Mini 1895: Shaziro Mafia - GAME OVER

[Hikari Link]

@MathBlade, I also asked you a question:

How about we lynch Titus today and we lynch you tomorrow if she flips town? Would you agree to that? Because it's the only way we are lynching her.

[MathBlade]

@MathBlade, I also asked you a question:

How about we lynch Titus today and we lynch you tomorrow if she flips town? Would you agree to that? Because it's the only way we are lynching her.

Sorry I missed it the first time.
And the answer to that is no.
Because 6 alive 4 to lynch. If Titus is town then an NK goes through 4 alive 3 to lynch.
Lynch me = town loss

So no. I am not okay with that.

[MathBlade]

And you don't speak for everyone else.
I do townread you but I really wish you would not go "Titus claimed doctor" and not actually read her posts.

Because no one is giving me anything to townread her for and I see Titus scum markers all over this thread.

[Hikari Link]

And you don't speak for everyone else.

Except I kind of do in this instance. implosion has made it pretty clear he won't vote for her and Titus certainly isn't going to vote for herself. Takes 4 to lynch, so unless implosion turns on her, the only way she could possibly lynched is through my vote.

Mathblade, why are you so insistent that Titus is scum? And please don't tell me to read her myself. Give me your argument. Your

entire

argument.

[implosion]

IMO, there are several effective ways to approach setup spec; however, there are often situations in which setup spec should be considered a priori, that is, before putting significant weight on how townish or scummy someone's play looks. This is one of those cases; i'm willing to write titus and wheme off as town at this point without reading a single post that they've posted. I do independently have a strong townread on wheme and a weak townread on titus's predecessor (i haven't actually made any material effort to read into titus's alignment since massclaim). Point is, in many cases, setup spec is more reliable because it can't be faked. Any towntell can be faked, any scumtell can be you misreading into something. With setup spec in some cases, the only way you can get it wrong is by doing the math wrong, and in some cases the math is obvious enough that you really can't get it wrong. IMO, this is one of those cases, where the setup is so overwhelmingly scumsided if we don't have a doctor that it's absurd that it would pass review.

Comparing it to the only other mini normal that I can think of that had a traitor, it had a setup of (goon + goon + bp traitor) vs (gunsmith + 3-shot jailkeeper + 1-shot vig + townies); gunsmith is comparable but a bit weaker than cop, 3-shot jk is comparable to doctor, 1-shot vig is stronger than fruit vendor (it confirms itself as not mafia and also gets a kill and possibly an extra mislynch in in conjunction with the jailkeeper) AND the mafia don't have any roleblocker (which is IMO stronger than making the traitor bulletproof). So that setup is comparable to or a bit more townsided than this setup if Titus is telling the truth, and MASSIVELY more townsided than this if Titus is lying. And that setup was STILL called scumsided in postgame. And most importantly, discussion of mini normal balance on MS since then has erred on the side of making things more townsided.

Anyway this is just a thing that's easy for me to rant about. We really need Wheme to start actually posting fucking anything at all today. GiF would be nice as well but he's likely to on his own eventually.

Shaziro: can you poke wheme?

[Hikari Link]

Hey, I had a thought earlier that I forgot to post because I got distracted. I know GuyInFreezer is generally considered pretty town, but have we not considered the possibility that he is Mafia Roleblocker Neighbor? I think it's a longer shot than MathBlade, but not outside the realm of possibility.

[implosion]

Considered it, certainly. Still considering it, yes. Think it's likely, no.

[WhemeStar]

Considered it, certainly. Still considering it, yes. Think it's likely, no.

I'm still here @implosion

[WhemeStar]

Idk why that quoted

[WhemeStar]

Idk about lynching Titus, rather do Math

[MathBlade]

And you don't speak for everyone else.

Except I kind of do in this instance. implosion has made it pretty clear he won't vote for her and Titus certainly isn't going to vote for herself. Takes 4 to lynch, so unless implosion turns on her, the only way she could possibly lynched is through my vote.

Mathblade, why are you so insistent that Titus is scum? And please don't tell me to read her myself. Give me your argument. Your

entire

argument.

My argument about her being the mafia roleblocker is that she is a known gambiter and she specifically crafts her mafia games to fuck with me. And generally does so quite well.

In regards to her slot in general I believe her predecessor slipped and she continues to talk about other things. When that didn't work she then claimed doctor and used the fact there wasn't an NK.

In short I feel it in my bones.

[Titus]

VOTE: Math

I don't like how silent GiF is, but Math cannot be anywhere near lylo given they refuse to actually analyze players.

[MathBlade]

Far as I am concerned I am the ONLY slot analyzing you.

You're gonna try to mislynch me then coast.

[implosion]

I don't see why math town doesn't try to reach out to me and convince me on Titus. I've been pretty clear about what I need to be convinced (namely, refutations to my arguments about why the setup can't be balanced if she's scum), and they haven't addressed my arguments about why fruit vendor is a weak role, or why the comparison to a newbie game is invalid. I think town-math here should realize that the way to get a Titus lynch is to reason with me/others.

That said I also think it's just somewhat unlikely in the first place that town would think that Titus is scum in this position.

Kop's ISO is mostly boring. 2293-94 is interesting and I think points slightly in the direction of not-scum-with-one but maybe only slightly.

Doubt I'm going to change my mind on this today.

VOTE: MathBlade

[WhemeStar]

VOTE: Math

[Shaziro]

Votecount 5.3

Votes

Titus (1)

- MathBlade,

WhemeStar (1)

- GuyInFreezer,

MathBlade (3)

- Titus, implosion, WhemeStar

Not Voting

:
Hikari Link


With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

(expired on 2017-05-18 05:37:30)

[Hikari Link]

I'm declaring my intent to hammer.

But as much as I'd love to hammer here, I can't do it in good conscience without at least reading the other choices first to make sure it's the right choice. I will do that right now and respond ASAP. Mostly going to be ISOs, so it should be fast-ish, but I'll probably need to read some surrounding posts for context, so it might hamper me a little.

Spoiler: implosion

I don't see why math town doesn't try to reach out to me and convince me on Titus. I've been pretty clear about what I need to be convinced (namely, refutations to my arguments about why the setup can't be balanced if she's scum), and they haven't addressed my arguments about why fruit vendor is a weak role, or why the comparison to a newbie game is invalid. I think town-math here should realize that the way to get a Titus lynch is to reason with me/others.

Then try harder to engage him. I don't really want to draw this day out an unnecessarily long amount, but when we have time to try to engage him, we should try to engage him.

That said I also think it's just somewhat unlikely in the first place that town would think that Titus is scum in this position.

He could simply be subject to massive confirmation bias and unwilling to give up his scumTitus conspiracy theory.

Spoiler: Titus

VOTE: Math

I don't like how silent GiF is, but Math cannot be anywhere near lylo given they refuse to actually analyze players.

I definitely agree that I don't want him near LyLo, but I that doesn't mean we should make hasty decisions. If we fully flesh our reasoning out right here, right now, then hopefully LyLo won't be necessary. And I'd rather have someone unhelpful in LyLo than to mislynch someone because they won't be helpful.

Spoiler: WhemeStar

Considered it, certainly. Still considering it, yes. Think it's likely, no.

I'm still here @implosion

Then please do something of value.

@Titus and WhemeStar:

You guys are, for all intents and purposes, confirmed town here. You're the ones who should be leading this town. not implosion or I. So please be more active and give us your analysis of things. Because regardless of whether or not your analyses are right, their the only ones we can guarantee come from a town motivation. On top of that, you're extremely likely to die tonight, Titus. You should be leaving us with your final words of wisdom so that, if Math doesn't flip scum, we have your analysis to look at.

Spoiler: MathBlade

And you don't speak for everyone else.

Except I kind of do in this instance. implosion has made it pretty clear he won't vote for her and Titus certainly isn't going to vote for herself. Takes 4 to lynch, so unless implosion turns on her, the only way she could possibly lynched is through my vote.

Mathblade, why are you so insistent that Titus is scum? And please don't tell me to read her myself. Give me your argument. Your

entire

argument.

My argument about her being the mafia roleblocker is that she is a known gambiter and she specifically crafts her mafia games to fuck with me. And generally does so quite well.

In regards to her slot in general I believe her predecessor slipped and she continues to talk about other things. When that didn't work she then claimed doctor and used the fact there wasn't an NK.

In short I feel it in my bones.

But your hypothesis isn't explaining

why

there wasn't a night kill. How could somebody have survived night 3 is there was no Doctor? Also, you claim to be the only one analyzing Titus, but do you understand that "feeling it in your bones" is not analysis? The town can't do a damn thing with a feeling in your bones. Give

specific

examples of other completed games where she has gambited in the past and explain why this situation is similar. Actually look at the content of what she's saying and explain

why

what she is saying comes from a scum motivation.

Answer

other people's questions with concrete information.

@MathBlade:

I'm going to level with you, despite everything I've said about giving you a chance, I'm 99.9% likely to hammer you, because I don't think you are going to follow through with satisfactory dialogue, because I think you are scum. If you are ton, there is still a .1% chance that you will be able to convince us, so don't give up. However, if you are scum, I would be extremely grateful if you just hammered yourself right now and ended the game. You'd save me and everybody else a lot of time. I wouldn't consider it throwing the game, because you're going to die, it's just a matter of how slowly.

[Hikari Link]

I doubt anyone has an answer to this, but I'm curious if anybody can think of what Not_Mafia's motivation might have been for hammering himself.

[Hikari Link]

Oh, shit! I literally just realized that I'm not the only one who can hammer right now.

@GuyInFreezer:

Please don't hammer until we resolve some of the current questions I've posed.

[Hikari Link]

@implosion: You remind me a lot of myself in terms of playstyle. When I play scum, I try to emulate my town playstle as closely as possible, so I kind of suspect you do the same. Can you please show me some of your recently completed scum games? I want to see if everyone thought you were town in those games. In addition, I want to see if you played similarly there to here. Throw in a recent town game too, just as a control.

[Hikari Link]

VOTE: MathBlade

Fuck it! I'm going to look awful if this is a mislynch, but saying this without voting would probably result in you all mislynching me for waffling about. If this this isn't the end and you lynch me tomorrow, I won't hold it against you. If you read this post as town and Math isn't scum, then we'll try to hash things out tomorrow.

I just realized it's not the end of the world to lose a Mafia game. Ironically, I started playing on this site again to see if I could take things a bit less seriously when I play IRL with my friends*. I just got so swept up in my competitive habits that I forgot that.

*A little background: I play The Resistance (another deception game in the vein of Mafia) on a weekly basis with my friends and I'm pretty much always dominating the game because I have a strong personality, I'm overly competitive, and I have a decent mind for strategy. Most of my friends don't seem to mind, but in one of my recent games, a new player pointed out that I have an undue amount of control in the game. Granted, he was a Spy, so that might have been meant to discredit me, but it's an extremely legitimate assessment nonetheless.

I'd also like to point out the hypocrisy and/or irony of me playing because I had too much control in another game, realizing that I was doing the same here, and then hammering to hopefully end the game without consulting anybody else. I clearly have control issues I need to work on.

[implosion]

When I play scum, I try to emulate my town playstle as closely as possible, so I kind of suspect you do the same.

Indeed.

I have exactly one recent scum game here (ignoring one micro that was super short and uninteresting). Pretty much any of my other recent completed games will be towngames <_> this is probably the best recent one for an example.

[MathBlade]

I was AFK Lynch Titus or Implosion tomorrow.

Life sucks sorry couldn't defend myself

[MathBlade]

Gotta go again.

[Hikari Link]

I was AFK Lynch Titus or Implosion tomorrow.

Life sucks sorry couldn't defend myself

Assuming he's not scum (when I play with my friends, I'll wait until the reveal, just to fuck with them), I think it's GuyInFreezer.

GuyInFreezer jumped on the Titus out of the gate and tried to get me to sheep him on that. Then he switched over to Wheme as a "screw you" vote, which I I feel like was a place to put his vote until he could jump on a real wagon, while also leaving the remote chance that our other confirmed town might get lynched.