Mini Normal 2035 : Duck Mafia Part 1 : GAME OVER


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Post Post #600 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:48 am

Post by davesaz »

@Tchill, I've been totally open on how crazy the past couple weeks have been. Wednesday was a 14 hour work day. Yesterday was a little shorter but sill more than 8.
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Post Post #601 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:48 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Town reading Unah/Dave/CT.

Leaves the other 4. Not entirely sure the combination, tbh, but like 3/4 of them.

Sure, there are scenarios I can see where I’m wrong about some of my town reads, but I feel they’re Darby less likely.
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Post Post #602 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:18 am

Post by davesaz »

CT's assumption that scum knew Gamma's role is horrible. We have no information suggesting that's the case, and it's a totally valid strategy to kill someone who is townread. FL carried some scum equity from the gamibt so if he's town I could see scum leaving him alive. I'm very much a possible ML target for lurking so scum have no reason to kill me. Lurkers in general are ML targets if they're town, so leave out Reundo and Nonny too. Once you start identifying kills that are potentially worse than Gamma, the more it seems unlikely that scum knew his role and more likely he was just a priority to NK because there are better mislynches available.

What would take more reading would be finding out
why
CT's making that assumption. The stated reasons don't make a lot of sense to me.

I do dig the idea of VT trying to draw a nk for a possible watcher / tracker. And claiming to attempt to avoid lynch is something that I can see fitting CT's apparent personality from the previous game. So if the even night doc -> VT claim is real it's likely to be town motivation. Not enough to conftown but likely.
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Post Post #603 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:37 am

Post by Completly Trustworthy »

The reason why I assumed that Gamma's role was known to the scum at first is because I generally expect the scumteam to prefer killing PR's over vanilla townies. I normally wouldn't expect to scumteam to overlook a PR claim and kill someone else who is likely to be a VT. However, I can see why you think differently Dave. Perhaps the point of the kill was to get rid of a widely townread player while keeping around a lot of mislynches.
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Post Post #604 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:53 am

Post by Completly Trustworthy »

Nonny, I wasn't implying you were expressing doubt about me surviving the night in . The reason why I think you misrepped me was given in . As for expressing doubt over me living, I felt like qualified as that.
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Post Post #605 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:04 am

Post by Completly Trustworthy »

Also, I didn't like the fact that Nonny said their vote wouldn't look like OMGUS. If she had voted right then, would anyone have thought of that as an OMGUS vote? That and their insistence in that they weren't using ATE seem to me like her being overly self-conscious about what others think of her.
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Post Post #606 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:08 am

Post by Completly Trustworthy »

Flavor Leaf, why do you think that Davesaz typically lurks? In my most recent game, HMS Erebus, he was one of the more active players.
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Post Post #607 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:37 am

Post by nonny »

In post 605, Completly Trustworthy wrote:Also, I didn't like the fact that Nonny said their vote wouldn't look like OMGUS. If she had voted right then, would anyone have thought of that as an OMGUS vote? That and their insistence in that they weren't using ATE seem to me like her being overly self-conscious about what others think of her.
I said it would look like omgus but wasn’t coming from that place. I am self conscious as a person and it leaks into all of my games, look at any of the newbie game I’ve played since July, not purposeful but just real life character flaw the leaches into my game play.

Dave’s post re:CT gambit claim I can see and better explains CT’s possible intention but still not sure I like the whole scenario.

FL can you say more on your Dave read?
*insert bad joke here*
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Post Post #608 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:49 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

In post 606, Completly Trustworthy wrote:Flavor Leaf, why do you think that Davesaz typically lurks? In my most recent game, HMS Erebus, he was one of the more active players.
Hmm. Idk. Generally he’s not really on my radar until he doesn’t in games. He was scum in one of my stronger town games, and I caught him out without him even really putting any sort of fight.

Unah, you were scum that game. Remember? You were traitor and early day 1 you were super town read and i was like nah.

Then you got shot, but i used your posts to find Dave and the other scum partner. :lol:

A SK won that game...
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Post Post #609 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:50 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

In post 482, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 473, davesaz wrote:
In post 232, nonny wrote:
In post 231, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 229, Flavor Leaf wrote:Not gonna lie, I’m pretty pissed about that night kill.
But it makes sense.

Which is why this next part is gonna be fun.

I’m an odd night watcher. 2 people targeted Profii last night.

I am disappoint. Very disappointed.
You don’t have to say names but do you know which two?
This could be scum trying to check whether it's safe to lie or not.

Yeah, i thought this as well.

This is the most work I’ve ever seen Dave do, for what it’s worth. I’ve seen him as scum more often than town, too.
I had even posted my liking of Dave’s posts since yesterday. I feel we’d been pretty linked up, so i felt w43 coming from the same town perspective.
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Post Post #610 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:51 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

He was also analyzing a lot of FA and nonny yesterday, and I took notice of all that and was interested in responses.
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Post Post #611 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:07 pm

Post by davesaz »

I liked and from Una.
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Post Post #612 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:09 pm

Post by davesaz »

FA doesn't seem to be following through on anything.
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Post Post #613 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:11 pm

Post by davesaz »

I don't think Reundo answered the question in but he's VLA so guess I'll probably be waiting on that.
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Post Post #614 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:41 pm

Post by Completly Trustworthy »

I would like Tchill to answer the question I gave him in .
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Post Post #615 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by Reundo »

In post 577, FA_Q2 wrote: Scum is ct/una
Who's town?
In post 610, Flavor Leaf wrote:He was also analyzing a lot of FA and nonny yesterday, and I took notice of all that and was interested in responses.
He only commented on one post from each... I wouldn't consider that "a lot" of analysis.
In post 613, davesaz wrote:I don't think Reundo answered the question in but he's VLA so guess I'll probably be waiting on that.
You linked the wrong post here... I'm pretty sure you're talking about my wilky vote? It was because all of his contributions were sparse and lazy -- I think he only threw out one scum-read and two town-reads the whole game, and they weren't supported by more than a sentence or two. You also said that it "wasn't clear" who I'd rather see lynched over Tchill at the time, but I actually don't see how it's unclear at all, considering I've stated/implied wilky/nonny as scum-reads and tchill as null multiple times. I'm not going to restate my reads every time I vote someone.

@nonny, when you get around to your reread, can you make a readslist? I haven't seen a lot of reads from you, and even less explanation of said reads.
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Post Post #616 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:55 pm

Post by davesaz »

Yes, it was 474. I had asked that question to find out if "other people" were the ones you had voted (Nonny, Wilky) or someone else. I probably glazed the block of text in the post that Tchill was replying to.
Do you still SR Tchill btw?
I too thought Flavor Leaf's reply was a little shallow but he's my strongest TR. But here's a followup on that topic, I'm curious whether you're taking FL's word for what I've been doing or if you actually know yourself.
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Post Post #617 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Eh, it was enough, or strong enough on point to what I felt exactly, so I felt a sense of mindmelding. Plenty of things that lead me to believe that, more of a timing, and this is the first time I’ve ever felt like Dave and I are on the same page analytically.
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Post Post #618 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:34 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

@Unah - Wifoming scum with this one, but I’m trusting you with it. No further comments shall be made with this, as it makes it irrelevant.
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Post Post #619 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:38 pm

Post by nonny »

Request noted Reundo. May not be until back from trip, going to attempt reread in carbut not sure how it’ll go while mobile.
*insert bad joke here*
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Post Post #620 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:59 pm

Post by UnaBombaH »

In post 618, Flavor Leaf wrote:@Unah - Wifoming scum with this one, but I’m trusting you with it. No further comments shall be made with this, as it makes it irrelevant.
I was just about to suggest something like this to you, but I hear you loud and clear! :lol:

Let's focus on who to lynch today instead then.
If I'm reading this situation correctly, we more or less have to land a scum!lynch today or we lose.
Giving us something like a ~20% chance to survive one more day with a mislynch today..depending how good I am with my guesses.


Which lynch feels like the safest to everyone?

I'm really finding it hard to shake my suspicions towards CT+Chill.
Every post from either of them today has only strengthened my pairing-read of them.
And if I've understood correctly, Chill "scumreads" CT and CT now "scumreads" Chill?

Unless I'm absolutely wrong with thoughts here, I'd say there's close to a 100% chance at least one of them is scum! :lol:
Because the way I see it, it's either that they are both scum and trying to do their best to distance, or one of them is scum, and doing their best to tie in with the other to maybe get a mislynch on them tomorrow..
Does that make sense to anyone else?
And if it does, let's assume one of them is town.
Which of them?
:?
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed."
-Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
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Post Post #621 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:51 am

Post by Tchill13 »

Somebody say something I want to see takes on unas idea lol.
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Post Post #622 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:46 am

Post by UnaBombaH »

In post 621, Tchill13 wrote:Somebody say something I want to see takes on unas idea lol.
I know it would be silly to ask of you whether you agree with my scumread on you two, but I'll phrase it like this:
are you objectively able to see where I'm coming from?
:]
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed."
-Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
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Post Post #623 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:58 am

Post by Completly Trustworthy »

I personally think the idea of me reversing my claim to protect Tchill13 is quite silly. There is quite likely a protective role in the setup as Una said earlier and roleblocker is a common scum role. Therefore; undoing my claim wouldn't prove Tchill innocent if I'm scum since a future roleblocker flip or protective claim would uncomfirm him as town. Also, going into this day, there were five people(me, Nonny, FA, Reundo, and Davesaz) who I think seemed more likely to get lynched than him. It's bad strategy to temporarily clear a member of the scumteam who is already in a decent position at the cost of making someone else in it look really suspicious, increasing the chance of a scum lynch.
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Post Post #624 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:08 am

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 622, UnaBombaH wrote:
In post 621, Tchill13 wrote:Somebody say something I want to see takes on unas idea lol.
I know it would be silly to ask of you whether you agree with my scumread on you two, but I'll phrase it like this:
are you objectively able to see where I'm coming from?
:]
You're paranoid as hell but yes I see why you'd think something like that. Has a little to do with conf bias and a lot to do with meta imo.
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