Open 101 - Two of Four - Game over before 712

[Ripley]

I was thinking about possible partial claim strategies, though I hadn't thought of this one in particular - maybe because I never played a game that was known to have a miller before.

If we do this, I'm not sure the approach you've used of just asking a miller, if any, to step forward, would necessarily be the best. By "the best" I mean the approach most likely to present the scum with problems. But I haven't thought about this in any depth yet.

[veerus]

Isn't the point of setups where not all of the possible roles are present, to discourage mass claims?

And how is a miller claim a good idea if we don't even know if there are cops in the setup?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Isn't the point of setups where not all of the possible roles are present, to discourage mass claims?

And how is a miller claim a good idea if we don't even know if there are cops in the setup?

I support this post. Massclaims in this setup are not good. Why out the miller if we don't even know there is a cop?

[Kaiveran]

Agreed, if there's no cop, the miller is just there to prevent us knowing if there's a Cop or not and isn't really prudent to know.

I'll be gone over the next two days, so don't replace me.

[ThAdmiral]

Well I figured one of two things would have happened,

miller claimed miller - if there is a cop, probably a good idea, if there is no cop probably bad idea
scum claimed miller - this would have been after everybody posted, thinking it would be a safeish claim, then we could hopefully catch them in a lie later on (once both other roles had been revealed or counterclaim). although the idea of claiming seems to have been shot down, so no chance of this anymore.

[Ripley]

ThAdmiral - here is exactly what you said:

By the way - millers (if any) should claim now.

I think that is generally the best play, although people are welcome to dispute.

I got from this, maybe wrongly, that your use of the word "generally" was an indication that this miller business was not an unfamilar situation to you and that you'd either played in or read previous games where this strategy (having the miller, if any, claim) had been used. It certainly doesn't read to me as if this is something you had just thought up. Also the way you kicked off with "Millers (if any) should claim now" seems like a pretty clear instruction, even when followed by a note that people are welcome to dispute, as opposed to, say, "Shall we discuss the strategy of having millers claim now?"

Can you clarify please? Have you seen this claim strategy used before, or did you just think of it?

[ThAdmiral]

I've played in non-open games with millers before and the rule there is if you are a miller you should claim day 1.
It avoids the mess later on if the miller is investigated and then claims miller and, inevitably, no one believes them and they get lynched.

[veerus]

This isn't a closed set-up though...

[ThAdmiral]

thanks veerus

[veerus]

point is -- why did you suggest it when it doesn't apply?

[SilverPhoenix]

I've played in non-open games with millers before and the rule there is if you are a miller you should claim day 1.
It avoids the mess later on if the miller is investigated and then claims miller and, inevitably, no one believes them and they get lynched.

Wait, why would that happen in a non-open game? The players would have no clue if there was the possibility of a miller or not. It makes sense in a semi-open or open game when the possibility is explicit, but not in a non-open, as it is just futile.

[ThAdmiral]

@ silverphoenix: if there is a miller in a non-open game it implies there is a cop.

@ veerus: i figured the same logic would apply without actually thinking it through.

[SilverPhoenix]

@ silverphoenix: if there is a miller in a non-open game it implies there is a cop.

That's highly subjective, isn't it? I mean, people are putting nurses without doctors, macho cops without doctors, etc. in games. The era of dependent roles is pretty much over.
But all of that is irrelevant, as this is an open game with the explicit possibility of a miller. If there is one, he should claim, as obviously there may or may not be a cop to prove that. But he should claim D2, and I mean right as D2 starts (not after a possible guilty investigation by the possible cop).

[SilverPhoenix]

EDWOP: (not after a possible

revealed

guilty investigation by the possible cop).

[veerus]

If there's a miller, a D2 claim may not be a bad idea though I'm still not sure I would agree with the merits of it without having a cop in the set up.

...where is everyone? Half the people have barely made any posts in the game.

[ThAdmiral]

@ silver: that sounds like a better plan.

@ veerus: true, very low activity. I think its due to thanksgiving weekend.

[Ripley]

If there's a miller, a D2 claim may not be a bad idea though I'm still not sure I would agree with the merits of it without having a cop in the set up.

Well, we may well reach the start of Day 2 without knowing if there's a cop in the setup, so what do the rest of you think of this plan?

One of the claim-related thoughts that's been going through my mind is that it might be better on Day 1 to have a player who reaches L-1 claim either "townie or "not townie" rather than claiming a specific role.

If scum claim a power role (for the sake of convenience I'm including "miller" in this) they stand to gain some pretty useful information going into night 1. Either there is no counterclaim in which case they have narrowed down the possible role combinations from 6 to 3, and know specifically that the claimed role does not exist, or, if there is a counterclaim, they have smoked out the power role of their choosing before night.

From the town's POV, we would not be able to catch scum in an immediate lie but (a) there is a 50% chance we wouldn't be able to do that anyway and (b) there's a good chance a scum false-claiming will be caught soon. It only takes one genuine power-role to be exposed for the remaining (genuine) power-role to know the scum was lying, and it only takes one more "non-townie" claim for a genuine non-townie to know one or both was lying.

[Kaiveran]

Activity post.

Let me analyze the possibilities.

Silver's plan: D2 arrives, 2 or 3 people claim miller. 2 people and no counterclaim means that we might have outed all scum right there, but I doubt that'll happen. More likely to be 1 claim and 1 counterclaim, resulting in the situation that Ripley just described. 3 claims isn't likely, but it's either two scum and a true miller, or a scum, a miller, and a townie being a jerk.

Ripley's plan relies on at least one non-townie claim, and therein lies the problem. If everyone wimps out and claims townie, we're no further than where we started. Granted, this can happen with Silver's plan as well, but it's a lot less likely, as people who will seer as Scum are going to try and cover themselves. Of course, if some townie gets up some bravado or a scum tries to frame someone, they might fake Cop and say that they seered X as scum, and naturally X (be they townie or scum) will try to avoid getting lynched by claiming miller.

I'm slightly edging towards Silver's strategy; It looks like the best we can do is try it out, narrow the suspects at least a little bit, and try to weed out the liars from there.

Man this game is going slow. I'm caught up modding a game on another site, so I might not be OMG ACTIVE. I'll follow the game best I can.

[Raging Rabbit]

Activity prods will go out tommorow.

[Ripley]

Kaiveran, I'm having a hard time understanding your post. You seem to think my plan was offered as an alternative to Silver's, but it's a completely different thing. We could do neither, one or both. Also you seem to believe - "If everyone wimps out and claims townie, we're no further than where we started" - that I was suggesting

everyone

claim townie or not townie, where in fact what I suggested was, specifically, that a player at L-1, and therefore in a position where players normally claim, should claim townie or not townie.

I also think we should assume that protown players will tell the truth; your analysis assumes that they will lie in all kinds of circumstances. up to and including pretending to be a cop who has found scum. Why on earth would a protown player do that?

To go back to SilverPhoenix's suggestion of asking for miller claims at the start of Day 2. Kaiveran seems to expect 2 claims, or even 3. (I personally don't believe town would (or should) lie or that both scum would claim miller.) One downside of leaving this to Day 2, if we plan to do it at all, is that if both scum survive Day 1 they have the chance to confer and decide which, if either of them, should claim. Whereas if we asked for miller claims now, the scum have no chance to collaborate; nor at this stage do they have any idea which of them would be most likely to attract a cop investigation. So there is something to be said for making them commit themselves now.

[Kaiveran]

Oh, L-1, now I see where you're coming from. I also forgot that these games are not at all like TWGs on my site. There is no private communication at all here, so there's going to be a hell of a lot less overt deception (which is probably why the games here are so long).

So yeah, I understand now.

[veerus]

Activity post.

Let me analyze the possibilities.

Silver's plan: D2 arrives, 2 or 3 people claim miller. 2 people and no counterclaim means that we might have outed all scum right there, but I doubt that'll happen. More likely to be 1 claim and 1 counterclaim, resulting in the situation that Ripley just described. 3 claims isn't likely, but it's either two scum and a true miller, or a scum, a miller, and a townie being a jerk.

Ripley's plan relies on at least one non-townie claim, and therein lies the problem. If everyone wimps out and claims townie, we're no further than where we started. Granted, this can happen with Silver's plan as well, but it's a lot less likely, as people who will seer as Scum are going to try and cover themselves. Of course, if some townie gets up some bravado or a scum tries to frame someone, they might fake Cop and say that they seered X as scum, and naturally X (be they townie or scum) will try to avoid getting lynched by claiming miller.

I'm slightly edging towards Silver's strategy; It looks like the best we can do is try it out, narrow the suspects at least a little bit, and try to weed out the liars from there.

Man this game is going slow. I'm caught up modding a game on another site, so I might not be OMG ACTIVE. I'll follow the game best I can.

That's a lot of assumptions for one post...

[Raging Rabbit]

Vote Count 2

veerus 2 (SP, Ripley)

Ripley 2 (TCS, ThAd)
ThAd 1 (veerus)
TCS 1 (Kaiveran)
SP 1 (Biohazard)


Prodding TCS and Biohazard. Post more, people.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Life has been hectic. I just got though the holiday and a big move, and since then I've pretty much been at work, driving to work, or preparing for work every waking hour. So sorry for the absence.

Just because I said I was going to start lurker policy lynching,

vote: the central scrutinizer

until he starts contributing more.

[veerus]

With a 7-player game, I would've expected it to be over by now...