Here's the truth of this game:
Scum haven't been dying at night. They've been leaving.
I first private messaged Jingle about this over two weeks ago.
Hm. Two possibilities in my mind here – one is that "townspersons" are actually scum while "innocent evil people" are the town. That would explain DLA scumclaiming after his lynch but flipping town (unless he was just twilight trolling, but that seems unlikely to me). I would, however, be impressed that town had managed to lynch scum two days in a row.
The second possibility would be that this is some kind of extradition mafia where mafia win after they all escape. It would make sense with the flavor of "leaving the town", and from what little i've read it might make sense Robert leaving n1 after Thor said to definitely lynch him with his dying breath. That doesn't explain DLA scumclaiming and flipping town, and if it were true I would also expect scum kills to be compulsive for EV purposes, unless there were other types of power roles.
So, still not really sure!
Jingle wrote:Robert2424, an
Innocent Evil Person
, (Mafia Goon), has left the town Night 1.
Jingle wrote:joges, an
Innocent Evil Person
, (Mafia Goon), has left the town Night 2.
It was only a theory then, but it's all but confirmed in my mind now – something which I tend to try and avoid, but which I believe is warranted here.
First, let's look at how realistic it actually is that this is the work of the vigilante. In my mind, all of the evidence points towards scum not actually being killed at night:
- Scum are listed as having "left the town", not as having been killed.
- It has
always
been the scum member under the most heat that's been the one "killed" at night. Robert just barely gets lynched over Thor Day 1, and then immediately "leaves".
- There's already been one utterly false vigilante claim. I didn't believe it when A50 claimed it and had I been able to replace in yesterday I would have pushed for his immediate lynch. Yes, it's possible that someone who's claiming to be vig here is just
really
good in a game with a lot of scum. Occam's razor says that that isn't the case.
- This game was advertised in the Mini Theme queue as being based around "nonstandard mechanics [and] winconditions".
In post 5737, Jingle wrote:Flavor/Mechanics: A flavor light setup containing nonstandard mechanics, winconditions, and a strong emphasis on dayplay. Limited reveals, role name and alignment only.
- So far, the only "nonstandard" thing we've seen has been scum being the only ones to die at night. This isn't the work of just a normal vigilante role. If it is, then what's the "nonstandard" element to the setup at all? No, this is what the setup is designed around.
To figure it out, all you need to do is take a look at mith's
Extradition Mafia. Each night, the Mafia chooses one member to "escape". The Mafia wins when all of the Mafia goons escape, and the town wins when just one member of the Mafia is lynched. Now, there are a few key differences that between this setup and that one, and corresponding explanations for all of them:
Differences:
- This is a closed setup rather than an open one. While scum presumably began the game with knowledge of what was going on, town was left in the dark and, from what I can gather, is
still
in the dark on what I believe is very likely the last day of the game.
- The scumteam has not been killing a townie each night in addition to escaping. In mith's version, the scum nightkill is compulsive for EV reasons. It actually
benefits
town EV wise for scum to kill a member, simply because of the "lynch one scum to win" town win condition.
Presumably, both of these differences would massively scumside the setup. How can these be explained? It's simple: the number of scum. There are 4 scum already flipped and, given that the game is still going on, presumably a 5th. Mith's version was balanced around only 3 scum. The fact that scum has to deal with having all 5 (I presume it's only 5) members of the team escape without a single scum lynch is what balances out the other advantages afforded to them. With their high numbers they likely control dayplay and it would require a near unanimous town agreement to lynch one of them. In exchange, they face one mistake or one bad member being able to completely take down the entire team.
Look at the town win condition. It isn't "you win when all threats to the town are eliminated". It's "You win when all other winconditions become impossible to achieve." The scum wincondition is very likely "have all of your members escape without a single one being lynched".
That's
why town doesn't win when all threats to the town are eliminated.
Because we only need to eliminate one.
So, what does this all mean?
What does that mean? Well, unfortunately...
