Mini Normal 1951 [Game Over]

[Boonskiies]

Think I’m scum with Reav and Sub?

I’ll vote either of them.

VOTE: Reave
VOTE: Sub
VOTE: Reave

[Boonskiies]

Who you want Porkens?

[Porkens]

Con...firmed?

[Boonskiies]

Con...firmed?

Which one of them are my partners. I’ll lynch either of them. Vote with me. Then the vigilante can shoot me tonight. Two scum down, right?

[Tchill13]

Vote Count 1.30

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Klazam (7):Alisae, Sub4hire, Tchill13, Sergtacos, UC Voyager, WhyMafia, Dunkerdoodles

[LYNCH]

Derpy Hooves(2):Boonskiies,Assemblertows

[L-5]

Sergtacos (2): Toranaga, Acidphoenix

[L-5]

Tchill13(1):Klazam

[L-6]

Not voting (1): Derpy Hooves

[/color]

Vote Count 2.04

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch!

Alisae (6):Michael22omega, WhyMafia, Sergtacos, Dunkerdoodles, Derpy Hooves, Alisae

[Lynch]

WhyMafia (1): Tchill13

[L-5]

Michael22omega (1):Boonskiies

[L-5]

Not voting (3): Sub4hire, Aseemblerotws, acidphoenix

Countdown: (expired on 2017-10-25 12:08:48)

Sure, I'm VT. You go next.

VOTE: Pokerns

VOTE: Porken

He’s voting Tchill and calling Why scum. The Neapolitan counter result. Lack of using action Night 2. I think this makes the most sense.

I have seen enough.

VOTE: Porkens

VOTE: porkens

[Tchill13]

whymaf has been a part of every lynch and almost lynched porkens yet has tunneled me most of the game... Scum

[Tchill13]

not voting porkens due to hard TR of derpy.

[Tchill13]

whymaf has been a part of every lynch and almost lynched porkens yet has tunneled me most of the game... Scum

sergtacos was also a part of every lynch and tried to lynch porkens.

[Tchill13]

VOTE: whymafia

[WhyMafia]

Fuck your misrep. I put klazam at L-1 for 2 reasons. One m, to apply pressure. Two, because we were running low on time. I voted Alisae because he was counter claimed. I also thought he was scum. I was wrong about 1 scum read. Big deal. I defended UC, but nice to know that you choose not to mention that to a list that probabalt didn't even read my interactions with him. If I remember correctly, you didn't even post after Alisae fake claimed.

VOTE: tchill

[Michael22Omega]

I have seen enough.

VOTE: Porkens

Tacos wtf is this? Why didn't you say anything so far?

homecoming week. im partying my ass off.

Okay but this does not mean you can just put someone at l-1 and get away with that
I now think you might be scum if Poke is town because this is like you tried to quick hammer

[Michael22Omega]

Vote Count 1.30

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Klazam (7):Alisae, Sub4hire, Tchill13, Sergtacos, UC Voyager, WhyMafia, Dunkerdoodles

[LYNCH]

Derpy Hooves(2):Boonskiies,Assemblertows

[L-5]

Sergtacos (2): Toranaga, Acidphoenix

[L-5]

Tchill13(1):Klazam

[L-6]

Not voting (1): Derpy Hooves

[/color]

Wait what
My slot didn't even vote the day 1 wagon?

[Michael22Omega]

Vote Count 1.23

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Assemblerotws

(6):

acidphoenix (reaverb slot), Alisae

,

Toranaga (M22O slot),

UC Voyager

,

Sergtacos, Tchill13

[L-1]

Derpy Hooves(4):Boonskiies, WhyMafia, Dunkerdoodles, Assemblertows

[L-3]

Klazam (1):Sub4hire

[L-6]

Not voting (2): Derpy Hooves, Klazam

[/color]

Countdown: (expired on 2017-10-15 15:30:30)

This strongly implies M22O is scum, I could only see an alternative if tacos is scum, which M22O himself has claimed is not the case. (PS if you're not comfortable reading me as Town note the main reason to read M22O scum are the townies directly adjacent to him)

I also did not like the way Toranaga posted about things from forever ago in the thread, it's something I've seen a lot more from scum than Town.

Sorry if I seem disorganized, I haven't read the full thread yet. I'll read everything and post a coherent reads list Saturday.

Also when I did my votal analysis I editted a text document in place instead of writing out my chain of logic, which was dumb. I'll re-do it and post it Saturday or Sunday.

Can somebody give mod-gaming on how many prs there are? My first impression is that somebody must be lying in the claims this Day phase but I'm not familiar with mafiascum meta and have heard setups are more townsided here.

Why did you quote this vote count specifically? like I'm pretty sure if you scroll through the day you'll find tones of vote counts and obviously town voted town. What's the point of his one specifically? just to give evidence I'm scum?

[Michael22Omega]

So, I’m going to do a thing to help solidify who’s scum or not.

The following may or may not be true.
Either WhyMafia or Tchill is a vigilante. WhyMafia explained to me he was the vigilante in the neighborhood and shot Assemble due to the activity level, possibly scum, and because he thought that people would truly see Tchill as scum, because he states that it’s super obvious and that he shouldn’t have to shoot him. This is typically how I like vig shots being done, so I agree with this. If this scenario is not true, neither of you claim it right now, please. He shot at Derpy Nght 1.

Now, Tchill as the hypothetical vigilante chose not to shoot Night 1. Night 2 he mentioned Assemble being a good investigative/vig kill. He shot Assemble night 2.

Now, Porkens is voting Tchill, while calling Why scum, and Rev is pushing Michael as scum, and called the vanilla situation setup, yet on his scum teams, he had Porkens potentially not on the team.

Scum benefits from keeping the Why/Tchill situation in a 1v1, as I don’t believe it’s too hard to figure out that one of them is the vigilante since Michael claimed. Now, Porkens is keeping both of them open, making no cases, and kind of stalling while Reav tries to have multiple options outside of them so that one of Why/Tchill will shoot the other and win the game that way. Right now we’re 3-5, so a mislynch and a miskill wins.

It’s also why Porkens would be wanting Tchill to claim so much, and why it doesn’t make sense for Michael to flat out not care.

This is all hypothetical of course.

So why claimed vigilante in neighborhood and vanilla town in the thread?

[reaverb]

Why did you quote this vote count specifically? like I'm pretty sure if you scroll through the day you'll find tones of vote counts and obviously town voted town. What's the point of his one specifically? just to give evidence I'm scum?

You don't appear to understand votal analysis.

Any L-1 wagon on a townie, but particularly the one quoted in context of it being a Porkens-Derpy-slot counterwagon, has a negligible chance of lacking scum in slots 2-5. Scum would have to be content to sit by while over half of Town mis-wagons a townie. If Prokens is scum, scum would be jumping at the chance to jump to Amman, or if scum are remotely afraid of town jumping onto a scum if the Amman push fails, or if scum are looking to move their votes and the other options look bad, etc.

Other votals have information, but they're less strong because less players on them have flipped, and mostly imply things like "At least one of X or Y is Town", which is not very actionable.

[reaverb]

Anyway let's talk more about the claims:

I looked over the last few completed Minis, and the setups seem to have around 4 "normal" town prs as the max. I found a couple which have 5 town prs, but there's always a catch - normally a couple of the town prs in the 5 town prs are somehow negative utility for Town. Examples: Odd and Even Night Role cops when when of the Mafia was a Weak Doctor, Town Daychat Enabler Neighbor (Neighbor is also more like half a pr, given it's very often Mafia).

None of the claims given are like that. All of them are un-ambiguously pro-Town, no wiggle room to subvert Town expectations and have it be negative utility. Neapolitan, Commuter, Vig, Innocent Child, Jailkeeper, Organzier-role are all clearly +EV Town roles with no possible subversions (except the possibility of the Organizer being scum).

Since the Vig is mechanically known to exist and two others have flipped, I'm pretty sure that at least 2/3 of {Porkens, M22O, Organizer} are scum (assuming Organizer exists, not completely unconvinced that Boonskiies is 1-shot Mafia Neighborer and lying like mad). I think the Organizer should claim or be outed by Why or Boon asap to help us sort through those 3.

I am pretty sure Porkens is one of the scum there, the scenarios where M22O is Scum and Porkens is Town are really weird. I don't see M22O intentionally creating a 1 in 2 with Town!Porkens, so I think the situation it's remotely possible is if scum rolecop'd Porkens N2, which is unlikely as a prior.

[reaverb]

I am pretty sure Porkens is one of the scum there, the scenarios where M22O is Scum and Porkens is Town are really weird. I don't see M22O intentionally creating a 1 in 2 with Town!Porkens, so I think the

only

situation it's remotely possible is if scum rolecop'd Porkens N2, which is unlikely as a prior.

Edit by way of post.

[Porkens]

Why did you quote this vote count specifically? like I'm pretty sure if you scroll through the day you'll find tones of vote counts and obviously town voted town. What's the point of his one specifically? just to give evidence I'm scum?

You don't appear to understand votal analysis.

Any L-1 wagon on a townie, but particularly the one quoted in context of it being a Porkens-Derpy-slot counterwagon, has a negligible chance of lacking scum in slots 2-5. Scum would have to be content to sit by while over half of Town mis-wagons a townie.

If Prokens is scum, scum would be jumping at the chance to jump to Amman, or if scum are remotely afraid of town jumping onto a scum if the Amman push fails, or if scum are looking to move their votes and the other options look bad, etc.

Other votals have information, but they're less strong because less players on them have flipped, and mostly imply things like "At least one of X or Y is Town", which is not very actionable.

Anyway let's talk more about the claims:

I looked over the last few completed Minis, and the setups seem to have around 4 "normal" town prs as the max. I found a couple which have 5 town prs, but there's always a catch - normally a couple of the town prs in the 5 town prs are somehow negative utility for Town. Examples: Odd and Even Night Role cops when when of the Mafia was a Weak Doctor, Town Daychat Enabler Neighbor (Neighbor is also more like half a pr, given it's very often Mafia).

None of the claims given are like that. All of them are un-ambiguously pro-Town, no wiggle room to subvert Town expectations and have it be negative utility. Neapolitan, Commuter, Vig, Innocent Child, Jailkeeper, Organzier-role are all clearly +EV Town roles with no possible subversions (except the possibility of the Organizer being scum).

Since the Vig is mechanically known to exist and two others have flipped, I'm pretty sure that at least 2/3 of {Porkens, M22O, Organizer} are scum (assuming Organizer exists, not completely unconvinced that Boonskiies is 1-shot Mafia Neighborer and lying like mad). I think the Organizer should claim or be outed by Why or Boon asap to help us sort through those 3.

I am pretty sure Porkens is one of the scum

there, the scenarios where M22O is Scum and Porkens is Town are really weird. I don't see M22O intentionally creating a 1 in 2 with Town!Porkens, so I think the situation it's remotely possible is if scum rolecop'd Porkens N2, which is unlikely as a prior.

[Boonskiies]

Sure, Tacos is the Organizer. It’s pretty obvious at this point.

[Boonskiies]

Also, that situation with Why might not have happened, want that to be aware. If that didn’t happen Tchill was vig. If it did, I told Why to claim VT.

[Boonskiies]

I FUCKING LOVE BURRITOS!!!!!!

WhyMafia told me to tell Tacos to say Burrito in thread to confirm that he was in a neighborhood with me.

It is mechnically confirmed that the neighborhood organizer Taco exists.

[Porkens]

Boon, Serg, and Whymafia all confirm eachother town? Is that what you are saying?

[WhyMafia]

Blatant mis rep
I'm confirming that boon and Serg have a chat together

[Sergtacos]

And you and Boon have a chat together too.

I'm also talking with someone else as well.

[Sergtacos]

tchill is scum

VOTE: Tcill