Mini 1687: Refraction Mafia (WINNER!)

[Bellaphant]

Hi All,

I've skim-read, any key points? Not sure what to make of Frog v Plot and Zor/Thor/Math...Zor isn't giving me town vibes by locking in on this (it's more...usual for Thor, I guess) and I'm not feeling obv-town about Plot like I usually do, and her reads-list is bit off, but the self-analysis post is better.

Lapsa, and Abuse to a certain extent, make me go o.0

Does anyone have any strong feelings on Tex/Tool that they want to share?

UNVOTE: math for now.

[Bellaphant]

Oh yay, Thor slightly scum-reads my slot. But that reads-list actually makes me feel better about the slot.

[Bellaphant]

Hey Zor: I'm mostly caught up, what can I do for you? I work better one-on-one, so if you want content, engaging is prolly the best way to do it. I see you are voting my slot, but it's not entirely clear why I'm your biggest scum-read. While you are here, what do you think of the bbt/thor sniping that's going on?

[Bellaphant]

Sure:

Pages 1-5

Frog's entrance is nothing surprising, maths' and tool's (esp. Tool's) response to it it terrible. Thor's entrance is towny, Plot is less so. Texcat nearly makes a good post in 52. Math's jump on it is, again, opportunistic. Shinobi's distancing from Plot is pinging. Abuse looks better on a second read-through. Lapsa's gambit is totally null. Zor looks scummy. 109 is terribad. Shinobi lacks content.

6-10

Ugh, lapsa's voting. Leaning on the Thor side of Thor/Math/Zor. What do people think of 151? 158 is a bit townier.

160 seems a bit more like town-plot, but, eh.
188 is an ok entrance. Shares a few of my early pings.
189 from my predecessor is good.
The Thor/Zor thing is still bad: I'd town-read Thor for it, but I'm not sure either of them is invested in progressing the game.
225 is way better from math, and his towniest post.
Abuse is prolly town.

11-20 (speeding up, got to sleep soon!)
Shinobi's responses around Plot still read forced.
I don't get all these town-reads on texcat.
Frog is town
284/5 is bad, Zor is correct.
I don't know what to make of tool's posting here. I don't agree with him, but I can see the towny motivation.
CB starts looking townier.
Lapsa still isn't towning it up and I don't get some of these unvotes. The posts he makes look like effort, but, nah.
I don't like plot's reads list
450 is good, shows someone trying to work things out.
frog/plot's interactions are really weird. Not feeling town-plot at all here. I need to think more about 516. Others' thoughts on that post?
476 is way late for a naked vote, even though I like the target.

21+
524 made me smile. Irrelevant, I know.
Pls, pls, if Zor and Thor are town, stop the wall-tunnel. Like, this has mostly been circular and it's really off-putting. Math's original vote was bad (as was tool's) and continued engagement isn't helping the game.
@BBT, what's wrong with 563
@Frog, why that vote on Thor?
Lapsa's wagon switches are weird. Good way to avoid VCA?
I don't think Zor is doing what CB thinks he is doing.

Ok, so:
Prolly town: Frog, Thor, Abuse, CB, BBT

Scum-leaning: Plot, Zor, Math, Lapsa

My reads on tex/tool are really null. Tex is townier than tool right now.

p-edit, Zor is distancing himself from his Plot read. Zor, have you read any of her games? (There's a recent one with me, BBT and Plot that might be good)
pp-edit: Thor.

[Bellaphant]

Hi Plot: I find it weird that over the space of two posts you've said...nothing, actually, about my reads list? Apart from vaguely throw some shade on it. Is there anything you disagree with/want to talk about from my catch up? Also, you keep saying the same thing about Thor and it makes me go o.0

@bbt, why is Zor townie? I'm not feeling it.

@Zor: why is announcing that you are too lazy to read not terrible? It doesn't show you want to progress the game. Also, what you said about Plot in this post is just untrue, as post 52 by Tex asks exactly this.

Also, just realised I forgot Shinobi in my reads list.@ Shinobi, talk to me about where your head is at right now? Top town and top scum?

Frog's defense points have made me stop and think again about Thor. I might re-read in ISO.

[Bellaphant]

@Plot, yeah, maybe we should chat.

I guess the 'dropping it until I know what my deal is' feels fake, like you are queuing up something in advance. Can you understand that? (Genuine question)

Okay, so:
(Actually, your lasts reads list was AGES ago, so I don't know what's changed for you.) But,

Abuse: I think he's doing some interesting things, especially early game, that seem to be genuine questions. His page 10 was pretty good and although some of the engagement has dropped off, I like the way he's prodding a bunch of different players.
CB: My town-read of him was pretty strong early game, I like the push on Zor. His recent interaction with you/Zor about reads is funky, though.
Zor: Maybe I'm tunneling, but in my catch up post I've made this pretty clear.
Math: his early game was really, really scummy. He sheeped BBT over something odd. This might be more associative, but the slot isn't giving me town-feels.
BBT: post 450 was good, he's doing similar to abuse in that he's interacting with a bunch of different players, looks like he's figuring out. His meta statement on you is odd, esp as his read on you isn't clear.
Thor: I don't know. I was pretty clear, but like I said, Frog's point made me think and now my next task is to re-read in Iso.

You?

Talk to me about the tex/tool/shinobi trio as well? (Difficult to sort. Tex prolly most town)

[Bellaphant]

@Zor, that's actually helpful: I thought it was her comments after this that were problematic to you. Your read of events seems less logical, but the way you've explained it makes sense. What I read was 'I'm gonna talk about Frogger' 'Why?' 'Because...' and the you calling the 'because' the statement of responsibility. But, apparently not.

[Bellaphant]

@Frog, that's kinda where I am too.

[Bellaphant]

@Shinobi, I meant out of the three of you. You are currently smack-bang as null, and tool is the scummier end. Interesting you'd picked up on that too. As for Tex, I like the questions she's asking. I agree (p-edit) with Shinobi that there's not a huge amount there, but that's also the case for...Shinobi right now Tool's posts are giving me bad 'gut-vibes', though.

The plot/Frog push on Thor...:S

[Bellaphant]

Shinobi, what's not towny about it?
I can see you have an issue with it, I can't see what/why?

[Bellaphant]

@Shin: again, what is bad about texcat's posting? Other than a lack of activity? You keep saying the same thing, but I don't actually know what the issue is.

[Bellaphant]

@ Zor, why are you reading Plot as town is probably the better question. BBT, can you talk to me about plot as well?

Also, Zor, I've responded to your points, stop trying to paint me as engaged.

@BBT, with Zor, I have trouble seeing a lot of townie motivation for a bunch of his posts. The post I had initial problems with he's explained, but I don't like his justification of a vote on me for shitty reasons. I checked the thread earlier (poured Lager on my laptop -

dyspraxic, not drunk

and was about the spread of voting on the wagons.

Tool has an actual lack of engagement, they are scum-reading someone who is my top town read for really reachey reasons (they mostly seem to be: Frog adapts his thoughts to consensus/challenge, but won't commit to these thoughts being prompted by any specific scum...ugh) - the fact that this was also his 'rvs' push is ringing alarm bells. 403 is really weird list of people to look into, if he wants to progress the game. His read on Thor is wishy-washy as well.


Frog/Plot/Thor: What do you mean you 'don't see Plot pushing' Thor? She's

voting for him

. It comes right after Frog mentions a concern about Thor defending him and Plot. Plot seems to jump on this, then add the point about Thor 'drawing people in' to his arguments. I think Thor is probably town, re-reading, but his meta is difficult and he is hard to read. Frog's point looks genuine, Plot's less so: I think she's scum.

I'm happy to lynch tool/plot/zor. I'd compromise on math/lapsa.

[Bellaphant]

I thought it was pretty lame to whinge about vanity wagons and start/reinforce one. Whatever. We've got four days, though.

VOTE: Plot. She's normally way easy to town-read than this.

[Bellaphant]

What? Why? 'Coz you think they are town? Or 'coz you think someone is more scummy. I'm not sheeping a push on Thor today. Go and read the posts around her vote on Thor, and come back to me if you really can't see why my scum-bells are ringing.

[Bellaphant]

I'm thinking I can't convince people on my read in time, which sucks, and BBT is right: we don't wanna run up a PR close to deadline.

The Cliff-notes version is:
The tunnel on frog, and the weird aTe going on with it early game. Statements like 31 are just...ugh. We've discussed her backing away from it straight away 48
439 is just a really odd reads list. None of the people in her scum-pile make sense to me. I don't know where the read on tex came from: she'd literally mentioned her twice before this and none of it was engagement/sorting. Also, literally the next she mentions Tex is to say she's 'gone up a bit', but no more content about tex. We don't get another mention 'til 590, where this is kinda explained.
516 This is the post that messes with my head. It looks, on the surface, like a ton of work, and really town-motivated. But a lot of it, as well as being a push on Frog, is a really weird defense of her play, like 'early game Plotinus is passive Plotinus. You tack those “especially for Plotinus” words onto that sentence like you’re declaring with authority that I’m not a cautious player. It is true that I have been growing less cautious over time as I gain confidence in my playstyle but it is not true that you have not seen cautious townPlotinus before.' A lot is also meta, or theory,

(for example)

Spoiler:

'And this is another point that I passed off as a newbslip.
1) OMGUS is not a scumtell. town does it just as much as scum does and a lot of the time people do it jokingly or tongue-in-cheekedly.
2) it wasn’t OMGUS. I had real things that were concerning me about CB’s post and I explained them.
3) Everybody’s read on CB was based on one post because he had only one post at the time. Sheesh. BBT had a townread on him for that one post. And it wasn’t a fluff post, it was a wall with opinions on the gamestate that touched on a lot of things. '

so, is it really scum-hunting?

632/634 seem like coaching. I'm trying not to look for associative though.

692 This vote. God, this vote. Plot has mentioned Thor 10 times by the time she votes, and

4

of them are in this post. 2 of the other were 'I need to look at his ISO'. Frog had literally just voted, and this seems really opportunistic. When challenged, she says it's been 'building for a few days', but...nope.

Okay, that was longer than I thought.
It's also a gut thing. I can't follow her thoughts. There's a lot of words there, but the thoughts aren't clear/don't have a natural progression. Plot normally towns it up, and I shouldn't be finding it this difficult to understand her.

I would like to hear others' thoughts, but could also vote Zor. What's weirded me out is that Plot suggested I should.

[Bellaphant]

Laspa, did you just scum-read yourself?!

[Bellaphant]

@Thor, that's kinda fair. I find day two easier, more information to work with.

@bbt, maybe if you stopped walling with Thor you'd see them. I find it ironic (and wierd) that you are arguing with him in circles about not engaging other people

@frog, think you are right about tool. II plot isn't the lynch for today (even though some people are at least sharing my concerns) I'm happy to lynch zor or tool today. Tool especially

VOTE: tool

[Bellaphant]

CB, my reasons are mostly 786 but it's probably more helpful to read Frog's case, and their back and forth in the last few pages. His case on Frog is terribad.

Currently, your vote is useless (this applies to Lapsa, pers and Zor,). Deadline is gonna come overnight tomorrow for a few of us, so we've only got today to consolidate.

Hi Pers! Can you link me to the game Frog mentioned? I've only seen your scum!play

[Bellaphant]

Hey Pers,

Yeah, that was me and BBT (also in this game) in that game. I'm interested in the Zor's answer, though. Link when you've caught up, pls.

[Bellaphant]

Yeah, that one. You're town this time, though, right?

Hahha, I'm reading your second town game as an example of a scum-game from someone in another ongoing. Ace.

[Bellaphant]

Interested in this: math was an early scum read, but in the Zor/Math/Thor I ended up way more focused on Zor. Also, tool's reconsideration of Frog makes me wonder...

Tool, why Thor? Does Pers' vote make you think differently?

BBT, thoughts on Shinobi? Also, are you town-reading Tex?

[Bellaphant]

@BBT, I can see you are 'unsure' and some of his posts are alignment indicative, and I can infer a negative reaction to him agreeing with things (which may or may not be indicative) and you didn't like his tex push. But it seems a little fence sitty to me, hence me prodding at it. The tex one I'll give you, that was stupid of me.

Also, I disagree with 'looking busy'. I've stated reads, I've questions to develop these, I've interacted with players I'm not sure of, like Shinobi. Part of your push on me feels like you are frustrated me/more people aren't sheeping you on your Thor case.

While you are here, talk to me about your read on Plot? It seems quite flipfloppy, and I'd like to understand that.

[Bellaphant]

@BBT, I'm having trouble with the Thor wagon for similar reasons as Frog. I didn't like his comparison of the tool/his wagon, though.

@Frog, tex, how sure of the math/pers read are you?

[Bellaphant]

@BBT, so you can understand why I asked about Shin, then.

For Pers, I asked because I've only had 1 on 1 experience of the slot as scum, and I'm reading the game he linked to and he seems a lot more aggressive in it. But, the sudden jump on, from tex especially, makes me nervous.

In terms of Thor, I'll admit he's been the slot I've read/reread the most this game. Someone, it might even have been Plot, said there were a lot of words there to work through! My town-read of him mainly comes from the push on Zor, who is a scum-read, and the fact that he's being quite blatant about things when challenged by you. Like, when you said he was focused on others, he replied that of course he was focused on his scum-reads, so why not? I feel like I should be taking more from your and his conversation. His read on you seems to have evolved naturally too. I know you tunnel, though. Maybe you can give me the bullet-pointed case?

[Bellaphant]

Hey Plot,

OOG Shit: Mod, lemme know if you wanna move this to a pm, or whatever.

Spoiler:

I was talking about your response to Frog, not any 'lifesuck': I actually don't think you've really expanded much on that in here, and I haven't read your posts in the sad-thread. I don't know whether that would make what you are feeling worse or better right now, so I'll leave that to you. I'm a little upset that you'd assume I'm the sort of person to deliberately use whatever is there against someone in a game: that's really shitty behaviour whatever alignment. However, if it upset you, then I can only be sorry.

[Bellaphant]

Plot, you should talk more. I'm wondering if some of my issues with your read are 'other things'. Let me have a look at your list in more depth (obviously I've not checked every interaction, but a couple from each to make sure Plot isn't just lying).

So, looking at Plot's list in summary:
I'm also gonna compare with Thor's first interaction, to see if the early interactions are that consistent.

Abuse: -1, =6, +4 (towny null?) (first interaction -) (latest interaction = null)
BBT:-20, =12, +1 and ?7 (this is very odd) (first interaction =/null) (last interaction -)
cb: -0, =9, +2 (towny null?) (first interaction =/null) (last interaction = null)
bella: -5, =2, +1 (scummy null?) (first interaction -) (last interaction -)
Frog: -0, =20, +12 (town) (first interaction = null) (last interaction =)
lapsa: -2, =22, +2 (really null?) (first interaction +) (last interaction =)
Pers: -39!, =6, +2 (so scum) (first interaction -) (last interaction -)
Plot: -2, =8, 10 (null-town) (first interaction +) (last interaction +)
shin: -0, =6, +1 (super null) (first interaction null =) (last interaction =)
tex: -0, =5, +1 (super null) (first interaction +) (last interaction =)
tool: -3, =13, +5 (nullish) (first interaction -1) (last interaction +)
zor: -39, =11, +0 (super scum) (first interaction =) (last interaction =)


What's interesting to me is the reads with more = signs, especially when they don't really make sense, like lapsa. The BBT interactions are really inconsistant, one of the few that is. Plot's idea about early interactions seems to bear out over all when you look at the changes over time: only tool's interactions actually change. That's really strange.

[Bellaphant]

@tool, it's a conclusion in parts to plot's list. I would've made a table, but I can't work out how ( I've seen other people do them - it also took me moths to work out how to do combined isos, I fail at tech). Plot gave a lot of data, but I wanted to take it a step further and do a bit of analysis, cos Thor is the read I'm getting asking about a lot/ prolly spending the most time on.

Going back to a question someone asked earlier (maybe pers?) initially, thor's reads list was reassuring, aa I couldn't get a handle on his thoughts. I should compare thay post with mine /plots post and see if they match up, when it's not midnight and phone posting

[Bellaphant]

@Pers,

Gonna look at some of Frog's other games to see if what you said about scum going after him bears out. To me, it seemed Tool's push on Frog was defensive and reactionary, so that added to the scum-read. The breakdown post about his wagon is interesting too.

p-edit@ Shin, I've explained what the list was for, and so has Plot. It mayn't have helped you, but it generated discussion with Plot about a slot I was unsure of. Her basic conclusions carried over to a bit of deeper analysis, and suddenly I understood her initial vote (which, remember, was one of my reasons for scum-reading her as the hop-on after Frog looked scummy) a lot more.

[Bellaphant]

@Plot, you mean Pers/math? It hasn't passed me by that the other two slots involved are voting me!!

@Pers, I just checked the three/four most recent games, and yeah, Frogger shot night 2 (if he lives to day three now...).

Re-reading Tool's wagon post, and Shin was voting Plot (his second vote after RVS) for over 600 posts. o.0

UNVOTE:

I think I was wrong about Plot.

We can't no lynch. Zor isn't the lynch for today.

VOTE: Thor

p-edit, Frog, does the night kill/scum-read thing make you feel differently about tool?

[Bellaphant]

@frog, thanks, with the two posts at the same time I thought it was l-3.

[Bellaphant]

UNVOTE:

Hmmm,

VOTE: Pers
BBT's points about their reaction to Thor lynch seem valid.

[Bellaphant]

Think that's l-3, Frog wants me to announce these things!

[Bellaphant]

@Thor, it seems to me that a few people have had a similar lynch 'pool' for a while: you/Tool/Pers, with me/Zor/Shin as back-ups. That explains the wagon support shifting a lot. Also, why Titus?

[Bellaphant]

@ Thor, I did, but Titus's push on you was really 'only plausible vote for a lynch', 'short cases on...' and 'Thor should claim'. She even restates that she's not really pushing in 1266. So your reaction seemed odd, hence the question. I'm happy to lynch Zor, but most people seem to be townreading him.

p-edit, a ton of stuff. coming back

[Bellaphant]

@ Shin, I don't get 1327 Plot is talking about Pers in the quote, as far as I'm aware, but who are you talking about?

[Bellaphant]

Lapsa, I'm inferring a meaning from that, but can you actually use your words?

[Bellaphant]

Yeah, Plot over Titus. I also don't like how Titus throws out info about fakeclaims in 1278 and the brings out something that's countered by Plot.

[Bellaphant]

Plot, I'm also an idiot and missed your crumbs. I find them way harder as town.

titus' lynch list is scummy: Shin (I could still lynch this) Plot (town) and Frog (most likely town).

Have we had an unofficial VCA? Would my vote be l-1?

[Bellaphant]

VOTE: Titus

l-2 then.

p-edit, l-1? I don't get the fake claim/drawing out Plot's crumbs at all, esp. as other people'd missed them.

[Bellaphant]

@Titus, you seem to believe/not believe Plot's claim at the same time. Can you clarify?

[Bellaphant]

@ frog, how so? I mean, it's nice you are now voting for a scum read of mine, but I'm interested in that.

I've never seen anyone go straight to the assumption of ' werewolf' in a game like this. Add that to pers' behaviour before the lynch... Hmm...

[Bellaphant]

@ pers, like tere said it seems unlikely, and I hadn't seen it before, hence my initial reaction to you mentioning it - you seemed pretty confident in it as a possibility. What you've said abiut the preview post wss interesting, though, and I'll come back to you when I'm not phone posting.

@ tere, talk to me about tex?

[Bellaphant]

EBWOP - tool's post makes sense, I though 'infra red' was just a light type, but it could be a scum type. I also agree that very few people would've killed bbt as they were scum reading him - ia it just anti town, or could it have been the other faction who did think he was scum?

[Bellaphant]

So actually, if there are two scum factions then I have absolutely no problem voting Shinobi. See analysis above, as well as posts from yesterday. I'll try to consolidate my points on him later.

VOTE: Shinobi

I could get behind this. @tool, Also, I seem to be coming out as a frustrating spot for you - now we've got a bit more info, have you got any questions for me?

I haven't been playing here that long but I've read a fair few 10:3s and 10:3:1s but not seen a 9:2:2 yet, that's all.


@Bella, I am worrying tex is skating a bit, and I am misliking that BBT has nothing bad to say about her when she was def middle of the pack for me reading through. That's why she's moved down to my would consider lynching pile.

I haven't even read Plot's read thing behind the spoilers yet because I am assuming OMG numbers.

Hmmm, yeah. Her, Shin and Tool were all middle of the pack reads for me - tool has moved up quite a bit, and Shin down, but a straight town-read of tex seems odd.

Tere, did you shoot BBT?

Also, whee I get to be conf town.

How? I re-read everything this day, and no, you don't.

I'm trying to sort through what BBT's flip tells me about Bella. He listed her as maybe scum but ignored all pushes on her, and kept trying to get me to vote Thor instead.
That's normally how I defend my scumbros when I roll mafia. "Yeah, X is scummy, but Y is scummier!" and there's always another Y. I look good if X ever dies, X looks good if I die, but I never have to actually help get rid of them. Probably best to pull the BBT-factor out and just consider actions in vacuum.

Her scum lists look bad in light of the flips. Most of her cases and votes were on townies / people that in light of flip are highly likely to be not-mafia-with-bbt: Plot, Thor, Lapsa, Abuse / Titus, me. Still thinking through her Pers read. Pers' behavior today is throwing me a bit even though I had a really towny read on Dino earlier. But BBT was trying to undermine my town read on Pers late in the day, so I'm going around in circles on that one.

Seriously? The first point I could maybe give you, but my biggest pushes yesterday were 1) you, 2) Plot, which I clearly said I was wrong about. I started to go over Thor's posting when my read on Plot changed and I voted Titus BECAUSE SHE FAKE CLAIMED, over the claim of Plot, who I town-read. So, you are not only wrong, you are pushing me as scum because I had bad scum-reads? Please.

Suffice it to say that I'm comfortable that frogger isn't mafia/werewolf, but I haven't ruled him out as SK.

This isn't just a read.

Cool, then can you explain how you are 'comfortable' with the first, but not the second? I might be being thick, set-up spec is not my thing.

299 posts - double the next highest - doesn't seem like apathy to me.

Regarding SK, I'm thinking we may not have one. A likely SK setup would be 9-3-1. It seems unlikely we could have 2 mafia factions AND a SK. But, BBT's role said Infrared, which apparently isn't a power. If it's not a power, it could be there to distinguish it from another mafia faction with a different name. But, if it were one mafia faction and an SK, there would be no need for the mafia faction to have a name.

Pers, how does this go with the post above? I can't work out your interaction with Frog if you this second post.

My 'would lynch' pile has gone up. Bad times. Frog, can you talk to me about yours?

[Bellaphant]

Teres post is good. Pers, you never answered why you picked frogger.

I'm pretty sure Thor is implying he didnt use his shots / targets last night.

[Bellaphant]

Okay, I hadn't seen that - when he voted and said it wasn't a result, it made me think he was x shot or something. If he tells us who he targeted I'd be asking the same questions - if I'm not happy with his answers you'll know.

My read on you is really conflicted, pers, hence the questions. You replaced into a scummy slot and some of your posts ring my alarm bells, but I've read some of your meta and I'm none the wiser.

[Bellaphant]

Better question - why is Zor voting me? I've yet to really see a case that wasn't terribad, and it's getting dull.

Zor, if you are town, can you please actually scum-hunt? This looks like a vote-park.

(You know who else vote-parked on town yesterday and is pinging my scum-dar? Shin.)

[Bellaphant]

Ultraviolet and Infrared mafia perhaps? Would fit the theme perfectly, both colours not visible to the naked eye blah blah.

I thought the same thing, but I figured if I said it and someone did flip UV, I'd get lynched. Glad you said it first.

Good analysis. I don't care for Thor and so that's influencing my read. Since others are believing him, I'll trust their judgment for now.

VOTE: Shinobi

First off, I have many mixed feelings about this post! I'd love to believe your claim, but your reasons for picking Frog I just don't understand, and comments like 'if I said it and someone did flip UV, I'd get lynched' give me so many scum-feels: self consciousness, self preservation...but then your second comment is better, and you are scum-reading a scum read of mine. Maybe we should talk more - have you got any questions for me?

I'm not really sure, honestly.
My first instinct was that Thor was lying about being a cop and was actually a Vig and had shot BBT. But he's pretty adamant about cop, so, probably not the case.
If we're playing Multiball, I don't have a good sort on the situation. Bella is probably scum with BBT, and if so then the flip / NK situation should tell us multi-ball vs SK.

BBT being scum flipped my game view on its head. I can't fathom CB being on his team, and that was the lynch pin for the rest of my reads.

I think multi-ball makes more sense, here, and the other-scum team were trying to hit town - I can't think of why an SK/vig would shoot BBT (apart from Thor), as he seemed pretty town-read yesterday. It's more logical, I feel, and also makes sense if we have more than one 'investigative' type PR. CB could well be on a different team, so I'm not sure why your reads are in such disarray right now? Also, 'so and so flipping scum, so now I know nothing about the game' is a tactic I've had scum-partners do before.

everything makes sense!

Does it? Since you are the closest thing we have to conf-town, could you maybe give us a reads-list or something? I can't follow your vote progression.

@Tere, your reads-list makes sense - I think my issue with Pers might be a style one? I know I've burnt some meta with you, so if you wanna ask me about anything, please do!

[Bellaphant]

Pers, neither. I read the game of yours and Frog's where you owned the scum-team, so that makes sense. If we're pretty sure it's multi, then that makes Frog basically conf-town. From how you worded my question, I assume you agree we aren't looking for an SK?

@Tere, yeah, Frog was intense there. Bit of an odd reference, though?

[Bellaphant]

I just wasn't sure how the odd/even cop thing fitted. Maybe I'm being slow, though.

[Bellaphant]

Yeah, I can't read tonight, missed the word 'role'. Sorry!

[Bellaphant]

@ Tex - Tere's is pretty good, but if you look at Tool's two wagon analysis posts, they are quite convincing as well! I'll have a better look at my notes if you want?

[Bellaphant]

Shin, I was being slightly flippant (interesting you didn't go after Thor's answer, which was much in the same vein...)

I also feel that tool responded really well to the slight heat he was getting day 1, wheras you...haven't.

[Bellaphant]

Guys, I was being flippant. I was amused by Thor's page-top. Maybe I needed a ' '

[Bellaphant]

@Thor, regarding your list of three - because of claims and results, if you believe Pers is town, Frog has to be town (weird fake results aside or Frog is scum/anti town in a way that Pers' target couldn't account for.) If you believe Frog is town, Pers could be scum OR town, faking his result. If you believe Frog is scum, Pers has to be scum, as town Pers wouldn't clear scum!Frog (weird conditions aside) Right?

Can you explain your Tere read some more, as I'm not really understanding this '1/3' thing, when two of them are linked.

[Bellaphant]

@Thor, regarding your list of three - because of claims and results, if you believe Pers is town, Frog has to be town (weird fake results aside or Frog is scum/anti town in a way that Pers' target couldn't account for.) If you believe Frog is town, Pers could be scum OR town, faking his result. If you believe Frog is scum, Pers has to be scum, as town Pers wouldn't clear scum!Frog (weird conditions aside) Right?

Yes - that would be why I indicated support of a Tere lynch.

I'm gonna assume sarcasm here, but sometimes it helps to ask obvious questions. Thanks, though.

Can you explain your Tere read some more, as I'm not really understanding this '1/3' thing, when two of them are linked.

Two of them were not linked at the point the attack happened.
The attack was really dumb and was an attack on a town PR.
Scum love the chance to attack a town PR - so I presume that a scum would take the opportunity to do so.

Right, but you re-iterated it afterwards, hence why I asked. I agree the Tere slot looks the worse for it.

VOTE: Shinobi

This is scum.

This is terrible, to replace in and resume a scum-read without a case. I could vote this.

If you're happy voting Shinobi then lynch Shinobi with me.

By the selfsame logic I should vote Tere - and I actually probably agree with the case on him more than Shinobi.
I'll wait till one gets bigger or support for wagons notices that we have two confirmed town sitting on Zoronos and puzzles out what that means.

Why wait 'til one gets bigger support?

Do you think it's confirmed multiball? And if so, what do you think that means.
If by two scum teams - I do not find that particularly to be taken for granted, myself.
Do you know something I don't?

This is good stuff Thor

Well, it kind of is, but I think the two teams is a safe assumption, at least 'til we get some more flips/ another NK. I think it means looking for associatives is difficult before another flip, and it's harder to clear those 'unconfed' slots.

[Bellaphant]

Sure. You seem to have quite a few scum-reads, so yeah.

[Bellaphant]

@Rc, are you reading up? Can you let us know your thoughts, on not Thor/Shin?

[Bellaphant]

So, Frog, and by extension, Tex, are conf-town, yeah? Sensible thing to do is to lynch between me, shin, zor, tool. Worried about the one-kill: can't see two teams, if multiball, both going for Pers over the other claimed cop. With the amount of town-Prs I wouldn't think we had a doc.

Thor's post suggests maybe he was role-blocked?

Thoughts?

[Bellaphant]

@Thor, but why not you? Not being funny, but it would've made sense.
And I doubt 1 team/sk whiffed, as Aero's 'I'm opening the thread early' post suggests not.

Out of the the four of us, Zor/Shin works for me, but I'm still down a scum-read, if we are assuming multi-scum-teams. I take it you are signed up to the multi scum idea?

pp-edit, you said some of this before I posted, sorry.

[Bellaphant]

Frog, you vote an awful lot.

Why Shinobi, specifically? That seems really reactionary, and tbf wondering about masons and neighbours in the same game, when we've only had piece of info on scum-flips, isn't terrible.

[Bellaphant]

Actually, Frog, this happened in my last game as scum - the neighbours thought they were town-conf masons until lylo, when one of them suddenly went...o.0 wait...

[Bellaphant]

Btw, I almost forgot:

@Thor, but why not you? Not being funny, but it would've made sense.
And I doubt 1 team/sk whiffed, as Aero's 'I'm opening the thread early' post suggests not.

Out of the the four of us, Zor/Shin works for me, but I'm still down a scum-read, if we are assuming multi-scum-teams. I take it you are signed up to the multi scum idea?

pp-edit, you said some of this before I posted, sorry.

How exactly did this read change? How are you scumreading Zoronos and when did that happen? iirc you had a scumread on me yesterday which you dropped (because idk why) and then opted to go for an RC/Tere lynch. I don't recall you saying anything about Zoronos at all.

So, you've never been a town-read for me. I wavered on it when RC came it with the exact same read as Tere, 'coz that didn't make sense to me, but they were clearly getting the same vibe I've been. With you, if Thor is lying, then you are probably town. If he's telling the truth, and lapsa is cleared, then it's you/me/zor/tool. Tool is actively working to figure out the game (although I'd prefer some conclusions from 1974) and I'm town.

I've been scum-reading Zor since...my 3rd post? The fact he's vote-parked on me for most days, making VCA a complete wash-out isn't helping and has also got him out of some scum-hunting.

Actually,

VOTE: Zor

[Bellaphant]

Shin doesn't seem to understand POE either. I'll address Zor's points in the morning, but Frog is right.

VOTE: Shin

It's bed-time for me. Can we not flash-wagon over night, think this is mylo.

[Bellaphant]

@ Frog (and maybe Tex?)

My tex-read is easy. She was in the middle for me to start, has made towny-looking posts but not enough of them. I re-read overnight, and taking the masons out of it, I don't think she's been actively pushing an agenda as she would as scum. With the masons - this doesn't feel like your scum game, so if you are telling the truth, which I don't doubt, she is town. Town.

Thor is...harder, but it's because of his lapsa clear. If we think it's multi-ball, then we're looking for three more scum, and I'm left with: Shin, zor and...? Tool doesn't feel right for me, and I know it's not me. Tool could just be methodical scum. His interactions with Thor are occasionally terrible.

Thor's being definite, and I find his frustration town-y. My own experience of Thor is based on my first ever game, but I'm not getting the same vibes as I was from scum!Thor. Town, though.

@Tool - I've asked you the same question as Zor, can you explain your thoughts?
p-edit, on it, Shin.

[Bellaphant]

Actually, I was wrong. Bella never actually voted RC, she just soft pushed the slot. Let's just walk through this.
1621 Bella is down with a Shinobi vote.
1681 Teres' post is good. (That would seem to indicate a (not-scum) read. Maybe neutral, maybe town, Bella's not really clear. But not scum)
1764 Teres' reads list makes sense.
1776 Bella thinks that Teres' case on Shinobi is good.

1793 Bella throws shade on Shinobi. (This will matter later)

1921 Here is where everything goes wrong. The basis of Bella's scum read is, quote, "This is terrible, to replace in and resume a scum-read without a case. I could vote this." This is at the point where Teres / RC have 4 votes; Tex / Frogger / Shinobi / Thor.
If RC is in Teres' slot, then RC has the same alignment as Teres. If the case was good on Shinobi up until this point, why does a slot she was reading as not-scum, voting a case she thinks is good, suddenly make that 'terrible'? RC's PM didn't change. Shinobi didn't change. If the case on Shinobi is good (per her own words), why is it scummy for RC to continue that case? Shinobi, her previous scum read, was already on that train.

That's the soft-push. Bella's vote wasn't on RC, but 4 other votes were. (Frogger, Tex, Thor, Shinobi). It's opportunistic scum play. She turns on her town read, who is pushing the case that she agreed with a moment ago, for a non-alignment-indicating reason.

Firstly, I hate how Zor decides I voted RC without bothering to check. This is prolly mylo and that kind of blase-ness is gross. It's not even that it's a mis-rep, it's just lazy and not town-motivated. It also allowed him to craft a narrative.

Ok, so all you've actually said here is that 1) I was scum-reading Shin (true, obviously). Tere's post about Frog really pinged my paranoia, seeing as we'd recently finished Frog's first scum-game, and I saw a lot of the same...confidence from him there, which made me unsure of my read on him. Claiming masons and knowing he's got his own private thread has clarified why I was getting the same sort of vibes.

2) I was also unsure about Pers for a while, and I openly stated that maybe it was a play-style thing after he'd started to post some good 'sorting the game' posts. That lynch line is still pretty good - it was 4 un-claimed. Also, if I was scum, why would I advocate a list that could've got me lynched?

3) I've talked about 1776. Thor's previous post amused me, I was joining in.

I have no idea what the issue with 1793 is

4) The RC thing. It looks like a knee-jerk reaction because it was. It really creeped me out that RC would replace in, not point to anything specific, and vote for the same read straight away and also voted for the claimed cop. I'm sorry that that set alarm bells ringing. You want to talk about opportunistic? That's how that looked, to me. I know Tere is good at this, and it jerked me. I was concerned, hence I asked for reads on people who WEREN'T WHO SHE WAS VOTING FOR, so I could get back to a touch-point and to check this 'opportunism'. 1925, which you didn't add to your case, btw. I wasn't going to vote until I'd got a clearer read, coz I was thrown from, what you correctly identified, as a town-read. 9 posts later she self-hammered.

[Bellaphant]

@Tool, 1 - agreed. 2/3- Zor and Shin's vote-parking on me and plot, respectively, is also contributing to them being scum.

In terms of 4, I've hydra-d 2 games in a row with BBT and am currently playing another on-going in hydra, and one without. It looks like that's affected how I interacted with him this game. Talk to me more about what you saw?

[Bellaphant]

Shin, I hadn't commented on it because I haven't posted, yet. You realise that's dumb?

I've said that one of us is a good lynch, and town can sort out any claimed PR nonsense tomorrow. He said he'd check in, not that his vote was set in stone - he even mentioned 3 people. Stop it.

[Bellaphant]

It's Zor. I agree Shin doesn't make sense.

[Bellaphant]

Hi Frog, I'm reading through what happened over night. My main confusion is Tool right now. I'm a little frustrated, tbh, but I believe you are conf-town. Will get back to you in a minute.

[Bellaphant]

Ok, so:

We need to hit BBT's partner tonight. It's not Shin. It's probably Zor, based on BBT's town-read of him for very little reasons, and BBT's unwillingness to engage with me about him. Zor's wanted to lynch me all game, and apart from tex (who's conf-town), I can see why that's an easy shout for scum to make. When I replaced in, the three people I was most familiar with were behaving differently to expected, and it took me a while to get my head in.

Shin is scummy on his own, and his sudden buddying of Zor to get me lynched suggests he is the scum opposite to Zor. Scum win either way if they get the town out of unconfirmed town lynched, which is why it makes sense for them to work together.

My issue with this is then I'm down Shin's partner. Only one kill last night is bizzare, and I was so set on the multi-ball idea. I know Thor hates it when people suspect him for still being alive, but maybe the fact he is doesn't suggest he's scum, there could just be a SK. That could explain the Lapsa clear, and mean Thor's claim is still legit. But, town seems to be over-powered, with a JOAT, a claimed cop and masons - that's a lot of conf-town if we're not in multi-ball. ARGH.

That leaves tool. Who I have to go re-read in ISO. Maybe It'll make more sense.

[Bellaphant]

Frog, you watching fireworks?

We've got to hit BBT's partner tonight. It isn't Shin, I'm pretty sure of that.

UNVOTE:

Thor, if he's got more shots left should either cop me or tool tonight.

[Bellaphant]

Hence my unvote.

Thoughts about Tool? I feel a bit better after Thor's post that someone's not trying to mislynch me today, but...

[Bellaphant]

Because I wasn't sure about the set-up. I was confused by the one-kill. I'm happier (ish) now.

[Bellaphant]

Zor, I had a knee-jerk reaction which I've talked about, and then she self-hammered. Nice that you thought about it for all of five minutes, though.

@Thor, I'm not sure what you meant, sorry.

@Frog, I've explained why I'm curious about the set-up, because of the one-kill. It doesn't make sense to kill the JOAT, who was almost out of shots, than to leave Thor alive, who has 'unclaimed' shots left. In terms of happier, I'm re-reading Tool, and wondering if he isn't being too quiet about this, while not trying to get his scum-read lynched (I know he's on VLA). It surprises me how Shin and Zor want to work together - if they are scum, it's win win for them no matter what team they are on, but Tool is different.

[Bellaphant]

If you bothered to read the later interactions with Plot, you'll understand what was bothering me. There's a ton of ate shit I'm not going into here, k?

'Wait, what?' Was asking for her other reads, rather than actually voting. I've had this exact conversation with you - it's like you keep saying the same thing, whatever I do.

I've never played multi-ball before, so that could well be a valid point. You've thought about the strategy for multi-ball scum way more than I have, clearly.

[Bellaphant]

Sorry, I'm having real reading issues today - were you on the other scum-team?

[Bellaphant]

Vanilla cop? Sorry, I'll reply to the rest properly, but I literally just played as vanilla cop and mafia goons came back vanilla. Is this the same here?

[Bellaphant]

At a coffee shop with wifi right now. Looking back more into Plot's interactions post.

*snip*

A note on BBT: He fooled me pretty thoroughly in this game; I had him as one of my top townreads going into N1. Maybe my top townread. Part of this was meta that I perhaps should have researched more thoroughly, part of this was how genuine his posting felt and how convincing he was about Thor. So now knowing that he's quite good as scum, I will weight interactions from him directed at other players as having less importance than interactions from other players toward him.

Another thing to note: Bella has been scumreading Zor since not long after she replaced in. Her vote on Shin, on the other hand, came after she seemed confused as to why people were voting him. Then she unvoted after I and other people started thinking about lynching BBT's partner specifically instead of just lynching scum. I see her Shin vote as more likely to be bussing, which would again point toward Zor being BBT's partner given other assumptions about the game I am making right now.

I'm still comfortable with Zor as the most likely partner for BBT. BBT did some fairly transparently partner-y looking things with Zor, but scum who play genuine can very easily wind up doing this when they genuinely think their partner looks towny. TSO and I have won games together as scum mostly townreading each other. But then you have the other side, with Zor not really having a whole lot to say about BBT/toward BBT.

Next up is getting to Zor's question to me a while back, I did see it but this has been my first opportunity to sit down with my laptop in a place with internet since leaving. Won't get to it today probably because I'm leaving the coffee shop now but that's next on the list.

Did you look at my initial readlists, where I had you, Shin and tex as total nulls, but Shin towards the bottom of this pile? Me wanting to lynch Shin didn't exactly come out of no-where. The vote also came after Shin had just spouted the same incorrect narrative about RC as Zor is now singing. It's a lot more convenient for the two of them, as scum, to negate my read on Shin and to focus on my wobble over RC.

Talking of:

@Zor,

Plot wasn't posting like Plot. Pushing them isn't scummy. After we'd talked, I backed the fuck away from that. I'm not talking about it anymore. I also never 'pushed my town-read off a cliff' (you've manged to say that twice in the post. Re-inforcing your mis-rep. It's not pretty enough to be clever) I'm not arguing I didn't have a knee-jerk reaction, but I also tried to fucking engage them over something that wasn't Shin, and they self hammered. They'd not even been clear they'd read up, so ofc I was suspicious of the automatic want to lynch the same slot. I never posted intent. Your last point is...that I use the same words? Really?

Oh wait, I didn't talk town down. I thought we'd give the slot time to catch up, and half an hour after the post, after I'd asked about reading up and didn't get a response I went to bed. l-1 and the hammer came out of no-where. Conveniently, you'd vote-parked on me so you got to avoid that VCA.

So it's Shin/Thor.

Just need to figure out if it's Bella or Zor with BBT

Hey Frog, you seem to have changed your mind a bunch today - could you talk us through it?

I suppose it is in the wiki.
I've never seen that variation before.

I only know this 'coz I just played it in an ongoing. It worried me when it was pointed out this was your claim. But, ok!

@Thor, I'm not sure what you meant, sorry.

You said you felt good that at least one person (Thor) didn't wan to lynch you.
I asked why you felt this way since there were, clearly, many people who didn't want to lynch you because they were all voting for Zor - not you.
Make sense as a question now?
Answer it if so.



@Frog - vote Zor and stop being bad.

Yeah, sorry. You are right if you look at VCA, where we've been about level-pegging, but it just didn't 'feel' like that. Maybe I'm paranoid, I hate mylo. I feel like I'm people's POE scum-pool, which is fair (hell, I even suggested it :S) but it frustrates me that two of the 'louder' voices are after my mis-lynch.

Frog, who do you want to hammer? Why can't I hammer scum?

I won't, for now, but...

[Bellaphant]

Zor, interested in hearing your conclusions. Also, when you said that me not hammering might have something to do with the set-up, how did you mean?

[Bellaphant]

I thought I had done, but nope (also, frog, was that a streetcar reference??) I'm vt. I nominate lapsa.

[Bellaphant]

It's just tool left. I'm not actaully sure this has helped anything.

[Bellaphant]

But...you haven't learnt much. Really, we were gonna lynch one of tool, shin, zor or me today. Your opinion hasn't changed. *head-desk*

[Bellaphant]

I'm so confused right now. Zor was pretty adamant that scum would kill scum. We've still got a claimed cop. Yet Frog gets killed. And there's only one kill.

I'm semi vla this weekend, but will be reading.

[Bellaphant]

(sorry guys, was busy - and then drunk - yesterday, I'll catch up tonight)

[Bellaphant]

Are we even sure that, if there were two scum teams, we'd be looking at more than 2 scum? What if there were two factions, but only one on each? Town isn't actaully that powered, with a one shot cop, a joat and masons if bbt was a neighbourisher (as the neighbourhood could have similar clout to the masons). We had one protective, but we don't know what powers other scum have - if there are two Teams it does suggest the not bbt team have some pr to match his.

I'm wool gathering a bit, coz like tex said if there are 3 'not town' left, this is game over for us. Am I barking up a silly tree?

[Bellaphant]

Wait, what? Lapsa, assuming it IS multi-ball, and if you believe your latest POE, and I'm scum with Thor (which, I'm not) then lynching me is anti-town anyway: you'll have two killing factions going into night. We need to hit BBT's partner - who you believe is Shin - but instead you are gonna vote with Shin to kill the 'other scum' to enable scum to have two scum-kills tonight, instead of one. I don't get your train of thought here at all.

Weirdly, the youtube videos aren't helping. Why is there no follow-up to scenario 1?

[Bellaphant]

? You're literally gonna ignore anything I say this day-phase? Baller.

Anybody that's not lapsa gonna work out wtf he's doing, with me?

[Bellaphant]

Hey Tool - thanks. I'm really poor at that kind of working out the set-up.

The only thing I can think, if there are two factions, is that one scum-team know who the other one is, as they'd've used a RB on a player, and then noted that only 'their' kill went through. Ugh.

p-edit, lots. Will read and come back.

[Bellaphant]

Tool's point about the not killing the other scum is also interesting, hadn't thought of that.

[Bellaphant]

Ok, do you think the RB idea in general has merit?

[Bellaphant]

I'm struggling. So, let's look at who's been driving lynches through.

Titus -

Fro99er, Plotinus,

Shinobi, BlueBloodedToffee,

Persivul

, Bellaphant, toolenduso (L-0)

RadiantCowbells -

texcat, Fro99er

, Shinobi, Thor665, Lapsa,

RadiantCowbells

(L-0)

Zoronos - Thor665, toolenduso,

texcat, Fro99er, Zoronos

(L-0)

Tex - 2/3 lynches

Positions 1,3
Tool - 2/3 Positions Lynch, 2
Thor - 2/3 Positions 4,1
Bella - 1/3 Positions l-1
Shin - 2/3 Position 3,3
Lapsa - 1/3 l-1

Shin's in that magic position on both of his lynches. He's scum.

If we're looking for 3 more scum, that suggests Thor/Shin/Tool. I don't like that, though - is there any possibility we started with one Infra-red (balanced with the neighbourisng power) and two UV? I'm not sure what that means for the RB situation though, if that is the reason for the 1 kill. Thoughts?

[Bellaphant]

@Lapsa, you know there's an alternative you aren't considering?

I don't make sense as a scum partner for Shin

I don't make sense as a scum partner for Thor

I'm not scum. I'm also interested in Shin's question.

I'm at l-1, still vt.

[Bellaphant]

Hey Thor!

I thought my read on you was better than in my first ever game - turns out I'm just not terrified of you anymore


I was really wrong about Zor, and couldn't get my shit together this day phase, and some n/a turned out bad for me, but generally some town did really well - Frog, you didn't do badly, but I think the masons was a bit of an echo chamber, which maybe didn't help. you rock, though.

Thanks for the unicorns, plotti <3

[Bellaphant]

Also, I was not a good kill choice! I wanted to win!!

Could you imagine a Shin/Thor/BBT/Bella team of some sort?
That'd be sick.

@shin: was that...a compliment?

[Bellaphant]

A non nt thread?

@Shin,

@aero, you rock

[Bellaphant]

Can I point you all to the large normal in sign ups? Me and aero are in it. X

[Bellaphant]

But thoooooooooooooor