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Post Post #2025 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:29 pm

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Post Post #2026 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:30 pm

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Post Post #2027 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:32 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

There's very little actual progression or action behind Massive's MMM/Chickadee read, the vote in and interaction in on the 22nd is still something I'm having trouble parsing given it really didn't factor in what had actually transpired, restates it's due to him thinking that MMM is "scum caught for the wrong reasons" in on the 24th and then nothing until I question him about the slot in on the 27th where it's a very vague read, his attempt to drag it and argue semantics in is similarly something I think makes much more sense coming from scum.

Also still find his response towards my question about his reads if MMM was town in to show..little actual thought process behind it, town players usually have tin-foil thoughts and theories, reads that don't make complete sense but they've considered when reading a certain post, looking at an ISO or just generally thinking about the game. I didn't see any of that from here there really. I think his complete ignorance of Tchill during that D1 period outside of stating a complete "don't know" on him in to maintain his vote on MMM makes significantly more sense as scum that was bussing and playing for image rather than town considering the game and still find the read on Gerry in particular inside that post to make very little sense.

The complete lack of any comment about LUV's guilty on Chickadee to him stating he's going to vote FF in is a pretty massive (ha!) scum tell here. When he does get around to it in has him questioning LUV re; breadcrumbing rather than y'know actually voting his scum read that was guiltied or doing anything of the sort. There's just no scumhunting or anything from him throughout any of D2, all of his posts are flat air and him avoiding his own strong scum read from D1.

Think the dudes just scum?

Like there's no reads from him that have no real backing or commitment from him?

His scum read on MMM D1 and the way he maintained it and ignored Tchill to state a null read on Tchill while that lynch was going through fits as scum?

His stance on how D2 played out particularly ignoring Chickadee re; the guilty on her makes so much sense as mafia?

Chickadees read on him and MMM"s interaction with vote fit as partners.

Still got to get through Eeve and FF but comfortably voting for now.

Vote: Massive

In post 2024, Formerfish wrote:Fine, give me a minute. You cant blame a brother for trying to figure that out when I had a slight bit of leverage. Give me a few minutes and I can show you whatever you want.
It's cheeky but I want to get through an entire game on alt without revealing/slipping it for once. Thanks for the links though.
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Post Post #2028 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:35 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

Spoiler:
In post 1410, massive wrote:
In post 1232, aronagrundy wrote: my gut tells me that there's 1 scum in danyboy/massive due to activity.
Can I just ask what, and I'm quoting The Rock here, IN THE BLUE HELL would make you post this about either of us when both of us have more posts than you?

===

"Scum caught for the wrong reasons" -- some players, especially new players, see wagons build on them for what they consider "dumb reasons" (in this case, the push on activity as scummy) and flip out, calling it all manner of poor play and attacking the push. They feel like they're caught but not for anything they've done that's actually scummy, just something unreasonable. It's a thing.

===

Gonna vote FF because I feel like I know what GreyICE gambits look like but I also feel like there's gotta still be other things to do today.
In post 1412, massive wrote:Wha ... what specifically in that post feels fake?
In post 1555, massive wrote:Catching up from 57.
In post 1561, massive wrote:Well I'm caught up.

I don't have any issue with how LUV entered D2 and while I think I would have checked someone I felt 50/50 on rather than someone I was running up D1, I think he is correct that he could have been drowned out starting today, which plays to his mindset to check Chickadee.

LUV -- did it occur to you to breadcrumb your result? Was there ever a concern that, without pushing Chickadee to start D2, if you had died that it could have been interpreted you HAD checked Chickadee N1 but gotten a result matching her claim?
In post 1565, massive wrote:Fish can you talk to me about your progression from scum-Grey (circa the 1v1 in ) to maybe-town-maybe-scum (around ) to now pretty much 100% town Grey here?
In post 1572, massive wrote:Man I am just getting into too many WIFOM scenarios in my head.
In post 1764, massive wrote:Honestly I could lynch either and honestly I'm so sick of players on this site just being absolute garbage to other players.


Like the above are
all
of his D2 posts, there's nothing there that looks even remotely town?
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Post Post #2029 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:38 pm

Post by Mulch »

So, am I confirmed town?
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Post Post #2030 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:40 pm

Post by Mulch »

Look, I'm really sorry about this game, I'm gonna admit that the fact that 1) The entire playerlist have been assholes to each other 2) The attitude of playerlist towards me and 3) The fact I genuinely feel so much at a disadvantage with the setup and the roles,

has made me not really want to put effort into this game

Let alone the fact that I haven't read it all lol

I promise to step it up lategame though if I'm alive.

For now, I think that massive has high scum equity, but would rather go Eevee atm. I just feel that Eevee has been scummy and floating the entire game.
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Post Post #2031 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:48 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

In post 2029, Mulch wrote:So, am I confirmed town?
Pretty much. You can only be mafia if Arona is mafia which a) Isn't the case and b) Would mean both mafia fake claiming a PR which I doubt here. Not to mention that MMM & Chickadee both spewed you town and your play is pretty transparently town too. Plus I remember you softing when GreyICE initially claimed on D2 and that with the way you've discussed that you want to claim here and don't understand it all is pretty unfakeable. And if you don't want to heavily invest effort wise with actually doing lots of rereads of the entire game that's fine given we're in a pretty unloseable position with 4 clears and 4 lynches with 9 alive but would like you at least elaborate a bit more on your Eeve > Massive stance since I think lots of the reasons I've put forward re; Massive are very strong.

With that I'll be out for a few hours.
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Post Post #2032 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:12 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Okay, ReplacedIn?

Stop it.

We are lynching FormerFish today, I am not playing another random duck hunt with you. He dies today. This is a 100% thing, I don't care about your bloody reads. You read MMM as one of the most townie players in the game. Now get. over. it. I'm sure other players are playing much worse. Frankly, everyone who isn't me is playing much worse, and I wish to god he was on my team because it would make this game so much simpler. But he is scum, and I am town, and this is how it goes.
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Post Post #2033 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:20 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Take every piece of respect or loyalty or just sheer "what the fuck, how did he read that" you've ever experienced with me. Now let me assure you. He was my second strongest scumread day 1, and that's not a coincidence.

Feel free to discard every bit of it if I'm wrong, I don't care. I don't play to have laurels or do the right thing, I play to win, and this is the play.
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Post Post #2034 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:02 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

You do you, I don't expect you to vote anywhere else today. I can understand and acknowledge your stance in that regard.

But at least let me do me for now and if I get around to him being the best lynch today then I'll vote him later.

In the meantime I'm going to focus on narrowing down the potential scum teams and worlds and what I've read so far is pointing towards Massive being the play.
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Post Post #2035 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:06 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

In post 175, EeveeLution Army wrote:Hmm i think i want to hear from formerfish about this lynch before i make my next move here.
In post 266, EeveeLution Army wrote:Townreads- former / mmm / lil
Slight scumread on mulch / bomber / possibly lmk depending on what he says when he gets back
Rest neutral for now.

Nothing is locked yet though.
Think the above (Really don't see Eeve ever posting the first about a partner and don't think he'd be ballsy enough to attempt to powerwolf re; his reads in the second one) combined with MMM's reads placement and Eeves treatment of Chickadee v FF yesterday makes me pretty comfortable to rule out Eeve-FF completely.
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Post Post #2036 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:36 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

Finished going through the four ISO's. Happy to rule out FF-Eeve completely (Went into this in fairly big detail, there's also an interaction between FF->Eeve yesterday re; lynching him to find out if there's a RB that's not a W/W interaction), also think Frogger-Massive (Don't think this is a buss attempt from him and think Massive would have played yesterday differently if his partners were MMM & LMK in that he'd have played to endgame which he hasn't) and Frogger-Eeve (Based around Eeves reaction and 'paranoia' over LMK leaving Eeve out of his reads list earlier in the game as well as Frogger leaving Eeve much lower on his reads list) are less likely.

I think the most likely scum teams we're up against is either 1) FF-Frogger, 2) FF-Massive and 3) Eeve-Massive, in there I think FF-Frogger is probably the least plausible in that on review while Frogger trying to save FF today to make sure it's not 1 scum going into the night is a play that'd make sense as scum it's not a winning move in that he'd be aware that FF is dying at some point and the defence here would mean he'd never be able to get to let alone win a F3.

So pretty much overall I think the most likely teams is FF-Massive or Eeve-Massive.

@GreyICE - I think you'll agree with me that Eeve-FF aren't particularly likely; so assuming Mulch/Arona/iDanny are all town (which imo is the case) who do you plausibly see FF as partners with here at the moment? If the answer is as simple as "One of Massive/Frogger" which is what I'm at then we've almost certainly won.
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Post Post #2037 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:24 pm

Post by GreyICE »

In post 2034, ReplacedIn wrote:You do you, I don't expect you to vote anywhere else today. I can understand and acknowledge your stance in that regard.

But at least let me do me for now and if I get around to him being the best lynch today then I'll vote him later.

In the meantime I'm going to focus on narrowing down the potential scum teams and worlds and what I've read so far is pointing towards Massive being the play.
You're doing relationship analysis when all you need to be doing is sorting out the obvious. We aren't going to play six degrees of Kevin Bacon. Why do you even think Massive and MMM were scum together? How does that make sense? Scum don't do what those two did. Not unless they flat forgot they were scum together, and while massive is many things he's not that derpy (MMM might be, but hey).
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Post Post #2038 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:30 pm

Post by GreyICE »

In post 2036, ReplacedIn wrote:@GreyICE - I think you'll agree with me that Eeve-FF aren't particularly likely; so assuming Mulch/Arona/iDanny are all town (which imo is the case) who do you plausibly see FF as partners with here at the moment? If the answer is as simple as "One of Massive
/Frogger
" which is what I'm at then we've almost certainly won.
Except that FF talks his way out of that, then kills me, you derp around trying to sort out which bad player we lynch, and he rides this home.

Remember, I'm married to someone who once went into LyLo with 3 confirmed town in an open setup and got one of them lynched. Literally confirmed not to have submitted a kill on a night where someone died and only one scum was left. And that person was lynched because "oh yeah you're playing so poorly you must be scum". This is the sort of crap you get to put up with when scum have shot their way to an ideal town.

That's how we lose this. Not insufficient analysis from someone who is
GUARANTEED NOT TO DIE
. Like seriously we're sitting on two confirmed town and two claimed power roles. Holy fuck why would you ever die ever? Even given it's you, if scum shoot you over a confirmed townie I will do a tapdance of joy. They have no free shots, you can't ever die. Like ever.
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Post Post #2039 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:36 pm

Post by GreyICE »

Although shit that occurs to me. If Arona is telling the truth, then ReplacedIn suddenly is looking an awful lot more like the mafia godfather - since arona survives weak copping him. Which... even trying to figure out the basics of his setup hurts me deep inside, but I feel like it's a thoughtful worth posting.
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Post Post #2040 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:37 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

Can #2039 & #2040 please be deleted. I've quoted them here;
In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=9411182#p9411182]post 2039[/url], Mine wrote:
In post 2037, GreyICE wrote:You're doing relationship analysis when all you need to be doing is sorting out the obvious. We aren't going to play six degrees of Kevin Bacon. Why do you even think Massive and MMM were scum together? How does that make sense? Scum don't do what those two did. Not unless they flat forgot they were scum together, and while massive is many things he's not that derpy (MMM might be, but hey).
This is where we very very strongly disagree, I think Massive<->MMM interaction and how they handled each other make significantly
more
sense as mafia than not, it's how I've seen scum handle their partners in the last ~3-4 games I've played in fact. I don't think Massives progression behind the read, how he handled yesterday or anything in his posting fullstop comes across as town. I think both Chickadee and MMM's comments to Massive point to him being scum. I think he makes sense with both FF & Eevee. Like there's dozens of reasons why I think Massive is scum and the right lynch at the moment.
<<< You quoted them so all is good. >>>
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Post Post #2041 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:42 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

In post 2038, GreyICE wrote:Except that FF talks his way out of that, then kills me, you derp around trying to sort out which bad player we lynch, and he rides this home.

Remember, I'm married to someone who once went into LyLo with 3 confirmed town in an open setup and got one of them lynched. Literally confirmed not to have submitted a kill on a night where someone died and only one scum was left. And that person was lynched because "oh yeah you're playing so poorly you must be scum". This is the sort of crap you get to put up with when scum have shot their way to an ideal town.

That's how we lose this. Not insufficient analysis from someone who is
GUARANTEED NOT TO DIE
. Like seriously we're sitting on two confirmed town and two claimed power roles. Holy fuck why would you ever die ever? Even given it's you, if scum shoot you over a confirmed townie I will do a tapdance of joy. They have no free shots, you can't ever die. Like ever.
I'm well aware I'm not getting shot any time soon, I do think if we mslynch today and mafia have a roleblocker that's odd nights then Arona gets roleblocked and you get shot which is why I'm trying to discuss this with you now. We have 4 lynches, 4 clears and 9 people alive, for FF as scum to win he has to get every single townie that's not one of the clears including myself mslynched, that's not something I'm particularly worried about given well I'm never getting mslynched here for one and for two I'm very happy to go Massive->FF, heck I might even be willing to go FF->Massive. I moreso just want to win this as cleanly as possible, I don't want this going to a F3 or even a F5 if we don't need it to. So narrowing down the scum teams that exist is pretty fucking important in doing that.

So do you first off agree that FF-Eeve isn't a thing? If so what do you think of the possibility of FF-Massive and FF-Frogger?
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Post Post #2042 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:49 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

Where I'm at is this, there's 4 players where the two scum are inside off, if you remove Eeve-FF as a possibility and remove Massive-Frogger which I'm mostly comfortable doing at the moment you and up with a situation of 1 Scum inside Eeve/FF & 1 Scum inside Massive/Frogger in all situations.

If I'm having to make a decision on who to lynch between Eeve/FF, I'd be lynching Eeve based on play in that I've found a decent chunk of FF's reactions towards all of this some degree of townish and scum read Eeves complete lack of attempt to gamesolve but when factoring in the guilty / roleblocked type section I'd probably lynch FF over her and not feel great about it. It's a much simpler decision when it comes to Massive/Frogger for me in that while I've scum read the LMK slot I think there's a
lot
more that points towards Massive being mafia then there is Frogger and think Massive fits with the other duo more than Frogger does.

If you disagree with any of this I'm happy to talk it out.
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Post Post #2043 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:59 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

In post 2039, GreyICE wrote:Although shit that occurs to me. If Arona is telling the truth, then ReplacedIn suddenly is looking an awful lot more like the mafia godfather - since arona survives weak copping him. Which... even trying to figure out the basics of his setup hurts me deep inside, but I feel like it's a thoughtful worth posting.
Existence of my role is due to LUV's and yours in that it's to reduce the amount of players clear-able as VT's in his case and town in yours -- if every townie was a VT it'd be even more of a broken game in that it'd be highly likely to have 4+ clears come D2 and ~6 or so (autowin) on D3. It's not a good way to balance it in that it's still a massively town sided setup with mechanics involved that seem wonky and outside of what I think should be in a normal game but it's the avenue they've taken.

Think you should be able to recognise that I'm always town here just via play alone even ignoring how genuinely I'd claimed.
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Post Post #2044 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:10 pm

Post by ReplacedIn »

In post 1554, ReplacedIn wrote:Effectively tldr so far is GreyICE & Mulch are always town, Arona is very probably town, iDanny is probably town but it's not a read I feel very good about at all. I've got weakish scum reads on Eve & LMK's slot, would like people to talk more about the former and I'm hoping the latter is self-resolving.
In post 1831, ReplacedIn wrote:
Unvote, Vote:Chickadee


FF very probably still needs to die tomorrow, think people need to look more at Eeve/Massive too, particularly the latter has had some problematic posts today.

Need to not forget about Frogger too.
Slightly tilting that the 4 players I had as town reads yesterday are exactly the 4 clears at the moment and 4 players I had as players to focus on and solve are the same pool I'm looking at today, had the claim/night action situation panned out even marginally differently to the extent where just one from that pool of 4 was sorted or solved from it then this would be significantly less painful. Still think a scum lynch today means we probably win from NAR tonight. Still think Massive is our best chance at that, Eeve scum reading Massive but never doing a single thing about it, FF choosing to go Arona over Massive and not really paying too much attention to him are both things that easily make those pairings work even ignoring how obvscum Massive is by himself.

And with that I'm out for the day, decent chance I won't have net access tomorrow.
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Post Post #2045 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:48 pm

Post by mastina »

Fair warning: I'll be busy Wednesday so might not be able to give you votecounts tomorrow. (I have a date with Jae. <3)
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Post Post #2046 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:49 pm

Post by mastina »

For that matter it's also late right now so I don't have the energy to create a proper votecount right now.
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Post Post #2047 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:54 pm

Post by mastina »

However, while I can't give you a proper votecount, I can at least give you a filler votecount.
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Post Post #2048 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:54 pm

Post by mastina »

If nancy beats me to it, she can turn it into a proper VC.
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Post Post #2049 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:54 pm

Post by mastina »

If not, expect it to be done on Thursday.
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