistancy. Therefore the fact that Feg has voted on someone else before his wagon died is WIFOM on his alignment.

That replacing out is a crap move, not too sure what I think about that.

I could be sold if you could actually come up with a proper case. The idea of an NL would have been ideal for scum as well. The fact that scums would wanna derail feg's wagon and also risk exposure voting for CD just seems farfetched to me. I should probably read and comment alot more about the wagon on CD, but the fact that it was close to deadline makes the cases weak. We have to choose between 2 reads evens if we think they are weak just to prevent an NL, town is as likely to have weak votes as scums. Not to mention that a couple of them are replacements who probably haven't really read the game thoroughly.

@DJ

post 669
What's your scum-read on feg? Seeing as you have to change your playstyle D2, what do you think of the passive-play of this game? We could sure use a couple of pressure voting, what do you think of lurkers like RC SAS and evil? Also, specifically your reads on me and om.

@RCowbells

post 652
Why would you not explain your reads and case? Are you a lazy town or an a lurking scum?

@SAS

post 656
Why feg? Who are your common top scum reads?

@om

Who are your top scum reads apart from feg? I'll be willing to go with a rc/rd/evil wagon now.

[Ztife]

So I voted for cherry because I thought he was scum, but instead im defending feg?
And now I'm asking you what exactly you find feg scummy for, which Im asking you to elaborate, but now im defending him?

Nice try manipulating my words and avoiding your inconsistency there scum.

@Bump
So basically RD's case on feg is,
1. Feg voting for CD when he's about to get lynched,
2. CD wagon formed fast, and he flipped as town, therefore there's 3 scums on CD's wagon presumably me and om.

So you think its a good case? post 631

[Ztife]

@Bump
So basically RD's case on feg is,
1. Feg voting for CD when he's about to get lynched,
2. CD wagon formed fast, and he flipped as town, therefore there's 3 scums on CD's wagon presumably me and om.

So you think its a good case? post 631

I find his entire reaction to Day Two scummy as hell. I'm still not seeing scum Day One, but his very first post and his other ones seem so uncomfortable.

Scummy? Your mention that his "wall" was good.

@om
YOLO was bad, and his slot is basically lurking and not doing anything. Lets go for it.

Unvote, Vote: evilpackman18

[Ztife]

So wheres your vote bump?

[Ztife]

keep in mind zitfe that the cheery wagon changed my read on feg. Day 2 is different than d1. And yes, by blatantly derailing a wagon you are defending a person.

blatantly derailing a wagon?

We hardly had a wagon D1, and there was hardly any case or discussion around.
Case on feg was weak, even you agreed to it yourself. Most people voting for feg was trying to go for an easy lynch or prevent an NL.

How exactly did the cherry wagon change your read on feg? You have failed to explain this repeatedly. What im trying to tell you is, your case is bad, not only you did not try to reinforce your case but your insisting on your sub-par scum hunting which fails to show any logic. You are also giving players like DJ with and RC with no proper explaination about their votes or whatsoever to get away with sheeping votes on Feg. Lynch him because he didn't get lynch D1? What a bunch of crap logic.

And just to show how wifom your logic is, if CD flipped scum does it mean that feg is town? No.

Your dissection of CD's wagon, think about how scum could be lying the midst of lurkers like SAS, evil, akam, they practically have almost little to nothing in the posts. If we lynch feg now, IF he had turns out to be town, we'll be left with nothing to start D3 with. Your gambit that all 3 scum would be on CD's wagon is misleading, the lack of wagoning in D1 shows that scums are just lying around and letting town rot by itself at the rate we're going. There issin't even any pressure for the lurkers to stop lurking. If you have town interest in mind, make a better case and convince people to start voting for feg. Otherwise, take a look at the lurkers and start pressure voting. IIRC you mentioned that YOLO slot was scummy, and evil did practically nothing after he replaced. This is a good place to start getting more out of the un-noticed players. players.

[Ztife]

With this level of activity, no need to waste too much time. The hammer is imminent.

Unvote, Vote: Mathdino

[Ztife]

@Penguin_alien
Doesn't matter, I'll shoot you tonight if someone else gets lynched.

Who did you shoot D1?

[Ztife]

Bacde. So either the mafia and I shot the same target, the mafia killing role was role blocked, or the mafia target was protected somehow.

Then why did you claim?

13P having three scum and a kill role elsewhere seems unlikely to me. Radiant's play kinda shouts SK, though.

RD's reaction was so bad holy crap.

Single-minded lynch, penguin, gotcha. I explained my logic all day yesterday anyway. We couldn't have a replacement in that slot. I wanna say this makes Om Scum look likely, as he was pushing Feg hard and somewhat distanced himself from SAS, but I'm not sure. Bacde/Feg still reads Town vs Town, so I don't have much more to say about that.

Having trouble getting energy for this game all of a sudden. Not really sure why.

What are you talking about? Unlikely but SK?

[Ztife]

RC: you don't read Mr. Bump's recent posts as scumslip? it looks as though he is aware of the number of scum in this game. in my experience, a set-up with an sk usually is offset with a 2 person scum team. Mr. Bump seems to

know

that there are three mafia. just seems odd to me the way he is typing it out. of course, most of my experience is based on 12P games. but whatevz. i still need to read.

i'll

vote: mr. bump

for now.

Now you actually start playing. That looks like a slip to me too. #357 looks like its trying so hard to patch up all the inconsistancies.

RD's clearly town.

Ankamius is in need of ISO, I'll have to comment on him later.

@RC
Important question now is, why did you claim?

[Ztife]

13P having three scum and a kill role elsewhere seems unlikely to me. Radiant's play kinda shouts SK, though.

This actually implies that you think town has either 3 scums or the kill role is anti-town.

[Ztife]

Clap clap.

That is exactly what I think. Three scum and an SK is unlikely, so two scum and an SK makes more sense considering my read of Radiant SK at the time. Now I can kinda see three scum one Town Vig. How many more times do you want me to say it?

How many times do I expect you to slip? Not too soon again for sure.

How did I slip ytd?

[Ztife]

Vote, evilpacman

If he doesn't wants to be in this game, then he shouldn't be.

[Ztife]

I'm fine with a lynch on Bump or Jonson today, and I could probably be talked into other lynches if someone presents a good case.

Why did you claim again? I've been asking this.
How would we not know you are not an sk or scum?
What kind of town motivations would you have to be claiming at the start of D3 for what it seems to me with no apparant reasoning at all?

Also, why would you not be the one presenting the case? Are you looking for a quick wagon to get ur ass off responsibilities?

@DJ and Akin
Care to share your actual views on evilpacman? Why are we letting this guy lurk his ass off?

[Ztife]

well, waiting for the popcorn to happen

[Ztife]

I'm VT.

RC is just full of crap, I'll dissect 843 later after work, and DJ is definitely scum buddy if RC flips scum.

Vote: RadiantCowbells

[Ztife]

Typing on mobile, will try to keep this as detailed as I can.

Setup had to be vig/SK or multi-ball.

RC's play does not suggest he is vig at all. If he was he would have at least claimed instead of portraying a defeatist attitude (just lynch me)

Quick hammer and non-consistent play is just crap. How are u playing for town? Pushing for wagons with no good reason, and threatening to lynch people.

Even if we had a cop or tracker we can't tell if he is vig/sk or scum.
If we had a doc we can't tell if he had done the shots or not, and there's no way to tell if he did it as scum/SK/vig or whether he was the one who did it anyway. And scums can't tell us if they are the ones who did the shots instead of him. So that's a deadend as well.

If he's SK and probably has bulletproof (for playing this gambit), if we don't lynch him and he has another shot left it could end up as a 3 way whether we shoot scum or town today. (I'll write out the possible scenarios if needed later)

Therefore

whether you are scum or town

both sides need RC to be lynched today to win. The only reason you don't want to lynch RC today is because you know he's scum and you're his scum buddy *cough dj cough*

Therefore 4 of us bump penguin me and epm who's just lurking all the way have to vote to lynch RC because his buddy wouldn't. You can interchange DJ with whoever you think he's buddy is but the ending result is the same. In the other scenario where he is SK all of us would want to lynch him.

Again, on mobile so I'm not sure if I'm getting my point across.

[Ztife]

DJ why do you think penguin is trying to lynch RC? What has penguin said which you do not agree with

[Ztife]

Set-up speculation talk is mostly unhelpful IMHO, because even if we can generate the "most balance" possible setup, there still could be a chance that our setup is "unbalanced".

Discussing possibilities is more practical and we cover more room for error in scum hunting.

Regarding scenarios,

the key is RC's actual reason for claiming, and his timing for the claim

.

As Vig

, why would he want to claim start of D3? When he was in no danger of being lynched, no real reason to reveal his role and limits, no reason to give scum any more information other than slips. There was 8 players left with 1 scum date, town was in no danger of losing nor any visible disadvantage. And his reason is because he wants to draw the NK on him? He could have done this after a mass claim to help draw kills from other town PRs, more so since he has no lynch left. By claiming vig and having no shots left he obviously could only end up confusing town more if he survived N3. Vig? Not impossible, but not all that likely.

I would also stress that it is extremely important to note that RC's timing to claim is the major reason why he is unlikely to be vig. There are no real benefits to town, and possibly only detrimental effects. Also, DJ's point about town making scummy plays is WIFOM, townies can play anti-town. Scums can play town-like. It doesn't change anything, and

the focus is not on that but on his motivations to claim at start of D3

(which I have stressed repeatedly)

As SK

with bulletproof, fake claiming vig gives an advantage because scums cannot lynch him, and scums cannot reveal themselves to expose him (even if they did town might not buy it). It is also possible that he has another shot (he has only shot once so far, or has more than 2 shots). Now that we have 6 players, likely roles are
SK, 2x SCUM, 3x TOWN
1. Town lynches scum, scum NK town, D4 starts with SK, SCUM, TOWN, TOWN. If he convinces town to lynch scum he will NK town and win the game.
2. Town lynches town, scum NK town, D4 starts with SK, SCUM, SCUM, TOWN. In this scenario town will lose no matter what, SK might have a chance to win if he can get a NL.
If RC is indeed SK and we dont lynch him today

TOWN LOSES

whether the winner is scum or SK.

As scum

, this means that it is most likely a multi-ball and the remaining players are
3x scum, 3x town.
Possible D4 scenarios
3. Town lynches town, scums NK at least 1 town.

TOWN LOSES.

4. Town lynches town, scums CROSS KILL (based on probability ONLY this has a 17% chance of occurring), D5 starts with SCUM, TOWN, TOWN. Town has 33% chance of lynching scum, probability wise the total chance of winning in this scenario is 5.5% (of course, this is just probability only)

TOWN PROBABLY LOSES

5. Town lynches scum on SAS team, D5 will start with 2 scums and 2 town.
6. Town lynches scum on the other scum team, scums cross kill,

TOWN WINS.

7. Town lynches scum on the other scum team, NK 1 scum 1 town, D5 starts with SCUM, TOWN TOWN. As per scenario 2 town has 33% probability of winning.

TOWN PROBABLY LOSES

As you can see, depending on the setup and NK the any chance for town to win at all lies in lynching RC today. Otherwise we would surely lose. And even if you are scum (1 team or multi-ball SAS team) you will want RC lynched. The only reason you would not want RC to be lynched today is because you are his scum buddy, or you believe he's truly vig.

Also my personal opinions are that this is most likely a multi-ball, and we probably have a PR of doc. And if you are a doc its the best interest for town that you do not claim today and even claim at all. Also, why lynching RC is hard in the case of multi-ball its because it requires all 3 town to lynch RC, as well as the scum on SAS's team. Also, there's the problem of EPM notactively participating in the game at all, and he's either a disinterested town who would probably throw his votes around, or a hard to read scum. Either possibilities is just bad for us. RC just has to be lynched today.

[Ztife]

good deductions RC. i was thinking the same thing with penguins push to get you lynched. if you are vig, though, that means we have two scum left, so we should finish the mass claim before lynching anyone. you certainly aren't cleared at this point, but this is much more town oriented thought than your play yesterday. i'm fine skipping to ztife.

How was RC's deductions good? Elaborate which points.

i don't disagree with much of what penguin has said all game, but i don't like to let words get in the way of facts. fact is, townies can play anti-town. townies can quickhammer. townies can make poor cases. townies can threaten people and play "scummy". in a town without a single power role, ain't no way i'm lynching the claimed 2 shot vig. and no, town does not need to lynch the sk by any stretch of the imagination. if RC is sk, then there is most likely only one more scum. AS TOWN YOU NEVER LYNCH AN SK BEFORE SCUM. mafia 101. RC certainly isn't clear. but RC also certainly isn't mafia.

Town can play like scum, scum can play like town. This point is irrelevant. Scummy is scummy. If lurking is scummy then EPM is likely to be scum because he is lurking. If lurking is null then EPM's alignment is unknown. Now, what fact are you trying to tell us? That RC is scummy but you think that he is not scum?

Also, I have already mentioned why RC being SK will ruin us.

so i gues multi-ball= multiple scum teams?

um. the quickhammer was bad and incredibly anti-town. not sure what this "about-face" talk is. ztife claimed vanilla. i am vanilla. therefore RC is the ONLY claimed PR. that and the fact that his claim is two shot add weight to the idea he is actually town. so regardless of his anti-town play(PR's often play anti-town to avoid being nk'd anyway) he is, in fact, most likely town. which means we have two scum left. the claimed vig is the closest thing to a confirmed townie that we have, so lynching him is great idea for scum team, but in reality scum just needs to get a townie lynched to most likely win this game as we are then in a mylo situation.

so no, penguin may be town after all, because this power tandem of ztife/bump is a bit ridiculous.

my interpretation of penguins posting is what it is, if you'll notice i placed bump in the middle of the list. claiming first is way easier for scum. so not sure what thats all about. as town, i do not fear an sk.

zife: you mentioned some scenarios. please list them. if i am wrong i am more than happy to listen, but i just don't think town is going to be all vanilla here. and someon brought up a good point about the number of kills suggesting this is not "multi-ball". so yeah.

You're MYLO situation requires a few factors to be accounted for.
That vig and scum both targetted bacde N1. That itself, while possible, is quite unlikely.
It assumes that no town PR fake claimed.
It disregards RC's ridiculous play all game, include the reason as to why he even claimed vig.

And you are right, claming first is easier for scum. Thus RC did it a whole day earlier than us =)

[Ztife]

@bump

Read it, I have mentioned any chance of town winning lies in getting RC lynched unless you believe he is vig.

[Ztife]

because your post is incoherent.
your posts are inconsistant, and you repeatedly can't explain your claim.

still can't reveal your reasons for claiming? must be some secret master plan, scum.

also, everyone has claimed, maybe you should give a good read before slipping anymore.

[Ztife]

Here's something you should ask yourself.

Do you really believe that there would be a 2 mafia 1 sk 10 vt setup?
Do you really believe that the mod is sitting behind his computer going ROFL I JUST TROLLED THEM WITH THIS MOUNTAINOUS SETUP SO HARD ROFL THEY SOO MAD LOL GET DUNKED NOOBLORDS.

Or do you believe that I am just a person who on D1 got peeved because he had just been lynched D1 in N1350, and who believes that reads should always be fluid.

Further, if I was trying to wrap town around my finger, would I have explicitly stated that was what I wanted?

Also, I just noticed that DJ didn't claim cop like I expected him to, and without him being cop, I question why he is so confident in my being a two shot vigilante. I would appreciate more information from him on why he is buddying me so hard.

Do you really believe that town PR can't fake claim VT?
And yes, reads are meant to be fluid, but as much as I want to read you otherwise everything just leads one way.
And no, you are trying to manipulate town, that's why you can't explain your claim and justify it because you can't reveal your real motives.

I claimed because I didn't want people to think I was a serial killer, and I claimed vig instead of 2-shot vig so that I would be killed and there would be no doubt in anyone's mind that I wasn't a serial killer after the flip.

You claimed because you didn't want people to think you are SK? Why would people think you are an SK at the start of D2?
Also, you claimed so you would be killed? So people can see you are town? What good are you dead whether you are sk or vig? Lol. Nice try.

[Ztife]

start of D3*

[Ztife]

Oh well, someone has to be d1 lynch.

This is what you had to reply then. This is what you have to reply now. Interesting issin't it?

I didn't know you were able to attempt to scum hunt, let alone wall of texts. That said, you painful OMGUS wall of crap just hurts my eyes.

[Ztife]

@DJ
Stop trying to mislead. Your replies are full of 1 sided logic. Tedious long walls of texts, I'll put a summary for those tl:dr and why its important to lynch RC today.

i disagree. RC claim was before a lylo situation. granted you can make an argument for it both ways, but by pretending to be full vig instead of two shot was a nice way to draw the nk. still, if he is sk, there is no reason to lynch him at this point in time if we believe there may be two scum left.

the number of kills also suggests he is who he says he is

. unless scum wants to claim that they tried to shoot him and failed. there is no claimed protective role.

Number of kills does not support that he is vig. N1 and N3 has 1 kill, only N2 has 2 kills.
Chances of aiming bacde as scum 1/9 (3 scums + 1 dead + 9 targets)
Chances of aiming bacde as vig 1/12 (1 vig + 1 dead + 11 targets)

The chances of both scum and vig aiming bacde for N1 is actually less than

1%

. I don't remember bacde's play as being overly popular for a N1 kill. Since your theory of RC being vig seems to rely heavily on the fact there is only 1 town PR, there is no doc protect.

Therefore, the number of kills suggests that it is likely RC is SK who might have shots left, or we have a unclaimed doc and he is scum. Probability wise in terms of kills, there's a 1% chance that RC was vig (1% chance that he and scum killed the same target)

As SK

with bulletproof, fake claiming vig gives an advantage because scums cannot lynch him, and scums cannot reveal themselves to expose him (even if they did town might not buy it). It is also possible that he has another shot (he has only shot once so far, or has more than 2 shots). Now that we have 6 players, likely roles are
SK, 2x SCUM, 3x TOWN
1. Town lynches scum, scum NK town, D4 starts with SK, SCUM, TOWN, TOWN. If he convinces town to lynch scum he will NK town and win the game.

town still has a chance. this is fear mongering.

In this case, if we lynch SK, scum NKs town and town loses.
If we lynch scum, we need to count on the fact that SK has no shots left for town to win.

We have to lynch 2 scums in a row and hope that SK has no more shots left, and then lynch the SK. Only in this way we can win.

Fear mongering? Nope, Im just stating the possible scenarios and facts. I have also said that I believe SK has another shot (or more) and therefore this scenario guarantees a town loss.

two nights with only one kill does not suggest multi-ball. especially with an all vanilla town. this is the least likely scenario imo. town has already lost. so i will not explore this option.

You can believe that vig/scum targetted the same player but not in a multi-ball? How strange.

This furthur proves that your posting is biased in favour to RC. If RC was scum (and that we have an unclaimed doc) or SK then the night kills would make so much more sense and is so much more likely. Scums/SK could have choosen not to make the kill (since if RC is vig and he has no reason to lie about his actions) or got their kills blocked/protected. This scenario is highly probable.


Also, your WIFOM discussion is precisely the thing that im taking out of context here.

You can believe that RC controversial claim is pro-town and therefore he must be truly vig, yet you cannot believe that all his scummy play makes him scum/sk.

Yes, RC is scummy, and his claim helps him to win if he is SK/scum. That's all we are focused on. Therefore we must lynch him.

"But he could be vig and playing really bad!" "Lets flip a coin and decide!" "How about we just lynch someone else instead since its WIFOM and we can't decide?" Nope, we're not doing that today.

^^ HORSESHIT. lynching RC guarantees town a loss in EVERY SCENARIO.

Nope. Lynching RC gives town a loss only if he is vig. And conveniently you have decided that since drawing the NK makes sense(but claiming to help him win as SK/SCUM doesn't make sense?!) THEREFORE RC MUST BE VIG LETS IGNORE EVERY OTHER POSSIBILITY.


Lastly, at this point im pretty sure you are scum. My last game with you you seem to be alot more logical and careful in the way you make your assumptions. Over here you have basically lurked much of D1 and D2, and your real active scum hunting begins late D3 and mostly today. You have also insist on RC being vig despite being presented options which you have not been able to disprove. If you are playing as town I would have expected you to make me elaborate my scenarios more, and question RC more on his credibility of being a vig. Instead, its all one-sided.
If you are RC's buddy you're most likely to win if we dont lynch RC today, therefore you will do all you can to prevent bump+penguin+me+epm from trying to lynch RC. All you need is just to sway 1 player. If you are on the opposing scum team or RC is SK, you are probably doing all this and lynching RC in the end to score town points.

Im pretty confident that penguin is town at this point, and I cannot decide between bump or epm for the last townie. It will be dependent if RC is SK or scum and I would have to re-read. Obviously im town. There's your three.

Also, keep in mind that I have no 100% way of winning. I don't know the setup. I don't know if we have un-claimed doc or roleblocker or whatsoever. But there's still a chance to win.

If RC is SK and we don't lynch him, we lose. If RC is scum and we don't lynch him (or another other scum) we lose. (MIGHT still win if we count on scums cross killing, getting protected or kills blocked etc. if we get super lucky)

Unless you believe RC is VIG AND this setup is 2-shot vig 3 scum 8 VTS, or you are his scum buddy =)

[Ztife]

If there's a cop out there with a result on anyone who isn't dead and they didn't speak up...sorry, but I totally fault them.

We have to lynch 2 scums in a row and hope that SK has no more shots left, and then lynch the SK. Only in this way we can win. Fear mongering? Nope, Im just stating the possible scenarios and facts. I have also said that I believe SK has another shot (or more) and therefore this scenario guarantees a town loss.

...I've never heard of an SK with a limited number of shots. That scenario also involves the SK being willing to help town lynch scum in that limited shots case at town-town-Mafia-SK, and town doesn't want to lynch then anyways, as SK should/could have shots. I do agree on the odds of the SK and Mafia picking the same person. It's not as bad as all that, since some targets, like Fegelein and some lower activity people were probably right out, but it's not great odds.

Meh, I'd also expect that if we have a doc who protected someone still alive now Night One, we'd have heard about it. Same if a RB is here and has a target they hit Night One.

And that's why I said its not likely that SK has limited shots, and that's why town will probably lose.

Also, a doc or rb has no way of knowing if they were successful, so claiming isn't going to be too useful here. If we can get another successful rb/protect (assuming we have one) tonight it will swing the odds greatly into town's favour.

[Ztife]

ztife. your post is full of holes. you don't even seem to acknowledge what i am saying. you just keep ratling on about "dj thinks RC is vig." that is entirely untrue.

dj thinks RC is vig OR sk. dj just doesn't believe that RC is scum. RC as scum makes no sense. because not only would RC scum have to have an additional kill of some sort, but RC scum would have to be bulletproof(otherwise his claim would be a death sentence or hugely ballsy gambit). so how does that balance out with an ALL VANILLA town and another scum team? it just doesn't. you also seem to be comparing something RC said on day 1 with his recent case against you. that's apples and oranges.

vote: ztife

you are putting up a good fight, criticizing me for posting walls of text while you do the exact same thing. but your math doesn't add up. if scum/vig had a 1%chance of hitting the same target on night 1, then the chance of them hitting the same target on 2 nights is even lower. where do you even get your math?

fact is this: we cannot afford a mislynch. lynching scum leaves us with a better chance of winning than lynching an sk.

so i am not voting the guy who is EITHER vig or sk. regardless of his play. i would rather lynch the guy who is asking town to PRAY that a pr is hidden AND that we are in a multi-ball set-up with powered scum and that those two scum teams shared targets two nights out of three OR our doc had two successful protects, but is unwilling to claim.

Well, lets go about this another way.

Do you agree that there is a 1% (or extremely low) chance that RC is vig due to N1 result?
Do you agree that if RC is SK, chance for town to win is also extremely low if he is allowed to live?

Also tell me, if i'm scum why would I push so hard for RC to be lynched today? Why would I not wait for an opportune moment with my "scum buddy" since we only need 2 more townie votes to win?

[Ztife]

Do you agree that there is a 1% (or extremely low) chance that RC is vig due to N1 result?
Do you agree that if RC is SK, chance for town to win is also extremely low if he is allowed to live?

Please answer this DJ. After all that shit you posted and trying to avoid direct questions, please tell me how you do not agree that RC is likely SK and we are likely to lose if we don't lynch him.

Also, im up for a DJ lynch as well since im sure he's scum. If that's the case we better hope this is 2scum + SK game because anymore scums than that would be just incredibly unbalanced.

[Ztife]

@DJ
RC's scummy plays are WIFOM. Probability is "gambler fallacy". When you wanna think of a player in a certain way, things couldn't be more obvious. Unfortunately I have no sure 100% way of telling who's role is which and there will always be something to argue about. Its interesting how you keep holding on the mini odds.

Also, setup speculations are generally bad, but since mr don_johnson wants to discuss it.

Possible setups with anti-town factios: (keep in mind SAS is dead)
SK + 2x scum.
If its this setup lynching SK or scum does not make a difference.

SK + 3 scum.
This means that its now 3 townies and 3 anti-factions, chances of town winning is just fucking slim. Lynch SK and scum wins. Lynch scum and SK wins.

2scums + 2scums (multi-ball)
This is also a likely scenario. This is the best scenario for town because it will mean a cross kill is possible and its in town's interest that there is at least a cross kill at night. Assuming there is no doc, if we lynch RC (scum) in this case, scums would have to choose between letting the other scum team win or letting town win.

Therefore, knowing RC's flip is vital. Scums wants SK lynched that's correct, but town wants SK lynched too in any possible setup. If the setup is in anyway balanced (which we still have a town PR) OR it its the SK + 2scum setup, town still stands a good chance of winning.

vote: RadiantCowbells

Pretty sure SK lynch is best option today and no lynch tomorrow, scum will be forced to make a game-changing NK on both nights, by endgame it'll be clearer, I think.

Explain this NL and game-changing NK that you are talking about. Are you the SAS's partner? Seems like you know its a multi-ball setup and you are expecting a crosskill.

As much as I want to lynch DJ, this hearkens back to Srand in 1347.

Which is to say, that the mafia know as well as everyone else does that I look scum, but sometimes town see other town.

Following that logic, I have to say that DJ is town, as much as he doesn't look it. Further, no one believes that I'm town.

All I have to say is that if DJ flips town and we have a doctor, doc ANYONE BUT Ztife. Roleblocker, hit Ztife up.

Even if I'm SK, this is good advice, because there would be no reason for me to not target mafia, so please do it.

Despite avoiding all the setup discussions with your "traitor" crap your last 2 sentences actually implies that you heavily think that it that we have a doc or rb. Did you fail your shots N1 or N3 or both?
Also, it seems like you are trying to manipulate town PR into helping you, possibly because because I've hit the spot with your SK or multi-ball speculations and you need to silence me tonight. If you don't get lynched im sure you will aim me. Or maybe your scum buddy. EIther way good job with the OMGUS statement, you just crack easily under pressure and just scum slipped all over yourself, right from D1.

[Ztife]

edit, meant to say multi-ball is a better scenario compared to SK+3scums.

[Ztife]

Possible setups with anti-town factios: (keep in mind SAS is dead)
SK + 2x scum.
If its this setup lynching SK or scum does not make a difference.

no. it doesn't. but we don't know that there is one scum. we also don't know if sk is actually vig. so i agree that IF THIS IS the set-up, then it doesn't matter, but the nature of the unknowns here make me think it is better to lynch scum.

There's no unknown. W're discussing all the possibilities so we are covering everything. Over here it makes no difference, and we're more sure of who SK is anyway.

SK + 3 scum.
This means that its now 3 townies and 3 anti-factions, chances of town winning is just fucking slim. Lynch SK and scum wins. Lynch scum and SK wins.

this is incorrect. HUGELY incorrect. if we lynch scum, sk and final scum can crosskill, or one kill can fail(due to possible bp/doc protect) and town can still end up in a 3p or 4p lylo/mylo with chance to win. chances are waaayyyyy better for town in this instance if we lynch scum. game is fucking over if we lynch sk. this a main crux of my argument that you seem to continually gloss over.

Are you for real? If this setup is true SK is not going to NK scum N4, because 3 flipped scum means D5 SK is the one who gets lynched. It is in the best interest of both faction not to cross kill should they want to win. Not to mention the possibility of this setup being so inbalanced is probably not happening and also whether the SK has BP.

This is the main crux of your argument so far is

RC is vig,
which is low chance because it means that vig and scum NKed same target N1.

and RC is SK, with these conditions

1. SK has no BP (used up or has none)
2. Sk has no shots left (or basically, its a useless SK with no abilities trying to win a game in this cold hard world)
3. Its a 3-scum 1-sk setup

These conditions have to be true for SK to not be lynched today, and you continuously argue your point over these improbable odds where it possibility of it happening is low.

Fact is, we have 6 townies dead, and the game now is currently AT BEST 4 townie/2anti-town. It could be worse. We have found the SK/possibly scum and if we want to let RC survive another day, im not sure wtf town is thinking if we want to win. Its gonna take all 4 town to have to lynch the SK, and 3town 1 scum to lynch if its a multi-ball. All dj/rc have to do is to prevent being lynched and either of them will win the game.

[Ztife]

Btw, the first 3 days lynches are mostly BS.

Cherry Dog and Feg are both town, so its likely that scums could be on either wagon. Wagon reads would be weak.
Bacde NK is most likely to point towards a Feg quick lynch on D2.
SAS NK is strange, since at that point the game was still mostly full of lurkers, which incidentally happens to be EPM, penguin, rc and DJ.
Ankamius NK is also strange, considering that he has no strong pushes.

It would seem to be weird as well that SK would wanna target scum. SAS NK remains to be explained by our resident SK.

My current reads would be RC+DJ scum buddy, as well as possibly EPM as SAS buddy in a multi-ball setup.

As for 2nd lynches, I will be willing to lynch DJ as well. But priority remains RC simply because the flip of SK or SCUM is most important.

BTW, if this is a multi-ball and SAS's buddy is lynched, then town loses. RC's flip is too important at this point.

[Ztife]

@DJ
Gonna try avoiding walls of texts because we're just going round and round. Of course, I'll elaborate to anybody else, but DJ just seem to like going in circles.

Not all kill roles are the same because of limited shots and intent. Vig RC won't lie. SK RC can lie, scum RC can lie. SK saving shots, scums not shooting, RB/doc is more likely than hitting shooting the same target.
Therefore, VIG RC is unlikely. Therefore, MULTI-BALL is alot more likely.

What I think happen?
N1 RC scum team got his shot blocked. Therefore they know there's a doc or RB.
D3 RC claims vig. This could give him a possible doc protection on N3. This is why it makes sense to claim. Either he got protected, or they didn't shoot to gambit D4.

I never believed they shot the same target. I always believe scum/sk saving shots or town PR. Also I've mostly believe its a multi-ball setup, I only used SK to explain that even if its an SK setup its still beneficial to lynch RC first. You can see this in 888, 862, 891 and a couple of my other posts probably imply this as well.

As for SK RC i've already been through this. I've said that if RC is SK, town would probably lose already, unless its SK+2scums setup. 934, 888, 862

Here's what you are telling us.
You don't want to lynch VIG RC (somehow somewhere this still seems likely to u)
You don't want to lynch SK RC (because you believe somehow, it can be 3scums + SK)

By willing to risk lynching another scum,
You are willing to take the chance of multi-ball, where we will instantly loose if we hit SAS partner (2 scums, 3 towns for tonight)
You are willing to believe in cross-killing and/or that our SK has no abilities left.

ztife: you are basically saying that our only hope is to lynch RC, pray that he is mafia and not sk or vig, then hope that scum

crosskill

. do i have that right? it seems like an awfully faith based shot in the dark type way to play this game.

bump: do you agree with this analysis, that we are in a multi-ball set up, we have a doc in hiding and that our only hope is to lynch RC? and that hope depends ENTIRELY on a

scum crosskill

? wait, i guess one scum could misfire giving town a lylo against final scum. in that case, though, is that really even possible? IF this is multi-ball, don't you think scum would be completely aware of each other by now?

this is incorrect. HUGELY incorrect. if we lynch scum, sk and final scum can

crosskill

, or one kill can fail(due to possible bp/doc protect) and town can still end up in a 3p or 4p lylo/mylo with chance to win. chances are waaayyyyy better for town in this instance if we lynch scum. game is fucking over if we lynch sk. this a main crux of my argument that you seem to continually gloss over.

In essence, you believe 3scum + sk and vig RC is more likely than multi-ball and cross killing to win (which I have explained that it is improbable and not gonna happen), therefore you are trying to aim for scum. So do you believe in cross-killing, or not?

Also, I believe EPM to be SAS's partner, but if its a 2scum/2scum multi-ball and we shoot him, or he's a townie then we're fucked.

Multi-ball 2scums + 2scums + 1 town PR makes balance sense. 3scums + SK will probably require 2 or more PR to be balanced. Again, setup speculations are not much help, and the SK needs to die.

[Ztife]

It would seem to be weird as well that SK would wanna target scum. SAS NK remains to be explained by our resident SK.

^^ shooting yourself in the foot here. this actually points more towards RC sk than RCscum. if you think it would be wierd that an sk would target scum, and the alleged sk can't explain why he shot the guy, then it would imply that the alleged sk didn't mean to shoot scum. but whatevz. your obvscum at this point imo.

penguin: you gotta get bump on board. he won't listen to me as far as i can tell.

The other scum team opposite of SAS's would want to shoot SAS's team, no? Not sure how your logic flows here that I think RC is SK and that it makes me obvscum. Please, your every attempt to make people look scummy is just pathetic. You have repeatedly try to draw attention away from RC while trying to make everyone else looks scummy. You will just jump on any wagon possible the way I see it.

[Ztife]

Again with the misquotes and role fishing.

You keep saying that RC could be vig because he's the only claim despite being proved that odds are low.
You keep saying that if we kill SK, town loses because it could be a 3scum + SK setup, which is low chance. In a SK + 2 scum scenario, we need RC lynched, but you would rather risk a mislynch and possible end game odds with a multi-ball setup.
You keep insisting there's no PR when no one claim, yet a player of your experience refuse to believe that there could be unclaimed PR.

why would the pr not have claimed?

All we have are setup speculations. Would a doc claim help with anything? Sure, it makes the setup more "balanced", but end of the day its still speculation. Would a doc knows if he did a successful protect? Even if we have a claim doc, does it means we automatically know the setup? Does a claim doc automatically means we have a multi-ball? It doesn't, and at this point we need our doc to stay hidden for our odds of winning to increase. Its bizarre how you totally eliminate this explanation and choose to stick to your vig/3scum+sk theory. Incidentally you were the one who pushed the mass claim.

If we lynch RC and he's SK, our odds of winning increase because we dont have to risk 2 NKs.

we may just need to lynch you and then the impotent sk.

There's no reason for scum to want to lynch an impotent SK.

I have explained why town PR should not claim and why this could still potentially be a multi-ball. Im townie, therefore I know we don't have much room for error today and we need to have the SK lynched. In the most likely scenario that this is multi-ball or a 2scum+sk setup we will need SK lynch today, because this could potentially snuff out one more kill tonight.

A town PR, single target NK from 2 factions, or either mafia not killing/messing up/gambit. All it takes is 1 for setup speculations to be balanced.

Unfortunately you don't see this, you seem to keep harping on the fact that this is 3scum+sk or RC is vig, and additionally there is no town PR, which is just hilarious. Your adamant attitude in defending RC and finding "scum" by repeatedly attacking my words from different angles just suggests that this is a multi-ball and you need to lynch the last scum to win.

I could keep explaining this to you, but you always seem to choose to stick to the bizarre odds. You are right, because there is no 100% way of determining roles and there is always a small catch in any theory. But over here we are trying to stick to the bigger odds and give ourselves the best chance to win the game, but your mind is already set to the point of defending RC ridiculously. This implies heavily to me that you are scum buddies with RC.

I could make a case from previous days about DJ, but quite frankly im too lazy to ATM. As I have said repeatedly RC's flip is key to determining the setup and finding the remaining scum and as much as possible, im opposed keeping SK alive because there could be 2 NKs, and im opposed to lynching SAS's partner in terms of multi-ball. Thus EPM (my highest suspect) will be safe for today. As paradoxical as it may sound, lynching SK gives us the highest chance of winning, UNLESS YOU STILL BELIEVE THAT ITS 3SCUM + SK OR RC IS A VIG.

[Ztife]

you're my highest suspect for sas partner, not sure how you misrep that.

If you think im absolute scum, put your weight in your words and vote for me then. Because eitherway we need all 4 of us to get RC or we lose. Simple as that.

[Ztife]

We're not gonna win with a stupid town in our hands. Good job bringing EPM to the last day, scums deserve this win.

[Ztife]

whatevz. most likely scenario we all seem to agree on is 1 scum, 1 sk, 4 townies. if that is the case, then ztife is the scum. because ONLY the scum needs the sk lynched TODAY. i don't get how you don't see that. the possibility that there could be two scum left is why you lynch scum over sk in this situation, with the possibility of sk being vig adding to the weight of that decision.

its pretty standard shit. you NEVER lynch the sk in this situation. you go for scum, especially when they make themselves obvious by trying to twist logic and convince everyone that the sk NEEDS to be lynched. only scum NEEDS that.

no, RC did not unvote, which certainly leans towards sk play. but it is irrelevant as i have been saying all along. we need scum here and ztife is a really good bet. but whatevz.

Why would I need SK dead today if i'm scum? What difference would it make if its tomorrow? You keep saying this, but I see no justification.
Also, you're still on the far fetched idea that it could be 3scum+sk, and vig to justify that a scum me would need SK dead today because simply you have no other explaination.
In which in any other case, it would be safer and make alot more sense to lynch RC whom we are sure off, and check for the flip, rather than "obvscum ztife".

Unfortunately its pointless arguing between me and you because as far as I know, you're anti-town. Good job winning EPM over because we will need all 4 to stand any chance at all. Im sure penguin will see this as well. What makes me mad is all the posting and not realizing the predicament we are in and going with an OMGUS vote. Yeah I think EPM is scummy. I've said that all game and I have tried to pressure vote him to posting as well in the earlier days. There's no inconsistency in that. But fact is we need RC dead today to have an idea what this setup could be. Someone who spends time reading comments about himself rather than seeing what is needed to be done for him just deserves to lose. #951 1 sentence reply after our whole exchange just ticks me off. After half the town is dead and only one anti-town flipped and you think we have the luxury to take chances and "scum hunt, we can always lynch the obvscum/anti-town another day" then something must be seriously wrong with your logic, or you're just anti-town.

Also, I've overlooked that SAS's partner AKA EPM can possibly want to lynch a townie at this point. One of you will be NKed by him tonight, and if you cross-fire EPM then town wins. Otherwise it turns into a 3 way fight D5 which possibly ends in a draw.

If he's town and he decides to OMGUS instead of looking at the mountain of exchanges we have, then we deserves to lose. He practically spent about 20minutes in this entire game anyways.

[Ztife]

Why would I need SK dead today if i'm scum? What difference would it make if its tomorrow? You keep saying this, but I see no justification.

you aren't this dense. sk could shoot you overnight, eliminating your chance to win. sk may be bp, which you may already know or think, making killing him at night impossible. so yeah. plenty of motive for scum to want and/or need sk dead. i'm done explaining this.

Also, you're still on the far fetched idea that it could be 3scum+sk, and vig to justify that a scum me would need SK dead today because simply you have no other explaination.

a) neither scenario is far fetched. b) 2p scum + sk fits this scenario just fine as well. i am not on any single idea. i am taking all of the possibilities and making the best judgement call.

In which in any other case, it would be safer and make alot more sense to lynch RC whom we are sure off, and check for the flip, rather than "obvscum ztife".

nope. we are not "sure of" anything except RC has nk powers of some sort and that the evidence suggests those powers are limited or that he is bp or both. considering that there are no claimed town pr's, that increases the odds of him actually being vig. so vig or sk is way more likely than scumRC given the evidence. and there is no reason to lynch RC when we have caught scum. caught scum is the guy who is desperately trying anything he can to get RC lynched.

But fact is we need RC dead today to have an idea what this setup could be.

most likely, given the evidence, lynching RC is death knell for town.

Someone who spends time reading comments about himself rather than seeing what is needed to be done for him just deserves to lose. #951 1 sentence reply after our whole exchange just ticks me off. After half the town is dead and only one anti-town flipped and you think we have the luxury to take chances and "scum hunt, we can always lynch the obvscum/anti-town another day" then something must be seriously wrong with your logic, or you're just anti-town.

i have been in this situation countless times. i have lynched vig's and lost as town, i have played as scum in this position and done exactly what you are doing which is to try and convince town that the sk needs to be lynched. i have played as sk and claimed vig. i have been lynched as vig. in all my years of experience, lynching the sk/vig in this scenario is the wrong move.

Also, I've overlooked that SAS's partner AKA EPM can possibly want to lynch a townie at this point. One of you will be NKed by him tonight, and if you cross-fire EPM then town wins. Otherwise it turns into a 3 way fight D5 which possibly ends in a draw.

i'm not scum, so whatevz. i'm not so sure epm is scum at this point either. i agree, that if you are town, then this is the wrong move. but i think you are scum.

If he's town and he decides to OMGUS instead of looking at the mountain of exchanges we have, then we deserves to lose. He practically spent about 20minutes in this entire game anyways.

wonderful AtE. wonderful. your feigned concern about the fate of our town is moving.

@penguin
What do you think are the possibilities of town winning if we hit scum and town losing if we hit town?

In your perceived case where im scum, what difference does it make to lynch me tomorrow than now when you are more or less sure that RC is SK?
Assuming im scum and RC is SK and the rest is 4 townies. Lynching me and SK does not make a difference, except that if I flip town we lose.
Assuming im scum and RC is SK, and I have another scum buddy and there's 3 townies. This is unlikely to begin with, and whether you lynch scum or SK at town has already loss. I could type our the scenarios AGAIN but if you take a bit of time and picture it you will see this.

[Ztife]

Because SK has no shot tonight if he survives as taking a shot is pretty much claiming SK.

I don't see how it's risky to lynch RC but not risky to lynch into five people hoping that we hit the scum.

Because to DJ, its possible to be a 3scum + sk WITH BP setup, possible to be a VIG setup, but not a 2-scum + 2-scum with possible town PR.
Because to DJ its impossible for town PR not to claim today, when I have repeatedly explain that town PR should not claim today.
Also because DJ thinks im 100% scum because im pushing the SK lynch (I can be scum for pushing a SK lynch but not townie.. this seems to be something which he is obviously not very cautious about saying)

If im the last scum, why would I push so hard for RC lynch today and not tomorrow?
If im scum and I know that SK has abilities left and I want him lynched, this means that town needs him lynched to win too or there will be 2NKs tonight. I have explained that why a crossfire is not happening because any chance of sk or scum or multi-ball winning involves getting to D5.

So if SK has abilities, he needs to be lynched today in both the interest of scum and town. If SK has no abilities, he doesn't need to be lynched today.. so why is "scum Ztife" pushing for an SK lynch today so hard again? Oh, because it COULD be 3scum + SK, therefore Ztife must be 100% scum.

Well, I supposed I could spare some time to make a case today.

[Ztife]

From start of D4 855 till now my theory has been consistant. SK needs to be lynched, and the only reason not to is because RC is VIG or its 3scum + SK, which I have repeatedly said how unlikely it is.

Back in D3, I already had my suspicions because RC's claim was stupid, and not believable at all. I asked him who he shot,733 and why he claimed TWICE (because he refuses to answer) 749, and why he shot Bacde, 790 but he kept replying that he has his reasons and refuse to cooperate. I wanted to question epm and ankamius more but yeah well.. D3 just ended with a scummy hammer. I never found his vig claim to be believable, and yet nobody else seems to question this.

Do you think you can get any answer out of RC? Or believe what he says? Stop the act, please 974. The reason he is not answering is simply because he has no consistant answer to give and no excuses to cover up his shit. RC is anti-town for sure, because if he flips town I swear I will make him a PL in every game I play. And this is why penguin, I know we have to lynch him today because im sure he's anti-town.

D2 was crucial when I tried to pressure vote the lurkers into posting too, which is pretty much the fucking key and the reason why town got this shitty mess in the first place. If you remember D2 I rejected Red Dragon's theory of feg being scum and that it was more important to get the replacements to post. Feg is a easy lynch for scum no matter how you look at it.

Vote Count 2.3

Fegelein (3) -- don_johnson, Red Dragon, Secret Agent Sloth

Notice how the wagon started vote wise.

or we could just get on with the business of lynching you?

vote: feg

step 1) lynch feg.

that is another good reason to simply lynch him.

Why was feg lynched again?

As for D1, discussion was mostly between townies (bacde vs feg) and the end voting was town and town. Scums have no reasons to choose either particular wagon, and most people were just replacing in. Mostly null/weak reads for me here.



Big question here is, why would DJ defend RC so hard? (if TL:DR, I'll summarise it below)
DJ and RC is scum buddies in a multi-ball. I have said repeatedly this is still a possibility and i'm not sure why we would want to ignore this.
RC is SK, and DJ is SAS partner/last scum. If a townie gets lynched today instead of RC, RC is likely not to aim DJ because RC does not know if DJ is scum, and keeping DJ around could keep RC alive for another day. If RC shoots DJ then its obvious RC is SK and he will be lynched tomorrow. There are multiple possibilities that could happen after that but this is a possbile scenario to gain 2 NKs tonight.

ztife: you are basically saying that our only hope is to lynch RC, pray that he is mafia and not sk or vig, then hope that scum

crosskill

. do i have that right? it seems like an awfully faith based shot in the dark type way to play this game.

I was quoting possibilities, but over here he seems to suggest that he is not willing to take the chance of crosskill.

this is incorrect. HUGELY incorrect. if we lynch scum, sk and final scum can

crosskill

, or one kill can fail(due to possible bp/doc protect) and town can still end up in a 3p or 4p lylo/mylo with chance to win. chances are waaayyyyy better for town in this instance if we lynch scum. game is fucking over if we lynch sk. this a main crux of my argument that you seem to continually gloss over.

Over here he suggests a crosskill can happen just to argue with me that we can win LEAVING THE SK ALIVE because there might be a cross-kill. Also, I've proven why there will not be a crosskill in this scenario.

So there, CLEARLY, we need the SK lynched today, and there is no real answer to whether scum wants SK lynched because we don't know if he has bullet-proof or multi-ball or how many scums in the game or whatsoever. Unless there is extreme setups, all reasoning points to lynching RC today. That's all.

(Unless you believe its 3scum + sk. Actually, it could be 4scum + vig too HOLY SHIT WHY DIDNT I THINK OF THAT lets be on the "err side of caution, don_johnson" and not lynch the frickin SK /sarcasm)

We have 5 days left btw, and RC is V/LA and even he's back he probably won't answer anything. And EPM is probably back to reading 5 sentences a day. So stop beating around the bush.

@penguin
What are you actually thinking or considering about? If you are attempting to scum hunt, ask questions. Ask me, ask DJ, ask bump whatsoever. You can ask RC and EPM, but I doubt you will get anything. And think what what I have asked you.

Also, please answer this penguin

. Do you think RC is SK and do you think he needs to be lynched today? Assuming you are 100% sure of who scum is, what makes the difference between lynching them today and tomorrow?

By lynching SK today you also eliminate the possibility of having 2 NKs tonight. Also, compare the possibility of how sure of you who the SK is and how sure of you who the scum is precisely why im telling you to lynch RC first, and you can go for me (or dj or whatever) tomorrow. Why is that hard to see? Do you also understand that to lynch RC we probably need your vote and we still have to convince EPM?

[Ztife]

i also love how ztife keeps saying "we could have a doc" when its totally fucking obvious that noone here is a doctor. and yet, all of the scenarios that i have thrown out are "crazy". he is not acting like his own lynch would end in a town loss. he is just trying to argue to keep himself alive. my bet is he is SAS partner and is honestly unsure of whether or not we are in multi-ball which is why he is pushing the idea so forcefully. that and because if he can convince us of that then he gets to live another night.

if only bump wasn't buddying ztife so hard here i would be 100% sure....

How is it "fucking obvious" again there is no doc again? What advantage would it have for town for a doc to claim now? Please enlighten me.

Keep going in circles to keep your "arguements" alive dj, its pathetic.

[Ztife]

@DJ
Keep going in circles, saying that multi-ball is unlikely but still harping on the possibility of 3scum + SK when I have shown in the likely scenarios it will be beneficial for town to lynch SK today to win. Who's tunneling?

Things I agree with: we have an all-vanilla town and RC is an SK, likely BP to some degree. If this were multiball, RC shouldn't be BP and so would have no reason to gambit like he did, as the other scum team should have killed him. If RC is a vig, he hasn't...argh, trying not to be gratuitously insulting here...played in a pro-town fashion? I'll leave it at that and reserve the right to rant in post-game if he's a vig.

Not sure about 3 vs. 2 man scum team. Thinking of other 12-13 player game set-ups. Near-Vanilla is three goons balanced by a doc and JK. Fire and Ice has two 2-man goon teams balanced by nullified overlap-kills and a doc. While the BP SK weakens the Mafia, it doesn't really help the town and possibly requires us to lynch four anti-town players.

Looking at this again. If we are against a three-man scum team, even lynching the correct scum sends us into night 3-1-1, with the possibility of it being 1-1-1 come morning, which if RC is BP, leaves town screwed. Actually, there Mafia has to hope RC's BPness has run out and shoot him at the 3-1-1 night, leaving it at 2-1-0, 3-0-0, 2-1-1, or 3-0-1.

Since I don't think evilpacman18 or MrBump is scum, the only possibility to me is a don_johnson-Ztife-SAS scum team. In which case the survivors are bussing like crazy.

@penguin
What do you think are the possibilities of town winning if we hit scum and town losing if we hit town?

@penguin
What are you actually thinking or considering about? If you are attempting to scum hunt, ask questions. Ask me, ask DJ, ask bump whatsoever. You can ask RC and EPM, but I doubt you will get anything. And think what what I have asked you.

Also, please answer this penguin. Do you think RC is SK and do you think he needs to be lynched today? Assuming you are 100% sure of who scum is, what makes the difference between lynching them today and tomorrow?

By lynching SK today you also eliminate the possibility of having 2 NKs tonight. Also, compare the possibility of how sure of you who the SK is and how sure of you who the scum is precisely why im telling you to lynch RC first, and you can go for me (or dj or whatever) tomorrow. Why is that hard to see? Do you also understand that to lynch RC we probably need your vote and we still have to convince EPM?

If we hit Mafia and it's a three-man scum team, i.e. 3-1-1 going into night, it's a crapshoot depending on night kills and a possible kingmaker scenario for town if RC is full BP. Which Mafia would almost certainly claim is the case. Hitting town with a two-man team is the same scenario, except if RC kills Mafia we don't know for sure that all Mafia is dead.

At this point, I'm assuming one of you (Ztife) and DJ is scum. I find it less odd that DJ didn't mention SAS than that SAS didn't mention you, given the way some of the early days went. As far as scum hunting goes, you've both made your stances quite clear, and the longer things go on, the less I think I want to lynch either of you today. If I'm around tomorrow and we're trying to find scum, there will be plenty of time to investigate then. Or more likely at 3-1, move to no-lynch and hope the choice gets dumped on some other townie's shoulders.

DJ, if RC is a 2-shot vig, we're screwed any way we go, since we're lynching him today or tomorrow. A three-man scum team with a correct scum lynch today with RC as a vig out of shots has one scum left and one NK, but let's face it, we're all betting on RC being an SK and would lynch him as responsible for the single kill in that case. I don't see the mod having an X-shot vig where X = # of Mafia when a near-vanilla town is presumably in place to make us rely on the day phases for victory. A 2-man scum team forces the survivor to narrow the pool via NKs if we no-lynch at MyLo.

ztife/bump/SAS scum team against town with RC limited vig.

so we lynch ztife first. sort out between bump and RC tomorrow.

So it's 3-1-1. Two NKs, likely on town, leaves town as kingmaker. Even 2-1-1 leaves town screwed. And like I said, sorting out between MrBump and RC is almost certainly going to result in lynching RC. I'll tell you right now that that would be my choice. If we're going to lose because we're up against a three-man scum team, I'd rather do it now.

Precisely, multi-ball with a doc(fire and ice setup) and sk + 2 scum + 10 VTs are more possible setups since they are balanced, and in these cases lynching RC is priority to winning. If its multi-ball and we lynch SAS's partner it means town loss. In the other scenario if we mislynch town instead of scum it would end up in the 1-1-1 D5.

In my other game with 3 scum + SK we had tracker and doc and neighbors.

Even though we lynched 3 scums in 4 days town

still loss

. If there's no town PR, dj claims that multi-ball is unlikely but 3scums + SK is possible. If only you would even see how paradoxical this statement is. I agree that in this setup we lose if we lynch SK, but fact is town loses

anyway

. In a tight situation like now where we cannot afford to mislynch we have to have the SK lynch, especially when we are so sure of it. If it was mult-ball even if we hit SAS's partner we would lose instantly. SK is third party, if SK is functional and scum wants SK dead then its the best interest for town to want SK dead as well. If scum wants SK alive then all the more town would need SK lynched because scum would only keep SK alive for anti-town purposes. So even if you think that me and dj are probably scum, think about why we have to lynch the SK today.

[Ztife]

Mod can you remove the double post? Thanks

[Ztife]

We're probably at MYLO now.
@DJ Why did you change your actions after arguing for the most part yesterday that you want RC to be kept alive?

[Ztife]

Why am I scum again?

ok. that selfie looks like a last ditch effort by a desperate sk. i'll bite on the 2p scum vs sk vs all vanilla town.

bump: you need to let go of your anger.

vote: radiant cowbells

let's see what happens..

if its an sk flip and the game continues, last scum is either ztife or epm imo. most likely ztife. bump and penguin should be clear.

And no, your thoughts are not laid out fine. Your hammer contradicts literally everything you have said on Day 4. Its a little something we call an opportunistic vote.
What happening to

lynching scum over SK

? What happen to your insistance in 3scum + SK? In light of your scum hunting for D4 (which is literally just defending RC and accusing me in essence) you hammered instead of pushing my wagon (whom you thought scum). And unless im clearly mistaken you are ditching your "scum over SK" because it was going to be an easy hammer. So, try again scum. Maybe you can come up with a better reason.

Penguin what were you holding your vote for on most of D4? Guide us through your train of thoughts, please.

[Ztife]

Why am I scum again?

you are most likely SAS partner. I didn't make that case, maybe penguin did. I think he stated it was through associative tells, but i'll let him answer that. for me, it was your uber paranoid reaction yesterday and your consistent abandonment of common sense regarding set-up and what the best move was for town. guess who said "hey guys, lynching RC is the wrong move"? yeah, that was me. guess what. it was the wrong move, and the only reason this game continued is because we got lucky on set-up. your entire case yesterday was built from a scum perspective and I stated it over and over and no one really seemed to listen. only scum had to fear sk/multi-ball. and only SAS partner would fear multi-ball because for everyone else, RC was

either

vig or sk.

ok. that selfie looks like a last ditch effort by a desperate sk. i'll bite on the 2p scum vs sk vs all vanilla town.

bump: you need to let go of your anger.

vote: radiant cowbells

let's see what happens..

if its an sk flip and the game continues, last scum is either ztife or epm imo. most likely ztife. bump and penguin should be clear.

And no, your thoughts are not laid out fine. Your hammer contradicts literally everything you have said on Day 4.

except, of course, what I said when I hammered. and all the stuff I said in the post or two before that. but if you want to quote it, and then ignore it, that's up to you.

Its a little something we call an opportunistic vote.

nah. oppurtunistic would have been to simply lynch RC right out. Fact: there can only be one scum left. which means that yesterday, there was one lone scum. and that scum would have had no idea what the hell was going on in this wonky set-up and would have been hell bent on lynching the fuck out of the "other" claimed nightkiller. kind of like how, oh, id don't know... how you were acting?

What happening to

lynching scum over SK

? What happen to your insistance in 3scum + SK?

nothing. no one seemed to agree, and in listening to bump I agreed on the most likely set-ups. of which, 2p scum/sk/vanillatown seemed to be most likely after all our discussion. I can't lynch you on my own. and no one was supportive of it yesterday. considering I lynched the guy that YOU wanted to lynch from the get-go, I honestly don't see the problem for you. in your eyes, I should prpobably be clear at this point. I think your best move would have been to nk obvtownpenguin and go after epm. but then I would have called you on that as well. so whatevz.

In light of your scum hunting for D4 (which is literally just defending RC and accusing me in essence) you hammered instead of pushing my wagon (whom you thought scum).

I pushed your wagon all day. I only hammered after RC failed hard in answering questions and self voted. also after discussing things with bump and working them out in my own head. which is all clearly documented in my posts.

And unless im clearly mistaken you are ditching your "scum over SK" because it was going to be an easy hammer. So, try again scum. Maybe you can come up with a better reason.

wonderful theory. but why in the hell would scumdj have gone through all that trouble? you are missing the most important element here... motive. you need a majority to lynch, and the majority was leaning towards RC. I can only fight for what I believe for so long. we can wifom it all day, but I can only hope that people use common sense today and realize that...

dj was fucking right.

Penguin's case? Your case was.. Ztife is pushing the RC lynch and therefore he must be scum, which ironically you hammer yourself. Or so it seems D4. Which part of me abandon common sense regarding setup? I listed all possible setups, I have also mentioned that this is one of the likely setups

Precisely, multi-ball with a doc(fire and ice setup) and sk + 2 scum + 10 VTs are more possible setups since they are balanced, and in these cases lynching RC is priority to winning.

Again, couple of misreps.
1. I listed all setups. I have also mentioned (quoted) the likely ones. Where was my abandonment of common sense again? Please.. you are just bringing it into wifom. Im not even sure you understand the meaning of possibility and likely at this point.
2. I have consistency in my posts. Even if we redo D4 again, I would probably still lynch RC. Fact is RC play was anti-town like and it was to me unlikely he was vig.
3. I agree that in a multi-ball or if RC was an SK he has to be lynched. Not sure how this makes me scum instead of town, please explain.
4. I agree that I pushed RC to be lynched, and I agree that my read about him not being vig was wrong.

You have been pushing my wagon for all sorts of wrong reasons, and that's why the wagon did not gain traction. Do you even realise? I'm not scum, and there's no clear reason/motivation why I should would be pushing RC wagon this hard if I'm scum. You go on about high and loftly theories about how scum should fear sk and all that stuff but end of the day, you can't give literal examples why if it is a lone scum he has to push the wagon like I did instead of just lurking more.

Town make wrong lynches, town makes wrong pushes, simply because they don't know alignment. Reads are still reads. In fact, wrong reads are mostly a null-townish read. Scums are afraid to give strong reads or read-list because it could make them look scummy. If they push too many wrong wagons it will draw attention to them. Scums mostly just want to lie low and go with popular opinion to get lynches.

bottom page 5. red dragon and mr. bumps defense of SAS is noted. Ztife as well but not so much. ztifes opinion seems a bit more genuine. of the three, it is almost obvious at this point that red dragon is scum. so:

unvote, vote red dragon

for now. will keep reading...

This is an example of a crap-ass vote, no mention of RD and suddenly pops a vote without any specific reason. Much of the same is done for the feg lynch (and your D1 vote was well). The reason why the whole RC lynch was super scummy its because you changed your opinion last minute, where you have stated your stand on not lynching RC because he's vig/sk. And you have also somewhat wifom his scummy behaviour throughout as "reasonable town-PR play". Therefore the only trigger for you to lynch RC was because of his self vote.

What was DJ right about again? RC being vig.. meaning you lynched someone you thought vig? Or about RC needing to be lynched, which in this case you did the hammer against the logic which you have argue with me all of D4.. or is DJ right about 2scum+sk? Because if that's the case, im pretty sure I mentioned 2scum+sk more times than you did. I would do the quotes if anybody would bother to read. But yeah, keep mis-repping, and keep insisting.. the only thing at this point im unsure of because penguin seems to be probable scum, and your insistent flawed tunneling of me. I will need to do a re-read for D2 and D3 especially.

Bump has been hard defending himself mostly, but his play just seems way too out there to be scum. Like I said, scums lie and wait, which is pretty much what you and penguin has been doing for the early days.

[Ztife]

penguin: merely asking for your opinion. not sure how the timing is relevant there. also, traitor makes no sense in this scenario. if there is a traitor and one scum against two town, they could just stalemate and bully until they get their way. that doesn't seem to be fair. if you can find the ruling, please enlighten me as the wiki isn't very clear. but from a common sense perspective, traitor seems irrelevant. even if we lynch a traitor we go to night with scum vs. two townies. ends in a scum win. so we need to lynch scum today regardless. again, if you look at the hard evidence, most likely set-up is 2pscum vs town with limited vig. look at how ztife pushed to get RC lynched and his reasoning why. all of his reasoning was fearmongering over a multi-ball set-up and/or the idea that for SOME reason, town NEEDED to lynch the alleged sk. though some of the arguments seem logical, there is no way ever in that situation that is in towns best interest to lynch the alleged sk. there was ZERO evidence of multi-ball from a townie's perspective. Ztife was arguing from the standpoint of being the lone scum left behind by SAS. He was honestly confused as to the set-up which led some reality to his posting, but ultimately, look at what he was trying to do. my acquiescence to the RC lynch was based on all of the things I stated. look at our post lynch reactions. look at the fact that ztife's main push for scumdj was that dj was partnered with scumRC. there is very little case to be made against dj as SAS partner. especially given all of my actions yesterday when I could have simply lynched RC and shot bump or ztife to rid myself of one of my main opponents. we can wifom this to death. if its between ztife and myself the choice shouldn't be that tough. but ask away if you have questions.

Again, misrep me. Explaing why its not possible to be a multi-ball (0 evidence? not sure where you get that crap), and I have also said that in 2scum + SK it will benefit to get the SK lynched as well.

Again, if if was not in town's best interest to lynch SK then why did you hammer?

If you had believe that lynching RC will lead to town loss which you have repeated multiple times why did you hammer instead of trying to make town win?

Fact is, your actions benefit you being scum the most, and therefore you come up with all sorts of reasons to cover youself (inconsistencies and more inconsistencies) Contradict yourself all over, and continue mis-repping me. Your first 3 day actions, as well as your contradicting hammer, is enough reason for me at this point. Your reasons for RC lynch is hard to elaborate because simply it contradicts everything you have said D4. Again, discussions with bump? All I saw was a 2-liner and you hammered. You realise this is WIFOM because everything you are accusing me of being scum is WIFOM, but you keep avoiding your own inconsistancies.

Vote: dj

[Ztife]

DJ in a nutshell:

Defends RC.
Argues about why we should not lynch

SK

(SCUM > SK).

Hammers RC whom he thinks is SK.
Unless he's telling me he hammered someone he thinks is vig

Was going to give him a chance to explain.. but now im sure. Lynching RC is not the problem. The problem is changing your stance with no real explaination.

i think 2p scum/sk/vanillatown is more likely than multi-ball.

i think 3pscum/townwithvig is more likely than multi-ball.

based on those two scenarios, there is no need to lynch RC today. he can be dealt with tomorrow. only player who really needs him lynched today would be a scum player. so whatevz.

I was at practically at L-1 too anyway, but he knew he couldn't push my lynch.

[Ztife]

"Precisely, multi-ball with a doc(fire and ice setup) and sk + 2 scum + 10 VTs are more possible setups since they are balanced, and in these cases lynching RC is priority to winning."

^^ is this what you said ztife? because in those scenarios lynching RC is ONLY priority to winning in the multi-ball set-up. and if you're willing to bet on four anti-town roles, why can't they be 3p scum and sk? in which case that gives us another scenario where lynching sk is the wrong move. given the evidence, multi-ball was the least likely set-up. and multi-ball was the ONLY ONLY ONLY ONLY ONLY ONLY set-up in which lynching the sk would be a priority for town to win. and given the evidence of two nights with only one nk, the multi-ball set-up was the least likely set-up. so you were pushing for the "priority" lynch given the least likely set-up speculation. in the other scenarios, it benefits scum way more than town to go ahead and lynch the sk/vig player.

Yeah, find it post 986
SK was priority lynch for all setup, not just multi-ball. post 862
Lynching RC was the correct move except that he was totally playing as a horrible vig. Erm, why did you lynch hammer RC again? Me pushing RC lynch is scummy, you hammering issin't. Hmm, not sure if I get the logic here unless you are scum.

In case you can't understand my post, or anybody else is wondering why we keep going in circles with DJ.

I don't. I'm explaining Ztife's thought process to the best of my own knowledge. Stop putting words in my mouth.

I just explained why lynching into five people hoping to hit Scum is incredibly risky. You thinking Ztife is Scum does not make him Scum. If he is, it's a good lynch, but it's too risky. I literally just explained and you ignored my post completely and utterly with a "whatevz". You asked the question for what I assume was information or to understand my thought process then proceeded to not even accept that it existed?

sk could shoot you overnight, eliminating your chance to win

YEP YOU DEFINITELY IGNORED MY FUCKING POST

YOU FLAT OUT DID NOT READ WHAT I JUST SAID

THAT IS MY ONLY EXPLANATION

WHAT THE FUCK

YOU ARE LITERALLY NOT EVEN READING THE ARGUMENTS PRESENTED

THAT IS WHY WE ARE GOING IN CIRCLES, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

And.. POOF. Hammers the "SK". That move is golden.

[Ztife]

1. In regards to multi-ball and town pr, explained in 950. Why would town PR claim?

2. As for RC as priority lynch in 2scum +SK, its been explained in the exact same post. We don't know if SK has another shot, and we don't know who scum is but we know who the SK is 100%. We might not get scum. But we WILL hit SK for sure. We potentially eliminate 2NK a night.

Not really sure how to answer your questions since they have already been answered and you have ignored them conveniently and keep drawing circles Bump will eventually realize this when he catches up the post, you really need to try and cover up your tracks if you wanna use these arguments against me. I stand by that my read on D4 on RC is SK and he would have been made a priority lynch eitherway. That's all. If you flip town then both you and RC just played really badly and we deserve to lose.

[Ztife]

Mod, messed up the above post quotes can you delete it for me? Thanks

Done

[Ztife]

There's no unknown. W're discussing all the possibilities so we are covering everything. Over here it makes no difference, and we're more sure of who SK is anyway.

there is an unknown. HOW MANY SCUM ARE LEFT. RC MAY BE VIG considering we have no town power. scum team is either 2 or 3p. no guarantee of 2p. which makes scum lynch> sk lynch. how can you not see that?

Are you for real? If this setup is true SK is not going to NK scum N4, because 3 flipped scum means D5 SK is the one who gets lynched.

huh? this makes no sense. there is only one flipped scum. you do realize that if the above happens, then town wins, right? isn't that what we are trying to do? you also realize that in the above case, if we lynch the sk today, town loses, right? this reasoning makes zero sense.

if scumteam is 3p and we lynch RC as sk, then WE LOSE. So lynching him is not an option at this time.

It is in the best interest of both faction not to cross kill should they want to win. Not to mention the possibility of this setup being so inbalanced is probably not happening and also whether the SK has BP.

and?

i'd rather take my chances at night than LOSE BY LYNCHING THE SK NOW

.

i'm not wall posting with you anymore ztife. i can't imagine a scenario where you are town and arguing this insanely against common sense and hard evidence.

i think 2p scum/sk/vanillatown is more likely than multi-ball.

i think 3pscum/townwithvig is more likely than multi-ball.

based on those two scenarios, there is no need to lynch RC today.

he can be dealt with tomorrow. only player who really needs him lynched today would be a scum player. so whatevz.

Clearly, you don't want to lynch SK even though we both agree that it could be 2scum + sk. This is not the only posts, there's more, im just too lazy to find atm.

ok. that selfie looks like a last ditch effort by a desperate sk. i'll bite on the 2p scum vs sk vs all vanilla town.

Clearly, your opinion changed when RC was an easy hammer target. Because... he self voted? Would appreciate if you could enlighten me more about your "discussion" with bump that made you "change your mind".

You repeatedly said to lynch me > RC.
You hammered RC when we still have a couple of days, when I was at L-1 anyway.
What happen to be chance of 3scum + sk?

Fact is, you are afraid of an NL and you want RC lynched as well. RC was scummy all game, if you were really afraid that there is a chance town would lose because "scum ztife and his buddy" needs RC lynched to win and therefore they are pushing it so hard, then you WILL NOT lynch RC no matter what. Hammering RC, then continuous calling me scum for pushing an RC lynch (look at the plain irony there) is just pathetic.

[Ztife]

@dj
yup. that's what I said. but I eventually came to the conclusion that your "buddy" was SAS. who was already dead. which left you as the lone scum, overly paranoid about the possibility that you had been outscummed by an RC/dj scumteam or might possibly get beaten by an sk. we covered this too. several times now. my hesitancy on the RC lynch was that you might possibly be buddied with a third player. no one else thought that to be a possibility. I also argued for the idea that RC might just be a vig based on the claims and the body count. but no one bought that either. so whatevz.

1. So are you implying that you lynched RC because you think he is a vig? Not sure what you are trying to tell us here.
2. How did you "eventually come to the conclusion" that im scum? Please elaborate.
If im scum and I want RC lynched, shouldn't you NOT be doing that?
How was I wrong about the possibility of a multi-ball setup? Again, you have avoided my questions.
3. What happen to your "hesitancy" because of my possible 3rd scum buddy then?

So first you said that it was the self vote from RC that make you decide to hammer him, now you claim that its because you "knew" it was 2scum/sk because I stated about multi-ball, which I have actually done right from the start from D4 and when you have repeatedly stated that you will not lynch RC.

What was the real reason for your hammer of RC again? Its been about 4 replies now and we're getting a different answer each time.

[Ztife]

Ztife has some pretty key mistakes earlier in the game that I pointed out at the time and his arguments today are really silly. DJ's explained thousands of times what happened and Ztife just keeps arguing for the sake of arguing. In addition, it feels like Ztife concluded there was no way that two scum vs 11 Town was balanced so pushed a lynch on RC/DJ as he was sure one of them was anti-town.

Argue for the sake of arguing? Explain what you understand of DJ's explaination/hammer.

Someone who says we should not lynch RC and goes hammering, if RC flips anti-town he gets town cred, if RC flips town he goes "I told you so" and gets town cred as well? Not sure what you are making of his "explaination" really, because town don't adjust their reasoning when scum hunting. Scums do, because they are finding ways to make townies look scummy or make themselves look town. One moment its not ok to lynch RC, another moment it is.

You and I know why we wanted the RC lynch. But why would DJ want RC lynch after all that bullshit he put up? Because RC self-voted? Does RC self-voting change any of his bullshit theories earlier? It doesn't.. because lynching the "SK" at this point would help DJ look more town.


Also, I never conclude that 2scum vs 11 town is impossible, I said that vig rc was pretty much impossible and sk should be lynched for us to know the setup. In fact I did mention that 2scum + sk was likely.

Precisely, multi-ball with a doc(fire and ice setup) and sk + 2 scum + 10 VTs are more possible setups since they are balanced, and in these cases lynching RC is priority to winning. If its multi-ball and we lynch SAS's partner it means town loss. In the other scenario if we mislynch town instead of scum it would end up in the 1-1-1 D5.

I also said RC lynch was important to tell us the setup and it is unlikely we would lose lynching him. To begin with, which vig would fucking self-vote anyway.

Also I believe my "key mistakes" earlier seems to refer to 473. Well, talk me through it, and compare to DJ's play through the days side by side with mine.

[Ztife]

Well, the days are ticking.

Bit of an anti-climax, really. Not sure if either of them are trying to wait for the other and hop for the hammer.

[Ztife]

GG!

This was fun, actually RC messed up the game for me with his erratic play IMHO. RD was obv-town, and I was planning to keep him to end game and buddy up but he got quick hammered. I was expecting RC to be SK/scum too to get town-cred, his flipping vig was totally unexpected. I had no good kills N4 otherwise lol.