Mini 1499 - State Farm Mafia 2 - Game Over

[Dry-fit]

9. Do not use any form of provable randomness. Claiming you rolled dice and acting on that is fine. Using dice tags is not.

Hey I actually read the rules for this game. Was surprised by this one.

Vote: TCold.

I hate the cold.

[Dry-fit]

I'm planning on sheeping someone,

If you already have suspects, why are you looking to sheep?

Unvote. Vote: Mastin2.

[Dry-fit]

Unvote.

No need for anyone to be at L-1 right now.

@Alice Glass: Since this is your first game, I want to know: how much do you know about mafia?

[Dry-fit]

How do any of you guys even have serious reads yet?

Some serious nitpicking.

Mastin still insists on sheeping for no reason so

Vote: Mastin2.

(L-2)

I'm liking mastin's recent posts, he's thinking like a townie, discussing his scumreads and townreads.
UNVOTE:

Is deciding to sheep someone "for better or for worse" thinking like a townie?

[Dry-fit]

I'm not a fan of Dry's vote on mastin in attempt to revive the wagon when we already got information from it.

Do something about it? Your vote seems to be free.

Care to answer my question about Mastin's supposed townie thinking?

[Dry-fit]

Naw Mastin eagle is just transparently scum here.

Don't like toomai's vote though.

[Dry-fit]

Geez didn't realize Mastin was at L-1 again.

Unvote.

Mastin isn't claiming. Eagle is scum.

Why do you not like it, Dry?

There just isn't a scum motivation to say Mastin only gave one scumread when he clearly gave more.

[Dry-fit]

Unvote.

Mastin isn't claiming. Eagle is scum.

Have to ask, if you think Eagle's scum, why did you unvote without placing a vote on Eagle?

Because I want this game to slow down a little. The Eagle wagon had a lot of support and you've been put to L-1 twice already. I feel like this game is particularly susceptible to a quicklynch.

Speaking of which, what was up with peace asking for a claim from Mastin on page 5 and then voting for him after I unvoted without giving any reasons? Are we just going to write that off as playstyle?

Dry, I didn't find it scummy, I just didn't like it. I wasn't asking for your permission to vote you.

I don't believe this for a second. Why point it out otherwise?

[Dry-fit]

I really don't think this game is so hard to understand...

The way Matias replaced out looks town.

@peacebringer: Are you gonna bring a case against me at some point?

The instant something becomes published and available to other players, it instantly becomes outdated because town players will acknowledge it and scum players will avoid it.

This doesn't really happen in practice.

I see now how irrational my whole case against eagle looks. Was too much spur of a moment thing. Nonetheless, he's scum. Of that i am certain.

Why are you certain he's scum? I haven't seen you bring any points against him since this post.

I pointed it out because it would generate information on your slot. You were trying to misrep me by saying I said you were scum for it.

What information were you expecting to get from it?

Also Eagle dodged the question I asked him about Mastin twice.

Vote: 1baldeagle1.

[Dry-fit]

THis question Eagle,

I'm liking mastin's recent posts, he's thinking like a townie, discussing his scumreads and townreads.
UNVOTE:

Is deciding to sheep someone "for better or for worse" thinking like a townie?

[Dry-fit]

TCold I'd still like an answer to this:

I see now how irrational my whole case against eagle looks. Was too much spur of a moment thing. Nonetheless, he's scum. Of that i am certain.

Why are you certain he's scum? I haven't seen you bring any points against him since this post.

@ DryFit - Do you still suspect Mastin?

He's still on my radar but not one of my top two reads. (which are Eagle and TCold.)

Garmr doing that fake daykill on peace moves him up on my scumdar. Even if it's not scum motivated it is antitown.

[Dry-fit]

@Dry-Fit please do explain why it's anti-town. I was even trying to make sure he didn't role claim by outlining that I only wanted reads from him, which he didn't give. And doing something that's not scum motivated moves me up the scumdar is a bit strange. Your still on my town list but your reasoning baffle me.

Because regardless of your intention it's quite likely a player would claim in that position. Particularly a player like peacebringer who appears a bit unstable and has shown he treats roleclaims differently from the average player on site.

[Dry-fit]

@Brian Skies and Dryfit
I'be been thinking, if something is antitown but has absolutely no scum motivation. Why would you give scum points towards it. Is it Not the town win condition to catch scum. To me it seems only scum would latch onto something like that.

Well obviously being antitown is a scum motivation in itself...

@ everyone -

What are your thoughts on Garmr, and his reaction to the pressure I've directed at him? (Keep in mind that he only has two votes on him right now.)

His reactions don't look good. 368 and 381 in particular look like attempts to manufacture what a town reaction is supposed to look like.

@ DryFit -

Please do something to persuade me that you actually think 1be1 is scum and want him lynched today.

Ignoring questions has been one of the most reliable scumtells for me, and Eagle ignored my question about Mastin twice, and then gave what I consider a unsatisfactory answer, saying that he felt Mastin had a protown mindset despite his intention to sheep.

I also asked eagle about this post:

I'm not a fan of Dry's vote on mastin in attempt to revive the wagon when we already got information from it.

Eagle claims he didn't mean to say I was scummy here, but I don't buy it. I asked him why he brought it up then, and he said he brought it up because if I flip my vote could give information. But the same could be said of any vote and there was no need to bring it up now. His explanation for why he pointed it out also appears to differ from what he said when I first questioned him about it:

Dry, I didn't find it scummy, I just didn't like it.

Nothing to do with looking at interactions, just a statement that he didn't like it. His later explanation looks like something he just came up with after the fact.

Also, I'm okay with lynching Gamr, I feel uneasy about that fake daykill like I said earlier.

This looks like feigned concern.

[Dry-fit]

Feigned concern? You obviously missed my other post about Gamr's fake dayvig.

I did see it. The concern you expressed the second time just looked unnatural.

Also, there's a difference between ignoring questions and missing questions. Not sure how that's a scumtell for you.

It's a scumtell because I've observed that players who ignore relevant questions consistently flip scum. Missing questions is possible but you missed my question

twice

and you answered the first part of my post that contained the original question while not answering the mastin part.

We aren't lynching (or vigging) peacebringer. He's clearly town.

[Dry-fit]

I kind of don't know which way is up anymore in this game with eagle and Garmr both flipping town. Pretty sure maenara and dgb are town though.

Sushi bar is unconducive to case writing, however my reasoning is based on 1BE1 being shot, his place on the aero wagon, and his play in general.

Why does 1BE1 being shot implicate Mastin?

1) those kills are from the "I'mma keep the smart players around and try to roll the town anyways because I'm awesome" school of thinking

Which players in this game do you think are most likely to have that mindset?

Maenara where does you suspicion of Banksys come from?

My top scumreads at the moment are mastin and TCold. Banksys isn't a terrible choice though.

Vote: TCold.

[Dry-fit]

It really does seem like mastin is avoiding this thread though.

[Dry-fit]

That explains your actions a bit I guess mastin. One of the things that felt off about you was your exaggerated skepticism about maenara's claim. I'm eagerly awaiting your result.

[Dry-fit]

Dry-Fit - Why were you so convinced PB was town?

Mainly the vt claim when he was fake daykilled. It looked genuine to me.

[Dry-fit]

It really does seem like mastin is avoiding this thread though.

I am seriously wondering if the scum made a comment in their QT during the night along the lines of, "Mastin's not posting here...wonder why?"

What happened was I saw that you had made the most recent post in New York and assumed that meant you were currently on, not realizing how inactive that forum is.

I want to hear why TCold is town mastin. (Brian probably is scum though)

[Dry-fit]

OMG! I laughed so hard. I forgot TCold was even in this game. I feel like we're both stranded on the same lonely island wondering what the heck has been going on this game.

Actually I forgot about this. This made me feel like Brian and TCold aren't partners. Maybe you're right after all mastin

[Dry-fit]

Iso'd Dry-fit. Interesting note: Dry-fit mentions most players multiple times. But there's a grand total of one mention of Brian Skies (okay, until his last post, bumping it up to two), and no mentions AT ALL for Magua/Slandaar. And even then, they're throwaways.

I'm fairly certain he interacts with every other player more than those two.

I haven't interacted with ABR all game. I've only mentioned banksys in one post. Slandaar was one of the less actie posters and nothing he said caught my interest.

Maenara why do you suspect me all of a sudden? You had me as one of your top town reads.

[Dry-fit]

Recall what I said earlier, which is that both Mastin and I saw scum do that on another website in a game that ended just about a week ago. It was quite spectacular and I haven't seen anyone do that here. It was common enough on other mafia websites that many players suspected the claim at once. It's like a super-bus: one that is supposed to CLEAR one buddy, not just give him fickle and reversible town cred.

Scum claims some sort of cop, claims a guilty on a buddy, presumably they draw doc-protection and make it to endgame. At least that would be the theory.

I've actually seen this happen on site.

Dry do you have anything like a case? Or you just tunneling my pred for the he double hockey sticks of it?

I'm currently in the process of rethinking my stance on your slot. I wouldn't say I'm tunneling, I made one post this game day before mastin announced that he had a guilty result. I just didn't see any point in taking my vote off.

No, think about it. Slandaar/Magua has been one of the strongest

town

null slots in the game. Mastin is one of the scummiest. He's on a suicide mission.

Fixed this for you.

Seriously while it's possible mastin is taking a 1v1 to get another mislynch along I don't buy it at this point in the game. Mastin was under no real pressure and if he loses the 1v1 it's just a disaster for his team.

If Magua is an SK, the mob will kill him.

If he's part of the mob, the SK will kill him.

Why would scum kill Magua when we have no choice but to lynch him eventually? Scum would just be losing out on a lynch being used on someone not in their faction.

Unvote. Vote: Magua.

[Dry-fit]

Yeah alright. I'm okay with this. I'd say something more useful, but honestly? At this point, pretty much everyone but DGB seems okay with the idea of me being town, so I'm not getting lynched by this, and right now, play has moved to a level where I legitimately don't have anything useful to add, and I can learn more by shutting up, reading and sheeping.

You do have something useful to add: a vote for Magua. Seriously we probably only have one mislynch we can't mess this up.

[Dry-fit]

It's really tempting to call Brian Skies town here, because screw it, I've gone out on a limb to keep him from the noose so why the hell not just say he's town.
But you know why? Because it's also incredibly tempting to put DBG into scum, because she's doing the exact same damn thing as she did off-site. Ignoring me, tunneling on me, THINKING THAT I AS SCUM WOULD ACT A WAY THAT I MAKE EXPLICIT IS NOT MY MODUS OPERANDI, and basically, not trusting me. Not believing me. Coming up with convoluted ideas to make me scum when she should know the much simpler explanation is that I am town.

The only reason I haven't is because she's DGB and I know she can be that bull-headed as town.

I can easily see Brian as scum here. Not being on your lynch wagon would buy him a ton of towncred, and it's not at all unlikely that your lynch will go through without him. Also, Magua is dead no matter what.

I'm thinking it's Magua, ABR, and Brian.

Maenara is the wild card. She's been town for most of the game, but her vote mastin vote is inexplicable. Maenara is a layer who highly values logic, but she's voting you despite you being scum makes considerably less sense,

and she hasn't given any reasoning for her vote even when asked.

[Dry-fit]

I can easily see Brian as scum here. Not being on your lynch wagon would buy him a ton of towncred, and it's not at all unlikely that your lynch will go through without him. Also, Magua is dead no matter what.

You realize that everything you just said here applies to yourself, right?

Yes. But obviously there can be both town and scum motivations for being on the right wagon right now.

[Dry-fit]

Maenara is a player who highly values logic, but she's voting you despite you being scum makes considerably less sense

You're saying that Maenara is voting Mastin despite Mastin being scum...? Was that a slip?

It should say "making." As in the view that mastin is scum makes less sense.

[Dry-fit]

Maenara is a player who highly values logic, but she's voting you despite you being scum makes considerably less sense

Make that sentence make sense, because it doesn't.

Putting it more clearly would be:

Maenara is a player who highly values logic, but she's voting you despite the fact that the view that mastin is scum makes considerably less sense than the view that Magua is scum.

Since when have I ever valued logic outside of, y'know, my maths lectures?

Well, that's my impression of you as a player.

[Dry-fit]

All of Magua's pre-JOAT claim content posts look town. After the claim, he got dragged into the mud with you, and came out on top. Stop making this matter, it doesn't matter who gets lynched first, it will just make re-reads more difficult the more we post.

Losing what's likely our only mislynch doesn't matter? Really?

Why does it make more sense for Magua to be scum than Mastin? Have you been reading his posts?

I still don't know what mastin's scum motivation for faking this guilty would be. It's not like he was in any danger of getting lynched. It's also hard to imagine mastin set up all those breadcrumbs.

Dry what happened to your scum read on Tcold (now me)?

As I said I'll need to reevaluate your slot. That'll happen during night. But today's events make the believe the scumteam is Magua, ABR, Brian Skies.

[Dry-fit]

I believe your claim Rach, but why did you feel the need to claim?

I really have no idea what the mafia is doing with these kills...

We should be lynching Brian or Banksys today.

[Dry-fit]

Banksys I'd love to know how you came to conclude that
1. I am not a VT
and
2. I am not a pr.

[Dry-fit]

Brian, your reasoning is nonsensical. It essentially boils down to the fact that I've been on the wrong wagons. How come, exactly, that you're allowed the excuse of incompetence and I'm not?

But fine, you can be town for now. Dry-Fit, on the other hand, remains scummy.

VOTE: Dry-Fit

Ouuuu this post is scummy.

You haven't given a reason that I'm scummy yet Mae.

Gonna get a reread in and post more later.

[Dry-fit]

Alright after my reread I'm convinced that one but not both of banksys/Brian is scum. More on that later, but first the other players.

Rach: Not at all entertaining the possibility that Rach is scum at this point. It should be pretty obvious why but ask if you want to know.

DGB: Peace's play remains town on that reread. I still don't see any real scum motivation for claiming vt after the fake daykill. DBG's play is problematic for several reasons, but still seems town.

Archaebob: Banakai's posting looked very town to me. It clearly came from the perspective of someone genuinely curious about who the scum is. Bob's take on the mastin situation yesterday was in line with my thinking. Town.

Maenara: Maenara has been coasting and making no effort whatsoever to explain her cases. But I have a hard time believing a fake miller claim in this case. Is it really your first thought on replacing into a game and receiving a scum pm, "Oh maybe I'll try claiming miller?" It's an extremely risky play, and I'd think you'd want to discuss it beforehand with your buddies, but Maenara didn't get that chance. She has claimed miller as scum before, but in what capacity? As SK, when no one else would be taking on the risk of her actions. Surprisingly, town.

Now that leaves Banksys and Brian.

Banksys:

I want a Mastin lynch more than I want a Magua lynch. His flip will yield significant information on several players whom I am highly interested in.

This isn't the mindset a town player should be having at this stage of the game. Getting that lynch right could have been extremely important for town's chances in the game. Yeah it turns out we had a vig to take out Magua at night, but relying on that was making HUGE assumptions about the setup. And even as it was vig would have still had her shot to potentially take out another scum. And scum's hand on the nightkill choice would have been forced or they would be leaving an all but confirmed town pr alive in mastin. "Yielding information" pales in comparison to these considerations.

Oh, and Garmr and ABR both suspected Banksys.

Brian: I believe Brian when he says he was ready to push an ABR lynch today. I don't think he would have given much consideration to killing him as scum. In fact his play this game day in general has been good.

Vote: Banksys Flareon.

I'm wrong about one of Bob, Maenara, and DGB. But that's for later.

[Dry-fit]

You think Banksy's play regarding Mastin's gambit is scummier than DGB or Maenara because....?
And you think Banksy's play in general this game is scummier than DGB or Maenara because...?

Also, is there a reason why you casually omit the part about Banksy's stating she was okay with changing her vote to Magua around the time Rach decided to hammer?

-I explained my townreads on DGB and Maenara. Yes Banksys hedged he vote by saying she was willing to vote Magua if she had to. What scum wouldn't? And by the way, that was right after a bolded "Confirm Vote: Mastin".
-DGB and Maenara didn't justify voting for mastin to get "information," something no townie in their right mind should factor into the decision in that situation.

[Dry-fit]

Then he gets on the Magua wagon, which is the safest possible place for scum. ABR (town) was leading the Mastin wagon, and then the scum killed him. That means they weren't afraid of any pressure on the remaining members. Now maybe there was one there, but ABR's death really narrows down the remaining candidates since he was the leader. Dry-fit would be very safe hanging out on his doomed-anyway partner's wagon, soaking up town cred.[/quote]
Yeah, because only scum votes for scum. Right.

In #851 he sheeps Mastin reads (seriously, he has mentioned me one time previously and has a super waffly stance on Brian). When the fuck did we become your top lynch candidates? Oh right, when Mastin said so.

You became a top suspect after ABR flipped town. You weren't even mastin's top reads. You were tied for fourth:

My most scummy to least scummy list is something like this:

Magua-ABR-Maenara-Banksys/Brian (not both)-DGB. Other names not on my lynchlist. Dry-fit's posting could be scum, but I don't think so anymore.

Garmr, sure. ABR was after archaebob before me, and by his own admission was getting ready to blow up the thread about it. Assuming town-archaebob, something I suspect you know, don't you think scum would have enjoyed letting that dominate the thread?

As you said, everyone else had a townread on Archaebob. ABR would have had a tough time lynching him. But you? Oh, I'm sure he could have gotten you lynched.

So, you're reading PB as town when his greatest contribution to this game was a war against Slandaar (who flipped scum) over the use of a smiley face? As for the VT claim, how is that any more town-motivated than scum-motivated? You say DGB's play is problematic. For what reasons? What about his play is town?

Town reads don't always come from good play. Bad plays can be obvtown. For example, the way mastin outted his guilty was suboptimal. Mastin admitted this himself. But I could tell he was town because

there was no scum motivation

for mastin to put himself in that position. Likewise, peace's vt claim was a bad play, but scum aren't likely to make it, because it locks them into a claim early for no reason. The problem with DGB's play is mostly the mastin stuff that you pointed out.

So you're letting yourself be blinded by one action rather than seeing the player's actions as a whole? And once again, Banksy's wasn't against voting for Magua.

I don't know why you're having so much trouble with this. Scum knew they were getting away with one getting mastin lynched. Of course they would hedge and allow themselves to move back to Magua if things fell apart. It's the way you would expect scum to push that mislynch.

Also lol at Banksys making a huge case on me and being convinced I'm scum to voting DGB for little stated reason.

[Dry-fit]

@Dry-fit: Reasons to vote DGB are equally compelling and require less explanation. Also, her lynch is currently more feasible given that she is at L-1.

More like requires no explanation...

Rach we really need you in here.

[Dry-fit]

This is why we need Rach in here. No one can agree on who's scum...

I'm wrong about one of Bob, Maenara, and DGB. But that's for later.

Explain. Also, why not pursue this now?

I'm assuming three scum in this game. Based on process of elimination I'm sure one of you and Banksys is scum. I have townreads on all the other players. Interactions between you two on previous days suggested to me that you're not partners. Your interactions today though are making me doubt that. Why not pursue those three today? Well of course a 1 in 2 chance is better than a 1 in 3 chance.

@Dry-Fit: I think you're currently more likely to be scum than the others. Feel free to convince otherwise if you're town.

Well there's not really all that much I can do really. You seem to be concerned about my reads on DGB and Maenara. I've explained them in thread several times. You admit you aren't sure if Maenara is scum or not, so I'm really not sure why you have so much trouble with that. I consider Banksys someone who helped drive the mastin wagon, but you don't seem to want to accept that

[Dry-fit]

DGB is at L-1 in case you missed it.

Or I can just push a lynch on obvscum. Your sudden bus of Banksys feels forced and fake here. I can deal with it more after your flip.

Are we reading the same game? I've been trying to lynch Banksys FOREVER, to no avail.

I'm on to my second biggest scum read.

I'll return on Banksys in a heartbeat if there is a will.

Banksys currently has two votes, while you were the only person voting Brian or Maenara...

[Dry-fit]

Alright. Well you can be sure that if I was partners with DGB there would be no way in

hell

she wouldn't have known that peace claimed vt. The same goes for Archaebob, so he's not scum either.

VOTE: PeaceBringer.

He is either scum or playing against his win condition. The latter is a breach of site rules. As adherence to rules is to be assumed, he's scum.

Okay, seeing as every other solution apparently causes the game to implode in a shower of drama, can we just policy lynch PB now, then? I was against it before, but it looks like the only alternative. It'll be quick, relatively painless, and we'll all be able to move on with our lives/games.

These quotes aren't coming from peace's buddy.

Brian would have been bussing too hard to be DGB's buddy.

So that leaves Banksys.

Vote: Banksys Flareon.

[Dry-fit]

Alright. Well you can be sure that if I was partners with DGB there would be no way in

hell

she wouldn't have known that peace claimed vt. The same goes for Archaebob, so he's not scum either.

Walk me the through the logic here.

Peacebringer claimed vt day 1:

Perfectly fine with being daykilled though. Nothing to add as just town.

Bob and I both noticed this. If I was DGB's buddy I would have absolutely made her aware that Peace claimed vt during night. But the fact that DGB claimed doctor yesterday proves she wasn't aware of that claim. And when she claimed doc, it was still a point in the day when Banksys could have been the day's lynch, so it wasn't trolling.

DGB's claim was obviously a last ditch survival gambit. The previous vt claim is almost entirely irrelevant.

That's my whole point. DGB couldn't legitimately use that claim as a last ditch effort because Bob and I

had already pointed it out several time.

It was a scumslip. A slip that would never have happened if I was her partner.

Don't anyone dare hammer until Brian gets in here.

[Dry-fit]

Good job responding to what I said.

Last ditch gambits are last ditch gambits. Rach declared intent to hammer, so I think it was pretty clear what was about to go down.

If you're going to do a last ditch gambit, you can do better than claiming scum. trying to talk Rach out of it was her best option.

But I just realized Banksys being DGB's partner actually doesn't make sense.

Unvote.

I'm really confused here.

[Dry-fit]

I'm a Vanilla Townie.

@ DryFit -

Why doesn't DGB/Banksys make sense to you?

Well maybe it was premature to say it doesn't. But what I was thinking was that DGB was put up an awfully big fight to stay alive at the end of the day yesterday if Banksys was her partner. It's true she could have been hoping someone other than the two of them would end up getting lynched or that she wanted to keep Banksys alive because she's a pr, but it's causing me to have doubts.

As for suspicions, I can't see Brian as scum at this point.

I think it's Maenara or Banksys right now. I need to sort out which. Maenara's interactions with Peace D1 don't seem to make sense from a buddy, but the rest of her play makes sense for scum.

[Dry-fit]

Well to be honest here I really don't know who is scum. It's not Brian. Bussed DGB too hardcore and softclaimed his pr like a champ in a way I think would be unlikely fo him to do as scum.

I would lean toward it being Banksys, but it's not strong.

Honestly I'm shocked I wasn't lynched day 3.

[Dry-fit]

The modding of the game was good. I didn't think peace needed to be replaced but the answer wouldn't be modkilling/replacing Albert and Bob. Jake did the right thing to try and get things sorted out.

Good game everyone. It was interesting and very competitive! And damn it Banksys I had you!