Open 105: Crush Mafia (Game Over) before 714

neko2086 · Post Post #75 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:15 am

Personally, I like his unvote better than his vote for a no-lynch, which reminds me...

Darox, what was with the no-lynch vote?

Darox · Post Post #76 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:18 am

For the sake of it mostly.

I can't see anything worthy of my vote at the moment.

farside22 · Post Post #77 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:07 am

neko2086 wrote:Personally, I like his unvote better than his vote for a no-lynch, which reminds me...

Darox, what was with the no-lynch vote?

Personally I think both were useless.

charter · Post Post #78 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:11 am

Vote Count:

ortolan - 1 (ortolan)
TehVariable - 1 (populartajo)
populartajo - 1 (neko2086)

Darox - 2 (Crazy, farside22)

Not Voting: (2)

Darox
TehVariable

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

ortolan · Post Post #79 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 1:01 pm

My last comments on the setup question:

neko2806 wrote:It's still quite possible that ortolan asked the question as scum to try to figure out whether he should be looking for the lyncher, but I don't think it's necessarily a scummy thing to ask. I doubt he's the lyncher, but that's just a gut feeling.

The point is that you shouldn't be trying to interpret anything about my alignment based on the question- I should be equally likely to be any of the factions as I would otherwise be. Thus you should not conclude from me asking the question that I am "not the lyncher" or that I am the lyncher, or that I am scum, or that I am not scum.

farside22 wrote:Finally calling people scummy based on your question is OMGUS kind of comment. People are talking about what they find. You will be questioned to death about scummy things. It happens. If you are town you point out things you find scummy (which I note you did but most is based on those who asked you about your comment).

It is scummy to me. Whenever I re-read the question I wonder why anyone would even mention it. Thus when you do something scummy (obsessing about my setup question), expect me to hone in on you.

TehVariable wrote:I really dislike this from TehVariable also:

I don't think the set up question was scummy, but I'm leaning ortolan being the lyncher. This however:

We shouldn't be trying to lynch the lyncher. We should be trying to lynch the mafia. Obviously we need to keep an eye out for lyncher tells so we don't let them win the game, but aside from that we should ignore him and focus on finding the mafia, which are a much bigger threat.
Is precisely right. So even if ort is the lyncher, we shouldn't lynch him based on that.

Seems like a good way for scum to discount my opinions on who should be lynched.

populartajo · Post Post #80 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 1:06 pm

It is scummy to me. Whenever I re-read the question I wonder why anyone would even mention it. Thus when you do something scummy (obsessing about my setup question), expect me to hone in on you.

Stop being so close minded, plz. If you're town stop it, rly. If the majority of players find your question to be interesting to comment and you dont, then the most probable thing is that IT IS interesting to comment.
People that dont think like you arent necessarily scum.

ortolan · Post Post #81 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 1:11 pm

Um...I'm not the one being close-minded, people attempting a narrow interpretation of the question are

populartajo · Post Post #82 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 1:12 pm

Who is attempting a narrow interpretation?

farside22 · Post Post #83 (ISO) » Tue Dec 16, 2008 6:23 am

ortolan wrote:Um...I'm not the one being close-minded, people attempting a narrow interpretation of the question are

All I saw was people talking about the question. You pointing to each of them and saying they are scum for pointing it out.
Not everyone is scum.

TehVariable · Post Post #84 (ISO) » Tue Dec 16, 2008 10:48 am

Seems like a good way for scum to discount my opinions on who should be lynched.

Hmm? Wasn't even going for that. If it's actually well reasoned, then there's no reason not to listen. Because it would be more likely you weren't the lyncher. I'm hoping the lynchee doesn't make themselves an easy target though.

All I saw was people talking about the question. You pointing to each of them and saying they are scum for pointing it out.
Not everyone is scum.

this.

ortolan · Post Post #85 (ISO) » Tue Dec 16, 2008 11:43 am

See Post 70. I never said *anyone* was scum as a result of discussing the question, I do think discussing it excessively is scummy however. It is possible I simply have a different intuitive response when re-reading the question to all 3 of you (it looks totally innocuous to me), in which case it is probably a null-tell both ways.

Crazy · Post Post #86 (ISO) » Tue Dec 16, 2008 5:57 pm

One thing to remember, however, is that the scum don't know who the lyncher is, either, and they have just as much reason to be afraid of the lyncher as the town. Now, lyncher-hunting isn't really pro-town or pro-scum, because the lyncher is a threat to both sides.

So a scum giving a fake lyncher-suspect is almost equivocal to a town giving a fake scum-suspect. So, basically, it's not something I see happening.

ortolan · Post Post #87 (ISO) » Tue Dec 16, 2008 9:04 pm

I don't follow that logic Crazy

If scum convince town that any of the five non-scum players is the lyncher, they can then use this as an argument for discounting their arguments on who should be lynched- because presumably whoever the "lyncher" wants lynched is their lynch target. Scum gains one townie whose ability to convince town of scum is lessened, and loses nothing. They can still privately ponder who the lyncher is. There's also twice the chance of the lyncher being assigned a town-target than a mafia target, and if this is the case, and the mafia don't mind "technically" coming second to the lyncher, then if they realise who the lyncher is they may support them.

Thus there are many cases where mafia's interests are served by placing suspicion of the lyncher on any particular non-mafia player. Conversely, if the mafia convince town one of the mafia is the lyncher, this may help them fly under the radar to endgame.

Darox · Post Post #88 (ISO) » Thu Dec 18, 2008 4:42 am

I'm debating random lynching as a day 1 strat, so I'm going to run the numbers.

4 Town (One of whom is a lynchee)
1 Lyncher
1 Goon
1 Godfather

42% chance to lynch a plain townie
-25% chance to kill lyncher (3T 2M)
-25% chance to kill lynchee (3T 2M)
-50% chance to kill townie (2T 1L 2M)

14% chance to lynch the lynchee (Lyncher wins)
-75% chance to kill townie (2T 1L 2M)
-25% chance to kill lyncher (3T 2M)

14% chance to lynch the lyncher
-100% chance to kill a townie (3T 2M)

14% chance to lynch the goon
-60% chance to kill townie (3T 1L 1M)
-20% chance to kill lyncher (4T 1M)
-20% chance to kill lynchee (4T 1M)

14% chance to lynch the godfather (Town wins)

End results
38.5% - 3T 2M
31.5% - 2T 1L 2M
14% - Town wins
8.5% - 3T 1L 1M
5.5% - 4T 1M

Allowing for rounding errors those should be the numbers, and looking at it again, it doesn't look very promising.

neko2086 · Post Post #89 (ISO) » Thu Dec 18, 2008 4:57 am

Unless I'm mistaken, a lyncher, by definition, is always given a town target.

Nobody, town or scum, should be playing for second place, either. If they are, they should be replaced. One of the standard mafia rules is "play to win."

Crazy, by lyncher-hunting, are you talking about just figuring out who the lyncher is, or are you talking about actually trying to get the lyncher lynched?

neko2086 · Post Post #90 (ISO) » Thu Dec 18, 2008 5:00 am

Numbers and I don't get along, but yes, it looks like random-lynching is a terrible idea.

farside22 · Post Post #91 (ISO) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 6:41 am

neko2086 wrote:Unless I'm mistaken, a lyncher, by definition, is always given a town target.

Nobody, town or scum, should be playing for second place, either. If they are, they should be replaced. One of the standard mafia rules is "play to win."

Crazy, by lyncher-hunting, are you talking about just figuring out who the lyncher is, or are you talking about actually trying to get the lyncher lynched?

I don't see that is what Crazy is talking about. He is saying those who are talking about ortolan as the lyncher could be town or scum. How did you read Crazy's post the other way?

neko2086 · Post Post #92 (ISO) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 6:56 am

Maybe I should clarify: The first two lines of that post were directed at Ortolan.

The last line only is directed at Crazy. I'd like him to answer the question.

ortolan · Post Post #93 (ISO) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 11:56 am

Unless I'm mistaken, a lyncher, by definition, is always given a town target.

Ahok, thanks for clarifying, if that's correct.

Nobody, town or scum, should be playing for second place, either. If they are, they should be replaced. One of the standard mafia rules is "play to win."

You're agreeing with me here. In post 65 I said:

the lyncher is an element of the game- to ignore them entirely seems unfair to the setup.

I certainly wouldn't play for second place but I still thought it prudent to consider others might.

charter · Post Post #94 (ISO) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 4:38 pm

Crazy, populartajo, and TehVariable have been prodded.
populartajo you have one more prod before I'm going to replace you.

populartajo · Post Post #95 (ISO) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:07 pm

Awww. Its just this game is so boring and there is so little to analyse.
Right now, ortolan and farside seem town. Darox is trying to help but I dont get how he is helping witb no-voting and random voting.
Others are null.

ortolan · Post Post #96 (ISO) » Fri Dec 19, 2008 11:51 pm

May I ask why you think farside and I are town populartajo?

TehVariable · Post Post #97 (ISO) » Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:26 am

May I ask why you think farside and I are town populartajo?

I'm curious about this as well. I'm sorry for the low activity but there really hasn't been much to comment on except the ongoing argument about the set up question and whether calling someone a lyncher is scummy :S.

Crazy · Post Post #98 (ISO) » Sat Dec 20, 2008 3:42 pm

ortolan wrote:and the mafia don't mind "technically" coming second to the lyncher, then if they realise who the lyncher is they may support them.

Well, if that's the case, then yes, your point stands better. But this is not the way to play this game. Realize if it

was

, then if we mislynched Day 1, and the scum killed a non-lynchee townie Day 2, then the scum and lyncher could easily pull of a joint win.

That scenario might work for Jester Mafia, but the lyncher needs to be an enemy to all factions for this game to work. And since the original game plan had the game end immediately if the lynchee was lynched, the only way to play this game is to count 2nd place as a loss.

neko2086 wrote:Crazy, by lyncher-hunting, are you talking about just figuring out who the lyncher is, or are you talking about actually trying to get the lyncher lynched?

I mean figuring out who the lyncher is, since lynching the lyncher does nothing but put us in Lylo.

populartajo · Post Post #99 (ISO) » Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:12 am

ortolan wrote:May I ask why you think farside and I are town populartajo?

Farside is more gut than anything. And I think you are town because I dont think it would be a good play to be that confrontional this early. Also I think its either more probable that you are town defending with so-so reasoning than scum winning negative attention. Either that or you are agressive scum. How would you consider yourself?