Mini 1653: A Game of Pokes - game over

[massive]

So ... can I still random vote?

[massive]

It would be a fascinating study to run, you know -- create ten new accounts, have them claim vanilla townie in their first three posts regardless of role, and see how long they survive based solely on the newbie goodwill.

[massive]

After reading back through thoes relevant posts, I started thinking that he was trying to see exactly HOW other players would react to such a post, whilst mine came off as newbie explaining everything, a quick look at Slandaar's profile revealed that he has been around for 3 years more then me, reaffirming my opinion that his post was to gauge other player's reactions.

Yours did NOT come off as a "newbie explaining everything," and the more often you say it, the more often I think it isn't true.

massive...are you not doing anything on purpose? Still thinking things over?

I'm a late bloomer.

I think a better 'experiment' would be to try and post actual relevant information and more than 2 posts by page 5.

This post reads like filler to not trip the prod counter and look like you are participating while actually avoiding it.

Fascinating. At this point in the game, you have nine posts. (Ten comes after this one.) How many of them do you think are actual scumhunting (I count zero, mostly talking about RVS and then about the quickclaim) and how many do you think are filler trying to LOOK busy but not actually BEING busy?

[massive]

@Massive when I said that I "came off as explaining everything" I was referring to how some of the other players in the game (such as Cheetory6's post #20 on the first page as well as vikingfan's post #118 on page 5) were either writing me off as extreme newbtown or saying that to them I feel like a new player explaining everything I do.

Oh I'm not disagreeing that some people have read you that way. I'm saying I'm not and nobody should be.

randomidget

: Any comment on Cheeto or havingfitz? You seem to be central to their isolated discussion.

[massive]

massive - My first note on you is post 108. And really I'm just wondering why you decided to make that non game related observation that shows you are paying attention to the game but clearly are not taking an active participant status in it. Fitz totally calls you out in post 112 and deservedly so. Get in the game, man.

My response to fitz in 126 may seem like cheek, but it's not untrue. It takes me a little while in each game to be able to differentiate between players, and in this game I've only played with fitz before. The continuous flow of subs isn't helping either. But I'm here and definitely paying attention, happy to answer questions.

kelbris

: What is it in Slandaar's recent posts that make you so confident he is scum?

[massive]

I voted massive for a reaction. I disliked his reaction of pressuring me without referencing the vote.

It was a completely blind vote. What reaction would you like me to have in this instance? It's obviously either (a) for a reaction or (2) because you're a goober. So now you've forced me into caring whether you're playing or are a goober. I assume your blind vote in 76 for Slandaar was ALSO a reaction test? Clearly you got the results you wanted from Slandaar, would you like to share with us what you saw that made you think he was town?

[massive]

if you are town and not scum (doubtful) you are so blinded by OMGUS you don't even make sense anymore.

The irony in this quote is painful. Your case includes "I don't believe you actually were sick" and you expect us to believe Slandaar is the OMGUSy one?

If it comes down to Slandaar or Riblet, I'm more likely to vote Riblet. Riblet's case on Slandaar is hands-down awful, but I can't see scum sticking out their neck like this to draw so much attention to themselves D1. Slandaar's countercase isn't as bad, but it's causing him to ignore the rest of the game to some degree, which makes it feel like defense is all he's got right now. Neither are obvious scum so, if pressed, I'd vote for the one providing more noise than content. That being said, I hope it doesn't come down to that.

unvote
vote OkaPoka

[massive]

@Massive what is your opinion on what Slandaar is saying? Did you feel in any way influenced by Riblet's vote?

Whether I felt influenced by Riblet is immaterial to whether Riblet was trying to influence me. Why shift the focus to me here?

massive pls answer my question.

Uh ... what question? Is it this?

Lol. Wat.

I hope you have some solid reasoning behind that vote.

Why do you hope I have solid reasoning behind my vote? Also, this is not a question.

[massive]

Everyone who is voting someone who they do not strongly want lynched should unvote.

Why do you think this is a good idea?

massive why vote me?

Because you're scum.

@Massive the reason I asked you is because I wanted to get your opinion on his post/vote right after yours in an attempt to confirm/deny what Slandaar was saying, especially since Riblet has replaced out so we have no way of asking him.

What I think you're asking is, "Did you see it as an attempt to influence you?" and not "Did it influence you?" which is what you originally asked. The answer is no; my question was tongue-in-cheek (as we were clearly still in RVS despite what other people might have believed) and it seemed an appropriate response during RVS.

[massive]

@Massive - Can you remind me why you are voting Oka? I had Hodor as Town.

I'm actually now WAY more curious why YOU are curious.

@Massive that is a much better way of explaining it then what I did, since you were not influenced by it that would mean that part of Slandaar's argument against Riblet/his replacement is gone.

This is still incorrect. You are still confusing "Riblet did not influence my desire to vote" (my point) with "Riblet did not intend to influence my vote" (Slandaar's argument). The question is in the intent. If you want to attack that aspect of it, you need to leave me and my reaction to it completely out of it.

I know exactly who OkaPoka replaced and am voting him for his actions since replacing. I can't even imagine how we don't lynch either him or Saul now.

[massive]

Oka is about two weeks late to tunnel on Kelbris. He ignores everything else that is going on to try and restart the initial wagon, and that includes Riblet v. Slandaar. Tries to direct the cop in 199.

I'll be very curious to see how Saul recovers, since 216 should make it clear that I'm not interested in lynching either Riblet (now Formerfish) or Slandaar, and that's also the same post I vote Oka in.

And what is your read on FormerFish?

My first note on Formerfish was "Note to self: Formerfish buddying in 249" but that's not enough to get around either (a) my townfeel from Riblet (see again 216) or the actual work he's put in since arriving. Right now I'm still town on FF.

[massive]

So you are claiming that post 216 did not contain your reason for voting Oka? If not, what is your reasoning? I asked before when I told you I was Town reading Hodor.

Post 216 contains two things: (1) an analysis of Riblet v. Slandaar and (2) a vote for Oka. The two are disparate.

I ignored your question because (1) I was more interested in Oka's reaction and (2) because I don't really see a way one could townread Hodor, who had seven posts, one of which was blank and one of which was asking to be replaced.

[massive]

I guess I have similar concerns about how you came to scum read Hodor, who had seven posts, one of which was blank and one of which was asking to be replaced.

I had Hodor as null. I'm pretty sure I've said I was scumreading Oka for his own actions. This is a nice bit of deflection though.

[massive]

No shit I would vote kelbris 2 weeks late.

I replaced in the game, not start in it. Your point is null.
When does town not actively pursue lynching mafia?

The point is, there was an entire game worth of other things to post about -- Riblet v. Slandaar, the wagon on Randomidget, etc -- and you elect to dredge up a wagon from pages 1-3 rather than pay attention to ANYTHING at the moment of your actual replacement. You've said literally nothing about anything EXCEPT Kelbris. Well, and me voting you. Are you trying to distract from the randomidget wagon?

[massive]

How else do you interpret someone saying "If I was the cop, I'd do X"?

[massive]

Then you are wrong.

[massive]

If either of you think that scum need to be blatant in order to try and direct power roles, then you need to work on the subtle aspects of your games.

[massive]

Massive. You need to pull your head out of your ass here. Kelbris said that with a VT claim a cop would know not to investigate him. Oka said that if they were a cop, Kelbris would be high on their list of targets for an investigation. Oka is telling Kelbris why their theory on claimed VTs helping town is incorrect. This is not an example of someone trying to direct PRs, this is an example of someone explaining what they would hypothetically do in a given situation.

Look, if you don't like finding out why I'm voting for someone, then don't ask, OK? I realize that this is somewhat misdirected at you, but honestly I could give a rat's left nut if you agree with what I found scummy about Oka, and having both you and Saul step up to defend him is patently ridiculous. What could possibly be so townie about Oka that the both of you feel this strong of an urge -- strong enough to evidently vote ME -- to protect him?

Oka is saying, if he were the cop, that the claimed VT would be tops on his list of people to investigate. Not a popular wagon. Not a person he's trying to figure out the alignment of. Not anyone who's actually done scummy things, of which there are plenty to choose from. SPECIFICALLY the claimed VT, SPECIFICALLY because he claimed VT out of the gate. Obviously Oka is NOT a cop due to his wording, so who exactly is this phrase for? It's definitely NOT for Kelbris in an attempt to explain to him why his early play is bad for the town (otherwise someone else would have mentioned it by now, since everyone already weighed in on this a week ago). So what is it? A scare tactic? Legitimate good townie play?

No. So you must believe that Oka is just a bad enough player to actually investigate a claimed VT on N1. He even SAYS it would be wasted, but that he'd still do it. (Note that I am just now even seeing how in 199 Oka knows that investigating Kelbris N1 would be wasted, and doesn't even consider the result that a cop might get a guilty on Kelbris, despite that being the ENTIRE POINT of that sentence.)

So is that the Oka that you're defending?

Slandaar, I see you posting, and it's not lost on me, I'll follow up in another post, no sense in it getting lost in this.

[massive]

Aristotle

: I do agree with Slandaar that constantly looking for flips to help you scumhunt seems suspicious. Do you require this in every game? If so, a couple of links to review?

[massive]

I'm voting for you because your purported logic doesn't make sense according to your own internal logic.

According to you, this is the logical disconnect:

I don't really see a way one could townread Hodor, who had seven posts, one of which was blank and one of which was asking to be replaced.

I guess I have similar concerns about how you came to scum read Hodor, who had seven posts, one of which was blank and one of which was asking to be replaced.

Which I answered here:

I had Hodor as null. I'm pretty sure I've said I was scumreading Oka for his own actions. This is a nice bit of deflection though.

Would you like to try again?

[massive]

Prod dodge. Not usually online on the weekend but will be back bright and early in the morning.

[massive]

Nobody's lynching Kelbris today. His early claim was an all-too-easy target and it now has failed to produce any meaningful train in two attempts. The kid has been informed why this was a mistake and still hasn't done anything overly scummy. There are plenty of better targets.

I'm still happy with my Oka vote. I'm looking forward to seeing more in the fitz / random conversation. I like Slandaar but he's giving me that feeling I get when I know I'm being too tunnelly.

[massive]

He posts in a way which comes across as knowing too much.

Can you give a few examples of this? I just reviewed his ISO and couldn't find any real good examples.

[massive]

Seems too self aware for newbie town.

Do you think a newbie scum would be this self-aware? It seems like the moniker you have argument with is "newbie" and not necessarily the alignment.

[massive]

Whilst Monkey has not done anything specifically good/bad so far, I prefer to not let the predecessor determine my vote, I prefer to evaluate a slot on teh merits (or not) of the current member. At this time, I am getting a null read from him, Riblet was acting scummy sure, BUT that does not mean he IS scum, rather his playstyle in this particular instance made it seem such. Monkey has not acted scummy and his posts have not had any slips or scumtells, so I prefer to leave him as null for now.

So I am trying REALLY hard to give you the newbie benefit of doubt, but I don't see any practical reason for anyone who plays this game to do this. Why would you ignore valuable information when trying to determine someone's alignment, just because they got replaced?

[massive]

While I'm not super excited about my company on the Oka wagon, I'm still feeling better about lynching Oka than most of the other options.

[massive]

Oka -- Do you have ANYTHING else on anyone you're scumreading other than they're voting for you, and your bad case on Kelbris? Because this

Exactly why my wagon is scum ridden.

Just sounds like salty scum.

[massive]

OK, I have no idea why Wickedest and FA are starting a counter-COUNTER-wagon with 18 hours left. And I have no idea why Kelbris is still defending Riblet/Fish with that horrible "I'm going to ignore what the slot originally did" logic.

[massive]

If you have an issue with this bandwagon, please criticize the reasoning and not the way in which it formed (which I see nothing wrong with).

That's a smokescreen. At T-minus 18 hours, as a townie, you should be focusing on the available options and ensuring there IS a lynch. Just because you got lucky and had two other people jump aboard (FA who voted at the same time as you and who couldn't have read your case, Oka who is voting only out of self-preservation) doesn't change the fact that you could have just as easily hung that vote out there uselessly and had no one join your cause, thereby possibly avoiding lynching ... someone.

If you want a new bandwagon, start tomorrow, when we can adequately discuss the options.

all have scum equity

Single white large male seeking Captain Picard "What is this bullcrap?" GIF ... must like long walks in dimly-lit alleys, actually hunting scum rather than using phrases from Mafia Banking 101 ...

[massive]

I want to go back to how this Monkey wagon even started in the first place, because it's going to drive me nuts.

Unvote.

kelbris- The scummiest of the three for me. The sacrificial-acceptance post is pretty null, don't fall for it. Oka started playing that card first. Even if he's town, this is still a great strategic choice for the reasons previously stated.

At this point in time you state that Kelbris is the scummiest of your scum reads. Why, at this point in time, do you not vote for Kelbris? There are two votes on him (Fishie, Oka) and NO ONE is voting for Monkey (until your preview reveals that FA just did). He is the counterwagon you want and can probably run up. So why avoid that? Yes I realize you "wouldn't let a no-lynch happen" but I just cannot understand for the life of me how STARTING a new wagon at T-X hours (your vote was Thurs 10pm according to my boardclock, deadline was at Fri 5pm) when you have half-a-wagon started on one of your actual scumreads.

Unless it's you / Oka / Kelbris, in which case you played masterfully and I feel your pain.

Now that you know Monkey was town, how do you feel about your case on him?

[massive]

Some day I'm going to end up referring back to this game as "The One Where Kelbris Tried To Squeeze Every Scum Tell Into One Game."

Massive, so you are thinking that Monkey was a cc to Oka?

Must be, right? I mean clearly the people who started the Monkey wagon didn't want to vote for Oka:

-- FA, who would rather coach Oka in 477; who is pretty much just sheeping Wickedest in 479 and throughout the rest of the Monkey wagon (despite being the "first" on the wagon, he is clearly hopping on Wickedest's reasons for voting Monkey)
-- Wickedest, who thinks he has spotted a scum slip
-- Oka, who is doing so for self-preservation reasons

But it also comes across as a Kelbris counterwagon. Both FA (479) and Wickedest (437, 486) say they're OK with a Kelbris lynch. Kelbris already has votes at this time. Why this sudden strong need to build a new wagon? There's plenty of scum that we need multiple correct lynches. I still haven't gotten a good answer about why this wagon even needed to start up, and I still don't know how it all fits together. (Obviously they aren't ALL scum together.)

Do you think Oka was bussing Kelbris?

Ordinarily I wouldn't say yes to this but dang, look who's voting for each other without processing any of the information from Monkey's lynch or Slandaar's kill?

[massive]

Further, how was I 'hopping on' Jester's reasons when he hadn't even posted it yet? My post went in before his.

Wickedest.

VOTE: MonkeyMan576
I really think this is the likliest place to find scum thus far.

Look at the Oka and FA reads. Monkey scum read Oka for low content but null read FA_Q2 for the same trait: low content. When Oka points this out, Monkey ignores him.

Then I bring it up again and Monkey responds with, “That's because FA is a replacement, and I was mixed on the two different players.” This is an awful explanation though, because FA being a replacement does not change the fact that Monkey null read him for low content when he thinks this is a scum tell for Oka. It doesn’t matter if he confused FA with another player - he still null read FA for low content, something that he voted Oka for. Also, FA is still not a replacement.

I think Monkey slipped up. Either that or he’s town whose thought process I simply can’t comprehend.

Try again?

------

I went to a new wagon because I thought monkey was the scummiest player at that time and the killbris wagon was not going anywhere. We had been talking about lynching killbris the entirety of day one and it simply was not happening. I could have went there but I doubt it would have ended in a lynch at all.

This does not jive with your actual opinion from D1:

Not much has happened in the last 4 pages to change any of my reads. Aristo still seems damn scumy to me but does not seem to be an option for today's lynch unless something changes witht the current wagons. I would really prefer a Monkey or Random lynch - I think they are both awfully scummy players. Monkey even moreso but there does not seem to be any steam there as well. I could compramise on the killbris wagon because of

Try again?

------

I can't possibly fathom the Formerfish vote.

[massive]

I'd like to hear from Wickedest before I answer any questions about how I feel about him.

[massive]

Aristophanes

: Can you elaborate on what makes YOU worried about OkaPoka? Also, can you answer fitz's question from 532?

Formerfish

: Probably would be good if, with your request for prods of other players, you actually post your own thoughts?

I don't see anything suspicious in the hammer. If you force someone into the position of being the hammer no matter what, you take what you get.

[massive]

I realize it's only Day 2, but isn't it time to start ACTUALLY scumhunting?

Fish is town. Wickedest is town. Fitz is likely town. The rest of you need to start convincing us why we shouldn't be voting for you.

----

Ongoing Kelbris checklist:

Buddy the dead cop : CHECK

[massive]

I'm sorry, I didn't realize I had to put disclaimers on my posts. Will definitely do so from this point forward.

And by "hunting" I assume you mean "tunnelling randomidget" because I don't see much hunting anywhere else. You hopped on Monkey close to lynch, and other than that you've ONLY been on randomidget, so I'm not sure why you'd say "nobody's been going with [you], especially on random."

Also: When you say "I think what you mean is that people aren't necessarily voting WITH you," you should probably check to see who I'm actually voting. SPOILER ALERT: It's no one.

----------
DISCLAIMER: All statements presented in posts by myself are the sole opinion of myself, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of vikingfan.

[massive]

Scum don't kill people because they're right.

[massive]

Can we please not speedlynch anyone? We still have 15 days.

[massive]

VOTE: Randomidget

I could also entertain discussion on FA_Q2 and vikingfan maybe. I'll follow up in the morning.

[massive]

Why random in particular?

Why random indeed? Do you see any town in his play? Even let's say you just focus on today ... do his votes look particularly towny to you? Does his game interaction seem towny? He says

There is scum in the people trying to influence people on the nk.

but makes no effort to actually follow up on this or use it as a basis for voting, instead moving from Oka to an OMGUS vote and then back.

[massive]

Are we giving up on Oka? Have we just gotten bored or did I miss something where he was tow and Idget was scum?

If you can easily sum up the case on Oka's scumminess OR can confidently say 2/3ds of Oka's wagon are town, then let's have it.

[massive]

Oka is a content void.
Oka has bad scumhunting based on nothing. Has done this on 3 people (Kelbris, Monkey, and Fish)
Oka really wants to look active/helpful but doesn't.

OK, let's look at these three points.

1. Other players are participating just as little, if not less so. What specifically makes it worse that Oka is doing it?
2. There are plenty of players who did bad scumhunting with regards to Kelbris, and I think everyone had their moment with Riblet (who Formerfish replaced). Even the Monkey stuff isn't that horrible (see [http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p6710202]392[/url]) and he's hardly the worst vote on the end-day bandwagon.
3. This is probably contradictory to Point 1. Is he posting no content, or content meant to look helpful?

Even in your spoilered section, you brush over the discussion with Monkey. Oka isn't wrong in asking why FA gets a pass and random gets a townread, but he gets a scumread for essentially the same behavior.

I guess here's the real question: If I put up your three points against FA or Randomidget, wouldn't they be just as legitimate?

[massive]

We now have 9 days to lynch. We're getting hung up attacking non-players and scum are happy to let the conversation die.

Monkeyman576(7): FA_Q2, Wickedestjr, OkaPoka, Saul Goode, vikingfan,

Slandaar

, havingfitz

Gotta figure that this isn't all town. If Oka is scum, then two of his buddies aren't on his wagon, so there's at least one more scum on Monkey's wagon. Who is it?

[massive]

We now have 9 days to lynch. We're getting hung up attacking non-players and scum are happy to let the conversation die.

Monkeyman576(7): FA_Q2, Wickedestjr, OkaPoka, Saul Goode, vikingfan,

Slandaar

, havingfitz

Gotta figure that this isn't all town. If Oka is scum, then two of his buddies aren't on his wagon, so there's at least one more scum on Monkey's wagon. Who is it?

What do

you

think?

Well, I was hoping to start some actual discussion that I could read when I get back in on Monday (I'm usually just on the periphery on the weekend) but apparently no one else thought it was interesting. Right now I think it's Saul but it could also be FA. I have you and fitz penciled in as town and am leaning town on vikingfan so it could be some amount of POE.

Since I'm in the office today and not at home, I don't have TV to distract me. As long as the Avengers Alliance daily mission isn't something good, I should be able to go back and ISO as many people as possible.

[massive]

I'm as big a fan of vote analysis as the next guy but what you are suggesting in this post is crap (no offense).

I'm horrible at vote analysis which is why I wanted to raise the discussion. And make no mistake, that is what this was, an attempt to spur discussion, which is sorely needed in this game if we are going to have any chance to win. Sadly, I couldn't even get actual responses from the active players -- I get a "no what do YOU think" and a lambasting of the mere suggestion of discussing it.

Common sense alone dictates there is 1 or more scum on Monkey's wagon. But even so...your conjecture about Oka being scum serving as an indicator that there's at least "one more scum on Monkey's wagon" is of no help, and in fact makes me wonder what your point actually is.

The point is this:

1. If Oka is SCUM then there aren't two scum on his wagon. Hence, it is very likely that one non-Oka scum is on Monkey's wagon.
2. If Oka is TOWN then it is still likely that there is scum on Monkey's wagon, and it's not Oka.

Either way, we are ignoring Monkey's wagon completely and I think we need to look at it.

You are willing to raise suspicions on the Monkey wagon based on the presumption that Oka is scum...yet you are not voting Oka....and you are not voting anyone in the group (i.e. Monkey's wagon) that the "at least one more" consists of. So you are staying away from the 33% chance or better odds of hitting scum that you bring up and instead go for the 20% or less chance of hitting scum off the Monkey wagon. (25% or less if you discount yourself). Either way, you're opting for the less attractive situation that you yourself are bringing up. And that's not counting the possibility that all presumed three scum could be on Monkey's wagon. And more importantly...it ignores the possibility that Oka is town (I hope not) in which case scum could be anywhere...in any number or either wagon.

Evidently it wasn't clear that my post was to start conversation (despite it saying "conversation is dying" and that me attempting to restart it follows logically) but the attempt at math here makes me itch.

[massive]

Also THIS:

It is a complete toss up for me between the two of them.

also makes me itch. Given that it's a toss-up between the two, why vote for the one who ISN'T at L-2?

[massive]

Monkeyman576(7): FA_Q2, Wickedestjr, OkaPoka, Saul Goode, vikingfan,

Slandaar

, havingfitz

Gotta figure that this isn't all town.

If Oka is scum, then two of his buddies aren't on his wagon, so there's at least one more scum on Monkey's wagon

. Who is it?

Would you mind explaining the bold? I'm not following you here.

Sure. If Oka is scum and there's a viable bandwagon, his buddies aren't going to sit on Oka for towncred in the off-chance he gets lynched -- they're instead going to (at least one) vote for the counterwagon in an attempt to save their buddy. Make sense?

[massive]

I hate how this game has devolved into picking the worst of the two worst choices. I'm not saying neither of them are scummy, but they're so blase about playing the game that they've actually bored the thread to death. But none of us who are invested in the game are going to turn on each other until they go?

We're all so polite.

[massive]

Kop replaced Kelbris. That sentence right there is enough to make you pause.

Rando is going to shoot. We are not going to try to handcuff him because that idea is fucking stupid.

And then what do you propose we do with him? Do you want to take him to endgame? Scum aren't going to kill him, even as a confirmed townie.

[massive]

who do you suggest sir?

See, this is the problem. We have two obvious lynch choices going into the day, neither of whom has done anything to distinguish themselves as being particularly town. What this means is that it's easy for scum to blend in with town because they can just do what we're ALL doing -- wanting to lynch you or Randomidget. We all agree with each other.

So either the scum team is Oka / randomidget / Kelbris, or you guys are making it impossible for us to differentiate between the active townies and the active scum.

So maybe Aristophanes? He seems happy to lynch either of you, and seems to ONLY go between the two of you. Honestly it's starting to get POE-heavy, since I feel good about Formerfish and havingfitz, and wickedest has made me feel better about his counterwagoning yesterday. Makes me think I should look at vikingfan's ISO too.

[massive]

Also, if random is a one shot vig and we kept him alive and allowed him to shoot whoever he wanted, then he could accidentally shoot another town power role. If we tell him who to shoot, that is no longer an issue.

Why do you think that us directing random's shot would be any better at avoiding a town power role?

Wicked. If we tell Rando to shoot Kop and Kop is a town PR he is going to out himself to avoid dying, which is just as bad.

This is essentially what would happen, yes.

---

I gotta say, I don't like how (a) random's claim has prompted a discussion of how to use his kill, but nothing about who to kill and (b) how it's essentially derailed us from scumhunting. I don't see any indication that random (a) if he is town that he will willingly take the shot we call or (b) is actually town / working for the town. So I think honestly I'm happy with my vote where it is.

[massive]

unvote
vote OkaPoke

The counterwagon to Oka D1 was on Monkeyman-town.
The counterwagon to Oka D2 is on the claimed 1-shot vig.

As much as I hate to admit it, flipping Oka will help determine what the deal was with those wagons.

[massive]

Why does it matter if it's announced that you're at L-1? You've been lynchable for days.

[massive]

Anyone else feel like the scum team could be rando/kop/?

Think about it, rando pretends to be a vig, and then has kop come out the gate saying why they think rando was blocked and that he is really town.

I don't. I get the feeling that there are scum in the middle of the ballpark somewhere (FA, Aristophanes, Wickedest maybe?) that are just pleased as punch that we have these poor-playing townies that we just Can. Not. Lynch.

[massive]

Vote Count 1.13

OkaPoka(6)

: massive,

Monkeyman576

, Kelbris, Aristophanes, randomidget, Formerfish

Monkeyman576(7)

: FA_Q2, Wickedestjr,

OkaPoka

,

Saul Goode

, vikingfan,

Slandaar

, havingfitz

Vote Count 2.8

OkaPoka(6)

: havingfitz, FA_Q2, Wickedestjr, Formerfish, massive, Aristophanes
randomidget(1): vikingfan
vikingfan(1): randomidget
Kop(1): OkaPoka

Not voting: Kop, evilpacman18

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

THATS A LYNCH.

Going back to look at FA_Q2 and Wickedest as they were on both wagons. Havingfitz, too, I guess, since even though I think he gets a pass for being forced to be the hammer, he still was on both wagons.

[massive]

FA_Q2

My concern originally was that FA_Q2 was just bouncing onto the Monkey wagon because he saw Wickedestjr start the motion -- that it's a wagon of opportunity. Unfortunately, that's kind of shot out of the water because scum!FA could have just hopped onto the Oka wagon. By his first reads-list in 377, FA is certainly listing Monkey as one of his scumreads (along with Aristophanes); Oka is a null. That's consistent with his voting on the end-of-day wagons D1.

But by 620, he's now doubting that Oka is town. Could be due to the competing wagons from D1?

It seems like my biggest problem is probably that he doesn't vote people that he finds suspicious. See 377, and then not moving onto Oka on D2 until he thought he was hammering. There's plenty of analysis but it seems vote-light. Especially since he was happy enough to vote for me for perceived lack of involvement.

But that's probably null at best.

Wickedestjr

Again, now with Oka confirmed town, it seems less likely that the Monkey wagon is to save Oka, which makes the whole play less suspicious. I mentioned originally that it could be to deflect attention away from Kelbris/Kop (as the likely counterwagon to Oka should one need to start back up) but I still think I'd find it easier to just hop on Oka in the name of expediency.

What made you abandon vikingfan as a top scum candidate from end-of-D1 to post 646? You answer questions from him even. Your interactions with him post-vote even don't seem like you think he's scum (see 699, 815 for example).

I'll be interested in what Wickedest has to say upon return from VLA.

Fitz and whomever else after lunch.

[massive]

If I was scum why would we shoot Saul.

EPM was the NK. I don't know why he was killed. Feel free to continue speculating.

Same person. What's your point here?

[massive]

Same slot:

evilpacman18

Saul GoodeFlames of Disaster

Killed Night 2

[massive]

When he's talking about "why would he (as scum) kill Saul" he's talking about the slot. You differentiating between two players in the same slot is just to confuse the issue.

[massive]

More to the point, I don't like how you are tunneling onto one possible hypothesis for this without even considering the much more likely scenario of rando lying.

Why does scum-randomidget lie about changing his night target?

[massive]

Sure, but why would he come into town the next morning and claim he changed his target to some other non-dead player? Why wouldn't he just say he shot Kop and was blocked? What's the benefit of the extra information?

[massive]

When he's talking about "why would he (as scum) kill Saul" he's talking about the slot. You differentiating between two players in the same slot

is just to confuse the issue.

He's not talking about the focking slot. The only reason a slot matters when it has changed players is when the slot is a PR or is confirmed town or scum. In hindsight the Saul/EPM slot is neither (hindsight also being where random's comments are made). So no...there is no reason to assume random is talking about the slot.

Do you think he missed that Saul was replaced by EPM? Is that what you're saying?

And why should you expect answers to any of your questions when you don't feel the need to answer questions asked if you?

How about answering mine then?

Sure, but why would he come into town the next morning and claim he changed his target to some other non-dead player? Why wouldn't he just say he shot Kop and was blocked? What's the benefit of the extra information?

[massive]

I'm interested in voting vikingfan.

There, that help?

[massive]

Any thought on finding scum among the vote counts? It's page 39 and we've yet to see much investigation on those. Currently, fitz (though forced to be the hammer), wicked, and FA are the ones on both lynches so that is a place to start.

I already brought this up AND posted my thoughts on FA and Wickedest. Would you like to go back and reread that and discuss it now instead of then?

[massive]

Do you think that if Randomidget, as scum, submitted "Saul" as the NK choice, that the mod would just kill the slot? Do you think that none of his buddies would know the correct current player in that slot?

[massive]

I don't know. I want to understand your points because I'm mostly townreading you but I feel like we're getting caught up on nitpicky semantics things.

I am interested in the NK. Was it to frame me or because Saul was onnthe right track.

EPM had two posts -- one saying "Hi" and one saying he'd catch up overnight. Saul is definitely the right player to reference here. The problem isn't who he references, now that I'm looking at it, though. Saul's D2 play was minimal at best, but the one thing he DID do was vote Random. Why would Random think Saul might have been killed because he was on the right track, if Saul's track was that Random was scum?

I also think I know why Saul was killed.

I think both Random and viking are good options today.

[massive]

There's absolutely no indication that we have an SK. Scum would have had to block Randomidget on N1 and there's absolutely no reason for that. We have had no nights with more than one kill. Please let's not get distracted by setup speculation with zero proof.

[massive]

The longer the day goes on the more I am convinced that my vote is in the right place.

That's funny, because the more often you post, the more I see you defending Randomidget and having no case whatsoever on Fitz.

[massive]

FA:

Is it correct to say your entire case on havingfitz is because he's pushing to lynch Randomidget?

[massive]

So you're saying either:

(a) Randomidget is lying about his shot and is scum, or
(b) scum have a roleblocker that blocked Randomidget

Doesn't (b) point to scum-Kop?

[massive]

But I said I wasn't shooting kop,

You did absolutely no such thing. You completely avoided the conversation that occurred regarding who we expected you to shoot. Your last post before the discussion is 808-and you do not comment on the discussion at all in 832 or 835 which are about Oka, and those are your only posts before the next day.

[massive]

Ah damn it I knew I should have previewed.

[massive]

vote vikingfan

[massive]

I don't see any reason to mass claim. We've snagged ZERO scum so I can't imagine how it would be helpful.

[massive]

Here are my notes on vikingfan.

242 votes Randomidget for stating Kelbris is town and having no reasons for this.
496 Votes Monkey for no reason other than to get on a wagon.
526 blames the D1 wagons for forcing him to abandon his top scumread, Randomidget, despite not pushing Random other than the vote in 242. Also doesn't vote Random here.
688 moves from 'top scumread' Random to 'nowhere near endgame' Random
738 disbelieves Random's claim AND suggests directing him in the same post
744 moves from 'nowhere near endgame' Random to 'purposefully avoiding the game' Random

If anyone had any reason to roleblock Random's one-shot vig, it's Vikingfan. He knew he'd never get Random to commit to shooting Kop, and Random had already said vikingfan was a suspect in 809. I mean, he certainly TRIES to get Random to commit one way or the other, but fails spectacularly.

858 interestingly calls the plan to direct Random's kill Fitz's. Was it Fitz's idea to shoot Kop? because it was vikingfan's idea to direct the vig.

Up until 1004, he's pushed no other scum candidates and had no other town reads.

[massive]

unvote

We can win this, guys. We get one flip and I feel like the rest will fall in line.

[massive]

I resisted the urge to

invite

[massive]

Wickedest

: Does your gut read on Aristophanes have any non-gut aspects?

Aristophanes needs another prod.

I went and did my own follow-up on vikingfan calling the idea to shoot Kop "Fitz's idea" in 858. Looks like it's actually Aristophanes in [url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p6811513]844[/wwurl]. Not sure that has relevance.

[massive]

Seriously I even previewed that one, where did those WW's come from?

[massive]

It's not Aristophanes, it's definitely vikingfan who is running that show.

738: Do we direct him or do we forego having him shoot at all?
771: How do we know even if we are directing him that he will shoot who we want?
783: Can we replace him?
804: How do we know even if we are directing him that he will shoot who we want?
807: Can we replace him?
812: Are you going to do what we tell you to do?
843: Are you going to do what we tell you to do? (while voting him)
852: Gonna keep voting him until he says he'll do what we tell him to do
858: Fitz do you think he will do what we tell him to do?
866: Are you going to do what we tell you to do? (the Circle Yes/No edition)
882: Well clearly he's not gonna do what we tell him to do

END SCENE

Aristophanes' involvement is basically to say "if we lynch Oka, are you OK shooting Kop?" That's 762. He runs with that in 795 and 844 and moves his vote to Random to try and force it, but it doesn't feel nearly as desperate to line up a confirmed shot as vikingfan does.

[massive]

I don't think it matters whether he has a shot left or not.

[massive]

Um, first of all, it was clearly documented on days 1 and 2 that rando was clearly not involved in the game. If you want to go back and look, clearly and repeatedly, rando has not been involved. When called on various things, he has said repeatedly, 'I forgot to post that' or 'I thought I said that'. The last thing I wanted was for him to weasel out and say, 'I forgot' AGAIN. Heck, even a statement, 'yes, I am going to shoot tonight' would have sufficed. SOMETHING to show that yes, he is involved and playing the game. That wasn't forthcoming and for that reason I am still dubious that he is town...had he claimed VT instead of vig, he would have been long gone by now. As it is, it's an unprovable claim, espeically if he claims tomorrow that 'well I don't have my shot anymore'. Then what?

Why was it imperative that you know whether or not he was going to shoot? At which points in the day did you think he was town, and which points did you think he was scum?

[massive]

So that we could verify if he was telling the truth, of course. I think you've forgotten just how much rando was under fire day one and two and probably would have been lynched if not for his claim. I still don't think he's town per se, but if he is, he has been very dumbtown especially day one and two. think about how he assumed he was just 'lynched' and how he says he posted things but forgot (too many times to count). I think you've forgotten just how scummy he was day one and two, although admittedly day 3 he's been far better at being engaged. not sure why you're asking the same questions over again I just answered. And now rando has said that if he was blocked, his shot is gone, so that makes his claim perfectly unverifiable now and now makes him VT with an ability nobody can prove he ever used.

Maybe if you were pushing him to answer IF he was going to shoot. The real difference here is not that you were concerned IF he was going to shoot (to potentially determine whether he was lying about his role) but WHO he was going to shoot. WHO he is going to shoot is immaterial to determine whether he's lying about his role -- if we have two deaths, no matter who they are, then he was telling the truth. WHO he is going to shoot is only important if you have the ability to affect it.

[massive]

I don't see Formerfish letting his team kill Slandaar N1 after the rumble Slandaar and Riblet had D1.

[massive]

I don't see Formerfish letting his team kill Slandaar N1 after the rumble Slandaar and Riblet had D1.

Is that because you know FF's metaor because you wouldn't have done so yourself?

I don't play meta. It's more about the Riblet v Slandaar fight from D1 -- I don't think if you have a scum in that fight, that you want to prove one half of that fight is town.

[massive]

Just for clarity's sake.

Aristophanes is the one who suggests Randomidget vig Kop. It's not scummy as it's presented as "Oka and Kop are both sketchy, Random should vig whoever we don't lynch."

Vikingfan is the one who pushes the plan and continuously asks who Random is going to vig.

Vikingfan is also the one who miscredits the plan, so that's something to keep in mind.

[massive]

I don't play meta. It's more about the Riblet v Slandaar fight from D1 -- I don't think if you have a scum in that fight, that you want to prove one half of that fight is town.

I suppose not.
Wouldn't he the first time I've seen something of the sort though, and having replaced the spot, not the one arguing it himself, I could still believe it.

Yeah, I don't know. I went back and re-read it and Slandaar was still pushing to lynch the slot, even after Formerfish replaced in. Slandaar is a notorious tunneller and it IS possible that scum killed him to let scum-Formerfish have some time to come into the game. ... either way, it's not something that needs to be sorted today, I don't think.

---

The only thing my re-read has really done for me is make me wonder how on earth Kop is still around.

[massive]

Vote Count 3.4

vikingfan(4): Kop, randomidget, wickedestjr, FA_Q2
Not voting: Aristophanes, vikingfan, Formerfish, havingfitz, massive
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

I'm also a little concerned that NO counterwagon has popped up at all. No one is even SUGGESTING lynching anyone but viking.

[massive]

Viking, I too would be okay with a Kop lynch, but as you say, perhaps that is better for another day?

What other day do you think would be a good one to lynch Kop on?

I know we are getting close to losing this and I don't like it, but what can we do when it seems everyone has placated and is just cool to lynch whoever the wagon is on?

^^ Scumposting.

To anyone else who feels like they're just floating along, happy to lynch whoever the wagon is on: if you have someone else that you would like to push as a viable candidate, how about giving a case on them and trying to change people's minds?

When the scum haven't yet lost a member, do you really think they're going to start off day 3 by bussing a fellow scum member without even trying to raise a counterwagon? Or do you think they're going to latch onto the easiest scum target possible?

Why do you think that you are the "easiest scum target possible"?

I'm V/LA through the next week but will be phoneposting a bunch.

[massive]

One day five hours as I write this.

vote vikingfan

[massive]

Oh hey there's a second page. Well, Viking, mise well tell us the truth.

[massive]

Wickedest, I'm going to be really pissed if you turn up scum in the end.

Say what you want about POE, but there's absolutely no reason for me to hammer my scumbuddy when I can ignore the thread and let the no-lynch happen. There's no amount of towncred that replaces a scumbuddy. A no-lynch is as good as a mislynch if I'm scum. I'm not saying FA isn't possibly scum, but I am saying you need a re-read, and since you've been one of my favorite townreads in the game, you need to do it with some urgency.

---

I'll be very curious to see how Fitz comes around after having vikingfan confirmed scum and randomidget (essentially) confirmed town.

---

My hammer: I saw FA's post at the bottom of 43 and thought I was posting immediately after it. I didn't go back and see there were additional posts until I saw some non-FA post immediately above my posted vote.

[massive]

Say what you want about POE, but there's absolutely no reason for me to hammer my scumbuddy when I can ignore the thread and let the no-lynch happen. There's no amount of towncred that replaces a scumbuddy. A no-lynch is as good as a mislynch if I'm scum.

You said you didn't know you were hammering...

And you can't honestly believe all of this. Firstly, a no lynch was never going to happen. I believe there was ~25-30 hours left at the time of your hammer. It's unreasonable to think that one vote could not get cast in that significant period of time. Secondly, a scum buddy is valuable, but the scum buddy in this case was already getting a lot of votes. I think town credit can replace a scum buddy that is already about to get lynched.

Have you ever bussed as scum before?

My hammer post stated what the timer showed. You've had timer / deadline issues all game, haven't you? And evidently I was the only one not voting. Do you think any of the people not voting for vikingfan would have moved?

And nice leading question. Do you ask a lot of questions where the answer is obvious and known to all players?

[massive]

And nice dodge.

I would like to see you address the point as well. You just put fourth VERY poor logic in defense of yourself. That, IMHO, is generally done by scum.

Do you think there's a realistic reason to ask someone if they bus their buddies as scum?

[massive]

That would be impressive.

[massive]

But if you can't honestly say that, then I have no reason to trust that you wouldn't bus vikingfan here.

If you think I would bus vikingfan in this situation, do you also think I would present a comprehensive case on his scummy behavior during the Randomidget shooting fiasco? If you think I would bus vikingfan here, how do you feel about being the (arguably) person paying attention and having a legit reason to vote randomidget? If you want a busser, it's FA (see 1029) who is happily jumping on your bad argument.

And the answer is, of course I bus buddies as scum. Everybody busses. Which is why it's a ridiculous question. The question you want, if it's a legitimate question, is "have I ever lynched a scumbuddy" and the answer to that is no. My games list is in my wiki entry.

[massive]

"Not a PR" is not a reason to vote someone.

[massive]

If you think I would bus vikingfan in this situation, do you also think I would present a comprehensive case on his scummy behavior during the Randomidget shooting fiasco?

Yes, that would not surprise me. Following the crowd, alone, would serve no benefit to you.

For the sake of argument, why are two voters on the wagon of a now-confirmed scum more suspicious than two voters on the counterwagon to said scum?

If you think I would bus vikingfan here, how do you feel about being the (arguably) person paying attention and having a legit reason to vote randomidget?

I'm sorry, I don't know what you're asking here...

Confused idgets. Should say "legit reason to vote vikingfan." For reference: Does 1019 look like the work put forth by a scum bussing his buddy?

If you want a busser, it's FA (see 1029) who is happily jumping on your bad argument.

Sounds good (but that doesn't make you town), you should vote for him.

And I will. There's no reason to hurry through today when we still need to find his buddy.

And the answer is, of course I bus buddies as scum. Everybody busses. Which is why it's a ridiculous question. The question you want, if it's a legitimate question, is "have I ever lynched a scumbuddy" and the answer to that is no. My games list is in my wiki entry.

What specifically do you mean when you say "lynched a scum buddy" ?

I mean "voted to lynch a scum buddy." What other interpretation is there?

"Not a PR" is not a reason to vote someone.

This seems like a misrep.

You should really be better about looking it up. Or maybe you've already seen 1029 and think it means something else?

[massive]

Random

: Can you talk to me a little about your Wickedest townread? I'm not saying I disagree, I just would like a sanity check.

[massive]

I started to read FA's ISO and got pulled into a more detailed read. So I'm around and working.

[massive]

You can see where I'm at. I'm home sick so I'm going start-stoppy.

------

495: When vikingfan chooses his end-of-D1 wagon, he jumps on the smaller of the two (Monkeyman), saying he's not a fan of the people on the Oka wagon. He knows both wagons are on town, so the only thing that makes sense is that Oka's wagon is already loaded with the other scum (or one scum in on Oka, and the other is not on either wagon). MIGHT be a point for FA-town.

514: vikingfan defends havingfitz for the "quick" lynch vote. Fitz's vote isn't scummy in itself (we put him in the situation) but vikingfan jumping out to defend it gives me a little red flag. But he could have done it for the towncred in any case, potentially figuring fitz would get heat D2 for the "quickhammer." Dang that's winey.

548: Formerfish requests prods and then doesn't post his own thoughts, and so I thought to myself, how much HAS Formerfish done since replacing in? So I scanned his ISO. He avoided the vikingfan lynch and so far ONLY voted for the low-hanging fruit (Oka, Random, Kelbris/Kop) the entire game. Someone's going to need to look objectively at Formerfish at some point and I don't think it's me, since I still don't see how scum kill Slandaar N1 if Riblet/Fish is scum.

566:

Wickedest

: In this post, you criticize havingfitz for relying on strong townreads as one of the reasons he chose who he voted for at the end of D1. Considering your entire case today is centered around relying on strong townreads, and considering you've said that's the most common way you play the game, why would this strategy surprise you?

643: Don't like how easily Aristophanes abandons his Oka case.

646: If you weren't townreading wickedest yet, this is probably the post that breaks the camel's back. D2's wagons were on Oka and Random, both easy lynches at that point, and he pulls up and starts one on vikingfan. Interesting that Fishie soft-defends the start of a viking wagon in the next post.

675: vikingfan lists Fish and Random as throwaway names when talking about the Monkeyman wagon. Since we're trying to discuss who is scum there, it doesn't make sense for him to name his scumbuddies, and since we know Random is town, that's more proof in that direction. Town point for Fishie?

------

Unfortunately, NONE of this is helpful in the FA discussion.

[massive]

I've already explained why I suspect you and FA. It has nothing to do with the fact that you both voted for vikingfan. You both could have voted for Kop yesterday and I'd still suspect you. Admittedly, I would suspect you more if you had voted Kop yesterday, but your vote for vikingfan doesn't help your image enough for me to townread you.

You've already stated that FA and I are scum simply via the power of POE. Why would I have an image problem that needs improving? Have you ever stated what you think IS my image problem?

massive wrote:
For reference: Does 1019 look like the work put forth by a scum bussing his buddy?

It doesn't seem particularly telling either way.

For my sanity, would you compare the strengths of my 1019 versus the unnamed things that have you townreading fitz / Fishie?

So you are claiming that you have bussed a scum buddy, but never voted for a scum buddy?

I am claiming I have never voted to lynch a scum buddy, which is exactly what you quoted. Misrep pot, meet misrep kettle.

It's a misrep because you're implying that FA voted viking solely for the fact that he was not a pr. But FA had other reasons, the belief that he was PR is simply all that was preventing him from voting viking initially.

Is that true? Then why didn't you point it out to Aristophanes during your careful reading?

I was incorrect. FA, you had townreads on Viking throughout the game and stated dislike for his wagon. Was the townread solely based on thinking he'd crumbed a PR? You barely addressed him at all the whole game.
In the reread, 475 stuck out to me. It reads as "He's scummy, but he was like that last time as town too, so it's cool."
Iso FA and search "Viking".
Looks a lot more like scumbuddying than I had previously realized and like he had to vote him having built up the potential fakeclaim too much.
1005 almost looks like he tried to remind Viking he'd missed his chance to fakeclaim his crumbed role. The VT claim was tacked on to the end of the post in question, making it easily missed. I think this could be a slip of sorts.

Iso FA and search "Viking".

And so I did and there is no evidence of your statement. AND YET I don't even see why it would be material. Why are you defending him since you are certain he is scum?

[massive]

I was like, didn't the mini open back up? Where is it on my "View Your Posts" page? Oh, nice, no one's posted in it.

Time to go back and reread yesterday. Wickedest's POE is now officially 0 for 2.

[massive]

Jesus Christ not this again. You continue to spin this "never voted a scumbuddy" thing to however it fits your argument when clearly what we have been talking about FROM THE START (and what's relevant to this game!) is whether or not I have ever placed the lynching vote on a scumbuddy. Whether or not I have voted to lynch. Whether or not I have voted, in the vernacular, to hammer a scumbuddy.

IN THIS GAME, IT MAKES NO SENSE FOR ME TO HAMMER VIKINGFAN IF HE IS MY SCUMBUDDY.

I HAVE NEVER HAMMERED A SCUMBUDDY.

Being wrong about FA should have triggered a rethink of your POE and yet you continue to stand and needle on about this nonsensical meta non-tell, still with empty hands for an actual case against me, and it's getting embarrassing.

[massive]

That is a lot of work you did there. I am the doctor. PLEASE REDIRECT THIS ENERGY.

I'm now thinking Fitz is one of the remaining. I saw some stuff at the end of D3 / beginning of yesterday that didn't sit right with me but I really need go settle in and reread some stuff.

[massive]

I'm not saying anything until Kop and Aristo confirm me.

[massive]

Because I know I'm the doctor, and I didn't expect Aristo or Kop to counterclaim me. Hence >> confirm me.

[massive]

Wickedest, go ahead.

[massive]

Right, I keep starting this and forgetting about it for some reason.

N1: Wickedest. I had good townfeels and thought he was speaking articulately and intelligently, backing up his Monkey wagon with fairly decent reasoning. He was making pretty much zero noise, providing all good posts.

N2: Wickedest. With both D1 wagons revealed as town, Wickedest was even more likely town.

N3: Random. I told Iknal I'm going to be really sad if Wickedest ends up scum and THIS ends up being my moment of genius in this game. Vikingfan was exposed as scum meant Random pretty much was confirmed town, which made him the top scum target.

N4: Aristophanes. Knowing scum knew there was a doc out there, I figured they would start doc-hunting and not take a second shot at Random. I mean, they had to, right? Leaving Random in the game is like leaving Kop in the game at this point -- they aren't providing any content or trying to figure the game out, which is exactly what scum want in endgame. Aristophanes looked the most doc-like to me from the outside.

[massive]

vote havingfitz

and yeah, there's no way a hider, a cop, a doc, and a one-shot vig are all in play. Convenient that your hider has NO results except Wickedest, and convenient that Wickedest is the first one pushing hider as the likely "true" role over the doc. It's gotta be fitz / Wickedest and I'm going to have a hell of a time convincing people of that, aren't I.

[massive]

The thing about hider is that it's NOT a crap PR. It's an investigative role if you crumb it right, because if you hide with scum, you die. So you crumb your night choice and if you turn up dead, VOILA, your crumbs become obvious and we catch scum.

unvote

It IS a defensive post because Wicked's play over the last couple of days has really pushed him back to suspicious to me, and obviously there's no way you survived hiding with him if he's scum. So either you're both scum or you're both town. (Well, I guess, it's possible JUST fitz is scum, but it doesn't forgive Wicked's play.)

But in any event, it's no time to be hasty.

[massive]

For anyone doing setup spec, don't forget to include the Mafia roleblocker.

[massive]

Dare I even ask, why Aristo?

[massive]

I'm back in front of an actual computer (instead of sunk into my couch on my laptop) so I have high hopes of re-reading portions of this today and figuring it out. I think it's solvable.

[massive]

my attack is perfectly valid and you haven't defended it.

My defense is this: If I'm not the doctor, you have no explanation for no kill on N3 that doesn't involve wacky "scum skipped a kill" speculation.

The argument from my end was and ALWAYS was "I have never hammered a scum buddy." It follows logically since my argument at the very start of D4 was "there's no amount of towncred that replaces a scum buddy." You did a very nice job of hunting up a game from, what, 2004?, that showed I could hammer a scum buddy. Shouting "LIES" at a failed memory from 10+ years ago is a little extreme, but since it's the ONLY thing you have, you gotta run with it.

And this:

Ridiculous. You have no reason to suspect me.

Why wouldn't I? You're obviously working very hard to shoehorn a case onto me that you yourself claimed started due solely to POE. You're patently ignoring the rest of the town, despite the fact that even if I AM scum, there's still another scum out there that you've already mentally cleared.

You aren't trying to solve the game any more.

------

I'm not signing up for any harebrained night action scheme. They have a roleblocker.

[massive]

My re-read notes, such as they are:

899 - Kop is town?

906 - yeah Kop is town.

913 - surprising how much of fitz's case against random is actually him soft-defending vikingfan.

922 - more evidence towards Kop as town

985 - FF is town?

1021 - aristo soft-defends vikingfan

1063 - fitz starts counter to vikingfan

1092 - if fitz is actually a hider, how does he have no idea what might have happened N3? Isn't one of the obvious solutions "scum targetted him but he was hiding"? Oh right he didn't hide at all. And there is a reason to ask about Random's shot ... if he didn't believe Random was only one-shot.

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My current range, from scummiest to towniest:

fitz >>>>> fish > Aristophanes >>>>> wickedest >> Kop

[massive]

Scum have a roleblocker because Random's shot failed. That's as simple as it gets. Random is confirmed town and had no reason to lie about attempting to shoot vikingfan N2.

If I am scum, you have to explain the no-kill on N3. Neither wickedest nor fitz have done so.

Massive...what [is] the point of your post 1092 comments?

You know there are town roles in the game that can affect the nightkill -- you supposably have one yourself -- why was this not the first thing you considered? Why make a big long post wondering what

possibly

could have happened? Why is "scum intentionally no-killed" the first thing that comes to your mind?

[massive]

I believe it would be better if you announce who you hide behind. I have said why multiple times.

I see no reason to keep up with this agenda. You've already confirmed that there's a roleblocker involved, so how exactly is your scheme going to provide information? Assuming scum don't just kill me, they're going to block me, so what outcomes exactly are you looking for?

[massive]

D3 he was voteless for most of the day.  And while viking was gaining steam as the day's lynch, Aritso avoided the viking wagon and tried to work a Kop lynch.

I find this very interesting. Substitute "Random" for "Kop" in this statement and it's basically what YOU did. 919 soft-defense of viking in the form of an attack on Random. 961 soft-defense of viking in the form of an attack on Random. 1010 ask someone to unvote viking while you analyze him. 1042 which is basically a null read on viking. Someone already pointed out the level of effort in 1042 v. 1063. Why is this scummy in Aristophanes and not in you?

[massive]

Have you ever had a PR before and if so...have you ever breadcrumbed one?

I am not a fan of breadcrumbing. I especially don't like it for protective roles, who I think should do their best to fly under the radar. Investigative roles I can understand but I haven't had one since being back, and since inevitably someone will go back and look at games from 1996, I will only say I do not remember ever having breadcrumbed a role. (Except for Fezzig in Princess Bride Mafia, but that was required by the role.)

Why is Aristo hypothesizing of ways to utilize my hide a bad thing? Especially if a RB would not effect it? Especially if today's kill is a RB'er? If it makes no difference either way it could be for town cred or genuine misguided effort. If there is an actual way (or chance of) to benefit of it...why discourage that "agenda"?

Because it reads exactly like vikingfan trying to determine / force where Randomidget's shot was going N2?

- Why did I claim? I do not believe I was in danger.
- Why did I claim a claim that made little sense given other claims.
- Why wouldn't I have claimed to have hid behind someone N3 to account for a no kill.
- Why did I not hop on what appeared to be a certain viking wagon and try to grab some cred?

This is basically the only reason why I am not voting you. You were the last to claim, and a fake hider claim in the face of that makes zero sense. The ONLY reason you might do so is to clear Wickedest (as your only hide target), but most of us are townreading him in any event, so I'm not sure what that would gain you.

The idea of No Lynch is interesting. I'm not sure mathematically it stacks up, but it's gonna take another post for me to math it out.

[massive]

I am far more confident in Fish scum than in Kop scum. His record is scummier in this game and, though not the best play, busing is always possible. But we have to make a lynch and this is the one that is most likely to flip scum imho

Kop is town. See: counterwagon to vikingfan D3, first person to understand what happened N2 and put it in the game (899), first person to vote for vikingfan D3 (906).

[massive]

No Lynch maths:

.. if fitz announces his hide target:

.... if it's scum, fitz dies, they kill overnight, 2:2
.... if it's town, they kill the hider target (making two deaths), 2:2

.. if fitz doesn't announce his target:

.... if it's scum, fitz dies, they kill overnight, 2:2
.... if it's non-Wicked town, they kill me, 3:2 but you have your hider and two cleared townies, town win, so they won't do that
.... if it's non-Wicked town and they try and shoot the hide target, still 3:2 if they miss, 2:2 if they get it right

.. if fitz is lying:

.... tomorrow is 3:2 so no gain / no loss

It's totally dependent on fitz getting his night choice right and scum missing.

[massive]

I will apologize for calling it harebrained but it presumes that havingfitz is town (and never seemed like it considered the fact that scum have a roleblocker). I also don't think it's necessary for him to name his target, but I'm trying to think it through.

4:1 after today (we have to assume we lynch correct or all of it is moot)

... if fitz announces his target and it's town, scum kill the target, killing both of them, but it's 2:1 with Wicked conftown
... if fitz announces his target and it's scum, he dies, scum kill, but it's 2:1 with confscum

... if fitz doesn't announce and it's town, scum play roulette, best solution for them being the same as if he announced, worst 3:1 but lots of conftown
... if fitz doesn't announce and it's scum, he dies, scum kill, 2:1

... if fitz is lying, it's 3:1 tomorrow

Actually, it appears I just needed to read it and think it through. It's not harebrained at all. And if we hit the roleblocker in FF, it probably gets better.

[massive]

Scum COULD kill away from the guaranteed 2-for-1 just to keep suspicion on havingfitz, but then No Lynch tomorrow becomes a real problem for them.

[massive]

Wickedest

: why does the interaction by vikingfan on Kop make Kop scum, but the interaction by Kop on vikingfan (see my ISO for post numbers, am on phone) have no effect on your read of Kop?

[massive]

Mod: Request for extension on deadline for (a) Wickedest's VLA and (b) if you're really replacing Formerfish

[massive]

I want to vote Formerfish but I want to hear from Wickedest first.

[massive]

I doubt we will lynch you today, Kop. I feel very good in my townread of you based on 899. Scum have an opportunity early on D3 where they can railroad Randomidget for the failed vig shot; 899 pretty much blows that chance out of the water by outlining probably exactly what happened (which we only know now that Randomidget is confirmed town).

I think vikingfan bussed Kop and Kop bussed vikingfan. You're implying that those two ideas contradict each other, but they don't. I don't see why I can't believe both. This question makes no sense...

The problem is that it's more than simple bussing. Viking's vote at the end of D3 is a throwaway vote; if you want to meta and say "well he voted a scumbuddy in another game," then kudos, but there's no other indication anywhere in the game that Vikingfan and Kelbris / Kop were buddies. Kop's posts, on the other hand, at the beginning of D3 read like legitimate scumhunting.

If you want me to vote Kop, you're going to have to convince me that scum roleblocked Randomidget N2 and then decided that scum theater between Vikingfan and Kop was the play D3; and NOT to try and mislynch Randomidget.

[massive]

You are far more likely to find scum in massive, fitz or Formerfish.

Talk to me about your Aristophanes townread.

[massive]

I have a feeling that Aristophanes is town , it looks like he is genuinely looking for scum.

Can you give me even a small sampling of his posts that look this way to you? Because this sounds like "gut" and I really am hating "gut" as a reason this game.

[massive]

OK. If havingfitz's hider claim is a gambit, then he deserves to win. He slid his result in so smoothly D2 and you can tell that he is trying to express something to me (look at 532) and trying to build a town block. I just don't think that's faked. So that means, for me, fitz is town, Wicked is town. So now it's time to go back and look at Kop / Aristophanes / Formerfish and see if I can pair any of them up.

[massive]

Does Aristophanes put forth the plan that he proposed as scum? I think he only does that if he's OK losing his scum buddy and feels he can be left alive in 2:1 with a shot of winning. This is a scenario that CAN happen, but not if fitz hides behind Aristophanes instead of Kop.

[massive]

vote Formerfish

[massive]

If you want someone with massive bias, you should review Formerfish's buddying of me.

No comment on my fitz read?

[massive]

I kinda wish I WAS scum this game because I would be a mastermind at this game.

[massive]

I'm more confident in Formerfish. I also think it's more likely that, given a scum team of Formerfish / Kop, that Formerfish is the more likely to be the roleblocker. But I'm not sold on that pairing.

[massive]

Not gonna bite. If fitz is town, then you're town. You think I'm scum, then lynch me.

[massive]

I think part of this is on me, I expected my doc claim to hold a lot more sway than it did (somehow) and thought it would be enough to conftown myself. Instead of bullying Wickedest to re-read, I should have been working to change his mind. I don't know that I could have voted fitz in the end, though, although Aristo's plan to out him made sense.