Mini 1532: Mac's Mini Normal - GAME OVER~

[hayatoBL]

Hi everyone,

Sorry for the delay. Been busy in RL. Will do some reading and give my reads.

[hayatoBL]

That’s a lot of players. I’m used to play in a 9-player setup. This is really something else.

Interactions between RCow, ICE and MME seems to be the main focus. I dislike how RCow gives reasons on why pieguy might be scum, then vote for Ice.

I placed my vote for something else and I realized pie-ice afterwards, but it's good to see I'm not the only one.

What was the something else?

Also - about this pie-ice connection. Are y'all voting him because he voted away from pie immediately following two votes for pie, as a sort of attempt to de-rail that "wagon," or something else? Because if that's the case, given RVS, I don't really see that as suspicious. If I'm missing the point, though, please clarify.

And who the hell is Annie?

Pie claimed three scumreads in the reads list. Two of them were OMGUSes, whatever. I do that in RVS.

One of them wasn't, and was on IceNinja. This suggests a legitimate scumread, which would be the one worthy of a vote, and yet the vote went on to one of the random people

That doesn't add up.

I don’t like this post either.

Pie is his partner btw.

That associative tell was the reason I placed that vote.

@RCow
Why is the vote on Ice but not on Pie, who is according to your theory bussing her scum partner?

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

@Ice
Why is Annie(RCow) obvtown?
Live outside US. Post normally around this hour. May vary.

[hayatoBL]

Questions that I would like answered:

@SoS

I don't think of meta as something that requires the same circumstances.

I think of it as insight into how they see themselves and how they approach and interact with others

. You riled yourself up before posting, You let your frustration from the site being down seep into your words and I'm curious as to the motivation behind that.

Agree with the bolded.

Re frustration, I'm pretty annoyed at how many games I need to catch up on today so I can kinda relate.

How can you suddenly have more games to catch up to, when everyone else was experiencing the same downtime?

@Flameaxe

Everyone:

Are you town?

Thanks for your answer. I'll be sitting here until we're done petty bullshit like meta and answers we know the answers to already. We need less of that and more votes on Me Fisto.

I don’t see anything wrong with Mephis. Instead of sitting there, why not elaborate on your reads on Mephis. I'm town.

@MME
It's not that I don't like meta-reads, but it's hard to convince others with meta-reasoning. How am I(or other players) suppose to be convinced of your reads and help you lynch ICE? I haven't played with him. Why not let go of that for now, understand my reasoning for voting MCow and help me push her wagon instead? .

[hayatoBL]

@Flame

@Heyato His votes are bad and should feel bad. On that note, be less vapid. Your reasoning for voting RCow isn't all that great either. That tell doesn't exactly make either pie or ice more likely to be scum than the other. I don't disagree with the tell, so I don't have any intention of following you. It just isn't a tell against one or the other, so you jumping on it just seems like

you could have jumped on it no matter which way the wagon fell.

The washy, its wishy.

@Rememberance: E-E-K.

I’m voting on RC, because she voted on ICE, while the source of the alignment-tell was Pie, not ICE. If she had voted Pie, this argument of mine would not exist in the first place. So, I couldn't have just jumped on RC which way the wagon fell.

She CAN comfortably vote on any of the two (ICE & Pie), but I don’t think town-RC would have done that.

@RC

Pie made a weird associative tell with IceNinja, which is only meaningful if both are scum.

Therefore, I can comfortably vote either.

Yet, the way I see it, voting for Pie at that time would put three votes on Pie on page 1. A feat, which might draw suspicion towards you. I think, you’re trying to avoid doing that.

Voting Pieguyn would put him on alert and make it harder to get tells from him. Voting IceNinja allows me to gauge Pie's reaction without risking him shutting down, which is a common town reaction to D1 pressure.

I’m not really feeling this. If Ice and Pie were scum partners, you mentioning your suspicions would already put both of them on alert regardless where you put your vote.

Do you really believe, that if we have a Pie-Ice-scum-partnership in this game, scum-Pie would start the game with post 15?

This is what I think. If you're scum, you're just trying to sit still on a case that you've made up. If you're town, then I'm finding hard to feel your convictions with this Ice-Pie-partner theory.

[hayatoBL]

@Pie
Why exactly did you FOS ICE on post 15?


@ICENinja

@Ice
Why is Annie(RCow) obvtown?

Why was RC obvtown to you at that time? Post 14

And is RC still obvtown to you right now?

[hayatoBL]

^Which posts do you think I didn't read?

[hayatoBL]

@Rem

@ Mod, I'd like to be replaced.

My connection with this website is in and out, and too many peoples to track. I'm going to do another noob game.

@Hayato, what do you think of this post?

It’s about WBO asking to be replaced because 13 players are too much for him. Nothing above the ordinary there. What are you getting from it?

Meanwhile…

What’s up with the Memphis vote? You didn’t include any reasoning for your vote at that time. I thought, there was more at play.

[hayatoBL]

@frog

Hi. Thanks for replacing.

Hayato's 78 and 81 annoy me as the first post he seems to be latching onto Cowbells for pushing a lynch on one of his scumreads and not the other, and 81's questions (how can you have more games to catch up on, honestly) and the discounting of meta don't really add to what's going on (if anything they detract from hunting as he's making up silly issues to distract us with).

Post 78 was already fortified by my less-annoying post 139. Even if an association-tell should allow her to vote either one (ICE or Pie), I don’t see how town would pick ICE at that point, not Pie. Her new posts doesn’t improves my reads on her. She suddenly became “convinced” by an awful reaction from Pie.

Annoying question 81 is to check SoS’s empathy on ICE’s frustrations, whether it’s real or made up. Rem understood my intentions behind that question. Ref : 85

I am not against meta’ing. Quite the opposite. I think meta’ing is a powerful tool. However, in MME case, it seems to gives him an excuse to stay his vote on ICE. Meta reads are hard to disprove, unless you’ve also played with the player being meta’ed. No one can really argue with MME’s meta-argument unless he/she has experience playing with ICE. I wanted to see if MME decides to stubbornly remain his vote on ICE or pursue a different case, knowing that his meta-case isn’t strong enough to convince others.

Distracting? Silly issues? I’m proposing a real case, instead of waiting around doing nothing. How sure of you, that the available cases that we have are on the right track, that you would say my case is only a distraction?

[hayatoBL]

@Rem

A town-read from that?

^

What’s up with the Memphis vote? You didn’t include any reasoning for your vote at that time. I thought, there was more at play.

[hayatoBL]

I'm sorry everyone. I wanted to post something before Christmas, but had a lot of things to prepare.
We're going for a family trip so:

@Mod : V/LA until 26th. Will catch up after that.

Merry Christmas everybody!

[hayatoBL]

Hey. It's pretty quiet during the holiday.

Catching up....

[hayatoBL]

Even if an association-tell should allow her to vote either one (ICE or Pie), I don’t see how town would pick ICE at that point, not Pie.

(Since I never really replied to this while dealing with ICE's missing brain functions)

Here you’re taking a version of my argument, which conveniently fits your accusation, when you could have taken this one:

“I’m voting on RC, because she voted on ICE, while the source of the alignment-tell was Pie, not ICE.”

139

You keep saying this, and its becoming more and more clear that no one else is following your mental path. You haven't fortified anything, you're just regurgitating the same thing over and over pretending that it sounds more official every time you do.

I’m regurgitating the same thing because you and frog were questioning me the same thing. My intention was not for it to sound more official, rather I’m trying to word it better, so you people can better understand.

The tell directly pointed to both players being scum. Basing a case around the fact that RC went one was and not the other isn't going to convince anyone. As I (and at least one other person) have pointed out, the tell isn't indicative of one person being scum over the other. Like I said before, if the votes ended up Pie's way, you could have been playing this wagon the exact same way with names reversed.

It doesn’t and you’re making false accusations. I have proof. Take the above statement in bold. I’ll reverse the name.

“I’m voting on RC, because she voted on Pie, while the source of the alignment-tell was ICE, not Pie.”

Yet, the source of alignment-tell was Pie, not Ice. Thus, the above statement doesn’t make sense. Conclusion: I couldn’t have reversed it.

I don't give two shits if you say you wouldn't have, no part of your reasoning is exclusive to the situation at hand. What is your opinion on ICE regarding that same tell?

This question isn’t clear and I would like you to rephrase it. But I’ll answer according to how I’ve interpreted it.

Regarding that tell, ICE could have fit in regardless of any alignment. RC could have bus scum-ICE, her scum partner or simply voted on town-ICE. Regardless of ICE’s alignment RC avoids from putting a serious vote on an already-moving-wagon.

Not to answer for frog, but the last part is related to your posting outside of your "real case". He never said your "case" was a distraction.

I misunderstood.

[hayatoBL]

@frog

Most of your questions are already answered.

@Hayato, some things don't fly with me:

Even if an association-tell should allow her to vote either one (ICE or Pie),

I don’t see how town would pick ICE at that point, not Pie

. Her new posts doesn’t improves my reads on her. She suddenly became “convinced” by an awful reaction from Pie.

I've likely got the wrong end of the stick here, but it appears you don't like how he chose one over the other, though choice is inevitable in this case0 Flameaxe has it exactly right in #175; you could reverse the names and the case would be the same. In any case, I'd like to know why the vote is odd, not just that you think it is odd.

Answered Post 139. See @Flame.

About the #81 issue, I don't think the questions contained within are of particular worth to us, given that they hold little relevance (catching up should be expected after downtime, this doesn't need anything more than a nod) and such questions could have been replaced with more substantial ones. It looks to me like a lot of filler questions are being asked for their own sake, i.e false content. I don't see any case in #78 or #81. Here are two silly issues:

How can you suddenly have more games to catch up to, when everyone else was experiencing the same downtime?

Does this really matter?

Answered this one too. 173

Why is the vote on Ice but not on Pie, who is according to your theory bussing her scum partner?

Vote is on one of the two he reads as scum, so again, what's so bad about it?

See above.

Why is Annie(RCow) obvtown?

So let's go back to RVS and analyse something that could easily have been a joke?

At first, I saw it as a joke. But seeing later, that ICE turns his suspicion on MME but not RC, made me wonder, if the post 14 was actually serious. Thus, I question it.

And we're now on post #78? Isn't there better stuff to look at?

You have, in time, brought up helpful issues, but I am 'pretty sure' none of these questions are remotely helpful. These are what I call the distractions.

I admit, the issues I presented lead me to dead ends. But I couldn’t have known where it would lead me if I didn’t asked those questions. With more loose ends tied up, I’m hoping to follow the right track.

And about the RC case, both you and Flame (and RC apparently) ignored my follow-up case and focused only on my initial case. Post 139. See @RC.

[hayatoBL]

@don

Interact with me please.

vote: ICE

we're getting off topic. ICE

is

twisting eek's words. ICE did have a scummy reaction to eek's pressure. none of this has anything to do with meta. meta is nothing more than a tool.

someone asked if my first vote was serious. no. I read to the bottom of page one and rvs'd. then when I hit submit I realized there were more pages. if this issue is fixed, I should be able to keep up from here. my access has been random for the last few days and my kid started using my pc for gaming as well, so I'm on shrared time and don't phone post anymore.

Your vote on Ice is because ICE attempted to twist MME’s words. Here are the posts:

Regardless of my meta read making sense or being true or not, I don't like his reaction one bit.

This makes me even more suspicious. This is basically saying "regardless of bullshit reasons I had before, I'm

actually

suspicious now". I feel like this is too early for confirmation bias to be setting in, unless he was just REALLY paranoid of my scum play, looks like he's trying to find reasons to leave a vote on me.

Now had he come in and said "Alright that was a reaction test there wasn't any parallel and because of ____ reason I find his reaction scummy" that would look like town play scum hunting. This isn't that.

Scummy scum scum.

Couldn’t ICE have misinterpreted MME’s post and thus answered in that manner?


You claimed in this post that your convictions strengthened by ICE’s attack on Flame.

actually, now that I think about it, the attack on flameaxe probably strengthens my conviction a little. its pretty easy to attack a guy who is acting like a jerk. but imo, ad hom =/= scummy. it really depends on the context. I think remembrance spoke on that earlier. however, when you're building a case against someone(especially on day 1 with such a large pool of players) pushing against someone who is acting like an asshole is a good strategy as it is easier to convince others to lynch them. so yeah.

Does attacking a person who is acting like a jerk makes him (the attacking player) scummy?

If no, then how does ICE’s attack on Flame strengthen your convictions?

Look at this post.

can someone explain the case on pie?

right now I'm liking hayato for scumbuddy. but that's just me.

Just so that I know you’re not just saying things, which posts gives you the idea that I’m ICE’s scum-buddy?

[hayatoBL]

@Pie

I’ve pretty much guessed that that was a reaction test. However:

The reliability of the test.

So, based on two similar test, which you did on those other games, you concluded that anyone who over-reacted to THE LIST would probably be scum.

But you have to admit, two isn’t a great number to allow yourself to trust on the reaction test. More reasons that you shouldn’t be too confident about your reaction test is because you have no logic reasoning to support them. I think you’ve even admitted it.

Conclusion: the test is weak.

The seriousness of the list.

You’ve mentioned at some point, you randomly put on THE LIST who is scum and thus THE LIST wasn’t a serious post. Even if it really was random (I can’t prove that you’re just saying it random after the fact, but neither can you disprove that it wasn’t random) , people could easily interpret THE LIST as not being random. Both SoS and Meph voted for you, and you put both of them on THE LIST.

Conclusion: People should be allowed to take THE LIST seriously. (even if you claim it to be random)

Combined both conclusions, I conclude your initial reasoning to vote on frog is weak, which is because he failed the test.

Reading my above argument, would you still consider your test a good one?

If not, you should try again.

[hayatoBL]

I am very busy, but I’m still interested to play. I promise will make up for it tomorrow. In other words, /proddodge.

[hayatoBL]

@Hayato: Thanks for 271, your logic is sound and I did miss some of your answers. You're quite correct.

Town points for dropping a case. Scum likes to look busy. Scum-frog wouldn’t drop my case so easily. Might be buddying but I don't think that’s it.

[hayatoBL]

It doesn’t and you’re making false accusations. I have proof. Take the above statement in bold. I’ll reverse the name.

“I’m voting on RC, because she voted on Pie, while the source of the alignment-tell was ICE, not Pie.”

Yet, the source of alignment-tell was Pie, not Ice. Thus, the above statement doesn’t make sense. Conclusion: I couldn’t have reversed it.

I can't tell if you're actually trying to be this dense or not.

The tell from a definition standpoint points to both players being scum, without one over the other. It doesn't matter who the source of the tell was. And thanks for taking my point literally and just switching the names in one of your posts. Thats really helpful and really shows you understand any of the concern anyone has with your so-called case. I just can't see how anyone in their right mind can see someone point out a tell that negatively paints two players, votes one of those two players, but NOT THE RIGHT ONE, and find it scummy.

PS: Pointing to your own post and saying it is proof of intent only shows how out of touch you are with this argument, and how mind-reading works (it doesn't).

You're trying really hard to defend a horrendously weak point on a horrendously weak vote.

Regarding that tell, ICE could have fit in regardless of any alignment

And now I understand where your lack of understanding comes from.

Well, our discussion has went a full circle. You finally voted for me, like you said you would.

Debating with you is very tiresome. I don’t mind the insults. I guess it’s your personality, but if you could include more contents between those insults we could have moved things forward in a quicker pace.

With that said, I would like a full statement of your points against me.

What have I done after 214, to earn enough scum points that my scuminess outweighed Mephis’?

And where does my lack of understanding comes from?

[hayatoBL]

@Rem

Aegor

Aegor’s vote on MME was good. His FOS on RC was good. Town points for trying to get involved in that Pie/frog case. His early games seems townish enough. But something doesn’t fly with me (regarding MME). Needs further questioning. Until then, town.

Mephis

His choice of person to vote is IMO not bad. Mephis’ case on Rem and ICE were valid. I see no problem with his cases. But with too few post to work on, I can’t make a strong read. But he’s slightly leaning town.

[hayatoBL]

@don

Interact with me please.

ok.

Your vote on Ice is because ICE attempted to twist MME’s words.

no. because he

did

twist eeks words.

Sorry. My bad.

Couldn’t ICE have misinterpreted MME’s post and thus answered in that manner?

and what reason do you have to give ICE the benefit of the doubt in this situation?

Let’s answer a question with a statement next time. I take that as a “Yes, he could have”. Any objections?

Answering your question: Because town don’t know and thus should doubt.

Let’s take a look at this post.

Regardless of my meta read making sense or being true or not, I don't like his reaction one bit.

This makes me even more suspicious. This is basically saying "regardless of bullshit reasons I had before, I'm

actually

suspicious now". I feel like this is too early for confirmation bias to be setting in, unless he was just REALLY paranoid of my scum play, looks like he's trying to find reasons to leave a vote on me.

Now had he come in and said "Alright that was a reaction test there wasn't any parallel and because of ____ reason I find his reaction scummy" that would look like town play scum hunting. This isn't that.

Scummy scum scum.

Looking at this post I could make three different theories.
a) Scum-ICE twisting MME’s words in order to put a vote on him.
b) Null-ICE misunderstood MME’s words.
c) Town-ICE understood MME’s words correctly, which results in Scum-MME backpedalling on his next post, accusing ICE of twisting words.

Your case fits, though I’m wondering whether you’ve thought of alternate theories.

Town wants to figure out who is scum. Figuring out who scum is, includes thinking of alternate theories and thinking which of those theories is likely to be true.

Scum just wants to vote on someone and wait for people to point out his weak vote. Scum knows already who is town and have no need to think of alternate theories.

So, look at the post again, look at the theories and tell me if you land on the same conclusion.

Does attacking a person who is acting like a jerk makes him (the attacking player) scummy?

in some cases, yes. in others, no. in this case, it appears to me as a diversion attempt. an easy way for ICE to push attention away from himself. attacking the "jerk" is similar to attacking the "weakest player" the "noob" or the "lurker". its an easy way out. not necessarily scummy in and of itself, but when combined with other factors, it can certainly help solidify a scumread on someone.

Ok. This is a good one..

Just so that I know you’re not just saying things, which posts gives you the idea that I’m ICE’s scum-buddy?

all of the posts in which you defend and/or make excuses for ICE's play. including this one.

I see how you can come to this. Though, I never intended to defend ICE. It’s just that the cases which I find weak were coincidentally directed towards ICE.

[hayatoBL]

@ICE

Your early cases are good. MME, Pie, Flameaxe. But I disagree with your vote on SoS and TV. I’m against voting on lurky players on D1.

I have town-read on you. Scum-ICE could have stayed longer on Pie’s wagon without arousing suspicion. Yet you stayed there for only one post and changed your target immediately to Flame. I think scum would have stayed longer on that Pie-wagon.

My town-read on you has nothing to do with what you saw as defending you though.

[hayatoBL]

@Aegor

@Hayato, why is your vote still on RC and not someone else.

Because I’d like RC to get lynched today. Do you think RC is town? And why?

MME: Downgraded to null. This could swing either way depending on the promised weekend update.

Since your vote on MME, he haven’t posted anything which could have lead you to your change in reads on him.
What lead you to downgrade MME to null?

[hayatoBL]

Hey Hayato, let's all make a deal.

How about you guys lynch me today, then when I flip town you and Iceninja are autolynched on the following two days.

Are you up for it?

No thanks.

[hayatoBL]

@Everyone

Happy new year everyone.

It’s too early to make a compromise lynch. The replacement hasn’t come yet and I’m sure Mac will give another couple of days to allow those replacements to read and settle.

I know I have the latest join-date and comparing to all of you, I lack the experience. I don’t mind being disagreed with or being told that my argument is weak, but to be ignored is really frustrating.

Jon and Aegor, some of my posts need your response.

So, another post about RC might bore you. But, I have the feeling that people were ignoring my posts because I’m new (or perhaps my arguments were really BS). Flameaxe, Ice and frog were the few people who responded to my case.

Call me stubborn. But, in two of my other town-games, scum were in my hands, yet, I wasn’t convincing enough to lynch them. I’m weak in convincing others.

Though, I know I might be wrong about RC, but at least I won’t regret post-game not pushing my case properly.

I’ll try to organize my arguments properly. The least you can do is read it. No need to agree with it, just read it. Coming up…

[hayatoBL]

Here goes.

I suspect RadiantCowbells because:

1) Chose ICE, while Pie was the one who emitted the alignment-tell.

Pie posted 15, after which RC was convinced that Pie and ICE are scum-partners. In that post, Pie labelled three players as mafia, SoS, Meph and Ice. SoS and Meph RVS voted Pie, but Ice didn’t and thus that post is weird and looked suspicious. It could be seen as an allignment-tell, but Pie was the one who posted that suspicious post, not ICE.

But why vote ICE? If RC was wrong about ICE-Pie being partners, at least he could be right about Pie, who made the suspicious post. His vote should be on Pie.

When questioned about that, RC replied with:

Voting Pieguyn would put him on alert and make it harder to get tells from him. Voting IceNinja allows me to gauge Pie's reaction without risking him shutting down, which is a common town reaction to D1 pressure.

Two theories:

Either town-RC voted ICE to gauge reactions like he said

OR

Scum-RC voted ICE to avoid putting a serious vote on an already-moving-wagon which is Pie’s.

And notice how, by doing that RC ended RVS and gets town-cred? That's what RC was aiming for, I think.


2) Overly convinced about Pie-Ice being partners.

I’m OK with that being an early case. But still convinced about not one but TWO players being scum beause of a list….really??? Come on...



3) Stalling

Please ISO Radiant and look from 20th Dec until now. Point to me a post where he did any scum-hunting. RC’s behaviour matches a scum-partner of mine in another game. He knew, that no one is suspecting him, he got too comfortable and did nothing. This mirrored RC exactly. I’m sure he would behave differently, if he was pressured with multiple votes on him.

He ignored my vote and my case on 139.


His deal on post 359 is clearly a bluff. He knew, I can’t decide for all of you. Even if I were to accept that deal, he knew you people won’t agree to that. His deal is a way of saying “I’m town because I’m not afraid of getting lynched to prove it”.

Why would town self-sacrifice himself, to get two other might-be-town (me and ICE in his perspective) lynched, when he could provide arguments to try and get us lynched? No. RC has no intention for the deal to happen. He's just saying that.

Conclusion: That deal is a bluff.

And no I’m not accepting that kind of deal. It's anti-town. Letting other scum to vote us allow them to distance from their vote.

Other lynch-candidates would be, Flameaxe, MME. I’m also willing to make a compromise-lynch on TunnelVision.

Yeah, I might need to elaborate on those lynch-candidates. I will, if I’m still alive Tomorrow. I haven’t the time as I’m preparing for a trip.

@Mac: I’m V/Laing until the 5th. So until then.

[hayatoBL]

Screw what I have just said, let’s do this.

I accept your deal RC. I think I’m right, so let’s do this. That “deal” you made is scummy as hell. I’m pretty sure right now, you’re scum.

Those in doubt about RC being scum may lynch me first, then lynch RC Tomorrow. But don’t let him convince you Tomorrow, to not vote him. If he says something like “I couldn’t know that Hayato is town ”, don’t believe him.

Well, if he’s conf-town tomorrow because of an investigation, then of course don’t lynch him. Be flexible.

LET’S DO THIS!!

[hayatoBL]

Sorry guys.

Have no time for this atm.

Will try to answer Q's and share opinions tomorrow. It seems I have alot to catch up. But, I can manage this...

[hayatoBL]

Day 1 is almost over. It seems RC-wagon isn’t going to work Today. Though, I’m staying my vote another day just in case people start changing their minds. Because it feels like it might happen. My comments on the remaining wagon:

TunnelVision – Tunnel’s contribution has increased so much, that I would normally move him to my town-read. Though he was pressured with votes before that happen, so I’m reluctant to give town points for that. This is my least preferred wagon for Today.

BBMolla – BBMolla town-reads RC but says “I would still policy-lynch RC.” Ref: Post 464 and 565. It feels like, he doesn’t want an RC lynch to happen but if it does happen, he wants to be on the wagon and thus, readied with the second post.
I would gladly sheep RC, if others start to join that wagon by tomorrow.

SoS – FF played very well as town in my last game with her. Yet, her play up until now is very different from that game. Her contribution so far is far less than what I have expected from her. Maybe because at that time she replaced in D2 and have more info than we have right now. My 3rd choice after RC and BBMolla’s wagon.

I would recommend a Flameaxe or a DJ lynch but it seems unlikely that it’s going to happen.

MME is looking better IMO. His questions seems town-minded.

Aegor needs to respond to my posts. Ignoring doesn’t make things disappear.

Frog and ICE are town.

I find myself agreeing to the most part of CDB’s and scorpion’s early post. I like scorp’s thoughts on Flameaxe, which mirrors my own. Town points for him. Though, I’ve did a lot of skimming. Will do another round of reads on his posts.

I’ve decided not to respond to Rem’s posts about me unless someone wants me to. Ref: Post 424 and 456. I consider it my lowest priority since Rem left the game.

[hayatoBL]

@Molla
Why did you mentioned that you would policy-lynch RC? What makes RC special above your other town-reads?

I know Rem is gone, but can you describe to me your scum-reads on him?

[hayatoBL]

@MME
I notice these after you questioned me about it.

@Mod: Please let us know the new deadline. Like the 7th or something, so Hayato has a little bit of time on the end. Please no more time than that.

First, he seems to want more time. He sounded like he has a case on me.

Also

Mod:

Deadline remains in place regardless of replacement this time, correct?

If a replacement replaces in before the deadline, they will be granted 24 hours extra. Until a replacement is found, deadline continues as normal.

Please...no more...

But, later he just wants the Day to be over. Suddenly he forgot that he wanted a deadline extension in the first place. Odd, but why aren’t you questioning Aegor about it?

k, can we unvote ICE please?

Also, this game makes me want to shit myself in anger.

Aegor’s reaction on ICE’s claim is not odd IMO. He was on TV’s wagon and he town-read ICE. I think it’s normal for Aegor not wanting ICE to claim.

[hayatoBL]

@Aegor
I don’t think, you’ve answered my question:

MME: Downgraded to null. This could swing either way depending on the promised weekend update.

Since your vote on MME, he haven’t posted anything which could have lead you to your change in reads on him.
What lead you to downgrade MME to null?

Thanks.
And respond also to the post towards MME. Post 603.

[hayatoBL]

Hmm...I think I know what's happening with this waiting for mod.

If what I suspect is true, then SoS is the innocent child. So that's why we're waiting for confirmation from mod, am I right?

But if SoS isn't the innocent child, then Mac wouldn't come at all. But we can quicken things up with....

@Mod can we have a VC, please?

So, if the Mod comes only with the VC without bearing news about innocent child, we would know for sure that SOS's lying.

Bad idea?

[hayatoBL]

I can't think of any motivation for scum-SoS to postpone from getting lynched. Scum-SoS could have fake-claimed gunsmith or cop and asked Ice (if he's town) to protect them at night. Instead they crumbed Miller and soft-claimed IC/vig. Seems too silly to be GiF. I'm pretty confident, SoS is town. Though, I want to see Mac's post first to confirm it.

That's why, while we wait for Mac's post, we should decide on an alternate lynch-candidate, just in case. I say we go with TV because biggest wagon. My preferences are still RC, Flameaxe and Jon in that order. And I won't be missing Aegor either. We should think about this. It's going to be messy, if we decide on it too late. I'll be around tomorrow and hammer if needed.

[hayatoBL]

@MME
Aegor is town. I'll tell you why later. We’re not lynching him today.

[hayatoBL]

@RC
We’re not lynching CDB also. Links on post 818 should be enough to counter your initial case on him. As to the reaction that follows, I don’t feel them.

I agree with BBMolla, I think CDB is vig.

[hayatoBL]

@CDB

Why did you voted MME earlier?

I don’t understand why MME didn’t want that information.

[hayatoBL]

^
If we have to go balls-out, I would like to tell first what I know. But later...

[hayatoBL]

@Aegor
I need your opinions on stuff. I’m very against lynching you Today. Please give me your reads on TV, Frog and Molla. Do you think there is scum among them?

[hayatoBL]

A better agenda

1. Wait 2-3 days and let people give opinion.
2. Hayato explains
3. MME explains, (if he still wants to)

If any of you think I'm town, trust me. I know what I'm doing.

[hayatoBL]

A better agenda

1. Wait 2-3 days and let people give opinion.
2. Hayato explains
3. MME explains, (if he still wants to)

If any of you think I'm town, trust me. I know what I'm doing.

If you think we can do this without Aegor claiming and then MME explaining himself, you haven't read Day 2 properly.

Aegor must claim ASAP so that, if he's scum, he has as little time and information as possible to craft a fakeclaim.

I'm not going to spill it out, whether you like it or not.

I assure you, I've read Day 2 properly to understand the situation and I assure you there's more in play than it seems.

[hayatoBL]

Damn it people….I guess it’s time for me to explain.

MME was being too obvious about having role info on Aegor. I fully understood before I start posting, that we have to at least force Aegor to claim . I don’t think anyone is dumb enough not to see that.

What I DON’T fucking understand is why MME has to do it first thing in D2.

Let’s assume, that Aegor really is scum.

Won’t it be much better, if MME out his info, like in the middle/end of Day 2? He could have observed Aegor and see who could be Aegor’s scum partner (assuming he has any) and at the end of the Day out his shit and get Aegor lynched.

I was trying (failed miserably at it too) to create an illusion, that scum-Aegor has still the chance to survive D2. By doing so, he might be much more cooperative with his reads. Yup, it was all lies. I had nothing on Aegor. That was a failed plan. But before you start calling it a dumb plan, may I remind you, I was trying to fix something MME had ruined. So, credits goes to him, please.

Well, if he really is the miller, then I would have wasted town’s time. But town had nothing to lose so why not?

Anyways, I’m dropping the hammer down in a couple of hours. Maybe I’ll add something before I do.

[hayatoBL]

This needs to be in the thread in case I die. For the record, I expect Aegor to flip scum, but on the off chance he doesn't MME doesn't get lynch immunity; quite the opposite.


IF THIS IS ACTUALLY A MILLER FLIP:

I'm pretty sure that MME is actually a scum role cop, not a regular cop.

Putting a Doctor and a Cop in the same setup is an absolute no no that the reviewers would have ripped to shreds.

Also, he was obnoxiously obvious about having an investigative result, which a real cop would NEVER do.

I like this plan, in case Aegor flips town, we’ll get MME next. I’m pretty sure town-cop would have died N2 anyway.

[hayatoBL]

^ I was holding the hammer...

VOTE: Aegor

[hayatoBL]

I’m against outing the vig.

If we really have a vig, then we wouldn’t want him to be NKilled.

If we really have an SK, then we can hope that the third mafia (if applies) and the SK kill each other. The fact that MME is still alive might be proof that, this is happening right now.

If we have neither (case multiball), then there’s no point in outing vig. Duh.

In none of these cases, outing vig is beneficial to town.

[hayatoBL]

@Jon

flameaxe was laced with ad hom, kept arguing that he was scumhunting, fought against a deadline extension, didn't seem to engage either scum and missed both wagons. possible third party, would have to see how flipped scum interacted with him. maybe just town and a jerk. would like his input at this time.

frog I can't even wrap my head around. I am almost willing to call him town based on post volume.

that leaves hayato who is most likely scum imo. I'm pretty sure he fought both scum wagons. probably our best place to start.

vote: hayato

let's see where this goes.

I posted more than frog. Don’t I also get town points for post volume?

Yes. There were moments where I defended SoS and Aegor.

I really thought SoS was town. Their choice of fake-claim didn’t make any sense and still doesn’t. I’ve pretty much explained that on 678.

As for Aegor, I can only repeat what I’ve said in 867. It is reasonable to say my true intentions, when writing post 820, wasn’t clear and could be seen as me trying to genuinely defend Aegor. And I’m beginning to see that was not a very good plan.

[hayatoBL]

Hayato, who should be in our lynch pool for today?

Right now, I can only say not you. Let me do some ISO first.

[hayatoBL]

@CDB

I'm genuinely not at all sure which way this flip will go but, for what it's worth, I believe MME is what he says he is.

(Suspicious of Aegor on D1) + (MME gets a guilty result on Aegor) + (believes in MME’s claim) = (genuinely not at all sure about Aegor’s flip)??

Although, what would the odds be of a godfather being in a game with 3 scum and a 2 shot cop? It's not as if I could out the entire scum group. Going to assume my investigation is correct.

Given the situation, seems reasonable to operate under assumption that molla is town for now.

What situation do you mean?
And when do we get to start operating under the assumption that Molla might be godfather?

[hayatoBL]

I mean, surely you have some townreads?

I think frog and Molla are town. As to CDB, I'm not sure where to put him yet. Which makes the rest of the players my lynch pool(TV,jon,flameaxe). Need to do more reads to narrow down that pool. Will give update...

[hayatoBL]

I'm not asking for a POE

Again, who is scum according to you? I want your reads

now

and not after a reread that isn't going to happen.

Patience is key. Btw I DID some reread.

TV – SoS fakeclaim makes the most sense, if TV is their scum-partner.

Jon – IMO, Jon’s thought process doesn’t matches town.

Will elaborate on these two right now.

Flameaxe – He’s in my lynchpool because there is no reason for me to think he’s town. Getting question answered from him feels like pulling a tooth out. He keeps saying I’m not answering questions and coasting. Yet, I think he’s the one who’s doing that. Though, would like to lynch either Jon or TV.

[hayatoBL]

@Jon

Listen.

The scum-motivation behind defending another scum is obvious. There’s no reason to argue about that. I’ve revisited the post where I defended SoS. I assume this is the post, which made you scum-read me. Am I right?

I can't think of any motivation for scum-SoS to postpone from getting lynched. Scum-SoS could have fake-claimed gunsmith or cop and asked Ice (if he's town) to protect them at night. Instead they crumbed Miller and soft-claimed IC/vig. Seems too silly to be GiF. I'm pretty confident, SoS is town.

Though, I want to see Mac's post first to confirm it.

That's why, while we wait for Mac's post, we should decide on an alternate lynch-candidate, just in case. I say we go with TV because biggest wagon. My preferences are still RC, Flameaxe and Jon in that order. And I won't be missing Aegor either. We should think about this. It's going to be messy, if we decide on it too late. I'll be around tomorrow and hammer if needed.

Yes. I defended SoS. But read the bolded part. That part should indicate to you that it was a conditional defence. I was convinced at that time of SoS’s innocence, but I was pretty much willing to hammer SoS if no news from the Mod came about SoS’s claim.

If that was scum-Me trying to derail that SoS wagon, what was my plan after that? Was I hoping for some miracle to happen? That suddenly Mac will post and confirm SoS’s innocence knowing full well it won’t happen? Come on….think.

About Aegor:

@MME
Aegor is town. I'll tell you why later. We’re not lynching him today.

So, if this is me trying to defend Aegor, what do I do next? Claim cop and fake an innocent result on Aegor? Come on….

Although, this does not prove I’m town, but it shattered your reasoning for thinking I’m scum.

Two suggestions: 1) Vote for someone else. 2) Restructure your case and keep that vote on me.

[hayatoBL]

My Jon case.

My problem with you is, you seem to not think things thoroughly, when you put your vote. You don’t consider alternate theories, which only scum does.

ICE twisted MME’s words => you voted him

SoS claimed day-vig => you called it BS, and told people to just lynch them.

I defended both scum => you voted me


You never consider the alternative.

Maybe ICE misunderstood MME? Was it a good strategy for scum-ICE to twist words, knowing full well that MME can retaliate and point out that he was twisting his words?

Maybe SoS was really the vig?

You wanted your vote somewhere. You saw you could give an excuse for your vote. So you put it there.

VOTE: don_johnson

About scum-You couldn’t have hard-bussed both scum-partners. How does bussing Aegor considered hard after clearly there was a guilty-investigation result?

[hayatoBL]

@Tunnel

I have to admit. That’s a strong case. I’m also a fan of cases which involves behavioural pattern, so I kinda like it. I just don’t like how it’s going against me.

Rebuttals:

1) I’m town. (Obviously I’m going to say that) herp-dee-derp? Wtf?

2) You call it a classic behaviour. According to whom(or who) exactly? To you? Do you have samples of data to allow yourself to call it a classic behaviour?

3) Let’s say that it’s a classic behaviour. It doesn’t mean that it’s 100% accurate. So where does this inaccuracy comes from?

From people who behave differently.

Scum-Me behaves very differently from those behaviour you described. Scum-Me goes with the flow. Scum-Me doesn’t look at what his other scum-partner is doing, and then does the opposite.

Proof:
My previous game was a scum-game. In the QT, I did a bit of coaching. Here are one of my post. My scum partner asked me, who we should try to lynch the next day. This was my answer:

I think it's better if those thoughts come from you, to avoid coming out tomorrow with the same opinions. Not that I'm saying it would be suspicious if we had the same opinions. If during the game, you share the same opinion, don't hesitate to express it. Just put yourself in town shoes and do what a normal town would do. If I'm playing suspicious, point it out. If I look town, say I'm town.

That was Newbie 1449 – Return of the Van. We scum, were victorious. We had a perfect win. Which means, it’s very likely that if I’m scum right now, I’m going to follow the same tactics.

In that game, both me and my scum-partner weren’t on the lynch-wagon on D1. Both of us were on the lynch-wagon on D2 and D3, without planning to do so. We unconsciously sticked together at each Day.

As scum, I make sure to have zero planning (besides choices of NK of course). And I’m not effected by what my scum-partner do. Thus, if in the future I did follow that pattern you describe, then it is happening by chance, not by choice.

This post proves, as scum I don’t follow any voting patterns, thus rendering your argument useless.

I suggest, that you lobby harder. Read my case on Jon and tell me what you think.

If you’re town and you still trust your case and believe that I’m scum, why not try finding something else, which might point to me being scum? There should be some, if I’m scum, unless you think I’m super good at playing scum.

[hayatoBL]

My TV case.

SoS fake claim is still bothering me. Why would scum crumb as miller, then claim as vig, when they can easily claim cop, with an attempt to out the real-cop? Why make a claim, where town could wait for confirmation from Mod and Flameaxe and lynch SoS anyway?

They might as well claim VT. Why the attempt to

postpone

the lynch instead of doing something

beneficial for their faction

?

Let say SoS claims cop. People will start unvoting them and vote TV, the second biggest wagon. (Other wagons at that time was Molla’s and RC’s). So, here are the benefits of claiming cop.

1) SoS survives D1.
2) Town-TV gets killed.
3) Real-cop gets outed the next Day.

Instead of doing that, SoS did a Day-vig claim.

Let’s say TV is scum. If SoS claims cop, everyone unvote SoS, and vote scum-TV and he gets lynched. The next Day real-cop out himself. SoS gets lynched. Two scum lynched, with Aegor following shortly after.

So, from preventing that from happening, SoS claimed something that won’t cause people to unvote them.

Thus, I think SoS’ fakeclaim makes the most sense if TV is a member of their alignment.

To your “There could be a godfather, thus it’s not logical for Aegor and SoS to vote you, since you would be the godfather” defence, you’re ignoring the possibility of 3 goons + 1 traitor setup. Or you already think that is the case, and tried to take advantage of other people’s ignorance?

[hayatoBL]

(Suspicious of Aegor on D1) + (MME gets a guilty result on Aegor) + (believes in MME’s claim) = (genuinely not at all sure about Aegor’s flip)??

I thought it would have been obvious that, after SOS's flip and my decision to start Day 2 voting for MME rather than Aegor, my suspicion of Aegor from Day 1 was not necessarily as strong as it was then. My recollection of my thought process from the time was that I remembered MME's behaviour around the time of the SOS lynch as being possibly suggestive of a buddy (I'd have to go and look back to get a clearer picture, tbh), so that was where I started, rather than Aegor.

It wasn’t obvious and it can’t be unless it’s there on the thread, black on white. An increased suspicion towards someone else does not mean a decrease of suspicion towards your prior suspect. You actually wanted to vote for Aegor on D1:

Ah crap, can we lynch Aegor instead?

And the conversation after seems like you have something on Aegor. Ref: 697 - 703

With my suspicion of Aegor less firm than Day 1 -

and my not having a particular problem with his claim

, in so much as I thought I could buy that he might not have claimed on gamestart as a miller - it's not unreasonable for me to worry that both could have been telling the truth.

His claim shouldn’t increase or decrease your suspicion towards him. What? Is a miller-claim out of the ordinary for scum to make?

What I'm saying is, your suspicions towards Aegor shouldn't have decrease so much for you to suddenly to be unsure about his allignment after that investigation-result comes out. I’ll post it again:

I'm genuinely not at all sure which way this flip will go but, for what it's worth, I believe MME is what he says he is.

It felt like you were trying to emphasize that you don’t know how Aegor would flip. Because only town don’t know.

[hayatoBL]

I think frog and Molla are town. As to CDB, I'm not sure where to put him yet. Which makes the rest of the players my lynch pool(TV,jon,flameaxe). Need to do more reads to narrow down that pool. Will give update...

If you don't know where to put me, why wouldn't I be hypothetically in your lynch pool? You clearly don't expect there to be as many as three scum left, hence your desire to narrow down, so if you're uncertain about me, why wouldn't I be a possibility?

You are correct. I’ve unconsciously put you in an unknown category. That reflects my reluctance to put you in my lynch pool because of my town-read on you on D1. You are in my lynch pool right now, though. Hypothetically....

[hayatoBL]

Actually, after writing all that, I’m getting excited to know TV’s flip. Jon could just be a lazy player. Please give me some better reads for me to figure you out, jon. And I want some response from CDB.

UNVOTE: don_johnson

VOTE: TunnelVision

[hayatoBL]

My Jon case.

My problem with you is, you seem to not think things thoroughly, when you put your vote. You don’t consider alternate theories, which only scum does.

ICE twisted MME’s words => you voted him

SoS claimed day-vig => you called it BS, and told people to just lynch them.

I defended both scum => you voted me


You never consider the alternative.

incorrect. I always consider alternatives. this a poor way to start a case.

How is it a poor case?

Maybe ICE misunderstood MME? Was it a good strategy for scum-ICE to twist words, knowing full well that MME can retaliate and point out that he was twisting his words?

a) maybe. sure. didn't look like it to me.
b) scum twist words. its not their intention to get caught. this is another really stupid thing to say.

Scum doesn’t want to get caught. That’s the point! Yet you caught him easily enough.

ICE got caught very easily + Scum doesn’t want to get caught = ICE is scum??

Maybe SoS was really the vig?

he wasn't. and the claim was stupid. there is always an alternative to consider, but when the alternative is unlikely or downright dumb, then its always goo to go with what you think.

Yes the event that (SoS is vig) + (Flameaxe is BP) is unlikely, yet provable. A simple, “No, I’m not BP” from Flameaxe would prove SoS is lying. Yet, there you were alongside with Aegor, wanting that lynch to happen anyway.

You wanted your vote somewhere. You saw you could give an excuse for your vote. So you put it there.

VOTE: don_johnson

kind of like you just did? you are failing to consider the alternative: I had reasons for my votes. :/

I did consider alternatives:

a) Scum-don doesn’t think about alternatives.
b) Lazy-scum-don doesn’t think about alternatives.
c) Town-don doesn’t think about alternatives
d) Lazy-town-don doesn’t think about alternatives.

a) , b) And d) are the most likely. And most of the likely occurring events involve don being scum.

About scum-You couldn’t have hard-bussed both scum-partners. How does bussing Aegor considered hard after clearly there was a guilty-investigation result?

i'll try this one more time for the slow kids in the back: when playing mafia we find scum by deciding what is most likely, what is less likely, and what is least likely. It is least likely imo, that the third scum unflinchingly bussed both of his or her partners. I'll accept it if you want to move it to the "less likely" category. but when you put it in the "most likely" category, you are dumb or scum. plain and simple. in your case, you are "most likely" to be scum because you defended both scum and tried to stall or derail both lynches. your placement on the wagons combined with your behavior surrounding them leads me to that conclusion. I am considering the alternatives, but they seem "less likely" to be the truth.

WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT??

You’re missing the point entirely. I wasn’t arguing which is the most likely event, (Scum hard-bussing both of his partners) or (scum defends both of his partner). I would choose, Scum defends both of his partner, as the most likely event.

I’m saying that if you are scum right now, you weren’t hard-bussing Aegor and SoS AT ALL. Elaboration on the next post.

[hayatoBL]

@Don

You said, you can’t be scum because if that is true, then you’ve being hard-bussing both of your scum partners all this time which is highly unlikely.

So let us revisit the posts, where you “hard-bussed” your partners.

we should probably be lynching somebody. any ideas?

vote: SOS

CDB seems to know what he's talking about. did you replace remembrance?

A vote without explanation. Not even trying to convince others to join your wagon. Wow very hard-bus here.

did I miss something? SoS looks like scum here. why are we suddenly against hammering? and how did the topic of innocent child even come up? all I see is SoS claiming to have crumbed miller at som epoint(coming to light at L-1) and then some half assed dayvig claim which was unsuccessful? really? there is no reason not to see this lynch through. I guess there could be a .00001% chance that flameaxe is a bp townie and SoS is a dayvig. so yeah, let's risk a no lynch for such incredible odds. :/

Here, you told others, we should ignore SoS claim and lynch him. He was at L-1. ONLY NOW, you want to convince others to lynch him, when there is one vote left and there were people waiting around to drop the hammer. VERY hard bus here. WoW!!

I have read day 2. mme hasn't really presented a case. the way I see it we have two people claiming role info, if that is indeed what mme is claiming. so I guess that's where I'm confused. I thought there was some sort of actual case on aegor.

vote: aegor

Here you voted on Aegor, AFTER it was clear as hell MME had a guilty-investigation result on Aegor. WoW. Crazy hard-bussing here.


Don, you’ve ignored post 968. Please. I don’t like being ignored.

[hayatoBL]

@Flame

I don’t see anything wrong with Mephis. Instead of sitting there, why not elaborate on your reads on Mephis. I'm town.

^Which posts do you think I didn't read?

What have I done after 214, to earn enough scum points that my scuminess outweighed Mephis’?

And where does my lack of understanding comes from?

[hayatoBL]

Will respond to posts later.

Prod dodge.

[hayatoBL]

Happy scumday Mac!! And thanks for not prodding me. I should have V/LAed.

Responding to posts….

[hayatoBL]

@Flameaxe

You could have just answered them and ask the use of those questions later.

And no. I don’t think I have trouble reading. Maybe trouble expressing and getting my ideas out. No one has ever called me a genius in MS before, but an idiot?

[hayatoBL]

^Okay. I admit. THAT question was useless.

[hayatoBL]

@frog

I really liked my TV case. Ref: 971. Though, I’m willing to respect a no-TV lynch.

UNVOTE: TunnelVision

VOTE: don_johnson

[hayatoBL]

@don

To your post 984:

It seems I misinterpreted your definition of hard-bussing.

However, your definition of hard-bus, doesn’t help you. The moment MME post 785 and 789 or perhaps earlier, scum can WIFOM in any form. That post was a free ticket for any scum to climb on that wagon. No one on that Aegor-wagon should get any town-cred.

You were trying to argue why we should exclude you from our lynch-pool. I provided reasons why we should not. I didn’t add more scum-points on you because of that.

[hayatoBL]

To your post 997:

Okay. You accuse me of defending/stalling. I said I wasn’t. Arguments were presented. No need to make it sound like you have new points.

Although, this does not prove I’m town, but it shattered your reasoning for thinking I’m scum.

not so much. it seems more like you are arguing that you wouldn't be that stupid as scum. maybe you were hoping eek would claim tracker or something not so definitive. in fact, I think if you go back and look at the context of when you made that statement, eek hadn't really said much of anything. if my memory serves, I noticed your "role knowledge claim" before I noticed eek's.

So, you noticed my role knowledge claim first, but voted on Aegor anyway?

that said, none of this clears you in a multi-ball or third party set-up. so I rescind my earlier statement: these are not very good points.

This doesn’t clear me from multi-ball or third party setups. True. But your whole case revolves around me being Aegor and SoS scum-partners, doesn’t it?

I think you are scum who fucked up and had two weak ass teammates. or you are an sk. there is a chance you are misguided town, though, so I'd like others to weigh in on set-up, and given the circumstances I strongly suggest outing the "vig". I need more clarity before I proceed.

unvote

[hayatoBL]

Sorry forgot.

Don is at L-1. Don't hammer without a claim.

[hayatoBL]

@Mod

And I'm V/LAing until the 27th. Exams around the corner.

[hayatoBL]

I don't think you understood my request. I wanted your opinion

right there and then

, not 3-4 days later. I didn't want your reread opinion, I wanted your raw gut, what you remember from the thread without rereading. I wanted a raw opinion, not one that's polished by a few rereads. Without having read the walls you posted, I don't know where you stand/stood and I don't like how you kept postponing giving me that information.

Okay. My bad. I shouldn’t have done that.

[hayatoBL]

Jesus Horatio Balls, this is

all

I missed? Wow. Well, I guess I can give Hayato a response, then.

It wasn’t obvious and it can’t be unless it’s there on the thread, black on white. An increased suspicion towards someone else does not mean a decrease of suspicion towards your prior suspect. You actually wanted to vote for Aegor on D1:

My freakout about maybe switching to Aegor on Day 1 helps show that I'm prone to last-ditch re-thinking. I don't really know how you can see this as a reason to be concerned about my lack of surety before the Aegor flip; it's entirely consistent with my way of thinking.

697-703 isn't about "having something on Aegor". I'm pretty sure I explained this to Aegor himself at some point but I was thinking that his level of previous experience on the site - and from when - might affect how likely he was to not claim immediately if he was really a town miller.

@CDB
Okaaay. I can live with these answers.

[hayatoBL]

@don

Spoiler:

consider this my refusal to claim. you guys are idiots.

To your post 997:

Okay. You accuse me of defending/stalling. I said I wasn’t. Arguments were presented. No need to make it sound like you have new points.

Although, this does not prove I’m town, but it shattered your reasoning for thinking I’m scum.

not so much. it seems more like you are arguing that you wouldn't be that stupid as scum. maybe you were hoping eek would claim tracker or something not so definitive. in fact, I think if you go back and look at the context of when you made that statement, eek hadn't really said much of anything. if my memory serves, I noticed your "role knowledge claim" before I noticed eek's.

So, you noticed my role knowledge claim first, but voted on Aegor anyway?

1

that's nice how you twist events. me noticing your claim and voting aegor have nothing to do with each other.

that said,

none of this clears you in a multi-ball or third party set-up

. so I rescind my earlier statement: these are not very good points.

This doesn’t clear me from multi-ball or third party setups. True. But your whole case revolves around me being Aegor and SoS scum-partners, doesn’t it?

2

yes. currently I believe you are third scum. your defense does not clear you in other set-ups. once again, two statements that have nothing to do with each other. you are running misdirection. my point here is pretty clear. in fact you quoted it:

I think you are scum who fucked up and had two weak ass teammates. or you are an sk. there is a chance you are misguided town

if scum is outside of my aforementioned group, take a close look at CDB. but I'm pretty sure its hayato.

adios.

1.
No. I’m just wondering how in a non-lylo situation, you noticing my “role claim info” before MME’s would make you cast your vote on Aegor.

2.
I understood the bolded part as: “Your(hayato’s) arguments only clear you from being 3rd-team member, but none of this clears you in a multi-ball or third party set-up.” That’s why I responded that way.

Your whole case was about me defending SoS and Aegor. If you assume we have a different setup than a 3-member-mafia, then you have no case on me at all.

[hayatoBL]

@CDB
Didn’t anybody else notice?

CDB, chat with me please, I think Don is a shitty lynch.

I can't carry off a protracted conversation for another two days or so yet but please do talk to me. I haven't read any of the walls but I do admit that the sheer volume of stuff don is posting probably means that he doesn't fit the mould of the player for whom I thought I was voting. As of now I'm in the 'holy fuck, I'm going back and forth on my read like a dachshund on a yo-yo' as regards Hayato but I guess that's the only other alternative as I have townreads standing on Flameaxe and Frog, plus Tunnel's not for today.

“I want to talk more about don and hayato. I think don is probably a bad lynch but I’ll keep my vote on don just in case TV wants to hammer. If that happens I don’t have to talk about don and hayato.”

“I haven’t read any of the walls, but somehow without reading I’m going back and forth on my read like a dachshund on a yo-yo' as regards Hayato”

It seems it’s either me or don for Today’s lynch, but I want your response to this. If you don’t have time Today, please respond to this Tomorrow, with or without me.

Can anybody who survives tomorrow, take a look at this and make him respond, (in case I get lynched or killed)? Thanks.

[hayatoBL]

@don

Only NOW you’ve decided to stop tunnelling me and expand your view on the game…

[hayatoBL]

Anyway. Our time is running out. (You can't push it underground... )

With a little over 24 hours left right now, not much can be done.

TV thinks my-wagon is better than don’s. If anyone among frog, Flameaxe or CDB thinks the same, I will claim. With so little time left, I won’t wait for the intent to hammer.

I might be doing some reading, but would probably not find anything new as I have scoured the thread a few days past. Maybe I’ll just ISO TV and CDB.

[hayatoBL]

^No it's not.

UNVOTE: don_johnson

VOTE: TunnelVision

TunnelVision. You are at L-1. With 8 hours left, I suggest that you claim now.

[hayatoBL]

I mean 6 hours.

@CDB

I don't think I'll be around to turn this wagon around regardless what your response would be.

But it's necessary if the game does not ends today. It depends, whether you're optimisitic about this lynch.

[hayatoBL]

VOTE: don_johnson

And shoot CDB please.

[hayatoBL]

@CDB
Didn’t anybody else notice?

CDB, chat with me please, I think Don is a shitty lynch.

I can't carry off a protracted conversation for another two days or so yet but please do talk to me. I haven't read any of the walls but I do admit that the sheer volume of stuff don is posting probably means that he doesn't fit the mould of the player for whom I thought I was voting. As of now I'm in the 'holy fuck, I'm going back and forth on my read like a dachshund on a yo-yo' as regards Hayato but I guess that's the only other alternative as I have townreads standing on Flameaxe and Frog, plus Tunnel's not for today.

“I want to talk more about don and hayato. I think don is probably a bad lynch but I’ll keep my vote on don just in case TV wants to hammer. If that happens I don’t have to talk about don and hayato.”

“I haven’t read any of the walls, but somehow without reading I’m going back and forth on my read like a dachshund on a yo-yo' as regards Hayato”

It seems it’s either me or don for Today’s lynch, but I want your response to this. If you don’t have time Today, please respond to this Tomorrow, with or without me.

Can anybody who survives tomorrow, take a look at this and make him respond, (in case I get lynched or killed)? Thanks.

Quick. I have 10 minutes.

[hayatoBL]

@ TV
While we're at it. Can you please show us those hints?

[hayatoBL]

OK, so, Hayato: Bear in mind the context of the post.

A) It came during the Reckoning, an extreeeeemely busy period in which I did not have time to go rummaging around for detailed cases. Bear in mind I've not thought about the game for several days at this point. While fresh eyes are good, I didn't necessarily want a flash read off however many words I had time to read to override the hours of thought that had gone into previous posts. Don was in my pool of possible scum before leaving so does a quick flash of townpoints change my mind there and then, without any guarantee of time to think further before the lynch potentially gets decided without me?

A) It seems you’re having this backwards. If you don’t want the lynch to happen without you deciding on it, wouldn’t it be better if you unvote?
Unvoting only help to stall that don wagon and allow you to help in making the decision later. Unvoting does not help other wagons to move.

B) You're acting like my back-and-forth on my read on you is new, when I've already shown that it's been in flux for a while. I had a strong townread on you when I came into the game but circumstances have forced an erosion as the lynch pool tightens and buddies get revealed. Even now I can't really tell what the hell is going on with you; I'm trying to figure out whether this push on me is town-motivated scumhunting or scum needing to open up new avenues of town death by going after a player who's not really been much of a lynch candidate up 'til now.

B) Your back-and-forth now and your back-and-forth earlier happened on the same game, in which I still don’t know what your alignment is. I’m sorry but that is not a defence.

I’m really trying to figure you out but this is the equation that does not makes sense. And both of your points A and B are IMO insufficient.

TV declares intention to hammer + you having doubts about don = you not unvoting??

“I want to talk more about don and hayato. I think don is probably a bad lynch but I’ll keep my vote on don just in case TV wants to hammer. If that happens I don’t have to talk about don and hayato.”

"I do admit that the sheer volume of stuff don is posting probably means that he doesn't fit the mould of the player for whom I thought I was voting"
is not the same as
"I think don is probably a bad lynch"

A change of behaviour is not out of the ordinary - if it's town, sure, he doesn't want to be mislynched, but it's also what good scum has to do in order to avoid getting rolled over. His increased posting rate didn't make anybody else scummier, just made him harder to read. With more time to read him, I've since decided he's likelier town, but all that means is that, with no obvious scumreads (as I've not pretended to have), it's a harder decision, not a clearer one. Given the time pressures and read pressures, I preferred leaving my vote where it was to moving it when I would not have had time to make a sufficiently well thought-out decision on who the better option was, and I'd rather leave

a

vote while busy than no vote. We're not in LyLo - far from it - and nothing disastrous happens if he gets mislynched while I'm AFK. If we were at a more critical juncture of the game, I'd probably have exercised more caution (such as unvoting before I left).

We are far from lylo. Agree. But a ‘scummy act far from lylo’ is still a scummy act. You’re trying to reduce the scuminess of your action by saying you’re doing it far from lylo. It doesn’t matter when you do it. The deed is done.

Also, I'm not naive enough to think that a mislynch while I'm away stops me from having to talk about my thought process on the dead guy the next day.

TV can vig me if he must/can; I would choose Frog (fuzzy town read for me) in his position if we go through with a Hayato lynch but I'm well aware that I'm in the pool of people not cleared by roles/investigations and stuff. I'd rather stay alive, though, because I believe I can be helpful, and because I know I'm town. If we lynch you and you flip town, I have to be wrong on a townread and I go into tomorrow with a clean slate to look at everything afresh.

About that meta on 1137, I don’t think I can read that right now. I’ll ask TV to look at those and make the decision (if he really is vig). If you(TV) think he's not the guy then...I don't know who you should shoot

With that, I’m done for today. I like to think I’ve played my part.

[hayatoBL]

Do we still get to vote for lynch if deadline has reached before Mac comes and close the thread?

[hayatoBL]

So from what I understood:

1) 3pscum vs SK vs Doc + Cop is unfair for town
2) 3pscum vs Doc + Cop + Vig is unfair for scum
3) 2pscum vs SK vs Doc + Cop + Vig is possible. (Though I think this is very unlikely. So is multiball.)

I assume no one else besides TV has(or claims to have) special-PR? If there is, I think he should claim Today, so that we can figure out, which setup is most likely.

Shot Scorpion & Molla eh? Sure it wasn’t ICE and MME? *sillyquestiondon’tanswer

[hayatoBL]

^ Okay. I have no idea how to figure out a balanced setup. Is there somewhere I can read about that?

I think Flameaxe is town. His Yesterday’s play seems like he really cared who we’re going to lynch.

Don looked better after his reread Yesterday. If he had done that before he had a noose around his neck, I might have a strong town-read on him. I won’t put him out of my lynch-pool just yet.

I think CDB is scum. 1137 might prove that he is not aligned with SoS and Aegor. Will look more into that. And would like to continue Yesterday's discussion. Whenever you're ready.

I have a town-read on frog. But that was D1. Will look into him again. I don’t think his “WBO is cool” has any special meaning to it.

[hayatoBL]

I think massclaim helps in estimating the strength of the remaining scum and whether there is a 3rd party. But put that kind of information into my hand, I don’t think I can figure anything out. I’m counting on the rest of you. I'm for massclaim.

[hayatoBL]

And would like to continue Yesterday's discussion. Whenever you're ready.

I kind of don't, really; I don't like the pressure to further overanalyse a post clearly made under severe time constraints, at a point at which I was clearly more focused on things other than this game.

This is a much unexpected response.

[hayatoBL]

Spoiler:

Going through Aegor & SOS in iso together to see if I can pick up indicative comments.

I usually put a lot of stock in analysing flipped scum's readslists because they force stances and Aegor's one here seems like an interesting case. It shows him calling out his buddy, SOS, for lurking, in fairly standard fare - just for context there of how he's approaching this.

Of the non-Tunnel players alive (we're not lynching Tunnel), he says the following: Flameaxe is a brief "annoying but town" which in my experience is more likely to not be a buddy interaction so much as trying to get a grouchy town player onside. He asks a specific question to don about a particular read, which I think is more likely to be Aegor attempting to gain towncred from don by asking him stuff to look busy than it would be scum putting his partner on the spot to explain something. With an awareness of SOS lurking that would feel like an unsafe play for Aegor.

He is wishy-washy in the extreme on Hayato, sitting firmly on the fence and giving him an opportunity to explain himself better. This feels more like a scum interaction. He then doesn't mention frog at all, despite having had arguments with him earlier in the thread - if frog is his scumbuddy, I find it really hard to believe that Aegor would forget to mention him in some way here. As scum writing this post, you have to be thinking so much about how you address your buddy.

I will keep reading but this post points a lot towards Hayato as the third mafia, I think.

Looking at your post while putting myself in other town’s shoes, I find that your case is not bad. I’m the only player on that list, to whom Aegor’s opinion was wishy-washy. I see that.

I refuse to believe that Aegor planned this to happen. That would take much preparation and I assume Aegor is not super-good.

My only defence on your case is that Aegor’s true scum partner might already have a common-tell among the other players.

In other words, it would be dumb for Aegor to have a wishy-washy stance towards his partner, who is at that time already being town-read by the rest of the players.

My post suggests that your post does not

strongly

suggest that I’m 3rd mafia.

[hayatoBL]

who is at that time already being town-read by the rest of the players.

Admittedly I wasn't in the game by that point but I don't recall you being a universal townread.[/quote]

You've misunderstood me. I'm saying, Aegor's true scum partner might have already have a universal townread at that time. Thus, Aegor made no wishy-washy stance towards this partner.

How sure of you about me being scum based on this case alone?

[hayatoBL]

Well, just don't let confirmation bias cloud your judgement.

I have ISOed you just now and I’m starting to feel bad about you being aligned with SoS and Aegor.

I think, I’ll look for scum elsewhere. Will be ISOing the others.

[hayatoBL]

Well, finished reading.

Reading don the second time doesn't change my opinion on him. I don't like his promise to continue reading, but not doing it. Or you still at it?

frog *might* be last scum, but I put my money on don being scum.

Eliminating TV, Flameaxe and CDB, there's don and frog left.

The way I see it, we can afford to lynch twice and vig-kill once. Three. Me, don and frog. Three. We have enough to satisfy everyone.

The order doesn't matter. Don first, frog first, whatever. Let's end this game.

VOTE: frog

And TV, please confirm who you're going to shoot before the day ends. That way if your target didn't die, we can confirm he has BP, thus scum.

[hayatoBL]

Flameaxe: I thought that was a good plan. If TV told us who he targeted before he shoots and that player did not died, we would know his target was scum. How is it odd?

Of course, all of that was under the assumption, that TV really is town-vig. I’m already convinced that he is, since no one is claiming PR.

[hayatoBL]

I guess show’s over.

I’m Vengeful Townie.

UNVOTE: frog
VOTE: Tunnel Vision

It doesn’t matter if we don’t lynch TunnelVision today, since I’m going to venge-kill him anyway.

I’ve crumbed it here: 364. Though, I don’t see the point anymore.

My Today’s observation:

b) who gives a fuck about tv? he's either vig or sk.

If there's a third party, it's TV

Why (in a setup where there is a third-mafia *and* an SK) does TunnelVision *has* to be the SK?
Third-mafia-TunnelVision can easily claim vig.

Is it clever for the real SK in response counter-claims TV? I think among these two, one is just plain slow and the other is hiding something.

And TV has clearly given up on playing. "It's a matter of time before the last town-PR claims, I might as well be lazy and just agree on someone's lynch."

I don’t think CDB is third-mafia but he could be SK. It feels like he’s trying to make people believe that only TV can be the third party. 1175 & 1191

Both CDB and don promised more reads but they are getting comfortable seeing my impending lynch.

This is the case against me btw: 1171. A “strong” case.

Frog’s vote on me was unexpected. “I think Don is scum, but let’s quicken a town-lynch”.

To sum it up: TV is scum. Either SK or third-mafia, idk. The other scum is between CDB and don. If TV flips SK, then I think it's don. If TV flips third-mafia, both don and CDB are likely scum.



If anyone has questions on why I do the things I did, ask away. I’m VLAing from 7th to 10th. So, I can answer questions until tomorrow. Otherwise, you must wait until 11th. Or we can talk post-game.

If anyone disagree with me killing TV, please let me know ASAP.

[hayatoBL]

lol

I was playing under the assumption that CDB was Mafia Traitor somehow. I thought the setup was unbalanced. Since none of us three have special roles, I thought we *must* have a traitor.

So, the moment CDB starts attacking me, I thought that was my queue to 'let myself get lynched'. That's why I claimed Vengeful. I'll die, CDB gets town-cred and win in lylo/mylo.

I should stop making stupid assumptions. Glad the game is over.

Mac : I don't really hate playing as scum. I guess, I just hate to lose. So sorry about that.

[hayatoBL]

Don or MME is MVP. Flameaxe caught me 1st day too. Well done.

[hayatoBL]

The crumb is good, eh? Actually that wasn't a crumb. I thought, it sounded like Vengeful.

[hayatoBL]

Thanks.

I believed your claim. But I figured, if it was a lie, I wouldn't be your target anyway.

So, my top priority was to get vig/SK.

[hayatoBL]

Well, I believe there are moments, when bussing your scum partner doesn't earn you town-cred. For instance, the moment when somebody clearly has a role info on your scum partner.

So, I decided to defend you, instead of bus you since bussing you would be the normal scum-reaction at that time. Also defended SoS for the same reason.

Unfortunately for me, don likes using Occam's razor so much.

[hayatoBL]

Rem: With the mindset "There has to be a traitor", I searched the thread for crumbs. Obviously, I found nothing.

So even a post such as this would suggest to me, your slot was a traitor-slot somehow. Now I just feel silly.

@ Mod, I'd like to be replaced.

My connection with this website is in and out, and too many peoples to track. I'm going to do another noob game.

@Hayato, what do you think of this post?

Here you point towards two scum with (IMO) a silly question. I saw no town-motivation in this question.

Here you go: A lot of me talking to myself. Scum-QT