Mini 1535 - Game Over

[Tommy]

/confirm

[Tommy]

[quote=Smudger]Wagon on gooner.. why Kid?
VOTE: Dessew[/quote]

Dessew's only post by this point was before the Gooner wagon had started.

VOTE: Smudger

[Tommy]

I thought the bit I quoted was Smudger's reasoning for his vote, but apparently I was wrong. Smudger, can you explain what you meant in your first post?

[Tommy]

I believe Smudger's explanation of his first vote. I like Gooner's latest question too, mind.

VOTE: Dessew because of this:

you're pushing someone based on an RVS vote

It's pro-town to push people during RVS. So when someone's doing that, it's anti-town to criticise them for it.

masenkoEX, what do you think of Dessew and Smudger so far?

[Tommy]

I believe Dessew's justification in post 57. He's still wrong, but that's not a sign of malice.

So next I'm going to sheep Albert.

VOTE: DoctorPepper

[Tommy]

Not to jump to Tommy's aid or put words in his mouth, but it's probably because of the seemingly random FOS on me.

You did put words in my mouth - please don't. But you're right about my reason for voting: I'm sheeping Albert's logic as well as his vote.

Thanks for answering my other question.

[Tommy]

masenko, if Aegor is cleared of suspicion, why are you still voting for him?

[Tommy]

Am I missing something on masenko? Seems some are looking to him to provide a lead in the game

Like who?

[Tommy]

Oops - ninjaed.

Masenko, you can't have it both ways: is Pepper cleared of suspicion? Or is he 'anti-town/scummy'?

[Tommy]

masenko, you didn't FoS Dr Pepper - you voted for his death. And your vote still stands.

[Tommy]

Oh hang on. I got Aegor and Dr Pepper mixed up. I'm sorry.

[Tommy]

No I'm not, Smudger. What made you think that?

[Tommy]

Ha! Well I'm not. Confused, yes.

[Tommy]

Happy enough with 91. Switching to Surye.

VOTE: Surye

His last post is a misrep, which he set up in post 106. The bit quoted in 106 starts with 'and'; in the quoted post (104) there's substantive stuff before the 'and'; Surye is pretending there isn't.

[Tommy]

ABR, do you have any reads besides DoctorPepper?

DoctorPepper, as I understand it your case on Aegor is that his two early votes were placed without original reasoning. Is that right? Only because it looks a bit thin to me. Why not vote Kid A or Dessew?

i will do some talking tomorrow im gonna play a marathon and then go to sleep

Liar.

Lol tommy.... Why are you defending Masenko?

I'm not defending Masenko, I'm attacking Surye.

How can you be happy with 91 and say Masenko's "My vote on DoctorPepper remains because I feel his response in 91 lacked logical justification" had any substance?

Because I don't expect masenko to share my opinion.

Which I never dismissed, he just jumped from that to "scumslip down the road".

Ah no, Surye. This is the nub of the matter. He didn't make that jump. You did. Here's the order of events: in post 104, masenko gives two reasons for his vote. In 106, you quote only the second reason - perfectly legitimately, because you have a question about it. But the jump comes in 109, where you imply that his case on DoctorPepper rests solely on his second reason. You vote him on this basis, and manage to pull Gooner in with you.

Having said that, his unvote is pretty scummy too.

[Tommy]

Whoah there! What did I do?

[Tommy]

ABR, can you answer the question I asked you on the previous page?

[Tommy]

Yes, I've decided that you and DP are scum for now.

Why?

[Tommy]

So is that just based on Tommy's "leaping" to the defense of masenko, or something else, or what?

was this at me if so basically yes, its weak I know but then his replies and responses don't help change my thoughts.

Let me see what I can do about that.

In post 50, I asked masenko a question to get some content out of him. I just picked him at random from the people who'd posted but hadn't given me anything to read from yet. I think, Smudger, that you figured I respected masenko and wanted his advice, but that wasn't the case.

From then on, you were looking for connections between me and masenko. So when I was questioning him on pages 3 and 4, you took it as meaningful further evidence that there was some kind of link. Maybe you figured I was attempting to distance myself from masenko?

And by the time I was making a case on Surye, your mind was made up. My motivation, you assumed, must be to defend masenko. In fact, I was more interested in Surye's guilt.

But I have to admit that Surye's been acting like town recently. He's backing down from things he doesn't need to back down on. So I'm going to move my vote. I can see three candidates:

Aegor needs to explain his latest vote.

DoctorPepper hasn't posted much content besides self-defence. Post some reasoned reads, Pepper.

Kid A could easily be scum. His ISO smacks of a cursory read-through, with the analysis stopping as soon as he parked his vote.

VOTE: Kid A

PS: Given the rest of kushm4sta's ISO, I agree with ABR that post 185 has got to be town.

[Tommy]

Buddying, Smudger? I was quite aggressive on pages 3 and 4, wasn't I? Until I realised my mix-up.

[Tommy]

I guess I cant see how scum aegor would vote jump like that so I change my mind on him.

Aside from that, i dont buy the whole "kush is town because scum wouldnt say these things" because I see no pro town content in his posts.

So you believe Aegor wouldn't be so careless with his votes if he were scum, but you don't buy that kushm4sta is town because he is careless with his votes? Seems a little contradictory.

Don't like this. That isn't what he said at all.

[Tommy]

Then how did you interpret it, Tommy? Do tell.

He said 'no pro town content'. You changed that to 'careless with his votes'.

[Tommy]

Yeah, three is most common if there's only one scum faction.

[Tommy]

Kid A, what's your current read of Aegor?

DoctorPepper, masenko and Aegor, what do you currently think of each other and of Kid A?

[Tommy]

NJAC, what are your reads on masenko and Kid A?

[Tommy]

Tommy you remain scum number 2

Thanks for the update.

[Tommy]

the three of us have already made our feelings known about each other and Kid A.

Okay, so looking back over your ISO, I'm guessing you have scum reads on Aegor and Kid A?

[Tommy]

Hey DoctorPepper. Please answer the question in 315.

[Tommy]

I'd suggest those of you on a player with one vote move off of your wagons

Good call.

VOTE: DoctorPepper

He avoids questions and he isn't trying hugely hard to hunt for scum. Also I find it kind of creepy that he claims the authority to vouch for the feelings of two other players here:

the three of us have already made our feelings known

[Tommy]

Aegor, please answer the question I asked you in 294.

What's questionable about my vote?

[Tommy]

Tommy why is your vote not questionable?

Because Pepper's deliberate deflection of my questions is scummy. If my vote is questionable, question it.

DoctorPepper, please answer the question in 315.

[Tommy]

You say he avoids questions, yoiu mean he did not answer your one question in 315 ?

My initial question was in post 294. Since then I've called him on it three times and he's consistently evaded it.

so why is the answer important if as you say, you have read his ISO?

He hasn't explicitly given a read on Aegor or Kid A. I want him to stop equivocating and commit to a view. This will be useful information when we start to get flips.

Why do you find it "creepy" that DP would point out that 3 players have already entered into the thread their thoughts? and how is being creepy scum play?

I had asked Aegor and Masenko for their current reads, and DoctorPepper said that there'd be no need for that because they'd already made their feelings known. How does DoctorPepper know how Aegor and Masenko are feeling? It's creepy - and scummy - because it suggests an alliance.

[Tommy]

You are demanding that other players manufacture reads so they can be used as fodder for the bandwagons later.

I'm not demanding anything of the sort. If you have null reads, just say so. The fact that this is so much harder than I expected makes me think I might be onto something.

[Tommy]

Above are his two scumhunting posts.

He also scum-hunts in 49, 53, 135, 167, 245, 248, 285, 287, 289, 316, 318, 321 and 327. This is such a bad wagon.

[Tommy]

ABR, I indulged you momentarily. Please let me switch back to kush.

Weird.

[Tommy]

I define "scumhunting" here as giving reasons why someone is scum. He doesn't do that in any of those posts.

I just checked, and you're right. I guess not attacking people is a good way of getting a low profile. He managed to dig up a criticism of Surye after you said this, but it didn't hold much water for me: the word 'still' was justified by the preceding sentence.

On the other hand, it's Day 1 and I could believe he saw nothing particularly worthy of attack. Especially if he's looking for a 'smoking gun'. Scum tells aren't usually like that.

And I'm wary of ABR's ability to conjure a wagon without even making a case. It's certainly taken the heat off DoctorPepper. And I still can't get my head around Aegor asking for Albert's permission to change his vote. What about a three-man scum team of Albert, Aegor and Pepper?

I just did a quick reread with that theory. It's pretty funny. They're at each other's throats in RVS, and then that just... stops.

[Tommy]

Apart from kushm4sta's point about attacks, there's pretty much nothing:

Dessew says 'Gooner seems to try to fly under the radar' in 179.

ABR:
'His posts are easy to make as scum.'
'Your posts keep a low profile.'
'Gooner looks scummy.'

Dessew parrots ABR in 346 and 404.

Surye finds 'little redeeming' in post 365.

Aegor just does as he's told in post 371. (Also, he then asks for permission to change his vote!)

[Tommy]

You have responsibility for the wagon, but you don't get to take responsibility for the hammer too.

[Tommy]

At least wait for Gooner's reads list.

[Tommy]

ABR was a lot more talkative in his last scum game.

[Tommy]

A decent point in favour of killing Pepper is that's been so hard to do. The Gooner counter-wagon, on the other hand, sprang up very quickly out of nowhere.

[Tommy]

Is this a bus? Is that how Albert can be so certain of Gooner's alignment? Are you lining me up for a D2 lynch already?

[Tommy]

Ha! It's all right, you don't have to repeat everything your buddy says. I got it the first time.

[Tommy]

Wait, wait, wait. How would it be beneficial for scum to have a one-for-one change on D1?

If ABR felt like he could use the resulting kudos to steer the town towards a defeat. Like, for example, if he found on Day 1 that he had the ability to literally tell people how to vote with little to no justification, and they would just do it.

[Tommy]

Mind you, if the team is Aegor/Albert/Gooner, it seems unlikely that DoctorPepper is scum as well. So then I don't have a motive for the counter-wagon. If it's a bus, Aegor must be innocent.

[Tommy]

I still think most likely is that it's not a bus. DoctorPepper is scum, Gooner is town, ABR is driving a counter-wagon away from his buddy. That's my number one theory. I just got antsy when Albert promised kushm4sta that Gooner was scum. Is there a pro-town role that could give him that information on Day 1 of a normal game?

[Tommy]

1.: in #443 do you mean that the next days might be like Albert says 'X is scum' and then X gets lynched?

Yes.

2.: there must be a typo in #444 or I must be incompetent because I don't understand anything in that post.

I realised that I now had a paranoid picture where there were like four scum out to get me.

[Tommy]

Fusion, your wagon doesn't have a chance. What's wrong with killing DoctorPepper?

[Tommy]

If DoctorPepper manages to claim power without being counter-claimed, I'll consider any flashwagon you suggest. But Pepper has to be the first move. We have a day and a half.

We need more content from Fitz's slot, but that's for Day 2. You're right that it would have been more towny to back up his town-read. But he'd probably only skimmed the thread at that point - maybe he didn't know where his read on you came from.

DoctorPepper refuses to answer direct questions. Plus when I ISO him, everything he says feels either over-defensive or insincere. Except maybe 312.

[Tommy]

Tommy seems to be trying to get some info about PRs

Absolutely not. I'm just being realistic: we need a contingency if DoctorPepper makes an unchallenged power claim.

ABR, please explain your vote.

[Tommy]

Im not answering your fucking question because your question was so damn insincere you'll see I've already answered them BEFORE you asked your question.

Where?

[Tommy]

Im not answering your fucking question because your question was so damn insincere you'll see I've already answered them BEFORE you asked your question.

Where?

In fact, you know what? Forget that. Here's a new question. What are your current reads on ABR and Aegor? Current, mind: I don't want you waving vaguely at your back catalogue. I don't care if the answer is 'Undecided'. Just tell me the truth. As of this moment.

[Tommy]

Rubicon, why didn't you claim your whole role in one post? Why did you wait half an hour to add the modifiers?

[Tommy]

Rubicon's right: the scum might not have got that.

[Tommy]

Rubicon, why didn't you claim your whole role in one post? Why did you wait half an hour to add the modifiers?

It's clearly a joke. I'm not really bulletproof.

So the cop claim was genuine but the modifiers were a joke?

[Tommy]

I guess I'm just really slow and humourless. Is everyone else happy that Rubicon hasn't claimed?

[Tommy]

It's your third attempt to get some setup info in like five (or less) pages.

What? He made an unprovoked claim. Are you saying the correct town response is to ignore that? Because, what, there's a chance scum didn't read the claim?

[Tommy]

Looks like we're heading for a mislynch. Surye and I are both town.

First I’ll answer Surye’s case on me, then Dessew’s. Then I’ll show why Surye is town.

Quick question Tommy, why did it take Rubicon's bring up the claim business with ABR again for you to actually question it?

At the time, I read Albert's analysis and concluded that he was right: masenko's giving-up post implied he was a VT. I hadn't considered until Rubicon pointed it out that it was worth withholding the analysis in order to keep it from scum.

I also find his ABR bussing comments to be testing the water without committing to the idea, since it's clearly not what is going on, and he knows and admits it when put to questioning.

I did think it was possible, though I realised pretty quickly that Aegor couldn’t be implicated too if so. I now doubt it was a bus because Gooner's pre-hammer thoughts were so towny. But what led me that way was Albert's promise that Gooner was scum. Also he'd said something before about taking full responsibility. He was talking like he knew Gooner's alignment. But I guess he just does that. At the moment I'm thinking he could be town after all.

ABR was a lot more talkative in his last scum game.

Nearly at the end of a Day 1 and we gets this gem of meta? What a horrible comment.

Man, everyone's a critic. Kush had issues with this comment as well. At the time, it was really important to me to work out whether I could trust ABR's relentless wagon. Now it's relented, of course. I think the difference between ABR's play style here and in that scum game is quite striking, so I thought you people might be interested. Not so much, as it turns out.

Now, Dessew: I think you were first concerned about me when I said to Fusion, 'If DoctorPepper manages to claim power without being counter-claimed, I'll consider any flashwagon you suggest.’ You interpreted that as an attempt to get some role information. In fact I was talking about how much time was left. I was worried that Fusion was imagining getting in our intent to hammer just before deadline - so I was making the point that a power claim can sometimes mean you have to abort a lynch and quickwagon another player, and it’s best to provide some time for that. But let’s be clear: my aim was to kill Pepper. Still is, actually.

Your other problem (that I know of) was with the way I reacted to Rubicon’s entrance. I still don’t really get the way the town has dealt with Rubicon. It’s not like I was the one who brought up Rubicon’s role - he just claimed it on arrival. There was no vote pressure on him, he just did it. I struggle to see any motivation for that, town or scum. I don’t know if he’s lying. So I need to get more out of him. If he’s town, then obviously scum will be interested in these questions too. Of course I’m aware of that. But it can’t be helped: Rubicon opened a can of worms, and part of effective scum-hunting is to pick through them. It’ll have to wait till Day 2 now, though.

Next I'll show that Surye is town.

I felt he misrepresented masenkoEX early on, but my town read on him started around 163 (somewhat awkwardly, since I was voting for him at the time). This is a businesslike, short post full of pro-town content. Whatever his alignment, this sort of thing helps town. In 195 and 197 he backs down from his position without being forced to - it looks to me like a genuine evolution of his thoughts. In 255, he suspects Aegor, which I agree with. Same goes for 261 and DoctorPepper. Then when he votes Aegor, he criticises the Gooner wagon for not having much to it - and man, was that true. Then he too falls under ABR’s spell and joins the terrible wagon. Point against him. But the ‘still’ thing is bobbins.

I'd much rather lynch Aegor or DoctorPepper than Surye. I will be around at deadline and would lynch Surye to avoid a no-lynch.

[Tommy]

Fusion, Smudger and Kushm4sta: we have less than three hours. Pick a wagon.

[Tommy]

Then why would you not vote me, given that I am closer to a lynch than DP?

Because I have a stronger scum read on DoctorPepper. As I said, I'm available to swing my vote around wildly at deadline if that's required.

What's wrong with my Surye defence?

[Tommy]

I will start swinging at half past.

[Tommy]

DoctorPepper, Albert B. Rampage, Dessew, Surye, Fusion, Aegor. I'm at L-1.

I claim vanilla townie.

[Tommy]

VOTE: Surye

That's L-2.

[Tommy]

L-3 I unvoted Surye to vote you.

So you did. Then if anyone else is around I'm toast. Smudger's deadline performance is especially disappointing.

[Tommy]

I won't self-hammer, no. I'm the only one who can know that a no-lynch is preferable to my flip.

[Tommy]

But you're right that it would be better to have more people on right now.

[Tommy]

You would self-hammer as a VT to give the town information?

[Tommy]

I don't accept that I'm a likely lynch for tomorrow. I was a compromise wagon because we ran out of time.

[Tommy]

We have four chances to lynch right. If I kill myself now, there'll only be three chances left.

[Tommy]

VOTE: Tommy

[Tommy]

If these two are scum, I would like to apologise for having been pressured into a self-hammer. I wish more of you could have been here to help.

[Tommy]

Please look at DoctorPepper tomorrow. The counter-wagon against him inflated in seconds like one of those amazing tents that you throw in the air.

[Tommy]

I think the anti-Tommy case is all in Dessew and Surye's recent posts. Everyone else was just sheeping. Which reminds me. Here's another piece of posthumous wisdom from your village idiot:

DO NOT SLEEPWALK BEHIND ALBERT. FORCE HIM TO MAKE CASES.

Kush, I self-voted because Fusion pointed out it wouldn't reduce the number of lynch attempts the town have. There were three minutes left before deadline.

While we're on things people decided not to do, check out post 481. Hey DoctorPepper, now you know I'm sincere, why not answer that question?

[Tommy]

dessew seems town to me.

[Tommy]

Deadline's passed, Gooner.

[Tommy]

Was I right to self-hammer? I guess Fusion's arithmetic only holds if we make a load of assumptions about the set-up.

[Tommy]

I've never been a Day 1 lynch before. Does anyone have any advice on how I could have played better?

[Tommy]

Okay, thanks for the feedback ABR.