Mini 1454 - GAME OVER

[DeasVail]

Hey guys! I'll start reading in a couple of hours.

If there's anything that you think I should know beforehand, then well... let me know!

[DeasVail]

Well don't all rush out to greet me geez. I would have given the first person to say hi to me a free townread too.

Bubba, what would you expect to have been different about fuzzy's play if he was scum this game (this referring to day 1 in particular)?

Why did your Amrun scumread go out the window in 798?

So, I've read Bubba's posts. At first I thought the sudden disappearance of the notscience scumread only to complain about everyone finding scummy (without having any reasoning for him being town) was pretty scummy, but then he decided to town it up, so I'm unsure. I kind of skimmed towards the end, but I thought his end-of-day interactions with notscience were pretty compatible with them being scumbuddies, so I'm going to look at everyone else, read over a few things of Bubba's and then decide.

PEdit: Hey, so I have no idea whether this Marc guy is scummy or not, but let's not make him claim.

[DeasVail]

*everyone finding him scummy

[DeasVail]

Oh wait he's voting for me.

Yeah, he can die.

[DeasVail]

Oh wait he's voting for me.

Yeah, he can die.

(Just in case, this isn't serious and I'd still be in favour of not making him claim, at least until I get the chance to read him)

Also, sorry for the quadruple post.

[DeasVail]

I'm really sorry to be doing this to you guys, but stuff has come up so I'm catching up slower than I planned to. I still will though.

NS

548 is the most town thing about him so far.

I don't like his premature linking of notscience to Amrun in 951.

Overall I'm leaning slightly town, but it may not be enough to stop me from wanting to lynch him.

Now JKMatthews/Kthxbye

I feel conflicted here, but I'm going with 130 from JK being a towntell. He says that even if Fuzzy is town he wouldn't mind lynching him, which is more brave than I'd expect of not so experienced scum, who want to be good townies and only lynch scum.

434 makes it seem like he's bussing notscience. The post (happy to lynch any of the three) does not match with his earlier eagerness to lynch notscience and find out the scum after that. My explanation for this is that he wanted to appear as anti-notscience as possible to look good if he was lynched.

547 is possibly town. It's weak though.

There's a remarkable absence of anything related to notscience (his former no.1 scumread) until 923 and there was never anything to indicate that he thought Not was town either.

Oh and don't miss the 'I have to get something extra in because I'm really desperate to bus' in 1028

Question to the audience: What would you say the consensus read on kthx was at the beginning of Day 4?

1037 is kind of town.

His interactions with not are probably worse than Bubba's but it seems I'm finding everyone's relation to notscience bad so that might be a problem on my end...

Anyway, reads are still in progress and I'll continue tomorrow.

[DeasVail]

I'll get to this properly again later, but should I be claiming now?

[DeasVail]

Can someone go through for me how GIF ended up claiming, and whether I should bother reading him? Jon too on the reading part.

I can't really get much out of Marc's posts, but there is nothing that I find town and 1039 is odd in that he's exaggerating how for a notscience lynch he was. I'm not actually sure if this is a scumtell or a towntell. He also mentions AJ when he's already mentioned that scum would have thought him town, so it's just weird.

Marc. what about me did you find to be town?

Oh, and he's a commuter apparently. Hmmm.

I may make another post tonight with thoughts on the setup and maybe sorting out my reads beyond inital impressions.

[DeasVail]

Before that though,

GiF, why didn't you claim your full role at the start of the day?

PEdit: But why am I town? Why aren't I just not as bad at scum as Juan was? You retracting your scumread on me makes me think that you believe me to be a harder lynch than Juan was (probably wrong, but you wouldn't know that), which led to your target change.

[DeasVail]

Because of the roleblocker.

Can you expand on this?

[DeasVail]

Why not out the N1 report though?

[DeasVail]

Why not out the N1 report though?

I already did :<

I mean at the beginning of the day.

[DeasVail]

VT. I'm going to think about this now.

[DeasVail]

Also, I think one of the PRs has to be scum, and I really don't know why Bubba and GiF aren't realising that.

[DeasVail]

My thoughts on GiF:

His claim of even-night watcher is fine and I don't have a problem with it, but what I do have a problem with is his reaction to Jon's claim. Obviously he should know that his act is up as soon as Jon's post, so why doesn't he just claim then? If he claimed even-night to avoid the N3 nightkill, but scum roleblocked him anyway, then he should know that scum don't necessarily believe him and shouldn't be so hesitant to claim when someone heavily hinting at a PR wants to know what his role is. This delayed reaction seems a lot like scum that doesn't know what to do after their claim has been messed up. Should I 1v1 jon or change my claim? is an example of such indecision.

However, this is not entirely conclusive and I can see it maybe coming from town. What I can't get over though, is why scum didn't roleblock Bubba. I think it's safe to assume that one of GiF and Bubba is scum (look at all the town power if you don't believe me) and if Bubba is town, there

has

to be a roleblocker. So with GiF-scum and Bubba town, it's obvious that Bubba gets roleblocked, yes?

So, at the moment I'm leaning towards voting for Bubba.

[DeasVail]

Um, no it isn't. If you're town, then GiF is very likely mafia. If you're town, then there is very likely a roleblocker (otherwise doc + nurse + cop is just lol).

So if there's a roleblocker and GiF is mafia, then you should have been roleblocked. Therefore, the most logical thing is that you're scum.

[DeasVail]

Oh, and cop is a totally typical scumclaim anyway so...

[DeasVail]

I'm honestly pretty open to the idea of GiF being scum with you, but that's not something I wanted to work out yet. What I meant was that in the situation where GiF was scum and you were town (which is the only way in my mind for you to be town) you'd have to have been roleblocked. You weren't, which makes you-town Gif-scum unlikely, which makes you scum.

Macho cop would change things, but I'm not sure that I believe you.

I like you.

[DeasVail]

Actually, you're probably not scum with GiF so scratch that.

[DeasVail]

It could be a bus, but I don't think NS's reaction so far is particularly scummy. It could be from scum, but I could see town doing it too.

Also, I'm not scum.

[DeasVail]

Actually wait, GiF are you saying that Bubba is town?

[DeasVail]

Why do you think that Bubba is town? I find it pretty unlikely that there's a Cop, a JOAT, a Watcher, a Doctor a Nurse and a 2-Shot Commuter all in the same game.

[DeasVail]

(in a 13p game)

[DeasVail]

First of all, I'm a tracker, not watcher.
Also, we already had JoaT, commuter, nurse, and doctor confirmed and those alone are already ridiculous.
I find bubba town based on his D1 impression and stubbornness.

Sorry, my bad.

So those alone are ridiculous, so let's have even more PRs? I'm not sure I get your argument there.

And hello I've breadcrumbed my way here. The best argument you COULD make is I'm scum cop / stalker. Which would also be stupid because

A: I could've claimed guilty on Amrun (DUH)
B: I didn't "Investigate" Gif and claim a guilty.

Why would I (as scum) go for a VT. if I was scum cop?

You could've claimed a guilty on Amrun and then gotten immediately lynched afterwards. That's always a smart scum move!

Why would you go for GiF, especially if everyone thought he was town? NS is a much easier target. NS could even be your scumbuddy.

[DeasVail]

kthx, what do you feel is the likelihood of one of the PR claims being scum?

[DeasVail]

I would prefer you not to, as I feel that bubba + kthx is a plausible scumteam.

[DeasVail]

And for some reason kthx doesn't seem to care for it today?

Well you're not scum with GiF, that's pretty apparent, and apart from that there are two options.

[DeasVail]

The new information is that there is more town power than I'd expect in a 13p game, so it's very likely one of you or GiF is scum. If there is a roleblocker, you not being roleblocked makes it likely that you're scum. This was a certainty until your claim of Macho Cop, which I'm not sure whether I can believe considering the convenient timing, but even so, the existence of a roleblocker seems fairly likely. Why would I take your information that NS and run with it when there is evidence to suggest that I can't trust you, and kthx is uncharacteristically ignoring the idea of one of the PRs being scum?

PEdit: What's the use in me voting if I know that as things are it won't achieve a lynch? There is also the possibility that I'm wrong and that it will result in a quicklynch, and I still have unanswered questions, the answers to which I'd like to consider to clarify my reads.

I never really said that you and GiF were scum. When I mentioned it was possible, I quickly realised that it wasn't likely the case.

NS is not being very easy to read at the moment, so I don't know what to think there. The fact that it's apparently impossible for you to bus in LYLO is what would make it a smart play. At the moment I think you're scum (Bubba), but I'm not entirely sure of it, and I don't know whether it would be NS or kthx that is scum with you.

[DeasVail]

The fact is that someone has to be bussing. Either you with notscience, or Bubba with kthx or NS.

[DeasVail]

If GiF is scum, then NS is scum. Redirection doesn't happen in normal games.

And there are probably two mafia left kthx, with this much town power.

[DeasVail]

And kthx, how am I off my rocker?

[DeasVail]

He hasn't been significantly active onsite since his last post here (except for modding duties) so I'm not going to assume he's scum just because of that. I think my assumption that there are too many town PRs is a fair bit safer than that.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say to me in the first part of the latest post. It almost seems like you're saying I'm not scum.

Bubba, I agree that there are aspects to your play and to GiF's that make you guys being scum unlikely, but there has to be something up here. NS can easily be scum, yes, but after that, who? I understand that to you guys, I'm the obvious choice, but I know I'm town and on the off-chance that I could accept this many town PRs, there is no way I'm going to believe that there are only two mafia in this game with everyone's claim being true. Kthx is an inno, GiF has bussed not, your reports match up with your posts. Everyone has a good reason not to be lynched, but one of those reasons has to be wrong. The fact that there are so many claimed PRs suggests you or GiF being scum (and I know this has been argued before, but obviously no one seems to care about it and no one has given me a good reason to think otherwise, unless you count GiF's 'well it was too much before Bubba's claim, but now that he has, it's actually ok.')

I have also been fooled by realistic-looking reports before, and I know that some scum like to set up future claims (and for some reason they all want to claim cop).

To add on to that, both you and GiF have been questionable to me, GiF with his stalling after Jon calling him out and his strange explanation for not thinking this is too many PRs, you for not being roleblocked and the convenient Macho claim. Your reaction seems semi-genuine to me, so I'm reconsidering, but I don't think it's ridiculous for me to suspect you considering that at least one of you/Kthx/GiF has to be scum.

[DeasVail]

And to be completely honest with you, I'm really starting to think kthx is scum, and kthx can't be scum with GiF.

[DeasVail]

Oh, and why I should be confirmed town:

Do you really think I'd try this hard to save my scumbuddy, even after it's obvious no one will listen to me?

I'm not completely serious and I do understand people being suspicious of me, but I don't think my play matches with being scum with NS, and it's not like I could be scum with anyone else.

[DeasVail]

The mod's obviously not going to answer that.

Now, kthx. Think about it. There are 2 Mafia Goons. From your point of view, the last mafia is probably a PR, but that's not enough power to justify so much town power. Extra PRs to mess with setup-speculation doesn't actually work, because PRs like Tracker can be confirmed and any kind of cop is just really powerful.

What I ask is that you don't assume I'm scum, and that if you do think I am, let me make my best attempt to convince you otherwise.

Vote: GuyinFreezer

[DeasVail]

Also, in answer to the roleblocker thing, it could be either. It depends on the mod/role PM that was given. Both are normal as far as I know.

[DeasVail]

I never give up as scum. Usually I just do really stupid things as I become more desperate, but never give up. Also, saying this is probably not a good idea, but oh well.

I don't know what to say to convince you I'm town, but the best thing I can say is that I really don't think I'd have tried to 'save' NS so hard. If I was scum, knowing that Bubba and GiF were town, then he would have definitely been going down in my point of view. Much better to bus than to implicate myself in such a way. I wouldn't try to distract from his lynch as I did just so I could make this argument, as there's no way I would have been able to rely on it changing your mind. Obviously it looks bad, and I would've known this before doing it.

Now onto GiF. The bussing was one thing that made me doubt him being scum at first as well and it's part of the reason why I thought it was bubba and not him, but scum do bus, it just happens. I agree it makes him less likely scum and there's not much else I can say about it. His claim too, seems town, but was a great way to be incredibly town-looking and notscience was not exactly in the best of positions. I've seen a lot of games where unconfirmed PR claims fail to save really scummy people.

The most glaring thing that I see is that there is just way too much town power and just imagining the reviewing of the game, I am pretty sure they'd strongly recommend taking off a PR or two. Macho Cop and Tracker are powerful investigative roles (tracker moreso than usual with the number of PRs) and you have a JOAT as well! It's just too much.

The most incriminating thing that I could see about GiF was his reaction to Jon's claim. Because it was an odd day, it wasn't important for GiF to withhold his claim anymore, so when asked to claim he should have just done it if town. I've already talked about why his stalling would come from scum.

I guess you could say that 1195 is possibly because he wanted to be able to be seen as being against his buddy, but the other stuff is just more incriminating imo.

[DeasVail]

You would've just asked him to claim in that case then? Unless you were scared of being accused of rolefishing...

[DeasVail]

He was strongly suggesting that he was a PR, so if you were waiting for him to fullclaim, it makes sense to, you know, ask him to fullclaim, rather than just sit there talking about there being a contradiction, when you should know at that stage there was a reasonable chance that Jon had discovered you lying about your role.

[DeasVail]

If you were going to out it at the end of the day anyway, why did it matter so much?

Also, it doesn't make much sense to expect him to have fullclaimed when you didn't yourself.

[DeasVail]

Sorry guys.

[DeasVail]

The roleblocker thing was because Bubba claimed cop, not macho cop by the way.