Mini Normal 2052: Mixtape Mafia [Game Over]

[Elbirn]

VC 3.01

Persona La Ave w/ Baraka - One

votes

[1] Delta Diamond

: Springtrap

[1] Springtrap

: Delta Diamond

[1] Jenga

: PvtUrist

[1] 0verki11

: texcat

[5] Not Voting

: Vorkuta, 0verki11, Jenga, Gamma Emerald, singletonking

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Day 3 deadline is in

: (expired on 2019-02-12 00:00:00)

Mod Notes

:

[Gamma Emerald]

Are you Loud in both roles Gamma?

Right I forgot it was loud visitor and not FV for the odd part
I compressed the info when reading it and didn't think to fix it backwards in my brain. Same function though.

[singletonking]

Sorry, busy day yesterday

I'll finish off the massclaim: I'm a VT.

Overkill, to be clear, you're a town Neighbour with no other abilities?

[singletonking]

The massclaim holds me back on my Springtrap scumread
I mean on one hand, as mentioned, I don't get why Springtrap is still alive and not blocked

On the other hand, 2 Masons + Loud Visitor/Motion detector feels like too little town power

[PvtUrist]

im confused on why the hell springtrap is still alive and that makes me worried.

is why springtrap is alive

[PvtUrist]

maf would kill the person capable of getting more innos

The problem here is that this would be much more true tomorrow.

If Springtrap is town, and he is the last of the town power, the likelihood of a scum win is actually quite high if scum push through a mislynch on him today.

Green springtrap lynch --> nightkill on one of the three quasi-masons leaves us in non-stop lylo through game end.

At first you might think, "well we'd have two masons, that doesn't sound so bad"

but actually it is. We are likely to get to five way, given that we would have a 60% chance of hitting scum in the 3/5 non-investigated players.

However, things start looking rough on day 5 when we would be down to 1 innocent child, 2 scum, and 2 unknown towns. That's actually 50% scum win right there.

THEN, 3-way looks gross with 1 scum and two towns and no innocent children left. I think scum wins these scenarios somewhat more than 50% of the time.

If Delta Diamond is scum and scum have a rolecop/neapolitan/whatever, then they would know that the town power structure is already revealed, at which point the Springtrap mislynch is possible and likely gamewinning for scum.

However, things start looking rough on day 5 when we would be down to 1 innocent child, 2 scum, and 2 unknown towns.

2 scum

this is scum slip

[texcat]

Are you Loud in both roles Gamma?

Right I forgot it was loud visitor and not FV for the odd part
I compressed the info when reading it and didn't think to fix it backwards in my brain. Same function though.

Did Overkill get notified that you visited him last night?

[Jenga]

Pvt you don't think we have 3 scum????

[0verki11]

Sorry, busy day yesterday

I'll finish off the massclaim: I'm a VT.

Overkill, to be clear, you're a town Neighbour with no other abilities?

Yes for the last time.

[Jenga]

Ohh are you confused because that part should have said day 6?

[Jenga]

No my daycount was right at that point, now I'm just confusing myself

The problem here is that this would be much more true tomorrow.

If Springtrap is town, and he is the last of the town power, the likelihood of a scum win is actually quite high if scum push through a mislynch on him today.

Green springtrap lynch --> nightkill on one of the three quasi-masons leaves us in non-stop lylo through game end.

At first you might think, "well we'd have two masons, that doesn't sound so bad"

but actually it is. We are likely to get to five way, given that we would have a 60% chance of hitting scum in the 3/5 non-investigated players.

However, things start looking rough on day 5 when we would be down to 1 innocent child, 2 scum, and 2 unknown towns. That's actually 50% scum win right there.

THEN, 3-way looks gross with 1 scum and two towns and no innocent children left. I think scum wins these scenarios somewhat more than 50% of the time.

If Delta Diamond is scum and scum have a rolecop/neapolitan/whatever, then they would know that the town power structure is already revealed, at which point the Springtrap mislynch is possible and likely gamewinning for scum.

Let me try to break down what I was thinking here more clearly since I think the way I described it there was maybe confusing

Day 3: 6:3 --> {Mislynch Springtrap, nightkill}
-->
Day 4: 4:3 {2 ics, 2 unknown, 3 scum} --> 60% chance to lynch scum (presume successful lynch is scum because otherwise game is over) [this gamestate is why people tend to think that killing the PT cop would make sense for scum without thinking about the rest of the game]
-->
Day 5: 3:2 {1 ic, 2 unknown, 2 scum} --> 50% chance to lynch scum (presume successful lynch of scum because otherwise game is over but odds are not great here)
-->
Day 6: 2:1 {0 ics, 2 unknown, 1 scum} --> less than 50% chance to lynch scum (statistically likely game loss)

Now that is before Gamma's claim. Gamma was already one of the IC slots, unfortunately, so the only value could be out of the motion detect but even then I don't think it tells us much outside of maybe making us second guess the setup spec again, which I'm just... kinda not ready for rn

That is why I think Springtrap is alive and the reasoning that him being alive means he should be lynched is why I was looking at DD as susp.

[Delta Diamond]

Neighborizer/2 Masons/Fruit Vendor and Motion Detector

is for sure enough town power, if you just have a Mafia PT cop and 2 goons.

Neighborizer/2 Masons/Fruit Vendor Motion Detector/PT Cop could lead to so many innos. PT cop needs two non-mason clears to basically have a third of the player list cleared of being everything but traitor.

without Gammas claim I might buy it but there’s no way with the claim I buy it

I figured there was a bit more town pwr

[Delta Diamond]

Ohh are you confused because that part should have said day 6?

yeah

that’s how I read it at first as well then reread it and realized what you meant

[Delta Diamond]

theres a world where the PT cop is town and gamma is a traitor and the loud visit is meant to signify to mafia who she is, and traitor weakens PT cop a bit

sorry just saw loud and not fruit

[Delta Diamond]

that could be it I guess maybe I’m tunneling

but all those Town PRs even if they are weak is so much with a PT cop possible innos

it’s not like a traffic analyst it is a full blown pt cop and with masons now confirmed that’s just so townsided

[PvtUrist]

We're not lynching Springtrap today.

[PvtUrist]

{Urist, stk, Gamma, Springtrap}
{Vorkuta, DD, Overki11}
{}
{Jenga, texcat}

Is what we're currently working with.

We lynch within Jenga!texcat and play off the flip tomorrow.

[Delta Diamond]

Jenga has been way more solvey and genuine and has some conflicting associative with ST, so I think

VOTE: texcat

then

[PvtUrist]

Jenga has been way more solvey and genuine and has some conflicting associative with ST, so I think

I'll agree on 1/2 of that solvey+genuine statement.

VOTE: texcat would do.

[PvtUrist]

So far Jenga's content for the day has been;

- Push against DD and ST (scum motivated)

- Fluff posts

- #723 + #760 that can come from either allignments (this explains what I feel about it)

So I retract my previous statement, Jenga is neither solvey nor genuine.

[Gamma Emerald]

Are you Loud in both roles Gamma?

Right I forgot it was loud visitor and not FV for the odd part
I compressed the info when reading it and didn't think to fix it backwards in my brain. Same function though.

Did Overkill get notified that you visited him last night?

No.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think tex's questioning towards me rn is towny so can we stop voting him

[PvtUrist]

How are we feeling about this Gamma?

[Springtrap]

I feel as though we haven't really lead the town well here then, as the PRs.

I've been quiet so I could stay till late game but the scum are putting doubt in me and my claim.

Gamma I checked day 1 so I honestly probably wasted it considering he's claimed PR, and STK was fine enough, though I'm worried for a different reason.

Pvt as what amounts to an IC now that your partner is dead, your opinion matters and I'll probably follow you on tex considering my townread was based on her being crappy town hammering Clem and not scum coordinated.

Gamma, taking in the events of day 1 and 2, has tex stood out before that moment? What else can we townread them for?

[singletonking]

V/LA until 6 Feb

sorry