Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[massive]

Yes I agree that Flubber is probably a better bet- incidentally he's obviously given up. He's barely posted today choosing instead to allow culted and AJ to be his white knights. Please place your vote. if we get Flubber to 4 I think massive might move his.

So my activity dropped starting last Wednesday due to a head injury (If the mod allows I'll post. It's not horrible but gore is subjective), and around the time I got around to getting back here massive had claimed. I think it's reasonable to feel lost and discouraged when you've been wrong the entire game.

I'll admit I skim a lot of Aj's longer posts but I've myself in his scum list a couple times already.

VOTE: Kairal

I mean I'm a little disturbed that nothing about this rings out at you (Sorry for the head injury Flubber. Get well soon). His entire case on me is sheeping AJ- posts which he admits he didn't even fully read.

Well, for one, nothing in the two paragraphs in that post have anything to do with voting you. He's saying he's seen himself in AJ's scum list, he's just missing a verb.

[massive]

And that's correct, 1492 is really AJ's last complete scumlist post, and lists Flubber as a possible scum.

[Kairal]

I've explained this already but I got into a little bussing competition with Aj over it. he was scum reading me and Flubber, I was scum reading him and Flubber. If town you should be perfectly ok with having a scum bus their own teammate. However he blinked- When given the chance to take out a top scum read he chose to reject it. It's pretty obvious to me that he doesn't want Flubber lynched.

[Kairal]

Anyway it's 2 on 2 culted v Flubber right now. I'd prefer Flubber but maybe if I go culted we can get some momentum going here. Less than 24 hours left now.

VOTE: culted

[Kairal]

Iai I am interested as to why you see Karai as town because right now they are literally saying stuff discrediting it and then play plopping a vote out with all of 0 commitment.

With threats of self hammering I withold my vote until blackstar catches up

Also I am VT

Anyway since as you note that post doesn't include a reason to vote me here's the one that does I guess? Very compelling. Incidentally if I were town being buddied bu culted as hard as Flubber is I'd be pretty suspicious. Lets see what Flubber has to say about it.

[BlackVoid]

I'm going to pause at the end of page 62 and pick this back up in an hour or so. That's a lot of posts to digest. But I've skimmed the rest of the game so here's a VC.

Unofficial Vote Count

0 - Dierfire:
0 - BlackVoid:
4 - Kairal: Massive, Culted, Aj The Epic, Flubbernugget
1 - Flubbernugget: Naomi-Tan
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Naomi-Tan:
3 - culted: I Am Innocent, BlackVoid, Kairal
0 - massive:
0 - Aj The Epic:

Not voting: Dierfire

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2017-01-13 15:30:00)

It looks to me like the entirety of the scumteam is likely voting for Kairal.

@Massive - Let's talk about Kairal. I really don't think he's flipping scum here. He reminds of another player (nn30 in this game) who posted an obscene amount of content, made cases on nearly every player in the game, changed his mind on a dime everytime someone made a new argument. I just don't think it's possible for a scum player to play that way. Kairal is a relative newbie but has more posts than any other player in the game. He's spent a ridiculous amount of time trying to gamesolve, trying to figure out the scumteam and what possibilities work. AJ and others are using his inconsistencies as a reason to attack him. But town are often inconsistent and contradict themselves when they look at multiple different possibilities. If you look beyond the minutae and at the big picture, it's incredibly unlikely Kairal is scum here.

Let me know if you'd be willing to go with any of Culted, AJ, Flubber, and Dierfire and in what order you suspect each of them. My preference today would likely be Culted or AJ but once I catch up on the remaining pages, I'll outline who I suspect most. Just want to see where your head is at right now.

I'm sure IAI and Kairal wouldn't mind lynching AJ so we can agree on that, I'm sure we can achieve a lynch there too.

[Kairal]

culted, full list of reads please.

Maybe it's because I think the way you're looking at voting patterns is complete crap but I'm not impressed by you dismissing culted as throwing shade.

Yep he doesn't ever mention it. He is willing to defend culted here though- again based on basically nothing.

[Kairal]

Yeah I'm ok with AJ too. However time really is running low- 20 hours left I believe.

[BlackVoid]

Finally caught up. Wow, it took me a week.

@IAI

, I'm leaning towards going for AJ first. I think given his activity level, I'm leaning towards him being a bigger threat. I don't know if I'll be alive tomorrow so it would be nice to flip him today. Let me know whether you are more confident in Culted or AJ. Kairal said he's okay with AJ as well so either way, we've got three votes and need two more.

Updating this as I didn't see massive's unvote.

Unofficial Vote Count

0 - Dierfire:
0 - BlackVoid:
3 - Kairal: Culted, Aj The Epic, Flubbernugget
1 - Flubbernugget: Naomi-Tan
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Naomi-Tan:
3 - culted: I Am Innocent, BlackVoid, Kairal
0 - massive:
0 - Aj The Epic:

Not voting: Dierfire, Massive

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2017-01-13 15:30:00)

[BlackVoid]

Why not culted?

Cause there on less than half peoples red read. while flubbs just seems to be on partially everyone's.

Why does that matter though? Me, IAI, and Kairal all have Culted and AJ as potential scum. With your vote on either of them, it'll be 4/5 and we'd just need one other player to hammer.

[Kairal]

It is true that AJ is the biggest threat on the team.

[Kairal]

In all honesty I need your vote BV. So I'll vote whichever of the three you want.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah well you, me, and IAI are on the same page. We just need two more people to agree with us.

[BlackVoid]

Going ISO and try and figure out which of Culted, AJ, Flubber, and Dierfire are town.

[Aj The Epic]

Unfortunately I'll not be here the rest of the day. I'm going to have to VLA through the weekend as I'm training new staff at my job.

VLA until this 15th. Sorry.

I've skimmed the last few posts badly enough to not have any real closing thoughts other than you got my claims if you swing that direction.

[BlackVoid]

Went through Culted's ISO. Pretty confident he's scum. The measured activity level - only showing up at strategic times, the bad pushes on lots of flipped town (Newman, Io, Jin), people I know to be town (Mini Death Star), or people I'm townreading (IAI, Kairal). Townreads on likely scum candidates (Flubber, AJ, Dierfire). How in the world is AJ "obvtown?" Didn't really see any interactions that don't look partner-y from my group of four but I'm leaning towards him being scum with AJ.

[Gamma Emerald]

mhsmith0 will be taking care of yall until Tuesday, as I'm going out of town

[Kairal]

Happy Birthday Gamma.

[BlackVoid]

mhsmith0 will be taking care of yall until Tuesday, as I'm going out of town

Please give him the rolelist and all info about the game so he can do the flip, process night actions, and if necessary, start the next day. If possible, you should be giving him the ability to lock the thread as well but if not, I'm sure we can work on an honor system of nobody posting during the night. But in either case, him having complete info about the game would be great.

[BlackVoid]

Read through Dierfire's ISO. If there's one town among my group of four, it's probably Dierfire. I don't understand the townread on AJ and it's based on nebulous stuff like attention to detail but I can see why he'd have culted and dierfire as town, and I like that he eventually started suspecting both of them. I suppose we shouldn't rule out the possibility of bussing especially when he has Kairal - the likeliest lynch - also in his scumreads. But I think his checking people's meta is townish on a perfunctory level. Not that scum can't do it, I just see town doing it more and on average, town work harder at developing reads. So, Dierfire's probably the one I don't want to lynch today. Going to go over Flubber next.

[I Am Innocent]

Went through Culted's ISO. Pretty confident he's scum. The measured activity level - only showing up at strategic times, the bad pushes on lots of flipped town (Newman, Io, Jin), people I know to be town (Mini Death Star), or people I'm townreading (IAI, Kairal). Townreads on likely scum candidates (Flubber, AJ, Dierfire). How in the world is AJ "obvtown?" Didn't really see any interactions that don't look partner-y from my group of four but I'm leaning towards him being scum with AJ.

Yeah this is where I'm at too. I'd lean dier over flubber but hence why I don't want to waste the mislynch.

[Naomi-Tan]

Okay I think cultured is town however, I have intent to hammer to prevent a no lynch. So, if you can get one more person on that wagon I'll hammer. if not I won't. but Im gonna wait as long as I can (until I go bed) before doing so :I

[I Am Innocent]

Dierfire, top 3 scum reads please?

I'd say massive, Flubbernugget, and...MiniDeathStar, maybe? The full list would look like this:

TOWN
---
Aj The Epic, I Am Innocent, CloudKicker* (need to follow through on reading Shadow_step more carefully as discussed with Aj The Epic)
---
Kairal, culted, MiniDeathStar
---
Flubbernugget, massive
---
MAFIA

I can flesh those out more later, but in brief: I think that 1025 from massive indicates a conclusion that was formed before the evidence (that post questions Kairal but includes a vote for Flubbernugget, and I don't see a reason why the argument doesn't apply to MiniDeathStar).

I'll have a much more thorough response within 48 hours.

Look at this list BV. Doesn't this list line up perfectly for scum team (dier, AJ, and culted).

I don't want this forgotten if culted and AJ do flip scum.

[BlackVoid]

Why? Reads-wise, Dierfire beats Flubber any day. Flubber's reads are pretty bad from what I remember and he made way too many bad pushes. If Dierfire is scum, he's playing very well and is being very thorough. I don't know if that's how he is as scum but I've liked quite a few of his posts.

I saw your point on his predecessor but I think that could be attributed to a lot of factors like him just being overwhelmed with this game and wanting to join a newbie game first.

In any case, Flubber isn't really my preferred lynch. It's AJ I'm considering lynching over Culted.

[BlackVoid]

@IAI and Naomi: what do you think about going for AJ?