Mini 506: The Siena Syndicate - Game Over!

[ChannelDelibird]

Woohoo! At last, I'm back playing forum mafia!

Vote: White

for being the only player I had heard of before my comeback.

[ChannelDelibird]

Am I the only one thinking "Wow, this is giving us a wealth of information" right now?

I'm assuming that was sarcastic. I wouldn't expect us to get anything immediately significant on page 1 - it's possible some things said now might be relevant later in the game, but complaining so early about a lack of success is a bit strange. What did you expect?

[ChannelDelibird]

Cynic Clinic seems to have accrued four votes without much fanfare at all. I reckon there could be scum on this wagon.

I'll have a look back over the posts of those voting for him.

[ChannelDelibird]

ChannelDelibird was showing promise, I like his last post where he comments on the 4 vote CC wagon. Where'd he go?

I had a particularly busy weekend (alas, these things can happen), and when I came back, hey presto! You guys had lynched. I certainly hope that today will be a longer day (and will be suspicious of anyone who tries to make it the opposite).

I am just checking in now, as I have to head off to school in a minute, but I will post my belated thoughts on D1 this afternoon, as well as some D2 stuff. Stay tuned.

[ChannelDelibird]

Sorry for the delay, have had a busy weekend, with both my birthday and a friend's to celebrate.

BTW, ChannelDelibird, did you have a reason for ducking my earlier question?

I didn't deliberately duck your question. As I said in my last post, I didn't actually have time to respond to any material at the time, because I was just letting you guys know I was here at the start of the day (it was 8 AM and I had to go to school).

To answer it, I left my vote on White for lack of a more suitable place to put it. I'm firmly of the opinion that leaving a random vote on somebody is a more useful option than removing it without putting it on someone else for a non-random reason.

Now, I've got birthday dinner, so I'll be back in 30-45 mins or so to give some reactions to what's gone on since my last proper post.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB's Opinion On (Mostly) Everything That Ever Happened, Ever

Disclaimer: The following may not actually contain CDB's opinion on (mostly) everything that ever happened, ever. However, everything below is guaranteed to be the 100% guaranteed real opinion of CDB, although I'm not willing to guarantee that CDB is in fact a real entity who may or may not possess an opinion on anything. So go figure.

D1

OK, so immediately after my last post of consequence, my insight was rendered less relevant by mod error. A quick 3 votes is considerably less suspicious than a quick 4, although it's perhaps still worth looking at, especially as Green Day was one of the players on it, and we know him to have been mafia. So, from this incident I'll place an

IGMEOY: VampanezeHunter and ChronX

.

I thought ChronX's post 41 re: Avinyl and CC was a good one, placing a sensible and well-reasoned vote.

Then there's this from VH:

Unvote
Vote: Avinyl

Reason: He claims ChronX voted without a reason in post 34, when post 34 clearly states his reason for voting. He's either a) not paying attention to posts, which is dangerous for the town, or b) he's paying attention but trying to twist our perceptions, which can't possibly have a benign reason behind it.

Hmmm....This interested me a bit. I agree with all of his points here, but it could be scum trying to get an early target to make their game a whole lot easier.

Strikes me as over-the-top reaction here. At such an early stage of the game, it surely makes more sense to vote for somebody because there are genuine points against them rather than not vote because it could be scum-fuelled (I mean, everything could be scum-fuelled). This just doesn't really sit right with me.

IGMEOY 2: VampanezeHunter

Avinyl's shtick about not wanting people to state that a vote is random is just

weird

. I'm not sure exactly how much can be read into it, but I can see why people were getting suspicious of him (granted, it wasn't just for that reason. I agree with the sentiments regarding his FoS trigger-happiness).

Around page 3 originality became somebody who had to be policy lynched - I'd just have preferred it if the policy lynch was done at the end of a 10 page day 1 than a 3 page one.

The a) point in clockwork's following post is something I find faintly odd:

FoS: originality for either (a) using extremely faulty logic (and trying to cover it up afterwards) or (b) making very counterproductive jokes. (One of these must be true.)

On second thoughts, this probably isn't scummy, just more something that needs to be corrected - basically, you seem to be taking originality's 'logic' way too seriously. You're allowed to call it for what it was (general asshat-ery).

ChronX's hammer IS premature. I guess I understand the reasoning but I just don't like it. It's a very easy mislynch for scum to get away with.

IGMEOY: ChronX

D2

OK, so re: the night deaths, I think it's best to assume now that we have 3 Mafia and 1 SK running around - such would be the most likely case from the evidence we have. Considering other options should only be done if we get any strong evidence for other weird roles.

VH seems to make a really big deal out of that. I'll put it down to newbishness though, as in his position I probably wouldn't guess immediately that there was likely an SK.

Peers' post 93 dings the scumdar.

Avinyl, what do you think is more likely... the person who Green Day random-voted for killed him... or the person who actually voted for Green Day killed him? (That would be you, BTW.)

[/snip]

So... where do we put our effort? Cynic Clinic, Avinyl, or somewhere else?

Looks to me like scum trying to narrow down town's options, and I don't like it at all.

FoS: Peers

White's attack on ChronX's reasoning in post 98 strikes me as way too vicious for what is a clear and understandable explanation - you don't have to agree with it, but as far as I can see it's not damning.

IGMEOY: White

ChronX's suspicion of clockwork for mentioning the possibility of a bus driver is really strange considering he doesn't call out VH on the frankly less likely possibility of a kill reflector.

Finally, CC - if clockwork's bus driver mention

was

a subtle claim, way to throw a hint to the mafia.

Now that I've gone over everything I felt was necessary, here's how my suspicions stand at the moment:

People worth looking at more closely right now:

Peers
ChronX
White
VH

I'll therefore go with a

Vote: Peers

, although I could go to either of those four at the moment.

[ChannelDelibird]

I actually dont think that peers comment was that scum like. Most likely he is right and it was one of those 2 situations that led to the death of Green Day.

Incorrect.

You're opening up a huge can of WIFOM here, shown by the following questions that can be asked as a result of that statement: would the SK really kill somebody who they were so obviously connected to? Or would they do it to throw up precisely the WIFOM situation we are now finding ourselves in?

And here's some more, pertinent, WIFOM that comes up: why the bloody hell would somebody voting for Green Day kill them when the fact that they were voting for him indicates that they think they might be able to get him lynched?

There's no more reason for those people to have killed Green Day than anyone else, and certainly not enough for Peers to try and limit the town's options so much.

[ChannelDelibird]

WHAT IS THE POINT OF THE VACATION/LIMITED ACCESS THREAD IF NOBODY READS THE DAMN THING.

Seriously, it's required reading.

Thoughts soon.

[ChannelDelibird]

Ack, had to rewrite this post from 2/3 complete, so I am a little annoyed. Anyway, this is my take on what's happened since my last post.

Peers' "where do we put our effort" comment was indelicate (as was the "now this is entertainment" post White cited), but I think you guys are overreacting. Noticing a bandwagon is forming--and staying out of it--is not a scum-tell.

I don't see the connection between the two sentences here. Where in Peers' post is he "noticing a bandwagon is forming - and staying out of it"? And what does it have to do with his "where do we put our efforts" line?

tyhess' 123 is complete WIFOM.

ChronX's PBPA in 125 goes some way to reassure me on my earlier concerns - although I don't agree with his belief that clockwork was defending White, that seems clear to me that it was a question about my voting pattern rather than people voting for White.

That said, I agree with his comments re: clockwork and the Bus Driver theory here, and this clarifies his earlier posts on the subject enough to make me

UnFoS: ChronX

.

Disagree with White's 128 that ChronX is "acting like his back is against the wall". I see calm, but confident, reasoning.

CC's 132 about my choice of vote after outlining my suspicions I guess I can understand, although I'd like to hear

why

the Peers case is weak rather than 'there were better options'. Out of the three other suspicions I had at the time, White was a minor point and ChronX has been sufficiently clarified. It was maybe 50-50 between Peers and VH, but I do believe Peer's post was scummy.

Hadhfang's 134 with role speculation:

never try to outguess the mod

. It really doesn't help. Besides, I can definitely see 4 or 5 power roles, especially if you're counting an SK as a power role.

Peers' 135: My deduction was based on experience of this site. I find the majority of mini normals have either 3 scum or 3 scum and 1 SK, the latter of which seems more likely given the death of a scum last night and nobody else. Yes, there are other possibilities, but 3 scum/1 SK is by far the simpler and more likely, and it's best to think simple unless there is evidence otherwise. This is quite different to why I voted you - you seemed to be limiting the town's choices for a lynch. I was merely giving my informed-by-experience opinion on what was the most likely case. Also, your reasons behind the two people you showcased as lynch choices was based on WIFOM reasoning, part of the CrapLogic family.

clockwork, could you remind me where you explain your reasoning behind why you believe a Bus Driver is more likely?

ChronX's vote for me in 148: as I've already said, D1 I was busy and you guys were way too trigger-happy. The other point I've already addressed. Also, it's not really a great idea to say your vote is a conversation starter. That kinda detracts from the point.

Lastly, VH's LoS is basically crap. Smacks of scum trying to get away with pointing at lurkers.

unvote, vote: VH

For all the reasons I mentioned in my last big post (which I don't believe he's responded to) and his newest, crappest post. Maintaining a

FoS: Peers

, as I still have my reservations about that post of yours, but VH has made his case more pressing.

[ChannelDelibird]

What I can't see any aligations please tell me and White, if you wanted to replace me in an Open with 5 people in. Please can you all tell me your reasons for voting me as I don't know them.

All I can say to this is: dotdotdot.

[ChannelDelibird]

What I can't see any aligations please tell me and White, if you wanted to replace me in an Open with 5 people in. Please can you all tell me your reasons for voting me as I don't know them.

All I can say to this is: dotdotdot.

Interesting observation,

Vote: Vampaneze hunter

I'm here all week.

Nice bandwagon vote.

[ChannelDelibird]

Glork is here! Hurrah!

[ChannelDelibird]

Vast, epic apologies for lack of posting before my V/LA. I'll be reading up and throwing text at you like there's no tomorrow.