Mini Normal 1908 - In The Web (Game Over)

[Kelvin Smith]

I would be okay with suffering with you.

Oh, for real? I thought you were gonna quit, but if it's you, I'm definitely down.

[RayFrost]

I could break down my reasons for each investigation and the connected results from each one and how I would've changed my investigations given different results, but that's too much effort for a finished game.

P-edit: I'm willing to suffer with you for one game before that.

[Ircher]

Gg all! Thanks for modding!

[Ircher]

Alrighty then.
Now who was the one who fakeclaimed VT?

No one.

I got lucky.

[BigYoshiFan]

Error or not, I think town loses.

[Ircher]

did that guy's opinion conflict with the entire nrg then
;-; i'm a disappointment

pedit: Even so, i still didn't really think it was possible. If anything two investigates was suspect. GG though; this loss was mostly on me but Ircher and MMM both played extremely well and absolutely deserved to win I think

Thank you. You were making me worried there. I had to get Gamma ML but I didn't want to make you too suspicious of me.

[Ircher]

I honestly wanted to no lynch this game day but didn't think anybody would be willing to take me up on that without reasons and if I gave the reasons it wouldn't be useful (if ircher's scum, he can't die - if he's town, he has to die or scum risk losing the game, so with no death the ircher claim is more suspect). I typed up a post about it then deleted it.

Ircher's claim wasn't solid to me but his play itself wasn't that scummy to me either.

MMM was very scummy to me, but I felt like Gamma / MMM was the team, so lynching one before the other didn't matter. PP actually seemed rather townish to me in the end.

No lynch would've been correct.

If we lynched MMM, I might would have been able to avoid immediate lynch.

[RayFrost]

The thing with no lynch is I was 99% certain MM4 wouldn't push it, scum!Ircher wouldn't push it, gamma wouldn't understand it, MMM was likely scum, and no clue how PP would react

So pushing for it without an explanation just felt like it'd end up getting me further into a hole in terms of towncred without actually getting the result of no lynching.

And if I have to explain it, it doesn't work.

[Ircher]

I just want to know the mod error and the decision(s) made to fix it

Havingfits blocked you N1 but you still got a result. The mods compensated by giving No Result to you N3 (which I personally disagree w/ the way they did such.)

[Ircher]

I mean, if there had been no mod error at all, would town have still won?
Ray wouldn't received a N1 innocent (PP or MM4, can't remember), but would he have chosen those two to investigate after N1 anyways?
I don't think the error had any effect on how believable Ircher's claim was either.

Yes, but Ray may not have claimed when he did and as a result, massclaim might not have been a thing.

[Transcend]

ya

ray has a smaller pool to choose from n3 than he did n1.

i think something else should've been done.

[Ircher]

Also, I had a confessional thread towards the end of D5 (late, i know) that I'm releasing.

[Ircher]

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=72168 - My thread.

I sent ThinkBig a lot of pms throughout the latter half of the game.

[Ircher]

MMM ISO - Night 4
=====================
1. 63 --> Votes Titus because of afraid of getting tunneled by Titus -->

This post feels too buddy-buddy with Titus. -->

Very Scummy (-5)

2. 123 --> Explains scumreads in {Titus, Mort/Yoshi, Gamma} -->

All of these are pretty weak and like the post immediately after says, superficial. Nonetheless, I can accept this as coming from town especially this early in the game. Without 124, I would be more suspicious, but this just feels like early game reads from a townie who wants to get/keep the game moving. -->

Town (+3)

3. 131 --> "I just wonder whether actually got two scum right there or it's actually too good to be true." -->

Wording feels sorta off here, as if MMM is trying to fake town paranoia or whatever. -->

Null-Scum (-2)

4. 313 --> Explain {Transcend} vote later, but counterintuitive now -->

Honestly don't get this. How is it counterintuitive to explain it now? -->

Null-Scum (-1)

5. 388 --> Transcend case -->

Meh, this is ok. -->

Neutral (0)

6. 610 --> Apology for snapping at Transcend -->

AtE is easy to fake, but I buy that MMM was genuinely frustrated with Transcend. -->

Null Town (+1)

7. 989 --> Catch up post -->

I like this post because it shows a more open perspective. MMM is also notably quite a bit more "serene" than in previous posts. -->

Town (+3)

8. 1254 --> Quotes a lot of Wheme's posts and states that this might be Transcend's alt -->

This post feels pretty off; what did Wheme do that reminded you of Transcend. Nothing you quoted seemed really that obnoxious. -->

Scum (-3)

9. 1628 --> Explains his read on me to MM4 among other things -->

I like the reasons he brought up; it makes his read seem well founded. -->

Town (+3)

10. 1976 --> NKA post -->

This was a bad post. -->

Null-Scum (-2)

11. 2343 --> Quotes Ray's gunsmith claim and says a few things -->

The last part of it is actually not that bad of a speculation. It's still speculative (less so w/ the mod error thing) but I see where it is coming from. -->

Somewhat Town (+2)

12. 2479 to 2493 --> Interaction w/ Kelvin's hypothetical "What If....?" scenario -->

I really like MMM's posts here; he's showing that he has actually thought through the scenario and all. -->

Town (+4)

I posted this in the scum pt N4 but the links don't work there. This was supposed to be like a somewhat town case on him, but I actually had a hard time trying to do such.

[ThinkBig]

Game Links

• Dead Thread (worth the read)
  
• Scum Thread (also worth the read)
  
• Moderator Thread (to be released whenever Jordan makes it public)

[Ircher]

Subject: Mini Normal 1908 - In the Recycle Bin (graveyard)

and if somebody wants to help me improve, I am all about it.

I need to first be able to tell the difference from scummy town and scummy scum.

how do I do it?

For a lot of players that have a tendency to look like scum as town, I think there is a noticeable difference in motivation to play.

Subject: Mini Normal 1908 - In the Recycle Bin (graveyard)

Now if only they'd stop and realize that it's suspect how much Ircher fought for that and actually reevaluate the gamestate with this information, rather than just continuing on with all of their incorrect assumptions, we might be able to get somewhere.

Pointing out such was honestly against my win con. But at the same time, I wanted to give town a shot at winning; I didn't want it to be that town lost because of a mod error that was wrongly handled.

[RayFrost]

Eh, since I'm here and procrastinating, here is the mental breakdown for my investigation targets:

MM4 was my first target because I had a midling read on him and felt from his posting that he was not likely to be killed if town and more likely to be pushed as a mislynch - if he's scum, his most likely partners were in my mind ircher, bigyoshifan, and mortfeld. All three of these people were uncertain reads on me, so the connective results meant I'd be likely to make further reads. Additionally, MM4 seemed really easy to influence and push toward my way of thinking toward later in the game, which is favorable in that I trust my reads and having someone I can push to follow me is an advantage.

Reason to not investigate other people: I genuinely did townread gamma after the day 1 interactions, I townread the Tarkus slot, had an iffy read regarding MMM (honestly was leaning scum or hard-scum to me all game), and I felt that the other players were more likely to die if they were town (aside from bigyoshifan - it was a tossup between the two, but yoshi felt like he'd be more stubborn and less likely to sheep me if I pushed for it in a late game situation).

N2, given the no-gun result on MM4, I was less likely to go with either of ircher / bigyoshifan due to the decreased connective read that I could get. And that day phase passed without me even really getting to be part of it. So it's back to "who's unlikely to die" - the lurked slot on penguinpower. There we go. Another hard to read but likely to live to endgame slot.

N3, I actually wavered between MMM and Priscila, but in the end I decided to go with trying for as many town-confirmations as possible rather than going for a scum confirmation. I felt that I could get that lynch on MMM without many issues regardless, so there's little to no reason to have a guilty on top of it. And at this point, I'm also trying to clear out the people that I am uncertain about in their connections to the read - gamma + MMM / Priscila + MMM / Ircher + MMM were what was left.

With the discussion of mafia doc etc etc, I felt it was likely that if there was one on the scumteam that of any of the combinations, Ircher's claim made him the most likely to give a false innocent if he's guilty. So, I don't investigate that potential partner. With the others, it's a 50/50 between MMM or the other one giving a potential false innocent. Then, I still have a moderate townread on gamma (it's weakened but still there), so that leaves Priscila.

Then I got ruined by mod error and mod "compensation" lost all motivation to play the game because of the snafu and really lost my hold on the game since I went from a position of power to a position of what is this garbage nonsense and all of the posting surrounding that was essentially a full day of white noise with no purpose.

[RayFrost]

If I had received no result on MM4, I would have investigated one of ircher / bigyoshifan come night two, likely ircher because yoshifan was actually a stronger townread to me if forced to pick between the two come night 2.

If I had received a no result on PenguinPower, I would have investigated PenguinPower again because of the negative whiplash regarding his hammer and I didn't feel that it was very alignment indicative and would want to clear that up so that we could get back to who I found suspect, which was MMM.

[RayFrost]

And I would have claimed two-shot gunsmith at the same time that I did with the result of my investigations no matter what they were, as it would inherently push scum away from killing me (a power role that's used all its power already?) and the reactions surrounding my results would help to point me in the right direction for my final shot.

[Kelvin Smith]

Subject: Mini Normal 1908 - In the Recycle Bin (graveyard)

Now if only they'd stop and realize that it's suspect how much Ircher fought for that and actually reevaluate the gamestate with this information, rather than just continuing on with all of their incorrect assumptions, we might be able to get somewhere.

Pointing out such was honestly against my win con. But at the same time, I wanted to give town a shot at winning; I didn't want it to be that town lost because of a mod error that was wrongly handled.

Whether it was your intention or otherwise, it was arguably in favor of your wincon. By appearing like the voice of reason when town is getting ready to drive itself off a cliff, you'd only solidify the already ironclad townread everybody had on you. Sometimes the best thing that you can do for your wincon as scum is to play against your wincon.

[MMM]

lol mmm got caught d1 by myself and grey

then when we both exited the game no one gave a fuck about him lol

ircher's bus on titusslot and claim were pretty good though

Both of you backed down on scum reading me so uh
Nope lol.

^ for me
MMM and Ircher were good; MMM's play fooled me at least, even if not pretty much everyone else, and Ircher's fakeclaim was either well-thought out, or I am just even more stupid then I thought
I actually had the team early d3 and then I stupidized myself out of it is the funny part

I can assure you it wasn't a claim that was thought of for long before it was made.

[Ircher]

I didn't think about it too long but some thought when in to it; Ray's claim made me think the likelihood of an investigative was somewhat low.

Also, imo, this setup is slightly townsided -- what are your thoughts? Was it because we bussed Fitz early or are there a bit too many clears in this game?

[MMM]

It came out the wrong way when I said it, but yeah, the claim was great and at least half the reason we won/I didn't end up having to bus you along with fitz.

This seems somewhat townsided to me as well. Double investigative is what seals that for me, since if neither investigative is killed they can have up to 3 clears on d3 - 5 on d4 (except not really since there's not even that many town left at that point) and having a second investigative is more beneficial to town than a doctor.

[Ircher]

I didn't think about it too long but some thought when in to it; Ray's claim made me think the likelihood of an protective was somewhat low.

Also, imo, this setup is slightly townsided -- what are your thoughts? Was it because we bussed Fitz early or are there a bit too many clears in this game?

EBWOP

[Ircher]

Yeah, my cpncern was that scum are PoE'd too easily in this setup but I wonder if bussing Fitz was part of that.