Mini 1632 - Zar's Holiday Bash - Mardi Gras Showdown - Over!

[Thor665]

Well, that makes that easier. Thor/SB/aero 2015. Maybe throw ac in there for having killed Madonna.

What's the case on me, SB, and Aero?

Welp I played all my cards on the table I lied about having only 1 hider shot I had 2 shots. I just wanted scum to target me last night thinking if i Could survive a lynch. Elleheathen is unfortunately also town. Originally I was going to go for Exact science but changed my mind halfway through the day and crumbed elle.

I wish I used my shot on elle if I knew she would be like this I would of used it on her not droogs slot. This is what I would hide behind given the chance. Well can't have to many regrets or they will weigh me down.

Can you show me the crumb for when you were intending to target Exact Science?

[Thor665]

@Aero - Maybe. I will admit to multi-shot Hider + Masons is a bit wonky as a combo.
I'd want a massclaim prior to lynching over that though.

Do you have any scumreads not connected to that theory?

@Garmr - Thank you.

[Thor665]

My read on reinoe is chronicled throughout the thread, as is my dislike of the exakt slot. The rest of my reads come with a healthy dose of PoE.

Cool - can you give me a link or a page where I could find you basically stating the cases?
And if they don't exist - could you state them now?

[Thor665]

Heck, maybe even narrow it down to 'early Day 2' or something?

[Thor665]

Droog, in all of those, he's defending Garmr.

There is not one post where silver calls Garmr scum. Not one.

I loosely agree with this.

No. In the post

you just quoted

you're saying his reads suck. That's just you saying it, you're not saying anyone else said it. You're using it as a defense for him. However, then you just sheep him anyway. What's the town motivation for following the logic of someone they believe to be a bad player?

I disagree with this - droog appears to be questioning the value of the case, he, himself, does not commit to a stance of 'his reads suck' or 'his reads don't suck'.
In an eye squinting way he's saying what you're saying here, but I'm not really bought into it.

@Aero
@droog

What's your read on Serra?

[Thor665]

And I see no great case on garmr

I think as best it currently exists is 'balance between X Masons + X Shot Hider.
His crumbing mildly sells me on him being legit though - really it starts to depend on a mass claim however, so I think it's a non-starter conversation till that stage.

I have no opinion on Serra
Have not looked at that slot at all
I might now

I would appreciate it - it is Day 3.

[Thor665]

Also want Thor to explain what he's thinking right now since there's a lot of questions and comments that don't really mean much. Who do you suspect?

I'm thinking a number of things and have expressed some thoughts as well - certainly more than you have, and, like you, I just replaced in - so I'm not sure why you feel my output is lacking.
Can you clarify?

Aww man, you're gonna try to push for my mislynch, aren't you, Thor?

Yeah, I talked about it in the scum QT with my buddies and we were all like - 'Thor, serra is going to push you but do it in a really sloppy way and refuse to explain his reads - you can exploit that because even when you are reasonable about it and ask him to just give you a general area to search for info on this case he'll duck the question and keep calling you scum so he'll be easy to mislynch'.

It was a brilliant plan, I didn't think it would work.
Foolish me.

[Thor665]

You haven't said anything about the past days, and yet one of the first thing you do is ask me to explain my reads, obviously based on stuff that happened before today.

Yes, I did - please point to anyone else who made a sweeping 'this is the scumteam' claim and voted and I'll agree that I'm singling you out unduly.
I also did ask Garmr about something that happened int he past (and probably some other people too) Garmr just answered me and we moved on. you dodged. Hint: this might be why I'm treating you differently.

Finding whether I've posted cases or not would be as easy as searching in my ISO.

Agreed.
i don't want to search your whole iso though - that's why I asked you to even be so kind as to provide early on Day 2' or something, to ease my search. Is this an unreasonable request?
Why?

I never got a sufficient explanation for reinoe's choice of play D1, and I'm pretty sure nothing you can say will change that.

What did he do Day 1 that you found in need of an explanation?

Lucky for you, I have very little confidence this town will do anything but chase its own tail, and all it seems to take to lynch someone is be loud about it.

I will agree Aeronaut looks far more likely to be lynched today than me, and probably you too if I can swing that - that is all the *more* reason for you to bother presenting a case though.
Presuming you have one and aren't just "being loud"
I feel this is a hypocritical stance from you - you're complaining about something while, functionally, doing it - how do you think I am wrong in that perception?

It's weirder for you because everybody else had a consistent opinion on the claim, whereas you seemed to waffle on it a lot within your post which looks really strange.

I'm guessing the "claim" is Garmr - I feel I've been relatively clear on my thoughts as I got them. That you noticed my reaction shift was probably based off the rather plain evidence that I was learning things and then reacting to them. As far as I can tell you're pointing out that I'm analyzing and assessing information, and allowing my views to adjust - and then calling that "strange" which...well, it seems like the opposite of strange to me.
Why is that strange?

Also, what kind of interaction were you expecting? Regardless of the alignment of the person he pushed he was going to go into the day defending them as hard as he could, so how would the interactions help you?

I do not follow this - are you mistaking me for Aeronaut? Clarify this question and then maybe I can answer it.
I don't think I ever questioned any "interactions" from Garmr. i did offer some views on what those interactions looked like, but I didn't call them scummy nor did I attack him over them. So?

The only read I can see from you is "Garmr is probably legit barring massclaim revealing more roles". Your posts feel very careful in that sense, and I'd like some definite stances out of you soon - especially since you don't even have a vote or anything like that.

You are correct that I seem to be lacking definite stances at this stage. Just as you are "reading" to develop opinions I am interacting to develop mine. That said - I have expressed no desire to lynch Garmr at this stage, I have avoided the Aero wagon, and I am pretty clearly pushing on Serra (as he has quite clearly noted) so it's already clear at least what about three of my reads are.
As more people interact with me and the interactions become deeper my reads will become broader and clearer.

Again - what is the issue here? I've been in the game for only a handful of pages and have already expressed multiple reads and commented on multiple things, which, again, is more than I can say for you. I understand what you are doing (or wish to be seen as doing) so why is it so confusing to you that I am also doing (or wishing to be seen as doing) the same basic thing - which is "getting my toes wet"?

I am serious here - clarify this some more, I am not fond of your current thought process.
Also - your current opinion of Serra would also be nice to hear in light of his reaction to me.

[Thor665]

Thor, Serra, Aero? Huh.

[Thor665]

The first two quotes you took from my post were both directed at aeronaut. I thought it was clear considering I quoted one of his posts, but apparently not?

Clearly not

And all of those reads you talk about are things that I kind of had to assume until now.

Do you actually need that level of hand holding? Here's a crazy concept - if you see something and are unsure what I mean or think - ask me what I meant or think. It's a wild idea, and pretty radical, but it works for me in most instances to divine the deep mysteries of the game.

Why do you disagree with the aeronaut wagon?

I don't think it currently exists as a case - it exists as an easy lynch people agree with. I was intentionally sitting back to see what happened with it.

[Thor665]

Again - what is the issue here? I've been in the game for only a handful of pages and have already expressed multiple reads and commented on multiple things, which, again, is more than I can say for you. I understand what you are doing (or wish to be seen as doing) so why is it so confusing to you that I am also doing (or wishing to be seen as doing) the same basic thing - which is "getting my toes wet"?

I am serious here - clarify this some more, I am not fond of your current thought process.

I also have to admit - I don't really feel that this question was answered.
Feel free to quote the line(s) that you feel contained the answer if I missed it.

[Thor665]

Also. Hi Thor.

Hullo.

What's the scumminess on AC - I don't have any feel for that slot.

I don't have an issue with the style itself, I have an issue with the fact I'm not getting a strong impression from your posts and aside from the very recent serra thing your questions didn't seem to be going anywhere either.

Why did you think that multiple questions about the gamestate and people's reads within a short period of time were ;going nowhere'?

What do you think of aero as a player instead of just a lynch candidate then?

I know I've played with him before, he didn't leave a strong impression. My vague recollection is 'lynchbait' and I'm reacting to him as such until I see anything that changes my views or recall.

What are your views on his play in this game and/or past game experience you have with him - and how does it affect your current scumread of the slot?

[Thor665]

Also. Hi Thor.

Hullo.

What's the scumminess on AC - I don't have any feel for that slot.

Just wanted to see a reaction.

I didn't like Serra's hammer, true - but I still like Serra for talking me down from the Garmr lynch yesterday.

I didn't like ac's vote yesterday, either. His 'Okay' struck me as 'thanks for the excuse' but not enough to outweight my townfeels on him.

Okay, so you town read both of them and scumread me, and wanted to test my reaction to you saying the opposite.
I'm not sure what reaction you were supposed to get really.

Why do you scumread my slot?
Also, could you link me to the talk down?

[Thor665]

My main problem with this game was the combination of phenomenally bad play by Garmr and geraint to leave us utterly Smurfed.

I wanted to maybe talk to TDA today, but scum shot him.

I'd love to hang acfan so badly but I don't have time.

Whassup TSO? You keep posting this odd sort of desperation angst while saying nothing - it is not helpful to me beyond conveying that you think things are utterly insane and borked up...which seems an odd place to be when, functionally, we have a claimed cop with two clears. Isn't that "good" for town? Why are you acting like it's the Apocalypse in here?

@Elle - could you state your current vague reads as currently stands, I am now quite lost on which you did or didn't mean and since your 'just testing reaction' thing apparently didn't register properly with me I'm not able to sort them out on going back and looking. Unless your actual current stance is 'helllz if I know!' then I have no idea what you're saying.

I looked over that 'talk down' it...doesn't look like much of a talkdown to me. It looks like he was being guarded and you simply stopped being frantic. No?

[Thor665]

[Thor665]

He's a hider - it's Garmr - he's identified Droog and Elle as clear.

Why are you not reading at all?

[Thor665]

Aren't you voting right now?

[Thor665]

You are voting - clarification requested.

[Thor665]

Hard to tell what anyone's doing because the level of care in this game is... eugh.

It's like a competition of people grumping about this game - I am not feeling a level of dreck equivalent to the complaints.

No one has strongly objected to the massclaim, so let's just move the game along.

I'm VT, go Thor.

I am claiming VT.

I am going to hold on to the massclaim for a little while whilst I figure out who I wish to popcorn to - as I don't have a clear idea of my second top scumspect to a level I wish to force the claim yet at this stage.

[Thor665]

That gift would horrify me.

[Thor665]

Vote: Serra

Out of boredom.

Popcorn: TSO

- Eh...honestly, probably anything he answers won't much please me, and he's a lump - he's a good next claim regardless.

[Thor665]

This could genuinely be my worst towngame of all time.

[Thor665]

And you popcorn to....?

[Thor665]

Because we already had two clears and a mason yet to be claimed - even if the mason were one of the clears the only way it becomes an issue is if Garmr is scum, and the only way to discern that is if we massclaim, and a massclaim could clarify his scumminess. So either I was going to get 3-4 clears or a likely scum lynch within 2.

I don't see what you alignment has to do with anything in that equation - clarify?

[Thor665]

Unless you're now claiming it was a ploy on your part?
In which case...well, that doesn't change my current reads at all - but I imagine it will make lynching you easier.

[Thor665]

I've seen that handled a few different ways, myself.

@Mod - how do you handle the theory interaction of a GF and Hider? Would the Hider die or live?

[Thor665]

I roughly agree with your commentary - but will admit to uncertainty about the setup at this stage. Masons + Hider is pretty potent as it potentially can lead to 5 clears in a 13 player setup on Day 3. Scum has to have some sort of Hider or Mason counter - or the Hider is lying. Or, I dunno, something. The setup can't be what it appears to be though. We're missing something.

[Thor665]

Basically, the current setup is like giving town 2 cops. It's wonky.

[Thor665]

And a massclaim is definitely the optimal play in most potential setups, but if I'm scum, surely I'd only suggest a massclaim if I'd primed my potential buddies in a way that would benefit us?

[Thor665]

1. Yes - no one has ever heard of bussing - that said, spotting who scum was trying to seriously lynch or not is a good way to spot town. Have you never heard of townhunting?
2. Is he? Example(s)?
3. It wasn't to me - the slot looked utterly useless and openly admitted to not reading *and* not caring about the game because, apparently, some players 'ruined' the game somehow - despite it looking like a solid town advantage right now. I read that as a pretty clear scum minded commentary.

That post from you increases my desire to have you be the lynch though.

[Thor665]

[Thor665]

Cool - claim, popcorn, and vote him?

[Thor665]

@Serra - I'm fascinated about your meta on me, especially if it includes a Newbie - because if I was scum in that Newbie I probably gave my patented newbie scum advice of 'don't lie and don't do things you wouldn't do as town' and now you're saying that you've figured me out enough to understand how I'd react to a massclaim from a scumread as town and as scum?

Nope - not buying it.

Also, you scumslipped.
I wonder if anyone else will notice it? (Hint - near the bottom of Page 61).

[Thor665]

And no Thor, the point about your reaction to me claiming is independent of meta.

The meta mention was just so people see how hard it is to lynch you as scum, in the naive hope they might apply that as a baseline.

So you brought up all these unclear references of meta awareness just to say 'Thor is hard to lynch...in a Newbie'?
Not buying it really.

The slip can be found in a post where he's discussing number of scum.
C'mon guys, you're making me feel like I'm crazy.

[Thor665]

Sb did the same thing

No, I'm not talking clearing himself - I'm talking numbers.
That said, I guess if he's auto counting SB as scum with me it would make sense what he did...but that's kind of a weird thing to be doing regardless.

[Thor665]

Oh, posh off, he didn't mention SB and then was painting a two scum team - it was valid call at the time, and I specifically invited review of it...albeit via searching, but still.

[Thor665]

Thor, as garmr has so astutely pointed out, I had aero and AC as my strongest town reads for large parts of the game, while my scumreads were your slot, sb's and droog's slot, hence me trying to sort AC and aero. Plus, the suggestion that we might have 2 scum with this town power, AND that I would slip that fact, is ridiculous.

Well, my actual assertion was going to be that you were forgetting to count yourself.
That said, I clarified my point and still find your commentary iffy regardless for reasons stated.

I don't need you to buy it, I just feel that if people read this newbie and your monologue about being hard to lynch in the scum thread, they might see your play in a different light. The other meta reference I made was Newbie 1543, I think, where the way I initially pushed reads was very similar to here, so the fact that you're scumreading me for pushing you in a "sloppy" way reflects either the fact that you haven't put much thought into my play, or that you're scum pushing for a mislynch. Subtly discrediting my meta on you because it's from newbies is lame given how you've been leading droog today.

1. I am not "subtly" discrediting your meta - I am flat out calling it bad in plain language and calling you scummy for how you're doing it.
2. I am not calling your case sloppy - I am calling you scummy for dodging and ducking the responsibility of codifying your case - because that's a scum move.
3. Yes, knowing that I, as scum, consider myself hard to lynch totally changes the way that people can see my play today...how, specifically?

I roughly agree with your commentary - but will admit to uncertainty about the setup at this stage. Masons + Hider is pretty potent as it potentially can lead to 5 clears in a 13 player setup on Day 3. Scum has to have some sort of Hider or Mason counter - or the Hider is lying. Or, I dunno, something. The setup can't be what it appears to be though. We're missing something.

Yup, you have a rolecop. As town, I would think you'd think of potential options, rather than feigning confusion. Classic scum pretending to be confused town. Really, though, you should blame your teammates for not killing Garmr when they had the chance, rather than masons + hider being imbalanced.

I am openly expressing potential options by stating that scum have a counter to the Mason.Hider thing.
How should I "blame my teammates" for not killing a Hider? That's...sort of the point of a Hider, last I checked.

With ACFan's claim - I mildly take the VT claim at that stage as a town tell.
I am quite content with the idea of lynching Serra, however, he continues to be weird scum.

[Thor665]

How should I "blame my teammates" for not killing a Hider? That's...sort of the point of a Hider, last I checked.

@Serra - most of my commentary towards you is dismissive snark meant to show how scummy I think you look.
But on reading it again to tell myself how clever I feel this struck a chord with me.
Please address this question in as serious an answer as you can manage, thank you.

[Thor665]

Have you read the game? He announced who he was gonna hide behind, so your buddies should have just killed droog's slot.

No, I haven't read the game.
That was poor scum play, I'll agree.

You haven't read the game at all, have you?

No, I thought I made that clear a while back when I not only said I hadn't but indicated I had no intention to.
What of it?

Well, you were trying to discredit it by emphasising how the game I mentioned

was a newbie

. Beyond that, with all your posturing, you haven't really properly argued against what I'm saying.

Yes, beyond flat out pointing out that you had no basis and forcing you to clarify what you meant (which was apparently 'nothing' you are correct that I have not directly attacked your action.
Whut?

2. I am not calling your case sloppy - I am calling you scummy for dodging and ducking the responsibility of codifying your case - because that's a scum move.

Nope, I'm refusing to go through me own ISO and dig up posts about reinoe because if you really were interested in my reads, you could do the same. You're dodging and ducking the responsibility of reading the game and making an effort to understand the game state and how reads formed in the last 2 days, instead hoping to rely on your ability to manipulate people into voting me. It's a cheap tactic, and I hope you recognise it'd have no chance of working with any town half worth its salt.

Dodge, dip, dive, duck, and dodge.

If people were to admit that your play today is, at best, not alignment indicative, they might look back at reinoe and see how scummy he was. Unfortunately, I doubt anyone but you is even reading these posts, let alone looking at anything I've been linking, so that doesn't look likely.

Maybe you should link to your case on reinoe?
I'm pretty sure someone was really weird and scummy and suggested that as a strategy at some stage - I recall you dodging it, but maybe it would help people understand this case on reinoe since apparently now you're arguing that my play today is null - which is not what you've been saying.

Then I expect people to vote you, frankly.

Have you given any thought to who I might be scum with? You excluded Aero earlier, but now you also want to have a town read on AC, so I guess Aero is back to being scum?

Yeah, I would say that's probably correct. I find AC less scummy than Aero at the moment. I would oppose an AC lynch and support an Aero one - so, yeah.
Is there a reason Aero can't be your buddy?

And finally, can I just reiterate how insanely stupid my play would be as scum. I guess you could reasonably not believe I figured out TSO was the other mason, but if I'm scum, suggesting to massclaim and having all of us claim VT so we get PoE'd down to 3/5 would horrendous play.

Depends which order your scumbuddies had to claim in, natch.

@thor: how would you expect scum ACfan to replace out? Wouldn't holding his claim put his successor too much on the spot?

No.
Also, as last claim, and as theory scum, I would expect at least a mild PR claim since that would remove him from the chopping block in both the immediate and long term situation considering other claims.

Smart scum replace out would have been just to replace out.
Town replace out was to provide the info asked and then replace out.

So either he's terrible scum or town.
I currently lean town.
What's your call?

[Thor665]

Replacing out that way doesn't point to town or scum in one way or another.

I explained specifically why I feel it does - could you be specific about why you don't?

[Thor665]

I just think SB is the safer play but eugh.

As long as you're wavering could you do me a favor and look at the posting from Serra. Even if you wish to decide that his ducking of presenting his case is fine and dandy - please note that he goes from 'Thor is playing scummy and here's why' to (after I question his meta) 'All I want to show is that your play today is null so people pay attention to the reinoe case"

He is hyper classic case avoiding scum - tell me I'm insane or vote him, please.

[Thor665]

I agree, you did change to that after I called you out on what you were saying.

[Thor665]

Thor, what's your read on SB?

I find the defense on me slightly overstrong - I don't support an SB lynch today though.

I agree, you did change to that after I called you out on what you were saying.

Nope, here's what I initially said:

For anyone in danger of town reading Thor, I would recommend reading the most recent newbie I modded.

Yup - that is what you initially said, which was most assuredly *not* coached as 'Thor's actions are null in my opinion' but rather as 'Thor is playing scummy'.
If anyone read it the other way around I would be happy to hear about it though.
I rather doubt they did - because it's not what you tried to imply.

There was pretty much one claim left and it was him if he claimed something else it would of put the slot in a lynchable position tomorrow if I got lynched.

Thor, why do you think that a PR claim from ACfan wouldn't get him lynched?

I feel like both of you are overlooking that his neck was already on the block today - a PR claim *was* the conservative and the semi-decent move. A VT claim and an 'outta here' was literally the worst scum move possible.

[Thor665]

All tells are based on individual moments. You look at a vote on a town read (which - frankly, I rather doubt any scum player would be daft enough to do, as though sounds like derp town through and through to me) and have that as a big hinge for you.
The rest of your case looks empty to me.
You then act like my case based on one thing is empty in return.
It's all a matter of opinion at this stage - and you'r enot going to change my opinion by complaining in an empty manner like you are.

Could you tell me if Serra looks remotely town to you or not? I'd very much like to suggest he's the cleanest lynch we have at this stage. Do you disagree? If so - why? Do you like my case on him? Do you understand my case on him?

[Thor665]

I am literally saying the opposite of what you think I'm saying.

[Thor665]

a PR claim *was* the conservative and the semi-decent move.

Read this part again ^^^

That is not saying that a VT claim was the best move.
I know people accuse me of being opaque in my thoughts, but I really don't feel this one is my bad.

[Thor665]

[1]I thought your previous argument was that a scum would claim PR to save himself. Otherwise he was terrible scum.
[2]When really, claiming PR at that point would have put him in MORE danger because it would mean a 1v1 with Garmr.
[3]And would have put him in a more likely position for lynch.

[4]As opposed to the option where scum claims VT because that's what town would do.
[5]And leaves us where we are now; divided.

Maybe I need more coffee.

1. That is indeed what I said - and it's not my previous argument because nothing I have said indicates I believe the other way.
2. This would be true if he was not ALREADY the top lynch option - as I said, you're ignoring that.
3. There were already at least 2 (maybe more) people who had expressed issue with Garmr's claim - that is a very reasonable 1 v 1 to go into especially if you're scum in a limited set people are already agreeing to lynch from and also scum from said limited set who a near majority have already agreed to lynch first.
4. I agree, it is what town would do - but I am literally the only person choosing to townread it, so it's not like it was a wham-bam brilliant scumplay.
5. The only division is me - and though I'd like to make it a stronger division do you really think he expected someone else to spot that and to champion it for him? I'm dead serious - because that's what you appear to be claiming as scum evidence now.

thor why aren't you voting acfan

anything relating to serra is a joke answer - give me a reason or I'm just going to decide he's a scum cw and ignore you for the rest of the day.

I'm not voting acfan because the case on him as I understand it is SB's PoE thing, and I consider Serra the better PoE option of the given set as he is independently scummy whilst also being in the PoE set - is there something more to the acfan case that I'm missing?

Don't toss up derp stonewall to me man - I have made my case on Serra and for some reason you're not talking with me about it, whassup?

Masons v goons a setup I have played before. It's consistent and allows Garmr to buddy the Smurf out of the masons. When they cease to be useful, he kills them "townfirming" himself. Hider is easy to fake as scum since he already knows alignments. It also allows Garmr as his buddies to come on at the end of wagons which is what I think has happened all game

How do you think Garmr's current claim looks fake?

You've been on this site for almost 2 years. There's no way you're this clueless.

Then color me also that clueless - I think your concept of balanced is pretty narf.
You appear to be arguing that Hider + 2 Masons v. rolecop and 2 goons is balanced.

Nah.

[Thor665]

Thor, I literally already explained it but I will summarize.

1) Garmr changed his claim from even a basic ISO skim of him. The last person I saw change the number of uses their role had was Young and Beautiful in InuYasha mafia. They were scum I tunneled til my mislynch.

2) Garmr's claim allows for him to "townfirm" his buddies or buddy people by labeling town snd then kill them when no longer useful.

3) It does not fit balance.

1. I've lied about number of shots as town before though - it makes decent sense to do that as town.

2. I will agree with this, but town power seems light if he is not speaking true.

3. I disagree with this, though agree with you that the balance appears wonky at this point.

Please hammer, elle. I can't take any more of this game.

Allow me to translate this for you;

"Claim: Scum"

Let's see if other people notice.

[Thor665]

@Thor

2. What of we had a healing role or somesuch faking to not be outed? That would be more balanced.

Depending on the scumteam, sure.

Would you be willing to lynch Serra?

[Thor665]

Yes but I would prefer Garmr first.

I would oppose that at this stage.
I will also suggest that the support is not there for this lynch - could I get a Serra vote?

[Thor665]

Le sigh.

[Thor665]

My ability to read a playerbase.
You support it.
Aero...maybe still does.
SB opposes.
Serra opposes.
Elle opposes.
TSO, I think, opposes.
Droog is a wildcard.
I oppose.

So, even if I went super into the idea, it's a bit of a duece as to where you and I would get 3 more votes. Maybe Aero, Droog, and...whom? TSO? It's an uphill lynch climb and not even one I think makes good sense at this juncture.

Conversely Serra is acting scummy as all get out and is also mildly psychotic in his defense of the game setup as it currently exists. If he flips scum, as I'm basically certain he shall, the Garmr question becomes a whole lot clearer tomorrow - especially after we see who scum does or does not kill.

So.
Serra vote?

[Thor665]

Vote: aero

Baaaah.

[Thor665]

Thor, because he was really trying to get Garmr lynched as quickly as possible yesterday, and supporting that awful theory

[Thor665]

Oh don't start that gak again.

[Thor665]

@Thor, what's your read on SB as of right now?

Considering my current read on Serra, scum.

Oh Smurf off

I am sorry that you are scared to reassess information and strangely reticent to discuss empty cases you're pushing for no real reason.

well once all scum are lynched we will find out.

I would side with Serra on those odds. What exactly is a roleblocker supposed to block? The Masons from being Masons or the Hider from hiding? One is clearly useless and the other doesn't really work via normal action resolution, so...?

[Thor665]

I don't need to reassess information, Thor. If you were town, you might reconsider your position in light of yesterday, rather than stick with your rhetoric against me.

Fascinating - I have truly lead a crusade against you today, eh?

You think both Serra and SB are scum, but you're voting for me?

I said considering my read on Serra I found SB scum. Yesterday I was voting Serra and not SB and indicated no desire to lynch SB.
Today I have called SB scum, and have not voted Serra.
I don't think I'm being opaque - though I'll admit Serra is being dense about it because he's stuck in a tunnel and doesn't realize it.
You, however, remain perfectly fine as a scumspect regardless of my read on SB or Serra unless, yes, I thought both were scum.
i don't.

[Thor665]

I am sorry that you are scared to reassess information and strangely reticent to discuss empty cases you're pushing for no real reason.

[Thor665]

Well, thor, you didn't really give any explicit indication that you'd changed your read on me, but I admit I was falsely under the impression you were still pushing me.

Yes, because yesterday you were my top scum read and today I came into the game and decided to sheep Garmr because for no reason at all I decided that was better than previously, when I had been actively pushing you.

Feel free to pick up with the game already in operation now as you exit the tunnel.

[Thor665]

Scum also decided not to shoot at a target the Hider apparently claimed.
I'd try not to burn too many brain cells on it till conclusions start being shown as wrong or we get closer to a theory lylo.

[Thor665]

Scum also decided not to shoot at a target the Hider apparently claimed.

Uh... scum did shoot one of the targets Garmr cleared...

Claimed - not cleared. Garmr correctly grokked what I meant.
Scum are playing wonky this game.

I guess I can see the logic of thor's interaction yesterday being somewhat ballsy as scum, so I'm willing to soften my stance and focus on SB and aero for a while.

His changed read on me isn't really alignment indicative since, if he's scum, he'd know it'd go into lylo anyway.

While I appreciate sentence 1 - I will note that your reactions showcase a lack of reality in sentence 2.

[Thor665]

Where are you intending to go with this conversation?

[Thor665]

Our arguments haven't really done much to shift anyone's opinion throughout yesterday. If you're scum, the path of least resistance would be to have SB and aero be the next two lynches, and trust that you'll win in lylo, when your scumread on me would be secondary to the remaining player's belief that you're town. I'm not saying that's more likely than the alternative, but the fact that you're not pushing me alone isn't enough to give you a townread.

That is meaningless to my point, but I will agree with you on the basic info you're theorizing with here excepting the opinion shifts I was able to cause yesterday - yes.

You realise garmr claimed he was 2-shot, yes?

I do, I commented on that specifically with him yesterday - I am not sure how this matters to what I'm saying today.

[Thor665]

Thor: If you're assuming Aeronaut and I are the scumteam then what was my gameplan Day 3? Open with a bus on Aeronaut and then when it didn't work out switch over to my other buddy while hard defending town!you?

I noted that I thought the strength of your defense on me was unusual and didn't make a lot of sense.
I will agree that what you did to Aero was a pretty hard bus - that said, what Serra did to AC was a harder bus - so until I get a scum flip that makes me question the Hider or Mason I would say you make more sense for scum, yes.

[Thor665]

I've also looked at the newbie game that Serra linked... and I just really think he needs to die today.

It was bad enough when Serra did it.
I'm guessing you missed where I got him to admit the link wasn't really about showing me as scum, but rather simply showing I look townish when I'm scum and therefore a whiny plead to null read me despite me looking town.
I'm actually moving past 'baaah' to 'Yeah!' for my vote now.

[Thor665]

You also are, like SB, selecting a tiny portion of my case on you, and responding to it. What, to afraid to refute the whole thing?

I didn't particularly see a number of points needing refutation. I did see a comment that suggested skeevy thought, and pointed that out. if other people like your case on me I'll address it then, but since you're for the rope at the moment, I don't see much of a need to sweat it, really.

In short - I'm more interested in attacking than defending right now, and appear to be in a position t allow myself that preference.

@Serra - you may feel free to start tunneling me again because Aero's dance has me looking sideways at you again as compared to SB. Though I suppose maybe it's the ol' 'I'm for the rope, time to distance' routine. Meh... Whatever, that's my reaction.

[Thor665]

What's your reaction on what I've just said, Thor?

I already stated my reaction - which part do you think I didn't respond to?

I'd be okay with voting SB, but I kind of think you need to be today's lynch.

[Thor665]

I don't see why people are regarding serra's sudden shift to kill Titus as townie or anything like that. The switch came across as unnaturally sudden and he was already the leading wagon and pretty much dead, so serra's contributions were hardly necessary.

Can you be specific about what is unnatural about it?

[Thor665]

His very first response in 1805 was clarifying his action though, it was only when addressing your comment that he did 'wifom'.
I don't think this holds water regardless of his alignment.

[Thor665]

@SB - you are selling me, I'll admit it. Aero first?

@Garmr - That's kind of a random value call though, we could probably cite either/ors with me and Aero as well - the either/or is usually an empty commentary. All you really know is that Serra and I seemed to want to lynch each other. The same is true for me and Aero, and for Aero and Serra. It's an empty rule out because if you're right that it's a valid either/or then there are scum outside the group or the either/ors are flawed..

[Thor665]

Serra/SB also.

[Thor665]

Anything there particularly defeating any of my stated either/ors or strengthening yours?

[Thor665]

Unvote: Aero

I'm happy to see a last will & testament.

[Thor665]

If' Aero is a duelist I am highly amused by the possibilities of the setup now.

[Thor665]

So you're going with a preemptive claim of lying on his part, Serra?

[Thor665]

I need sleep, but this claim sealed your fate, I'm afraid. Fwiw, I think even if you're town you're probably just a VT. If by some twisted turn of events you're actually vengeful, that might even put garmr and elle right back into the mix. Oh God I hope you're lying.

Fake feels feel fake.

Garmr calling bullhookie on it makes sense as it's his head on the block against no matter if he calls it or not.
Also does put Aero's Garmr push in a theoretical different light.

@Aero - any crumbs?

[Thor665]

What does that matter? He didn't claim Super Saint.

[Thor665]

Though, actually, I suppose I'll endorse that plan regardless.
Unless he has cool crumbs - then maybe I'll let him hammer you

[Thor665]

Since that will be highly unlikely to happen since we have an either/or with you in the making right now - okay?

[Thor665]

Also once aero flips scum look into thor he did this with titus to if he thinks a scum slot can be saved he will do it.

Please explain to me how asking for crumbs equates to me being scum.
Also, could you please explain why you are okay with Serra's reaction if mine is a scum one?

[Thor665]

If he had something air-tight then I would be a fool not to ask about it.
If he had nothing - then I would be perfectly fine in asking about it and then declaring it as nothing.

I fail to follow how asking a question and indicating willingness to lynch you if the evidence sells me equates to me somehow being scum.
You also are apparently not noticing that though I am making straight commentary - Serra is sidelining his opinion HARD and yet, somehow, you find me more objectionable, and I still fail to follow as to why.
I did not do the same thing with Titus as Serra is doing with Aero - I actually did the same thing with Aero as I did with you when I replaced in, remember? You were okay with that then, it seemed.

[Thor665]

Of course you 'know' this.
Now, besides knowing your own your role PM, is there anything actually strange in me assessing Aero's claim? Because I'm starting to hear 'no' as the answer.
Sorry - your speed lynch is in another castle.

[Thor665]

I disagree - I would say kill Garmr.

Stop.












Mjolnir time.

Vote: Aeronaut

No whammie, no whammie.

[Thor665]

I suppose they could, but I have never seen it. It would be an extra scum killing role, and pretty powerful - it would be like a Scum Vig - which I have seen (Day Vig, specifically) but that was in a Large.

[Thor665]

I think it was in one of the Song of Ice and Fire games, if I recall correctly.

[Thor665]

No it's not? Give me recent example of scum seriously buddying.

Isn't that your case against me for the AC thing? Why is my hard defense and buddying a scumtell for me, but when someone does it towards you it means nothing?

@Garmr - the only validity I see towards a 4 man pair is the odd amount of town clearing power versus not a lot of flipped scum capability. The thing is, that is also a valid argument for a third scum with a good PR, so it's kind of a non-starter at this stage.

I'm actually in agreement with you that scum probably are beefier than they appear just because it would help explain that odd droog shot, and also maybe the lack of shooting at you when you were apparently claiming targets. I also think the conversation is mildly meaningless at this particular stage because a no lynch is unlikely to be helpful to us as either you or Elle will die and...big whoop for that. So, really, we have to take a stab at most likely buddy regardless.

I'm catching up all over site today, and have some work to catch up on either, but I'll promise to pay some real attention to your VCA, and maybe add a bit of mine also, as I do think this is a good time for that. Really, I mostly want to just mine AC/Aero and try to get a feel for who they did or did not actually push.

[Thor665]

Looking over AC I could see a functional connection to either SB or Serra.
Functionally he treats SB the same way he treated Aero though - as in total not conversation topic.
He was supportive and protective of Serra.
I also think anyone reading that iso and still thinking I'm AC's partner deserves to be forced to explain how they think that looks like a bus in any way at all - because you usually don't leap off a confirmed town clear to then press on a rando-bus from nowhere last I checked.

[Thor665]

The most I get from Howl (and that one indeed just took seconds) is that, again, I think it makes it pretty clear I'm not in the mix, mostly due to that second to last comment from him.
Seriously - he called *both* of his scumbuddies jumpy?
Tell me more.

I don't see anything that enlightens me on the Serra/SB axis.

[Thor665]

Aero played the most complex game of the scum I've looked over.

The SB interactions are hard to read as scum/scum. It *might* be distancing, certainly on the last day it almost reads like that, but the AC lynch day he almost seems annoyed and seems more intent to argue with her about ruling me/reinoe out for some reason which might make sense if they're buddies and he was annoyed by the rule out of a town player, but, y;know, at that stage why would SB rule me out in any case? Buddying? Meh. The only reservation I have is that he did try to paint a SB/Thor scumteam, with SB as the first to go. That move makes more sense if SB is his buddy, though it may have just been an attempt to set up a 'whelp, was wrong about one, but certainly not the other, huzzah!' sort of attempt.

I find the Serra/Reinoe thing interesting, as he doesn't really talk about the debate and basically dances around weighing in, yet on the day where there's an option of Thor or AC he kind of suddenly recalls that he found Serra more townish for it due to 'reasons' and somehow I look scummy for...also 'reasons'.

I got no info out of Golden's iso

I think I'm leaning Serra as the most likely due to interactions. The flipped scum either seemed to have pointedly no opinion about him or were vague to townish on him.

[Thor665]

Looking back over my thoughts I think I support my Serra conclusion AC leans a bit more for SB as scumpartner, but the Aero/SB interaction is pretty complicated stuff if just a bus.
Scum blatantly wanted Garmr dead, so I also tend to lean that they didn't have a GF or equivalent - and if they had an RBer who could lock on him then they played it amazingly dumb..

[Thor665]

@SB - do you have any completed scum games I could look at? Preferably ones where you went deep into the game, maybe even to lylo?

[Thor665]

I don't have any scumgames on MS. I can link to some offsite games if you want I guess?

I would very much like that.

It might actually be SB. He's been terribly justifying his scumread on me.

Yeah, I kind of figured once I asked pointed question about my "scumbuddies" that I'd be off the table magically.

But, okay, let's say I want to buy in to the idea that SB is scum - what have you got, really? The Aero interaction doesn't really look too sensible for a scum/scum. I mean, it might, but that's some pretty solid scum play if it is.

[Thor665]

@SB - do you have any completed scum games I could look at?

Preferably ones where you went deep into the game, maybe even to lylo?

The bolded is an important part of the ask, fyi

[Thor665]

Yeah, it can be tough to stay motivated when busted. Actually I don't care about the SB thing anymore, I'm good.

Vote: Serra

[Thor665]

So, what was the deal with not killing Garmr though? Was it the idea he would lie about target?
And why kill Droog prior to TSO?

[Thor665]

You suck , either way.

[Thor665]

You're either scum dorking around right now, or you are playing terrible town.

[Thor665]

Brilliantly reasoned, derpsicle.

[Thor665]

@SB - do you have any completed scum games I could look at?

Preferably ones where you went deep into the game, maybe even to lylo?

The bolded is an important part of the ask, fyi

I still want this.

Also, now I don't even need to scumhunt Elle - by the time I post again that question will be answered.

[Thor665]

Also, now I don't even need to scumhunt Elle - by the time I post again that question will be answered.

I'm really tempted to hammer you just for this.

I was cleared by the two shot hider so whaaa?

No - you were cleared by not voting me.

Vote: SB

I have no fething clue what the last scum role is, but a Godfather sort of thing made sense.

I find SB's case on me to be a joke - I refer you to the evidence I presented yesterday of how I specifically don't make sense as a partner to Aero or AC and welcome SB to attempt to make the case that I am.
SB's only clear was the dustup with Aero - I had both other scum actively trying to lynch me.

Feel free to ask about any parts of that which you don't see/understand/or agree with and I'll spell them out.

[Thor665]

I would have to pretty much be the worst scum ever playing the way I have been lol. Scum SB's gameplan would have been: open D3 bussing Aero, when the wagon doesn't have enough force to push through rather than staying on it and pushing my other scumbuddy off a cliff and then going to finish off Aeronaut next day, all the while hard defending you which guarantees that I look awkward when we reach LYLO and the two of us are still alive, wasting the towncred I would've gotten from the doublebus.

I agree you tried to tie yourself to me via an awkward defense of me in a way that made no sense during a period of time you were getting some heat.
Except that makes perfectly fine sense for scum you to do - I even commented on it at the time, so did Serra as I recall.

Both scum pushed you, but like I said the pushes weren't actually made to get you lynched. elle, ISO acfan and look at how he pushes reinoe. The vote is there, but there's no attempt to get anyone to vote reinoe's way other than "I think reinoe is scum" and Aero put in more effort D4 lynching me than he did lynching Thor.

Yes, as long as you ignore that both scum pushed me repeatedly with no case - which is the definition of scum trying to get someone lynched, then the pushes weren't made to get me lynched.
That would be the same scum randomly voting me and forcing me to claim - y'know, as bussing often looks like.

Also Godfathers would still kill off Hiders apparently, so we ruled it out as a possible role pages ago. If it worried you, why did you only bring it up now?

As I said 'Godfather like'.
Also *I* was the one who brought it up in order that it was ruled out, pages ago.
Almost as if I've been saying for some time that the game balance looks screwy to me.
Did you miss all that while reading my iso and deciding scum had never pushed on me?

[Thor665]

Enlighten me, how did my defense make sense as scum?

Because you expected me to be lynched, and net you cred, or you feared your lynch and wanted to tie me to you.
It's scumplay 101 stuff - have you seriously never seen it nor thought about it?
Stop playing narf.

And @ the Godfather thing, I brought it up like... literally the post before you did lol. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p6552894

As long as you ignore when I brought it up about 100 posts previous - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p6546549
Like, literally one of the first things I said upon entering the game was that the setup looked unbalanced to me.

[Thor665]

Tbh looking back thors had some really big reactions to you and titus's lynch compared to when others were offered. It only becomes obvious after the game is done and everything is known through. Anyway I want to hear what Zar thought of the game. It must of been interesting to him.

It has often been said to me that my scum play is obvious - albeit it is said from DeadQTs.
There may be some truth to that - maybe I am obvious once you have enough pieces of the puzzle.
I'm content with that, really, as it doesn't seem to affect how easy I am to catch yet

@Aero - no worries, this was a bit of a derpfest from the get go, I feel good getting as deep as we did

*

And when I made it a point to say that whoever of us between Garmr and I was alive today would vote whoever of SB/serra we'd left alive, Garmr didn't commit to that as I had - so I was thinking it might be a factor for Thorscum to kill Garmr over me.

Didn't even cross my mind - he was blatantly more obv. town than you and also was more involved than you. i kept you because you looked weaker and were less confirmed.

*

And Thor coming into the day as if I wasn't conftown didn't sit well.

I stand by that as good town play, on my part.
Yes, I'm aware I was scum - still.

He really should have not claimed instead and then replaced. That way Titus could claim something

Agreed - that was a weird choice. I tried to spin it as derp town simply because...well, it *was* hideously anti-scum play if he was scum.

[Thor665]

I was honest in my opinions that I thought the setup was screwy and badly balanced. I consider a potential 4 town clears on Day 2 in a game of this size pretty terrible at face value.

[Thor665]

Yeah, but that's the extreme case. Had your buddies and reinoe shot correctly, d3 could have been mylo. The hider adds a fair amount of swing, but only amounts to the same utility as roughly another mason (for a 1shot, and a second shot doesn't tend to help much unless played well).

Is it an extreme case?

Barring a choice to claim - a Hider played even half decently can get to the night phase.
If he draws a shot for looking town - it is pro-town.
If he hides behind town - it is pro-town.
If he hides behind scum - it is pro-town.
If he hides behind a Mason - it is arguably pro-scum in a loose way.

Basically, to avoid the situation you deem as extreme;
Scum have to shoot a Mason or the hide target and not shoot the Hider.
Hider has to target a Scum or Mason.

Functionally, town has two chances at achieving this - increasing their odds of it happening.
I think Hider is literally one of the most powerful town investigative roles in the game, and I also think Masons are one of the most potent roles in the game for pro-town play.
I'm pretty sure the math favors my 'extreme' possibility as happening more than 50% of the time - which...makes it not extreme.

But, let me maybe come at this in another direction - would you consider this same setup balanced if the role was not Hider, but a 2 shot Cop who was confirmed to not allow Godfathers to affect his ability and was investigation immune to the Rolecop?

[Thor665]

I mean, just off the top of my head, but barring the Day 2 kill - was there a single day where scum didn't kill a confirmed town player?
Because that is not scum getting to kill who they want - that is scum trying to play catchup.
And that is why the setup is imbalanced.
Scum should have the right to control their kills - that is half the power of scum.

[Thor665]

Day One? TDA wasn't killed for being a Mason, he was NK'd for being unlikely to be lynched.

Yes, and Night 1 was also a desperately fortuitous shot that barely kept scum in the game - albeit while dealing with the functionally BP mocking Cop.
Also, that's not what I asked - what I said was how many nights did scum kill non confirmed town? Functionally the Mason could have been confirmed at any point.

The odds of the Hider hiding behind a VT slot on night one were about 50% objectively speaking; roughly 20% of hiding behind a mason, and a 30% of functioning like a weak Cop. These probabilities of the hider acting like a weak Cop increase slightly on Night 2, as do the odds of shooting the hider and a likely target.

I agree with your discussion of the odds here.

I get that the Hider isn't liked by many players, but scum did have the power of choosing to get it removed if it was a nuissance rather than let him live and hope he would get lynched because of Garmr's fairly antitown play on day one.

I agree - with fairly anti-town play scum was given the chance to possibly rebalance the setup presuming Garmr never lied in their opinion.

In functionality, it feels to me, like serra says, as fairly similar to Friends and Enemies. A variant of this setup with a Mafia Ascetic thrown in the bunch could even work as an Open Setup.

I agree, the inclusion of one of the most powerful scum roles in the game, and the direct counter to the very powerful town role would shift the game balance of this setup towards more of an equal footing.

[Thor665]

Day One? TDA wasn't killed for being a Mason, he was NK'd for being unlikely to be lynched.

Yes, and Night 1 was also a desperately fortuitous shot that barely kept scum in the game - albeit while dealing with the functionally BP mocking Cop.
Also, that's not what I asked - what I said was how many nights did scum kill non confirmed town? Functionally the Mason could have been confirmed at any point.

To clarify what I meant here - functionally the Mason role means that the instant you get it as your role what it says is 'scum has to NK this slot at some point - because it is a slot that cannot be lynched'

You handed scum two obligatory NKs.
And then a role that could become one itself and create a potential of two more in addition as well as being semi-BP.
So, at the end of Night 1, either a scum would be outed or town would have 2-4 obligatory kills for scum to make regardless of the relative quality of those players.

The effect of this on the scope of the game can be seen by the results of the kills - as I said, only 1 kill was functionally a free choice scum kill. All others were obligatory.
That's a tough bill of sale for a scum team. You might as well have less players and make it a nightless game or something at that point, in my opinion.

I will admit 'clears' are, in my opinion, the vastly most potent town effect in the game as they remove the whole 'uninformed' aspect from town and, consequently, batter away at scum's real benefit against being the minority. I actually prefer investigatives like watchers and trackers for that explicit reason. However, even for someone who thinks 'clears' are great, I submit there was far too much of that tech in this game.