Mini 2032: Children of Hurin Mafia - Game Over

[Almost50]

Hello all

I've just NOW received my Role PM (Jeanne must've forgot??), so this is why I couldn't post earlier.

Can somebody tell me why Pernicious Parrot hasn't posted at all, yet is still in the game and not getting attention?

[Almost50]

D1 ended pretty quickly

OK, let me be more precise then:

First player post (#5 by Kokichi) was made @Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:11 pm (my time)
Jeanne posted the flip @Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:42 pm (again, my time)

That's 150 minutes short of a full 72 hours.

From the OP:

I will prod players after 48 hours of inactivity.

And yet I don't see a prod has been issued.

It is also a bit strange nobody even cared to poke Pernicious or exclaim about their total absence. Or maybe I missed it while I skimmed the thread?

The point is the game is into D2 and if Pernicious hasn't been in contact with the mods during the night they would have probably had him replaced already. Ya feel me?

[Almost50]

Alright. I'll put Pernicious on the back burner got now, but will probably revisit the issue in 48 hrs max

[Almost50]

happy is good

almost's angle for thinking pernicious is scum was towny of him

-tor

They subbed in for FFT right? That slot’s very likely town based on VCA.

Exactly why that slot is scum btw.
Scum Pork has 0 reason to self hammer unless scum is already on his wagon for town cred and I don't think that'd be Gamma/NK15 because that doesn't really give much credit, to begin with, they'd have been better off defending the slot and going for the "but I wouldn't defend my partner that hard" angle. I think it was one of the early voters aka the hydra. That's the only way I see scum pork self hammering make sense.

At least cut the BS and state the truth: You just LOVE to vote me I bet if we were Masons together in any given game that you would still vote me at some point AFTER the RVS stage! Am I right or am I right?

[Almost50]

sorry I didn't mean to start a discussion on mod things while in game, I'll leave it for post

creature thinking he might have a guilty is towny so there's that

FA_Q2 could be a reasonable lynch

I don't mind lynching pernicious parrot either

-tor

I think we wait until I've decided on a second suspect (other that Pernicious). Based on the last 2 games you played with me I always have one scum + one town in my 2 main original suspects (then we end up lynching someone else)

[Almost50]

Creature could be scum btw. But I'll read this later

Very small chance of that being the case IMHO. I'd rather assume he is Town for his play and activity for today at the very least.

[Almost50]

Why are you willing to lynch the slot that has 0 posts?

Exactly bc of that!! 70 hrs on D1 and 48 hrs on D2 and they never posted, and are still not prodded or replaced.

[Almost50]

Oh, you're that "oppose everything A50 says just for the fun of it" mode. OK.

[Almost50]

VOTE: Creative Mod

Ellitell. Need I say more?

[Almost50]

What the hell is ellitell?

Ellitell (2012): People who are active in all games save one are scum in said game.

[Almost50]

Why assume that scum is going to be less active? This seems to be a common theme here on this site and is nonsensical to me. There is no reason that a scum would avoid being active unless they were trying to lurk a wagon away and even then site wide activity would really not be relevant in that case.

because you can post your genuine thoughts as town, while as scum you need to "think" of what to post. You can post your SRs naturally as town, but as scum you need to consume the effort to fabricate them. You do not know much as town and thus have nothing to hide, but as scum you do have knowledge and if you post more you could slip one way or the other.

You arguing against the ellitell as a whole is like you arguing against the amished tell as a whole, or virtually any other tell. But you can feel free to disregard it. I simply don't.

As for the D1 lynch wagon: Check this game out. It's a recent one. Basically Toranga was guiltied by BuJaber at the start of D2. We decided to go for his "unknown" partner instead. I figured it was Poseidon and Wh4t sheeped me (L-2). Toranaga tried to be smart by putting his p @L-1 to make us second guess our read, and Poseidon instantly hammered himself!

I could point you to other games where it's a bit more complicated than this, but it boils down to scum do self-hammer after seeing their p put them to L-1

[Almost50]

@Creature: I hope you're done having your fun and are ready to out your guilty, cuz I'm ready to end this day already. Thanks.

[Almost50]

My vote is still on Wisdom because I do believe in the ellitell on CMod (not Wisdom's fault, really. I'm not even pinged by Wisdom's own posts, but I also know how good he is as scum, and I have been burnt once too many by a scumster subbing-out only for their replacement to sound townie and get away with it, leaving me banging my head against the wall for not sticking to my read on the

slot

).

I could maybe switch to FA_Q, but I see no point is discussing my lynch preferences when we have a guilty, so I will vote whomever Creature has a guilty on.

[Almost50]

VOTE: ceejay

That's a lynch I am seriously considering, but I wanted to give CJV some time to catch up before I pushed him.

[Almost50]

fuck the new meta, in old times i was never wagoned as town

Claim: I am a bodyguard

UNVOTE:

At least until I'm fully caught up.

[Almost50]

A50 looks bad today

Where did you see me? I haven't been out of my house today!

[Almost50]

Each night, I get information on the setup but can only share it one time, with a player of my choosing.

So, I got the totally earth shattering game-changing info - that wait for it:

That there are 3 scum in the game, total. Something, that anyone with half a brain had already figured out anyway.

Well at least you weren't told pregnant women are far more likely to go into labour than non-pregnant women.

[Almost50]

TBH, I am wondering why Wisdom is still TRing me hard. I am voting him. I am not moving my vote around. I didn't present a case on his slot (not something I would consider compelling anyway). Like that's the only reason I am now doubting my read on the slot.

However, I have learnt not to read the player, but rather read the slot. I know Wisdom to be a very capable player as either alignment and I would be overjoyed if he somehow managed to convince me he was Town here, because that gives us a better chance at winning.

I didn't like CMod's activity here and I still believe that ellitell applies though. I might consider a vote switch if a better lynch is on the table (Hint: There's no better lynch than a Scum!Wisdom lynch. What I mean is if someone is more likely to flip scum is being wagoned. But WHO could that be??)

[Almost50]

a50 there's no guilty, you can talk about other stuff now.

Where did I refer to the guilty in my post? I am saying I scum read the slot by virtue of ellitell on CMod who was active elsewhere and not in this thread.

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:

What does the VC look like?

@Mod: Can we please get an official VC?

[Almost50]

TBH, I am wondering why Wisdom is still TRing me hard.

Predecessor.

Do you believe in the ellitell?
Do you not suspect me for pushing you while actively stating your own posts do not ping me?

[Almost50]

no, i know for a fact its bs as ive been inactive myself in towngames on purpose
and no your predecessor was town

Come on Wis, you're not CMod. The ellitell doesn't apply to experienced players. I wouldn't try to use it against you -in person- or Nero for instance.

[Almost50]

VOTE: CJV

His inactivity and void posting is a scum tell for him.

[Almost50]

can we not stray from the gamma lynch

I'm not sold on Gamma, but I know CJV's play.

[Almost50]

Not well enough apparently

Beetlejuice much? Where have you been when everyone was talking about a Gamma lynch? Where have you been during the Wisdom-Nero back and forth? What happened to your catch up which you said was halfway done?

[Almost50]

I only want to point out that roleblocker vs bodyguard is a bit scumsided.

Who says BG is the only town protective? Plus there’s other roles to factor in.

^This. I also find it a bit mind boggling that CJV would say this given his experience in playing certain open setups.

[Almost50]

Here's an example: Pick Your Poison X/Y where either side could end up with a JK + Doctor (more likely the Town because scum will probably go for the RB).

Also, in Stack The Deck the Town could end up having both a BG and a RB (Town RB is also mainly a protective if no modifications were picked.)

C++ also has the same possibility (Doctor or DoctorS + Roleblocker(s))

[Almost50]

but sometimes it just seems like players tend to sign up for games and not play.

Do they stop playing ALL their games, or do they keep playing in one and stop playing the other? THIS is a key question, and is the core of the ellitell.

[Almost50]

You've tunneled Wisdom's slot and then voted a useless lurksack so what little you've talked about has been very narrow and its slightly concerning to me. I'd like to see you fan out a little.

Ceejay is now my preferred lynch, followed by FA_Q (sheeping Tor). I'm not quite sure about Wisdom anymore (and I reckon I'll end up kicking myself in the rearside as I always do for letting a replacement change my read on the slot).

From then on it's as tricky as it gets for me. For instance, I have never pegged Kokichi correctly (at least I don't remember ever doing it). Gamma also has been a tough read for me of late (remember when I faked a guilty on him and got him lynched and flipped scum? Well, we were scum together in a game after that and from then on I always auto-SR him, but I've learnt not to push him until he obv!scums it for others because of that).

I believe Creature is Town, and so are snuggly and Frozenaga. I thus find myself inclined to TR Maria based on their reads (I wish Chara was here to give their own read on Maria).

And you are a Town lean for two reasons: You're more calm than I'm used to see you as scum, and I can't find anyone who fits as your scum p.

[Almost50]

The Ceejay lynch is because Scum!CJV acts the way you see him do now. He is almost always absent, and when he shows up he is procrastinating on doing the catch up. He is non-committed and gives you nothing of substance. I know because I have been scum with him before, and I also caught scum!him before.

[Almost50]

So, unless CJV turned into another N_M this is his scum game.

[Almost50]

Let me go check

[Almost50]

OK, NVM.

[Almost50]

Can you get a hint? I only have one finished game with him under another account (the one we were scum together) and no finished games under this one.

[Almost50]

I thought I had more though, but it seems that maybe I've been reading some games I wasn't in that he was playing.

[Almost50]

Can you get a hint?

thats a little rude and defensive...

Well, I happen to disagree, but I'd take that over a ban. Thank you very much.

[Almost50]

VOTE: gamma

THAT'S IT!

VOTE: Wisdom

You've just scum slipped, my friend. Not by "tal" but by "action".

MY own scumtell I use VERY EFFECTIVELY is when a wagon looks likely to go through; scum will jump off it. Whether the original target (CJV) is their buddy or a Townie they want to disassociate themselves from their lynch is up in the air (it's approximately the same probability), but it is +90% that the early voter that abandons the wagon when it picks up is scum.

And I'll provide you with TWO examples from my own games where I pegged scum this way (the two events I currently recall. It doesn't mean there is no other events). I'll even save you the trouble and link the exact post I did.

1st game (You can check Pintu's alignment on the OP of that game. I was correct.

Pintu was scum parked on his partner Aneninen.

)

2nd game (This wasn't an accurate read. I pegged jay for scum but failed to see Beefster was also his partner.)

So, in both these games scum jumped off their own p's wagon, but I only pegged BOTH in one and failed to see it the same way in the other.

Never-the-less; I assert that scum also -sometimes- jump of a MISLYNCH wagon to come back later and say "I was correct. That wagon was scummy, and I suggest we lynch off the last 2 voters" or something similar.

tl;dr: I am still hard SRing CJV but I am more confident in a scum flip for Wisdom.

[Almost50]

who is ceejay's buddy, tora?

You are.

[Almost50]

A50, tell me why Wisdom is a better lynch than QT/CJ? Thanks.

I've explained it, and I linked examples of previous events. What more can I say or do?

[Almost50]

I voted him because i wanted to prompt him to town it up

Yet he didn't!! He just took a nose dive into the deep blue sea and never resurfaced!

[Almost50]

if the l-1 remained wed likely have a hammer before he reacted

Is N_M playing in this game??

[Almost50]

in this site meta most people are like nm

I don't see that often aside from Newbie games. The majority of players give intent before they hammer and wait for a claim.

[Almost50]

Yawn

How's the mislynch going?

How about you do something useful?

[Almost50]

Set a good example, por favor

[Almost50]

@Nancy: Do you realize it's

the same slot

though? The same slot gave two different scumtells for me. Do you expect me to still ignore it?

[Almost50]

And two different tells from two different players.

[Almost50]

Actually it would look better if you edited the post to remove the quote tags and make it look exactly as 1573.

However, after doing that you'd need to delete 1573 (and 1574) because why double post? And then you can quote the new 1573 to male it appear at the pagetop .. redo ... closed loop ... system jammed!