Mini 1532: Mac's Mini Normal - GAME OVER~

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi guys! I'm going to read the game now.

[ChannelDelibird]

MOD: I actually wasn't expecting to get caught up this quickly. You can hack those 24 hours back off the deadline if you like.

Righty-o!

Hayato, ICE, Flameaxe:

Solid townreads

Frog, molla, don:

Good enough townreads for now

Tunnel:

Improved recently, enough that I want to see what happens when they have flips to digest

MME:

Town early on but the activity decline is starting to become a real concern

Scorpion:

Dotted moments of scumminess, reasonable D1 compromise lynch

RC:

Approaching the game in the wrong way entirely to such an extent that it is hard to read but, if I had to, I would lean scum and would really like them dead either way to avoid any bullshit like fake cop claims

SOS:

Scumread but the sort of scumread I'm liable to wimp out on if they fling a few coherent sentences my way, so we should probably lynch them before they break my will

Aegor:

Reasonably solid scumread

Wouldn't lynch today:

Hayato, ICE, Flameaxe, Frog, molla, don, Tunnel

Needs to post stuff or will be dropping into the next category down:

MME

Would lynch today:

SOS, Aegor, RC, Scorpion

Polite request to any vigs or SKs looking for towncred to kill if not lynched:

RC

UNVOTE: Hayato, VOTE: SOS

My to-do list:

1. Take a better look at the ICE wagon because a premature claim seems pretty predictable given ICE's earlier visible worries about the looming deadline. People who aimlessly kept their vote there or made any moves to shut down rival wagons around that time strike me as more likely to be scum-motivated
2. That's it

[ChannelDelibird]

Other stuff to mention:

Seeing as ICE asked early on, I'm normally in GMT but will be on American time during the Reckoning (18th-26th of this month), during which period I'll be V/LA, though I will be able to get online intermittently at the meet.

DISCLAIMER: Those of you who have played with me before may be aware that I will usually just not bother reading a post if it is particularly long. Wall at your own risk. Presentation is important; succinctness is pro-town.

[ChannelDelibird]

and would really like them dead either way to avoid any bullshit like fake cop claims

I've never fakeclaimed cop and pushed a lynch on an innocent. Ever.

Back the fuck off.

Really? Well, it's certainly been on your mind in this game. Witness:

1) I have never, in my year here, convinced players to follow my reads as town, except by fakeclaiming cop as I have done in NY167 and the Zelda themed game. Even then, the people I claimed a guilty on STILL didn't get lynched that day despite me not retracting my claim. They were both scum.

2) Hayato is scum. I don't have the same unwavering confidence that would provoke a cop fakeclaim, but they are scum nonetheless.

You are a liability. Retorting with "I've never done it on someone who turned out to be town" is not a good enough reason to get pissy when called out on this behaviour.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why is aegor a scumread?

Partially POE (I had a lot of townreads early in my readthrough) but a lot to do with #321, which pretty much reads exactly like a post I would have made as scum not so long ago.

[ChannelDelibird]

Iceninja, you're not town and if you were no one would give a fuck what you think.

This is counterproductive if you are town. If you are town, then regardless of ICE's alignment you want him to say as much shit as possible so that, if he's scum, we can read things into it for the purposes of buddycatching. If you're scum, then trying to get ICE to shut up is great, so I guess keep doing things like this if you're scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

Alright, lynch me.

I've had it with this game.

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

I'm pretty sure you know that if you don't want to play in this game, replacing out is better than self-voting, so I'm pretty sure this is a calculated move rather than a genuine response.

[ChannelDelibird]

Molla would be a lame lynch. My would-lynch list remains SOS, Aegor, RC, Scorpion.

[ChannelDelibird]

Those voting TunnelVision should vote someone else, if only because which of the competing wagons you choose will be very interesting information.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm going to be as calm and brief as possible.

So if I've never failed to benefit my team by doing it, under what grounds is it a problem? Am I ruining the purity of the game?

Read the thread I linked. It will answer every question you have towards my objections. Suffice to say that as things stand I will not be taking any future roleclaim of yours seriously, which in itself should be a problem for you.

Funny because this post looks exactly like something I saw scum make in an unspecified game on an an unspecified forum that I am not just saying to justify my unsubstantiated reads or anything.

If I had either the time or the interest to go into more detail, I would have done, but I was asked what made Aegor a scumread and I gave the explanation that is in my notes. Later tonight, I can go and find some examples of me saying exactly this kind of thing in several previous games (as both alignments), so as to make clear that it is a thought process that occurs frequently when I am playing, or attempting to feign, my town game.

This might blow your mind.

When you put people under pressure, it stresses them out slightly and makes it harder for them to act.

WOW HOLY FUCK WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT IT.

I can accept that this is an ideological difference that we will likely not bridge now, so I shall say that I would rather people acted freely because I find it easier to know what they want if they are, in fact, doing what they want. The fact that ICE looks very town is another point entirely.

So, what are you going to do about it?

You're still in my would-lynch pile (which you've clearly read). If I'd believed the self-vote to be a genuine response, you might not be in it any more. However, my admittedly limited experience of your play suggests to me that you are liable to fake things like that as either alignment, so it has not swayed me to move my vote to you (which I might do, if I truly were scum who knew you were town, as there are clearly people willing to join me in such a venture).

It's pretty obvious that Channel knows I'm town but is being a pissed off little prick because he didn't get enough sugar in his wheaties.

I am annoyed, but not surprised (given your philosophy on ICE above) to see you say this, as it is patently untrue. You must now surely be aware - in fact, you have talked about people's reactions to you in other games - that your style is, at best, unorthodox and will rub some up the wrong way. Objections about game tactics, such as I have raised about faking investigation results, are inevitable between players of conflicting styles and you have no reason to think that I would only raise them as scum. It is plainly sensible that I would have this objection regardless of my alignment in this game, that I would raise it as town and therefore that I would raise it as scum as well. You and I may not be kindred spirits, but let's not overreact.

[ChannelDelibird]

Also, you'll love this, but please don't use 'retarded' as an insult. Thanks in advance.

[ChannelDelibird]

<3

[ChannelDelibird]

OK someone who is town just tell me who to vote so I can get NKed and not have to play this game anymore.

SOS, please.

[ChannelDelibird]

I read it. I provided a link to my rebuttal by proxy.

If someone I believe to be town asks to be pointed toward a vote, I will take the opportunity, particularly if his disinterest is clear (which it is).

[ChannelDelibird]

Seems a little overdramatic when we have over 24 hours left.

[ChannelDelibird]

Read this page again and

WAIT

. A hammer before Mac's next post will be considered a scum claim.

[ChannelDelibird]

They are not claiming miller. Read both posts. Wait for the mod.

[ChannelDelibird]

Nope

[ChannelDelibird]

Given the last page, a hammer now would be enormously informational. If scum wish to so claim, I am all for it. One-for-one trades are good for the town.

[ChannelDelibird]

RC is no longer on my would-lynch list, btw. Vigging offer remains open.

[ChannelDelibird]

You may not agree, but there is not a single person in this game who I believe is insufficiently capable of noticing that SOS is at lynch-1 and that there is a claim pending, and therefore capable of rationally choosing what they wish to do with that information. I therefore am comfortable leaving all of them the opportunity to act brazenly and openly against the best interests of the town, should that be their purpose.

[ChannelDelibird]

After that explanation and threat of treating a hammer as a scumclaim do you still think anyone would hammer?

Do in any way expect it to happen? No. Am I willing to leave the circumstances as is so that either stupid or ballsy scum can still theoretically try it anyway? Sure.

[ChannelDelibird]

Aegor:

That is some major bullshit. May I hammer?

You saw the part where I immediately rejected the idea, right? Because the circumstances are different: Wilfully or not, we're yet to know, but some people misinterpreted SOS's words. Leaving someone on Lynch-1 to tease a scum hammer is quite different when the circumstances aren't widely enough understood.

[ChannelDelibird]

In that case, how do you like Aegor's post-sos-claim post?

As implied above, I can buy it potentially as simple misinterpretation as either alignment. #664 is significantly weirder, though.

[ChannelDelibird]

You stated that a hammer would be a scumclaim. That was an error in judgment. How certain are you that we should wait? I will follow your lead. Just make sure that you have considered all the facets of SoS's claim and its consequences, which you have yourself catalyzed.

The closest thing that SOS has done as regards claiming is to tell us, with a wink, to wait for the mod. So yes, between now and the mod's next post, a hammer would be a terrible idea.

[ChannelDelibird]

That's not the only thing that's off about Aegor

What about #664 do you think is "off"?

[ChannelDelibird]

There are multiple possibilities about what SOS could mean. IC is one of them, but there are potentially others. Let's just see what happens in the mod's next post.

[ChannelDelibird]

There remains the possibility that it's either bullshit or non-alignment-relevant too.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'd welcome that so hard.

[ChannelDelibird]

Pretty sure I want SOS dead today.

[ChannelDelibird]

oh my god drop the miller thing

[ChannelDelibird]

Clarification: Not saying they didn't clearly crumb miller, or that I don't think it might be significant that they did so. Just that they are not claiming 'miller dayvig'

[ChannelDelibird]

Ah crap, can we lynch Aegor instead?

[ChannelDelibird]

Aegor, your join date is 2007 but you've not got as many posts as that would imply. How active have you been over the years?

[ChannelDelibird]

I dislike questions with hidden motivations.

I think an honest answer might help me decide how much I want you to be dead. That's usually the 'hidden' motivation behind any question I ask someone (although sometimes it's to help me decide about a different person to the one I'm asking. But this time it's straight to the source).

[ChannelDelibird]

If I were willing to go through all 1000 posts, I wouldn't have needed to ask.

I ask because I find your view on the miller aspect of SOS's behaviour curious, and I think your history might help shed light on it.

[ChannelDelibird]

I do not think I have even ever played a game with a miller. You would not need to go other all 1000 posts to realize that there is a gap of several years in my record.

Perhaps not, but I'd rather assumed it might be quicker to just ask - plus, it gets the added benefit of being words that you choose to write, which is potentially useful in and of itself.

Anyway, you've not played with a miller. Fair enough. When you said here that SOS's miller crumbing was "not verified", what did you mean?

[ChannelDelibird]

That'll do.

[ChannelDelibird]

Anyway, you've not played with a miller. Fair enough. When you said here that SOS's miller crumbing was "not verified", what did you mean?

Have you figured out where SoS crumbed?

Yes.

[ChannelDelibird]

I should point out that RC highlighted it even before I went back to look, although I didn't get his statement until I saw it for myself.

[ChannelDelibird]

Quality vigging there.

VOTE: My Milked Eek

[ChannelDelibird]

Nope, RC, if I'd known SOS were scum I'd used it as an excuse to vote somebody else. Or, more probably, would have voted Aegor when I caught up.

[ChannelDelibird]

EBWOP: "...I'd have used the claim confusion..."

Slightly drunk, so...

[ChannelDelibird]

Also, pointing out the "quality vigging there" aka commenting on night actions is an infamous scumtell.

This is not Mafia 101, we're not playing from a hand of wiki tells.

[ChannelDelibird]

Please, shoot away

[ChannelDelibird]

MME, why are you only addressing RC in this triangle?

[ChannelDelibird]

Because you don't really matter in the interaction between rc and me.

I'm also voting you, over a guy who I listed as a stronger scumread than you yesterday, for whom you are now voting. You're in bargaining mode, why not with me?

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm not saying it should scare you, I'm saying you're clearly in a mood to bargain about getting votes where you want them but what yesterday suggests should be a feasible move for me doesn't seem to occur to you at all.

[ChannelDelibird]

So why aren't you voting Aegor and are you voting me? If that's what you wanted me to ask you.

Oh, well, seeing as you're so interested

[ChannelDelibird]

In other news I think Tunnel is town.

[ChannelDelibird]

I thought you were going to finish that sentence.

Nope. Having that conversation in that context isn't useful.

[ChannelDelibird]

Stop being a baby.

It's not babyish; you having to be prompted is much more demonstrative than the question itself.

[ChannelDelibird]

That seems a weird thing to think I would complain about. For one thing, I voted you before you voted for Aegor on D2, so why would you think that would be my rationale for voting you?

[ChannelDelibird]

SOLD! to the man in the Plusle costume

UNVOTE: My Milked Eek
VOTE: Aegor

[ChannelDelibird]

After lynching Aegor, let's do CDB.

That makes even less sense than what RC's been banging on about

[ChannelDelibird]

Hey RC. Could you shoot Aegor?

You're not as dead as I previously hoped so we'll probably have to do it the old-fashioned way.

[ChannelDelibird]

Jesus H. Christ, Eek. I'm going to bed and hopefully your last few posts will make more sense when it's morning and I've sobered up because if they still don't I'm turning my vote back around again.

[ChannelDelibird]

Alright, you caught me, I was waiting up to read a reply even if I was going to force myself not to respond further afterwards.

I'm like 99% certain this isn't a real thing, but I really am going to bed so, just in case: Lynch Aegor then MME and stop when you hit scum. All reads still more or less as yesterday except Tunnel's town. Really wish you'd done this when I was sober. But, as I say, pretty sure you've not done anything.

[ChannelDelibird]

MOD: I actually wasn't expecting to get caught up this quickly. You can hack those 24 hours back off the deadline if you like.

#thingsthatshouldhavehelpedRCrealiseIwoulddefinitelyhavekeptmyvoteonpendingtheclaim

[ChannelDelibird]

No, you need to shut your mouth. I hit scum, and that reaction proves it.

Town would be pissed as fuck if I dayvigged them.

My entire game has been in a mild state of 'pissed as fuck' at you, this isn't really elevating it to much higher levels than before.

[ChannelDelibird]

Like, fuck me, wait until I'm sober at least, Christ. GET A CLAIM, EVEN

[ChannelDelibird]

Like, fuck me, wait until I'm sober at least, Christ. GET A CLAIM, EVEN

Out of curiosity, how drunk are you? Like a little bit buzzed or blackout?

Not loads. Enough to make me want to apologise for posting a bit more like I'm in a marathon (but I'm British so it doesn't take much for me to want to apologise), probably enough to make me feel like I could be sharper about stuff.

PEDIT: Why didn't I listen to my fucking brain, of course it was fake, here's CAPTAIN FAKECOP DECLARING A DAYVIG AFTER WE JUST HAD TWO NIGHT DEATHS

YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW DRUNK I AM, AEGOR? DRUNK ENOUGH TO FALL FOR IT

[ChannelDelibird]

I just hate your approach to this game so much and it baffles me that it makes sense to you.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yep, Aegor dies.

[ChannelDelibird]

Good morning. I reread today's posts.

Today we are lynching Aegor. We are getting a claim, then lynching him anyway, and we will take the one-for-one trade tomorrow if he flips town. It really is that simple.

[ChannelDelibird]

Meanwhile, in order to illustrate the fact that RC is attacking a mythical player made up of habits stated on the wiki rather than an actual person with a history and opinions and stuff, here's a link to a game which I can't stop thinking about whenever RC posts in this thread.

Not only does it show me, as town, expressing a desire for a L-1 player to remain at L-1 in case the scum want to out themselves by quickhammering - which is a thing that RC alleges I would never do as town, despite having no evidence to prove as much - but it also shows my last attempt to deal with players whose approach to mafia is so aggressively different to my own that it makes me furious. I got mislynched in this game.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why is "guess whether or not CDB is a vig" a thing we're doing? Stop it.

Hayato, if we have to go balls-out and have you and MME tell us what you know, then so be it, but as things stand Aegor is very clearly the play.

PEDIT: From memory, I didn't like MME's interactions with SOS late on Day 1, but not got time to double-check whatever I was thinking last night right now. As things stand, my read of MME is being shunted to one side by practicality.

[ChannelDelibird]

Agenda

1. Aegor claims
2. Hayato explains
3. MME explains

[ChannelDelibird]

A better agenda

1. Wait 2-3 days and let people give opinion.
2. Hayato explains
3. MME explains, (if he still wants to)

If any of you think I'm town, trust me. I know what I'm doing.

If you think we can do this without Aegor claiming and then MME explaining himself, you haven't read Day 2 properly. Aegor must claim ASAP so that, if he's scum, he has as little time and information as possible to craft a fakeclaim.

[ChannelDelibird]

You guys are about a subtle as a nuclear strike.

Yeah, unfortunately that ship sailed a while ago

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm not asking you to spill, not until Aegor claims.

[ChannelDelibird]

The case on Aegor is MME's Day 2 posts. Read them.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why is "guess whether or not CDB is a vig" a thing we're doing? Stop it.

(I wasn't serious fwiw)

Yeah, if I'd been bothered by you doing it I'd have said at the time. I was passive-aggressively addressing Hayato.

[ChannelDelibird]

Fuck it, given that subtlety has long been thrown out the window, let's be clear: I am

completely ignoring

my own reads of Aegor's behaviour or any of his actual posts. MME is quite clearly claiming role info obtained overnight and, after he had to spell it out for me last night (IRL, I mean), I've ignored all of that stuff so that we can be as basic as possible. Aegor needs to claim, MME tells us the incriminating info he claims to have, we deal with it, because god knows I get reads wrong and I'll happily take a 1v1 trade over whose role incriminates who.

To answer your question: I don't know, I'd have to reread but, if we're going to use things like today, it'll be in deciding which of Aegor or MME dies today to verify the other.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm genuinely not at all sure which way this flip will go but, for what it's worth, I believe MME is what he says he is.

[ChannelDelibird]

And the less said about Hayato's scheme, the better, really, but I think he might have come up with it as either alignment.

[ChannelDelibird]

I probably should have done some rereading overnight because I do have to figure out which of my townreads was wrong. Alas.

At the moment I think I'm most interested to hear what don_johnson and Tunnel have to say.

[ChannelDelibird]

Although, what would the odds be of a godfather being in a game with 3 scum and a 2 shot cop? It's not as if I could out the entire scum group. Going to assume my investigation is correct.

Given the situation, seems reasonable to operate under assumption that molla is town for now.

[ChannelDelibird]

I don't think last night's death necessitates a vig claim.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why the fuck would RC die unless you were the last mafia and a Godfather CDB

I presume to make me look like the last mafia and/or godfather?

Or maybe RC just annoyed the last scum - if I'd actually been scum I'd probably have advocated killing him N1 for my own sanity, as much as anything.

[ChannelDelibird]

If there's a vig, maybe it's one-shot. Maybe the last scum is bulletproof. Maybe it's a bulletproof SK. Maybe the vig is odd-nights only. I just don't really see it as a problem we need to worry about unduly at the moment. We have a lot of breathing room now.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh believe me, you killing him was the first thought that came to my mind rofl

That's understandable - as I'm pretty sure I've made clear, I'd want him dead as either alignment. It's also worth noting, though, that RC dropped vig hints of various strengths. After two consecutive scum lynches, a vig is priority number one to be dead for the scum, and the fact that RC was baying maniacally for my blood is just a helpful bonus.

I would have thought that my entrance into this game would make me a pretty silly option as the third mafia, though.

[ChannelDelibird]

What makes you think Tunnel is town, don?

[ChannelDelibird]

You should. We've got time and breathing room. Let's be exhaustive. I want a clean sweep!

[ChannelDelibird]

I just don't see that a vig claim clears teaches us anything about what we have to do to win the game at this point (for one thing, there's absolutely nothing stopping two people from killing the same target). I'd rather keep any vig quiet so that the remaining scum tie themselves in knots looking for them.

[ChannelDelibird]

(Suspicious of Aegor on D1) + (MME gets a guilty result on Aegor) + (believes in MME’s claim) = (genuinely not at all sure about Aegor’s flip)??

I thought it would have been obvious that, after SOS's flip and my decision to start Day 2 voting for MME rather than Aegor, my suspicion of Aegor from Day 1 was not necessarily as strong as it was then. My recollection of my thought process from the time was that I remembered MME's behaviour around the time of the SOS lynch as being possibly suggestive of a buddy (I'd have to go and look back to get a clearer picture, tbh), so that was where I started, rather than Aegor.

With my suspicion of Aegor less firm than Day 1 - and my not having a particular problem with his claim, in so much as I thought I could buy that he might not have claimed on gamestart as a miller - it's not unreasonable for me to worry that both could have been telling the truth.

What situation do you mean?
And when do we get to start operating under the assumption that Molla might be godfather?

The situation as in we've lynched two scum in two days and therefore, unless the setup is very poorly designed (we have no evidence of such yet), we have breathing space to survive mislynches before we lose. In such a situation, to start lynching innocent investigations in case there's a godfather just doesn't seem very logical at all. That situation changes as and when it has to, depending on who dies and when.

[ChannelDelibird]

I think frog and Molla are town. As to CDB, I'm not sure where to put him yet. Which makes the rest of the players my lynch pool(TV,jon,flameaxe). Need to do more reads to narrow down that pool. Will give update...

If you don't know where to put me, why wouldn't I be hypothetically in your lynch pool? You clearly don't expect there to be as many as three scum left, hence your desire to narrow down, so if you're uncertain about me, why wouldn't I be a possibility?

[ChannelDelibird]

D1, two confirmed scum start and push a lynch on me. You think that's a hard bus? Your presumed scum QT went like this: "Hey guys, great idea... let's start a hard bus on D1. Who should we sacrifice? Not the goons... let's pick TV." ?????? Aren't we under the impression that from a game balance perspective team scum has a godfather or some other power role? Use your brain.

Yeah, MME, we're not lynching this today.

Will go through this as best I can today before I leave for the Reckoning but, as of right now, I'm more likely to vote Hayato than Frog or Don.

MOD: I'll have Limited Access from the 18th-26th due to the Reckoning. I will attempt to check the thread as often as possible but it'll be busy.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi guys - I've got a chance to catch up right now so I'm going to take it and see what I can do to help. Apologies for being so busy here!

[ChannelDelibird]

You don’t consider alternate theories, which only scum does.

Worst sentence ever.

[ChannelDelibird]

Jesus Horatio Balls, this is

all

I missed? Wow. Well, I guess I can give Hayato a response, then.

It wasn’t obvious and it can’t be unless it’s there on the thread, black on white. An increased suspicion towards someone else does not mean a decrease of suspicion towards your prior suspect. You actually wanted to vote for Aegor on D1:

My freakout about maybe switching to Aegor on Day 1 helps show that I'm prone to last-ditch re-thinking. I don't really know how you can see this as a reason to be concerned about my lack of surety before the Aegor flip; it's entirely consistent with my way of thinking.

697-703 isn't about "having something on Aegor". I'm pretty sure I explained this to Aegor himself at some point but I was thinking that his level of previous experience on the site - and from when - might affect how likely he was to not claim immediately if he was really a town miller.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hmm. With a refreshed read from a few days out, I find myself thinking I don't want to lynch Hayato today. His digging up reasons to lynch almost everyone feels kinda town; I feel like scum in this situation are less likely to be fluid in their opinions and just look to knock off a couple of easy lynches from the pool of less obvtown players.

VOTE: don_johnson

I'm not lynching Tunnel today and don feels a bit too rigid.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB, chat with me please, I think Don is a shitty lynch.

I can't carry off a protracted conversation for another two days or so yet but please do talk to me. I haven't read any of the walls but I do admit that the sheer volume of stuff don is posting probably means that he doesn't fit the mould of the player for whom I thought I was voting. As of now I'm in the 'holy fuck, I'm going back and forth on my read like a dachshund on a yo-yo' as regards Hayato but I guess that's the only other alternative as I have townreads standing on Flameaxe and Frog, plus Tunnel's not for today.

[ChannelDelibird]

Post coming tomorrow (but in plenty of time to deal with deadline stuff) as I am super super tired after getting home from the Reckoning

Hayato, this is me explicitly promising to at least acknowledge the post to which you wanted a response

[ChannelDelibird]

UNVOTE: don

Will actually read all of that in a few minutes but the sheer effort being put in here is definite townpoints, I'm out of this lynch.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yeah, fuck it, let's do it. TV has been coasting too much on a reason why he shouldn't be lynched; don's posts above have some great points in them and I think this is the lynch that TV's play probably deserves.

VOTE: TunnelVision

Back in a bit to get to that Hayato thing, should it be necessary.

[ChannelDelibird]

I mean 6 hours.

@CDB

I don't think I'll be around to turn this wagon around regardless what your response would be.

But it's necessary if the game does not ends today. It depends, whether you're optimisitic about this lynch.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this lynch but I will get to it if there is a Day 4 and I'm alive. Am on shift at work at the moment or I'd have done it already but it doesn't feel massively important enough for me to force it through now.

[ChannelDelibird]

If you need to claim vig, do it, if not, get your suspicions down clearly and concisely for use tomorrow should you flip town.

[ChannelDelibird]

UNVOTE: TunnelVision
VOTE: hayato

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, so, Hayato: Bear in mind the context of the post.

A) It came during the Reckoning, an extreeeeemely busy period in which I did not have time to go rummaging around for detailed cases. Bear in mind I've not thought about the game for several days at this point. While fresh eyes are good, I didn't necessarily want a flash read off however many words I had time to read to override the hours of thought that had gone into previous posts. Don was in my pool of possible scum before leaving so does a quick flash of townpoints change my mind there and then, without any guarantee of time to think further before the lynch potentially gets decided without me?

B) You're acting like my back-and-forth on my read on you is new, when I've already shown that it's been in flux for a while. I had a strong townread on you when I came into the game but circumstances have forced an erosion as the lynch pool tightens and buddies get revealed. Even now I can't really tell what the hell is going on with you; I'm trying to figure out whether this push on me is town-motivated scumhunting or scum needing to open up new avenues of town death by going after a player who's not really been much of a lynch candidate up 'til now.

“I want to talk more about don and hayato. I think don is probably a bad lynch but I’ll keep my vote on don just in case TV wants to hammer. If that happens I don’t have to talk about don and hayato.”

"I do admit that the sheer volume of stuff don is posting probably means that he doesn't fit the mould of the player for whom I thought I was voting"
is not the same as
"I think don is probably a bad lynch"

A change of behaviour is not out of the ordinary - if it's town, sure, he doesn't want to be mislynched, but it's also what good scum has to do in order to avoid getting rolled over. His increased posting rate didn't make anybody else scummier, just made him harder to read. With more time to read him, I've since decided he's likelier town, but all that means is that, with no obvious scumreads (as I've not pretended to have), it's a harder decision, not a clearer one. Given the time pressures and read pressures, I preferred leaving my vote where it was to moving it when I would not have had time to make a sufficiently well thought-out decision on who the better option was, and I'd rather leave

a

vote while busy than no vote. We're not in LyLo - far from it - and nothing disastrous happens if he gets mislynched while I'm AFK. If we were at a more critical juncture of the game, I'd probably have exercised more caution (such as unvoting before I left).

Also, I'm not naive enough to think that a mislynch while I'm away stops me from having to talk about my thought process on the dead guy the next day.

TV can vig me if he must/can; I would choose Frog (fuzzy town read for me) in his position if we go through with a Hayato lynch but I'm well aware that I'm in the pool of people not cleared by roles/investigations and stuff. I'd rather stay alive, though, because I believe I can be helpful, and because I know I'm town. If we lynch you and you flip town, I have to be wrong on a townread and I go into tomorrow with a clean slate to look at everything afresh.

[ChannelDelibird]

Also, me being the third mafia would require me to come into the game explicitly naming my two buddies as my top scum picks. This isn't really how I roll - as scum with someone like SoS, at least one of whose heads I knew could look really town if she tried, I'd probably have called them null and tried to get them to play better. Here's a recent example of me replacing into a game on Day 1 as scum and following the one-scumread, one-nullread blueprint with my partners, Ghostlin and penguin_alien.

[ChannelDelibird]

If he isn't the vig he won't live through the night.

Not necessarily, but we can still deal with it tomorrow.

[ChannelDelibird]

Fuck, I forgot people had moved off hayato to vote TV when I moved my vote. I might have made a different choice if I'd not been so jetlagged; I apologise. That said, my latest flipflop is that I think Hayato might actually be town, so this might not be the worst thing. As far as our discussion goes, we can continue that tomorrow if necessary but right now it feels like I'm stretching too much to explain the thought process behind a post that really didn't have all that much of a thought process and it's snowballing in a way that doesn't feel representative. I don't agree with some of what Hayato's just said but I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain why right now and I'm not even sure how helpful it'd be anyway.

[ChannelDelibird]

Man, I wish you'd shot someone whose alignment I doubted. That said, I don't think TV is an SK; both in regards to balance and to his play in general.

Gonna go and do some rereads; Hayato, frog and Flameaxe are the three I feel most need re-evaluation.

PEDIT: Hayato, you're not accounting for the limited shots on the cop (and, potentially, the vig, though I don't think TV should claim any restrictions and it's entirely possible that his ability is balanced out by a bulletproof mafia). I think 3 scum + Doc, 2-shot Cop, ?-shot Vig is not unreasonably balanced.

[ChannelDelibird]

And would like to continue Yesterday's discussion. Whenever you're ready.

I kind of don't, really; I don't like the pressure to further overanalyse a post clearly made under severe time constraints, at a point at which I was clearly more focused on things other than this game.

[ChannelDelibird]

I think that, if there were any other non-obvious roles left to come forward, they probably already would have? By all means, someone claim if they feel they need to, but it doesn't feel like that's a barrier to us figuring out what we need to do.

Frog's posting today suggests it's him but will look to reread the relevant people tonight and avoid confirmation bias as much as possible.

[ChannelDelibird]

Going through Aegor & SOS in iso together to see if I can pick up indicative comments.

I usually put a lot of stock in analysing flipped scum's readslists because they force stances and Aegor's one here seems like an interesting case. It shows him calling out his buddy, SOS, for lurking, in fairly standard fare - just for context there of how he's approaching this.

Of the non-Tunnel players alive (we're not lynching Tunnel), he says the following: Flameaxe is a brief "annoying but town" which in my experience is more likely to not be a buddy interaction so much as trying to get a grouchy town player onside. He asks a specific question to don about a particular read, which I think is more likely to be Aegor attempting to gain towncred from don by asking him stuff to look busy than it would be scum putting his partner on the spot to explain something. With an awareness of SOS lurking that would feel like an unsafe play for Aegor.

He is wishy-washy in the extreme on Hayato, sitting firmly on the fence and giving him an opportunity to explain himself better. This feels more like a scum interaction. He then doesn't mention frog at all, despite having had arguments with him earlier in the thread - if frog is his scumbuddy, I find it really hard to believe that Aegor would forget to mention him in some way here. As scum writing this post, you have to be thinking so much about how you address your buddy.

I will keep reading but this post points a lot towards Hayato as the third mafia, I think.

[ChannelDelibird]

If there's a third party, it's TV, but the fact that nobody has come forward as 'hey, I'm the third town power role!' yet makes it very unlikely that TV is an SK because, given we've seen two Goons flip rather than any other mafia role, the idea of town having Cop+Doc+Vig+Other Role X as compensation is extremely far-fetched.

I'm therefore pretty sure we've already massclaimed by omission but, even if someone has something 'not vanilla' to claim, unless they're about to get lynched it's not that important because such a claim is at best going to make TV look like an SK when in fact we want to kill the mafia today.

[ChannelDelibird]

So let's lynch Hayato, and if that's no good, tonight I'll shoot frog.

I think it's very likely that this would win us the game.

[ChannelDelibird]

who is at that time already being town-read by the rest of the players.

Admittedly I wasn't in the game by that point but I don't recall you being a universal townread.

[ChannelDelibird]

You've misunderstood me. I'm saying, Aegor's true scum partner might have already have a universal townread at that time. Thus, Aegor made no wishy-washy stance towards this partner.

Possible, of course, but I noted the fence-sitting because it reminds me of buddy interactions I've seen in the past. Anecdotally, that's more common in my experience (usually because it's extremely difficult for scum to obtain a universal townread).

How sure of you about me being scum based on this case alone?

On that post alone? Not certain. I definitely think that the post implies you being scum much more strongly than it does anyone else, though. As has been mentioned before, as well, I have had reservations with you in the past, and Aegor's post plays into those.

If I had made up my mind, though, I would be voting. I have more reading that I want to do.

[ChannelDelibird]

Do you think there's likely to be any difference if we do it in a different order, don? Do you agree with me about Aegor's readslist?

[ChannelDelibird]

I thought don was softclaiming VT but, if there is confusion, he should end it by claiming.

[ChannelDelibird]

Don, TV is more or less completely obvtown by this point.

Given that there is no sign of any other power role claims

*

, it is

extremely

unlikely that TV is an SK from a balance point of view.

We know that there is a third mafia left, regardless of TV's alignment. If TV were an SK, this would be the setup: 2 Mafia Goons + 1 Mafia Unknown Role vs 1 Serial Killer vs Town Two-shot Cop + Town Doctor. If you took the SK out of that setup, it would be arguably scumsided even if the third mafia role is a good.

Including

an SK, the town is really underpowered, with their only investigative role fairly limited and its only protection twice as likely to get killed by someone who has good reason to want it dead. For TV to be an SK, we have to be in that situation, and I have a hard time seeing the setup being approved for balance.

On the other hand, if TV is town, then the setup is: 2 Mafia Goons + 1 Unknown Role (probably bulletproof but possibly investigation-immune) vs Town Two-shot Cop + Town Doctor + Town X-Shot Vig. That's a much more reasonable setup, and so many degrees more likely than the SK variation that I would be

astonished

if TV were an SK.

Caution is understandable and, to be honest, I'm now at the point where I think the last scum must be between Hayato and Frog so I don't even mind doing it in your order if TV shoots whichever of the two we don't lynch. In fact, we almost certainly get another Day tomorrow on the off-chance that they're both town. But I think we should treat TV as

way

town.

*If anyone is an unclaimed town power role, this is your last chance to put TV-is-an-SK back on the table

[ChannelDelibird]

So there I am. My mind's made up; Hayato and Frog die in either order. Of the two, I think Hayato is slightly more likely to flip scum so that's nominally my preference to lynch first but I honestly don't think it matters much who goes first.

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: Hayato

[ChannelDelibird]

The non-voters should vote so that we can get this show on the road.

[ChannelDelibird]

UNVOTE: Hayato while I think about this. The crumb is pretty good.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why (in a setup where there is a third-mafia *and* an SK) does TunnelVision *has* to be the SK?
Third-mafia-TunnelVision can easily claim vig.

Is it clever for the real SK in response counter-claims TV?

In that situation, the real SK has to have deliberately killed people that TV would have killed, because both of the kills - particularly molla - are kills that fit TV better than most.

I don't think it would be sensible for the real SK to counterclaim TV in that scenario, but I think that scenario is unlikely. TV also looks a lot like someone who is either a vig or has been planning to claim vig from the get-go.

Both CDB and don promised more reads but they are getting comfortable seeing my impending lynch.

I did intend to read more but I convinced myself.

This is the case against me btw: 1171. A “strong” case.

That's not a fair way to describe the entirety of the case against you when your scumminess has been the subject of debate for a long time. The highlighted post is an important, recent part of the case and the biggest driver of my vote. But it is also influenced by the past.

Frog’s vote on me was unexpected. “I think Don is scum, but let’s quicken a town-lynch”.

It's the obvious play for him from either alignment. Given the available information, I had pointed out that we would have had another day tomorrow even if both you and Frog were town, thereby keeping a Don lynch on the table.

[ChannelDelibird]

TV, you now need to clarify how many shots you have.

[ChannelDelibird]

Given how close you are to a period of V/LA, Hayato, why did you leave it so late to claim? Your lynch has been on the table for a few real-life days by now and we have very little time to talk with you post-claim.

[ChannelDelibird]

Doing some brainstorming. I think we probably have to lynch Hayato Today - if he's lying scum, we probably win the game outright, and if he's town, we get a vengekill. We

do

pretty much need that kill to hit scum if he flips town but if he flips town then TV is almost certainly going to flip scum.

I think we can do that. Assuming the remaining scum doesn't no-kill or something, we then get three of {don, CDB, Flameaxe, Frog} in LyLo and I think whichever person dies in that circumstance is a helpful flip to rule out.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yep. VOTE: Hayato. If you're town, venging TV is the right play.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh. Well, I am surprised that that setup was okayed.

Still, I had fun playing in this game. Props indeed to Hayato, who successfully faked several moments that really made me think he was town - the vengeful claim was bold but ultimately disastrous as it demanded we lynch you anyway, though.

Also shout-out to don, who did a good job of stepping up to the plate when needed.