Mini 1544: Dry, Bland and Tasteless (Game Over)

[Quill]

Well, that escalated quickly. Walking in on a near-quicklynch is certainly an interesting way to start the day.

People who know ABR and Pac better: I'm looking for the odds that ABR actually is pushing this quicklynch for town benefit versus the odds he's doing it to be difficult/get revenge as Pac suggests. And/or the possibility he's doing it as scum, I suppose.

Out of the people on this wagon, the one I dislike the most is Mr. Glidder. So let's go with that.

Vote: Mr. Glidder

[Quill]

People who know ABR and Pac better: I'm looking for the odds that ABR actually is pushing this quicklynch for town benefit versus the odds he's doing it to be difficult/get revenge as Pac suggests. And/or the possibility he's doing it as scum, I suppose.

I want to hear what you think about this, and what you think about evilpacman18.

You want to know what I think...about the question I'm asking? That I haven't gotten any answer about? I think I want to have it answered, in some capacity.

More broadly, I want to know whether there's any method to ABR's madness, or if this is the sort of thing he would do with no reasons and I should focus on people's responses to it more than that he focused on Pac specifically. It's an odd gambit, and one that seems more distractive than productive, in my initial estimation.

[Quill]

Sorry, kids, I've been having internet issues since yesterday afternoon; this is the first time I've been online with time to post.

I'll be V/LA while I'm resolving that, probably for about a week.

As for the issue at hand vis-a-vis me, I haven't gotten my brain in this game yet, so also sorry for coasting. I'm gonna step it up starting now:

EPM, Glidder, Curious, and anyone I missed who's expressed the sentiment that there's scum presence on the EPM wagon:

Which of the people on that original wagon do you currently believe is the scummiest, and why? For me, Glidder caught my eye specifically because he jumped on the wagon quickly, with no reason given, right after saying how much he'd missed and giving no indication his motivations were anything but follow-the-leader. I'm not sure it's standing up to actual scrutiny though, so I'm going to

Unvote

. BJC would probably be my next best guess, if only because Catboi goes to all the trouble to triple post when he realizes he hasn't refreshed the page.

Whomever asked me about ABR's gambit (I know you exist, but I don't remember where in the thread your post is):

I honestly hadn't taken the time to follow up on the history between Pac and ABR when I got into the thread, so the only logical assumption was that ABR was attempting a gambit to gain information. It wouldn't make much sense to lynch Pac that early (except to get out of Day 1, which I loathe, so it's not an entirely bad idea), so it had to have a different purpose. I'm disappointed with the possibility our starting move in this game is to play follow the leader over a grudge.

Additionally, while I think Pac's criticism of LeMidget's early post is preposterous, I don't like his play since then. He jumps on the Pac wagon right in the middle just for OMGUS, and has been posting regularly as of late but only to drive home what he doesn't know. He's also hiding behind BJC and Curious' scumhunting in #137, without doing much of his own. In fact, let's look at that post, just because I'm noticing something else now:

@RBD:

A lot of my opinions are being voiced by bjc

and TMCT. I feel like Pac-Man was being ridiculously aggressive over the original bit (me being foolish) and, as TMCT mentioned, tried to simultaneously accuse five people on his wagon. So a lot of his(TMCT) arguments resonate with me.

As for bjc, he seems quite scummy

but he could be (and I hope is) bussing, it doesn't seem super likely but it is definitely a possibility. Those are my thoughts on the matter. He seems hyper-aggresive, but in a different way than ABR and bjc that makes him look (to me) scummier then either of them.

I feel that if Pac-Man flips town I'm voting bjc at the start of Day 2 unless something wild happens.

So, just to clarify, Midget, you agree with the opinions of someone you think is scummy? How does that work?

Vote: LeMidget

[Quill]

EPM, Glidder, Curious, and anyone I missed who's expressed the sentiment that there's scum presence on the EPM wagon:

Which of the people on that original wagon do you currently believe is the scummiest, and why?

I'm keeping this close to my chest for now. Glidder doesn't strike me as scum, though.

I have a question for you, while we're on the subject: what's your opinion of EPM? Not the EPM wagon. EPM

himself

.

Oops, meant to include discussion of that. EPM's early posts – 24, 25, 28 – are definitely questionable, and could be scum trying to get a wagon going for bad reasons early. But I don't see any major scumtells in his defense or his later posts, and I could also see those posts as over-aggressive scumhunting. That wagon did form up on him pretty fast, which might suggest he's town and one or two scum thought they could put together a quick town lynch before we thought about it too hard.

So I guess my answer is that I'm on the fence, which I get isn't very useful. I want to see how he plays when he's not a target, I think; that might help me come to a determination.

@RBD:

A lot of my opinions are being voiced by bjc

and TMCT. I feel like Pac-Man was being ridiculously aggressive over the original bit (me being foolish) and, as TMCT mentioned, tried to simultaneously accuse five people on his wagon. So a lot of his(TMCT) arguments resonate with me.

As for bjc, he seems quite scummy

but he could be (and I hope is) bussing, it doesn't seem super likely but it is definitely a possibility. Those are my thoughts on the matter. He seems hyper-aggresive, but in a different way than ABR and bjc that makes him look (to me) scummier then either of them.

I feel that if Pac-Man flips town I'm voting bjc at the start of Day 2 unless something wild happens.

So, just to clarify, Midget, you agree with the opinions of someone you think is scummy? How does that work?

Vote: LeMidget

Scum play to act like townies, right? bjc could be bussing.

So just to be clear, both Curious and bjc have opinions you like, but you only think bjc is bussing. What are bjc's scumtells, in your eyes? And what is it about Curious that has you convinced he's town or at least null for now?

[Quill]

The way LeMidget panicked a couple posts back feels much more like newbTown than newbScum to me, although I reserve the right to change that opinion later after we get a couple flips. Bjc, on the other hand, is looking more and more viable for his evasiveness. It's not even the not-answering of questions that's bugging me – it's the lack of reads, which we should have had at least a condensed version of if he was town and trying to catch scum.

Unvote
Vote: bjc

With regard to EPM, consider me on the list of people for whom post #221 is a pretty convincing argument for him being town, at least for now.

Also,

@Mod: Just a note that I'm also V/LA through the week,

although I neglected to flip the switch in my user profile settings.

[Quill]

Haven't had a chance to double back through the thread post-flip, but I'm popping on quick to offer the following word of caution, based on reasons I can't discuss for the obvious reason when people can't discuss things on this site: Don't mistake Zekrom's apparently inability to understand what's happening for a scumtell. For him, it's very much null, if frustrating.

Much agreement with Glidder on Nikanor's post about being "confirmed town." I don't actually think he's scum at this point (Nik), but that argument is neither convincing nor encouraging that belief.

[Quill]

Don't mistake Zekrom's apparently inability to understand what's happening for a scumtell. For him, it's very much null, if frustrating.

Let's be frank

nfurters

. We vigged scum, and due to what looks like a modslip, something went awry with the scum's nightkill. I think we can afford a policy lynch on this guy.

That's true, but we also can afford to spend a little time pursuing leads that might actually bear fruit. If you want to double back to Zekrom later, I could probably get on board.

I didn't see the evidence on Rainbowdash as quite as damning as you all think it is, but post-reread she's my second scumpick after Curious, so I can be trusting enough to get on board with this wagon.

Vote: Rainbowdash

That's L-1, by my count.

[Quill]

Sorry, guys, clearly I'm a fucking moron for going on about how problematic Zekrom is and then two posts later putting someone in range for him to try and hammer. Very glad to see that vote didn't actually go through, especially considering how things have shaken out since.

I'm very much liking the way Egg is looking at things, which is a phrase I typed before getting to the page where he is confirmed as an Innocent Child, so now I'm really liking it. I'm not especially convinced that Rainbowdash is town just because Midget forgot to mention them, though – he does say that people he doesn't mention count as null, so maybe he wanted to just keep not drawing attention to them.

With regard to Rainbow's claim, count me among those not entirely convinced that she's town-aligned. I think her argument that she wouldn't claim RB as scum if she wasn't a RB make perfect sense, but as others have said, there's nothing in it to support her being a town RB. It's enough to put my vote elsewhere and see what develops though. Now that we know she's a roleblocker, we can hold her accountable for her blocks, regardless of what her alignment is.

Elsewhere, in this case, is TMCT.

Unvote
Vote: The Most Curious Thing

Before I go, Nikanor:

evilpacman18 is scum with rainbowdash.
it is known.

Seriously, what is this? You really think the entire LeMidget/EPM interaction from Day 1 was extended bussing? You're sliding closer and closer to the wrong side of my reads.

[Quill]

Belated TMCT case, for those who were seeking an extended version from me: (Note that I'm not cribbing from the other cases, so I might repeat stuff/phrase it differently.)

Spoiler:

Primarily, there's the LeMidget interactions. Right from the start, TMCT is more coaxing or training Midge than actually questioning him about his RVS vote, and unvotes him very quickly (in #59) to jump on the EPM bandwagon with a pseudo-vote. There's also this little bit from LeMidget which seems curious, especially since TMCT is in prime position to hammer.

I think that, if Pac-Man is indeed scum, since we're at L-1 on page 4 the person to hammer him will most likely be town. I don't think a bus could possibly happen this early and all that, though I could be wrong... That being said, I also like Nikanor's bit about waiting to hear what others think (and also maybe a claim, that would be nice).

After that, TMCT makes his infamous murky comment, which I know a couple other people have pointed out. That didn't catch my eye initially, to be honest, and even now I don't know that it can be taken as too damning. What's worse about this post (#107) is the way he criticizes EPM for being vague, but he himself hasn't really contributed that much with specificity at this point. Shortly after, LeMidget makes him the only Town read (#129), which almost seems too obvious but is in keeping with LeMidget's play elsewhere, and sheeps his opinions in a number of subsequent posts. And then when LeMidget appears to completely come apart in #196, there's an almost theatrical back and forth between the two of them that feels very staged or facetious (not that they have daytalk and came up with it there, but more that it feels like the way scumpartners would play off each other in this setting, without being able to coordinate)

When it coms to the EPM wagon itself, TMCT never really does anything useful initially other than mudsling and set up his play for when EPM flips town. He lets that pursuit drift awhile, making some non-cases against me and bjc throughout the rest of Day 1, although I do like this little bit where he tries to keep the case against EPM alive even if/when LeMidget flips scum:

Don't have a lot of time tonight, but a few thoughts:

1. /barn 230 in its entirety. Well, not in its entirety, but with the caveat that EPM could still be scum if Midget also is. If Midget is town, I cannot see EPM eliminating a mislynch option in one fell swoop, especially when doubling back on a prior scum read. That's restrictive scum play that bites you on later Days. If both are scum...well, that's not something worth entertaining Today, since Midget's vanilla claim after EPM's make little sense in that context.

He's been pretty AWOL toDay, but what he has posted is as minimal in content and scumhunting as the rest of his posts, brushing off the accusations against him without any real evidence other than "that's just what I decided to do" or deprecating references to himself as a "below-average townie." Based on how the tenor of the day is going, this looks to me like him hoping to slide under the radar, while we lynch either Rainbow, Glidder or ABR.

TL;DR: I still think Curious is acting scummy, here's why.

As for other things...

But lemidget forgot rainbowdash's slot was in the game

And he voted me out of the gate. He clearly thought he stopped the kill

Caught this on my readthrough. Could just be a setup by Rainbow in case she had to claim later, but I'm willing to trust it for now and consider her at least town-leaning. I'm not as sure on the ABR case she's championing right now, but I think there's better lynch candidates to pursue either way so I'm not going to expend time pro/con-ing its merits at the moment.

I'm going to follow up on a few other things earlier this week as I can, specifically going back to look at how some of these vote counts have shaken up. Rainbow might not have sold me on her read of those counts, but that doesn't mean they aren't potentially useful.

[Quill]

while we lynch either Rainbow, Glidder or ABR.

Quill, what are the alignments of those players?

As I just said, Rainbow is currently town-leaning for me. Glidder's null with a dash of scum for lurking and not scumhunting, but I haven't paid too much attention to him. ABR's felt town to me this game, but I want to go back through with Rainbow's case in mind.

You have any evidence you'd like to share with the class for why Glidder or I are scum? Not a full read-through and point-by-point, just your 90-second pitch of why we're the people you're most comfortable with getting rid of. Especially with you throwing some implied suspicion at Nikanor and/or Rainbow with #491.

[Quill]

RD, there were two L-1 wagons on EMP. The first one (in order):

ABR,

Egg

, Nikanor,

LeMidget

,

catboi

,

bjc

The second one:

ABR,

Egg

,

Nikanor

,

LeMidget

,

catboi

,

bjc

, Mr Glidder

Is there a good reason you left out Nikanor, or are you being lazy?

To me, that potentially reads as: Rainbow leaves out Nikanor as a way to point suspicion at ABR, without having to implicate his scumpartner for doing the same thing. Or you could just be asking the question. I'm just looking at more than one option here, and it struck me as odd.

[Quill]

Let me skim back through Glidder's posts/the Glidder case first, but post-claim I'm guessing I'd also be on board to hammer. Glidder isn't my top guess at this point either, but Curious is looking increasingly unlynchable today.

[Quill]

Wow, I did not realize the level of interaction between Glidder and LeMidget. That guy is talking about how town Midge is in half his posts.

Yeah, count me on board the Glidder lynch. Claim time.

Vote: Mr. Glidder

[Quill]

I'm not touching set-up mechanics, since I haven't been here long enough to have a sense of what a balanced setup is and I think there's probably better ways to figure out what side of the game Rainbowdash is on. Even if she's scum, there's one other partner out there, and they aren't locked into a claimed role that could trip them up by the end of the game.

I was hoping to post before the end of yesterDay, but the topic got closed before I could squeeze in. The short version: I honestly thought Curious was trying to ignore all the reasoning I'd already posted of why I thought he was scum, but when I looked back through my own ISO, I realized it didn't exist. Apparently, I'd neglected to get it from my notes to the forum, hence why my vote on him looked more opportunistic than it really was. Ironically, his dogged pursuit of me for that reason makes him look a bit more town than I'd originally thought, so he's going a bit lower on my agenda for the time being.

The way I see it is this.
The scum know who they tried to kill on night one. Therefore, they know for sure whether there is a power role that stopped the kill on night one.
I suppose that the Edosurist kill was an attempt to off this power role.
If the scum had killed catboi on night one, they would have killed Egg last night. No question about that.
I believe that the kill on Edosurist confirms to us that there is in fact a power role that stopped the kill on night one.

We don't need the other town PR to claim. We already know that there is one.
Somebody hammer Rainbowdash, please. We should have done this yesterday.

Explain to me why the Edos kill confirms that a power role stopped the kill Night 1. (I'm not disputing that that happened, just unsure how you can say that kill definitively proves it.) Or why the mafia would have targeted Egg after his obvious taunting of them, when they still have other options. As long as Egg isn't on the right track with them, they have no need to test their luck with a person who can't have been the power role they're hunting for.

Right now, I feel like one of Nikanor and ABR is scum, but probably not both. Leaning towards Nik. As a way of saying much the same thing, but in reverse, I don't see both Curious and Rainbowdash as scum.

[Quill]

Nothing about Nik's claim feels believable to me, but there also hasn't been a counterclaim yet, which is strange since there's got to be a protective role of some kind, unless scum did in fact shoot Catboi after he'd already died. I want to do a reread of Day 2 at least before I commit to this, but I think we need to take out Rainbowdash today. Too much evidence pointing to her as a scum roleblocker.

Nik: What was your actual rationale for protecting Curious?

[Quill]

No.

If we lynch Nik today scum cant kill without clearing town.

We lynch Nik, I block EPM. Even if EPM is town and scum kill me we enter F5 with Egg + EPM clear in a worst case scenario. I mean seriously, its worst case scenario F5 with two clear.

Yeah, that wouldn't actually clear EPM, just for the record. On the off-chance both you and Nik are town, there could still be a second scumpartner who submits the kill. Your continual string of misleading scenarios isn't putting you in an especially good light.

[Quill]

Okay, here's the possible scenarios as I'm currently seeing them:

1) We lynch Rainbow, who flips town roleblocker: Immediately, Nikanor and EPM are implicated. Of the two, Nikanor seems most likely to be scum, due to the reasons Rainbow and others have already stated. In this scenario, I'm personally inclined to think Nikanor has been mindgaming us ever since the start of D2, and scum targetted catboi. This would make Curious his likely partner, because the Doc claim implies Curious is town. But either way, Nik would be the smart follow-up lynch.

2) We lynch Rainbow, who flips scum and/or scum roleblocker: Nikanor is confirmed doc, Curious is all-but-confirmed town. This leaves EPM and ABR. I'd be a little wary about going after ABR based on the case Rainbow hammered out earlier, but he seems to make more sense in the aggregate.

3) We lynch Nikanor, who flips town doc: Curious is almost certainly town again, and the other two people on the wagon, ABR and Rainbow, are implicated. I think the decision to go after Rainbow is easier here, because I can see a town team of IC-WeakVig-Doctor against a Mafia Roleblocker better than a town team of IC-WeakVig-Doctor-Roleblocker. The latter's giving town a lot of ways to stop the kill, especially if, as Egg implies, there's some sort of trap built into his role beyond the usual extent of an IC. ABR could be the second scum then, I suppose.

4) We lynch Nikanor, who flips scum: Rainbow is confirmed town, and Curious suddenly looks suspicious again. In fact, I'd be hard-pressed to buy any other partner for Nikanor, except maybe EPM.

As I've reread things, Rainbow's play has felt more consistent. She targets Egg right away on Day 2, because that's what you'd do if you blocked someone and no night kill happened. She immediately calls shenanigans on Nik's claim, because the claim probably should have been used Day 2 to either trap her or save Curious. And while some of her reasoning for why she's town is flawed, it seems in good faith.

On the other hand, as I said above, Nik as a doctor and Rainbow as a mafia roleblocker seems to make a bit more sense. Also, while he certainly could have claimed to save Curious before being lynched, he doesn't actually waver in his belief that Curious is town, even if he doesn't express it as often as I might have. Egg's argument that a doctor would pay attention to flavor does hold a bit of water too, I guess.

TL;DR: I'm pretty torn here. Logically, based on the possible outcomes of these scenarios, it makes more sense to lynch Nikanor because his claim is a bit less fitting, his death provides us with more information, and it would offer up that possibility Rainbow mentions of clearing another townie if he is in fact scum. Also, trios of LeMidget-Nikanor-ABR or LeMidget-Nikanor-Curious make more sense to me than the other ones we have left, except possibly LeMidget-Rainbow-ABR. I want to sleep on it to be sure, but that's where my vote is leaning.

[Quill]

Thought about it, had some RL things go down, thought about it some more. Rainbowdash makes more sense than Nikanor for scum, and has the benefit of us being more sure about Nik one way or another when she flips.

Vote: Rainbowdash

[Quill]

@TMCT: Figured as much, but I don't see how I could have hammered any differently to make you feel better about it. Sorry my reads changed to not agree with yours, I guess.

[Quill]

Oh cool, we won before I got a chance to defend myself from being strung up. Good game, all. Sorry to have been out of things early on; D1 is hard for me to get into anyways so not being around to post exacerbated that problem. But it all worked out okay in the end, I suppose.

Nik, did you know you were only an odd-night doctor? I'm curious whether you did submit a protect on N2 that just didn't have any effect or if that was just to give you more credibility.