Mini 1606: Whodunit? Mafia - Game Over

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Whoever

Hi.

[Ankamius]

Ok, so I only read the current page so far. Can someone sum up why Acryon is being wagoned for me please?

[Ankamius]

Acryon's flipflopping on Prolapse and the really meh points in the post he linked are giving me an idea of why.

[Ankamius]

A + B = C

Ok, so I only read the current page so far. Can someone sum up why Acryon is being wagoned for me please?

As you saw for yourself, it's because he's scum.

100% C

[Ankamius]

So now we're getting a Prolapsed wagon going? Except for the case Acryon posted (which isn't convincing to me) and the very small portion of pacman's case in his wall on this page, I don't see the reason for it.

I'm pretty confused as to why pacman made such a large case against Acryon and then voted Prolapsed as well.

[Ankamius]

8:3 sounds too early to be compromising on people who we don't want to make it to LyLo.

Since we're stuck, I'm going to pose a question: Who's lynch will bring forth the most information? Acryon and Prolapse sound like decent choices from what I've read so far since they're recently controversial players, but I also still haven't read close to anything about this game.

[Ankamius]

If we're this early in the game and just resigning to remove people we don't want regardless of their alignment, then we have bigger problems.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Serrapaladin

You are scummy, please prove otherwise

This makes me not want serra to die today.

[Ankamius]

Actually, I'm not very big on a Prolapsed wagon either.

uggggggggggggggggh

[Ankamius]

Hold on

[Ankamius]

You, Ward, and Pacman are my main 3 scumreads.

[Ankamius]

Serra's null. I don't really think not caring while being wagoned is as alignment-indicative in this situation as it usually is. I can see both alignments having that same attitude pretty much regardless.

Idk what else there is on Serra but what I've seen is pretty meh.

[Ankamius]

Is it really too late to switch to someone else?

[Ankamius]

I wasn't impressed with his case on Prolapsed and just about everything after felt like he was trying to pad his posts with content without saying anything. Makes me think of scum trying to keep the apathy going but wanting towncred for being active.

[Ankamius]

I'll be around at deadline to hammer if I have to.

[Ankamius]

Why in the world would scum kill the player with the most suspicion after the person we lynched?

Not liking this.

[Ankamius]

I never read anything during nighttime.

Anyway, I have an idea of where to look for updated reads. I'll post about them whenever I'm done reading for them.

[Ankamius]

Okay, this death-of-both-wagons thing really did a lot for my reads.

2birds is effectively town
pacman looks better
chaos looks a LOT worse
ward still looks bad
riddleton slot looks kinda bad, but I'll give a pass because his predecessor completely dropped in a really awkward spot
acryon unchanged
anatole looks slightly worse
magikarp is still in the who the fuck knows category

Those aren't actually my reads. They're just roughly how they've changed since yesterday.

By the way, in case anyone feels like looking, I never gave reads on half the current alive players yesterday.

[Ankamius]

So basically, I'd be all for a Ward or chaoslord54 wagon.

[Ankamius]

You tunneled your focus on serra the entire day phase, only taking time otherwise to ask questions that didn't further anything. Your response to pacman in #610 looks quite a bit worse now that we know that Brain and Serra are both town.

[Ankamius]

I don't have a very good read on him at all. He's kind of just... here.

[Ankamius]

I think there's probably a connection between active players being shot and the "lurkers are scum" logic being pushed by some players.

Go on...

[Ankamius]

So basically, I'd be all for a Ward or chaoslord54 wagon.

Why me, oh manipulative energy harvester?

I don't remember why I was scumreading you yesterday, but looking at the wagons didn't change that read.

[Ankamius]

@Ankamius - Why does pacman look better after the lynch? Consider the below:

I'm pretty confused as to why pacman made such a large case against Acryon and then voted Prolapsed as well.

You, Ward, and Pacman are my main 3 scumreads.

Those read changes were primarily based on how everyone participated in the main wagons of the day. IIRC, Pacman was actively trying to keep lynch options open that weren't Brain+Serra, which rings town.

[Ankamius]

I think you misunderstood what I said. He was never down to lynch serra by the end of the day, and wanted the heads of two other people that weren't major wagons at that time of day.

[Ankamius]

You basically have it down.

I'm not a fan of nightkill speculation in most cases (including this one), but I'm basically dismissing the nightkill at just a WIFOM kill or PR-hunting kill.

[Ankamius]

Glad to see there's stuff to comment on since my last post.

[Ankamius]

Ward and evilpacman: Why the no-show? Neither of you have posted anything of substance today and I want to know what's going on.

[Ankamius]

@Mod: Prods on 2b1s, Ward, and Pacman please.

[Ankamius]

Although I do have to admit that EPM is starting to make me uneasy. His amount of lurking, his willingness to jump on the Karp wagon for just the sake of ""getting him out of here" which he says in 851 and then the fact that he attacks acryon in 873 but is proven quickly wrong by Acryon pointing out why he changed his stance on Karp shows that EPM has not been reading up which throws more suspicion on why he's fully for a Karp wagon. Also he mentions that he wants a karp lynch but wants to first figure out more for the next day but then makes it sound like we should end the day quickly in 875

How is any of this scummy?

[Ankamius]

chaoslord's last several posts are pinging pretty hard regardless.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Ward

[Ankamius]

I like all this evilpacman talk, that being said I don't have anything to contribute right now

. Prod dodge, next one gets me the boot right?

This is pinging alarm bells like nobody's business.

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Ward
VOTE: evilpacman18

No.

[Ankamius]

I like all this evilpacman talk, that being said I don't have anything to contribute right now

. Prod dodge, next one gets me the boot right?

This is pinging alarm bells like nobody's business.

Hmm, that's a good point. What would you think about maybe an EPM/Ward scum?

Basically, do you think it's possible that Ward is trying to soft claim/ come off as town by claiming that he thinks EPM can be scummy but his lack of committing to the wagon is him not wanting to vote his scumbuddy?

I think it's scummy regardless of pacman's alignment.

[Ankamius]

see I don't even know why it matters what my reads are because if we lynch anyone besides Karp today there's the possibility of ending up in 4:3 lylo tomorrow with Karp alive which would literally fucking suck,

so I'm saying we do what we have to do, IE kill Karp, and then we can talk about reads tomorrow.

This is not reckless or anti-town play, it makes total sense, because we don't have any claims out there (except Karp, who didn't claim PR thank god), which is great, but it also means that we don't have any obvtown and from the way the game is going (especially now that there's an out of nowhere wagon forming on me),

it sounds like WE'RE ALL PRETTY UNCERTAIN about anything. By just getting it over with and lynching Karp, we eliminate our biggest liability and probably get one more NK flip that will end up going a long way towards clearing up our universally unconvincing reads.

So frankly, there's no reason for me to be reading closely right now, and there's no reason for me to provide a list of scum reads besides Karp.

It doesn't matter because Karp is objectively our best lynch today, and so

if I posited a scum team it would just be a distraction

, and also

because I, and it sounds like the rest of you too, are really mostly unsure about this game at all.

There's no general town consensus anywhere

, and that's dangerous because it leads to stupid shit like me having more votes than Karp right now and Ankamanius wasting a vote on Ward, etc.

Everything bolded reeks.

PEdit: okay, I'll rethink

UNVOTE: evilpacman18

[Ankamius]

This could be the last day a massclaim will be viable. If we're doing it, we'll pretty much have to do it today.

[Ankamius]

<- VT

[Ankamius]

Just waiting on Chaos since Karp already claimed VT earlier. In the mean-time, what do you think of the claims thusfar Ankamius?

I'll look into the masons, but I can see pacman being legit.

[Ankamius]

Okay, I can buy the masons being legit too.

[Ankamius]

Okay.

I think at this point, both are 100% confirmed. I'm not experienced in game balance, but it sounds like Cop+Mason+Mason against 3 Goons would be alright balance-wise.

With this in mind, we are effectively down to a 5-man lynch pool, with a 60% chance of lynching correctly. I'd like to see what the vote counts say with all these blanks filled in. I'll do it sometime today.

[Ankamius]

Spoiler:

Vote Count 1.1

not_mafia

(1) :

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

(1) :

not_mafia

Phijkchu_Magikarp (1) :

ward

apathy12

(1) :

2birds1stone

Anatole Kuragin (1) : BlackPawn14(chaoslord54)

prolapsed brain

(1) : Anatole Kuragin

Not Voting (7) : Phijkchu_Magikarp,

apathy12

,

acryon

,

evilpacman18

, busbek(Ankamius),

prolapsed brain

, TobyLoby(Riddleton)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST.

Vote Count 1.2

Phijkchu_Magikarp (5) :

ward

,

prolapsed brain

,

2birds1stone

,

not_mafia

,

acryon

prolapsed brain

(3) : Anatole Kuragin, TobyLoby(Riddleton), Phijkchu_Magikarp

not_mafia

(2) :

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

, busbek(Ankamius)
Anatole Kuragin (1) : BlackPawn14(chaoslord54)
busbek(Ankamius) (1) :

apathy12

Not Voting (1) :

evilpacman18

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST.

Vote Count 1.3

Phijkchu_Magikarp (4) :

ward

,

prolapsed brain

,

2birds1stone

,

apathy12

prolapsed brain

(3) : Anatole Kuragin, TobyLoby(Riddleton), Phijkchu_Magikarp

not_mafia

(2) :

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

, busbek(Ankamius)
Anatole Kuragin (1) : BlackPawn14(chaoslord54)

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

(1) :

not_mafia

Not Voting (2) :

evilpacman18

,

acryon

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST.

Vote Count 1.4

Phijkchu_Magikarp (3) :

prolapsed brain

,

2birds1stone

,

apathy12

prolapsed brain

(2) : Anatole Kuragin, Phijkchu_Magikarp

not_mafia

(2) :

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

, busbek(Ankamius)

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

(2) :

not_mafia

,

evilpacman18

Anatole Kuragin (1) : BlackPawn14(chaoslord54)

Not Voting (3) :

acryon

, TobyLoby(Riddleton),

ward

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST.

Mod Notes:

acryon

is V/LA until September 2nd.
Also, please try not to include votes hidden within spoilers.

Vote Count 1.5

Phijkchu_Magikarp (2) :

2birds1stone

,

apathy12

not_mafia

(2) :

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

, busbek(Ankamius)

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

(2) :

not_mafia

,

evilpacman18

apathy12

(2) : Anatole Kuragin, Phijkchu_Magikarp

ward

(2) : TobyLoby(Riddleton),

prolapsed brain

Anatole Kuragin (1) : BlackPawn14(chaoslord54)
TobyLoby(Riddleton) (1) :

ward

Not Voting (1) :

acryon

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST.

Mod Notes:

acryon

is V/LA until September 2nd.
BlackPawn14(chaoslord54) was prodded at 9:15am.

Vote Count 1.6

Phijkchu_Magikarp (2) :

2birds1stone

,

apathy12

not_mafia

(2) :

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

, busbek(Ankamius)

ward

(2) : TobyLoby(Riddleton),

prolapsed brain

2bird1stone (2) : Anatole Kuragin,

evilpacman18

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

(1) :

not_mafia

apathy12

(1) : Phijkchu_Magikarp
Anatole Kuragin (1) : BlackPawn14(chaoslord54)
TobyLoby(Riddleton) (1) :

ward

Not Voting (1) :

acryon

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST

Mod Notes: Prodded busbek(Ankamius) at 10:05 AM

Vote Count 1.7

2bird1stone (4) : Anatole Kuragin,

acryon

,

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

, chaoslord54

not_mafia

(2) : Salamence20(Ankamius),

apathy12

prolapsed brain

(2) :

evilpacman18

,

2birds1stone

Phijkchu_Magikarp (1) :

prolapsed brain

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

(1) :

not_mafia

apathy12

(1) : Phijkchu_Magikarp
Salamence20(Ankamius) (1) : TobyLoby(Riddleton)

Not Voting (1) :

ward

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST

Vote Count 1.8

2bird1stone (2) :

acryon

,

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

not_mafia

(2) : Salamence20(Ankamius),

apathy12

prolapsed brain

(2) :

evilpacman18

,

2birds1stone

apathy12

(2) : Phijkchu_Magikarp, chaoslord54
Phijkchu_Magikarp (1) :

prolapsed brain

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

(1) :

not_mafia

ward

(1) : EspressoDan(Riddleton)
EspressoDan(Riddleton) (1) : Anatole Kuragin

Not Voting (1) :

ward

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST

Vote Count 1.9

apathy12

(4) : Phijkchu_Magikarp, chaoslord54,

acryon

, Anatole Kuragin

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

(4) :

not_mafia

, EspressoDan(Riddleton),

prolapsed brain

,

apathy12

2bird1stone (2) :

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

,

ward

prolapsed brain

(2) :

evilpacman18

,

2birds1stone

not_mafia

(1) : Salamence20(Ankamius)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST

Mod Notes:

LynxKuroneko(serrapaladin)

has failed to post within the 24 hours of receiving his prod, per rule 11 he is being replaced. Beginning search for a replacement.

Vote Count 1.10

apathy12

(4) : Phijkchu_Magikarp, chaoslord54,

acryon

, Anatole Kuragin

serrapaladin

(3) :

not_mafia

, EspressoDan(Riddleton),

prolapsed brain

prolapsed brain

(3) :

evilpacman18

,

2birds1stone

,

serrapaladin

2bird1stone (1) :

ward

not_mafia

(1) : Salamence20(Ankamius)

Not Voting (1) :

apathy12

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST

Mod Notes: Votes in posts #425 and #442 will not be counted as they are not for an active player in this game.

Vote Count 1.11

apathy12

(7) : Phijkchu_Magikarp, chaoslord54,

acryon

, Anatole Kuragin, EspressoDan(Riddleton),

prolapsed brain

,

2birds1stone

prolapsed brain

(4) :

evilpacman18

,

serrapaladin

,

apathy12

,

not_mafia

2bird1stone (1) :

ward

not_mafia

(1) : Salamence20(Ankamius)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline hits at September 10th, 9am EST

---

apathy12

- Vanilla Townie - lynched Day 1.

And with that, Night 1 begins. All actions to be submitted by (expired on 2014-09-12 10:00:00)

---

As an aside, I will insert a countdown into this post and votecounts on the following Days. As was labeled in every votecount, deadline for D1 was 9am EST.

Vote Count 2.1

acryon

(1) :

serrapaladin

Phijkchu_Magikarp (1) :

2birds1stone

Not Voting (9) : Phijkchu_Magikarp,

acryon

chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin,

evilpacman18

, Salamence20(Ankamius),

prolapsed brain

,

ward

, EspressoDan(Riddleton)

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-09-26 11:00:00)

Vote Count 2.2

acryon

(3) :

serrapaladin

,

evilpacman18

,

prolapsed brain

serrapaladin

(2) : chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin
Phijkchu_Magikarp (1) :

2birds1stone

Not Voting (5) : Phijkchu_Magikarp,

acryon

, Salamence20(Ankamius),

ward

, EspressoDan(Riddleton)

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-09-26 11:00:00)

Mod Notes: Prodding Salamence20(Ankamius)

Vote Count 2.3

acryon

(3) :

serrapaladin

,

evilpacman18

,

prolapsed brain

serrapaladin

(2) : chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin

prolapsed brain

(1) :

2birds1stone

Not Voting (5) : Phijkchu_Magikarp,

acryon

, Salamence20(Ankamius),

ward

, EspressoDan(Riddleton)

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-09-26 11:00:00)

Mod Notes: Still searching for a replacement for Salamence20(Ankamius)

Vote Count 2.4

prolapsed brain

(3) :

2birds1stone

,

evilpacman18

, Phijkchu_Magikarp

acryon

(2) :

serrapaladin

,

prolapsed brain

serrapaladin

(2) : chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin

Not Voting (4) :

acryon

, Ankamius,

ward

, EspressoDan(Riddleton)

Mod Notes : EspressoDan(Riddleton) has failed to pick up his prod. Beginning a search for a replacement.

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-09-26 11:00:00)

Vote Count 2.5

prolapsed brain

(3) :

evilpacman18

, Phijkchu_Magikarp,

2birds1stone

serrapaladin

(2) : chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin

acryon

(1) :

prolapsed brain

Anatole Kuragin (1) :

serrapaladin

Not Voting (4) :

acryon

, Ankamius,

ward

, EspressoDan(Riddleton)

Mod Notes : Still searching for a EspressoDan(Riddleton) replacement. Tell a friend to tell a friend.

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-09-26 11:00:00)

Vote Count 2.6

serrapaladin

(4) : chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin,

acryon

,

ward

prolapsed brain

(4) :

evilpacman18

, Phijkchu_Magikarp,

2birds1stone

, Riddleton
Phijkchu_Magikarp (2) :

prolapsed brain

,

serrapaladin

Not Voting (1) : Ankamius

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-09-26 11:00:00)

Vote Count 2.7

prolapsed brain

(5) :

evilpacman18

, Phijkchu_Magikarp,

2birds1stone

, Riddleton,

acryon

serrapaladin

(3) : chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin,

ward

Phijkchu_Magikarp (2) :

prolapsed brain

,

serrapaladin

Not Voting (1) : Ankamius

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-09-26 11:00:00)

Vote Count 2.8

prolapsed brain

(6) :

evilpacman18

, Phijkchu_Magikarp,

2birds1stone

, Riddleton,

acryon

,

serrapaladin

serrapaladin

(3) : chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin,

ward

Phijkchu_Magikarp (1) :

prolapsed brain

Not Voting (1) : Ankamius

---

prolapsed brain

- Vanilla Townie - lynched Day 2.

And with that, Night 2 begins. All actions to be submitted by (expired on 2014-09-28 10:00:00)

Votcount 3.1

Phijkchu_Magikarp (1) :

2birds1stone

Not Voting (8) : Phijkchu_Magikarp,

acryon

, chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin,

evilpacman18

, Ankamius,

ward

, Riddleton

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-10-12 13:00:00)

Votcount 3.2

Phijkchu_Magikarp (3) :

2birds1stone

, Anatole Kuragin, chaoslord54

Not Voting (6) : Phijkchu_Magikarp,

acryon

,

evilpacman18

, Ankamius,

ward

, Riddleton

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-10-12 13:00:00)

Votcount 3.3

Phijkchu_Magikarp (4) :

2birds1stone

, Anatole Kuragin, chaoslord54,

evilpacman18

acryon

(1) : Riddleton

Not Voting (4) : Phijkchu_Magikarp,

acryon

, Ankamius,

ward

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-10-12 13:00:00)

Votcount 3.4

Phijkchu_Magikarp (3) :

2birds1stone

, Anatole Kuragin,

evilpacman18

evilpacman18

(2) : Phijkchu_Magikarp, chaoslord54

acryon

(1) : Riddleton

Not Voting (3) :

acryon

, Ankamius,

ward

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-10-12 13:00:00)

Votcount 3.5

evilpacman18

(2) : chaoslord54, Anatole Kuragin
Phijkchu_Magikarp (2) :

2birds1stone

,

evilpacman18

acryon

(1) : Riddleton

Not Voting (4) :

acryon

, Ankamius,

ward

, Phijkchu_Magikarp

Deadline hits in (expired on 2014-10-12 13:00:00)

Posting this here for now. Thoughts coming shortly.

I did a find->replace thing, which is why everyone's name is a bit off in capitalization.

[Ankamius]

First, Phijkachu is pretty much obvious scum based on this. Each vote count in Day 1 literally only had (assumed) conftown on it, and while it was pushed pretty early on day 3 by unconfirmed (scum-driven), it pretty quickly went back to only being town votees once pacman became a counterwagon. This is pretty strong evidence of Phijkachu scum. I can def see Anatole and chaos trying to bus their partner that is most likely going to die that day phase quickly, then hopping off when it becomes less likely.

The apathy wagon doesn't really mean anything. The only unconfirmed not on the first five votes of that wagon was my predecessor, so it's pretty clear that it was heavily scum-driven regardless of who the scumteam is.

serrapaladin wagon sprung up alongside the town-driven acryon wagon. More likely than not both of the wagonees are scum (Anatole + chaos).

Riddleton slot is kinda meh. It was the last unconfirmed vote on the apathy wagon and voted acryon a lot, but it's not really all that scummy by itself.

[Ankamius]

I fully approve of both wagons, so consider me ready to vote chaos at any time.

VOTE: Phijkchu_Magikarp

[Ankamius]

Hammering before pacman gives a result is admitting guilt.

[Ankamius]

2b1s is significantly less town than yesterday, by the way.

[Ankamius]

Okay, that simplifies a lot.

pacman: Who do you think the scumteam is?
Ward: Who do you think the scumteam is?
2b1s: Who do you think the scumteam is?

It's important we get all this out in the open now before rushing to night. All three of your voices matter a lot right now.

[Ankamius]

Can we not give him an opportunity to self-hammer please?

[Ankamius]

I don't like to take chances on things like that.

[Ankamius]

Eh, I'd rather get rid of Anatole first. I have a particular reason for this that I don't want to reveal.

Even with all the evidence on Anatole regardless, the fact remains that his play has significantly degraded since the massclaim happened.

[Ankamius]

Ank I don't get what kind of hidden reason you could have

I actually thought there was a way that mafia could trip themselves up and confirm themselves tomorrow, but I re-thought about it and I realized that it would require you to be scum as well, so scratch that.

If there's nothing else you two want to discuss, I can vote Riddleton whenever.

[Ankamius]

Having cop+masons setup and giving mafia two ways to counter the cop doesn't make sense. Sorry.

vote: Riddleton

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Anatole Kuragin

I still stand by my stance that this game is scum-sided without both the Cop and Masons, so I can't see evilpacman being scum here. Anatole would have posted it by now if he had a PR anyway.

[Ankamius]

BTW I bet that Anatole couldn't block and kill at the same time.

[Ankamius]

Dead/Mafia QTs?

[Ankamius]

Riddleton, I didn't let you post what you wanted to post because your logic of pushing Cop+Masons vs Goon+GF+Roleblocker and trying hard to push 2b1s as scum looked a lot more like desperate scum than town.

I still maintain the stance that giving town two power roles and mafia two counters to one of them is incredibly bizarre.