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Post Post #1875 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2016 1:49 pm

Post by Dierfire »

@Mhsmith0

Oh, that should be "two players" right? I'm discounting the situation in which you are Mafia for reasons that I've explained (I don't believe that game balance favors the presence of a Godfather, I was reading you as Town at least as strongly as the others even before you were cleared).
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Post Post #1876 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2016 2:42 pm

Post by Dierfire »

Anyway, here's my thought on the game if ToastyToast is Mafia.
Actually, I'm splitting into phases.
Spoiler: Knightmare
It means that Knightmare moved that vote early in the game () to the first wagon that was neither on a Mafia player nor started by a Mafia player (assuming that the Almost50 wagon was too weird for that kind of thing), which is potentially a move to split up the votes.
Boonskiies adds a vote to the wagon and they fight a bit over whether it's RVS (, among others). That argument could be an attempt to create distance, I suppose, but I can't see any specific reason that it's likely to be so.
Presumably Knightmare picks Lowell for his vote () because he thought that Lowell looked suspicious enough that he could park it there solely on the basis that he thought that one Mafia player would already be on his wagon (, , and so on).
In that case, Boonskiies was always planning to remove the vote (), and so the challenge afterward () was designed to express suspicion (not to give him a chance to explain, because Boonskiies does not do so when given a chance). Presumably he fails to follow it up because he doesn't actually want that interaction. Instead, he waits for a while and turns it into a Town read on the basis of activity ().
His statement that he wants Garmr's thoughts ( and the way that he follows it () would presumably be an attempt to create an interaction (is the lack of substance intentional?).
His would then be an attempt to line up lynches on Town players.

Do the actions of the other Mafia players support him being Mafia? The interactions all seem superficial, but otherwise I don't see any smoking gun.


Spoiler: ToastyToast
He comes in with some points against Boonskiies () and a vote there (), which is the first on the wagon. He stays pretty quiet until he calls Boonskiies "a lurker" (). It helps create some distance, because Boonskiies melts down after crossing votes ( first). At that point a small wagon had grown a bit on texcat without any Mafia players contributing, so I guess that the plan would have been to waste some time (, , , and then move on closer to the deadline?
After Boonskiies claims he does not remove his vote ()--because he thinks that the wagon is gone for good?
He doesn't interact much with Garmr after Boonskiies flips, instead expressing suspicion of Expedience (who was suspicious of Garmr) before dropping that suspicion () as the lynch approaches.
He expresses suspicion of mhsmith0 and texcat () with a voting analysis that doesn't make him or Garmr stand out.
After mhsmith0 brings up the statistical case, he does start expressing minor suspicion of Garmr () but doesn't get on the wagon, perhaps because he's setting up the game afterward (although he might also have been hoping that I'd remain suspicious enough of Lowell to push the lynch in that direction).
He came out pretty strongly against my lynch after Garmr was lynched and texcat was killed () and preferred Lowell, which would mean that he killed texcat for some reason other than casting suspicion on me.
Now he'd be avoiding committing to a vote because he'd be hoping to coast to victory.

Do the actions of the other Mafia players support this scenario? Boonskiies has a fairly exaggerated response, so I suppose that it would be an attempt to create distance. Garmr barely interacts with him at all, which I suppose would be an attempt to stay below the radar.

Also, obviously in this scenario all of the interactions with Sakura Hana and Riabi are genuine, so they really thought that they'd rather be on the Boonskiies wagon than touch Sakura Hana, they never killed the slot because they didn't think that the fight with Boonskiies cleared it, and so on.


Plausible: yes
Compelling: no

UNVOTE: TItus

I'll think about it more, I guess.
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Post Post #1877 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2016 3:10 pm

Post by Dierfire »

Both slots fought with Boonskiies, who had overwrought reactions to both slots. Both helped lynch Boonskiies.
Both slots had minimal interactions with Garmr and were not on that lynch.
Neither slot helped to lynch Expedience. Both claimed to be reading Expedience as Town, although ToastyToast was willing to vote there to achieve a lynch.
ToastyToast helped to lynch Lowell, and Sakura Hana helped to lynch Madonna.

I'm tossing coins here.
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Post Post #1878 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2016 3:12 pm

Post by Dierfire »

I mean, I guess that we could just run out the clock today, wait for Titus to vote for me tomorrow, and see whether that ends the game.
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Post Post #1879 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2016 5:17 pm

Post by FA_Q2 »

Votecount 6.1With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Dierfire (1):
Titus (L-2)
Titus (0):

mhsmith0 (0):

ToastyToast (0):



Not Voting (3):
ToastyToast, mhsmith0, Dierfire

The deadline is in
(expired on 2016-05-31 09:00:00)


NOTES:
None

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Post Post #1880 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2016 8:34 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

With only 8 hours left and people (presumably) going to be asleep, the clock will likely run out....
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Post Post #1881 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2016 8:38 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

yeah might as well make it official.
VOTE: no lynch
Let's get this shit done tomorrow.
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Post Post #1882 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2016 8:40 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

PS I ended up working late, so I didn't read. Sorry. I suck.

off the cuff I'd say

Towniest

TT
Dier
Titus

Wolfiest

But TT being the last wolf wouldn't shock me. So gl.
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Post Post #1883 (ISO) » Tue May 31, 2016 5:27 am

Post by ToastyToast »

On the off chance that I die, in actually starting to lean Dierfire

vote:no lynch
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Post Post #1884 (ISO) » Tue May 31, 2016 10:06 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

I'm just glad we're finally stringing up no lynch. That dude really had it coming :P
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Post Post #1885 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:06 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 733, Expedience wrote:
In post 732, Garmr wrote:
In post 727, Expedience wrote:VOTE: Garmr

I actually read the posts and it's just stuff like "if u were town u wld be more openminded!! where is town motivation??", and it's reachy and dumb.

I felt like Garmr was scum during n1 after Madonna was lynched from the way he was saying he would rather lynch Lowell based on not much, yet he still supported lynching Madonna (since it occured to me that both were probably town). And now like, I dunno, he sees an easier target (chilledtea) and suddenly drops his scumread on Lowell (who he had been tunneling all game)? To be completely fair I could see this coming from town, but it still makes me suspect him.

In he reads Sakura, knightmare and I all as town and I remember it throwing me off a bit, but I think it should've been something that made me look more intently at him. I read the post again and he calls me town while saying that my push on Sakura is bad, even the way that he says it sounds really concilatory.
So can you actually make a point as to how I am scum?

Disagreeing with a town read isn't scummy I do think your points on sakura were null and her overall behaviour reminded me of town at best you even ended up agreeing with me so wtf are you saying now you should have enough experience to know something so basic?
I think you were trying to manipulate me.

...
IMO, "Garmr was manipulating Exp to stop attacking random townie Sakura" makes a lot less sense than "Garmr was manipulating Exp to stop attacking his scum-buddy Sakura". I mean, buddying is a thing so it's not a smoking gun, but I think Garmr's posts make more sense if Sakura/Riabi/Titus slot was his buddy than if anyone else was. I'd ask you guys to re-read stuff tomorrow and figure out if you agree or not. GL.

PS I'm presuming it's still twilight and posting is OK since thread is unlocked and no mod announcement.
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SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #1886 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:34 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1146, Garmr wrote:If boon is scum I could see expedience being boons partner with the way he is pushing for sakura's lynch.
In post 1381, Garmr wrote:Ok then back

Deir is scum in my mind because of the way he handled boon. In post 1020 he suggest letting the claim sit and be examined latter then. Also I really don't like the fact he was one of the people willing to lynch sakura over boon in post If he was scum even through he would be losing a partner he would be removing a potential threat in the future and not be getting as much flack for trying to lynch another townie instead. He seems to be trying to subtly put the idea that boon may be town in sakura's head.
In post 1082, Dierfire wrote:
@Sakura

I think that you should fully claim your role and explain your reaction to the claim by Boonskiies. It's not as though it gives the Mafia more information than lynching you would, and I'm trying to assess the chance that you're both Town here.

anyway on to the next post that catch's my attention
In post 1112, Dierfire wrote:
@Almost50
In post 1105, Almost50 wrote:I'm not buying this town!boon though, so I'm going to cast my vote on him regardless at the end of my read up (which should be 5-10 minutes from now).
I'm fairly certain that this is an error. If Sakura is Mafia, then she needs to be lynched anyway. If she is Town, then presumably she is being truthful with her claim, and lynching her takes Boon with her. We've an even number of players, so the extra lynch is a good thing.
The only reason not to vote Sakura is believing that both Sakura and Boon are Town.

EDIT: Do you have a source for the use of Vengeful as an explicitly Normal role?
he continues to push here that we should be lynching sakura over boon but earlier he expressed that it's could be a town vs town this rubs me up the wrong way as he has shown no indication at this point that he thinks sakura is scum


Fuck in 1088 he says there's no good reason that sakura would be mafia and since his town reading boon skies why would he ever want to lynch sakura or boon in the first place. It doesn't make sense from a townie perspective. If he was town and he thought both boon and sakura were town then he wouldn't want sakura to be lynched at all and wipe out two potential power roles(yes i know boon flipped scum but we didn't know at this point he was scum only scum would know.)

I think after the vengeful claim he noticed chilled behavior and started to push on him to try and get a wagon onto him. In response to almost 50s counter claim he tries to doubt on it subtly (the bolded bit) cast doubt on it while also at the same time lecturing chilled. It's kinda feels like scum trying to lecture town.
In post 1237, Dierfire wrote:Why did you counter the claim, then?
In post 1240, Dierfire wrote:In your initial response to Boon's claim that I quoted above, and in several of your responses recently,
you seem to be saying that your plan was not to counter the claim because you thought that your role was more valuable concealed. Initially, your response was even to allow Boon to survive the day (in favor of lynching Garmr).
What has changed since then that you absolutely needed to convince Expedience and mhsmith0 that Boon is Mafia now, today?
In post 1392, Garmr wrote:
In post 1391, Dierfire wrote:I disagree that the case on me is compelling!
I believe that my should address most of the issues. I wasn't voting for Sakura Hana and I wasn't saying that we should lynch her--I was saying that we should lynch her
if we were having trouble deciding between her and Boonskiies, because lynching her would allow us to get both
.

@Sakura Hana
In post 1390, Sakura Hana wrote:Dierfire One main question i have is why was numbers more important than keeping the ammount of townies and more importantly a potential PR (even tho it was a gambit) alive for scum to NK instead of getting rid of it together with boons.
When I referred to the point about numbers, I meant that we wouldn't lose a lynch if one Town player and one Mafia player died. If we'd had an odd number of players, then a vengeful shot would have exhausted one of our lynches. It is true that I wasn't thinking ahead to the night phase in that hypothetical scenario, but I wasn't committing to that scenario anyway.
But the whole point was you were town reading both why would you want both boon and sakura dead as town. Also if you thought that was a good idea to lynch two town reads why didn't you want to vote sakura. Is it because a vengeful town can only shoot what's on their wagon?
"Lynching or pressuring sakura is bad, we shouldn't do that". Honestly it seems like a somewhat common theme with Garmr this game. Does Garmr go this far to buddy town when he's mafia? I've very little experience with him; do others know the answer to that?
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Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #1887 (ISO) » Wed Jun 01, 2016 12:36 pm

Post by FA_Q2 »



Town has failed to reach a decision. No lynch will occur.

Night ends in (expired on 2016-06-03 16:00:00)

Note, I will end night early if no one objects.

[/b]
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Post Post #1888 (ISO) » Thu Jun 02, 2016 4:49 pm

Post by FA_Q2 »



Night ends with one more townie down.
Day 7 ends in (expired on 2016-06-16 16:00:00)

[/b]


mhSmith0's RoleWelcome! You are a
Vanilla Townie
.

Abilities

You have your voice and your vote. Use them well.

Win Condition

You win when all threats to the Town have been eliminated.

Here is the game thread. Please confirm via PM with your role name and in thread by posting /confirm.


Votecount 7.0With 3 alive it takes 2 to lynch.

Dierfire (0):

Titus (0):

ToastyToast (0):



Not Voting (3):
ToastyToast, Titus, Dierfire

The deadline is in
(expired on 2016-06-16 16:00:00)


NOTES:
None

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Post Post #1889 (ISO) » Thu Jun 02, 2016 4:56 pm

Post by Titus »

Hi. Still think it's Dier. Not voting because lylo.
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Post Post #1890 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 3:45 pm

Post by Dierfire »

Are you waiting to vote while you read/think more, or are you waiting to hear from me?

I'll keep trying to solve the game, but I'm pessimistic about my ability to do so convincingly in the event that Titus is Town and ToastyToast is Mafia.
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Post Post #1891 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 4:40 pm

Post by Titus »

The latter and from Toastytoast.

Why would you act as if you couldn't scumhunt if Toasty Toast was mafia?
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Post Post #1892 (ISO) » Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:02 am

Post by ToastyToast »

Oh shot, game opened! Busy weekend but I will do some more association stuff soon
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Post Post #1893 (ISO) » Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:30 pm

Post by Dierfire »

I'm not saying that I'm unwilling to dig through the game yet again (or even multiple times). I'm saying that, having already done so multiple times without having an epiphany, I've no expectation of success.

Anyway, I shouldn't be lazy, so I'll continue to commit time for detailed readings. This is a busy weekend for me, but I expect to be able to take a long look tomorrow or Monday.
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Post Post #1894 (ISO) » Sat Jun 04, 2016 6:11 pm

Post by Titus »

VLA this weekend.

Urgent work matter.

Sorry I forgot to post in this one.
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Post Post #1895 (ISO) » Sun Jun 05, 2016 7:09 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

Really wish this game wasn't ending during like the two busiest weeks ever. So I've done some brief reviewing of Dierfire (going to do the same with Titus later). I think my biggest concern with him is the associations brought up between his slot and texcat. goodwill was going after tex in his last few posts (a jump from lowell). There were no scum wagons at the time, but the lowell wagon was going. Would scum have motive to keep Lowell around? probably. He also hard-defended boons and was going after chilled tea before that flip.

Sorry it was brief. Happy we have a decent amount of time as all be free from school after wednesday.
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Post Post #1896 (ISO) » Sun Jun 05, 2016 7:20 pm

Post by Titus »

Then we wait until then. I am trying to pound out work as well.
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Post Post #1897 (ISO) » Tue Jun 07, 2016 3:29 am

Post by Dierfire »

I was trying to see whether I could convince myself of a case on Titus on the grounds that she's still alive after so many people were strongly reading that slot as Town after the Boonskiies lynch, but ToastyToast hasn't had a vote since D1 and is on no lists in the polls by Almost50 (, ), so there's something of an implicit universal Town read there.
I'd like to go through Garmr's words there in more detail to see whether I can make anything meaningful.
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Post Post #1898 (ISO) » Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:01 am

Post by Titus »

Prod dodge...

Dierfire, if you're wanting to try and convince me TT is scum, you'll need to actually case him. Right now, my read says its you. You don't get to sit on the sidelines.
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Post Post #1899 (ISO) » Tue Jun 07, 2016 3:49 pm

Post by Dierfire »

Ha ha, I knew that already!
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