Open 108 - Weak M.D. - Game over before 725

[popsofctown]

And prevents a double death from the hider and weak doc^^^^

Why don't we just lay some ground rules and then turn everyone's hypo claims loose?

But we have to lay those ground rules first. Let me give my call on the four rules:


1. All players hypo targetted each night:

That doesn't actually cover everyone you know, because only two of us are actually hider/doc. It's important that the hider and doc don't actually target the same person though, as has been said, could be double death. I would say, forbid a final hypoclaim setup that possibly double targets anyone, but don't require that everyone get covered. (both will probably happen anyway)

2. Every player hypo-targets a new player each night

Yes, yes. That should be a rule. I think it's obvious that this gives us most info.

3. Does order matter?

Obviously it does matter. I don't think leaving the power roles to grab first turn if they feel they want it is a good idea. Given freedom, they'll probably rolefish themselves. Everyone's human. Computers aren't. I think someone should pull a random number generator and assign an order, and we just follow that.

4. Should we hypoclaim for both roles?

At first i'd say yes. On second thought, what about hider hypo only? The weak doc is far more useful than the hider it seems to me, the hider goes double or nothing while the weak doc actually saves skin. If we go hypo hider, say we get one confirmed innocent and one confirmed guilty. Then we get a lynch, and the weak doc can protect our confirmed innocent every night.


Or, here's a third option. Everyone hider hypoclaims different people. The entire town hypo doc claims whom we think is the most innocent. That way we confirm an innocent per night with the weak doc, but kind of make sure the more useful power role stays alive. The hider blazes a trail of innocents (and besides the weak docs') and hits a guilty eventually. In endgame, we hopefully have a weak doc protecting people from a large pool of innocents against N-1 mafia ( i should check how many mafia are in this game, i know).


I like third option, any holes?

[BlakAdder]

Only thing is, what if the Hider actually targets scum and the Doc protects him? Neither of them would know what happened, and the Mafioso would be confirmed innocent.

[Incognito]

Vote Count #2 of Day 1

Korts (2) <-~ roflcopter, popsofctown
Gamma (2) <-~ Netlava, Badguy
sekinj (1) <-~ Caboose
GIEFF (1) <-~ ryan2754
Netlava (1) <-~ Korts
ryan2754 (1) <-~ EsoMonty
popsofctown (1) <-~ BlakAdder

Not Voting (3) <-~ sekinj, GIEFF, Gamma

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch!

[popsofctown]

I thought hider dies anyway in that scenario. Weak doc protects from NKs, not from hiding with mafia. . . ?

[roflcopter]

i was thinking that we should hypo claim who we would actually want to target if we have the role in question, rather than forcing the doc and hider to play suboptimally, but i need to read all this mechanical talk a little bit closer to see if someone came up with something really game breaking or not.

[GIEFF]

I would say, forbid a final hypoclaim setup that possibly double targets anyone, but don't require that everyone get covered. (both will probably happen anyway)

Yes, if we disallow double-targets, this also ensures that every player will be hypo-targeted each night.

I thought hider dies anyway in that scenario. Weak doc protects from NKs, not from hiding with mafia. . . ?

That looks right to me, based on Post 2.

Can you confirm, Incognito?

Or, here's a third option. Everyone hider hypoclaims different people. The entire town hypo doc claims whom we think is the most innocent. That way we confirm an innocent per night with the weak doc, but kind of make sure the more useful power role stays alive. The hider blazes a trail of innocents (and besides the weak docs') and hits a guilty eventually. In endgame, we hopefully have a weak doc protecting people from a large pool of innocents against N-1 mafia ( i should check how many mafia are in this game, i know).

I don't like this idea. We don't want the scum to have any control over how the doctor acts. But even more important is that we don't want the scum to know who the doc protects, which would effectively make him a hider, as he will never be able to use his protective role due to the scum never targeting the same player the doc targets. Also, what if we tell the doc to protect himself?

was thinking that we should hypo claim who we would actually want to target if we have the role in question, rather than forcing the doc and hider to play suboptimally, but i need to read all this mechanical talk a little bit closer to see if someone came up with something really game breaking or not.

A strategy doesn't need to be game-breaking to be good, does it? Why not read the "mechanical talk" to try to help optimize the town's chance of winning, no matter if it's game-breaking or not?

Shit! Forgot this game even existed. At this point, I'm fine this whole hypo-doc strategy and whatever, but guys, I'd rather not completely lose this entire day to metagame discussion.

Finding the best hypoclaim strategy seems to me to be just as important, if not more so, than finding the correct lynch on day 1, as it will effect all subsequent days to a large extent. Also, strategy discussion and scumhunting are not as mutually exclusive as you seem to be implying, as the scum have a disincentive to help find the optimal strategy, which may become apparent.

If you're really so eager to scumhunt and move the game along, then why has this post been your sole contribution thus far? If you don't want to "lose the day," then either help us figure out the best strategy, or put on your scum-hunting hat; don't complain about others not doing it for you.

FoS Gamma

Does anybody else have any thoughts on the best hypoclaiming strategy? The more people we have chiming in, the better. Consensus is important, too; these strategies won't work as intended if one or two people don't agree and so don't follow them; if you disagree with anything said, now is the best time to say so.

[Incognito]

I thought hider dies anyway in that scenario. Weak doc protects from NKs, not from hiding with mafia. . . ?

That looks right to me, based on Post 2.

Can you confirm, Incognito?

This is correct.

[EsoMonty]

I am new to the games here. I am interested in the meta talk, but my hangover is making it a little hard to concentrate on it. I am willing to do the method you guys find best. At the moment, I have no further comment.

I also think like Gamma that we shouldn't be focusing just on the Meta discussion.

[Badguy]

I'm all for the hypoclaim idea. A system where everyone protects and hides behind a different person seems like the best idea to me. I like this plan the best despite this not allowing the doc and hider to do what they think is best.

The order everyone claims in doesn't seem to make much of a difference. The only thing we could really do is have the most pro-town make their picks first and have the most suspicious pick last.

[Netlava]

Shit! Forgot this game even existed. At this point, I'm fine this whole hypo-doc strategy and whatever, but guys, I'd rather not

completely

lose this entire day to metagame discussion. There are still scum to lynch

and townies to mislynch

.

Eh, this post seems kinda fake. I agree that it is scummy.

[popsofctown]

What if we do half the hypo docs on the most townie person, half the docs on second most townie person? That covers the self protect issue, and makes it so the scum have to avoid killing the two best nightkills in town. As long as we keep the rule about not doing same person two nights in a row, we would get a good trail of innocents, without high risk of losing the weak doc, who we can use for actual random protection late game.

I've already explained why you needn't worry about mafia manipulation of the hypo claims. They're in the open, we can discuss them openly, i don't see how mafia can construe it. If mafia try to say "B is very innocent and would make a good target for half the hypo docs", you can say, "No, don't lie in broad day light, B has already claimed vanilla, hider, and weak doc today he's almost certainly scum"

[Netlava]

EBWOP: actually it's not distancing. I thought the scumteam was only two players, but since it's three, rofl-BA-Net seems more plausible derived from that.

Re-reading the thread, I just thought it strange that an experienced player would think the scumteam had only two players.

[Korts]

EBWOP: actually it's not distancing. I thought the scumteam was only two players, but since it's three, rofl-BA-Net seems more plausible derived from that.

Re-reading the thread, I just thought it strange that an experienced player would think the scumteam had only two players.

How is it strange, and how is it related to experience? I didn't remember that this is a 12 player game. Anyway, my point still stands, and I haven't gotten a reply yet. BlakAdder, why point out only pops' broken logic when it was pretty apparent he wasn't the only one?

[BlakAdder]

Because it was a random vote. I just picked pops because he pointed out the gambler's fallacy.

[popsofctown]

Gambler's fallacy is not a fallacy, it's full of win!

Revote: Korts

!!!

[Incognito]

sekinj has been prodded.

[Korts]

Gambler's fallacy is not a fallacy,

Please define fallacy. In iambic pentameter.

[Korts]

And anyway, it's in the godsdamn name of "gambler's fallacy"!

[Netlava]

How is it strange, and how is it related to experience? I didn't remember that this is a 12 player game.

Strange in that you could be lying about it. Related to experience in that almost all games of 12 have 3 scum, so expecting 2 is a bit strange. But I suppose it is explained by forgetting the number of players.

As for the hypo-plan, I think each person should hypo-claim a different person, changing every night.

[sekinj]

Asking for replacement

Replaced by BSG. - Incog-Mod.

[Caboose]

Shit! Forgot this game even existed. At this point, I'm fine this whole hypo-doc strategy and whatever, but guys, I'd rather not

completely

lose this entire day to metagame discussion. There are still scum to lynch

and townies to mislynch

.

Unvote
Vote: Gamma

[ryan2754]

Unvote

Vote: Gamma

as well

[Incognito]

sekinj has requested replacement. I'm looking.

Edit:

BSG replaces in for sekinj. Thanks, BSG!

[Korts]

unvote, vote: ryan

Opportunism, yay!

[Incognito]

Bumping vote count.