♫ Mini 1689: Rhyme & Reason (Success!)

AngryPidgeon · Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:15 am

This is me not moving my vote.

AngryPidgeon · Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:24 am

I'm reserving judgement until Quilford finishes what he started. The claim does "fit way too well" in a couple senses, but none of that makes it true nor does it make Katsuki town.

AngryPidgeon · Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:42 am

In post 1534, chamber wrote:Like him saying he had a track result on you targeting him only implicates you in the world where he knows he can't die for some other reason. Intentionally sowing a mistake like that into his prior accusation is something I wouldn't put anyone on. Bravo if he fools me.

I'm having a hard time following this exactly.

I can see Katsuki being truthful here, but I can also see the possibility of him making it all up. No kill last night to screw with town and set up a relevant claim that lets him potentially justify his continued survival? Fake a guilty on me with the backstory?

Not really sure, but 1x Commuter is a weird claim and I want to see Quilford's first.

AngryPidgeon · Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:00 pm

I can't wait to see Pegasus's conclusions about me.

Also if Quilford DOES claim a RB on someone, then I pretty much want that person dead barring some minor considerations.

AngryPidgeon · Wed Jul 22, 2015 2:04 pm

Awesome, are we finally mislynching me today then?

AngryPidgeon · Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:07 pm

Oh believe me, there is going to be word eating when I flip.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:57 am

Well now that Quil is officially a claimed RB, I'm going to link this game for y'alls enjoyment.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=23588

The setup was precisely 2xMason + RB vs 3 goons. I was mafia in that game and got lynched D2.

Now...the existence of a Mini Normal game from 2 years ago that has this setup minus Katsuki's role doesn't mean that Katsuki is lying.....but I think Katsuki is lying.

The 1x Commuter claim is sticking out like a sore thumb to me here. I don't particularly see why Ether would include that when the core of the setup is clearly masons/RB and the commuter is just kind of awkward. I guess it can help town get back to Evens with the RB but it feels like a tad bit of overkill and it seems unnecessary. Furthermore, the claim looks extremely convenient for mafia in this situation. A kill goes missing which sucks for scum, but claiming commuter throws just enough doubt on the whole situation to invalidate an RB/Doc claim. Its also such a miniscule-y nothing of a role that it can exist or not in pretty much any scenario and the game will still look balanced.

--

All that said, I'm not totally convinced that Katsuki is scum although I am 100% sure that Quilford is town. Chamber is really giving me mixed emotions. His certainty that Katsuki was lying sort of makes sense given that he expressed similar concerns as I did about his reliability on Day 1. Of course if Chamber is scum then he would know Katsuki is lying and could just be defending me for credit. Chamber's insistence that the Commute claim was legitimate before Quilford claimed despite Chamber's distrust of Katsuki is kind of weird....So the tracker claim was obviously a lie but the Commute claim wasn't? The logic for that seems to be based on "Well the tracker fake claim makes sense in the context of having commuted" which..... is kind of like saying that Katsuki claimed to be a Square but later retracted and said hes just a Rectangle, which must be true since Katsuki wouldn't claim Square unless he were at least sort of a Square. :S

Right. Clearly I need more coffee.

Obvious town: AP, Quilford, Pegasus, Bookitty
Still probably town: Yosarian
I need to ISO these people: Ducks, DrD, PZ, Chamber
Probably scum: Katsuki

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:07 am

In post 1561, Katsuki wrote:I also love how scum couldnt POSSIBLY be fakeclaiming about their roles

p.s. I do not believe for a second that it is 3 goons, and I would bet on Chamber being a power role.

Scum is fake claiming their roles. They are fake claiming commuter at the present moment.

Look. I've modded a lot of games. I've reviewed even more. Its pretty clear that this setup is unbalanced as crap if Quilford is lying. Mason/mason + 1x Commuter is pretty scum sided, so hes being honest. Now its at least 2xMasons + RB. This setup would mean there are no mafia PRs in the game. Adding a 1x Commuter would pretty much not affect the balance (including presence of mafia PRs). Sooooo unless there is townie faking being a VT out there (why?!?) then my thoughts about the setup are pretty legit.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:43 am

In post 1566, Katsuki wrote:You're missing cause and effect. He's been posting like this BEFORE my fakeclaim (go back and look at his reactions to Quar fakeclaim, for example).

Oh right all those posts where I said the GS claim looked weird. Ya that was totally scummy of me.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:55 am

I think that the setup having a 1x Commuter in it is unlikely.

That is where I stand. It actually weakens the town IMO by causing doubt about the RB.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:56 am

1xCommuter, 2masons vs Encryptor/Goon/Goon is not a thing. There is literally a zero % chance that Ether would let that through.
@chamber.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:40 am

I can't support lynching Chamber over Katsuki Today.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:45 am

In post 1576, chamber wrote:
In post 1574, AngryPidgeon wrote:I can't support lynching Chamber over Katsuki Today.

In what world does this plausibly make sense? I can't support lynching katsuki over me at any point.

Uhhhhhhh. Seriously?

So you would rather not lynch someone whose flip is going to give us some amount of information over yourself even though you are both VT and you KNOW you are town?

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:46 am

And by VT I mean effectively Vanilla since Katsuki claimed 1 shot.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:56 am

Well there is a 3rd option which is that Katsuki is scum and no killed in order to setup a claim.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:06 am

I'd like to go back to 1v1'ing Katsuki if thats alright I suppose.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:26 am

In post 1585, Yosarian2 wrote:AP, are you listening to anything I'm saying here? We are not going to lynch kat today. It makes no sense.

What doesn't make sense is a 1-shot commuter claim in this setup. Katsuki's willingness to lynch Chamber also makes no sense given everything else hes said about me being obvious scum and believing he was shot.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:23 pm

Every single post Pegasus makes has the following TL;DR: AP is scum.

I agree about Chamber. While I can envision a universe in which he flips mafia, I really don't think he will deep down.

The thing about Katsuki being a kill target is exactly this....yes the claim looks pretty. It comes with ribbons, bows, and rechargeable batteries. That doesn't make it town though, especially considering its Katsuki we are talking about. I still do not remotely believe that the setup is RB + 1x Commuter and that Katsuki somehow knew that Q was lying but doesn't give two shits about Quilford now claiming a role of roughly the same magnitude as a 1-shot gunsmith.

Its all bullshit all the way to the core and I want people who are voting Chamber to instead vote me Today.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:24 pm

Furthermore, anyone with a scumread on me is still epically failing at mafia.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:30 pm

Pegasus please vote me and then proceed to vote Katsuki after I flip town.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:45 pm

In post 1598, Pegasus30 wrote:his reasons are bad setup spec.

How the hell did I say Chamber is town for setup reasons? HE may or may not be blocked. Katsuki may or may not be town. I think Chamber is town for his play.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:47 pm

In post 1598, Pegasus30 wrote:doesn't seem all that unbalanced.

No, it doesn't. Which is not my argument. My argument is that the 1x Commuter claim is still bullshit despite the setup being balanced with or without it.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:48 pm

In post 1598, Pegasus30 wrote:The commuter could easily help town get back to evens as
someone
AngryPidgeon brought up earlier.

FIXED THAT FOR YOU.

IM NOT SOME FREAKING SCRUB. I GET THE ANGLES OF SETUP SPEC.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:50 pm

In post 1601, Pegasus30 wrote:I'd rather not lynch you if you are town. You are my top suspect along with Yos but I'm still working on developing my reads.

I think you are overdramatizing the suspicion on you. No one really suspects you besides me and Katsuki (and I'm the only one who you read as town that suspects you - you have Kats as scum - so you can't just say "scum will pile on eventually"). That makes a lynch of you very unlikely. Yet you are acting like it is a foregone conclusion and throwing your hands up in the air for what exactly?

OVER DRAMATIZING?? I HAD A FAKE GUILTY CLAIMED ON ME EARLIER TODAY.

I AM PISSED OFF THAT THE PERPETRATOR OF THAT LIE IS NOW DRIFTING INTO "CONFTOWN" PILES FOR PEOPLE AND PEOPLE ARE SHAMING ME FOR SAYING HE SHOULDN'T

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:56 pm

In post 1606, Pegasus30 wrote:I looked back and I think I misread. Okay, why is Chamber town for his play?

I don't think his interactions with Quaroath are particularly likely to be from scum. It looks too lackadaisical to be from someone who knew that Q flipping scum would make him look bad. His admitting to playing to his scum meta looks town. His stance on Katsuki right now definitely feels town; assuming Chamber is town, then he sees Katsuki's claim at the legitimate explanation for the no kill last night as opposed to being blocked and he is arguing for Katsuki being town for that reason. None of that is really indicative on its own, but the way hes going about arguing it really feels genuine.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:05 pm

My scumread on Katsuki is almost entirely based on the fact that there is no 1x Commuter in this setup and its 100% silly to think there is.

I swear to god.

Riddle me this: If Quilford got ran up and claimed on D1, would Katsuki have CCd him? Because a RB and a ???-shot Gunsmith are fairly comparable in power. Yet somehow Katsuki was SO SURE that Q was lying about being the other PR and doesn't look twice at Quilford??

Hes scum.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:08 pm

Pegasus. If you think this is about "the suspicion on me" then you are clearly not reading my posts.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:13 pm

Welllll Chamber could be scum with Katsuki. It certainly would make sense for him to fake claim a Commute role if they suddenly suspect there was a block guilty on Chamber.

If not that, then Ducks, PZ, or DrD would be my best bet and I'm not extremely sure which I'd say. I'll try and figure that out.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:32 pm

In post 1629, DrDolittle wrote:oh poo i thought this game was in nighttime zzz

This isn't a fake townslip is it

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:33 pm

The whole point of claiming 1-shot is its such a nothing of a role that it fits with the balance perfectly fine.

AngryPidgeon · Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:33 pm

Intent to hammer.

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 5:41 am

I'm sure glad Bookitty asked for an arbitrary number from a biased individual who won't be held accountable for producing said number. /s /s /s

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:20 am

In post 1642, DrDolittle wrote:@AP this seems to be mentioned a lot. is there a precedence on MS of this happening? It sounds like a very big risk for a shitty WIFOM situation. if so, please link

Its not, but if anyone would do it, its Katsuki. Yes, it has been done before. I'm only bringing this up because Katsuki's role is a lie. That is the crux of my issue with him here and the no-kill is not something I would rule out immediately like everyone is doing.

In post 1645, DrDolittle wrote:where he doesn't even know that a protective roel potentially exists

FFS. The day opens up. There is no kill. Scum have daytalk. Katsuki now KNOWS there is some protective role out there and fakes a Commute. In what world did he fake the commute before it would be obvious that a protective role exists? I know you aren't incapable of following simple timelines.

In post 1653, DrDolittle wrote:there s a lot of time left guys, lets calm down

Talking to yourself?

In post 1638, DrDolittle wrote:guys why is it not nighttime yet

Not that that is scummy, but wtf DrD. Going to just criticize me and make snipe-y posts.

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:24 am

In post 1671, Bookitty wrote:think about why I may have asked that related to the claim that has been made.

Which claim? The fake track claim? I'd expect him to post some highly bullshit number like 99%, if he's willing to post some highly bullshit fakeclaims on townies. That all checks out, but still doesn't give any indication about his alignment.

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:49 am

In post 1674, Katsuki wrote:Try and discredit me more, it's cute when you try to AP.

If I wanted to discredit you I'd point out your current scummy banner

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:50 am

In post 1676, Yosarian2 wrote:(she's actually on the committee that select them)

Yes hello, I am as well >.>

I've reviewed at least one game with her.

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:53 am

In post 1676, Yosarian2 wrote:That only holds up if you're abandoning your theory that the scum deliberately no-killed. And if you're abandoning that, then chamber has to be scum, right?

I don't have any theories outside of Katsuki's role being a lie and Katsuki being scum. That is it. Everything else is just speculation.

Also since Pegasus? asked: I'd still probably lynch Ducks over most of the people here. DrD and Papa Zito are at least looking decent to me in the last couple pages.

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:04 am

In post 1680, Papa Zito wrote:We have
real
stuff to work with here.

Ok, I'm done.

I'll come post in 48 hours.

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 8:49 am

In post 1694, Bookitty wrote:Do you think Katsuki is scum?

YES.

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:34 am

In post 1682, Papa Zito wrote:Why anyone is talking about your alignment or motives right now is beyond me.

I thought you were just blanket dismissing my posts which seems to be the hip thing to do Today.

My thought process is that Katsuki is scum because the claim is BS and the CC of Quaroath but not Quilford makes no sense.

No-killing is really not that suboptimal? It sows confusion (obviously) and it doesn't actually cost scum anything unless another kill is stopped. Its not like town has gained a lynch from it happening, it just means we'll end up in MyLo over LyLo which is arguable worse. The motivation to No-kill is to build up a claim that looks legitimate and throw doubt/confusion on other things. Also I strongly doubt scum would kill Katsuki when his mission statement in this game has been to mislynch me with chutzpah.

AngryPidgeon · Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:51 pm

@quilford: That's because Katsuki is scum so that isn't a possibility.

AngryPidgeon · Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:18 pm

In post 1746, Pegasus30 wrote:(2) If he was scum, he'd bus his weaker partner when the wagon was building. Derailing it only makes him look terrible on a surface level and he knew Quar was getting lynched eventually so this wasn't him attempting to get a perfect win.

FTR, this is pretty much where I'm at with it.

AngryPidgeon · Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:29 pm

For fucks sake. Yosarian is town or I'm retiring from mafia. Truax .

AngryPidgeon · Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:53 am

In post 1751, Pegasus30 wrote:Also, why do you think AP is both defending Chamber as well as stating an intent to hammer when Chamber got to L-1?

Because the night action claims make Chamber an objectively good lynch. Also the only actual wagon is on Chamber and I don't expect anyone to lynch Katsuki or Ducks Today. In fact people are kinda waving me away as a VI for my thoughts on Katsuki so I'm kinda over trying to push it.

AngryPidgeon · Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:13 am

On phone.

DrD could be scum. I thought his vote/unvote on Chamber was probably town. He looked pretty genuinely confused and I'd expect scum to check themselves with a bit more rigor before putting someone at L1 just to unvote right away. And contradict himself in the process.

AngryPidgeon · Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:07 am

In post 1782, Pegasus30 wrote:@ AP, please answer my earlier question - do you seriously think someone has to be bad at mafia to be scumreading you?

I think I'm really obviously town but of course I'm biased about that. This is completely different from my scum game, but I guess I can't expect people to know that. Still on phone.

I'm not going to rehash my stance on Quar over again. I don't see the point and anything I say about it won't be objective.

AngryPidgeon · Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:43 am

DrDolittle wrote:
5. don't quite like the town pass lalala has been getting. i think peg asked me why lalala is scum. i ask why she is town (other than maybe some interactions of her predecessor which may or may not be faked).
6. ap.

5. Me neither! I think she is...what's the technical term.. a scumbumble!
6. Hi. Can I help you?

@Pegasus: My scum game is way more controlled than my town game. I wouldn't just claim and threaten to self hammer on P7. I'd do something (that I consider) disingenuous like go through all the votes on me and decide on one or two to call flimsy. I know how to pander, I just don't feel the need to do it as scum. I'm more open as town and more likely to talk about how I feel. My push on Katsuki actually is something that is kind of neutral for me. When town, I'm usually uncertain of who to lynch and try to get in quick off the cuff dialogues with people and get town reads based on who sounds genuine. The biggest point I have for me being town this game is the emotional attitude I've had around being willing to be lynched. I'm always stubborn but my potshots comments that I somewhat regret and challenging aura that manifests in asking to be lynched is not the sort of bravado I have as scum. As scum I'm totally capable of keeping a lid on it enough to do things that I know people will town read me for. As town I just don't care to.

This quick and dirty postv was done on the phone.

AngryPidgeon · Tue Jul 28, 2015 4:28 am

I could vote for Ducks but I don't think anyone would care.

AngryPidgeon · Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:47 am

I should do some rereading but I've been kinda busy. Here are my thoughts on the people off the top of my head:

BooKitty: Town for claim
Quilford: Town for claim
Pegasus:

In post 668, Green Crayons wrote:Pegasus30 town or tryhard scum oh so hard nah probably town

-----^ Line of obvtownieness ^-----
Yosarian: I have a twinge of paranoia about Yos/Pegasus being a thing (lol) and thats pretty much the only way I could see either of them being scum. I thought Yosarian's walls with GC looked town v town and his push on Bookitty was awkward in a probably town way. Interactions with Pegasus including Pegasus doing a 180 and saying that the game suddenly makes sense now that Yos is town as if he were Jimmy Cliff is a little strange to be sure. Still that is entirely paranoia, and most of the things Yos posts look town to me on an individual level.

Chamber: His comments on his own meta look town. His play yesterday didn't feel like what I've seen of his scumgame and some of the sentiments have looked genuine. The RB on him makes me willing to lynch him ultimately although I suspect he's town.

DrD: Meh? Vote and quick unvote on Chamber showed a bit of transparency that I wouldn't expect to see from scum in most cases. I still agree that the little bit he did with Quilford on D1 is more likely town than not. This isn't a very strong read.

PZ: Replaced UT who was kind of gross. Has spent the last several posts just listing possibilities that explain the lack of night kill without really coming to any conclusion. Null-scummy I suppose. -shrug-

Katsuki: Terrible. Fakeclaiming guilties and making weird roleclaims that are pretty improbable.

Ducks: Pretty much what I've said. Her push on me felt like an effort to appear town at the beginning of the game. No follow up on most of her stuff and pandering to DrD. Having a hard time seeing her town train of thought in this game.

AngryPidgeon · Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:41 am

I still would like to 1v1 Katsuki if thats cool with everyone.

AngryPidgeon · Wed Jul 29, 2015 5:36 am

Intent to hammer, or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the mislynch.

AngryPidgeon · Wed Jul 29, 2015 12:20 pm

VOTE: chamber

AngryPidgeon · Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:41 am

Is it just Zito?

AngryPidgeon · Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:32 am

VOTE: Papa Zito

Pretty much agree?

I don't see why scum would do something other than kill Quilford last night.

AngryPidgeon · Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:01 pm

Well this game was a bit crazy.

More than a bit crazy.

AngryPidgeon · Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:02 pm

Quilford for Paragon >.>