Mini Normal 1919: Endgame

[Umlaut]

Umlaut plz belp

I don't know how to belp.

Also um I'm town so don't kill me.

[Umlaut]

Nice way to enter the game.

I'm an odd-night cop. Let me look at my results quick

[Umlaut]

Mulch and Dunkerdoodles are inno.

[Umlaut]

What other roles do we know right now?

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: whoever I'm voting

[Umlaut]

I have no idea about the game balance, I'm trying to skim now but I'm kind of at work.

[Umlaut]

I'm assuming vanilla cop gets positive for VT or goon, negative for anything else. It's totally possible last scum is a goon based on my 30 seconds of thinking about the setup, so can't really narrow it down from that.

[Umlaut]

Wait, there are a lot of town PRs. (Didn't read closely.)

Maybe last scum ought to be a PR after all. On the other hand, being undetectable by a vanilla cop is a superpower in itself, sort of?

[Umlaut]

Doesn't need much of a point if town already has a vigilante, a regular cop and a gunsmith.

[Umlaut]

Hold on, think I've got something here.

Gunsmith gets positive from mafia

or

vigilante, and there's a vigilante in the game
Vanilla cop gets positive from mafia PR

or

town PR, and both kinds of PR are in the game
Cop gets positive from mafia or... miller?

Is there an unclaimed miller?

[Umlaut]

Some colored-in VCs (blue means "innocent if you believe me," green and red mean "flipped that color"). Not sure if I got anything out of them, but I spent the time doing them so I might as well post them.

End of day 1

Tchill13

(7):

Boonskiies

, Fykus, Empiricus,

Sergtacos

,

Carcalilly

,

Mulch

, Klazam

Sergtacos

(4):

Dunkerdoodles

,

Tchill13

,

Vedith

Carcalilly

(2):

Branson

, TwoFace

Mulch

(1):

Trivium

Not Voting

(0)

End of day 2

Trivium

(6): TwoFace, Fykus, Empiricus,

Sergtacos

,

Trivium

,

Mulch

Sergtacos

(1):

Boonskiies

Not Voting

(3): Klazam,

Dunkerdoodles

,

Branson

End of day 3

Branson

(5):

Boonskiies

, Fykus,

Dunkerdoodles

, Empiricus, TwoFace

Fykus

(1):

Mulch

Not Voting

(2): Klazam,

Branson

[Umlaut]

In a normal I think they have to be.

[Umlaut]

VCA says TwoFace is scum

I vaguely feel that way too but I don't have an actual theory to back it up, just a vague sense of "I kind of want to look into TwoFace after doing that." What's your basis?

[Umlaut]

Oh derp, good point

Need to compare that reasoning to the "Klazam is the only non-vanilla if we believe Fykus is town" reasoning.

[Umlaut]

Actually

TwoFace voted TChill during Day 1, then unvoted when he expected to be inactive for a period (and not at a point where TChill was highly suspected and about to get lynched or anything).

He literally only voted scum on day 1, which I guess could be construed as a knowledge slip if you don't think he's that good, but I'm not ready to say that's the case here.

I do think it's unlikely both scum bussed so
VOTE: TwoFace
until I have a better reason to vote someone else, but let's not hurry here, the day just started.

Can someone tell me why Mulch is objectively conftown?

[Umlaut]

Nice to know my investigative results are completely useless

[Umlaut]

The fact that the cop doesn't trust his own investigation on mulch is just laughable.

[Umlaut]

I'm considering Fykus as well, town has a lot of power if his claim is genuine. But I feel like town is OP in a lot of normals lately so I'm not ready to take that as conclusive.

[Umlaut]

Can someone tell me why Mulch is objectively conftown?

You don't ask this about your inno result.

Mulch is complaining I labeled him blue ("I know he's town but maybe you don't") instead of green ("everyone knows he's town"). I don't know why. You remember I replaced in about 11 seconds ago, right?

[Umlaut]

You really shouldn't have replaced in. As I'm said earlier you replaced into a scum slot and you SHOULD be lynched today.

Kind of presumptuous to say I "shouldn't have." I knew I was replacing into the late game under strong suspicion.

[Umlaut]

(going to lunch now, will continue reading in a bit)

[Umlaut]

Think about that for a second. Ok?

How many scum are left? 1
If you are legit, he is town.
If you are lying, he's still town.

There is literally no way mulch can be scum.

Okay, I agree with this now.

Re. slipping I only like skimmed the last page and saw it was day 4 and there was a theme of "let's lynch Boon." I was personally invited to replace in by TB, so I figured there must be something unappealing or hard to fill about the slot, and checked to see what it was before I agreed to take it.

I'd like to hear something from Fykus because I agree that setup analysis points to Fykus. He's early enough on the TChill wagon that I could believe he didn't really want to double-bus but thought jumping off would be more suspicious.

[Umlaut]

TwoFace, if you're town try to remember how much flak I got for "slipping" in Open 680.

[Umlaut]

Actually this doesn't even make sense as an accusation, like why would I as town think for one second about what it implies if I flip red when it's not going to happen?

[Umlaut]

Hmm, would scum!TwoFace prefer to get me lynched today, or to get Fykus lynched? Mulch, help me out here.

[Umlaut]

Actually yeah, let's go with Fykus. Vanilla cop is a very plausible role for a mafioso to have, particularly when they're up against three town PRs and need a way of finding them.

Actually the fact that "I" investigated Dunkerdoodles suggests he was at least not obvtown as of last night, and if Mafia knew he was a PR that would explain the kill choice.

VOTE: Fykus

[Umlaut]

Though come to think of it that would imply Fykus lied about who he targeted one night, which is kind of a risky play (though maybe not too risky if you're about to be lynched)

[Umlaut]

I'm trying, dude.

There's still most of the day left, there's no hurry here. All those three people haven't even commented since I replaced in.

[Umlaut]

I'm not going to say you shouldn't hammer just because it's unfair to me or some garbage like that, but don't expect me to give coherent and helpful final thoughts when I'm only getting my bearings in the game.

[Umlaut]

Mulch, you should give your final thoughts too before hammering since you'll probably be shot tonight.

[Umlaut]

Thoughts:

I think it's unlikely Fykus will be killed whether or not he's scum if you choose to no-lynch tomorrow, since there's good reason to suspect him with so many other flipped PRs. So if you're leaning toward lynching him tomorrow anyway, there's not really any use in waiting an extra day.

Other than that I don't have much.

[Umlaut]

Klazam has been on the right side of every lynch wagon in the game (well, except this one if it goes through)

[Umlaut]

Though only by virtue of not voting

[Umlaut]

Big shout out to Umlaut for replacing in a tough slot and sticking it through

Hey, any game I win is a good game. Totally counting this in my W/L.