Mini 1556: Greetings Without Spain (GAME OVER FAREWELL)

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sup everyone. Going to read the thread now.

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An extension would be good.

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Also, NO DERP HAMMERS TILL RUB CATCHES UP AND POSTS READS OR SO HELP ME...

I appreciate this, but if you're expecting my help in derailing the Titus wagon, you're probably going to be disappointed.

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Titus is reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllllllllllllyyyyyyy obviously scum.

Like, I have you as a mild town read but you saying you won't even read the case against her is crazy cray.

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I forgot I had said that I preferred a piss lynch, but somewhere between those 2 posts I felt that the Titus wagon would make more sense, given how slow the piss wagon was.

I still think that piss is town,

and I would lynch him because his play has been all over the place, but like kthx has pointed out, his wagon is so slow, I doubt he will get lynched.

On the assumption that this is another scum slip, My vote is going to go back on

VOTE: Xay

PI, I want an explanation of this and (more importantly) your thoughts about the top two wagons ASAP.

I'm probably not going to hammer until you respond.

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Rhinox, quit twisting. Post 383 doesn't say what you are saying.

Either 383 is a slip hat Xay is town or it is a hard defense of his buddy.

Xay's self-clear is independently scummy.

I hate self clears.

How can you not break apart and combine e vents in a logical manner if you are playing logically.


Claiming cuz deadline... Vanilla Scumfinder. Rhinox, Xay, Pisskop. Goodnight.

Titus, I think you're probably scum, but on the off chance that I'm wrong and you want to redeem yourself, now is your chance to respond point-by-point to Rhinos' case on you, and on why the hell you're still pushing this "slip" thing when it's already been explained to you how bullshit that is.

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I don't think pisskop seems scummy at all, tbh.

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Convince me pisskop is scum. You have my full attention. My mind is open to all possibilities.

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#9 is one of those early RVS things that are good for starting discussion but not actually scummy, in my opinion. You could probably find a way to attack his response to pressure about the RVS post, but the post itself is completely null.

I assumed #15 was following up on some lost posts from the downtime, where the previous RVS vote on ika was. (@everyone: Is this wrong?)

#40 is worth looking at more, but a pretty small thing in context.

#68 is a joke. You need to explain how it's scummy if you're gonna include it in a case.

#69 is calling Xay scum, so... not implying Xay is town. There's no contradiction here unless you read a bunch of stuff into his previous posts that isn't there.

#80 makes sense to me in context. People were implying they knew each other IRL. He's correcting them.

#117 is not a naked vote. He explains his read on ika in the previous post:

-on ika:

does everyone feel the need to have giant wall posts and respond with one liners?

all of this shit can be cluttered up and made me merly glance though becasue its just like quotes within quotes about shit.

so far the onyl legit thing i have seen is a case on Kthxbye so im just gonna sheep for now untill we have some real info

VOTE: Kthxbye

This is not my experience with ika. To reduce all the current conversation to as series of one-liners and then proceed to post a practically naked vote on somebody is enough to flag him for watch. This same ika spent pages setting up and playing intellectual games to try to ferret out scum before.
His apparent apathy doesn't seem genuine to me, otherwise he would just request to be placed out instead of just adding to the mess. Im not even getting into his opinion of me in 109, considering everything I've witnessed him do and say. I don't want grudges carried on inter-game, but he makes it so easy sometimes.

I don't understand what you're saying about #264.

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What am I missing?

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I'm a little less confident in Titus-scum after her last couple posts. The meta point that she'd be less stubborn and more agreeable / willing to go along with the majority view as scum is making me reconsider slightly.

Between the top two wagons she'd definitely still be my choice, though. I don't think pisskop is scum. I think kthx is tunneling hard on that but the case is pretty bad.

If someone wants to try a last minute quick wagon on one of these people, I'd be down:

Aisa
ICEninja
Lucresia

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Aisa is the scum hanging out in the background of these two wagons, popping in occasionally to make a (usually fence-sitty) observation about something, or reply to direct questions that she can't ignore. She's not actively scumhunting.

Her interactions with the Titus slot are terrible: The question about "filler" above, which he never responded to and she never followed up on; then completely ignoring the discussion about ika's lack of motivation and replacement.

Her next mention of the slot is a full week later, when she leaves Titus out of her reads list except, presumably, to lump her in with "everyone else is nullish/hasn’t posted enough for me to figure out his alignment" (which is bullshit given Titus' posts at that point).

She then makes this weak defense of Titus to Thomith. Note that she's defending Titus against a minor side point, arguably one the weakest points against her.

I understand your reasoning, but it's a bit too Wifom for my taste. She could very well be genuine, so I wouldn't trust this as much as you seem to be doing right now.

Then there's this waffly, fence-sitty post which nonetheless manages to defend Titus again from pressure:

I think it's probable she realized that her reason for voting Pk

was

is bad, then made up a reasoning. Problem is, I can sense a possible town motivation. Maybe she just thought that admitting that she was wrong was worse move. I'm hesitant to believe she's scum because of this.
I'm willing to move my vote, but I'd do so reluctantly.

This post is terrible. She thinks Titus probably made up the reason for her vote, but "can sense a possible town motivation". She's "hesitant" to believe Titus could be scum. She would still vote Titus, of course, but "reluctantly".

IceNinja is more of a gut read. I don't like his insistence that one of the two wagons "must" be scum, or his attempts to chain lynches based on flips. I don't like the reasoning he's using for these chains, like saying PI is more likely to be scum if Titus flips

town

, which doesn't make much sense to me. Or: "Oh and to amend Rhinox's 3 possibilities, Titus flips town and piss is lynched record speed tomorrow. Rhinox then takes the fallout day 3."

I don't know if Lucresia is scum, but I'd kind of like to wagon her anyway. The jump onto the Titus wagon rubbed me wrong.

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That or you can tell me how his hammer that wasn't a hammer was from town....like, at all. Please give me a town motivation for that. If you can, then I may try and go through his posting and see if the rest might could come from a town mindset as well. For instance, his sudden jump from pushing me as scum to his counter wagon Titus. I mean, come on, if he's town, he didn't even try to get me lynched once a shiney new counter wagon to his formed. He hopped on and just rides it.

It's w/e at this point. If I'm right and Titus flips town, PK should die so fast tomorrow I'll be happy enough.

I think pisskop would do all of those things as town. Titus flipping town probably won't affect my opinion of him much.

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I'll be back online before deadline to hammer Titus if no one else does.

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Hey everyone let's lynch Aisa today

VOTE: Aisa

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1) We most likely have found a scum in kthx.

I think kthx is town. His activity, emotional instability, tunneling on you, questionable but very real analysis of the game, etc. reminds me of every overly aggressive tunneling VT ever.

What do you think of them apples?

I should not have to ask the the "why" of posts 457 and 463....

Because wagons are awesome and you already wagoned pisskop once, and nearly lynched him. We've got two weeks, let's look at other people. (This is partly me trying to get you to break your death tunnel, by the way.)

Read 436 again and then join me on Aisa.

All the cool people have their votes on Aisa.

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By the way, what specifically led to the banging head GIF reaction?

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What do you think of them apples?

It upsets my reads some that Titus was town. I still find him scummy, but Titus proved I was wrong once. What is your take on Ice?

Could definitely see ICE being scum.

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PI, could you explain your earlier comment about Xay slipping? And what are your thoughts about Aisa?

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How come?

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replacements pls

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I'll give this my attention in the morning

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I feel bad about this, so I'm going to just dive in and try to get something going.

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If this game just kind of fizzled and died, I honestly wouldn't even mind at this point.

Just saying.

I'll give this game a couple more days before I'm out of here.

This is pretty terrible tbh.

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Moderator:
You might think about PM'ing people to ask them to replace in. Cabd, Wisdom, ffery, mastin, etc. Maybe find another game that needs a cross-replacement. And put it in your signature, when I modded my game I found that worked surprisingly well.

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It would be hilarious if all the missing players were scum.

I consider the odds of that to be almost 0% though.

Which means one of you from the last page is probably scum.

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ICENinja
Rhinox
Xayzeck

Rhinox is relatively town.

ICENinja is probably still scum.

Xay... could be scum.

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pisskop

- He's scum. Yesterday should be enough evidence of this for him to have been lynched already.

I thought maybe him disappearing was a bad sign, but I think he's flaked from his other games too. If this game doesn't pick up I'll lynch him with you. Would rather we just get a bunch of replacements who inject some activity into this lifeless husk of a game, though.

ICEninja

- Mainly due to d3x dying and his blatant sheep onto Titus while 'sharing concerns' about the PK wagon not going anywhere. I basically see PK's 'suspicion' of Ice as distancing.

Agree completely.

Rubicon

- Mainly due to taking over KCDA.

Kcda was super town.

To the max.

Thomith

- If I'm wrong about any of the above, this is the next place I'd look. Check out that ISO.

Agree.

Lucresia

- who knows...though leaning ever so slightly town

Agree.

Aisa

- Lucky for her she was on PK yesterday. Could be scum not putting all their eggs in one basket though.

Yeah, I don't think this means anything. Her posts are terrible. I'll give whoever replaces her time to convince me I'm wrong though.

PrivateI

- ....probably town that doesn't care enough to play. I don't see someone replacing in, getting a scum role that isn't under suspicion, and then proceeding to do such a piss poor shit job of reading the game they replaced into.

There's almost nothing there to analyze, but I think he's maybe town by meta? I was just scum with him in another game, and he was way better than this, could have faked looking useful better than this if he was scum.

Xayzeck

- If PK flips scum, I'm pretty sure Xay and PK aren't crafty enough to be scum partners to pull off the fake hammer from D1. Piss poor reads though and will probably make it to end game sadly.

Agree, but think that between {pisskop, Xay} the scum is Xay.

Rhinox

- Hard town read even though he was the leader of the counter wagon to PK.

Agree, and that's a mark in his favor, haha.

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So since Aisa is going to be replaced and is unlikely to ever respond to me, what do you guys think of my case against her slot from the end of D1? What do you agree/disagree with? This question is addressed to everyone, but would prefer Kthx answer last (unless everyone ignores me in which case I'll take what I can get).

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I guess I am willing to look elsewhere. You should know however, I never got PK anywhere close to getting lynched which bothers me to no end. I have a town read on the pusher of the counter wagon though so I dont know...

VOTE: aisa

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. This isn't just looking elsewhere, this is completely opposite of your belief.

You think pkop is scum and you think evidence of that is you never got a lot of support for his wagon. The implication is that if pisskop was town, then scum would have flocked to the wagon for the mislynch.

So you look elsewhere... by voting the only living player who was on the piss wagon? That just doesn't make any sense to me. If you really thought the fact that pkop's wagon didn't take off because he's scum and his partners were reluctant to bus, then I'd expect you as town to consider Aisa to be more likely town. At the very least, I'd expect you to have more of a reason to vote than just sheeping Rubicon, who is the replacement for Kcda, who you spent all D1 thinking was a VI, then scum.

This is why I can never fully trust you and buy in completely that you are town kthx.

Kthx voted Aisa because I asked him to help me wagon her, and he realized this was productive. I thought this was obvious.

That said, I'd say this probably rules out Rhinox/Aisa as a team.

Aisa being on the pisskop wagon means absolutely nothing regardless of either of their alignments.

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Xay is scum if either you or Rubicon is town. Asia is scum if PrivateI is town.

Ice, I don't understand the assumption about Xay. Can you explain that?

PK, why Ice? It really looks like OMGUS, and I don't like it here.

Xay, what the hell are you doing with Post 463 and Post 466? Was anyone pressuring you to switch?

Xay continually does whatever he can to appease the town, and it's majorly scummy. With that in mind,

VOTE: Xay

PI may actually be scum.

Probably not with Aisa.

Actually this reminds me of reasons to think Xay is town.

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If there isn't scum in that group then town deserves to lose, let's be real. Town can't have that many village idiots and come out on top. That being said I would eat my hat if there wasn't one, and would still be modestly surprised if there isn't 2, unless Asia is scum.

This is actually relatively town?

Unless there really is scum in that group and ICE knows it.

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I should fake claim a PR.

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No, that would probably get me lynched or something.

Because I'm not a PR and would by lying.

Definitely not a PR here, guys.

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Hang on, I know what I can do to spice things up.

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Rubicon

- Mainly due to taking over KCDA.

The fuck is this? Go die in a fire.

VOTE: Kthxbye

That is literally the worst reason for someone to give for a vote. I didn't fucking join this game and try to WORK with you just so you could wave your fucking hand and dismiss everything town I've done with "well your predecessor was scummy so YOU'RE SCUM TOO". No. Fuck no, fuck that. Your scumhunting is fake and your reads are made up to look like you're doing something, but you're not. I am done putting up with this shit, it's downright insulting and I can't believe people are taking you seriously for it.

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Why bother with reaction testing, especially after saying it's a reaction test? And even if you didn't say it, over 1 read?

(To stimulate conversation, not to get reactions.)

Why did you quote my question about Aisa and not respond to it?

What do you mean by "over 1 read"?

It even feels like you're faking re-evaluation of reads, transparency and active posting to appear more town, and even if you weren't faking it, it was a bad idea.

Okay, let's work with this. Why was it a bad idea if I

wasn't

faking it?

It all leaves a bad taste in my mouth, and I'd be willing to wagon you at this point if we had a more active playerlist.

But you won't vote me now? How come?

"It all leaves a bad taste in my mouth" is weird phrasing btw. Exaggerated.

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It was a Q+ derp.

Respond to it, please.

You voted him over his read on you, regardless of his protown play. It's super OMGUS too.

I don't stand for that kind of thing. I just don't.

Because it felt fake, even if you didn't fake it, and it doesn't even feel like you made much progress in those posts. You flipflopped between reads, and started on a new wagon on probably the most town person here.

Why do you think I did that?

Because pisskop's wagon has more people, and is easier to lynch. Given that the playerlist is mostly gone, trying to push your lynch would be much harder than pushing for piss's. And we need a flip to hopefully get the game moving again.

So you want a flip on a player from a wagon full of people who don't care about it and just want something to happen? What will that tell you if, for example, pisskop flips town? Hell, even if he flips scum. We'll be back here tomorrow and it will still be just, like, five of us except scum'll probably shoot someone so the thread will be even more dead.

Of the players who are NOT gone, do you think anyone is scum (other than me)?

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I mean, your approach to these wagons has been pretty bad. You vote pisskop, you vote Aisa, you vote pisskop again. You call me scum but don't want to even try to wagon me. You seem to care more about which wagon has the most steam than who is actually scum. Why is that?

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I'm messing around Kthx.

Xay, still waiting on a response.

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I'm feeling more confident than ever that the team is piss, Rub, and PI.

If piss were my buddy I'd either be on his wagon or lurking it out.

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Or maybe I just think pisskop is town and that having someone oppose it is more useful later no matter what he flips.

I don't follow the argument that too much derp in the game -> scum can't manage 3 mislynch wagons. It seems like that's the opposite of true. The town players tunnel on each other while the scum (like Aisa) hang out in the background unsuspected.

(I do think Xay may be scum, though.)

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Fair enough. What I disagree with is the assumption that scum would need to have pushed the wagons at all if townies were going at each other.

It seems like a town assumption? I don't know if you would say that if you were the scum in this scenario.

I don't understand why this game is falling apart like this. D1 was actually pretty interesting. Also PI is posting in other games and Lucresia has logged in recently..

VOTE: Xay

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Aisa, Lucresia, you, maybe Thomith based on d1.

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So Rubicon, if Xay dies and flips town with Titus dead an having flipped town, you'll still

legitimately

believe that piss is town?

Don't get me wrong, I don't have great feelings about Xay and you might be right about him, but if piss flips scum I know who I'm instantly voting.

pisskop is nowhere near the top of my scum list and unless his replacement is particularly bad I don't see myself voting him anytime soon, yes

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Also hiya Equinox, RedCoyote, evil.

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VOTE: evil

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I love my new black username.

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Red, you have the unfortunate and possibly insurmountable task of addressing how the wagons behaved during day 1 (just looking at the vote counts alone should give the picture) and explain why I shouldn't vote for you. The main wagons throughout the day were your slot, Xay, and the mislynch Titus.

Due to the sheer amount of derp in this game, I don't feel like it is possible that there were enough good scum to be pushing multiple mislynches and that almost assuredly one of the counter wagons during day 1 is scum. Your slot was the counter wagon to BOTH, and your slot had a very difficult time holding any momentum as the focus of town's spotlight, despite a couple players very intensely accusing piss of being scum.

If Xay is lynched and flips town, I will be almost completely convinced of your guilt. I'd give Xay about a 30% chance to flip scum, and about a 10% chance that you're both scum, based on the information I currently have.

I believe your scum buddies are PrivateI OR Asia (more likely PI) and someone else on the mislynch wagon, with Rubicon being far and away the most likely as a 3rd candidate. (P.EDIT: Rubicon's last post definitely cements this theory).

Hello, by the way. I remember you from at least one game we've played together.

You're doing a thing which I've started associating with scum lately, constructing an artificial scenario that you are "completely convinced" is true and using it as a way to tunnel on specific players. Kind of a shortcut to appearing to scumhunt.

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All right, I'm gonna read RC's wall. Wish me luck. Back in a couple hours probably.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk

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Can you explain your reasoning for those associative tells?

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@ICE, there's a post for you on the bottom of the last page. I'm specifically interested in the thing you said about Xay's flip changing your mind about Aisa/pacman.

Thoughts from pages skim:
First of all it's a bitch to follow the early game while keeping replacements in mind
I haven't gotten as far as what Xay claimed yet but I'm feeling nothing but scum vibes coming from him. For instance 55 and 57 where he has a stupid overreaction, votes someone who was town pretty clearly and then when it's cleared up in 57, doesn't unvote.
I skipped ahead to day 2
Well looks like I didn't replace into the best position. There's a lot of PoE going on ("Aisa is scum if x is town" and crap like that) that makes me really uncomfortable, probably because I deliberately ignored all Aisa's posts. None of them seem to be being explained though so hopefully we can just dismiss that.
481 is more Xay scumposting. Also I haven't seen a claim anywhere from him. Screw it

vote: Xayzeck

The main reason I guess is for egregious inconsistencies between voting activity and stated reads.

I can parlay with a pisskop lynch first if people think it's a good idea.
Rubicon and ICEninja and kthxbye all read town to me. Least certain is probably Ice.

I'll have to go read the last few pages before the hammer huh? Ok I'll get to that after submitting this post. My experience with pisskop is that he's low-hanging fruit, easy to lynch and plays in a way that makes you really want to do it but when I was scumreading him in recent game he ended up being town. Xayzeck on the other hand, (there seems to be a dichotomy dividing this such that either Xay or piss is scum but certainly not both) is weirdly (to me) not being scum read enough for the awful play. I think someone alluded to a claim he made but I can't find anything on that from skimming his iso and stuff.

oh 580 is very helpful, thank you.
oooooh Xay claimed VT. Ok.
So I'm caught up (for all intents and purposes) and happy with my vote.

This post is my #1 objection to the Xay wagon. This post is fucking terrible.

pacman: Please give me your top 3 scum reads w/ reasons. Xay, ___, and ___?

Also please give me your thoughts about the Thomith/Equinox slot (Thomith had loads of content so this is an easy one) and explain your town read on ICENinja in concrete terms (i.e., not just "he reads town").

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Rubicon: have you read my posts since then?

Yup. Top 3 scum reads w/ reasons.

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N - what do you think of Xay's interactions w/ d3x early on? If you ISO them both, it's the part starting around post 55 and ends around 160.

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I'll hammer in a few minutes

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Any last words?

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VOTE: Xayzeck

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You scum?

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VOTE: pacman

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Rubicon: have you read my posts since then?

Yup. Top 3 scum reads w/ reasons.

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Also please give me your thoughts about the Thomith/Equinox slot (Thomith had loads of content so this is an easy one) and explain your town read on ICENinja in concrete terms (i.e., not just "he reads town").

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Just bumping those for your convenience, pacman

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I don't think you would claim hider unless you were a hider considering the game OP says there's one. Pending a CC let's assume you're telling the truth. This does not mean you were targeted during the night, because the game OP also says there's "one standard protective role" in addition to the hider. (It also doesn't make you confirmed town, although your role might.)

me - town
Titus, d3x, Xayzeck - confirmed town
IceNinja, Equinox, N - cleared if your claim is true
Kthxbye - probably town

That leaves pisskop, fitz, Aisa, and Rhinox. With Aisa being most likely scum in that group imo, along with probably fitz, and one of {pisskop, Rhinox}.

You realize if you're town and telling the truth we can probably solve this today based on interactions alone? I'm actually wary because that seems TOO good for d3 after two mislynches.

Equinox, what were you going to say about the way the moderator listed information about the setup in the OP?

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ICE - why did you think Thomith was town d1?

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The mind boggles.

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pacman: I still want your reads w/ reasons, in case you were wondering.

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We can probably confirm one more town tonight if we co-ordinate well and then the game will be pretty easy to win via PoE.

Side note, there's no way this works unless Bob's reviewers were on drugs when they looked at the setup

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I think we have a scum doctor, or (maybe more likely) a scum jailkeeper masquerading as a doctor.

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-This setup features at least one Vanilla Townie, at least one non-standard Hider-like role, at least one standard protective role, and exactly one anti-town faction.

Notably does NOT say that the Hider and protective roles are town.

Putting this in the OP makes a lot more sense if one of them is scum.

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pacman: Why did you claim?

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I don't see the logic of assuming that pacman is a scum doctor. Tracker and hider interact very nicely, and a doctor is a pretty weak town PR in my opinion. This tells me there is a VERY high likelihood of a scum role blocker. Role blocker + 2 goons vs. tracker + doc + screwy hider sounds like a balanced setup to me really. It also makes sense since every role is track-able, which mods tend to like to do.

Why do you think the mod deliberately revealed roles that are in the setup? Not just roles in the setup, but

specific

roles while leaving out the tracker and anything else we might have.

The fact that Rubicon is pushing that one of the PRs is anti-town leads me to believe he's probably scum. With my calling out the scum team, that's pretty much his only play. I got kind of lucky surviving both nights and confirming two town.

It fits with the mod listing roles that exist - makes much more sense if one of the roles is scum. If the setup is roleblocker + 2 goons versus tracker + doctor + hider, there's absolutely no reason for this not to be a regular closed setup.

If both you and evilpacman are town, then from my perspective scum must be 3 players within {havingfitz, Red Coyote, Rhinox, kthxbye}, which is not impossible, but Rhinox and kthxbye both seem town. It would basically mean my reads have been 100% wrong all game which tbh I think is unlikely - I should have called at least one scum by now haha. I realize everyone else can say, "well Rubicon is scum so it doesn't need to be one of those two", but I know that is false.

Assuming you're telling the truth, I can be lynched today and still win, if there's a solid town bloc inside {you, Equinox, N}. So I'm just going to keep saying what I think and not worry about what you think of it.

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Hm, well this is a closed setup but you may have a point.

Maybe to fuck with your power?

Why do you think the mod did that then?

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I'm just really, really put off by this PoE. Not that I'm in it, but the other names. Like if Rhinox is town, I'm supposed to believe kthxbye is scum? With pisskop, of all people? How does that work?

Rhinox/RC/fitz is

possible

, I guess.

Why did you think Thomith was town D1, ICE?

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I can see Kthx as a scum buddy with piss because piss was a bad teammate, wanted to bus for town cred. Obviously would have worked. Then suddenly a good player (RC) replaces in to the slot and suddenly he wants to keep teammate around. It kind of makes sense.

It would, but that didn't happen. Kthx's second-to-last post before flaking was -

If Xay flips town, you are going to insta lynch RC.

Also, the continued thing with coming up with convoluted "slips" to accuse the slot of (and note that he did this to RC too, so your theory fails there too) just doesn't look like bussing: It's easy for scum to see the *real* scummy things their partners are doing, they don't need to make stuff up. (Aisa's early posts look more like bussing, claims aside.)

You're the much more likely candidate for that scum slot though.

How could I possibly fit as a buddy for pisskop/RC? I don't understand how anyone could possibly think that. I fit even less than kthxbye does.

Also, I'd say fitz is almost a guaranteed shoe-in for scum at this point, assuming we don't actually have any weird mafia doctor shenanigans.

Probably.

We need some more replacements.

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Thinking on it though, I dont want Xay anywhere near end game either. If people dont see how PKs slot is scum, then I think I would be ok with getting Xay out sooner rather than later...

If Xay flips town, then lynching RC will be that much easier even if I am dead come morning...kinda impossible to not see how PKs slot is scum with a Xay town flip. Would be the most useful contribution from Xay so far this game as well.

On the off chance I AM wrong and Xay flipped scum, then it would be nice to have a town RC around...

Hmmmm.....

I think I just convinced myself to

VOTE: Xay

Oh you're talking about this.

I suppose this could be a reaction to RC replacing into a buddy slot, considering it was before RC's catch up.

[Rubicon]

evilpacman, how's your reevaluation coming?

[Rubicon]

fitz hasn't posted in 8 days

[Rubicon]

N's right that hiders can't be roleblocked.

I want ICE to target me.

[Rubicon]

Well either one of RC and pacman is lying.

Why?

Hmmmm. Well, at least one of them is for sure scum. Going to look back later when not on phone.

Why?

[Rubicon]

@ICE:

Titus, Vanilla Townie, was lynched on day 1.
d3x, Tracker, was killed on night 1.

me = pisskop
Thom = Equinox
Kcda = Rubicon
Lord = Rhinox
Aisa = pacman
Konowa = PrivateI

Xay (VT)

This setup features at least one non-standard Hider-like role, at least one standard protective role, and exactly one anti-town faction.

Why did RC saying this last sentence not bother you?

[Rubicon]

Well, you're a town hider and out of nowhere your top scum read declares that a town hider exists in the setup. I'd expect that to bother you. It would bother me.

[Rubicon]

I kind of want to no-lynch today. Thoughts?

[Rubicon]

As for ICE, we get info from him whether he dies or not. Scum have info now that he must hide behind a smaller pool of people. My suggestion is that RC does not commute tonight and ICE hides behind RC while pacman protects RC.

I wonder what happens if RC does commute, though. Does ICE die?

Scum commuter would basically be a godfather to ICE's hider role, makes a fair amount of sense.

I agree that pisskop commuting n1 is weird - looks like him trying to avoid a cop check.

[Rubicon]

I'm actually not sure how to feel about RC's claim. Normals are allowed one experimental role, and I thought the non-typical Hider would occupy that slot, but if he's a Commuter then he would obviously have to be the one role. Or maybe Bob's reviewers looked at posting the thing in the rules as making it so the Hider was Normal as is; it really depends on who they were.

Is commuter experimental? I don't stay up on that stuff, but I see them all the time.

Regardless, I have no duty to protect my top town read, especially when I sensed, probably correctly, that Equinox was a prime target.

What made you think Equinox was a prime target? I wouldn't have guessed it, myself.

Any other questions? As far as my reads, I'd probably wanna start by lynching Rubicon based on his reaction to my claim or RedCoyote based on him lying (he's claimed scum from my perspective, of course) but really it doesn't matter, since like I said, this game seems won.

Please give me reads w/ reasons on the following players:

Rhinox
Kthxbye
havingfitz

[Rubicon]

This post is not a counterclaim.

I hate you all.

Next time you're around, could you say what you were thinking about the moderator listing info about the setup?

[Rubicon]

If you click on that second link, commuter is one of the standard protective roles that the Mod said he would choose from. This coupled with the fact that pacman is not playing as town at all tells me that pacman is lying either about his role, his alignment, or both.

I agree about pacman's play, but the OP says "at least 1" so I don't think we should 1v1 the two of you based on roles. At least not before mass claiming and seeing whether doc+commuter makes sense.

Well, you're a town hider and out of nowhere your top scum read declares that a town hider exists in the setup. I'd expect that to bother you. It would bother me.

What are you talking about? I copied that straight from the Mod's rules so I wouldn't forget it as I was reading though the game and looking for claims/crumbs/etc. It had nothing to do with ICE or anyone else.

Right, but ICE says he didn't know the mod had posted that stuff until later. At the point you posted it, he should have freaked out at you knowing his role existed. I was trying to figure out if ICE might have been trying to bolster his credibility by pretending he didn't know the mod had already mentioned hiders.

He says he just didn't read your spoiler though.

Look, guys, I think y'all are talking about the wrong things here. I do not think we should be lynching from fitz/Rubicon/Rhinox/Kthx. I think we should be lynching pacman. Not to toot my own horn, but I think I've laid out a pretty solid case against the man. ICE, Rubicon, and N all sounded at least a bit skeptical of pacman's claim, imo. That feeling in your gut is put there for a reason. That's your instinct telling you that something's not right.

Most people have a gut scum read on you.

[Rubicon]

Scum commuter would basically be a godfather to ICE's hider role, makes a fair amount of sense.

I agree that pisskop commuting n1 is weird - looks like him trying to avoid a cop check.

Scum commuter? I've never heard of that. Scum hider? I've never heard of that. Scum doctor? I have heard of that. Granted, it's uncommon, and given the apparent lack of a Vig/SK/third party, it's kind of pointless. But, heck, maybe pacman is a role cop that thought that claim seemed to scummy.

Seriously, if you can show me one instance of a scum commuter or scum hider, I'll drop this point, but I've never heard of it.

I spent some time yesterday looking into this. I've personally been a mafia commuter/doctor combo before, but it was a multiball game with a vigilante: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=26483

Considering commuters are untargetable by cops, etc. in addition to vigilantes, I think it could make sense, especially in a setup where scum can die if targeted by a Hider. I'm still not sure whether Hiders die if they target a commuter, though. The thing the mod just quoted might suggest they don't.

Mafia hiders exist, but usually in games with an SK, like this one: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=38331

Since this setup has no SK, I don't know what the point of a mafia hider would be.

[Rubicon]

This thread says commuter resolves before hider in NAR:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p4939250

[Rubicon]

especially in a setup where scum can die if targeted by a Hider.

*where the hider dies if targeting scum, I mean.

[Rubicon]

That part about Little Italy games rarely/never having mafia commuters is making me reevaluate a bit. It means the prior probability of Red Coyote being scum is fairly low if his claim is true.

[Rubicon]

They could have tried to shoot ICE.
/shrug

[Rubicon]

This thread says commuter resolves before hider in NAR:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p4939250

More importantly,

the mod of this game

says Commuter resolves before Hider.

Missed that.

[Rubicon]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Rhinox

I'm starting to feel like this is the way to go.

[Rubicon]

I'm going back to what I said about the entire scum team not being in the list of missing players on day 2: With Xay flipping town, ICE probably being a town hider, that leaves Rhinox and Kthx as the only active players from that point who didn't disappear. Rhinox didn't flake out, but looking at his posts, his play fits reasonably well with what I'd expect from a scum player when the game is grinding to a halt. Especially if the rest of his team had abandoned him (after all the work he put into looking town and positioning his team D1).

The best thing he's contributed since the start of D2 was a 1,040 word case against ICEninja which he promptly dropped and never followed up on (even though ICE responded, and asked a question about it).

[Rubicon]

(There's also a pretty strong PoE argument to point to Rhinox: If all the claims are true, Rhinox is guaranteed scum. If RC is lying, Rhinox was one of the strongest voices leading the Titus counterwagon to pisskop on D1. If EPM is lying, Rhinox is his most likely buddy along with fitz.)

[Rubicon]

I kind of want to no-lynch today. Thoughts?

Why do/did you want to no-lynch? that sounds like a horrible idea to me

Because tomorrow is likely LyLo if we mislynch and we have three PR claims that scum will want to shoot into. Letting them take care of evilpacman, for example, might well be a good strategy following the no-kill from last night. What do you think about the idea?

The best thing he's contributed since the start of D2 was a 1,040 word case against ICEninja which he promptly dropped and never followed up on (even though ICE responded, and asked a question about it).

So what does this mean, exactly? What does it have to do with my alignment? What does the number of words in my post have to do with anything? Why do you feel the need to add hyperbole to make your point stronger?

It means that you put substantial effort into appearing to be scumhunting, and then didn't actually scumhunt. You wrote a long, extended case against someone, and then ignored their response. It means you cared more about

making

the case (or being seen to have made it) then about discovering ICEninja's alignment or putting him under real pressure.

The POE isn't really necessary to pad your case with

This is the sort of thing that makes me suspicious of you. You're framing a legitimate point against you - that no matter what winds up happening with the claims, you are highly probable as the next suspect even without regard for your behavior - as an attempt to "pad a case". In other words, you're deflecting pressure against you by doubtcasting the person doing the pressure.

There's a thread of doubtcasting underlying many of your posts, for example when you pressured kthxbye for voting RC for bad reasons, and then doubtcasted him for realizing you were right and unvoting.

because any of the 4 of me/you/kthx/fitz can say the same about the other, and to anyone outside the group of the 4 of us, it is not yet POE to them. So are you saying that you 100% believe all the claims then? I mean, kthx and I both use the same POE and we both basically say the same thing: that it doesn't agree with our reads. You seem to be ignoring your reads (you've called me solid town pretty much all game) and are basing the POE on if all claims are true, without actually making a statement whether you believe all claims are true or not.

Here again, you're doing the same. You're ignoring the inconvenient part of the post you're quoting (about you being scum if one of the claims is false), and then doubtcasting me as "ignoring my reads" (false), "basing the POE on if all claims are true" (false), and not making a statement about which claims are true or not (false).

Also earlier in the game, weren't you the one who said that the fact I led the counterwagon on Titus was a mark in my favor? yes, here: 529. Now its a point against me?

It's a strong mark against you if RC is scum, as stated in the part you're replying to. (Once again...)

Equinox IMO woulda been a solid kill choice N2 based on reputation alone if I'm scum and the other 'nox is replacing in as town, thats why it really made the most sense as the explanation for the no kill.

Why did you say this?

Rhinox didn't flake out, but looking at his posts, his play fits reasonably well with what I'd expect from a scum player when the game is grinding to a halt. Especially if the rest of his team had abandoned him (after all the work he put into looking town and positioning his team D1).

Well I did kind of flake out for most of D2 due to IRL stuff. But, if you knew how I play as scum at all you'd know this isn't even close to describing how I'd react/play as scum. I hate being scum. I'm awkward and don't know how to interact with scum partners. I do much much better as a lone wolf. I wouldn't be frustrated at all with flakey scum partners, because it'd make it a hell of a lot easier for me to play. I'd probably have bussed them and tried to go it alone, and then eventually I'd get POE'd because I'm bad at making up convincing sounding cases on townies. I know this is a load of wifom but anyone who's seen my attempts at playing scum would know its true. Its like a pooky promise I have absolutely no control over, because I'm just that bad/transparent when I'm scum.

Could you give me an example of a recent scum game reflecting these aspects of your meta?

[Rubicon]

Kthx: Hiders can't hide behind commuters. It's kind of a phrasing thing. If ICE hides behind scum, he dies, and nothing can prevent that. But since a commuter is considered to have "left the game" while commuting, ICE can't hide behind one in the first place, so he doesn't die. N apparently got confirmation of this from Bob.

[Rubicon]

I assume that fitz is going to be replaced today since he hasn't responded to Bob's prod.

[Rubicon]

I do not support a Rhinox lynch at all. Rhinox was and is my favorite player for town

Noted, I'll just have to lynch him without your help then.

[Rubicon]

Or ICE, for that matter, and then they can say "oh look, RC killed ICE".

Hider is protected from kills.

[Rubicon]

Yeah, but that's a theme game. I should've been more clear. I meant in the universe of normal games.

Agreed, this is a mistake I was making up until Equinox's post.

[Rubicon]

I don't think it's possible to be opposed to a fitz lynch because his slot has never done anything to have an opinion about.

[Rubicon]

or do you actually think I'm scummy

Yes.

So that is 1 post out of my now 53 posts in this thread you are basing this conclusion on. Do you think the rest of my play supports your belief that I as scum am interested in appearing to scumhunt without actually scumhunting? Do you not believe me when I say I was dealing with some shit IRL right around the time you say I was disinterested in scumhunting?

I don't think out-of-game stuff has anything to do with your alignment. But yeah, your D2/D3 scumhunting has been weak and I can pretty easily see your D1 stuff from (talented) scum.

I don't really understand what you're trying to say regarding "doubtcasting".

Doubt-casting is when you try to make another player look bad by, for example, attacking them for a poor case and then attacking them for withdrawing the case (implying you care more about the attack then the case), or misrepresent people to cast suspicion on them, or other ways of trying to make a person look worse.

I'm not ignoring anything. It looks like you're trying to add bonus points to your case ("Rhinox is guarenteed scum if all claims are true"), but if the liklihood that all claims are true is very small, then this is essentially a meaningless point that servers no purpose other than to make the idea of lynching me sound more appealing to others.

The point is that we have a number of branching possibilities based on which, if any, of the claims are false and you are likely scum in all of them. It's not an attempt to add 'bonus points', it's another argument against you. Calling that 'meaningless' doesn't make it meaningless.

Especially when you are also saying things like the below out of the other side of your mouth:

It's a strong mark against you if RC is scum, as stated in the part you're replying to. (Once again...)

If you think RC is scum and that is a mark against me, then why even bring up how I'm guarenteed scum if all claims are true? You need to decide what your argument really is.

...Because you are, and we don't have flips from any of those players yet.

I asked you do you believe all the claims or not, why didn't you answer?

Because I've been really straightforward about my thoughts about the claims, and if you haven't read my ISO to find out then I assume you don't actually care about my answer.

Assuming all claims are true requires a you/fitz/Kthx team which I don't accept because I don't think Kthx is scum. I don't believe EPM. I've had a town-read on RC's slot all game, but I recognize that I'm one of the only ones, and that his claim could be a scum role. I think the point that Little Italy games have rarely/never included a mafia commuter means if he's scum, he's probably not a commuter. I'm basically ruling out ICEninja being a scum hider because it makes no sense without an SK.

Regarding this comment, earlier in the game you didn't qualify the mark in my favor with an "unless pkop is scum" addendum. And you can't even say it should have been assumed because in the same post 529 you had at best a null read on pkop and you were willing to lynch him if the game didn't pick up.

pisskop was my strongest town-read through D1. I don't know how you could have missed that. That's why it was a mark in your favor. If pisskop was actually scum, obviously the logic does not apply. In 529, I was more than willing to lynch anyone if the game didn't pick up, including my strongest town-read.

You also said in 470 "Because wagons are awesome" - basically, I extrapolated from your comments that wagons, specifically counterwagons are good things and those pushing them are doing good town things... so, did I misinterpret your comments then? Because i'm not ignoring that you said "If RC is scum" at all that is the part that sticks out to me, because you never said it like that before. Why was leading the Titus counterwagon ever a mark in my favor then? pkop/RC could always be scum, and at the time you said it (without the qualifier) I don't see you having more than a null feeling on pkop.

Wagons are awesome, and one of the reasons wagons are awesome is because later you can look at them in context, knowing the flips of some of the people involved. If RC is scum, then the context is you starting a counterwagon on a townie, potentially to save a buddy.

Could you give me an example of a recent scum game reflecting these aspects of your meta?

I don't have a recent scum game. Before I replaced into this game I hadn't played anything besides marathons and maybe an /invitational in a couple years. I can look through my bookmarks and see what I can find for you tho. I know there's some real comedy worthy performances in there some where.

Please don't use self-meta if you don't have games to back it up.

[Rubicon]

We are

not

lynching Rhinox today. The fact that Rubicon is pushing for this makes me more and more confident that I'm right about the scum lineup, as attempting to lynch Rhinox feels like a Hail Mary last resort strategy to clutch a win.

I'm still hoping you hide behind me so I can be conftown and stop putting up with this shit, haha.

[Rubicon]

I just noticed that EPM called Red Coyote confirmed scum from his perspective and then didn't vote him.

[Rubicon]

Probably best.

[Rubicon]

ICE: What's your current read on Kthx?

[Rubicon]

Well, I've been attempting to pressure you because you haven't been under serious pressure before in the game. If ICE, Equinox, N, you and me are all town, the scum have to be in Kthxbye, Red Coyote, fitz, epicpacman: But there are a lot of reasons to think both Kthxbye and Red Coyote are town.

But your reactions do seem very genuine, so I don't know.

I think the way forward may be to act as if the game had 2 scum (fitz and pacman, most likely) and not worry about a third until we have them flipped and the game doesn't end.

UNVOTE:

[Rubicon]

(Intent to hammer fitz sooner or later.)

[Rubicon]

After playing through too many situations in my mind, I have decided to not announce who I plan to hide behind. With a scum lynch today, there will be 3 players who will result in my death and 1 who I am not allowed to hide behind, but 5 players safe to hide behind.

I'll take those odds.

I thought this through more and realized how terrible an idea it is.

You shouldn't be aiming for players you think are town, at all. And if you're going to aim for scum then you need to say who it is, so your death isn't completely useless.

[Rubicon]

There's one scum in Rhinox, kthxbye, and fitz. People think it's fitz, that's fine with me, I think kthxbye is town for sure, Rhinox, shrug. We can lynch fitz. I'll probably die tonight, that'll clear RC for a lynch. Then Rubicon for the game. Easy. You guys and all your speculating, so paranoid. That's town of you I guess.

I'm starting to think epicpacman might be scum or something

[Rubicon]

Okay, other people who you don't think are scum should chime in on this, but let's say you aim for scum and tell us who it is. You have a few options based on your reads: Red Coyote, EPM, me.

If you target Red Coyote and he's town, he can commute, and scum can't kill either of you.

If you target EPM and he's town, scum will be forced to shoot him. But if you don't target him, we'll probably lynch him tomorrow anyway unless you hit scum somewhere else.

By targeting him, you force scum to either kill him (saving us a mislynch and keeping N/Equinox alive) or leave him alive to protect someone the next night.

If you target me, we can have EPM protect me. If he doesn't protect me and I die, great. You'll have a flip for one of your scum reads and a strong hint that EPM is lying.

[Rubicon]

Only if the scum shoot into our unconfirmed null reads, right?

[Rubicon]

I'm down to lynch either of fitz/epm.

Not sure what to make of epm's support. I'm treating his most recent post as WIFOM.

Not sure what to make of your unvote either, though.

[Rubicon]

Wanna claim?

[Rubicon]

Noice

VOTE: epicpacman

[Rubicon]

evilpacman (3): idk, Kthxbye, Rubicon
fitz (3): ICEninja, Rhinox, N
Not voting (3): Equinox, evilpacman18, RedCoyote

5 to lynch

EPM is still not voting RC.

IDK is probably bussing but that's okay.

[Rubicon]

fine I'll do work, don't lynch me before I post

[working intensifies]

[Rubicon]

but evilpacman18 stalling the confession of his sins sure makes the paranoia feel delusional.

How do you mean?

(Agreed about the names on the wagons, but I think they're both scum so...)

[Rubicon]

I'm glad I called at least one scum correctly this game.

[Rubicon]

Who do you think the scum team without you is, idk?

[Rubicon]

I'm an honorary scum player for how bad my play has been. Sorry guys.

ICE, target me. Not even kidding, not even bluffing. I guarantee you will survive and you will win. If I'm bluffing scum you get me confirmed tomorrow. Please, please target me.

[Rubicon]

If EPM is telling the truth, it's going to come down to you I think. Good luck.

[Rubicon]

I'm just sheeping ICE to the end here.

Let me know who and when you want me to vote.

[Rubicon]

Since we've reached this point, I'll just say that the wording of your role implies you can target the same person more than once, as long as it's not in a row.

[Rubicon]

VOTE: idk

[Rubicon]

I am town.

[Rubicon]

I am town.

Lol, no you arent.

Basically, this game is only winnable is we lynch RC, idk, and Rub AND IF ice can hide behind who scum doesnt kill.

I hold low hope.

There is no reason to drag this out.

VOTE: idk

Yeah whatever.

[Rubicon]

Really?

[Rubicon]

In that case, I have no idea what happened here, but oh well. Congrats to scum.

I want to see the setup so I can tell if this was scum-sided. Probably not, I think we really just played that badly (except for one or two people).

[Rubicon]

Ugh.

[Rubicon]

This setup.

[Rubicon]

N are you fucking scum

[Rubicon]

[Rubicon]

Because this setup is fucked, would be my answer

[Rubicon]

For confirmed town, suggesting I hide behind RC isn't the smartest way for you to contribute. I don't realistically see Kthx as scum if RC is town. It just makes no sense.

No, it's idk, RC, and Rubicon. RC probably just bussed his buddy, and is making it look like he's town. I suppose it is possible that the team is RC, Rubicon, and Kthx, meaning we just lost.

I have to say twilights last a long time this game. They make me twitchy since there's a possibility the game is already over.

Game is obviously over, but 5000 conf-bias points to you for still thinking I'm scum, lol

[Rubicon]

GG everyone, and congrats scum - especially ICE.

My play was terrible. I'm gonna have to go over this game and figure out all the things I did wrong, for the future.

That said, I don't know when we were supposed to lynch the mod-confirmed investigative role, or one of his clears. If the tracker had survived, sure, but...