Page 126 of 140

PostPosted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:44 pm
by Prism
Still reading and thinking.

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:55 am
by Prism
Reading DF's #2955 makes me more confident in the flip. As usual, I've tried to keep it readable, but given that this is for all the marbles I think it's important that I out reasoning in full.

I don't like DF's certainty on me being town using only what he listed. #2955 points to #2277 for the reasoning on me.
In post 2277, Dierfire wrote:I think that Prism is unlikely to be Mafia given the protracted conflict with Lil Uzi Vert. More powerful than his reasons for voting Lil Uzi Vert is the reaction that Lil Uzi Vert has to those reasons and the way that Prism follows up in conversation. In the quotes below, Prism is pursuing Lil Uzi Vert while Lil Uzi Vert appears to be evading Prism rather than engaging with him, which is an unusual pattern for Mafia partners.
I think his reasoning here for why me/LUV aren't partners is a good one, but given that someone besides boring had to be scum at #2955, I really think this was worth more consideration. Any interaction is fakeable, especially in daystart, and given our current state I find it really difficult for any town to not be paranoid. The follow up:
In post 2955, Dierfire wrote:New this issue: I also find Prism an unlikely partner for boring due to the fact that Prism and boring both voted for Lil Uzi Vert throughout D2. As boring was a major wagon D1, it would not make much sense to me that Lil Uzi Vert would be selected as the target for a committed bus; rather I would read boring's vote as designed to create distance and I would expect that the lack of a significant wagon on boring D2 indicates that the Mafia were not attempting to sacrifice there.
is also really strange to me. I basically saved boring Day 3 by switching to Grendel after I reread in #2545, and I backed off my early scumread of boring pretty early Day 1 (granted that LUV did try to piggyback off it). This is virtually impossible to miss given an ISO of me. The biggest reason I've had internally to be paranoid was that Dierfire townreading me here is strange given his spot on the block. This is a big leap on my end but I suspect it is because you wanted me as the second mislynch rather than the first.

Reading the reasoning on the boring/BlackVoid team I'm also unconvinced. I don't want to focus too much on the LUV portion as it's really speculative but LUV's vote on Shadow was WIFOM city, and if anything I'd imagine him throwing a vote on a different town if he was counting on an Eager mislynch. If Shadow was his partner he'd be the one setting up to go deep-so why bus him Day 2? boring/Shadow flips do a lot more to solidify him as town than an LUV flip did for either of them. I don't consider the "afraid to vote" part to be an active descriptor of someone who flipped his vote to Shadow's cc on a dime. More importantly than the stuff with LUV,
In post 2955, Dierfire wrote:Furthermore, I found that the reaction that Shadow_step had to seeing boring at L-1 (2401 and 2403, no hammer on boring and continues to push the nn30 lynch despite what appears to be a case against boring in 2400) makes Shadow_step more likely to be partners with boring and less likely to be partners with nn30. More recently, I note that boring and Shadow_step have been fighting (2727, 2734, 2846) but without voting in a way that resembles creating distance (for example, Shadow_step claimed to have found my VT claim most suspicious in 2636 and to have preferred to lynch boring in 2639, but kept a vote on nn30 throughout). In fact, Shadow_step never voted for boring, and boring votes Shadow_step in 2704 at a time when the lynch is unpopular (marked opposition from me in 2559, implosion in 2709, Zoronos in 2746, PenguinPower in 2762).

The only thing I really agree on this is about post #2401. The rest really don't seem that suspect to me, Shadow made it clear he thought one of me/boring was mafia but was more sure on nn30. All of this was plausible with Shadow town. Boring's vote on Shadow is basically inviting discussion on the subject of her/Shadow as partners which is the last thing she wants given leading wagons on DF/Grendel and the knowledge that she just barely dodged a lynch prior. Solo scum with deputy and jailer alive is disastrous. The traitor theory in #2955 was interesting but was voided when the game didn't end, and you haven't really given anything to replace that hole in your reasoning since.

I agree that the only major reason to townread Shadow_step in memory was the claim, but you said yourself the claim was sufficient/convincing beforehand. There's reason to doubt that but it feels like there's even more reason to doubt me/nn30, and in particular it bothers me that you've looked so much into casting boring's interactions with Shadow in a negative light but didn't catch the BIG redflag of me fucking up the Day 3 lynch which cost us potential autowin. Even I don't see the reason to have me as your strongest townread, at least not just from the reasons you've given.

I reread Shadow's Day 1 to make sure he really was crumbing ascetic and it definitely looks like it, #169 is the only questionable one I see. That would be a very strong coincidental focus on Eager early, unless he was hoping to just push him in general rather than cc'ing originally. I hate to be mean, especially after I've already made him replace out, but I don't think Shadow is capable of coming up with that cc on the fly as scum, even if he was hoping to do that general push. It seems a lot more expedient to just have boring do the cc rather than risk two, as Shadow himself was the one that said "there can only be one ascetic".

Ever since BlackVoid has replaced in he's played to his own detriment as scum. His townread on me was hasty and is something he will inevitably have to walk back in 3 way to win. It made little sense to give it when Implosion likely would have agreed on me/you going back to back. I don't necessarily agree with BV's reason for me being hard town, because I like to think I would have replaced out as mafia too, but even I have to agree I might not have and either way BV gave a townread that really wasn't to his benefit if he was scum.

You've admitted in post #3086 to other problems with your theory but never really followed up with closing or reconciling it or others left. It really just reads like you've given up today, and sure I expect rhetoric like that as town too since we've all been set on your lynch, but I think the general disinterest in reconciliation of your reads is telling.



VOTE: Dierfire

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:08 am
by Prism
Also jailer+cop/deputy was hella broken with the people who happened to get them, like one VT died at night and scum still nearly got autoloss. Gamma/Zoro were all super lynchable imo, and PP wasn't out of the question. Scum got FUCKED even if they make it to three way.

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:29 am
by Prism
Sweet heavenly mod in the sky, podoboq, you have been summoned. I, Prism, call you forth. Rise from your slumber, pick up the hammer of destiny, and flip it for all to see and witness its glory. Reveal thyself!

If this flips town I'm calling dibs on the first one to say "Fuck". If it doesn't this post never happened and I also don't look at explosions behind me.

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:38 am
by Prism
Looking at podo's history it looks like that won't happen for another 6-7 hours. In the meantime here's some 80s hits to jam to. Last post of the night, promise.

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:39 am
by Dierfire
I appreciate the effort that you put into this. I've many small objections, but for most the expedient of flipping Town will be sufficient.

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 2:30 am
by podoboq
Official Vote Count 5.06

Dierfire (3): nn30, implosion, Prism
BlackVoid (1): Dierfire

Not Voting (1): BlackVoid

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 09:00:00)

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 2:33 am
by podoboq
Dierfire, Vanilla Townie, was lynched Day 5.

It is now Night 5. Please PM all night actions to me by the deadline, or bold them in your associated private thread.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-11-30 03:34:00)

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:13 am
by podoboq
implosion, Vanilla Townie, died Night 5.

Day 6 begins

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-14 08:15:00)

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:14 am
by podoboq
Official Vote Count 6.00
LynchingWith 3 votes in play, it takes 2 to lynch.

Anybody (0):

Not Voting (3): BlackVoid, nn30, Prism

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-14 08:15:00)

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:46 am
by Prism
I called dibs, so "Fuck."

Jokes aside my attitude yesterday was clearly inappropriate so my apologies, I promise to take today deathly seriously. I'm working on a larger post that isn't finished yet due to time constraints, the tl;dr of what to expect from of it is that nn30 being god is now a real consideration so I'm doing a close read of his one scumgame and I might do the same for Shadow_step. My first inclination is to suspect BV over nn but this is liable to change given the results of my reread-nn30's votes, especially Day 1, and general ability to say the right things at the right time stick out to me as being less likely scumplay than Shadow fakeclaiming, despite my defense of BV in my last post yesterday.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:12 am
by nn30
In keeping with Dierfire's last wishes, I will likely be pushing BV today.

His 3122 was really bad. It came kind of out of nowhere (check his feelings towards Dier previous to making that post).

I don't like his phrasing of 'somewhat scummy.'

It feels like resignation to lynch, not whelp it must be Dier!

I think 3122 feels fake and makes BV scum for it.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:38 am
by BlackVoid
So, leaning towards it being nn30 but my townread on Prism is mostly based on Prism's replace out so I want to look at Prism's actual play before voting.

I've already gotten scumvibes from the way nn30 has played so far in the game. The sudden townread on me and push on Dierfire was pretty opportunistic. I think he wanted to get that Dierfire mislynch out of the way before pushing me. I had started going through nn30's ISO and even on D1, he was very aware of Boring being scum to the point where he already tying other people to Boring. More tomorrow.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:49 am
by Prism
@nn: For most of the game you've given a really hard townread on me for drawing attention to myself, specifically for interrogating the veracity of reads on me. I've readily admitted (I think) that this is something I do as scum as well. (For the record, the reason I do it as town is because it is the easiest thing for me to run through the bullshit detector, and encourages smaller townreads on me to solidify through further thought)

Can you expound a bit on:

1. How much of your desire to vote BV is based on this townread
2. Whether or not any other factors exist in your townread on me and if so what they are

P-Edit: BV's last post serves as a good example of what I mean-my attempt to replace out before cooling down is likely more alignment indicative than I would have liked it to be, but I've repeatedly challenged people all game not to toneread me or townread me for things that are pretty routine/simple to fake. The earlier I get people to dig deeper and double down, the better, both for getting a read on them and for getting townreads on me that aren't easily walked back in LyLo situations

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:07 am
by Prism
In post 3137, BlackVoid wrote:I had started going through nn30's ISO and even on D1, he was very aware of Boring being scum to the point where he already tying other people to Boring. More tomorrow.
My issue with this is that it requires nn trying to bus their Rolecop on Day 1. The possibility of a second scum PR is still there but whatever it is it's not stronger than a Rolecop, especially with two town ascetics already claimed early Day 1.

I'll keep this in mind when I reread but ignoring my getting good vibes from the timing of certain nn posts, the boring vote Day 1 is my single biggest reason for townreading them. IIRC he voted Eager for like 30 minutes but I don't recall backlash being strong enough to justify a reversal (Surely he knew as scum what he was getting himself into). Only other explanation I could see for this if they're scum is that boring wasn't in as much danger as I remembered, but considering LUV offered himself on a platter for her that seems unlikely to be wrong to me.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:10 am
by Prism
Sorry, boring was neopolitan which is definitely weaker than a Rolecop, but the point still stands-it's an incredibly powerful role and I don't see nn bussing it Day 1, especially when LUV was obviously desperate to avoid it.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:10 am
by BlackVoid
There was a five person wagon on Boring D1. I don't think they were all town. I guess they could be but I'm not going to townread every one of them just for voting her. Odds are pretty high at least one scum was on that wagon.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:16 am
by BlackVoid
nn30 also never followed up by voting Boring D2 which he would have if he was town honestly believing in the case and push he made. But when Implosion continued to push Boring nn30 didn't offer support. He voted Gamma. Then he voted Penguin. This is odd because when I replaced in and pushed Boring, I remember him telling me that Boring was town because he didn't think she would bus LUV. But LUV flipped at the end of D2 and there's no real explanation for why he didn't continue pushing Boring on D2.

I agree Boring was a more valuable role but I think roles play a small role in deciding whether scum want to bus or not. Much more important is play, and Boring was in general pretty scummy throughout the game.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:32 am
by nn30
BV is doing a lot of grasping to scum read me right now. His logic on the D1 Boring wagon doesnt make a whole lot of sense. I started that wagon myself...

@Prism - on mobile rn so I Can't really go in depth. Basically you've made earnest efforts to solve the game. I don't really and any opportunistic behavior from you. So as you say - unless you're God at a keyboard you're town. If you are scum I don't deserve to win this game.

Please look at 3122 again if you already haven't. It gave me the scummiest of a dummy feelings when I read it the first time. In fact...

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:34 am
by nn30
3122 is even worse because it didn't get followed by a vote (or an intent to hammer).

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:37 am
by BlackVoid
Nothing about 3122 was scummy except for the fact that it looked "surface-level-bad" in a way that scum can take advantage of.

I read through Dierfire. I thought there was the possibility he could be scum but nothing I felt strongly either way. With that kind of read, persuading every other player to lynch someone else would have been a monumental task since they were all confident it was Dierfire. They kind of needed Dierfire to flip before looking anywhere else. I decided not to fight the lynch and see what he flips. Hey, I might be wrong and maybe the game would end and there would be nothing else to worry about. If I thought he was strongly town, then I would have fought the lynch.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:35 am
by nn30
Hey BV, let's assume for a moment that we're actually scum reading one another in a town v town scenario. What's the best scum case you can find on Prism?

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:21 pm
by BlackVoid
I've considered that possibility. Right now, I'm going to finish my reading and then lay out the evidence pro and con for each before deciding where to vote so you'll get to make your case then if you think it's Prism.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:51 pm
by Prism
In post 3136, nn30 wrote:His 3122 was really bad. It came kind of out of nowhere (check his feelings towards Dier previous to making that post).
It seemed pretty consistent to me, rereading he made it clear that he wasn't sure between you and Dierfire. It's an obligatory post to make as scum but it also follows naturally from his prior statements as town.

Right now I'm mulling over the issue of:
In post 2899, BlackVoid wrote:I was scumreading Prism all the way up until he said he was going to replace out. I don't think scum would ever do that out of frustration from being caught. It's just poor sportsmanship especially if Shadow had called the scumteam. I get that this may be a controversial reason to have a read but Prism's almost replacing out pretty much confirms him as town for me. But I'm making a note to ISO him just to be sure.
In post 3137, BlackVoid wrote:my townread on Prism is mostly based on Prism's replace out so I want to look at Prism's actual play before voting.

This makes me a lot more wary of your intention behind townreading me through the end of yesterday into today. Specifically, you've said today that you needed to doublecheck my play to make sure it matches, but it looks like you've already done that prior and found reason to say it doesn't. You've given your reasoning and your list of reads prior to entering so I don't doubt that it was your legitimate read, but it seems really questionable to me to recognize I'm scummy to you, hit the hard override, then subsequently wonder if my outside play was scummy a week later. It seems like a really easy to just revert to a prior state of scumreading me using your original reasoning and claiming that it's stronger than you originally thought. The only thing scummy from BV so far to me is what I stated above so this 3 way is a lot more about either convincing me you're town or convincing me Shadow showed he was scum.

I get the reason for the original hard override and understand it, but it still doesn't sit right with me despite being rationally consistent. My defense of you yesterday was because I saw no real reason for you to give that townread on me, but your statements here give a very easy way to back out of it depending on the flow of the game.
In post 3143, nn30 wrote:@Prism - on mobile rn so I Can't really go in depth. Basically you've made earnest efforts to solve the game. I don't really and any opportunistic behavior from you. So as you say - unless you're God at a keyboard you're town. If you are scum I don't deserve to win this game.
I obviously get the intuition behind this but I have all the pieces of my own thought and you don't. This goes double when I regularly slimmed down posts to maximize readability. I don't really feel like it's helpful to ask for examples of which you think are earnest efforts because I think that's a test more of time than of skill as scum to come up with, but I do want something else, because it's been this intangible thing all game. I understand that since a lot of my reasoning on you has been the same, and two townreads never really doubting each other is a powerful thing, but a town and a scum doing it ends in a loss and really I'm just looking for something to assure me that you're not just reflecting my own reasoning back onto me.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:52 pm
by Prism
In post 3148, Prism wrote:The only thing scummy from BV so far to me is what I stated above so this 3 way is a lot more about either convincing me you're town or convincing me Shadow showed he was scum.
This was supposed to go at the very end of that post, directed at nn, rather than in the middle and directed at BV.