Mini 570, A Small Town in Italy Mafia, Over

[xXFoxXx]

I'm of course the replacement for Mikeydaman, and I've read through the game so far and have drawn some own thoughts.

I claim Mafia Roleblocker.

My scum buddies are Ration and Steek.

This Messege is for Prof. Guppy only:

Don't worry, I didn't name you.

followed by Occult bragging about the WIFOM of it.

What I think has happened, is that Occult has likely named one of his scum buddies, and selected the rest as town. If he selected which scum to name carefully, and was able to choose who was most likely going to be lynched first out of the group, then Scum gets a strong position.




Assuming we didn't consider that, if we lynched NamedPersonA and they turn out to be scum, there's a very strong possibility we would lynch another of the people he named, and if I'm correct, they would turn out to be town.

Then we're left with the situations where we have 2 more named people, 1 we lynched was scum, another we lynched was town. We fall more clearly into the deep game of WIFOM Occult has set for us, one that we cannot ignore.



I think that the contents of his post are indeed WIFOM, and not the fact that he posted it. So how do we determine who of those is scum?
Well, I do not believe the game started with more than 3 scum for such a small game, Occult named 3 people, plus himself, that means he's definitely lied about 1 of them. This gives us at least a 1 in 3 chance of accidentally hitting a town player, and I do not believe that he'd of named all the scum.

Notice how he singled out Prof. Guppy, I think this is more to try and ensure that Guppy does NOT get lynched instead of the scum buddy he intends to, as is going with the game of WIFOM Occult has created.




We have a cop who hasn't been counterclaimed, I personally am without reasonable doubt they are in fact truth-telling and sane.

I think the person Occult wants us to lynch and find scum is Sykedoc (Ration), and that's what I'm going to do. I think if we lynch Syke, Vamp inspects Steek, and we go from there.

[xXFoxXx]

Pants, we don't need to lynch two people. I think it's very probable that Occult added in one scum buddy into his list, which gives us a highly probably list of 3 people to select from. Mafia can only get as good as highly probable.

We can lynch who we decide is the most scummy from that list, and have Vamp inspect the other.

It gives us a probable 1 in 3 chance of a quick scum lynch, and a 2 in 3 chance of identifying/lynching a scummy.

[xXFoxXx]

As has been said in two of the three posts above yours, Steek has already had a innocent verdict from vamp, which according to your theory means that there's a 'highly probably' chance that both skyedoc and guppy are scum? Do you still think that they're both likely to be scum, just one of them or neither? If just one, who do you think is the most likely?

Incorrect, that's not what I believe. I said there is a high probability of one of the 3 being scum, which means if 1 is already an innocent verdict, we are 50-50 to get scum on the first lynch, and theoretically 100% to find scum if we lynch one and inspect the other, THAT IS if I happen to be correct.

[xXFoxXx]

Fox: Out of Guppy and Skedoc who would you rather lynch today? If we decided to follow your theory, do you think it would be better to no lynch today, get vamp's investigation on guppy/skyedoc and lynch whoever turned up guilty or whoever didn't get a innocent result? Or if we got an innocent result the first night, no lynch again and investigate the other so we don't lynch any townies?

No-Lynching could be a very valid option if we can be sure to have our cop protected, I don't want to No-Lynch twice in a row however, because by doing so we are guaranteed to lose two townies before we can move forward, whereas if we no-lynch only one day, we lose a townie tonight, and then have a reasonably sure guess that the remaining is scum.

So we have this decision;

Lynching: Acceptable reason to believe 50% chance of getting scum on the lynch, 50% lynching town.
Most Likely Result: 1 town dead, 1 scum dead. Either "sure" vote for next day due to cop, or a jump start on afterwards
Worst Case: 3 townies dead, with very low risk of not identifying scum.

No-Lynching Once: 50% chance of identifying scum for sure, and extremely high probability of 100% identifying for a scum lynch on the day after, due to elimination.

Most likely Result: 1 Town dead, 1 Scum dead, and more information on our cops credibility as well as a jump start for the day after the lynch.
Worst Case: 3 Townies dead ,very low risk of not identifying scum.

No-Lynching Twice: Same as No-Lynching once, except guaranteed to lose at least 2 townies. (Not reasonable)

No lynching once looks good to me, and I'd like to see skyedoc investigated first.

[xXFoxXx]

The play right now is

Vote: NoLynch

I think we should stick to the plan of having sykedoc investigated tonight. I don't like the idea of ruling things in and out based on what we think the mod would make the setup.

[xXFoxXx]

I suppose I will go along with this, it seems to be sound...

Unvote Vote :Guppy

[xXFoxXx]

I'm continuing with what I originally planned, and I hear very little argument that sykedoc is town.

vote sykedoc