Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Kairal]

Clearly you shouldn't have been so worried about me not explaining my votes.

Yeah I guess so. To be honest I am beyond done with this town. I just need one more vote and then I can leave you all to wallow in your own mess.

[Kairal]

I just don't understand how you don't all see AJ for being scum. My analysis indicated that he and Flubber were allies.

He was currently voting Flubber and town is currently so disorganized that we're struggling to get a lynch- so why was he voting Flubber? My theory was that he was just trying to distance and wouldn't be willing to go for a lynch. So I called him out for it. My theory was that now that his bus was caught out he'd no longer bother doing it- it won't give him any towncred. Note that he hypothesized that I was on a scum team with Flubber so he should have had no problem with me bussing in that case. I predicted he'd move his vote to me on some weakass vibe- lo and behold exactly what happened. I honestly don't know how much more obvious of a scumtell you guys could want

[Kairal]

Hmm unless culted is scum I don't have the votes to get a lynch without a bus. Aj is already voting Flubber.

Well lets play bussing wars - you think I'm on a team with Flubber and I think you're on a team with Flubber. Lets both vote him and see who blinks first.

VOTE: Flubber

Naomi, Flubber, you|massive

Seems like we're both fine with a flubber or Naomi vote. Well I think you're less likely to be on a team with Naomi so I'd prefer you to keep voting Flubber.

From your perspective if I were scum I'd be bussing either way right? So you should be fine with that.

Well that's a lot of words. Firstly: When I said Naomi was wrong about culted I meant that she claimed he had a scumread on Flubber. He doesn't

Secondly the reason I'm so confident about bussing is because I don't actually expect you to do it.

My guess was that you'd find a weak excuse to decide that I'm scum over Flubber. I suspect that you'll succeed in getting me lynched but in doing so it's going to be extremely clear to everyone that you aren't actually willing to lynch Flubber. They'll get both of you. No guarantee they'll get the last scum but hey 2 scum for 1 town is pretty good.

Before we start: I'm not saying you manipulated the results so much as manufactured them and that the method couldn't produce anything useful if it was able to produce anything at all.

So let me preface this continuation with the following note: The only way I see Kairal doing this as town is having these reads before hand and for whatever reason trying to justify them with handwaving as to not look completely out of place. It... doesn't make a lot of sense to me why he'd do it this way. Here's the thing: One of the major reasons I've townread Kairal for so long is his reads have been fluid, have had natural progression and have made sense, even if they're a bit weak or somewhat waffled (kairal gets talked out of a lot of shit that he really shouldn't...). Especially since kairal wouldn't have a read jump on flubber if it were predetermined. Ergo read the rest of this post with kairal!scum as the control.

My biggest question is why does Kairal keep flubber's read scum after this? We know the two options: Bus, Mislynch. I think bus can make sense here but mislynch lends to a more advantageous scum motive. Kairal scumreads both me and Naomi. At this point, had he decided, he could've convinced massive/myself rather easily to buy into Naomi before Flubber. That scenario assumes Naomi is town to pass the lynch off in the first place. If Flubber was scum with Kairal, Kairal could attempt to drag him into lylo. Course... it doesn't do much, I think Kairal/Flubber would be the next two lynches.

It'd actually have been more natural for Kairal to continue a scum read of flubber from beginning to end in a hard bus. Be adamant about the lynch, gain the most town points. Doing this casts a ton of suspicion on Kairal. And really, removing Culted/IAI/Massive from her scumread list is a lot easier than going through this theatrical display. If Flubber was truly scum, this is a hard lynch to drop under any circumstance for a scum partner. Yet there are, as stated above, ways to do it. If he's town, Kairal could fumble on it, be insecure and not look super gung-ho on the lynch going into lylo for two lynches in a row that just look strange.

The drop of culted as a scum read in and of itself isn't awful. Well. Depends on your definition. Culted had been pressuring kairal pretty hard recently, and IaI, one of Kairal's other beginning scum reads, was/is pressing culted and it seems those two probably don't share an alignment. Had Kairal stated one of the two to be scum, it makes more sense. Picking a side that he believes is probably more useful to the town because it's an opinion and it's someone arguing for/against what's happening. Instead, from the looks of things, Kairal is seeing the entire thing as TvT. The piece of this that's important is culted had started to slip into the null area for a lot of people but IaI so it'd be pretty easy to bust out an easy town read. Is it possible to town read culted? Sure, but I think it's pertinent in 'reaccessing' reads to at least address IaI's point on that. In a way, this read change both follows Kairal's trend of being incredibly easy to persuade but also breaks the mold by not having really put a lot of consideration into it (as I'd argue the entire theory followed suit).

P-edit: Even with it being a response about culted's reads, it doesn't change the fact that culted has been completely dropped from Kairal's scum reads.

As far as I know, Naomi wasn't a strong scum read of Culted prior to this. I've mentioned this is odd that Kairal scumreads both Naomi and I (since we've done nothing but argue with me scumreading her, and my read on CK/Shadow/Naomi has been NAI to scum most of the game). Kairal amends it that he thinks it's TvS in 1467, but does little to explain why or who's the extra person. In fact, it's another written-in mislynch that he ADMITS to. A day away from Lylo he's giving himself a mislynch chance on a 50/50. Let's go back to Flubber being innocent for a moment. IF flubber is innocent, LYLO occurs tomorrow and scum have 3 of the 4 remaining. More than likely, they'd take that bet at a 50/50 between Naomi and I and pull ahead. Hell, they'd only need one person to vote me and then win it, so it's not really a 50/50.

More importantly, Kairal's done zilch for scumreading me all game and only started scumreading Naomi for the short period of time when Shadow came after her to naomi's replace in. And we're to believe off this method he's got a scumread strong enough to believe it on not even full VCA.

If I had to guess, Kairal's indication shows Culted scum, Naomi scum, himself scum. Naomi is biased on my own read of her but unless I'm going to read Dierfire as scum, who's basically unmentioned and a consistent town read of mine, there's not a lot that makes sense from this perspective. Flubber could be scum here and it could just be a poorly executed bus/someone that scum has determined to not live through lylo either. The one flaw is Shadow did toss some shade at Kairal, which doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense, though it wasn't followed by a case nor vote so it was just shade. But between this, the Jin incident and some inconsistencies we've seen from Kairal today, I think this is it.

Culted/Kairal/Naomi|Flubber.

VOTE: Kairal

Ultimately though regardless of the method I've landed exactly on who Aj and Naomi claim is their top scum read. Neither of you have any reason to complain about that... if you're town.

...No? My top scum read was Naomi going in. And DAMN RIGHT I have issues with how you got here.

[Kairal]

Like he has total word vomit on the vote post but it's all absolute garbage somehow hypothesizing that culted, who is currently tunneling me hard, is somehow my scum partner. You really couldn't think of a team that makes more sense? Like at least Dier isn't currently after me.

[Kairal]

Anyway for when I'm dead: the sequence of events is that I get lynched, the next two days are flubber and AJ and then you need to find the third scum. I was thinking it's culted- AJ suddenly deciding culted is scum could be a hint that he's trying to distance. On the other hand it could be him trying to implicate culted for my mislynch. So tomorrow he's all 'wow Kairal was so scummy I just had to go for it you know, but you know who pushed it really hard? Culted. So suspicious!'. I guess it's WIFOM. Good luck with working it out!

[Naomi-Tan]

Wow... Well I guess my little post did nothing :I You know what. I'm gonna just lie down as I don't wanna deal with this mess. Assume my reads unchanged.

[Naomi-Tan]

Wow... Well I guess my little post did nothing :I You know what. I'm gonna just lie down as I don't wanna deal with this mess. Assume my reads unchanged.

well don't assume but I havn't really read the bigger walls yet as I didn't like the base and it looks like just one calling red for bad logic and the other calling red for calling them red... its a whole lot of bleh. I'll read it in depth in a sec, but I doubt its really gonna do much to shift me if what I just wrote is true.

[Kairal]

Incidentally I assume we're all on the same page about scum being pretty good this game right? they've effectively gotten 3 mislynches without raising any real suspicion. Does that sound more likely to be me, the guy who's played all of 3 games or AJ the long term veteran? If I'm good enough to avoid any kind of detection for 2 days why do I throw that away on a Jin lynch that was bound to happen anyway? If I'm scum why even bother with the VCA? A method which as massive notes implicates me to a large degree?

[BlackVoid]

Up to page sixteen and I have a lot of time today so I should be caught up soon. In the meantime, if anyone could post a list of all the claims so we can see who else is unclaimed and speed up that process, that would be great so we don't rush. I also think having claims will help me read through people's early posts with that lens which could be helpful.

[Naomi-Tan]

Incidentally I assume we're all on the same page about scum being pretty good this game right? they've effectively gotten 3 mislynches without raising any real suspicion. Does that sound more likely to be me, the guy who's played all of 3 games or AJ the long term veteran? If I'm good enough to avoid any kind of detection for 2 days why do I throw that away on a Jin lynch that was bound to happen anyway? If I'm scum why even bother with the VCA? A method which as massive notes implicates me to a large degree?

I dobut there especiually good. just town has been pretty bad and super paranoid. If there is something there good at its talking others into questioning themselves. Like Flubs and massive have had lots of pressure multiple times this game then they say something or someone does something right near flip. it blows up and then miss lynch. Take Massive D1, All the day everyone was red reading them (same for flubs today) and then right at the end out of no where IO's misslynch comes right off the back of MDS claiming a slip. Though the base arugement wasn't great it was presented in a very convincing way and misslynch. Most of town is paranoid as you can see by how scattered the reads are. If we cannot create a cohesive unit and suspect EVERYONE then we're just gonna die.

You may be wondering how I'm so clear right now; Its cause i am not looking for the reds. I look for the greens Reds don't want to be noticed while greens don't care. Reds need to give off green traits but still need to focus on Misslynches. While greens will give off consistent and persistent tells. Kairal I want you to forget about links between players and pick out 4 people who you believe are Town due to the way they play, not poweroles. PR's can be faked interactions cannot be. Find your greens then check whats left. because if you find 4 greens. You have 4 people remaining. which gives you about a 75% chance of each being red.

Next consider which of your reads are red. look for connections and look for why they didn't make your green list. By the time you done this you should be having a clear understanding of who you feel is red and green. Its harder for red to convince you that your green reads are red and cause confusion and its harder for reds to hide from this POE style hunting.

[Kairal]

The reason that I'm so frustrated and that I needed a new method is because I have 0 town reads. 0.

Culted asked me to justify my IamI town read and I looked through his ISO and couldn't do it. He has a bad push on Dier. That's the best I have.

Dier on the other hand seemed like he was a low quantity poster but could at least be counted on for some serious analysis when he posted once in a blue moon. Then he brought out 'Naomi is scum because she mentioned 3 scum roles'. So much for that.

I had good vibes about Aj but here he is blatantly refusing to vote for his top scum read because I voted it.

culted started a weird and totally unjustified push on me and is weirdly super convinced Flubber is town. Incidentally he's never posted a single reason for that town read. None. He's absolutely certain about it though!

massive has played incredibly scummily for days- so guess who has the power role! The one person who can't be scum. My one confirmed ally is the guy who's voting me because I dared to question his blank voting day 1.

Well at least I have BV. I think he has more days in this game then he has posts.

Pretty sure Flubber is scum but even if he isn't he's given us nothing today except for a meltdown at massive. Which hey at least that I can relate to. Again the person most likely to be scum is the one who mirrors my feelings on the game. hooray.

That leaves you Naomi- the analysis suggests you are the second most likely candidate for scum.

Oh and people insist on calling me female. Despite me asking them at least four times not too. Frankly that's not even in the game. That's just weird and petty.

[massive]

massive has played incredibly scummily for days- so guess who has the power role! The one person who can't be scum. My one confirmed ally is the guy who's voting me because I dared to question his blank voting day 1.

See, this right here. You either are not reading my posts or are purposefully throwing shade my way, even in posts that say I AM TOWN. I do not care about you asking for vote reasons and to claim I am voting you over it is preposterous. I have given numerous reasons I think you are scum. You boiling it down to me being petty is just one more log on the fire.

[Kairal]

Clearly you shouldn't have been so worried about me not explaining my votes.

So this isn't a passive agressive jab at me? C'mon man at least own it. Your reasons are very obviously working backwards from your conclusion.

[Aj The Epic]

I had good vibes about Aj but here he is blatantly refusing to vote for his top scum read because I voted it.

Ok so you're spewing a lot of garbage that isn't true (from the fact that I clearly stated my reads at the end of the post I voted for you in and explained it to you obviously just not reading) but this one's simple.

My biggest scum read prior to this was naomi, not flubber.

[Kairal]

You were voting Flubber.

[Aj The Epic]

Because at the time, Flubber was the more likely lynch of the two. I am on record stating he wasn't my first choice.

[Naomi-Tan]

When I read Kairal's last post I asked; Is this normal confusion or fake confusion. I think its extremely obvious that its real confusion as before the confusion Kairal was only really suspected by one person and had clear reads and abandoning those reads and acting confused benafits no one. red or green. yet if red motivated I would of expected them to have recovered at some stage instead of going into a tail spin. this leads me onto a pretty clean and certain Kairal read.

[Aj The Epic]

Naomi if you're going to play with motives I'd like you to read my post on it. This isn't a "Meh my gut tells me ____" scenario.

[BlackVoid]

Massive - Even night cop
Kairal - VT
NaomiTan - VT
AJ The Epic - VT
Culted - VT
Dierfire - VT
IAmInnocent - VT

Looks like it's just Flubber left (besides me).

[Naomi-Tan]

Naomi if you're going to play with motives I'd like you to read my post on it. This isn't a "Meh my gut tells me ____" scenario.

Examining your motive was not my goal. I did read your previous post and decided to evaluate your actions here separately. Kairal has a much more clear motive. Yours would require a more indepth look and I am taking today off so I can brace myself for it. (your posts are kinda heavy as my own)

[Aj The Epic]

I wasn't talking about mine, but rather Kairal's. I see a scenario that he presents that wins him the game as scum. I only really looked for it because the method seemed so bad, but now my point is to highlight this possibility.

Btw how DID flubber end up claiming last?

[Naomi-Tan]

I wasn't talking about mine, but rather Kairal's. I see a scenario that he presents that wins him the game as scum. I only really looked for it because the method seemed so bad, but now my point is to highlight this possibility.

Btw how DID flubber end up claiming last?

according to super confirmed town slot blackvoid - yes.

[Aj The Epic]

...There was no yes/no question there.

[Naomi-Tan]

...There was no yes/no question there.

You... are correct... well thats awkward.. I will now attempt to subtlety deflect this with a question; Do you think there late claiming is indicative of alignment.

[Aj The Epic]

No, it's kinda a failure on the town to not call it earlier. Not that I really expected anything but VT claims with what roles had been revealed. If we had another PR, it was going to end up being a 1v1 with massive.