Mini 1606: Whodunit? Mafia - Game Over

[Riddleton]

Hello! Catching up.

[Riddleton]

Mod: Can you update me into the OP? Thanks!

[Riddleton]

Hello.

First off, I would like to make some comments about Karp. While it's probably likely he's just a VI, policy lynching him won't help us at all.
My main scumreads at the moment are Prolapsedand Antole roughly in order of confidence, with prolapsed being my strongest scumread. I townread Serra and 2birds.

Antole:
Very little content, content provided is minimal and gives the impression of activity. I'm leaning scum coasting through the game, though it's only a mior scumread. Unlike Serra, it's not a problem I have with his posting habits (ie. his one-liners) but rather the fact his posts are just inherintly useless. The times where he does provide analysis, it's ambigious at best and can swing either way.
I also don't like the case you've presented against 2birds. Having a lot of scumspects isn't necessarily scummy. In fact, it's natural for reads to change to some extent over the course of the game. I've seen scum use that fallacy to get a townie lynched loads of times -- more than I can count -- and I'm willing to bet you are scum too for that.

Prolapsed:
Why are you so happy about lynching a VI (magikarp)? I see no evidence that points to him being scum. This is his first game outside of the newbie queue so he's probably not used to the lack of guidance and support from everyone. Moreover, I don't like that you are only happy to give your reads out at L-1. I don't understand the NK speculation in #524 -- that goes for Acron too -- and how defensive you get after the resulting conversation about how 'scummy' or 'stupid' you are.
I heavily dislike the wording in #494. Switching votes so 'someone can hammer' isn't a legitimate reason and sounds incredibly scummy to me.
VOTE: Prolapsed

[Riddleton]

Magikarp is still a good lynch for today.

I disagree. Prolapsed would be a better lynch today.

[Riddleton]

Why in the world would scum kill the player with the most suspicion after the person we lynched?

Doesn't matter. Nk speculation won't help us.

I'm thinking most likely scum now may be anatole or acron. Will do some vca later and see if I can draw any conclusions.

[Riddleton]

Anka

, how would you feel about an anatole wagon? I'll have to recheck Chaos. I had him as null earlier with my reads.

[Riddleton]

Why in the world would scum kill the player with the most suspicion after the person we lynched?

Doesn't matter. Nk speculation won't help us.

I'm thinking most likely scum now may be anatole or acron. Will do some vca later and see if I can draw any conclusions.

Are you trying to say that we should ignore the NK for the sake of discussions?

Yes, I am. NK discussion amounts to nothing and is just a whole minefield of WiFOM. Only scum would know why the kill was done, and trying to speculate is just a waste of discussion. Even if we do know why they were killed, it still doesn't mean anything.

For townies, the whole concept of the day phase is to analyse people's posts, thoughts and emotions to try and find scum. Scum can be found through that method because we have enough informationi available to make the conclusion that they're producing valid scumtells, or not. We have no information about the NK other than the person who was killed. Why waste time trying to put together a jigsaw, which we might not even know could all 'fit together'? I'm trying to use an analogy here to help you understand my thought process.

[Riddleton]

I think there's probably a connection between active players being shot and the "lurkers are scum" logic being pushed by some players.

Active players are always first to go; lurkers simply aren't a threat to scum (also, allowing the game to stagnate is an extremely effective, if boring, scum tactic).

I've thought over it, and Acryon is still ultimately only looking bad for his night kill obsession. I agree that NK spec is very rarely useful, but Acryon's defence of it reads sincere to me.

I don't think it is entirely sincere. Especially with the notion he acknowledges my arguments but dismisses them with a vague "I don't 100% agree".

[Riddleton]

@Riddleton - What are your reads?

I believe I said them earlier; I currently scumread both Anatole and you (Acryon). I would be content with a wagon on either. I'm currently unsure which I scumread more, hence why I'm undecided whom to vote.

[Riddleton]

I think there's probably a connection between active players being shot and the "lurkers are scum" logic being pushed by some players.

Active players are always first to go; lurkers simply aren't a threat to scum (also, allowing the game to stagnate is an extremely effective, if boring, scum tactic).

That logic is correct.

I've ignored Karp for too long now, this is probably where my vote is staying for the rest of the day.

I still think Karp is just a VI. Can you show me evidence that he's not (if you think otherwise)? If you're just advocating a policy lynch, I'm afraid I don't agree with that.

[Riddleton]

@Riddleton - What are your reads?

I believe I said them earlier; I currently scumread both Anatole and you (Acryon). I would be content with a wagon on either. I'm currently unsure which I scumread more, hence why I'm undecided whom to vote.

That's my fault for not asking the right question. I am really looking for the cases you have on your reads.

I've made an Anatole case before, see here. I'll give you an acryon case shortly.

[Riddleton]

One thing I want to address:

His RVS abstinence still bugs me. Given two newbie games, Karp presumably understands what RVS is for; given this knowledge, the excuse "my joke was stolen" simply doesn't stack up.

It does, though. When you're in a a newbie game, you have SE players and an IC to 'guide' the newbies on how to play the game. They would have (correctly) told him that you shouldn't just

randomly

vote someone, but rather vote someone with arbitrary or silly reasons. The 'my joke was stolen' line could have been a misunderstanding of that.

[Riddleton]

Your case could be applied to any newbie player. Just take a look at any completed game in The Road to Rome. It's not as groundbreaking as you seem to think it is.

However, making this case isn't scummy on your behalf. I know from experience how easy it is to find scumtells in a newbie player, who's just not familiar with the site's meta.

[Riddleton]

Acyron coming up next.

[Riddleton]

Here's my analysis on Acryon.

Acryon

-#518: I don't like NK speculation and never do. I consider it scummy, bad logic or both. I'll talk more about that in a later point. My main issue here is that you assert people get town points, or scumpoints from someone getting NKed. Why?
-#576: But Naked votes can be helpful at times, such as to make wagons equal for VCA purposes; or to deliberately withhold information to prevent scum from parroting it.
-#578: Why do you attack Serra for him commenting on your poor NK speculation? NK spec does come from scum 90% of the time.
-Here's my main one. Lots of times, you say you're not interested in lynching Karp. In #652, you say 'definitely not interested in lynching the probable VI', and you also defend him in #263 and #330. But then in #808 you just vote for him. Do you think he isn't just a VI anymore and just looks like one or is trying to act like one, if you say 'I hate pursuing lynches that look like VIs'? If you think Karp is just scum (and not VI), can you explain how you take the opposite stance to Ward in #706, where you say Ward is probably just 'newb-town'? You even go as far to hardcore defend Majikarp in #654 saying he's not a 'massive liability' and we should just 'ignore him'. There's quite a sharp contrast in viewpoints on Karp's behaviour that makes me feel your vote is just opportunistic. I've summarised what I think about the case, that it's very generalised and can be applied to any VI-ish looking player. #819 is blatantly damage control and is trying to avoid blame going to you for Karp's mislynch.
-#768, which is some more NK speculation. I respond to that point, and he replies with very ambiguous and careful wording citing "I agree with your viewpoints but I don't 100% agree".

In a nutshell: NK analysis views are strange and adament and doesn't do a good job defending it. Unusual change of stance on Majikarp. The vote and change of reasoning beforehand doesn't make sense.

[Riddleton]

Okay so looking through the posts so far I do have to admit that 2b1s has a pretty convincing case against Karp. Karp himself even admits that he comes off scummy

Vote:Karp

Feel like this is a good place to put my vote at the moment

This is the most passive vote on the wagon.

-Where has Karp admitted he finds himself scummy, because I can not find such post in his ISO?
-What do you mean by 'put your vote at the moment'? Are you implying your vote would change or are you implying uncertainty in your stance?

[Riddleton]

Question for you all: what do you think about my analysis of Bird's case? If you disagree with it explain why

[Riddleton]

-#576: But Naked votes can be helpful at times, such as to make wagons equal for VCA purposes; or to deliberately withhold information to prevent scum from parroting it.
NK spec does come from scum 90% of the time.

This is not even close to being true.
.

Then explain why it isn't.

[Riddleton]

Or it's maybe me wanting to avoid a quick-hammer, because my vote was more for pressure to hear response to the wagon from karp than intent-to-lynch. Kind of like I said it was when I backed off. Why would I jump off to try and avoid liability? I was the second vote. If anything, I was in the perfect position to avoid liability if I were scum. Anatole and Chaos's votes would both look worse than mine looking back. You're stretching friend.

Why would Karp get quick hammered? It's not LyLo. Any quickhammers at this point would be very scummy.

[Riddleton]

Based on day interactions and what I would expect from certain scum players, you can definitely gain information. WIFOM sure, but people base reads and votes on certain levels of WIFOM all the time.

That's perhaps true, but it's a different kind of WiFOM. As I said earlier in my 'puzzle' analogy, you have more information to make educated guesses when talking about what's going on during the day round, than during the night round

[Riddleton]

Question for you all: what do you think about my analysis of Bird's case? If you disagree with it explain why

Did I miss some analysis? You commented that RVS stuff is probably just newbie-play. Is that what you're talking about? Because that's the same discussion that's been had all game, whether he is scum or VI.

No, I'm referring to my explanation that Bird's case can be applied to most newbies, town or scum. If you like, I can gather up some meta evidence for you to emphasise my point here.

Or it's maybe me wanting to avoid a quick-hammer, because my vote was more for pressure to hear response to the wagon from karp than intent-to-lynch. Kind of like I said it was when I backed off. Why would I jump off to try and avoid liability? I was the second vote. If anything, I was in the perfect position to avoid liability if I were scum. Anatole and Chaos's votes would both look worse than mine looking back. You're stretching friend.

Why would Karp get quick hammered? It's not LyLo. Any quickhammers at this point would be very scummy.

I disagree. There has been a lot of heat on karp, especially when considering all days of play. I could very easily see karp coming in with some bad defense, followed by someone commenting they didn't like it and hammering.

Ah, I see what you mean now. Apologies for the confusion.

[Riddleton]

VOTE: Acryon

This is as confident as I'll be. I feel this would be a better lynch today than Magikarp.

[Riddleton]

Magikarp,

Do you think 2birds is town for going after you, or not?

[Riddleton]

I'm here. Partially haven't posted because I'm busy and partially

because I have no idea who to lynch

. I'm fine with Karp being today's lynch, just because he really needs to be outta here but I would like to figure more out before we end the day.

This is town. I don't think scum would have the confidence to post a comment like that.

[Riddleton]

Chaos

, can you answer my questions in #826?

[Riddleton]

It doesn't sound like there's any consensus at all coming from the town. I think that's been an effect of the scum NKs that's really helped them. Both times we've just been thrown off by them. So it sounds like these aren't just random scum NKs, there must be at least one more experienced player in the scum team. I'm getting paranoid about Anatole based on that logic so I'll be reading him again. And I think Ward might be scum too.

I think it's safe to say that there's one scum amongst the experienced players, and one scum in the lurkers. Unsure whether or not third scum is also in one of these two groups.

TBH, after Karp lynch, I actually think that we have the information required to win this, regardless of his flip.

Can you quantify who you consider to be in each pool (experienced/lurkers)?

[Riddleton]

I would support popcorn claiming in LyLo. I agree that'd give us enough information to pinpoint the scum.

[Riddleton]

Magikarp,

Do you think 2birds is town for going after you, or not?

And for you it's supsious how you automatically defend me and saying I'm town I mean you could think that I'm actually town or you could be scum trying to get me to consider you town so also null

I don't think it's suspicious to think someone's town. It's normal in mafia to have townreads as well as scumreads, and I currently townread you. I've seen many newbie town act like you do, which is the basis of my read. I've also seen many newbies getting mislynched or policy lynched because of their actions, which hurts us in the long run. Do you think my defence of you is unnatural?

You can read me however you like. It's a free country. I welcome people to scumread me provided they explain why, as it opens up room for more discussion and analysis. Regarding your reads though, I would appreciate it if you make a firm decision as to whether birds and I are town or scum, rather than staying on null.

[Riddleton]

without even claiming/defending myself

You should do that now before it's too late.

[Riddleton]

Not sure what to think of the EPM wagon. I'm leaning towards thinking he's town.

I'm still good with Acryon and would prefer him, or Anatole, to be today's lynch.

[Riddleton]

VOTE: evilpacman

That naked vote is very bad.

[Riddleton]

I give townpoints to Chaos for trying to make a case, despite disagreeing with it. More scumpoints to Anatole for jumping on like that. I want to go and make some individual comments about EPM now:-

[Riddleton]

OK sorry I didn't see those posts. I'll read over them now and provide my thoughts alongside EPM.

[Riddleton]

EPM is confirmed cop unless someone CCs. He is not today's lynch.

[Riddleton]

Innocent until proven guilty. You are correct that there is not

guaranteed

to be a cop. However, there is also no guarantee that there is not a cop. Cop, is however, quite a common role for town to have and it would take a lot of gusto for scum to fakeclaim that. Indeed, scum also have the burden, when fakeclaiming cop, to provide 'results' from investigation. Why would scum risk claiming a role that is 99% of the time likely to be CCed when they can claim less common roles such as, say, Jailkeeper or Roleblocker? Scum won't gambit with a common role when they can play it safe by claiming another. Unless scum have reason to believe there probably

isn't

a cop (ie. no Godfather), then I consider it unlikely for scum to claim that. While the above statement could be true, I consider the most likely statement -- that he is cop -- to be true unless proven otherwise.

[Riddleton]

Not super flawed. Could be wrong, but is more likely than not to be true. Most scum fakleclaim VT or an uncommon role.

[Riddleton]

I agree with a massclaim. I would have preferred it tomorrow but now is OK too. We're getting stuck in a rut and need to move forward. I agree with that.

[Riddleton]

VT here.

[Riddleton]

I agree with Anka the mason claim makes a lot of sense. With that, and EPM's claim, today's lynch is either Magikarp, 2birds1stone, Chaos, Anatole, Anka or myself.

UNVOTE: Acryon

Will wait for your analysis, Anka.

[Riddleton]

Oops, sorry. Forgot about the inno on 2b1s. That's now 5 candidates: Magikarp, Chaos, Anatole, Anka and me.

[Riddleton]

Here are my current reads in light of the new information:-

Anatole

-Presents a case against 2b1s in #266 with the fallacy that having a lot of scumreads, or voting a lot of people throughout the course of the game, is scummy. I dislike that 'case' and think it's scummy to push such a thing. I see you as a reasonably experienced player -- you're not a newbie -- so such case strikes me as odd. It's not scummy to have lots of scumreads. Paranoid, maybe, but scum, no.
-#348 is an overreaction. It looks to me as 'fake anger' expressed at my predecessor to try and get him to read Anatole more favourably.
-Same with chaos, I also dislike how he wiggles out of suspicion regarding 2b1s's experienced/lurker pools scum list (#870). Although the claim is true it bugs me how he points it out like this. It's too much of a 'get out of jail free card' for me to ignore. Later claims in #897 he doesn't like pacman is "trying to scumhunt based on factors extraneous to the game like level of experience." later on which contradicts this earlier post of his.
Verdict: scum

Chaos

-I dislike how he dodges my criticism in #826. When he finally responds, 4 days later, but it irks me that he dodged my questions for so long. He has posted in between so I'm inclined to believe it may be deliberate. His response at #880 is a stretch -- to be generous -- and isn't very credible.
-Tries to wiggle out of suspicion in #879. Scumpoints for trying to 'prove' why you don't belong in a possible scumpool. Has lurked a lot the entire game despite his objections. Has prod dodged 3 times over the course of the game.
Verdict: Lean Scum

Anka

I'm fairly confident Anka is town. Asking the right questions and doing the right things.
Verdict: Town

Magikarp

I truly have no idea what to think anymore about this slot. I townread it early on, saying it was a VI/newb town. Not sure what to think now. Some of his latest posts (#922, #924) are strange. Either this slot is third scum, or 2b1s might be GF.
Verdict: unreadable

[Riddleton]

Acryon/ward masons do make sense. 2B1S. I consider it genuine because:-
a) It'd be completely stupid for scum to claim mason with his partner
b) Neither voted for each other or scumread each other. They have the synergy that could make sense if they were masons together.
b) I trust my reads of a anatole + chaos + someone else scumteam

[Riddleton]

I think it's pretty much certain Anatole and Chaos are two of the scum. Why do you think Anatole is town, 2birds?

The third scum is a mystery. A karp flip would let us know whether or not karp is scum, which is the main thing we're really uncertain about at this stage. If he is scum, I think we have the game in the bag with Anatole and Chaos being the partners. If Karp flips town, it's probably either 2birds is GF, someone is lying about their PR claim or Anka is scum. Roughly ordered in confidence. Honestly, at this stage I don't see a karp-town flip being all that likely. :/

VOTE: Magikarp

[Riddleton]

Okay for starters, I was not avoiding your post I was extremely busy and I happened to miss at first that you were directing something towards me (which you even have to admit can happen) so I answered the first question I saw deliberated towards me and then was reading back over and saw I missed yours. Again, I've been a little inactive due to the fact that RL has been extremely busy this week but I have been as active as I can. As for my answer in 880 how is this a stretch? And again I explained it was not me trying to wiggle out of the lurker pool it was me being frustrated at that moment.

Your answer is a stretch because Karp didn't say "I am scummy" but rather awknowledged 2bird's statement that he has been leading two town lynches. It's misleading wording, and I consider it you trying to push a lynch on your newbie-looking partner.

I consider you to be 'wiggling' out of the lurker pool. I don't really care for your excuses -- you

were

lurking at this stage and trying to avoid being categorised as such is a very scummy move in itself. The hardcore "I'm not scum because I'm not experienced/lurker" defences coming from you and anatole are very weak and look like desperate scum being cornered into trying to free themselves from suspicion.

[Riddleton]

Let's finish this. Chaos is certain scum now.

VOTE: Chaos

[Riddleton]

Here's the thing. I can't see anything other than a 3-man scumteam at this stage. I'm not the best at setup-stuff, but 2-man would be townsided against 13p. Regarding EPM's cop claim, I think that's valid for now. What results did you get tonight, EPM?

[Riddleton]

For reference,

I'll give pacman another day. It's a really convenient claim though - two dead innocents.

Eh, I don't give much credit to townslips myself. They can easily be faked by scum. It's null.

[Riddleton]

Anatole and Chaos are certain scum at this stage. Still not 100% whether the last scum is EPM or 2birds.

[Riddleton]

I think the best think we can do is look who else could be partnered with Chaos/Anatole. I'll be back later with some more stuff.

[Riddleton]

Here's the thing. I can't see anything other than a 3-man scumteam at this stage. I'm not the best at setup-stuff, but 2-man would be townsided against 13p.

Actually incorrect. 2 vs. 11 is scumsided in absence of power-roles. I'd be willing to call two masons balanced. I hate myself for saying this, because it actually complicates a theoretically won game slightly.

At the same time, I feel that this doesn't really matter; Chaos is scum in both hypothetical scumteams. We lynch Chaos, we lynch Ank tomorrow. If Ank flips town, that makes EPM scum in 3-way LyLo on final day.

It's townsided in that he town would need to ride through a fuckton of mislynches to lose.

[Riddleton]

Ugh, no-one else agrees about Ank, that makes things harder.

Why Anatole? Where'd the scumteam gain the insight behind their kills if not Ankamius?

Why not anatole? He's certainly experienced enough in mafia, and not a newbie. I don't belive in towntells as they can be fabricated easily. You should check out my case on him.

[Riddleton]

Ank is town. Not lynching him.

Epm and 2b1s: why am I being scumread?

[Riddleton]

Epm and 2b1s: why am I being scumread?

It's an important question. I'm not scum and certainly not with anatole and chaos whom I'm pushing for their deaths. Unless I have the nerve to, like, turbobus both of my partners to death or something silly, then I'm town.

Some of your recent posts 2birds have been ringing alarm bells. You imply earlier in #1020 that thereis a 2-man scumteam, paraphrasing by what you said regarding anka. You now suddenly agree with EpM that there's a 3-man scumteam and it's me/chaos/anatole. Why the sudden change of heart? I'm willong to speculate you're trying to agree with EpM in #1023 and draatically change your reads as to not get into any suspicion.
When I get the time later on I will post more as I have more to say. Needless to say though, it's pretty clear-cut that it's chaos/anatole/2birds.

[Riddleton]

Godfather you derp

[Riddleton]

Goon + RB + GF against 2 masons and a cop is balanced enough IMO. Why rule that out? GF is certainly a possibility and I don't want to consider there to not be one immediately with no basis.

It's the only logical option anyway for third scum. It's not Anka (conftown, and agrees with me regarding chaos/anatole). Not Ward (confirmed mason due to acryon), so that leaves you and epm. Out of the two, I believe EpM to be more town. I think some of the comments he makes, like the one about 'being wrong this game', are too honest to have come from scum. I find that unlikely. Some of your posts have been questionable at best, so I find you more likely as final scum. Like I said earlier, I will be available later tonight and will post a full case. But I do think this is the only plausible option.

Epm is town, anka is town, ward is town and I am town. That leaves you, chaos and anatole. Game solved.

[Riddleton]

Not scum. See last post. Please unvote nefore anatole quickhammers

VOTE: anatole

[Riddleton]

Even if you do think I am scum, please hear me out first. Will be more to come

[Riddleton]

ugh

[Riddleton]

You lose.

[Riddleton]

FWIW, I'm certain it's Anatole (100% sure he's scum). I guess it was Anatole and Anka?

[Riddleton]

Well, whatever. GG Scum.

[Riddleton]

Having cop+masons setup and giving mafia two ways to counter the cop doesn't make sense. Sorry.

vote: Riddleton

It does make sense. 2 goons + RB against masons and a cop is townsided. A GF balances it out. Besides, the RB doesn't know who the cop is to begin with, anyway.

[Riddleton]

I even told you I'm not the best at setup stuff so even if you disagree I don't understand why you'd quickhammer like that. Siilly scum. >_>

[Riddleton]

Why didn't you unvote EPM?

[Riddleton]

I think this is a lesson to you all: don't derpvote in LyLo. :/ I'm just really, angry. We were so close to winning this.

[Riddleton]

Well done town, and thanks for modding

Konowa

! I thought you did a fantastic job.

I'll probably give my commentry tomorrow.

[Riddleton]

No problem, Anka. My frustration wasn't directed at you within the scum QT, it was actually directed at the fact I was just had a lengthy post ready but got ninja'd to it. I think scum got screwed over by the fakeclaim. The masons confirmed each other and reduces the suspect pool down considerably to the point twhere town can PoE their way through. We didn't really have much of a chance from there, and our only real hope was to try and instill paranoia in thinking either Anka, EPM or 2b1s is scum. I was hoping in a last-ditch effort #1054 would WiFOM town to a loss, but it wasn't going to happen.