Open 88 - Polygamist Mafia (Game Over) before 650


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Post Post #100 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:13 pm

Post by Goatrevolt »

farside22 wrote:
Goatrevolt wrote:What didn't you like, my actual analysis, or the idea of random voting?
I don't know if it is accurate. I don't like the idea of it at all. The fact that you are checking it is weird. I mean really you think random voting will work because why exactly?
Strictly mathematically there's a 60% chance of the town winning by voting entirely randomly. Originally my reasons for checking the math was because I felt there was no chance that randomly voting could be a good thing and wanted to point it out to Jebus. Strictly speaking numbers though, it's actually not horrible. The issue lies in the fact that we have a chance to improve that number through good scumhunting, and it takes away all fun and point of playing to just rely on random voting.

What exactly do you find scummy about my actions? The fact that I even bothered to check the math in the first place?
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Post Post #101 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:16 pm

Post by farside22 »

Basically yes why would you check something based on randomness? Is that the true spirit of this game? Do you really believe those votes wouldn't be manipulated in some way?
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Post Post #102 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:23 pm

Post by Goatrevolt »

farside22 wrote:Basically yes why would you check something based on randomness? Is that the true spirit of this game? Do you really believe those votes wouldn't be manipulated in some way?
I mentioned why I originally checked the math in my last post. How would people be able to manipulate a randomly chosen lynch?
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Post Post #103 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:26 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

Vote Count


Zoolander (2) kloud1516, Jahudo
Farside22 (0)
The Pope's Tiara (0)
LlamaFluff (1) Farside22
Goatrevolt (1) Caboose
Jahudo (1) Zoolander
OpposedForce (0)
armlx (0)
Caboose (2) OpposedForce, Goatrevolt
3fj (1) The Pope's Tiara
kloud1516 (2) Adel, 3fj
Adel (2) LlamaFluff, armlx

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Last edited by Xtoxm on Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post Post #104 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:27 pm

Post by farside22 »

Goatrevolt wrote:
farside22 wrote:Basically yes why would you check something based on randomness? Is that the true spirit of this game? Do you really believe those votes wouldn't be manipulated in some way?
I mentioned why I originally checked the math in my last post. How would people be able to manipulate a randomly chosen lynch?
Look I'm scum I "randomly" choose a player that is not part of my group. Oh look I have 3 other people who are part of my group who will "randomly" choose someone that is not part of our group. Oh but make sure we aren't all on the same wagon. We will use our pair lover on on vote and you guys use your lover pair on another person and we will win before you know it. BLEK
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Post Post #105 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:29 pm

Post by farside22 »

The first person that takes that comment as me being scum should be shot. That is a fake conversation.
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Post Post #106 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:33 pm

Post by Goatrevolt »

Nah, when we're talking about random lynches, we mean entirely randomly. As in like a dice roll, entirely free of any manipulation.
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Post Post #107 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:40 pm

Post by farside22 »

Goatrevolt wrote:Nah, when we're talking about random lynches, we mean entirely randomly. As in like a dice roll, entirely free of any manipulation.
How do you know what Jebus means?
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Post Post #108 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:49 pm

Post by Goatrevolt »

farside22 wrote:
Goatrevolt wrote:Nah, when we're talking about random lynches, we mean entirely randomly. As in like a dice roll, entirely free of any manipulation.
How do you know what Jebus means?
Actually, I really don't. I pretty much just assumed that's what he meant by random lynch because that was my interpretation. Judging by your reaction though, maybe I assumed too much and people were thinking of it differently than I was. Considering he wasn't interested in throwing his own name in the ballot, it's definitely possible I was misinterpreting him.
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Post Post #109 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:16 pm

Post by armlx »

Considering he wasn't interested in throwing his own name in the ballot, it's definitely possible I was misinterpreting him.
This is a pretty big issue.
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Post Post #110 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:53 pm

Post by farside22 »

armlx wrote:
Considering he wasn't interested in throwing his own name in the ballot, it's definitely possible I was misinterpreting him.
This is a pretty big issue.
It got quiet all the sudden. Any other comments you want to make about Goats comment Armlx?
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Post Post #111 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:13 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

farside22 wrote:Llama post 54 just uses quotes and very little to confirm his vote on Jebus. Post 68 gives me bad vibes. I think what was stated on how people interacted even for random should be noted
Yeah by page three I dont think anyone can make multiple paragraph cases. Jebus had done two things that I saw as scummy though so the post was made to basically reinforce my vote as most people still considered that the random stage.

In post 68 I encouraged scumhunting given that I assumed people were starting to say that the first three pages of randoms were useable as evidence on page three. I never said they should be disregarded, but used at a later point in the game when their ties were more visable.

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Post Post #112 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:40 pm

Post by kloud1516 »

Sorry everyone, school just started again and this week has been more than a tad crazy. I will have limited access until Friday evening, and I will be on almost continually (I hope) on the weekends. Now, down to business.

First of all: Welcome, Adel. Thank you for replacing in.

Second of all:
unvote


Thirdly: I feel that I am going to have to read over the last page and a half so that I make sure I haven't missed something. Hopefully it will not take me long. I will try to post something of value later tonight, but I am not making any promises. If I don't get something up, I promise I will tomorrow.
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Post Post #113 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 5:19 pm

Post by OpposedForce »

Goatrevolt wrote:Nah, when we're talking about random lynches, we mean entirely randomly. As in like a dice roll, entirely free of any manipulation.
I entirely don't agree with this. Like I stated before there is the percentage of hitting scum but also the percentage of hitting town. If we were to lynch town then we would have no evidence the next day to make any assumpation on who is scum and then if we random lynch again then although the chance of hitting scum is higher there is also the dangerous probability of hittting town and we can't risk that.

Take for example if we do decide on a random lynch:

Day 1:

-Town majority decides to lynch based on a dice roll.
-Two possible outcomes can come out of this
A. Dice hits scum and we win the game
B. Dice hits town and two townies are lynched
- If B happens then it goes to Day 2

Day 2:
-Town has no information to go on from previous day except the roles of two deceased townies and narrowing the choices of lynches.
-If town decides to randomly lynch again then
A. We hit scum and win the game with higher percentage
B.We hit town and then two more townies are lynched.
-If B happens then it goes to Day 3

Day 3
-Town still yeilds no information except the roles of two more dead townies.
-If town yet again decides to randomly lynch then
A. We hit scum and win the game with a much higher percentage
B.We hit town and then lynch two more townies losing the game.

While the percentage of a scum lynch increases through each day of a random lynch there always remains the probability of hitting town through the lynch. If town just uses evidence and facts then they have a much better of hitting scum with town discussion and don't have to spend any town casualities or risks. It's much better to play the game normally then to randomly lynch because with a normal play it makes it much easier for everybody.
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Post Post #114 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 7:05 pm

Post by armlx »

It got quiet all the sudden. Any other comments you want to make about Goats comment Armlx?
No more then the vote I have already placed.

OpposedForce, there is no Day 3. There is only D1 and maybe D2 in this game.
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Post Post #115 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 7:13 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

OpposedForce wrote: I entirely don't agree with this. Like I stated before there is the percentage of hitting scum but also the percentage of hitting town. If we were to lynch town then we would have no evidence the next day to make any assumpation on who is scum and then if we random lynch again then although the chance of hitting scum is higher there is also the dangerous probability of hittting town and we can't risk that.
This is a complete misinterpretation of what goat was saying there. He is against the dice roll vote and was explaining what he made Jebus' plan out to be. So far Jebus is the only person who has suggested a random vote plan. It is well established at this point that we are not going to throw dice to try and win this game but scumhunt (and use connections from random voting that someone still needs to explain to me).

Also, why are you still voting for Caboose? You have mentioned Jebus' plan a few times already, but apart from that you have stayed out of all discussion. This doesnt line up with your vote, as you oppose the plan but at the same time are merely shooting it down. So: Does Jebus suggesting this plan make her more likely scum or town? If scum why arent you voting Jebus?

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Post Post #116 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 7:33 pm

Post by OpposedForce »

LlamaFluff wrote:
OpposedForce wrote: I entirely don't agree with this. Like I stated before there is the percentage of hitting scum but also the percentage of hitting town. If we were to lynch town then we would have no evidence the next day to make any assumpation on who is scum and then if we random lynch again then although the chance of hitting scum is higher there is also the dangerous probability of hittting town and we can't risk that.
This is a complete misinterpretation of what goat was saying there. He is against the dice roll vote and was explaining what he made Jebus' plan out to be. So far Jebus is the only person who has suggested a random vote plan. It is well established at this point that we are not going to throw dice to try and win this game but scumhunt (and use connections from random voting that someone still needs to explain to me).

Also, why are you still voting for Caboose? You have mentioned Jebus' plan a few times already, but apart from that you have stayed out of all discussion. This doesnt line up with your vote, as you oppose the plan but at the same time are merely shooting it down. So: Does Jebus suggesting this plan make her more likely scum or town? If scum why arent you voting Jebus?

FoS OpposedForce
I never accused Goat of anything. I only disagreed with the sentiment and gave my own thoughts to it. IF I did disagree with him then I would of pointed it out and even responded to his last post where he mentions randomly lynching.

To respond to me "staying out of the discussion" I've been busy for the past few days and couldn't really get into posting my thoughts and discussing things. I tried to stay online and get active but real life gets into the way. My vote for Caboose was random and I forgot to unvote.
Unvote:caboose


Also why are you pointing that I should be voting Jebus because I disagree with the thing? Yes I do disagree with the random lynching act but at this point I don't think it warrants a vote.
armlx wrote: OpposedForce, there is no Day 3. There is only D1 and maybe D2 in this game.
Checked back and saw what you were talking back. A miscalculation on my part. (never been good with statisitcs and numbers) However it kind of reaffirms on my opposition of randomly lynching because it even puts us in a worser position if we mislynch day 1.
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Post Post #117 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 8:10 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

@mod - Mass prods please?
Zoolander prodded.

3fj and The Pope's Tiara have already been prodded.

Everyone else has posted recently.
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Post Post #118 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 8:22 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

OpposedForce wrote:To respond to me "staying out of the discussion" I've been busy for the past few days and couldn't really get into posting my thoughts and discussing things. I tried to stay online and get active but real life gets into the way
You have more posts then me, yet you really havent contributed much (random, massclaim stuff, dice roll, and talking about setup). The problem with arguing over the dice roll vote is that we all know its a stupid idea. By simply stating what everyone knows you add nothing to the conversation but appear better for saying what everyone knows to be true. Its just filler to make you more town looking. The other things you have talked about also do nothing to advance scumhunting, more filler.
Also why are you pointing that I should be voting Jebus because I disagree with the thing? Yes I do disagree with the random lynching act but at this point I don't think it warrants a vote.
Well I tend to be a little agressive and vote quite a bit, so it may be a difference in playstyle. From what I have read though, Jebus seems to be at the top of your scum list, yes your vote was on Caboose, and now is in your pocket. You have however avoided my main question so I will ask it again here.

1) Do you think Jebus suggesting dice roll makes him more or less likely to be scum?
2) If its more likely, why arent you voting Jebus

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Post Post #119 (ISO) » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:29 am

Post by Jahudo »

Jebus wrote:A random lynch to start off, at least, can help kick-start something, anyway.
This quote makes me think he wanted a day 1 lynch without any furthur attempts to scumhunt. You would have to guess if kick-starting meant he was more open to scumhunting in day 2 or not. Like I previously said his idea was bad and scummy, standing up for himself and not slinking into the shadows gave me a little doubt, but now he's been replaced so how does that factor into adel now?
Goatrevolt wrote:The random lynching plan isn't that great. In addition to the stuff I put on my cons list against it, there's also the idea that if we randomly lynch day 1 we may attempt to non-randomly lynch day 2, which could cause mayhem, and easily lower our chances of winning significantly. There are simply more reasons and more benefits to scum hunting and trying to actually find and eliminate scum that way.
I think Goat has made is clear that he wanted scumhunting before a lynch, regardless of how long and in-depth we go to make our choices. He also seems to be against the random lynch day 1 and scum-hunt day 2 but again I can only guess what Jebus was thinking.

@Opposed Force: was your argument directed more towards Goat or Jebus or about equal? I don't think he named names.

Also where are Zoolander and the Pope? Is this synchronized lurking? (couldn't resist the joke but I'm still curious)
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Post Post #120 (ISO) » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:34 am

Post by armlx »

Also where are Zoolander and the Pope? Is this synchronized lurking? (couldn't resist the joke but I'm still curious)
Probably just flaked.
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Post Post #121 (ISO) » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:34 am

Post by Goatrevolt »

Jahudo wrote:
Jebus wrote:A random lynch to start off, at least, can help kick-start something, anyway.
This quote makes me think he wanted a day 1 lynch without any furthur attempts to scumhunt. You would have to guess if kick-starting meant he was more open to scumhunting in day 2 or not. Like I previously said his idea was bad and scummy, standing up for himself and not slinking into the shadows gave me a little doubt, but now he's been replaced so how does that factor into adel now?
Yeah, upon further review, I think I was wrong in my interpretation of what Jebus was talking about. I think he wanted to randomly decide a lynch for the purpose of kickstarting discussion, rather than try to break this specific game type through randomized lynches, which is what I assumed. The questions then become, what exactly was a random
lynch
going to do in terms of kickstarting discussion. I'm really disappointed he replaced out, because I want to interrogate him on this.

His replacement at least was stated to be due to computer issues, and I see no reason not to just simply believe him on that. Thus I'm not going to really take it as an alignment tell. I've often seen scum replace out when pressured because they basically "give up" but Jebus wasn't really under a lot of pressure, and his computer issue excuse makes sense.
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Post Post #122 (ISO) » Thu Aug 14, 2008 12:30 pm

Post by OpposedForce »

LlamaFluff wrote:
OpposedForce wrote:To respond to me "staying out of the discussion" I've been busy for the past few days and couldn't really get into posting my thoughts and discussing things. I tried to stay online and get active but real life gets into the way
You have more posts then me, yet you really havent contributed much (random, massclaim stuff, dice roll, and talking about setup). The problem with arguing over the dice roll vote is that we all know its a stupid idea. By simply stating what everyone knows you add nothing to the conversation but appear better for saying what everyone knows to be true. Its just filler to make you more town looking. The other things you have talked about also do nothing to advance scumhunting, more filler.
Also why are you pointing that I should be voting Jebus because I disagree with the thing? Yes I do disagree with the random lynching act but at this point I don't think it warrants a vote.
Well I tend to be a little agressive and vote quite a bit, so it may be a difference in playstyle. From what I have read though, Jebus seems to be at the top of your scum list, yes your vote was on Caboose, and now is in your pocket. You have however avoided my main question so I will ask it again here.

1) Do you think Jebus suggesting dice roll makes him more or less likely to be scum?
2) If its more likely, why arent you voting Jebus

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vote OpposedForce
I posted the random lynch outcome because I was throwing in my opinion and how it's a bad idea to do. Apparently there was still some confusion over it so you saying I did it just to make me look more town is bullshit. I think your trying to find the most idiotic reasons to place a safe vote on me. Also couldn't I do the same thing to you?
LlamaFluff wrote:
armlx wrote:This is where we need adel. One of those diagram thingies would be great here.
What we also need is some scumhunting
LlamaFluff wrote:
armlx wrote:
What we also need is some scumhunting
This is true, and the diagram is one method of doing so (that I usually don't care enough about to use).
I just dont see what an overanalysis of the first three pages of votes will accomplish at this point that simple scumhunting cant,
I dont think many if any have even cast something more then a random. Ususally voting history doesnt even come into play as concrete evidence untill late in the game.
Your logic onto me for posting filler can apply onto you so that's where your case on me fails.

And before anyone asks yes I do suspect Jebus in fact I have a few suspects at the moment that I've found suspicous. I'm not voting yet because I want discussion to further and see what everybody gives their take on.
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Post Post #123 (ISO) » Thu Aug 14, 2008 12:32 pm

Post by OpposedForce »

Jahudo wrote:
@Opposed Force: was your argument directed more towards Goat or Jebus or about equal? I don't think he named names.
I didn't direct it towards anyone but I gave my inital disagreement with it and any suspiscions I had I didn't show it in that post.
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Post Post #124 (ISO) » Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:30 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

OpposedForce wrote:Your logic onto me for posting filler can apply onto you so that's where your case on me fails.

And before anyone asks yes I do suspect Jebus in fact I have a few suspects at the moment that I've found suspicous. I'm not voting yet because I want discussion to further and see what everybody gives their take on.
Actually with less posts then you I have been pushing more people, both Jebus and you. While you have spoken ill about Jebus' plan, you did not really take any stance towards his alignment untill I more recently half forced you to. Looking back at your posts, you have taken no stance on anyone really, apart from a random on Caboose. Since then all you have done is disagreed, and when pressured, said Jebus was suspicious along with a few others. You still arent voting.

I also dont like your "I want other peoples opinions" reasoning for holding out on acting on any of your suspicions. If you have suspicions you act on them, you dont just keep them to yourself and modify them when everyone else has checked in. I would at least prefer to hear your LoS before other people start putting theirs out there if not even get a vote out of you, even though im pretty sure im going to get OMGUSed
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