Reading DF's #2955 makes me more confident in the flip. As usual, I've tried to keep it readable, but given that this is for all the marbles I think it's important that I out reasoning in full.
I don't like DF's certainty on me being town using only what he listed.
#2955 points to
#2277 for the reasoning on me.
In post 2277, Dierfire wrote:I think that Prism is unlikely to be Mafia given the protracted conflict with Lil Uzi Vert. More powerful than his reasons for voting Lil Uzi Vert is the reaction that Lil Uzi Vert has to those reasons and the way that Prism follows up in conversation. In the quotes below, Prism is pursuing Lil Uzi Vert while Lil Uzi Vert appears to be evading Prism rather than engaging with him, which is an unusual pattern for Mafia partners.
I think his reasoning here for why me/LUV aren't partners is a good one, but given that someone
besides boring had to be scum at #2955, I really think this was worth more consideration. Any interaction is fakeable, especially in daystart, and given our current state I find it really difficult for any town to not be paranoid. The follow up:
In post 2955, Dierfire wrote:New this issue: I also find Prism an unlikely partner for boring due to the fact that Prism and boring both voted for Lil Uzi Vert throughout D2. As boring was a major wagon D1, it would not make much sense to me that Lil Uzi Vert would be selected as the target for a committed bus; rather I would read boring's vote as designed to create distance and I would expect that the lack of a significant wagon on boring D2 indicates that the Mafia were not attempting to sacrifice there.
is also really strange to me. I basically saved boring Day 3 by switching to Grendel after I reread in
#2545, and I backed off my early scumread of boring pretty early Day 1 (granted that LUV did try to piggyback off it). This is virtually impossible to miss given an ISO of me. The biggest reason I've had internally to be paranoid was that Dierfire townreading me here is strange given his spot on the block. This is a big leap on my end but I suspect it is because you wanted me as the second mislynch rather than the first.
Reading the reasoning on the boring/BlackVoid team I'm also unconvinced. I don't want to focus too much on the LUV portion as it's really speculative but LUV's vote on Shadow was WIFOM city, and if anything I'd imagine him throwing a vote on a different town if he was counting on an Eager mislynch. If Shadow was his partner he'd be the one setting up to go deep-so why bus him Day 2? boring/Shadow flips do a lot more to solidify him as town than an LUV flip did for either of them. I don't consider the "afraid to vote" part to be an active descriptor of someone who flipped his vote to Shadow's cc on a dime. More importantly than the stuff with LUV,
In post 2955, Dierfire wrote:Furthermore, I found that the reaction that Shadow_step had to seeing boring at L-1 (2401 and 2403, no hammer on boring and continues to push the nn30 lynch despite what appears to be a case against boring in 2400) makes Shadow_step more likely to be partners with boring and less likely to be partners with nn30. More recently, I note that boring and Shadow_step have been fighting (2727, 2734, 2846) but without voting in a way that resembles creating distance (for example, Shadow_step claimed to have found my VT claim most suspicious in 2636 and to have preferred to lynch boring in 2639, but kept a vote on nn30 throughout). In fact, Shadow_step never voted for boring, and boring votes Shadow_step in 2704 at a time when the lynch is unpopular (marked opposition from me in 2559, implosion in 2709, Zoronos in 2746, PenguinPower in 2762).
The only thing I really agree on this is about post #2401. The rest really don't seem that suspect to me, Shadow made it clear he thought one of me/boring was mafia but was more sure on nn30. All of this was plausible with Shadow town. Boring's vote on Shadow is basically inviting discussion on the subject of her/Shadow as partners which is the last thing she wants given leading wagons on DF/Grendel and the knowledge that she just barely dodged a lynch prior. Solo scum with deputy and jailer alive is disastrous. The traitor theory in #2955 was interesting but was voided when the game didn't end, and you haven't really given anything to replace that hole in your reasoning since.
I agree that the only major reason to townread Shadow_step in memory was the claim, but you said yourself the claim was sufficient/convincing beforehand. There's reason to doubt that but it feels like there's even more reason to doubt me/nn30, and in particular it bothers me that you've looked so much into casting boring's interactions with Shadow in a negative light but didn't catch the BIG redflag of me fucking up the Day 3 lynch which cost us potential autowin. Even I don't see the reason to have me as your strongest townread, at least not just from the reasons you've given.
I reread Shadow's Day 1 to make sure he really was crumbing ascetic and it definitely looks like it, #169 is the only questionable one I see. That would be a very strong coincidental focus on Eager early, unless he was hoping to just push him in general rather than cc'ing originally. I hate to be mean, especially after I've already made him replace out, but I don't think Shadow is capable of coming up with that cc on the fly as scum, even if he was hoping to do that general push. It seems a lot more expedient to just have boring do the cc rather than risk two, as Shadow himself was the one that said "there can only be one ascetic".
Ever since BlackVoid has replaced in he's played to his own detriment as scum. His townread on me was hasty and is something he will inevitably have to walk back in 3 way to win. It made little sense to give it when Implosion likely would have agreed on me/you going back to back. I don't necessarily agree with BV's reason for me being hard town, because I like to think I would have replaced out as mafia too, but even I have to agree I might not have and either way BV gave a townread that really wasn't to his benefit if he was scum.
You've admitted in post
#3086 to other problems with your theory but never really followed up with closing or reconciling it or others left. It really just reads like you've given up today, and sure I expect rhetoric like that as town too since we've all been set on your lynch, but I think the general disinterest in reconciliation of your reads is telling.
IN CONCLUSION, FRIENDS, FELLOW CITIZENS, READERS AND PLAYERS ALIKE OF ALL OF MINI NORMAL #1838IT'S HAMMER TIMEVOTE: Dierfire