Mini 2032: TAZ Mafia: Murder on the Rockport Limited [over]

[Shoshin]

You think I'm scum, NSG?

[Shoshin]

I didn't say being wrong was a scum-tell, so...

[Shoshin]

Ignoring relevant evidence to push a mislynch - that's a scum-tell, and that's what you did.

Arguing with me about pointless shit when you don't even scumread me is also pretty anti-town. Like, wtf are you doing here?

[Shoshin]

and you've done something scummy in that you lynched Irrelephant despite his obvious townness

and despite the fact that I pointed out multiple reasons to townread him

.

this is scumreading me for being wrong.

That's called ignoring relevant evidence and that's a scum-tell. Explain to me why you ignored me in pushing that lynch?

[Shoshin]

NSG cannot be trusted, please don't gacha her.

Did NSG ever confirm receiving fruit? I don't understand why she's being so uncooperative on that front.

what is this ridiculous shade? that discussion was ended like an entire week ago. how at all am i being "uncooperative"?

What was the point of this post? Were you trying to read me, or were you defending yourself? If defending yourself, why'd you feel so defensive when I'm not even pushing your lynch or anything close to it?

[Shoshin]

Shoshin why is gamma town. Did you see his last few posts. How do you townread his progression on me

Voting me for Gacha? That was pretty towny. What's wrong with his progression on you? Why do you scumread him? And if Varsoon didn't RB you or him, who'd he RB?

[Shoshin]

Kokichi is town

Why?

[Shoshin]

What's TWEAK?

[Shoshin]

Kokichi is town

Why?

Seeing page 2

What specifically makes him town?

[Shoshin]

Those posts don't make Koki town, Creature. You were in that Pokemon game, right? It shows clearly that 30, 31, and 32 are all within Koki's capabilities as scum.

Varsoon rb'd someone to stop the kill... and we know Varsoon probably rb'd Emerald or Kokichi, with a very distant possibility of Skitter or Porkens... so it's likely that one of these players is scum.

It wasn't Emerald unless NSG is lying. So Kokichi was probably rb'd, as that's more likely than Varsoon rb'ing Skitter/Porkens.

What's wrong with my logic?

[Shoshin]

Shoshin why is gamma town. Did you see his last few posts. How do you townread his progression on me

I didn't say I townread his progression on you. But explain why I shouldn't, and explain why he's scum, please.

[Shoshin]

Well I feel like nsg kinda should have made that connection.

town lost that game because they didn't listen to me. i will never ever accept my own lynch.

Well I accepted my lynch in American presidents and town won. You wouldn’t know that because you flaked tho

We could have done a lot better if you hadn't done that, but I'd say partly it was my fault for lynching you. I should have realized you were town before that lynch happened.

[Shoshin]

Why you want to lynch Gamma then?

I do NOT want to lynch Gamma. I'm trying to get people on Koki, or to present reasons to lynch Gamma.

[Shoshin]

I thought NSG was on Koki with me?

[Shoshin]

If you had switcheroo you could be trying to lynch someone else via that power
But unless you somehow got a ton of gold (which if so makes you suspect) that’s not likely
We’re not lynching Kokichi today.

VOTE: Reck
Yeah this Koki push feels kinda shady

Oh wait.

I'M at L-1 SINCE IM HATED

So it was just a VC error but still
Why post this if you’ve already given up?
VOTE: Kokichi Oma

How does this progression make any sense by the way.

This progression is actually super towny. Like, think about it.

Scum in Gamma's position doesn't start defending you the moment after you self-vote (unusual for scum to do that when they could easily just push a mislynch on the hated self-voter) unless he's thinking of the fact that he himself has been giving up as town in recent games. So there's already quite a lot of internal consistency underlying the townread. And then, Gamma responds to 1432 with suspicion -- because he thinks that someone who gives up doesn't make that post -- which is a very townish way for Gamma to scumhunt because Gamma's been giving up as town in recent games. Again, this adds to the internal consistency underlying the read, as Gamma's looking specifically at things that he's comparing with his own play.

On top of that, RC's slot was town, and Gamma wasn't roleblocked, as proven by NSG.

[Shoshin]

This progression is actually super towny. Like, think about it.

Yeah you just lost all towncred from this post alone

What's scummy about it? You're acting like town never change their mind...

[Shoshin]

Nos, why are you voting Emerald over Koki?

[Shoshin]

Creature, why are you even voting Gamma in the first place?

[Shoshin]

Oh, I dunno. Maybe you're not.

[Shoshin]

Why haven't you asked for an explanation for why he changed the read?

Seems pretty obvious why he changed his mind... like, he quotes the specific post that bothered him and says it's not something he'd expect from someone who gave up... and it's not a matter of 20 posts later, it's a matter of when he saw the specific post that changed his mind...

[Shoshin]

Why aren't more people voting Kokichi?

[Shoshin]

We should easily have the votes to lynch Kokichi...

Me, NSG, Gamma, and one of Skitter / Creature?

I don't get what's holding this up?

[Shoshin]

Skitter, why aren't you voting for Koki?

[Shoshin]

Wow, Koki... so survivalistic all the sudden...

[Shoshin]

Oh, wow. I did confuse them lol

[Shoshin]

Gamma, why aren't you voting Koki? WTF?

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Koki

I'm town, and I'm never dying this game.

[Shoshin]

Maybe it's Pork.

[Shoshin]

Nos, why are you so sure that Koki and Pork are town?

[Shoshin]

Nos, why are you so sure that Koki and Pork are town?

I think that porkens is town because his d1 play was what i expect from town!porkens. porkens is hella obvious as scum and he wouldve been lynched already if scum.
I think kokichi is town because he's not gamma or nsg.

What's the difference between town and scum Pork?

Why is Gamma & NSG scummier than Koki?

[Shoshin]

Can we lynch Koki today so that we can have a proper LYLO tomorrow?

[Shoshin]

It's me appealing to the people who think you're town.

[Shoshin]

@Koki

If you're town hated, why wouldn't you want to be lynched today? That doesn't make sense.

[Shoshin]

Look, it makes a lot more sense to lynch Koki today than to wait until tomorrow.

There's multiple reasons for this, but the main one is that we narrow down the pool of potential scum, and I have another chance to use a gachapon ability. And this time, maybe I'll get some sort of investigative ability that will help us figure this out, or some gold so that I can use the investigation.

It also gives people a chance to use their gold on investigations or something, so that maybe we'll have results.

[Shoshin]

Gachapon vote: Shoshin

That's a good vote, Pork.

[Shoshin]

Well, the JK obviously didn't stop the kill, so I can't say if it was helpful yet.

[Shoshin]

Skitter, do you disagree that we should lynch Koki today if he's telling the truth about town hated? And if he's scum, obviously we lynch him today... so why not lynch him?

[Shoshin]

I should get gacha because I'm not dying tonight, which means I have the best chance of living to reveal the results of the gacha, especially if the gacha is investigative. I don't know how much gold I have but if I can investigate using my gold, I'll also be doing that. If gacha gives me gold, I'll use it to investigate.

Koki should be lynched today because he claimed town hated. That means Koki automatically gets lynched tomorrow if he's town, which means we lose the game today if we mislynch. And it's better to mislych tomorrow than today becaues that gives us another round of night actions, which means we increase our chances of getting some sort of investigative result through the use of gold and/or gacha.

I don't see why we're delaying Koki's lynch. What are you waiting around for?

[Shoshin]

Oh, I'm willing to wait for one thing before we lynch Koki.

I'd like to know how he's used his gold.

[Shoshin]

What do you want to use the dayphase for? I want to get Koki's flip so that I can figure out my reads using more complete information.

[Shoshin]

But like I said, I'd like to hear how Koki used his gold. So let's at least wait for that.

[Shoshin]

I want to hear what Koki's done with the gold.

But to answer your question, I want to see Koki's flip. I don't see much point in sorting alignments until I get his flip.

[Shoshin]

I'm also fairly confident on who the scum are once we get Koki's flip.

[Shoshin]

I'll talk about my reads tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

Why haven't you used the gold?

[Shoshin]

Are you trying to get switcheroo? Why not investigate?

[Shoshin]

Koki, why don't you want to be lynched today? Please explain that to me.

[Shoshin]

We can lynch me.

VOTE: kokichi

I don't understand how you go from this to avoiding your own lynch now when your lynch is the optimal play for the town.

[Shoshin]

Gamma, who have you given your fruit to? Why hasn't anyone else received fruit besides NSG?

[Shoshin]

And by fruit, I mean food item that I won't describe.

[Shoshin]

Why would you give it to Creature?

Give it to me tonight. I won't die. I can confirm your role.

[Shoshin]

Gamma, give the food to me please. I would like to confirm that you're telling the truth about your role. If I don't receive food from you, I'm lynching you tomorrow. No excuses.

Also, Skitter, can you talk to me about what you've been doing with the gold?

[Shoshin]

It'd actually be nice to know what everyone has done with the gold. Do we have any useful investigative result?

[Shoshin]

i mean unless you think scum is exactly {nsg/gamma} he confirmed his role already ... ?

It's the only way that Gamma's scum, but it's a possibility we have to consider in the event that Koki flips town.

[Shoshin]

Let me think a bit more about how to play this dayphase out. I'm certain we should lynch the hated claim today, as a matter of basic mafia theory, but I'm not sure how to play out the process of claiming, especially in light of the gold mechanic. Part of me thinks we should keep information to ourselves to make this a difficult night phase for the scum. But another part of me wants to get information out there now to help figure this out.

[Shoshin]

I don't want scum to know who to nightkill.

[Shoshin]

Skitter, why are you voting yourself for gacha?

[Shoshin]

Whoever is town should vote Kokichi before the scum do.

[Shoshin]

Skitter, why are you voting yourself for gacha?

because i'm starting to lose my townread on you

Why?

To be clear, this game would already be over if I were scum, because I have switcheroo.

I'm effectively town confirmed at this point, in case that wasn't obvious to you.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: nsg

why are your posts so banal and passive and like ... not scum-hunt-y?

Why won't you lynch Koki? Why are you so sure he's town, so incredibly sure that you're not even willing to lynch him when there's literally no downside whatsoever to lynching him today?

[Shoshin]

This game is starting to get really frustrating.

You guys mislynched Irrelephant, you mislynched Reck, and now you don't want to lynch Koki the day before LYLO when he claimed hated and even self-voted earlier in the game?

[Shoshin]

do you think kokichi is town or scum?

I think he'll fiip scum.

But even if he's town, it's still better to lynch him today so that we get another night to use gold and gacha.

The point is that Koki's the best lynch, and I'd prefer townies getting the gold from this lynch over scum.

If Koki is scum and scum bus him, they get a lot of gold.

If Koki is town and scum mislynch him, they still get gold from voting him.

Like, how is this not obvious to the townies here?

[Shoshin]

Unless you're scum, you don't know who the scum are.

We don't have any mislynches to spare because of Koki's role. But that doesn't mean we can't use Koki's role to give us a better chance of correctly lynching. We do that by using gacha on me (confirmed town) and distributing gold to people we think are town, including me (confirmed town). If we can pull off some investigations, we'll enter LYLO with a much better chance of actually lynching the last scum, instead of relying solely on behavioral evidence.

[Shoshin]

To be clear, Koki, I'm confirmed townf from your perspective because of switcheroo.

If I were scum, I would have used switcheroo on a townie. That means if I'm lynched today, town dies. Then I'd go into LYLO and quickly lynch you.

So, you need to rethink the whole "Shoshin is scum" bit you've been pushing and work with me if you're actually town here.

[Shoshin]

Skitter, why are you ignoring my reasoning as to why lynching Koki is ideal today even if you think he's town and even if you think NSG is scum?

[Shoshin]

You are voting NSG...

[Shoshin]

Are we going to lynch mafia or no

What's your read on Nos? Skitter? Pork?

[Shoshin]

Nos, why are you so sure Koki is town?

[Shoshin]

Koki, why aren't you bothered by how strongly Nos townreads you?

[Shoshin]

xRECKONERx

skitter30

northsidegal

Kokichi Oma

Gamma Emerald
Porkens

Creature

Shoshin

i guess this is where i am now?

VOTE: gamma

Please explain how you went from townreading Gamma and scumreading Koki to scumreading Gamma and townreading Koki. What changed?

[Shoshin]

@Koki

You thought it was opportunistic of Gamma to change his mind about you. But why aren't you similarly concerned about the way Nos changed his reads in the span of 70 posts?

[Shoshin]

xRECKONERx

skitter30

northsidegal

Kokichi Oma

Gamma Emerald
Porkens

Creature

Shoshin

i guess this is where i am now?

Sorry for being gone, had company (actually, the dearly departed Gammagooey) at my house all weekend!

Looking back at the shit with RC D1 I feel like Gammagooey's interactions w/ RC could easily be Gamma trying to distance from RC's meltdown while also getting in my good graces by white knighting me to an extent

I've played a shitload of games with Gamma and I think he'd know that's the best way to get me sedated and off his trail?

Couple that with Varsoon's list which potentially was breadcrumbing RB targets and I think I wanna VOTE: Gamma Emerald today

VOTE: gamma

I don't understand how Nos chooses to follow Reck (a Nos scumread) onto Gamma (a Nos townread) instead of voting Kokichi (a Nos scumread)... what's the underlying thought process that leads to this?

[Shoshin]

gatchapon vote:

kokichi

And then decides that Kokichi is his strongest townread?

WTF?

[Shoshin]

Why is Nos scum, Skitter?

[Shoshin]

Who is his partner is Koki is town?

[Shoshin]

Changing your mind isn't a problem. The issue is changing your mind without any underlying thought process.

Explain the change on Koki & Gamma.

[Shoshin]

... because the hated modifier doesn't fall off?

why would you want him in lylo?

if we lynch scum its not lylo

are you really trying to see my pov or are these questions just pointless?

If you're town, you don't know who the scum are. Only the scum know who the scum are.

If we mislynch a townie other than Koki, we lose. The game is over. So today's lynch matters quite a bit.

If we mislynch Koki today, we still get to use night actions and those actions might increase our chances of lynching scum tomorrow (via investigative results, for example). So, what's the harm in lynching Koki? Either way, we only have one shot to lynch scum.

Let me put this as simply as possible for you. If we lynch Koki, he flips scum or we get another chance to lynch tomorrow with more information about the game (via night actions).

If we lynch anyone who isn't Koki, they flip scum or we lose the game.

Do you see the difference? Why are you opposed to giving the town an extra night of actions to increase the chances of lynching scum?

[Shoshin]

I don't understand how Nos chooses to follow Reck (a Nos scumread) onto Gamma (a Nos townread) instead of voting Kokichi (a Nos scumread)... what's the underlying thought process that leads to this?

because i changed my mind?

What caused the change? Point me to the specific posts from Koki and Gamma that changed it.

[Shoshin]

I don't have confidence, in you all as players, to actually make investigations that would lead to results. I would rather lose here than lynch kokichi today, and then lose tomorrow.

Isn't it possible that scum have used switcheroo on kokichi with some town (I'll say me for example), you lynch me, I die, and scum bum rushes kokichi tomorrow for the win.

I could easily make the argument that its basically mylo right now

You're saying it's not worth giving some townies the chance to use night actions because you think we suck at the game? What's the basis for that claim? Why do you think we suck? (For the record, I haven't been on any of the mislynches, and I've won my past 6 town games... and I know from experience that skitter, NSG, and Gamma are all very capable players....)

And even if you think we're bad, why are you opposed to using the opportunity to use night actions? What's the harm? This is a situation where there's no down side, only potential up side, yet you oppose it? You're blatantly being pro-scum...

And the idea that scum wouldn't use switcheroo on themselves is a non-starter. If Koki used switcheroo on himself, it's because Koki is scum. That much is pretty clear.

[Shoshin]

Meh, this has been illuminating.

We'll lynch Nos tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

What caused the change? Point me to the specific posts from Koki and Gamma that changed it.

im not going to show you why i scumread gamma cause if youre asking you just dont want to read

I've read the game more than once. I'd like to know your thought process because as far as I can tell, you completely fabricated your reads. I don't see anything that would lead someone to change their mind in the way you did at the time you did, other than an opportunistic desire to be on the Gamma lynch, regardless of Gamma's alignment.

[Shoshin]

exactly why i dont want to lynch kokichi right now

because your train of thought leads to a scum win

Not really, no. I hadn't thought to lynch you until this conversation, where you have revealed a total absence of any thought process underlying your reads.

[Shoshin]

I wasn't scumreading you over others, but your blatantly pro-scum play today and lack of thought process is scummy as hell. Your certainty that Koki is town is also scummy. Your lack of trust is unfounded. Everything about your play feels fake.

[Shoshin]

Why'd you change your reads when you did? That's the question.

[Shoshin]

gammag is definitely scum but i will not vote in the interest of more relevant people getting gold

How do you reconcile this with your claim that we shouldn't guarantee ourselves another night of actions because you don't trust us to use the investigations well?

[Shoshin]

We can actually make this a lot simpler and I think would make me understand what you don't understand, as fruitless as that might be.

Where do YOU think my read on gamma changed?

I pointe it out twice in my questions to you already. Between post 1277 and 1347.

[Shoshin]

xRECKONERx

skitter30

northsidegal

Kokichi Oma

Gamma Emerald
Porkens

Creature

Shoshin

i guess this is where i am now?

Sorry for being gone, had company (actually, the dearly departed Gammagooey) at my house all weekend!

Looking back at the shit with RC D1 I feel like Gammagooey's interactions w/ RC could easily be Gamma trying to distance from RC's meltdown while also getting in my good graces by white knighting me to an extent

I've played a shitload of games with Gamma and I think he'd know that's the best way to get me sedated and off his trail?

Couple that with Varsoon's list which potentially was breadcrumbing RB targets and I think I wanna VOTE: Gamma Emerald today

VOTE: gamma

I don't understand how Nos chooses to follow Reck (a Nos scumread) onto Gamma (a Nos townread) instead of voting Kokichi (a Nos scumread)... what's the underlying thought process that leads to this?

Nos, you replied to this post. It clarified where the read changed. This is something you should know for yourself and not need me to point out

[Shoshin]

I'm on my phone. When I get home tonight, I'm going to dive into all the problems I'm having with you, Nos.

[Shoshin]

Like who? Only difference is sircake, creature, and reck (who you scumread at the time). Cake and Creature were the two you wanted to vote for Gamma instead of you?

[Shoshin]

Because they were already voting Gamma. So that seems like you're just making shit up.

[Shoshin]

And now that's it's one day before LYLO, isn't getting night actions and potential investigative results MORE important? Wtf

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Reck
Yeah this Koki push feels kinda shady

my read changed here.

how does that make you feel.

He votes your scumread and defends your new townread and that's scummy? Explain.

[Shoshin]

What was survivalistic about gamma's vote on reck? Who was he switching from, and why was that a survivalistic move?

[Shoshin]

gamma made a survivalistic switch to reck that I didn't like. My read on gamma's slot didn't really matter, especially cause my read was a holdover from rc's posts d1. gamma has been slowly disintegrating that for me since he replaced in. this was simply the tipping point.

If it was survivalistic, why not vote Koki? Koki was at L-1 when Gamma voted Reck...

[Shoshin]

What'd Gamma do prior to this point to make you suspect him?

[Shoshin]

Were you scum?

[Shoshin]

I'm not happy about Nos hammering this.

[Shoshin]

Porkens, what have you done with your gold?

[Shoshin]

@Nos

Why did you give extra gold to Porkens? What have you done with your gold? And why didn't you use your role on N1 or N2?

[Shoshin]

@Nos

How much extra gold are they given?

[Shoshin]

The best option for today is to no lynch btw

[Shoshin]

I'd like to get information about how people have used their gold. Everyone needs to speak up about that today, imo

[Shoshin]

That includes you, Skitter.

[Shoshin]

Why not?

[Shoshin]

How much do you have?

[Shoshin]

I bought a switcheroo item, and I have some other gold, too.

I have enough gold that if Nos targets me tonight with his role I might be able to do something cool, depending on how much gold his role gives.

[Shoshin]

2x items? Are you fucking kidding me? And you gave that to Porkens?

[Shoshin]

So absurdly reckless.

[Shoshin]

Please explain your role in full, Nos.

[Shoshin]

Please explain with more clarity. Like, paraphrase exactly what your PM says, please.

And why do you have such complete trust in Pork? Explain that too.

[Shoshin]

Why the fuck do you townread Porkens? Explain the read itself. Where does it come from?

[Shoshin]

Skitter, what did you do laast night?

[Shoshin]

I think you should full claim.

[Shoshin]

From my perspective, that's you.

[Shoshin]

Who did you target, Skitter?

[Shoshin]

For what it's worth, I did in fact receive a tracking result last night.

[Shoshin]

And why don't you want to say who you picked? I'd like to know who you've been picking each night.

[Shoshin]

Why won't you say last night? And why weren't you picking me despite gacha voting me?

[Shoshin]

What's the problem with saying who you targeted last night?

[Shoshin]

Scum can't directly kill me. And you knew this...

[Shoshin]

I was very clear yesterday that I had used it...

[Shoshin]

this is xyzzy, your moderator, your best friend, and your platonic life partner. we're just, like, friends and stuff!

votecount 1.21

7 players voting for Gammagooey (skitter30, SirCakez, Irrelephant11, Creature, Nosferatu, Porkens, Kokichi Oma)
2 players voting for Irrelephant11 (northsidegal, Varsoon)
2 players voting for Gamma Emerald (xRECKONERx, xRECKONERx)
1 player voting for Varsoon (Shoshin)
1 player voting for Porkens (Gammagooey)
1 player voting for xRECKONERx (Gamma Emerald)

0 players not voting for lynch

with 14 votes, it takes 8 to lynch.

4 players voting for Shoshin for Fantasy Gachapon (Irrelephant11, Gammagooey, skitter30, Gamma Emerald)
2 players voting for xRECKONERx for Fantasy Gachapon (Varsoon, xRECKONERx)
1 player voting for Kokichi Oma for Fantasy Gachapon (Kokichi Oma)
1 player voting for Gamma Emerald for Fantasy Gachapon (Shoshin)

5 players not voting for Fantasy Gachapon (northsidegal, Porkens, Nosferatu, Creature, SirCakez)

the current day will end in (expired on 2018-09-24 17:09:00)

mod notes:

UNVOTE:

kokichi did you think you were casting the hammer vote?

This feels like a pretty blatant attempt to derail a wagon on scum at L-1 onto town Kokichi. Please explain your thought process.

[Shoshin]

It looks like you were trying to indirectly suggest that Gammagooey was town... by shifting attention to Kokichi...

What was your read of Gammagooey at the time?

[Shoshin]

Skitter, what's the harm in saying who you targeted last night? I really don't understand the issue there when you have another chance to use your role tonight...

[Shoshin]

When did he claim vig?

[Shoshin]

I'm going to just go ahead and claim

I'm Jess the Beheader, and I've got a one-shot vig (ability name is Soulbound Axe). flavor is that I've got a magic axe and am a pro wrestler in the midworld wrestling foundation.

I was planning on shooting Porkens in the face tonight if he didn't get lynched, and I still think that Porkens+Cakez make the most sense as part of the scumteam given how they've played around each other and individually - assuming 3 scum I'd guess the last is somewhere in skitter/Irrelephant/GE. Gemerald I don't think is going to post enough by the end of today for me to have a solid read on him, but I'll be reading over Irrel/skitter again by the end of today (real-life day) to try to explain my feelings on them a little better.

This was after you unvoted, Skitter.

[Shoshin]

Pork, what did you do last night?

[Shoshin]

The scum are NSG & Skitter.

[Shoshin]

It sucks to be caught, Skitter. But you are caught.

[Shoshin]

Actually, Gamma targeted me with his gold protection. I know because I tracked him.

[Shoshin]

Meh, I suppose I'll just claim. Scum already know, anyway.

I switcheroo'd myself & Skitter. Yes, I was hoping scum would try to kill me so that Skitter would die.

Gamma's obviously in a position to confirm the switch, since he targeted me last night with the food. It ended up switching to Skitter. If scum tried to kill me, it also would have switched to Skitter. But my guess is that scum didn't nightkill.

[Shoshin]

Anyway, we need to lynch me (i.e. Skitter) and NSG. That should win us the game.

[Shoshin]

I lied. Gamma visited you. Which means he targeted me.

[Shoshin]

Scum probably didn't kill because they knew I had a 1-shot tracker, so they wanted to avoid getting caught. That seems fairly obvious, don't you think?

The fact that Gamma was able to prove his role means he's town 99% of the time. So I'm never never lynching Gamma's slot. Ever.

I also have strong reasons to believe Pork & Nos are town. And I have strong reasons -- behavioral reasons -- to believe Skitter & NSG are scum. If necessary, I will make cases on both.

[Shoshin]

JK doesn't confirm anyone as town/scum, and at the time, we weren't about to enter LYLO. Those two facts change everything.

Here, we were about to enter a mislynch-or-lose situation regardless of whether scum killed, so there wasn't any reason for scum to kill. In my experience, scum often don't kill in these situations because it puts them at needless risk and narrows the potential mislynches. And that's especially the case when there's a known tracker who could catch them committing the kill. If scum are remotely competent (and Skitter/NSG is at least this competent), they probably don't kill in this situation.

And even if scum killed last night, all it means is that scum targeted me for the kill, which means I'm confirmed town (as is Gamma).

[Shoshin]

Gamma's town because of his role. He confirmed it through you and NSG. And that means the scum killed Creature on the same night that Gamma gave Creature food, which just doesn't make any sense from a scum Gamma perspective because Gamma was under pressure to confirm his role. Why would scum add to the paranoia we already had about Gamma? On top of that, we now know that Gamma wasn't rb'd unless NSG lied about receiving food, which means even if Gamma is scum, we lynch NSG first, because it's very, very unlikely that Gamma's scum unless NSG is too.

[Shoshin]

lol @ NSG & Skitter

[Shoshin]

Gamma, why don't you think it's Skitter/NSG? Please review Skitter's interactions with Gammagooey on D1 (not just the way she unvoted when he was put at L-1, but everything she ever says about him and everything he ever says about Skitter - specifically the way that Skitter defends Gamma when Porkens initially votes Gamma, says Gamma is null at that point, then says Gamma is town when I suggest Gamma is town, then hops on the Gamma wagon when RC (your slot) insists that Gamma's scum, and then immediately hops off the wagon when Gamma gets to L-1 so that she can push a wagon elsewhere). I'd also like you to consider her immediate strong townread on me for reasons that don't make any sense, especially since my play in this game was completely different from my play in American Presidents, which is Skitter's only previous experience with me. That townread doesn't make any sense from a town Skitter perspective, it only makes sense from an informed perspective of someone who has a scum agenda of pocketing me. And of course look at the way she led a mislynch on Reck, was happy to see Koki die but was already trying to figure out the direction for today instead of seeing his flip (suggests she knew his flip and wanted to set things up, etc.). What's town about her? Engagement with teh game isn't a town-tell for her. There's so much hedging language from her on D1 that is distinctly not characteristic of her town play. Like, c'mon. How can she possibly be town here?

[Shoshin]

As for Pork, it's obvious he's town based on three things -- one, the simple fact that both NSG & Nos are strongly townreading him for meta reasons when at least one of those players is town (so they're telling the truth about his meta) or Pork is just town if both NSG/Nos are scum; two, the way that Pork interacted with Gammagooey on D1 just doesn't make much sense from a scum Gamma or scum Pork, as Gamma was pushing Pork's lynch (mislynch bait, remember?) and Pork jumped on Gamma for legitimate reasons; and three, NSG's point about the way Pork used his role, specifically that he created a neighborhood between three players and then scum killed one of them the next day (i.e. Creature). All of that points to Pork as town.

[Shoshin]

Nos might actually be scum. If I'm wrong about one of NSG/Skitter, it's Nos. But here's the things about Nos that make him likely town - first, the way Gammagooey townread Nos on D1 doesn't feel like scum/scum to me, if anything it looks like informed scum talking about an actual townie; second, I think the role Nos has doesn't make much sense as a scum role, because it would just give scum too much power to get switcheroo and other items, it makes much more sense as a town role that could swing the game in either direction based on how Nos uses the role; third, Nos has played in way that is just too absurdly annoying to come from scum; and finally, the whole switch from Koki onto you in the middle of D3 is a massive town-tell in light of Koki's flip as town, because scum just have no reason to be so wildly inconsistent in switching their reads on two townies for no discernible reason when both are potential mislynches, and they especially have no reason to make one of those mislynches impossible (i.e. his strong townread on Koki) -t hat inconsistency is a massive town-tell imo. Put it all together, and I just don't see Nos as scum (and yes, yesterday I said he was scum, but that was assuming that Koki would flip scum - with Koki's flip as town, it's actually the opposite).

[Shoshin]

Finally, let's talk about NSG. She led the mislynch on Irrelephant on D1, as a direct counterwagon to scum Gammagooey. She also tried getting a counterwagon to Gammagooey on Reck, who was one of RC's strongest scumreads for personal reasons rather than actual game-related reasons (look at my arguments with NSG about both Irrelephant and Reck, both of whom were town and both who I correctly read as town). On top of that, she's been a complete non-presence ini this game, and she's shown nothing close to the level of aggressive play that she showed in POkemon (where she was inactive town but still played with a lot more care about who was lynched - here, she never showed any care about who the lynch was because all the lynches were ending up on town, and the one time there was a potential lynch on scum (Gammagooey), she actually worked to get Irrelephant/Reck mislynched on D1). And, of course, now she's suddenly townreading Skitter above everyone else, suddenly, for reasons that are so obviously faked because there's actually nothing to townread about Skitter. Like, look at NSG's reasoning ("oh, skitter is town because if she's not town who is??"). And of course she goes after you and me because, well, that's all she's got left now that I'm onto her and Skitter. And of course, it's process of elimination.

[Shoshin]

I welcome thoughts from anyone who isn't NSG or Skitter to challenge what I'm saying or to point out things I'm missing about one of them. I'm fairly confident at least one of NSG or Skitter is scum, though. No way they're both town here.

[Shoshin]

It sucks to get caught, so I understand why you'd be angry/annoyed.

[Shoshin]

Okay, Skitter. If you're town, and I'm town, and Gamma is town, who are the scum? Two of NSG, Nos, or Pork? Make a case on them that's stronger than the things I have on you.

[Shoshin]

Skitter, can you post links to your scum games?

[Shoshin]

I still think the correct move is to no lynch today so that we can use gacha and items.

[Shoshin]

How much gold?

[Shoshin]

VOTE: nsg

I don't get why we're voting nsg instead of no lynching but if this is what we're doing, I want to be on this for the gold.

[Shoshin]

I also just want this game to end.

[Shoshin]

I don't understand what you want to talk about, Skitter.

Gamma is town

I'm town.

Questioning those reads isn't helpful at this point.

From your perspective, the scum are between NSG, Nos, and Pork.

From my perspective, the scum are between NSG, Nos, Pork, or you.

I have to read through your games, and until I do that, I don't really have much else to say.

Are you sure Pork is town? If so, why? If you think Pork is town, then you should be certain that NSG & Nos are scum.

[Shoshin]

@Skitter

From your perspective, Gamma should be confirmed town. So I don't understand why you keep doubting his alignment. If you're going to keep pushign the idea that Gamma could be scum, then please explain why scum Gamma would ever give food to Creature on the same night that he kills Creature.

It doesn't make any sense because gamma was under substantial pressure from Kokichi, among others, to prove himself town. If scum, Gamma faced the risk of being mislynched the following day phase, and in that situation, why would he add paranoia about his role to the mix? Like, why would scum Gamma intentionally increase the likelihood that he'd be mislynched? It makes no sense at all.

[Shoshin]

actually wait do we all think gamma is scum

can we lynch him?

Why would scum Gamma give food to Creature on the same night that he kills Creature? It doesn't make sense. Why would he intentionally increase the likelihood that he'd be mislynched?

[Shoshin]

You're getting caught up in the meaning of the word "confirmed," Skitter. In theory, nothing is ever 100% confirmed in mafia. The chance that Gamma flips town is something like 1%. The likelihood is so low that it's effectively town confirmation.

[Shoshin]

Stop being emotional, Skitter.

[Shoshin]

If you won't agree with me that Gamma's effectively confirmed town, I have no intent to cooperate with you on any level. I'm especially bothered by the way you've been keeping him open as a potential mislynch.

[Shoshin]

I can't control your vote, Skitter. That's on you.

[Shoshin]

I've been supporting a no lynch from the start of this day phase.

[Shoshin]

Skitter, the play wasn't just suboptimal, it's strongly, blatantly, and obviously anti-scum. The question is, why would scum Gamma ever intentionally act in such an obvoiusly anti-scum way? Like, use your brain. Scum don't do what Gamma did. They just don't.

[Shoshin]

I don't know what my role PM says exactly and I'm too lazy to go check that stuff. I really don't think it matters. I don't know the character I am and I don't care to check. I'm a 1-shot cop with an innocent on Gamma from N2. I used initial gacha role on Varsoon. I used roleblocker on NSG on N3. I used tracker on Gamma on N4 because I doubted my innocent result and wanted to see if he'd be caught visiting the nightkill again (after the Creature thing).

That's all.

[Shoshin]

No killing last night isn't anti-scum. It's one of the obvious moves that scum could pull.

But let's assume scum killed last night. If they did, as you seem to believe, then you must be 100% convinced that Gamma is town and that I'm town. Which begs the question, why are you voting me? And why are you so against confirming Gamma as town? Why are you so insistent on keeping us open as mislynch options?

[Shoshin]

My god, Skitter. You're scum. I'm not going to read your games. The way you're playing this is clearly scum motivated. You're ignoring the clear evidence that Gamma's town, and you're ignoring the clear evidence that I'm town. And instead, you want to keep us open as mislynch options. You can hang. I'm done wasting my time discussing this game with you.

@Nos

NSG & Skitter are the scum. What do I need to do to convince you? Please review the reasons I've provided as to why Gamma is town.

[Shoshin]

What's disturbing is Skitter's attempts to keep you open as a mislynch when the evidence so strongly shows that you're town.

[Shoshin]

Gamma, who do you think is the scum between NSG, Skitter, Nos, and Pork? I'm still not 100%. I know for sure you're town, that's it.

[Shoshin]

I don't believe you're asking these questions in good faith, Skitter. There is no double standard. When I tracked Gamma, you hadn't confirmed his role for me yet. I was doubting his role, and had paranoia that the scum was him & NSG (notice who I roleblocked on N3).

Gamma is town. Obviously town. And that should be clear to you. It became clear the moment you received food from him.

[Shoshin]

Who cares about my claim? It doesn't matter.

[Shoshin]

Skitter, do you think NSG is scum or not?

[Shoshin]

Then just lynch me, Skitter. You're either scum, or you're frustratingly narrow-minded beyond the point that I'm willing to deal with today. You're clearly not going to lynch the obvious scum in NSG. And you keep trying to cast suspicion onto obvious town Gamma. What's the point of us discussing anything?

[Shoshin]

It's like I said at the start of this day phase. The scum are NSG & Skitter. And the correct move for today, just to be safe, is no lynching.

[Shoshin]

You don't think NSG is scum? Yeah, nothing to discuss with you, Skitter.

Gamma's obvious town from the night actions, while Varsoon's roleblock clearly points to NSG as scum. And you come out saying NSG is town and Gamma scum?

C'mon, Skitter. How can you expect me to believe you're doing any of this in good faith?

[Shoshin]

Skitter acts like him presenting the crumb against nsg makes him town
No it doesn’t, in MY FIRST EVER SCUM GAME, I had the idea to present something against my buddy to distance. If that type of play occurs to me as a raw newb, it certainly could occur to skitter. That’s not a reason to clear skitter, especially in this scenario

Why would presenting the crumb against NSG make Skitter town if NSG is town in Skitter's mind? It's actually absurd.

[Shoshin]

Spoiler:

Holy fuck, Gustavo. I didn't lie. And everyone in the game agrees with me, not you. You're just blinded by your own arrogance. And you're the one who has been needlessly combative from your very first question to me. Everyone in this game agrees with me, and if it weren't for Stun, lots of people wouldn't even townread you.

But whatever. I'm pretty tired of this, so fuck it, I'm just gonna claim because I'd rather have you invested in the game in a meaningful way.

I'm a doctor. I protected you last night.

I don't know if I'm the only doctor or protective in the game so I can't guarantee that Gustavo was the nightkill, but I'm guessing he was because it just makes a lot of sense.

I voted him today to see if I could tease out some reactions from scum. Then I decided to stop doing that because it was obviously pissing Gustavo off. I didn't think he'd actually abandon the wagon on Key because of my prodding but I guess he's obsessed with me to the point of still harping on all this lying bullshit.

And with that, I'll probably die tonight. Which is okay with me, I'm getting burned out from mafia anyway.

Now, Gustavo, stop talking about me and reevaluate the game please. I actually want your input and want you invested in this.

I thought Gus was the obvious nightkill but whatever. I'm done talking to him.

Why did you protect Gustavo @Shoshin?

I was trying to predict the nightkill while protecting one of my stronger townreads. I had Gus as strong town - his slot wasn't mislynchable because Stun was widely townread, and even Gus alone was strong town to me because his play was so different from his scum game. I also thought he expressed a strong desire to move on from D1 in a way that made me think scum would target him as a nightkill because scum tend to mistake that as a PR-tell.

In case this wasn't obvious to anyone, the reason I claimed was to try working with Gustavo. But he still doesn't want to stop tunneling me or reevaluate anything, so please address any issues you have about that to him.

ok this is what shoshin claiming looked like the last time i played with her

Who cares? My claim doesn't matter to anyone's alignment. In that game, I claimed with a specific purpose without any pressure from anyone to do so. In other words, I claim when there's a purpose to doing so, regardless of pressure. I don't claim when it's pointless, like here, because it's just a waste of time and effort.

[Shoshin]

@Skitter

You're ignoring a key piece of evidence when evaluating Gamma. Don't ignore any piece. This is why Gamma is town.

Gamma came under substantial pressure on D3. He was almost lynched. He struggled to prove his role because he gave the food to NSG and lots of people (myself included) were suspicious of that claim (yes, I don't care about investigative results - you can check my previous games to check that point - innocents/guilties are too eaisly manipulated in my experience). Now, that's the backdrop for Gamma's actions on N3.

Let's assume Gamme is scum. On N3, he was under significant pressure to prove his role because he had come under so much pressure. His #1 goal would have been to avoid getting lynched. His #1 goal wouldn't have been killing Creature, who wasn't even a major threat to him (his biggest threats were players like Nos or Kokichi or even Pork, who was kind of a wildcard and would join any major wagon). But, instead of pursuing his goals (proving his role, killing a threat to his lynch), Gamma chooses not to prove his role by killing the same player that he gives food to. He also chooses to kill someone who isn't as large a threat to his life (Creature, rather than someone like Nos or Pork). From a scum perspective, the likelihood that Gamma makes this decision is very low. Like 1%. It's probability, Skitter. It's very UNLIKELY that Gamma makes this choice, in light of the substantial pressure that he faced on D3.

It's not just that Gamma gave food to the nightkill. It's WHEN he did that, and the surrounding circumstnaces of his chocie to do that, at a time when his role wasn't clearly proven and he was facing a lot of pressure and risk of lynching.

As for your claim that it doens't confirm him, you're right that it doesn't 100% confirm him. But nothing is 100% in mafia. We're talking about probabiilty. The point is that it's very UNLIKELY that he'd ever make that choice as scum.

Think about PROBABILITY here. Not POSSIBILITY. The issue is the probability that Gamma is scum/town. It's 99% that he's town here because it's so unlikely that scum, in Gamma's positoin, would choose the night actions he did.

[Shoshin]

i still don't understand why she:
a) checked gamma if she was townreading rc
b) tracked gamma later

a) I checked Gamma because there were some iffy interactions between RC and Gammagooey, interactions I haven't brought up yet because of the inno result. RC pushes on Gammagooey but he's also pushing for lynches on people who aren't Gammagooey, so I had this feeling he was distancing.

b) As I already explained, I tracked Gamma because of my paranoia that the scumteam was NSG & Gamma. I roleblocked NSG, but that didn't lead to anything. So at that point, I stuck with my read on Kokichi. Then Koki flipped town. At that point, I had some serious concerns that Gamma & NSG were scum, and that Gamma had faked his role and that's why he was unable to prove his role by "killing" Creature. That's a "concern," not a statement of knowledge. I'm talking about the motivating factor behind my track. I wanted to be sure about Gamma. I also knew that Creature was the one doing the nightkill if they were both scum, because I had previously roleblocked NSG. So, I wasn't planning to track NSG. I townread Nos after Koki's flip. My choice for the track was between you, Gamma, and Pork. Gamma was the person I was most paranoid about, and also the person I was closest to townreading, so I just wanted to ease my paranoia so that I could go into xylo with at least one strong townread.

[Shoshin]

i can believe that you strongly believed that
i don't understand why you tracked him the next night then

Gamma's alignment doesn't turn on why I tracked him. You need to read Gamma on his own terms. I'm giving you the exact reasons why Gamma is town. You seem unable to accept the strong probabilistic evidence. Why?

[Shoshin]

ok why were you most paranoid of him if you had an inno result on him? this is the part i'm not following

Because results alone are very weak evidence. How many times do I have to say this? In my first town game on this site, I was investigated guilty despite being town. I was mislynched.

I've seen countless games where investigative results were wrong. I don't trust them. Period.

[Shoshin]

I do trust Varsoon saying he roleblocked NSG, no nightkill happening, and Gammagooey immediately killing him to prevent him from telling us who he roleblocked. That set of events is strongly indicative that NSG is scum.

[Shoshin]

Like, that's night/day vs me getting an innocent result on someone that could be a godfather or lawyered or when I could have been redirected or bus drove whatever.

[Shoshin]

ok why were you most paranoid of him if you had an inno result on him? this is the part i'm not following

I was most paranoid of you & NSG, but I knew NSG wasn't committing the nightkill based on the roleblock, and I decided that clearing Gamma was more important that checking you because he was still under a lot of pressure to be lynched, especially after Koki's flip.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: no lynch

Gacha vote: myself

[Shoshin]

Why is NSG town?

[Shoshin]

I don't follow what you're saying on RC. What'd he misread? Can you quote the specific things that make you think he's scum and explain?

[Shoshin]

Cool. What happened with the 1-shot cop from skitter?

[Shoshin]

Also, any tracking results?

[Shoshin]

Gamma, did you get the 1-shot cop?

[Shoshin]

What are your results?

[Shoshin]

Gamma, who did you give food to?

[Shoshin]

VOTE: NSG

Pork, what's the result of the cop?

[Shoshin]

Okay, cool, give me gachapon. Lunch nsg.

Gachapon vote: myself

This way, scum have to choose between us for the kill and one of us will be able to do something useful.

[Shoshin]

Please give me gachapon, not Nos.

[Shoshin]

Gamma, please vote me for gacha.

[Shoshin]

friendly reminder this is the same person who called skitter caught scum a dayphase ago

lol what's your point?

[Shoshin]

I made one wrong statement... like, who cares? You've made plenty of wrong statements too... and mislynched multiple players...

[Shoshin]

I don't trust that Nos is town.

[Shoshin]

btw skitter's death means that scum tried to kill me last night, in case that wasn't obvious...

Like, why would scum kill skitter? That's just dumb. They were trying to kill me.

[Shoshin]

Gamma, please give me gacha.

If you're town, it should be clear to you that I'm town as well, and that means from your perspective the last scum is between Nos/Pork.

So give me gacha.

[Shoshin]

I'm also in a neighborhood with Porkens, so that puts me in a better position to coordinate night actions with him after the gacha item. Like, if I get a 1-shot cop, we can make sure we investigate different players.

If there's a doc, the doc should be on one of me or Pork.

[Shoshin]

You have enough gold to use doc, Nos?

[Shoshin]

Why'd you give the boost to Gamma? I thought he was your top scumread... WTF?

[Shoshin]

If Gamma is scum, he will switcheroo tonight, making our life very difficult tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

How much gold does Pork have currently?