Mini #1007 (Game Over)

[gonnano]

I'll buy the PGO tactic.

Vote AGar

because of the REALLY strong push against Hoopla, and because when I expressed the viewpoint that Hoopla might not be scum, his response was to call my post a "weak chainsaw defense" (is that possible?) and to accuse me of being Hoopla's scumbuddy.

@ConfidAnon - any particular reason for voting me?

[Espeonage]

VOTECOUNT

4 -

Hoopla

- AGar, Vel-Rahn Koon, AlmasterGM, drmyshottyizsik (L-3)
1 -

drmyshottyizsik

- Zachrulez (L-6)
1 -

gonanno

- ConfidAnon (L-6)
1 -

AGar

- gonanno (L-6)

Not Voting - redtail896, Hoopla, Good and Honest, Elleran, Kid Know Nothing

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

[Hoopla]

So, I have a really dumb question that immediately popped into my mind upon reading you previous post Hoopla. Why did you unclaim?

Because the gambit had run it's course. Everyone has commented, and we now have a series of reactions to sift through all addressing the claim. When you've got differing reactions to same event, it is very simple to draw comparisons, as the variables are the same for everyone. The one thing we're looking for is the differing motivations.

[AlmasterGM]

Wait, but if you think shotty is the VI, then why do you want him shot? Do you think he's scum?

The point of VIs is that (without very extensive meta information that we don't have) you can't really tell and they are dangerous in lylo. So they die.

But that's a sideshow. The main course is this Hoopla PGO shenanigans.

I buy it. Not because of the breadcrumb, those are silly. I buy it because I thought Hoopla claiming PGO was illogical and Hoopla usually isn't, so it seemed out of character. If this catches scum, it'll be play of the month … and the obvious target for scum-catchage is AGar. Unfortunately, I'm not really sold on him being scum just because he strongly opposed the claim. He had a meta reason to do so, so it doesn't seem THAT odd that he would think Hoopla was lying.

Hmmmmm.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I'm not completely convinced, TBH. Hoopla's already shown that she was aware of AGar's potentially bringing up the PGO/miller game, why not also be aware of G&H bringing up 973 and planning for it?

I don't think we're going to get anything further out of discussing it though. And my previous point still stands - Hoopla needs to actually show some analysis or I'm going to remain unconvinced as to whether she is really Town or just scum pulling the greatest gambit of all time.

[ConfidAnon]

@ConfidAnon - any particular reason for voting me?

Wanted to see what would happen, to be honest. Discussion so far has focused on two players. While not neccessarily bad, I wanted to potentially bring someone else into the fray to see how people would react. You struck me as a little under the radar (I know it's not very far into the game), so I thought it would be interesting to see how others would react.

Also, I was getting a little bored of discussing the PGO claim, and if shotty is in fact a VI, things wouldn't be pretty.

And speaking of the PGO

claim

gambit . . . clever.

[AlmasterGM]

Wanted to see what would happen, to be honest. Discussion so far has focused on two players. While not neccessarily bad, I wanted to potentially bring someone else into the fray to see how people would react. You struck me as a little under the radar (I know it's not very far into the game), so I thought it would be interesting to see how others would react.

So, what sorts of "interesting" things happened because of your vote and what implications do they have?

[drmyshottyizsik]

drmyshottyizsik, isn't it funny that we're participating in two games at the same time?

OMG!!!! G & H!! Ok i'll be nice to you in this game and give you a chance, for your choice of style i don't feel hurts anyone at all in this game type. I'm happy you're here with me

[AlmasterGM]

drmyshottyizsik, isn't it funny that we're participating in two games at the same time?

OMG!!!! G & H!! Ok i'll be nice to you in this game and give you a chance, for your choice of style i don't feel hurts anyone at all in this game type. I'm happy you're here with me

Helllllllllllo buddying.

[AGar]

Vote AGar

because of the REALLY strong push against Hoopla, and because when I expressed the viewpoint that Hoopla might not be scum, his response was to call my post a "weak chainsaw defense" (is that possible?) and to accuse me of being Hoopla's scumbuddy.

If you'll learn to read, I didn't call your post expressing the viewpoint that Hoopla might not be scum the weak chainsaw. I addressed the fact that when you came in, you brought up something that was, in my mind, completely irrelevant due to a different set of circumstances and tried to pin that against me and my attack on Hoopla's claim.

Glad to see you're back at your regular "Anyone who accuses me of anything is scummy," ways.

UNVOTE:

As for Hoopla's gambit... I'm finding it really hard to not suggest Lynch All Liars. And before gonnano gets all excited thinking "OMG HE DID THIS LAST GAME TOO!!!!!1!1!1!!111ONEONEELEVENTYONE!!!!!", it's in my meta to push policy lynches when the opportunity arises regardless of alignment. Look at Mini 909, Newbie 863 and Newbie 965. Off of the top of my head, I pushed a policy lynch on Quagmire D1 for not reading his role PM in 909, I pushed a LALiars against Panacea in 863, and again, LALiars against DavidParker in 965. I do believe I was town in all three of those games.

The thing I don't like about Hoopla's gambit is that I don't feel Hoopla got as much reaction as she could have because of my attack on the meta. The breadcrumb makes sense, mainly because of the K sentence. Hoopla's smart enough to know that you won't attract a cop and a doctor with the same playstyle in most cases. But I feel like it was a misguided attempt, especially if she knew I was going to meet the claim head-on, as basically all discussion that followed revolved around whether this was a gambit as has been executed in the past or not.

With regards to drmyshottyizsik, I'm definitely in the "VI" crowd about him. Either that or maybe a jester. His play is erratic, nonsensical and just ridiculous, so I don't know 100% what to make of it other than VI at this point.

[ConfidAnon]

So, what sorts of "interesting" things happened because of your vote and what implications do they have?

Not really much of anything happened. No one except the recipient questioned it.

[Hoopla]

AGar is quite probably town. His fiery and definitive position on my claim certainly is not what I expect a typical scum mindset to be. He was quick to cite the game we were involved in together with my fakeclaim, and it's obvious this was a bias shaping his opinion on my claim. But when you look at the way he argues (especially early on page 2), you can definitely see a sense of paranoia, something he wouldn't be influenced by if he were scum. If he were scum, he would be exploiting my meta to slander my name (and in a sense, he

was

doing that), but this is a natural piece of information to debate with as both alignments. But I stress, the most important thing is the steadfast, definitive position he takes on my claim, which is a good indication of paranoia (a trait likelier to be town).

As scum, the instinctive way of playing is to keep options open, because boxing yourself into one mindset is a dangerous position to be in if it goes awry. You'll often see scum offer opinions on something with an air of flexibility, an air of wriggle room - some small, subtle spin on words or a less-than-whole commitment, so they can shift a different way on that view if necessary. The PGO is the perfect example of something that can be analysed for these tells. And the strongest tell I have unearthed is AGar's one-minded approach to my claim, which is in no way the way scum would deal with such an event. It is passionate and fiery, and reading his responses to my question about the town motivations, he doesn't give them due consideration, and though a mistake to make as townie, it's something scum would be careful to filter into an argument.

It's far likelier in my view, that scum have taken a mostly middling view of this event, and players like redtail, ConfidAnon and Elleran are those that tick that box mostly, for me. Almaster and Vel take neutral positions on the claim, but attack the meta arguments I debated with early on, and it feels strange how similar both their attacks were. Even though it is far too early to hunt scumpairs, I feel confident they aren't scum together, as it would be an odd scum play to espouse a shared view on something that has such a scope for varied opinions.

Though I will be accused of probabilistic reasoning, I think it is a reasonable guess to think I've one scum on my wagon, and it seems a tough pick to guess who, if any. The Shotty, late random vote on me was just bizarre, and reeks of VI, and usually I think I'm good at figuring out these characters, but I don't know. I think one of Vel/Almaster is likelier to be scum, and it's an avenue I want to pursue, because I've derived associative tells between them which gives more information if one flips scum.

I know this will be my first vote, so I can't criticise the way the game is going so far, but I think I must say it is about time everyone not voting to put one down. There have been enough significant events to hedge an opinion either way on someone. And most importantly, votes/wagons give vital information later in the game, so I urge all you non-voters to drop a vote in your next post.

Vote: Vel-Rahn Koon

I would love some support for this, by the way. I know my case makes logical jumps, but I actually feel good about this vote.

[Hoopla]

Off of the top of my head, I pushed a policy lynch on Quagmire D1 for not reading his role PM in 909

As did all three of the scum. We were all on that wagon, because policy lynches are hilariously bad for towns, and such safe places for scum votes.

[Elleran]

Hoopla, your tactic will undoubtedly attract townie power roles to you now that you unclaimed. I'm not so convinced your breadcrumb tactic. That could have been planned whether you were a town or scum.

[AGar]

Hoopla, I don't see the similarities in Vel's and Almaster's arguments. Vel attacked you for the holes he found in the logic of your defense against the meta argument, but Almaster basically latched on to my meta argument and ran with that.

I don't particularly like Almaster much at this point. Like I said, he latched onto my argument for his vote. Also, I dislike the notion of him directing a vig to waste their shot on drmyshottyizsik, when I feel the shot could be better used. I'd much rather use him as lynch-bait on an appropriate day, as I've seen the case come that there are appropriate days, and we'll probably have at least one day where it's ideal to lynch him pre-LYLO.

VOTE: AlmasterGM

EBWOPreview:

Hoopla - Yes and no. Policy lynches like the one for quag was epic fail on our part. LALurkers is a waste. LALiars, in the right situations, can benefit the town in the fact that, while it provides essentially no vote analysis or scumhunting in the leadup, you can a) eliminate a major source of confusion for the town and b) go back and find who might've pushed a

little

too hard for the policy lynch, especially if it doesn't fit the meta.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, your tactic will undoubtedly attract townie power roles to you now that you unclaimed. I'm not so convinced your breadcrumb tactic. That could have been planned whether you were a town or scum.

Sounds like scum trying to shoo the PR's into the corner on dear old Hoopla, so it stays off him. The point of the claim was to generate information in the day, you know, the only thing most of us townies can actually control.

Elleran, drop a vote on someone. Who are you most suspicious of?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, I don't see the similarities in Vel's and Almaster's arguments. Vel attacked you for the holes he found in the logic of your defense against the meta argument, but Almaster basically latched on to my meta argument and ran with that.

My point, I suppose I didn't eloquently sum up, was that they both had neutral reactions to the claim, but still found additional reasons to further the wagon. You're right though, they were different enough to warrant a proper distinction.

[redtail896]

Wait, but if you think shotty is the VI, then why do you want him shot? Do you think he's scum?

The point of VIs is that (without very extensive meta information that we don't have) you can't really tell and they are dangerous in lylo. So they die.

This is what gets me. In essence, he's saying that we should lynch shotty regardless of what we think of his alignment, simply because of this one incident and his inability to properly explain it. To that, I say no. If I think shotty is town, then **** it, I'm not voting for shotty, and as Vig I'm not shooting shotty. As for the initial Hoopla vote, basically your argument against Hoopla rests on the meta argument. Plus, there's this gem:

I buy it. Not because of the breadcrumb, those are silly. I buy it because I thought Hoopla claiming PGO was illogical and Hoopla usually isn't, so it seemed out of character.

The declarative statement, "The claim was illogical" has 2 problems: first of all, this is a very arguable point, and many would think it was logical. 2nd, why do you know think it was illogical, when earlier you said that you could understand the reasoning behind it.

In short, I agree with AGar.

VOTE: AlmasterGM

[Zachrulez]

I'm getting a town vibe from Vel.

Illogical does not necessarily equal scummy.

Plus, there's this gem:

I buy it. Not because of the breadcrumb, those are silly. I buy it because I thought Hoopla claiming PGO was illogical and Hoopla usually isn't, so it seemed out of character.

The declarative statement, "The claim was illogical" has 2 problems: first of all, this is a very arguable point, and many would think it was logical. 2nd, why do you know think it was illogical, when earlier you said that you could understand the reasoning behind it.

In short, I agree with AGar.

VOTE: AlmasterGM

Plus this.

I can get behind this wagon.

Vote:AlmasterGM

[Zachrulez]

Oh right...

Unvote: Vote:AlmasterGM

[drmyshottyizsik]

I'll buy the PGO tactic.

Vote AGar

because of the REALLY strong push against Hoopla, and because when I expressed the viewpoint that Hoopla might not be scum, his response was to call my post a "weak chainsaw defense" (is that possible?) and to accuse me of being Hoopla's scumbuddy.

@ConfidAnon - any particular reason for voting me?

Agreed
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Agar

[gonnano]

I disagree with Hoopla about scum stating things in a flexible way, because there is a definite town motivation to keeping an open mind.

[gonnano]

As for Hoopla's gambit... I'm finding it really hard to not suggest Lynch All Liars.

OMG HE DID THIS LAST GAME TOO!!!!!1!1!1!!111ONEONEELEVENTYONE!!!!!

Sorry, couldn't resist

[drmyshottyizsik]

As for Hoopla's gambit... I'm finding it really hard to not suggest Lynch All Liars.

OMG HE DID THIS LAST GAME TOO!!!!!1!1!1!!111ONEONEELEVENTYONE!!!!!

WOW!!!

[Elleran]

Hoopla, your tactic will undoubtedly attract townie power roles to you now that you unclaimed. I'm not so convinced your breadcrumb tactic. That could have been planned whether you were a town or scum.

Sounds like scum trying to shoo the PR's into the corner on dear old Hoopla, so it stays off him. The point of the claim was to generate information in the day, you know, the only thing most of us townies can actually control.

Elleran, drop a vote on someone. Who are you most suspicious of?

First, your explanation sounds like it exempts AGar from your suspicions. Because you and AGar have played a game (or more) together before, you guys can easily read each other's meta and understand each other's strategy without direct PM or communication.

Second, I support lynching liars. I cannot disagree on your point that your claim/unclaim has brought many valuable discussion into place. However, I do not want to risk having a suspicious character in any LyLo situation. I understand this is a far-in-the-future argument, but lynching early poses less risk than later.

Third and finally, I support gonnano in his opinion on town having flexible mindset as well. I always try to play with an open mind, considering all possibilities. Perhaps some town characters might be more closed and some scums to be open/flexible, you cannot possibly assume that that is the case for all players. Your overarching assumption thus ceases to be a logical point but an opinionated assertion.

Vote Hoopla