Mini Normal 1775 END!

[mhsmith0]

See 1738. Doesn't have final stuff from D5, but it's otherwise there in terms of key voting points (I think). I've greened myself as well given cop clear; I can try to undo that if you think it's helpful.

PS I also did examples with your slot and Dier slot as final mafia at 1747

[Titus]

Thank you. I will put my VCA in your format in a day or two.

[ToastyToast]

@Titus: Could you sum up your thoughts about Day 5? Namely, what did you think of the decision to lynch Lowell?

[Titus]

Meh will read later.

[Dierfire]

I haven't made any progress but I still anticipate meeting my deadline (actually I should be able to do it an hour earlier because I forgot to set the counter to EDT instead of EST).

TIME UNTIL DIER VOTES

(expired on 2016-05-29 12:00:00)

[mhsmith0]

Semi-prodge. Still leaning Titus, still need to re-read whole thread again.

[Titus]

Ok I looked at D3, and Dierfire got to L-1. His wagon was full of town and Dierfire then immediately threw out Lowell, who got lynched. I still don't get why Lowell was lynched at all after reading that. The NKs benefit him. The VCA points to him.

I'm just ready to fight this out at this point.

VOTE: Dierfire

[mhsmith0]

Why do the NK's benefit Dier in particular, and what specifically about VCA points to Dier?

[ToastyToast]

The only logic I can personally apply to the night kill choices is twofold:
1) Scum was targeting potential power roles, so people who were under the radar
2) Last remaining scum was hiding in the players deemed to be town, which would explain why both mhs and myself are still alive.

[Titus]

Why do the NK's benefit Dier in particular, and what specifically about VCA points to Dier?

Yeah based on the VCs, I am leaning Dierfire.

1) Toasty makes less sense as scum during 2.7 unless it's a planned bus.
2) The only time Dierfire voted scum was on the Garmr wagon which Garmr self hammered. That suggests the buddy is on the wagon.
[removed point 3 about 1801 since it's not VCA related]

Chilledtea was a PR kill. He died highlighting Boon trying to imply that SH was counterclaiming CT to save himself.
Almost50 died believing Smith could be scum (frame kill) + said Dierfire needed to talk more.
Texcat dies believing Dierfire needs to talk more.
H_A has to be excluded from NKA because of bodyguard likelihood.

[mhsmith0]

Texcat: all of her posts that mention Dier:

Toasty, Can you explain your town read of Dierfire for me?

CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.

I don't think a mafia would want to point out these statistics to town. This is just too pro town. I don't think either mhsmith0 nor Dierfire are mafia.

Doesn't that depend on whether Garmr is town or scum? Couldn't scum use numbers to try to get a town Garmr lynched?

A50: all of his posts that mention Dier:

I wanted to say the same thing except GLW has been replaced by dierfire.

OK, my bad. So DF needs to talk then.

Do you have a source for the use of Vengeful as an explicitly Normal role?

How about we ask the mod?

@Mod: Is "Vengeful TOWNIE" normal or not? Thank you.

As for the 1 for 1 trade, it is fine I guess.. except the scum would probably shoot her anyway, so that is even better for us. That and the fact she is very much willing to eat the rope to take Boons with her confirms her town alignment to me. Scum will NOT trade 1 on 1 even if it was for the claimed JK.

...
Then check this out:

Top 3 scum reads (in order): Boon, Lowell, Sayaka (now Maestro)
Top 3 town reads (in order): chilled, Sakura, Garmr
Other weaker town reads (in no particular order): GLW (now Dierfire), knight (now Toasty), texcat
Null: smith, Material Girl , Expedience

...
Now let's inspect the suspect lists provided THEN and compare them to the NOW:

Here are the lists provided by others. Everyone has their own suspects:
Boons, Lowell & Expedience (Almost)
texcat, Lowell & chilledtea (smith)
Garmr, texcat & Lowell (chilledtea)
chilledtea, Lowell & Boons (texcat)
chilledtea, Boons & Expedience (Garmr)
Sakura, Sakaya, texcat (Expedience)
texcat, chilled, Sakura, Sakaya (Boons)

...
Now check the new ones:
Expedience & Lowell (Almost)
Expedience, Garmr & Almost (smith)
Expedience, Lowell (texcat)
Expedience, Dier & Lowell (Garmr)
Garmr, Maestro, texcat & Almost (Expedience)
Expedience + Almost50 + texcat (Toasty)
Lowell, Garmr, & Almost, (Direfire)
...

I'm not sure yet. It does look compelling, and I wouldn't mind voting him, but Expedience is a priority IMHO. Then we decide who the 3rd scum is. (We only have two scum left, so it's an either/or between Lowell & Dier. I'm not too stubborn to see the possibility, despite the fact my reads on Boons and Expedience started off when they were fighting to derail the wagon on Lowell.)

Can you clarify any of this points to NK motive for Dier against either of them, much less both? I'm really not following your argument right now.

[FA_Q2]

Votecount 6.1

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Dierfire (1):

Titus (L-2)

Titus (0):

mhsmith0 (0):

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (3):

ToastyToast, mhsmith0, Dierfire

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-05-31 09:00:00)

NOTES:
None

[Titus]

Texcat wants Dierfire townreads explained. He dies.
964, Almost says Dierfire needs to talk. He dies.

Basically Dierfire is killing the people who are gradually starting to suspect him.

[mhsmith0]

Toasty, Can you explain your town read of Dierfire for me?

CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.

I don't think a mafia would want to point out these statistics to town. This is just too pro town. I don't think either mhsmith0 nor Dierfire are mafia.

Doesn't that depend on whether Garmr is town or scum? Couldn't scum use numbers to try to get a town Garmr lynched?

I wanted to say the same thing except GLW has been replaced by dierfire.

OK, my bad. So DF needs to talk then.

Do you have a source for the use of Vengeful as an explicitly Normal role?

How about we ask the mod?

@Mod: Is "Vengeful TOWNIE" normal or not? Thank you.

As for the 1 for 1 trade, it is fine I guess.. except the scum would probably shoot her anyway, so that is even better for us. That and the fact she is very much willing to eat the rope to take Boons with her confirms her town alignment to me. Scum will NOT trade 1 on 1 even if it was for the claimed JK.

Am I delusional?? Is it not as obvious as I think it is??? Expedience & Lowell are the remaining scum, and we have 6 players willing to lynch Expedience, and 5 willing to lynch Lowell. What's with this "I still doubt smith could be scum"? nonsense?!

And whoever still doubts me needs to start playing THIS game. I had preliminary town leans on chilled, Garmr & knight/Toasty as early as #83. I called chilled vote on Madonna a bad one in #152 & requested him to vote Lowell in #160. In #211 I started scum reading Boons and never stopped since.

IUn #310 I clearly stated chilled and Sakura were my top 2 town reads and in #311 I defended texcat when suspicion was growing about her playstyle.

Then check this out:

Top 3 scum reads (in order): Boon, Lowell, Sayaka (now Maestro)

Top 3 town reads (in order): chilled, Sakura, Garmr

Other weaker town reads (in no particular order): GLW (now Dierfire), knight (now Toasty), texcat

Null: smith, Material Girl , Expedience

In #395 I clearly pointed out how Boons is defending Lowell using bad logic, and in #395 I reassert the connection between the two.

In #428 I defended BOTH Madonna & texcat and started town reading smith, and -again- I called him town in #445.

In #452 I highlighted another Boons contradiction. It might be worth mentioning Boons was distancing with Exp as well (read #418 in full).

In #499 I made it clear I had come to the conclusion Boons & Expedience are Lowell's buddies. I still harboured some suspicion regarding Sayaka (Maestro now), Madonna & texcat but ONLY if one of the prime 3 flipped town.

If you check #517 You will clearly see why I ended up voting Madonna despite having more faith in my reads on the scum trio of Boons, Lowell & Expedience. I evidently did not "fully" town read Madonna, so when it appeared like we might be risking a no lynch I did it with a grain of salt. Let me quote myself again:

You don't vote someone you're genuinely town reading. Period. You may vote someone you're not too sure about if there's no other option or if your strong scum read is clearly not going to happen as a compromise, but "I'm town reading him but I'm still voting them" does look scummy.

In #526 you can find my case on Lowell (up to that point), but in #576 I gave in to the majority's will.

In #613 I restate the exact 3 suspects:

My top 3 scum candidates are Boonskiies, Lowell & Expedience. I would rather lynch either of the former two.

, and in In #673 I vote Lowell while pointing a finger on Expedience (again) and linking him with Lowell. The whole Boons thing from my PoV starting with him derailing the Lowell wagon as well). This was again outlined in In #674, and in In #675 I'm reasserting my town read on Toasty's slot.

In In #735 I ONCE AGAIN point out the Expedience-Lowell connection, and in In #749 I explained the Madonna mislynch and stated I was NOT going to do it again (i.e. I wasn't going to vote Sakura, clearly bc she was/is a strong town read for me).

At In #766 I point out how the D1 lynch was swiftly redirected off Lowell and unto Madonna, and in In #803 I pointed out Sakura's scummy BEHAVIOUR on the spot, but I implicitly maintained my town read on her.

Now let's inspect the suspect lists provided THEN and compare them to the NOW:

Here are the lists provided by others. Everyone has their own suspects:

Boons, Lowell & Expedience (Almost)
texcat, Lowell & chilledtea (smith)
Garmr, texcat & Lowell (chilledtea)
chilledtea, Lowell & Boons (texcat)
chilledtea, Boons & Expedience (Garmr)
Sakura, Sakaya, texcat (Expedience)
texcat, chilled, Sakura, Sakaya (Boons)

Mine is the exact same one. I lynched one and pursuing the same other 2.
Smith's 3 have changed completely and he didn't have Boons on the initial 3 and didn't vote him either <<== ALARMING
chilled lynched one, still has another, and has added a 3rd due to chilled NK.
Garmr also lynched one, still has one, and has added 2 instead of chilled.
Expedience had 3 not including either of the day lunch or the NK, and his updated list consists of 4 sharing only one name of his previous list <<== ALARMING
Boons list had chilled (flipped town), Sakura (obv!town), texcat (strong town) and Sakaya/Maestro (not a prime suspect of anyone else).

Sakura has yet to provide an updated list. Her's was "Expedicen+Boons+(Lowell?)" (from #833 or Exp/Lowell + texcat (from earlier: #808 & #809). I -of course- would count more on the most recent of the two.

In #946 I updated my read on the Sayaka/Maestro as well. That slot was no longer scum read by me (admittedly though it still is my weakest town read, and I would go there if either of Exp/Lowell flips town by some miracle).

Now if you check the "old" lists again you would see everybody had at least one of Boons/Lowell/Expedince, but neither Experdience nor Boons scum read eachother nor put Lowell in theirs.

Now check the new ones:
Expedience & Lowell (Almost)
Expedience, Garmr & Almost (smith)
Expedience, Lowell (texcat)
Expedience, Dier & Lowell (Garmr)
Garmr, Maestro, texcat & Almost (Expedience)
Expedience + Almost50 + texcat (Toasty)
Lowell, Garmr, & Almost, (Direfire)

Everybody has at least one of Expedience/Lowell but expedience doesn't have Lowell even after completely renovating his list.

All in all.. I'm begging you guys to pay more attention and connect the dots. I have other games to attend to, and I do have a life, but I do my best. We need to lynch Expedience today, and we can lash at eachother for the next 2 days with no problem. I'll let you all lynch me just for the fun of it. Or we can all vote Sakura also for the fun of it. We can lynch most everybody BUT Lowell, Maestro & smith in the next 2 days to keep it interested while the town goes into MyLo. Just please unite for this one last time.

I'm not sure yet. It does look compelling, and I wouldn't mind voting him, but Expedience is a priority IMHO. Then we decide who the 3rd scum is. (We only have two scum left, so it's an either/or between Lowell & Dier. I'm not too stubborn to see the possibility, despite the fact my reads on Boons and Expedience started off when they were fighting to derail the wagon on Lowell.)

Almost50 made what looks like a very offhand comment all the way back in D2, far before he was killed. That's an incredibly tenuous connection to Dier to justify NK motive IMO.

And Texcat was super strong on Lowell being mafia, to the point where a really obvious mafia strategy would be to stand back and essentially let them go at each other and be the last two mislynches.

tbh, in neither of these instances do I see any meaningful motive for Dier in particular to want either of them dead. Frankly, I'm pretty skeptical that this is a sincere read, Titus.

I'll re-read over the weekend, but for now FOS: Titus.

[mhsmith0]

My apologies for the above post; for some reason when I hit submit it copied in the quotes I'd been gathering from the previous set.

[Titus]

@Mrsmith, and maybe you think tenous is why you have been mislynching town instead of hitting scum. Dierfire as scum isn't a textbook kill the people who are suspecting me. He murders the people who support those to make those who suspect him look looney tunes. The people who wanted to actually discuss Dierfire died in a pattern is not just a coincidence. Scum don't want to be the focal point.

There's also the vote pattern pretty much clears Toasty Toast. So Dierfire is scum by PoE there too.

[mhsmith0]

FWIW, we've had five lynches, and two have been on mafia. IMO that's a pretty reasonable rate given that we've had virtually zero help from PR actions (one NK block through a jail, one cop clear of my slot, and that's it).

PS Can you walk through
1) how you think VCA clears TT (I think he's pretty clear as well but want to know why you think it)
2) how (or whether) you think VCA clears your slot

[mhsmith0]

Oh lord. I just realized Alones slot not only didn't bodyguard ct, but didn't even watch him n2. That's just horrific. NO WAY should d3 have been anything other than "hang whoever shot ct" day.

[Dierfire]

If Titus is committed to voting for me then eventually I will have to vote for her. However, I have concerns.
The VCA didn't seem unreasonable to me; it is true that I have not been accurate this game, and a Town player could reasonably be suspicious of me on that count. I do want to hear her thoughts on how ToastyToast is clear by 1019, because I'm not sure that the context supports it. The NKA theory is far-fetched, which I usually associate with Town players, but if Titus is Mafia here then it's a reasonable plan to pick a lynch (me) and then throw out various arguments of various strength.
My concern with ToastyToast is that I don't see him making much of an effort to differentiate between Titus and myself. If he's Mafia here, his plan to win is essentially to coast to victory, which is consistent with his actions here.

[Titus]

Maestro (0):
Almost50 (0):
Sakura Hana (2):

Boonskiies

,

Expedience
Lowell (1): texcat

mhsmith0 (0):

texcat (1): Maestro

Garmr (2):

Lowell, chilledtea

Boonskiies (3):

ToastyToast, Sakura Hana,

Garmr

Dierfire (0):
ToastyToast (0):
chilledtea (0):
Expedience (0):


Not Voting (3): Dierfire, mhsmith0, Almost50

The deadline is in (expired on 2016-04-05 12:00:00)

NOTES:
Maestro replaces Sayaka Maizono immediately.

I'm not buying two scum on the Boonskiies wagon when there's quite a few town options available.

[Titus]

VLA today. Under the weather

[Dierfire]

I believe that that VC comes after Boonskiies claimed a role and some Town players removed their votes from him.
I'm sorry that you're not feeling well. I hope that you feel better soon.

[mhsmith0]

@Titus: I dunno. that count was 1019, which happened as the air was leaking out the boon wagon and garmr was building up. Why do you think that was a particularly notable time for mafia to have avoided bunching onto Boon?

PS I also hope you feel better soon.

[Titus]

@Mrsmith, Even if that's so, why would scum be the last to leak and not leak onto me (Sakura).

[mhsmith0]

@Mrsmith, Even if that's so, why would scum be the last to leak and not leak onto me (Sakura).

My working theory is that it's because Sakura was the last mafia slot, and they basically decided that if Garmr was going to be the counter-wagon, then Boon needed to be sacrificed and the Boon-Sakura fight needed to completely swamp everything else going on on the board. If Sakura was mafia, then I think it all makes sense.

I'm trying to think of a different way that day holds together, knowing now that Boon/Garmr were mafia.

For instance, if it was ToastyToast, then maybe he was just early on the distancing/bussing process and Boon just screwed up the engagement.

Or if it was Dier, then he's just intentionally off the Boon wagon, presumably just for the sake of WIFOM'ing a "well the mafia would have been on Boon for the town credit" type process.

Either of those may make sense I guess, but the Sakura explanation makes a lot more sense IMO. Still need to re-read and re-think, but that's where I am.

Also, Riabi looked pretty independently wolfy to me, so that doens't really help either.