Mini 1752: Back to December (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 2.04

Aj The Epic (4) - Raskolnikov, Xtoxm, Elyse, OceanWind
Raskolnikov (2) - Alchemist21, Aj The Epic

Not Voting (3) - curiouskarmadog, LlamaFluff, Supreme Overlord

With 9 votes in play, it will take 5 to lynch.

The deadline is Tuesday, February 2, 2016, at 2:30 AM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2016-02-02 02:30:00).

[Raskolnikov]

Townreading Xtoxm, Eylse and Llama to varying extents. Alchemist is really stubborn tunneling town and his actions would be ridiculously bold from scum (and would screw him if his wagon on me actually went through).
I'm not sure about OW and CKD, and SO I was scumreading yesterday and hasn't changed much today.

What makes things difficult is that all 3 of SO OW and CKD were on similar positions with the TKoE wagon.
OW brought TKoE to L-1 then unvoted, SO then brought TkoE to L-1 and finally CKD hammered about an hour before the deadline. I expect a scum to late-hop on for towncred if it looks like the lynch will 100% go through on their scumbuddy. I think CKD looks good from the last minute hammer as I think scum might risk waiting that tiny bit of time (~1h?) for the chance of no lynch; OW and SO are looking worse from their involvement. Only one of them can actually be scum though, and I'm not sure how to narrow it down yet.

[OceanWind]

Townreading Xtoxm, Eylse and Llama to varying extents. Alchemist is really stubborn tunneling town and his actions would be ridiculously bold from scum (and would screw him if his wagon on me actually went through).
I'm not sure about OW and CKD, and SO I was scumreading yesterday and hasn't changed much today.

What makes things difficult is that all 3 of SO OW and CKD were on similar positions with the TKoE wagon.
OW brought TKoE to L-1 then unvoted, SO then brought TkoE to L-1 and finally CKD hammered about an hour before the deadline. I expect a scum to late-hop on for towncred if it looks like the lynch will 100% go through on their scumbuddy. I think CKD looks good from the last minute hammer as I think scum might risk waiting that tiny bit of time (~1h?) for the chance of no lynch; OW and SO are looking worse from their involvement. Only one of them can actually be scum though, and I'm not sure how to narrow it down yet.

You are looking at votes without reading what the momentum of the thread looks like.

1. The wagon on Llamafluff switched to TKoE only after I brought up the possibility of lynching him. It's not the position on the wagon that matters but how discussion evolved.
2. I unvoted because I was going to be there at deadline to hammer whereas other people may be asleep or not present. So, I had Supreme Overlord place his vote there so he could leave while I waited for the claim before hammering.
3. curiouskarmadog's last minute hammer was redundant. I already said I would hammer. Llamafluff also said it. There was no possibility of a no lynch.

I'm not sure how you could possibly come to these conclusions if you read the thread thoroughly. Please read it again and post your thoughts especially towards the end of D1.

[OceanWind]

Raskolnikov, read the thread very carefully from Post 378 onwards until the end of the day (Post 432) and let me know your updated thoughts.

Your analysis was extremely shallow and missing a lot of nuances and I want to check if it's coming simply from missing things because you didn't follow the thread.

[Raskolnikov]

My bad, I actually did just look at the votes themselves and the VCs. You do look better from the actual discussion and I'm leaning more to the others from it. I actually noticed in the reread the association between TkoE and SO feels a bit off? SO had TkoE in his reads as a 4th pick to lynch in 266 but focused on him for most of the post, and TkoE has SO as his vote earlier (who wasn't in danger of being lynched) and then unvoted and had him as strong townread "obv-town" soon after which was weird.
CKD on the other hand didn't interact with TkoE much until hammering him for not believing the claim, and TkoE said almost nothing about CKD either. Ugh. I really just want it to be tomorrow already so we can figure something out via the massclaim.

[curiouskarmadog]

omg
still on phone. now with snow coming, worked is slammed.
i realize this is sounding like a broken record. most of my reads have been gut.
was right when I called tkoe out for "scum do something scummy comment". pretty sure i am right about AJ and OW.

at any rate. I also realize I could be a distraction.

vote AJ

yeah yeah, i get I didnt get to answer anything. but really i doubt anything I say will sway OW. he is either scum or tunneling.

not going to have time to really post anything anytime soon.

I hope by me hammering the game is over.

or

I am killed tonight (doubtful).

or

I am investigated and vindicated as town (hopeful)

or

OW is investigated and proven to be scum (fuck that would be wonderful).

at any rate. let the trolling begin.

[OceanWind]

First off, curiouskarmadog better hang for that hammer no matter what Aj The Epic flips especially if a power role is killed tonight. We were discussing the possibility of a mass-claim and hadn't made a decision yet and he cuts off conversation

in a similar way

he did D1.

Him pretending as if he was "right" about TKoE stretches credibility. He made a passing comment in Post 257 that he never followed up on and suddenly hammered out of nowhere when I was trying to get additional information out of TKoE AND two intents to hammer had already been posted so it seems more like a desire to be on the wagon.

His continued insistence that I'm mafia while ignoring the big picture of what happened yesterday around the TKoE lynch is the most compelling evidence against him. A great tool I use to figure out mafia: ridiculous hard-headedness. I wasn't obvtown at the beginning of the game. Xtoxm suspected me. Alchemist probably had no read on me. But when I reacted in a town way, both of their reads evolved. When I helped swing the Llamafluff lynch to TKoE, many other people's reads evolved. Finally, when Raskolnikov suspected me and I pointed out what he missed, his read evolved. That's how I figured the first two were town and that Rask was probably town.

curiouskarmadog is not taking in information and processing it despite it being presented to him. He just ignored all the points I brought up and just continues pushing that I'm mafia. That's how I know he has no interest in actually reading me or figuring out the game.

@Raskolnikov -

considering we didn't massclaim, I suggest protecting obvtown that's also on top of the game like Xtoxm.

[OceanWind]

he is either scum or tunneling.

This part is inaccurate as I've given curiouskarmadog multiple chances to change my mind. I told him

exactly

what to do if he was town to show me that he's indeed town and that is to answer my questions. All he was able to say was "gut" regarding his Xtoxm vote and no answer as to his initial vote on me. He's not taking the chances I'm giving him and instead complaining that I'm tunneling.

He's trying to put up an act of "let me tunnel on obvious town, people will think I actually believe what I'm saying and might dismiss the argument as TvT and no one's going to follow the details." I hope that in this playerlist, people are thorough enough to go through everything that we've said and lynch curiouskarmadog tomorrow.

Scum who aren't very skilled have a hard time organically changing their reads. curiouskarmadog fits that mold perfectly. He doesn't know where else to attack so he sticks with his D1 read despite all evidence to the contrary.

I probably won't get killed because that'll point a shining light on curiouskarmadog. Besides killing me means he has to fake new reads.

However,

if by some chance I do get killed tonight, please look into curiouskarmadog, don't let him get away.

[Equinox]

Vote Count 2.05

Aj The Epic (5) - Raskolnikov, Xtoxm, Elyse, OceanWind, curiouskarmadog
Raskolnikov (2) - Alchemist21, Aj The Epic

Not Voting (2) - LlamaFluff, Supreme Overlord

With 9 votes in play, it will take 5 to lynch.

The deadline is Tuesday, February 2, 2016, at 2:30 AM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2016-02-02 02:30:00).

---

Flavor goes here... at some point.

Aj The Epic,

mafia goon

, was lynched on Day 2!

A win condition has been fulfilled!

Alchemist21,

town even-night tracker

; Raskolnikov,

town bodyguard

; curiouskarmadog, Elyse, LlamaFluff, OceanWind, Supreme Overlord, and Xtoxm,

town vanillas

, survive and win the game for the town!

[Equinox]

Roles

Mafia Commuter: TKoE
Mafia Goon: Aj The Epic
Town Bodyguard: Raskolnikov
Town Even-Night Tracker: Alchemist21
Town Vanilla: curiouskarmadog
Town Vanilla: Elyse
Town Vanilla: LlamaFluff
Town Vanilla: Marquis
Town Vanilla:

MattP

Xtoxm
Town Vanilla: OceanWind
Town Vanilla: petroleumjelly
Town Vanilla: Supreme Overlord

Actions

Night 0

TKoE commutes (successful)
Raskolnikov guards no one (successful)
Aj The Epic kills Marquis (successful)
Alchemist21 tracks Supreme Overlord (successful, no target)

Night 1

Raskolnikov guards Aj The Epic (successful)
Aj The Epic kills petroleumjelly (successful)

Private Topics

Access to the mafia private topic will be granted only by permission of the respective users. The review private topic will be opened by N in due course.

Review: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=64435
Graveyard: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=64787
Mafia: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=64788

Role PMs

Spoiler:

Welcome to Mini 1752, XXX!

You are a

town vanilla

.

You have no special abilities beyond the right to vote.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and at least one member of the town remains standing.

The game thread is here. Please confirm by responding to this PM with your alignment and role.

Welcome to Mini 1752, Raskolnikov!

You are a

town bodyguard

.

Each Night, you may choose one player to guard. If that player is targeted with any action that Night that would result in his/her death, you will die in his/her place.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and at least one member of the town remains standing.

The game thread is here. Please confirm by responding to this PM with your alignment and role.

Welcome to Mini 1752, Alchemist21!

You are a

town even-night tracker

.

On each even-numbered Night (including Night 0), you may choose one player to track. If your action is successful, you will learn the target of any Night action that player has taken. If your action is unsuccessful for any reason, you will receive "No Result."

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and at least one member of the town remains standing.

The game thread is here. Please confirm by responding to this PM with your alignment and role.

Welcome to Mini 1752, Aj The Epic!

You are a

mafia goon

with

TKoE

, who is a

mafia commuter

.

You and your partner may talk in this private topic during the Day and Night phases. Each Night, you may collectively choose one player each Night to kill.

You win when all threats to the mafia have been eliminated, or when nothing can prevent such an occurrence, and at least one member of the mafia remains standing.

The game thread is here. Please confirm by responding to this PM with your alignment and role.

Welcome to Mini 1752, TKoE!

You are a

mafia commuter

with

Aj The Epic

, who is a

mafia goon

.

Each Night, you may choose to leave for that phase. If you are targeted with any action when this ability is activated, that action will fail.

You and your partner may talk in this private topic during the Day and Night phases. Each Night, you may collectively choose one player each Night to kill.

You win when all threats to the mafia have been eliminated, or when nothing can prevent such an occurrence, and at least one member of the mafia remains standing.

The game thread is here. Please confirm by responding to this PM with your alignment and role.

---

The idea behind this game was to ruin someone's day. This easily could have been an 11-player Day-start game. However, Night-start Normal games are not as common as they used to be, and, after petroleumjelly's Mini 1647, I thought I'd run one, as well. The original setup had a full tracker, which was town-sided; the reviewers recommended a change to either an X-shot bodyguard or a limited tracker, and I opted for the latter. Based on how this game played out, it still feels somewhat town-sided, but it could just be that the dominoes in this game happened to fall in favor of town.

To answer Supreme Overlord's inquiry about bodyguards and doctors in post 480: I would never have put both in the same game because I don't have an answer for it. :P

Thank you to everyone who played in the game, and special thanks to Xtoxm for replacing into the game. I'd also like to thank AxleGreaser and droog for offering to replace if a slot opened up.

Have at it.

[Raskolnikov]

I really expected a third scum this game.

[Raskolnikov]

I thought it was 12 players 3 scum and some strong power roles for town to balance and for night 1 fun stuff.

[Xtoxm]

Short and sweet. Thank you gentlemen.

It was especially fun being town with Ocean and Alchemist at the D1 deadline crunch.

[Xtoxm]

Llama isn't getting lynched today.

Move your vote.

Just shows what is possible. Neither of my primary interests had any votes when I replaced in, and I managed to get both to L-1 and one of them lynched in two days.

I don't think i've ever before exerted so much influence over town as I did in this game, or been as universally townread as I was. It was a unique and enjoyable experience.

[OceanWind]

Good game everyone. I enjoyed playing this one. I was pretty sure there was a third mafia so the endgame was a pleasant surprise. Especially liked petroleumjelly's analysis towards the end of D1 as it made me go back and look for interactions. Making a case using pre-flip associatives and winding up being right is fulfilling. Xtoxm was as accurate as usual and I'm glad we switched over from Llamafluff in the nick of time. Was going back and forth several times towards the end of D1. Found this to be an enjoyable playerlist in general. Hope to see many of guys again.

[OceanWind]

@Equinox -

could you explain the idea behind the setup numbers a bit more? Why eleven rather than thirteen or nine? At a glance, it seems like eleven players with two mafia is townsided by default. Typically, I see nine player games with two mafia so right away there's an extra lynch that the mafia need to get through. For most of the game, I was speculating about either a third mafia, or a serial killer, or a traitor. I'm also not sure if any scumteam could have gotten four mislynches but that's probably a result of this town being very competent.

[Elyse]

That was easy.

Thanks for modding, Equinox. Enjoyable game.

[Supreme Overlord]

Wow. I might give a few more thoughts later, but the question I have for you, Llama - Elyse's town slip was that she forgot scum had day talk? If I were scum with Matt, I'd coach him in our PT.

Great scum hunting, and props on looking town for most people. I was expecting there to be a third scum of some description...

Piggy back on the thanks for modding, too, Equinox!

[Alchemist21]

GG everyone! Disappointed I was wrong on Rask/AJ, and surprised there were only 2 scum in the game, but it was the most fun I've had in a game in a while.

[Aj The Epic]

I expected a third, too. Was a bit burnt out from my last scum game and made a fuckton more mistakes than I should've. I'm pretty disappointed with this game.

[OceanWind]

Can we see the mafia private topic?

[LlamaFluff]

I really expected a third scum this game.

I didn't. That's why I was pretty confident in Elyse being town because she publicly was talking about three scum, 12P setup night start if its power heavy is going to be deathly swingy (it still was, imagine guilty N0 from tracker). Light power two scum makes more sense from a balance perspective. Massclaim just needed to happen because if there was three scum, chances were we got the forced win from the massclaim. Either there was no scum RB or scum had quite a bit of power so town would clear off quite a few. Its why I didn't want to talk about it early either because it would make it obvious I was VT if I start calling for no power in the game.

Very impressed that Rask made the theoretically correct N0 move and didn't protect anyone either

[TKoE]

RIP

That went horribly
I have no issue letting town see the scum thread, wasn't much in it really.

[petroleumjelly]

Thanks for the game, all, and thanks for moderating, Equinox!

I think the set-up is fairly balanced. 9 v 2 (how this game will effectively start) is scum-sided without power. The Town Bodyguard does not really add 'power' to the game, but simply might preserve the life of a single player once in the game in exchange for the Bodyguard's life. It's best trait is that it might be believed as a claim. The only true 'power' was the Even-Night Tracker, which is

pretty

weak, all things being said. The Mafia Commuter does not do much (except potentially 'confirm itself' if Tracked). The math on players also gives the Mafia the option to No-Kill on a night while still only needing four total mislynches to win, which can be used to more convincingly make a fake-claim, add confusion, etc.

[curiouskarmadog]

Thanks for game.

Sorry for issues with posting and this phone. Was hoping I could still play this game without providing my normal amount of input. Still didn't do to bad was right about the things that seemed scummy about Aj and tkoe. But wrong about OW. This is life.