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Post Post #1900 (ISO) » Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:01 pm

Post by Dierfire »

Anyway, this is the post that I want to parse.
In post 1545, Garmr wrote:
In post 1544, mhsmith0 wrote:
In post 1520, Lowell wrote:In other news, toasty is town.
Riabi probably not
.
Why "probably not" for Riabi? Given that he inherited Sakura's position (her treatment of boon was insanely aggressive for bussing IMO), that seems like a surprising read.
I can agree with this. Sakura/Riabi slot is strongest town read.
The question is whether Garmr (and the last Mafia player) actually believe that the slot appears obviously Town. If they do, and the slot is actually Town, then it should probably have died earlier (at the very least, a kill on Almost50 should not have been a PR hunt because he was hinting at information that they should have known to be false).
So I'm trying to decide why Garmr says that.
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Post Post #1901 (ISO) » Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:47 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

What was the context for that? I'd say Sakura read was strong day 1, 2
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Post Post #1902 (ISO) » Tue Jun 07, 2016 5:05 pm

Post by Dierfire »

That's D4, when the wagon on Lowell is strong and the wagon on Garmr is just about to rise.
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Post Post #1903 (ISO) » Tue Jun 07, 2016 5:06 pm

Post by Dierfire »

Wait, this might be it!
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Post Post #1904 (ISO) » Tue Jun 07, 2016 5:12 pm

Post by Dierfire »

No, wait, ToastyToast is there too.

I was thinking:

Almost50 dies N3. This shouldn't have been an attempt to kill a PR, because his hint would have been recognized as bluffing by the Mafia, so one conceivable reason for his death is if they wanted to pin a lynch on mhsmith0--this might also explain his continued survival when many were reading him as Town).
The only vote that mhsmith0 picks up on D4 is Riabi.

The problem is that the reason given by Riabi () refers back to ToastyToast ().
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Post Post #1905 (ISO) » Tue Jun 07, 2016 5:21 pm

Post by Dierfire »

More on this tomorrow, I guess.
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Post Post #1906 (ISO) » Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:14 am

Post by Dierfire »

Mobile post: sorry, connectivity issues, back within 24 hours!
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Post Post #1907 (ISO) » Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:16 am

Post by Titus »

Hey, I am getting old and wrinkly. If you haven't "reached a conclusion" by Saturday, I am voting you. If Toasty is scum, gg to him.
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Post Post #1908 (ISO) » Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:22 am

Post by ToastyToast »

Thoughts on Titus slot (I know you can't answer to all these points because a lot of them are Sakura related):

Sakura voted my slot and got worried when people started to join the wagon. This suggests that they were either worried scum was capitalizing or that they would get the blame in the event of a mislynch. They were also pretty wishy-washy on Lowell and had an early FOS on Boon, but no vote. The indecision isn't a good sign.

They then thought Expedience/Lowell/Boons were the scums and had very little interaction with Garmr. The good sign, however, is that it shows Sakura had growing suspicions on Boons long before he imploded.
In post 896, Sakura Hana wrote:Toasty: Why do we have opposite reads regarding Almost and Expedience, i don't understand why anyone's townreading what he's doing, i don't get why ppl don't see what i'm seeing, and the only person that's actually been seeing what im seeing is Almost50 as shown in which is another reason for me to think he's town.
I also remember this being an odd exchange. The reason I disliked Almost was that I despise it when people try to form town blocks. They damage the town more than help them. I also dislike vote-pressuring that extends beyond a case, which is kind of what Sakura was doing to me here. I need to check Almost's reads now. If they had a mutual town read, the need to lynch Almost is smaller for Sakura. Obviously the "lynch for potential power role" thing is still in play.

Vengekill claim: was a gambit but was it necessary? Boon lynch was already picking up steam.

Generally scum teams will space out their buddies on a reads list. Sakura's 3 town reads were myself, almost50, mhsmith. Garmr was null (which is still a common place to put a scum buddy).

Riabi was irrelevant

Main thing we get from Titus is his Dier case. I understand the merit behind it.

Next steps: looking at boons/garmr's reads lists, re-reading why mhs was leaning Titus scum
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Post Post #1909 (ISO) » Thu Jun 09, 2016 7:00 pm

Post by Dierfire »

In post 1907, Titus wrote:Hey, I am getting old and wrinkly. If you haven't "reached a conclusion" by Saturday, I am voting you. If Toasty is scum, gg to him.
This is fair.
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Post Post #1910 (ISO) » Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:03 pm

Post by Dierfire »

Spoiler: Effort
So, I'm back on Garmr's . Why express a strong read on Riabi as Town there? If Garmr (and the other Mafia player) believe that the slot appears obviously Town, and it is, then it should have probably died before texcat (and possibly before Almost50, although it does look as though they were trying to get mhsmith0 lynched by killing Almost50). If they believe that it does not appear obviously Town, then I'd argue that it's likely to be Mafia (my thought is that Mafia players would be biased towards perceiving a Town player that falsely claimed a role in order to facilitate a Mafia lynch as difficult to lynch).
There's also this: at this point, the wagon on Garmr has not taken off, and an incorrect lynch there would have created MYLO, during which it would have been helpful for Garmr to be able to move either way on the slot (defend it as Town or act paranoid of such a strong read surviving).

Lastly, Boonskiies's tone in this post feels less staged and more like an attempt at persuasion. Given his other interactions, which were often theatrical and overwrought, I find this more likely to be legitimate.
In post 247, Boonskiies wrote:
In post 242, knightmare wrote:
In post 233, Boonskiies wrote:
In post 35, Boonskiies wrote:VOTE: Knight

Didn't feel like reading his last post. LOL

@chilled - Lel, this was obviously RVS, but k.
It really wasn't obvious RVS though.

I said as much to you back when it happened. The sequence of your posts doesn't make it apparent, so no, I don't think it's unreasonable to draw the conclusion that you were voting me for being defensive.
Regardless, even if it had been real, why would that have been bad, besides you just getting angry for being voted? Am I not supposed to try and sort you? It's not like I even tunnel fuck conf bias'd on you. In fact, I invited and town read you after. I don't even believe I was the front runner in pushing you.


Intent to vote Titus


That's what I've got. It's my best guess, but I won't pretend to be confident in it.
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Post Post #1911 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:38 am

Post by Titus »

VOTE: Dierfire

Dierfire claims he's doing research but does nothing towards determining Toasty's alignment. He just spoilers a post talking about how Garmr wagon didn't take off while ignoring he had an all town wagon.

He says my actions are fair, then immediately threatens me in lylo.
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You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin

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Post Post #1912 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:23 am

Post by Dierfire »

@ToastyToast


Into your hands I commend my spirit.

VOTE: Titus
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Post Post #1913 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:33 am

Post by ToastyToast »

Still here, still got time so I'm going to make use of it. If I have more questions I will post.
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Post Post #1914 (ISO) » Sun Jun 12, 2016 12:11 pm

Post by Dierfire »

I'm pleased to have guessed correctly.
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Post Post #1915 (ISO) » Sun Jun 12, 2016 9:12 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

Sorry for making you wait guys! I should have everything I wanted to go over finished tomorrow
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Post Post #1916 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:03 am

Post by ToastyToast »

UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Okay guys, I've read what I needed to. I get the garmr-sakura buddying but I just feel like that would've been a safe read for him to make. IF IM WRONG IM SORRY! I hate being the deciding vote in lylo.

vote:Dierfire
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Post Post #1917 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:16 pm

Post by FA_Q2 »

^and that is a wrap. Sorry Toasty but you guessed wrong - Dierfire was a VT and that means:

Scum win. Congrats Titus, Sakura, Garmr and Boon. Sorry town.

Opening threads in a bit.


Dierfire Role PMWelcome! You are a
Vanilla Townie
.

Abilities

You have your voice and your vote. Use them well.

Win Condition

You win when all threats to the Town have been eliminated.

Here is the game thread. Please confirm via PM with your role name and in thread by posting /confirm.
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Post Post #1918 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:17 pm

Post by Titus »

Gg.

We win.
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You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin

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VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.

All hail the Scum Empress!
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Post Post #1919 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:22 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Very well played Titus. Wolf team won a town sided setup, and you did what it took to finish the job.

I'm just happy I didn't lose BOTH games where I was a dead townie accurately pointing fingers at you :lol:
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #1920 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:28 pm

Post by FA_Q2 »

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Post Post #1921 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:29 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

On my end: shouldn't have gone along w the exp lynch, that one was terrible. Should have pushed harder for riabi on d5 instead of compromising on Lowell. Mistakes were made. On the whole I was pleased with my showing though, so *shrugs* *shakes fist at variance* *cries bitterly into pillow at winning streak getting cut off at just two, oh cruel world* :P
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #1922 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:29 pm

Post by FA_Q2 »

In post 1918, Titus wrote:Gg.

We win.
Yes, gj. I am surprised that you pulled that one off coming in so late and smith had built a decent case on you.
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Post Post #1923 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:44 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Ha! I knew that there was a "save garmr" push on day 2. Whoo smith!

Also I figured it was Sakura who killed chilled. Maestro basically threw the game on n2. Sorry but it's true.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #1924 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:45 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Also @faq: imo the setup really was pretty town sided with a lot of ways town could PR their way to the win. Then again I'm probably biased since I think most setups here are town sided lol.
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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